Basil Beamish for Climate Commissioner
Posted by Koala Bear, May 18th, 2012 - under Information.
Tags: Climate & Climate Change
I’ve been reading about the Commission: the Climate Commission established to provide all Australians with an independent and reliable source of information about the science of climate change.
Two of the commissioners, Professors Will Steffan and Lesley Hughes, have just published a report stating that New South Wales is becoming hotter and heatwaves will become more severe.
My name is Mr Koala Bear and I’ve been studying their report ‘The Critical Decade: New South Wales Climate Impacts and Opportunities’. And that is not what the data says, not all the data.
Scientist Basil Beamish begins at the beginning. He has plotted climate data for two sites in NSW for which there is data back to 1890: Bathurst (pink line in chart) and Observatory Hill (blue line in chart). One of these is an inland site and one is coastal. One is to the east of Parramatta, the site favoured by the Cimate Commissioners and one is to the west.
This data suggests that that it was hotter back in the period 1910 to 1930. It was indeed very hot at Bathurst in 1919 with more than 31 days above 35.0°C (pink line in chart). At Observatory Hill, the hottest year measured by days above 35.0°C was 1926 (blue line in chart).
If Professor Steffan and Hughes are going to make statements about temperatures trends they have an obligation to consider all the instrumental data that is available. I mean they have an obligation to begin at the beginning, not 1960 as they do in their very misleading report.
I am not keen on the idea of counting day above 35.0 °C by calendar year as a measure of global warming. A problem is that the calendar year separates the hot months in each summer; it arbitrarily splits this one discrete period into two repeatedly. But never mind, if the Commissioners want to do this they can. But they must start at the beginning.
Professors Hughes and Steffan have no business being Climate Commissioners.
I want to start a petition: Basil Beamish for Climate Commissioner!
************
Support independent media. Make a donation so Jen and I (Mr Koala Bear) can get this website a makeover. I want some new buttons linking to my Facebook site and also a petition for Basil Beamish for Climate Commissioner.
Send dollars here by bank transfer:
Jennifer Marohasy
BSB 06 4449
Account Number 10376039
There’s a Fahrenheit/Celsius fractional distribution audit of all ACORN-SAT stations at http://www.waclimate.net/round/australia-acorn.html and also an analysis of the new BoM dataset by Ken Stewart at http://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2012/05/14/acorn-sat-a-preliminary-assessment/
What a cop out. Refuse to answer the question eh ? Worried you’ll you’ll be trapped eh? Sorry Treasury wants to know. And you’re outvoted by a increasingly belligerent disconnected suburbia – expect no favours and a reducing interest. But Bazza and I are on your side – you just haven’t got there yet.
At some point Debs you would learn more from indulging a discussion – well at least in an exchange of views. I won’t be coming around to collect or anything.
Enjoy the implications of http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/05/another-fingerprint/#bib_1 (from the empirical obs !)
Excuse me?
Where did I cop out Luke?
Why am I getting a lecture all of a sudden?
I’m not worried about being trapped Luke….I thought we actually were having a civil discussion…for a nice change.
Were you attempting to trap me?
You have thrown that one up many many times and I always always answer in the same manner and with the same supplementary question….except for the very very first time when I did indeed take a swipe because I found the tone of the question rather offensive….not my usual MO…and I apologise for way back whenever that was.
All I did really was try to qualify why you keep asking that one and perhaps gently move you accross to some better questions that we could civilly discuss.
So in all fairness….seriously….who’s actually copping out here?
Was that your only problem with my last post….why didn’t you comment on the rest of what I wrote?
Why have we suddenly moved on to new topics?
I thought you were more interested in the probability question…..3,3,4… 4,2,4.
Was that answer OK?
Do you work for treasury?
Are you positive that’s what they want to know?
I believe (with all due respect) that treasury has done those sums and they’re reasonably comfortable with the side Agriculture lands on the ledger….and find Agriculture a good investment.
It is after all the second best GDP earner in OZ….consistently….even, paradoxically, in the middle of the millenium drought….admittedly a long way behind mining….but also a fair way ahead of the others.
But feel free to disagree….but if you keep wanting to ask that question….just explain what’s wrong with the sums.
In the interest of this discussion Luke even though you have inexplicably introduced radical new (and IMHO totally irrelevant) material….why would suburbia be getting increasingly belligerent and disconnected? (Of course you’re correct…they are…but I don’t believe it’s me they’re angry with and it’s not me they’re voting against)
Has that got anything to do with the science/agriculture/what we were discussing, or, is it maybe something else entirely?
And Luke….I don’t have a comprehension problem….I’m non plussed that you are talking about sides. What is my side that you’re on? What haven’t I got to yet? I have no idea what you are inferring here….none….nada….zippo….
I have always said that I find much of the climate science useful….but….some of the projective work is being used inappropriately by the politics….and the results of that behaviour are not pretty.
The latest example being the way our CCs used the report that has been highlighted in this post.
What else do you want from me?
Is it to do with science or Agriculture or statistics?
Jeez Debs – I was simply hoping that you might explore the notion of when would an institution handing out Exceptional Circumstances funds (that’s exceptional !! including Gulf of Carpentaria floods and mouse plagues too) would think that for climate at least – things had changed. All bets are off. Probabilities are worse than we think. The last 120 years is no indicator of the next 120 years in terms of variation.
Simply an exploration of your views of how one would answer such a question.
Not that it matters so much now after http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/201203/s3454127.htm
And ROFL http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/201205/s3509826.htm
I’m not sure what you think those reports prove Luke,
1st one just says that the drought aid is over because there is no longer any drought declared areas.
2nd one is pure speculation and very amusing because we have also been told the exact opposite on many occaisions.
I also notice you have decided to ignore everything else we were discussing.
Don’t you want to answer my questions?
Did I do OK with the probability question?
Why did you introduce the increasingly belligerent and disconnected suburbia?
How can you be certain that the last 120 years are no indication for the next?
If the probabilities are worse than we think (which doesn’t make sense BTW) what do you want farmers to do about it?
It appears that you want me to start panicking about something that I can’t really change.
As far as managing risk goes, I can really only work with what I can change.
What do you think Australia expects from Agriculture?
It still appears to me that you don’t think we have anything worthwhile to offer.
I don’t believe that’s the case.
I’m on Deb’s side too.
While watching this thread go 100 + without my help (and too busy elsewhere) some old issues have returned to msm; projected downturn for aluminium smelting in oz being the latest but let’s consider the relevance of agricultural subsidies first. I perceive a drift between city dwellers and the bush is affecting our culture.
Last night I gave one grand daughter a big lecture on the phone about self driven nutrition programs for young adults at college or job seekers away from home after she admitted attendance failure due to long running minor illness had interrupted her school studies. I seems about a dozen of her kin also didn’t have regular fruit or veg in their diet so I recommended every one watch “River Cottage” too. But my folk are not city dwellers, so where did I go wrong? I t has to be other media driven peer pressure.
http://shop.abc.net.au/products/river-cottage-treatment
For decades I have campaigned against grand subsidy for industry where we taxpayers have little or no control of global manufacturing strategies. We had bizarre completion between states in building infrastructure to give away power for aluminium, chemical, pulp & paper, steel and vehicle production however home grown research in these industries has been jerky to say the least.
If we don’t own the industry in some part, nothing saves our jobs in the end. So Deb, who has a slice of yours?
Which one Gavin?
I produce for several different industries.
If you’re talking about foreign ownership, where are the policies, (in particular relevance to this post which is about climate change policy) that are protecting us from foreign ownership?
How is this political obsession with weather/climate protecting any of our industries from foreign ownership?
Agricultural or otherwise?
Luke you say “No there’s only one possible cause for recent warming unless you believe in fairies “ and yet, NASA and other reports suggest at least 40% of the 20th century warming was solar based, on top of that we know that human activity such as land clearing, land use and urban heat effects have also contributed in part to recent pleasant warming. On top of that we also know that just a 1% change in cloud cover is all that’s required to account for the mild change we have seen. We also know that it is acknowledged that clouds are poorly understood. Couple that with ocean currents and our improving but still limited understanding…..and your comment screams how rusted onto the dogma of co2 that you are.
Following the Russian’s recent report suggesting temp will cool further over the next decade or so, it seems that we should be thankful for recent warming. Because almost everybody agrees that marginal warming is more beneficial than cooling!?
So given that all the models predict much higher warming than is being seen and none predicted a stasis in temp for the last decade…it doesn’t look good for believers in co2 leading to 2-5c temp increases by the end of the century …does it?…..you Alarmist!!
Chris,
Thanks for those links.
It appears that Ken Stewart has already done a lot of the legwork that Basil was going to do as far as checking the ACORN SAT data goes?
Seems as usual that variability rules?
Russian research eh ….ooooooo I see.
BTW Gavin,
can you explain how that cottage idea would enable us to feed all those people who don’t even posses a garden because they live in CBDs?
Farmers would have no probs doing that, neither would hobby farmers, but if it was the over riding philosophy, a lot of people would starve.
Many millions live and work where they can’t grow their own, not just because they don’t have the room but because the area doesn’t have the right climatic/soil/seasonal/hydrology etc conditions.
I like the idea for myself, already do that, but in that respect I’m fortunate. I can actually produce extra for those who can’t.
Some of those also produce and manufacture what I can’t.
Usually works OK.
[...] ************************************* 1. Basil Beamish for Climate Commissioner, May 18th, 2012. http://jennifermarohasy.com/2012/05/basil-beamish-for-climate-commissioner/ [...]