Australian Rainfall Trends
Many false claims are made about the state of our environment on an almost daily basis but because many Australians are illiterate when it comes to science and maths, they are mostly just accepted. For example there is a widespread perception that the east coast of Australia has suffered declining rainfall, a claim also made by Sir Nicholas Stern in his influential report to the British Parliament in October 2006.
Data on rainfall for the entire east coast of Australia is available from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology with yearly averages back to 1900. When this data if graphed, contrary to the Stern report and popular perceptions, it does not show declining rainfall. It shows rainfall was low in the early 1900s and that there were some very wet years in the 1950s and 1970s. When simple linear and quadratic trend lines are fitted to the data, they show an overall slight increase, not decrease, in rainfall during the past 107 years (click here for more information).
Global Temperature Trends
A large number of influential people, including Australia's Minister for Climate Change and Water, Penny Wong, are claiming that global temperatures are continuing to increase and that the last decade has been the hottest ever.
The claim that global temperatures are the hottest ever is plain wrong, and ignores the Medieval Warm Period of just 1,000 years ago; including previous interglacial warm periods when temperatures were warmer than they are now. For example, the presence of marine fossils in parts of inland Australia is evidence that large areas were once flooded when sea levels were higher than they are now and the planet much warmer.
It is also incorrect to suggest global temperatures continue to show warming. Over the last 10 years there has been a breakdown in what was a close correlation between increasing levels of carbon dioxide and increasing global temperatures.
Indeed, while carbon dioxide levels have continued to increase, global temperatures peaked in 1998 then dropped, then plateaued and are falling again now. This is evident from the satellite data which has been collected by NASA since 1979, and also from thermometer data from the Hadley Centre at the UK Meteorology Bureau.
It may, of course, start warming again next year, and it is worth remembering that there has been a general warming trend for the last 18,000 years and that over this period sea levels have risen by about 100 metres.
The above charts are from Dr Roy Spencer. You can read more about his work, including how weather systems are compensating for the additional carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, by clicking here . The mark-up in red on the above graph is from this blog regarding Al Gore.
The blog associated with this website (www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog) has a lot of information on global warming. Recent posts on temperature trends include: 'Join the Bloggers: Check the Temperature Data' posted on July 30, 2008, and 'Measuring Global Temperatures' posted on July 8, 2008. There is also a blog post with a list of Ten of the Best Climate Research Papers (nine peer-reviewed) that dispute the AGW theory.
Some Popular Reports & Articles by Jennifer Marohasy
The Australian Government is planning to introduce an emissions trading scheme, also described as a carbon pollution reduction scheme, on the basis that that carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels is contributing to dangerous global warming. Many people assume that such a drastic action is premised on good evidence establishing a proven causal link between anthropogenic carbon dioxide and global warming. But it is not: Case of the Warm and Fuzzy, The Australian, August 23, 2008.
When the Minister for Climate Change and Water, Penny Wong, recently announced that there was insufficient water in upstream dams to flood the lakes at the end of the Murray River, ABC Online ran with the headline "Government says the Murray's Lower Lakes can’t be saved." But that's not what she said, and furthermore the lower lakes can be saved. The Murray River is at far greater risk and the solution for the river is not nearly as simple: Saving the Coorong by restoring its native state, Online Opinion, August 14, 2008.
John Howard was Prime Minister of Australia for more than 10 years during which period there was a significant increase in funding for environmental initiatives. Despite this Mr Howard may simply be remembered as the man who failed to ratify the Kyoto Protocol: John Howard Environmentalist, IPA Review, December 2007.
As sea levels rise coral reefs can keep growing up, it is when sea levels fall that coral reefs are left high and dry: Reef may benefit from global warming, The Australian, January 31, 2007.
Let's acknowledge that the Murray River is an old river, running through a semi-arid environment and accept it as such. Let's not pretend it should be, or ever was, fresh, blue and always brimming with water: On Saving the Murray River, Counterpoint, May 22, 2006.
A critical review of the chapter on Australia in Jared Diamond's book Collapse, showing that many of his claims of environmental degradation are not supported by the available evidence: Australia's Environment Undergoing Renewal Not Collapse, Energy and Environment, Volume 16, 2005.
If it is true to say: "if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it", then koala conservation is far from secure: Are Koala's in Decline, IPA Review, June 2005.
Why is it that the International Whaling Commission (IWC) condones the slaughter of rare whales by indigenous peoples using what are arguably inhumane traditional methods, while ruling against the commercial harvest of more common species by more humane methods:No science and no respect in Australia's anti-whaling campaign, Online Opinion, July 2005.
A critical review of The Australian newspaper's 'Save the Murray' Campaign: Why "Save The Murray"?, Quadrant Magazine, December 2004 - Volume XLVIII Number 12.
How to redefine environmentalism in accordance with modern theories of evolutionary biology, and in accordance with policies that will deliver tangible environmental benefits: Time to Redefine Environmentalism, IPA Review, December 2004.
Predetermined beliefs rather than science are driving public policy on environmental issues, warns Jennifer Marohasy in Environmental Fundamentalism , Policy, Vol. 20, No. 3, Spring 2004.
This report challenged conventional thinking on the Murray River and influenced national water policy: Myth and the Murray: Measuring the Real State of the River Environment, IPA Backgrounder, December 2003.
Why was the allegation of pesticide in dugongs included in the original summary report? Why was the allegation not corrected after I brought the error to Dr Baker’s attention in December 2002: Deceit in the Name of Conservation, IPA Review, March 2003.
Other Articles by Jennifer Marohasy
Jennifer's opinion pieces in e-journal Online Opinion are listed here. Her columns from The Land newspaper are listed here. Leave a comment at her popular 'Politics and the Environment' blog founded in April 2005. Some of her more recent pieces in the IPA Review can be found here.
You can read about Jennifer here and about her blog here.
There is a lot of information on the Murray River if you scroll down the blog at this link and to see how low water levels have been in the Murray visit the Wikipedia associated with this website, specifically click on this page.
A Book
Jennifer is currently writing a book on the ongoing Buyat bay saga where a gold mining company is accused of poisoning villagers and fringing coral reef in North Sulawesi, Indonesia.
An article entitled 'Politics and the Environment in Indonesia' written by Jennifer was published by the IPA in July 2007 and provides an introduction to the saga.
Retraction and Apology
Jennifer made a full public apology to the Australian Rainforest Foundation and its Chief Executive Officer, Roger Phillips, in relation to comments under an entry on her blog site etitled 'Daintree Compensation'.
Recent Newspaper Opinion PiecesSo many things are blamed on global warming. A quick internet search of reported repercussions just beginning with ‘p’, includes psychiatric illness, puffin decline, plankton blooms, polar bears drowning, polar bears cannibalistic and polar bears deaf.
Read more... So much of government policy is now about reducing carbon emissions on the basis that the earth is heating-up.
But measuring the earth’s temperature is not easy.
Read more... How many times have you heard it said, the science is settled, we will have catastrophic global warming unless we change our ways and reduce our greenhouse gas emissions?
Read more... There has been much written about Australia’s national character emerging from a bush ethos – the idea that a specifically Australian outlook emerged first amongst workers in the Australian outback. But few now have anything much to do with the bush. They mostly live in cities, or close to the beach, and spend holiday time on the coast.
However, the concept there is an outback still looms large and successive federal governments have claimed they can save it.
Read more...
The Federal Government’s climate change advisor, Professor Ross Garnaut, has suggested that reducing sheep and cattle numbers and replacing them with 175 million farmed kangaroos would help to dramatically reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. This is because ruminant animals, like sheep and cattle, produce methane which is a potent greenhouse gas. But of course there are other forms of agriculture that produce methane, in particular rice agriculture. Furthermore, we all know that there are a lot of Chinese and they eat a lot of rice. In the scheme of things, if Australians are to give up their lamb chops then perhaps there should also be some pressure brought to bear on the Chinese to stop eating rice.
Read more... |
