Subarctic Temperatures (Part 3): A Note from Nichole Hoskin
Posted by Nichole Hoskin, November 29th, 2008 - under News, Opinion.
Tags: Climate & Climate Change
Churchill is a town in subarctic Canada surrounded by the most studied polar bear population in the world. Polar bears are believed to be under threat from global warming.
On Thursday, Jennifer Marohasy, posted a note stating:
“It is warming in Churchill. At least thermometer temperature data from both Environment Canada and NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) indicate that it has been warmer since 1998 – but the annual mean is still below zero!”
Dr Marohasy was basing this assessment on annual mean temperature values for Churchill compiled by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) back to 1884 and Environment Canada back to 1929.
Dr Marohasy also commented:
“I’m also curious to know why the GISS data for this site shows an annual average that is consistently warmer than the Environment Canada data. And why the data gaps? There is no GISS data for Churchill from 1994 to 1996 and also from 1911 to 1931? And why the step change in temperature since 1998 - I didn’t know the Arctic was influenced by El Nino events?”
I cannot help with Dr Marohasy’s last two questions, however, by excluding all the estimated values from nearby weather stations in the Environment Canada data, and by excluding years with missing months from the GISS data, the annual averages are not generally warmer for the GISS data.
I suggest that my plot of the GISS data (Chart 2), which is based on monthly averages (as opposed to seasonal averages as per the GISS website) and excluding all years for which there is not an average for each month, is the ‘best’ available temperature data series showing ‘annual means’ for Churchill.
Chart 1.
(Click on the image for a larger view.)
Chart 2.
(Click on the image for a larger view.)
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59 Responses to “Subarctic Temperatures (Part 3): A Note from Nichole Hoskin”
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A couple things. First there appears to be a step change around the year 2000.
We know from Anthony Watt’s blog that GISS uses the local weather station record to develop it’s product, so in all likelyhood these are one and the same readings, from the same equipment.
Notice the two discontinuities, the first in the 30’s, the second in the 90’s. Both records.
So we know something happened to the thing around 93-94 ish.
So what we want to do next is examine the station history to look for station moves.
I did a google of Churchill weather station and found this picture
of a fellow setting up a weather station. It’s dated 2005.
Maybe they’re modernizing?
At any rate 2005 is off our charts, so it’s no good for us. But as luck would have it the next picture is of Alex H. reading the local paper in the outdoor john.
They have a local paper with a website called The Hudson Bay Post.
There I found out the local weather is minus eight degrees c, and that the weather station is at the airport.
Could it be that the Churchill airport was built in the 1990’s? Maybe.
But they are always resurfaceing it due to the ice cracks on the tarmac.
Another thing I found out, and this is really interesting, from a story in the HBP titled Hudson Bay & Climate Change I discovered that there are accurate temperature measurements for Churchill dating back to the 1700’s, complete with snow fall and precip readings, wind speed and direction, and general discriptions of the weather conditions.
The old timers really focused on weather there since it was a matter of life and death I suppose.
Sure would like to get a look at those.
Hey James,
There is a link to a chart of the early temp records here: http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/11/earliest-temperature-records-from-near-the-north-pole/
Oh hey.
You already hashed this stuff out? Man you are good.
So we had global warming in the 1820’s, 1880’s, and possibly between 1915-22.
Did you by any chance send an email out to Churchill to see if some kind soul out that way could take a pic of the airport weather station?
See I was thinking of doing that, but you’re three steps ahead of me so…
Look at Mayeau go …
Jen you may have some records - but recorded exactly where and how? What standards.
Has the station moved. What enclosures were the instrument(s) in and what exactly were they?
All the stuff that Anthony Watts would go on about (but now in reverse for you guys)
Lots of airports in the 1820s?
So we are approximately where Eli suggested Jen start, and the issues have really narrowed. The next thing is to locate the metadata for Churchill (there may be more than one station mixed in there) and figure out how station moves, equipment changes and such are compensated for (homoginization). It’s fairly easy to find that stuff for the USHCN stations, but EC is more opaque netwise.
Hey. Hang on a minute!
http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/11/earliest-temperature-records-from-near-the-north-pole/
This chart of early temperatures around Churchill suggests that it might well have been warmer there several times in the 19th century than it is today on the bloody tarmac! Of course, as Luke points out no telling where they put they put weather stations in those days, perhaps too close to the dogsled parking lot.
So Eli’s right–the issue has really narrowed to the point it’s pretty hard to obfuscate the fact that even with the dramatic rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration in the last 50 years today’s temperature in what should be one of the most rapidly warming regions of the Earth is still well with in historically measured norms. But Eli is gonna give it a go anyway. Lend a hand with the shovel, Luke?
This reminds me of those pesky Viking dairy farmers in Greenland, they proved pretty bloody hard to homogenize into opaqueness too, netwise.
Anyone recall the definition of a hypothesis that fails to make useful predictions?
Or perhaps Wessy - maybe the thermometer was on a dark wood cabin wall or in a darker wooden box? Do you know? Obviously you haven’t done much work with old met data have you. For example in Australia there’s a about a lot of difference moving between different recording enclosures.
e.g. “Temperature records were recorded in Adelaide using both Stevenson Screens and a Glaisher stand from 1887 on. Glaisher stands were open to the south, and so influenced by reflected radiation, and often measured several degrees higher than the completely enclosed Stevenson screen, currently in use, and accepted as the standard for enclosure of temperature recording instruments for many years.”
So Wes, you can lend a hand to the shovel and look up the nearby data records and corroborating information instead of just flying kites. In fact Wes I think your factual data contributions here are well in the red.
e.g. “Temperature records were recorded in Adelaide using both Stevenson Screens and a Glaisher stand from 1887 on. Glaisher stands were open to the south, and so influenced by reflected radiation, and often measured several degrees higher than the completely enclosed Stevenson screen, currently in use, and accepted as the standard for enclosure of temperature recording instruments for many years.”
Luke,
Care to elaborate on that?
That much variation would need a mirror reflecting the sun directly onto the thermometer.
My experience with outside thermometers exposed to the south is always a lower reading. And that’s in Qld.
Talk about fact-free, Luke, that sounds like one of those “skanky denialist arguments” proscribed by the RC Wiki thought police and ripped off from Anthony Watts, a bloke you, btw, have so politically correctly dismissed as a tosser umpteen times in the past.
Hypocrisy to be sure, but we’ll give you a pass since you tried to use complete sentences.
Nevertheless, as Eli says the wiggle room here has gotten real narrow. We got Vikings in the dairy business a couple of degrees to north and 2,000 miles to the East in the MWP, and now we have a T record from the 19th century that implies cooling from the MWP yet it’s still has spells warmer than a modern airport tarmac station, which has been adjusted upward by GISS to boot.
OK, run that AGW apocalyptic warming hypothesis by me again, ’cause the hypo ain’t jiving with the facts, mate. 1c here or there isn’t gonna salvage your big hopes for climatological second coming by 2050. I’m from the old school, you know, where for a hypothesis to be convincing has to bear some direct relationship to observations and make useful predictions. Soooo, old fashion, I know.
Where’s Eli? How’s he hangin’ on that opaque homo equipment movement angle?
Also, mate, it’s not my job (or anyone’s for that matter) to disprove the AGW Apocalypse hypothesis. The burden of proof is upon the acolytes of the hypothesis to convince us, so mate, here’s yer shovel back. Jeez, talk about kids these day not understanding even the most fundamental rules of scientific methodology! Keep digging.
And while we are up here in the SUB-arctic, how about those Vikings, eh? Dairy cattle in Greenland. How’d they do that? Must have been those Glaisher stands.
“The Greenland Vikings lived mostly on dairy produce and meat, primarily from cows. The vegetable diet of Greenlanders included berries, edible grasses, and seaweed, but these were inadequate even during the best harvests. During the MWP, Greenland’s climate was so cold that cattle breeding and dairy farming could only be carried on in the sheltered fiords. The growing season in Greenland even then was very short. Frost typically occurred in August and the fiords froze in October. Before the year 1300, ships regularly sailed from Norway and other European countries to Greenland bringing with them timber, iron, corn, salt, and other needed items. Trade was by barter. Greenlanders offered butter, cheese, wool, and their frieze cloths, which were greatly sough after in Europe, as well as white and blue fox furs, polar bear skins, walrus and narwhal tusks, and walrus skins. In fact, two Greenland items in particular were prized by Europeans: white bears and the white falcon. These items were given as royal gifts. For instance, the King of Norway-Denmark sent a number of Greenland falcons as a gift to the King of Portugal, and received in return the gift of a cargo of wine (Stefansson, 1966.) Because of the shortage of adequate vegetables and cereal grains, and a shortage of timber to make ships, the trade link to Iceland and Europe was vital (Hermann, 1954.)”
Not quite a tropical paradise.