Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said. Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a “lull” for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The average temperature of the sea around Europe and North America is expected to cool slightly over the decade while the tropical Pacific remains unchanged. This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has been predicted for the next decade by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the scientific journal Nature.
UK Telegraph: Global warming may ‘stop’, scientists predict
BBC News website: Next decade ‘may see no warming’
Nature: Climate change: Natural ups and downs
Editor’s Summary: Decadal climate prediction
Warming Antarctic waters begin to cool
Antarctica’s deep ocean waters are getting colder after years of warming, say researchers who have just returned from a Southern Ocean voyage aboard the German research vessel Polarstern.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Who knows what the temperature will do over the next 7 years. But if it really doesn’t rise by 2015 that will mean 15 years of no AGW at all – which will destroy the credibility of 5C temperature increases by 2100.
Since there are likely to be more press reports like this over the next few months, it will be a great fun hearing what Gore and the spin doctors make of it.
I may even start visiting RealClimate again.
Paul: Ive been waiting for this thread. Perhaps we can take a brake too
The green crocodile never takes a break – feeding it is never enough – it needs to eat you!
I’m reminded of Tsonis et al:
In the mid-1970s, a climate shift cooled sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean and warmed the coast of western North America, bringing long-range changes to the northern hemisphere. After this climate shift waned, an era of frequent El Ninos and rising global temperatures began.
Tsonis et al. have investigated the collective behavior of known climate cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, and the North Pacific Oscillation. By studying the last 100 years of these cycles’ patterns, they find that the systems synchronized several times.
Further, in cases where the synchronous state was followed by an increase in the coupling strength among the cycles, the synchronous state was destroyed. Then. a new climate state emerged, associated with global temperature changes and El Nino/Southern Oscillation variability.
The authors show that this mechanism explains all global temperature tendency changes and El Nino variability in the 20th century.
Major climate shifts have occurred or will occur around 1913, 1942, 1978, 2033, and 2072 according to the authors of this recent paper, who also predict a 0.2 Celsius cooling between 2005 and 2020 which should be followed by a 0.3 Celsius warming until 2045 or so – then cooling for the rest of the 21st century.
Tsonis, Anastasios A.; Swanson, Kyle; Kravtsov, Sergey:
‘A new dynamical mechanism for major climate shifts’
Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 13, 12 July 2007
“that will mean 15 years of no AGW at all”
When you take volcanism into account, it’ll mean that by 2014 there will have been little or no warming for 30+ years!
Which is similar to the 1940s to 1970s – due largely to ENSO/PDO.
You guys surely aren’t accepting the output of a “gulp” climate model are you?
And if it is so – what happens when holidays are over?
You can read the English version of the Leibnitz Institute’s press release here:
http://www.ifm-geomar.de/index.php?id=4192&L=1
I just can’t hide my glee at watching these German scientists scramble. My favorite line by Prof. Latif in this press release:
“Of course, always with the assumption that no other unforeseen effects such as volcanic eruptions occur, which can have a substantial effect on our climate as well.”
Talk about building in a back door!
This prof still has yet to mention the sun, Lindzen’s iris, clouds etc.
Creep!
We are not panicking, the models didn’t tell us it’s going to cool, Gaia just put a spanner in it for you, so the modelers have to adjust the spin.
Given enough time anything might happen.
In the long run we will be all dead!
Carbon dioxide, according to the IPCC, is the primary driver of planetary climate change. However something else is apparently capable of overriding this for ten or twenty years.
“Something else” must therefore be more powerful, and hence carbon dioxide cannot be the primary driver.
Haven’t you guys heard? The greens have been preparing for this over the last five years. They are not trying to fight “global warming” anymore. The villain is now “climate change.” It is not about the environmennt. It is about control of our lives.
http://depriest-mpu.blogspot.com/2008/04/iwo-jima-global-warming.html
As Gilbert and Sullivan may well have sung;
“We’re climate guardians bold but wary,
when cooling looms we’re never there.
And of our precious models we’re charry,
but damned if I can recall the next line.
But when we meet a climate sceptic,
or little boys who do no harm.
We run them in, we run them in,
we run them in, we run them in,
we show them we still have consensus”.
Creep: “You guys surely aren’t accepting the output of a “gulp” climate model are you?”
As a poster on Anthony Watts so eloquently put:
“IT’S ONLY A MODEL
Perhaps we shall not go there. It is a silly place.”
“You guys surely aren’t accepting the output of a “gulp” climate model are you?”
No, most of us have been of the opinion that the temp increases of the 80s and 90s were mostly due to an active sun and the PDO. So having that come to an end is what we expected. If there is a climate model that confirms it, then it’s simply confirming the obvious – namely that the earth gets warmer and the earth gets colder, and it always will. A very disappointing situation for the facist left and it’s desire to control both man and nature – but there you have it.
“Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said. Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a “lull” for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.”
After the AGW alarmists had their initial models spanked by reality they have taken a new approach. Now they want to be able to predict a range of responses that includes both warming and cooling, so that no matter what happens, they can claim that they were right, that it’s mankind’s fault, and that we must all be taxed and regulated to the maximum amount possible.
Active Sun – ROTFL ! Evidence being …. zilch. Only if you’re into the occult and drongoism.
As for AGW alarmists – what a load of dross. The reality is that climate models of greenhouse have always had some limitations in terms of decadal oscillations – like duh – everyone knows that. Well non-dumbos at least. Serious climate scientists (i.e not you unpublished and unrepresentative swill) left to get on with it have made some progress in this area. The long term message is unchanged – if we do accept their findings it even sets humanity up for a trap in the future.
However I suggest that the message politically and publicly unsaleable if that is the reality. The public want simplicity which won’t be forthcoming from a complex system. God has seen to that herself. We might as well get what’s coming to us. An example is the ongoing drivel on here that somehow today’s weather matters that much.
The important thing for the scientists doing this work is that they should neither “care” nor “uncare” what the outcome is. We would all be better served if the science was left run and the answer is whatever it is. Alas policy can’t wait and wants an assessment now.
Creep: “what happens when holidays are over”
Creep: “We would all be better served if the science was left run and the answer is whatever it is.”
Well Creep, are you on the other side of the fence or sitting on it? But you may want to ask yourself one question: Do you feel lucky? Well do you Creep?
Yes it was 6 shots not 5. So I don’t feel lucky – that’s the problem.
Paul, whatever happened to that improved GCM at the Hadley Centre that that was touting last year that the warming would return in 2008/9 and with a vengence? The warming will now supposedly tarry until at least 2015 or later. This modelling gig is fantastic.
Well morning’s press and blogs makes for some murky interpretation – all over the shop:
James Annan
http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2008/05/another-decadal-prediction.html
Stoat
http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2008/05/the_malign_nature_effect_again.php
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23632059-11949,00.html
Say that again Wenju? http://www.csiro.au/news/HumanGeneratedAerosols.html
It’s those damn aerosols again is it? Naughty buggers! They can explain any deviation from catastrophic warming can’t they!
“Active Sun – ROTFL ! Evidence being …. zilch. ”
It’s all about educating ignorant leftists.
Here is a NASA chart for you
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_yearly.jpg
http
Run a trend line through the last 120 years and it will slope up strongly.
“This modelling gig is fantastic.”
Yes it is. With each failure they simply say, “But we know so much more than we knew then. Now we can predict accurately”.
Sunspot occultism – voodoo stuff.
The claim that warming will resume is the alarmists’ attempt to maintain their global warming fantasy in the face of a cooling world. It actually is possible for an oscillation of cold ocean surface water to mask global warming (where an active sun is raising the average temperature of the oceans), and it even happened a mere 60 years ago (between 1940 and 1960), but this is NOT what is happening now.
Instead, we have a very dangerous situation where the cooling effect of a fall off in solar activity is being compounded by cold Pacific and Atlantic oscillations. Warming effects incur negative feedbacks that make them self limiting. Not so with cooling effects, which regularly plunge the world into 100,000 year long ice ages, with the next one due any century now. We should be guarding against this very real danger by pumping out as much greenhouse gas as we can, tailored to patch the infrared “holes” in our greenhouse blanket. My post at my link.
“Ive been waiting for this thread. Perhaps we can take a brake too”
Take a break? With all the AGW parasites out there to be taken care of?
How many more students could be put through worthwhile courses at universities if Earth Sciences/Climatology (Scientology?) departments were disbanded and the oxygen thieves in them made to reimburse the salaries and grants which they have sucked up under false pretences all these years?
How much more useful and valuable (and less costly) would the output from research departments and the likes of CSIRO or the Bureau of Meteorology be if they got rid of all the brain-dead co-religionists that infest these organisations? Not to mention the ABC and others?
And what about all the useless articles that junket around the world following the IPCC circus? Taxpayers keep all these snouts in the trough. Get rid of the lot of them I say.
Take a break? You must be joking.
Perhaps Ender can loan us his manual to help us get started.
rant rant rant zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
(Hey Ender maybe DS is actually G Bird on valium)
Of course, if the assertion that natural variability is causing this temporary downturn in global temperature is valid, then so is the corollary, that is, natural variation is responsible for temperature increases in the past, superimosed on the natural warming trend bounce back from the last ice age.
Pete,
That’s far too simple an explanation, of course. If it were that simple, we wouldn’t need a complete Industry to have been established to explain the ‘science’ to the rest of us cretins (aka taxpayers) that finance this Industry.
I’ve been doing some research into the size of the AGW Industry – and it is staggering the number of parasites that are being propped up by taxpayer funds.
These little IPCC get-togethers range in size from the 350 delegates at the 10th session of WG1 in Jan 2007, all the way up to the 10,000 delegates at the Bali talkfest in December – so it has been growing in plague proportions. What could possibly have changed in 10 months that needs another 9,650 parasites to flock together to have their brainwashing updated? Possibly I’m being a bit harsh – presumably some of these delegates are from industry, and they are attending to keep an eye on what these AGW loonies are liable to come up with next.
But I’m having to rethink the strategy — 10,000+ parasites is far too many to go after in one hit. A bit of market segmentation is required, and I think the best classification system is the one used by Frequent Flyer programs, i.e. Platinum Parasites, Gold, Silver, Bronze … all the way down to “Bottom Feeding Scum Sucking Vermin”. Once the segmentation has been done, then it’s simply a matter of putting together an action plan to tackle each one.
rant rant rant zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
DS: Your 10,000 odd makes Mark’s 100 > 400 sceptics look a bit seedy hey