LATE last year academic Stephen Williams, from James Cook University, reported that a rare species of white possum was possibly extinct and that this was likely the first recorded mammalian extinction due to global warming. Not surprisingly his claims attracted much media interest.
Now Professor Williams has rediscovered the white possum and the media is reporting “Extinct possum back from the dead”.
This morning I tried to phone the Professor to get more information and temperature records. The phone went to message back, and there was a reassuring message letting me know he wasn’t far away. I then sent the following detailed email and got the following reply a little while later: “I will be away in the field until 7th April with limited email access.”
I think the questions in my email to Professor Williams are relevant and hopefully he can answer them on his return.
Hi Steve,
I am writing concerning recent media reports about your work on ‘white’ possums in North Queensland. In particular it is claimed:
1. He said the species could not cope with extended periods of temperatures over 27 degrees.
2.”Over the last 50 years, the number of days where you get that temperature has been steadily increasing, to the point that in 2005 there were 27 consecutive days where the temperature went above that threshold,” he said.
These quotes are from a story by Evan Schwarten for New Ltd here: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25251692-13762,00.html .
I was wondering on what basis you have made the above claims. In particular is there some information on :
1. The species biology and temperature, published papers for example,
2. What specific temperature data set shows consecutive days above 27C, and is this data publicly available, and
3. What data set you relied upon to make the statement that temperatures have been steadily increasing?
I tried to phone you this morning and left a message.
Kind regards, Jennifer Marohasy
UPDATE, APRIL 5, 2007
The temperature data is a: “Combination of modelling and empirical data. We use daily interpolated layers, calibrated using 2 years of extremely detailed climate data from our own stations in 25 locations including on the site in question. After calibration the modelled layers predicted daily temperatures with only a 2% error. All this is current and new research that is unpublished at this stage.”
For more information see the text of the email from Professor Williams just posted as a comment in the thread.
***************
Notes
1. ‘Extinct’ possum back from the dead, By Evan Schwarten, AAP, March 27, 2009 http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25251692-13762,00.html
2. White Possum Probably Not Extinct from Global Warming by Jennifer Marohasy, December 11, 2008 http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/12/white-possum-probably-not-extinct-from-global-warming/
Comment from Ian Mott at the thread suggesting Cyclone Larry may have impacted the Possum: The Carbine Tablelands are only 150km from Innisfail. And as the winds were recorded as being in the order of 240km/hour at epicentre then we can safely assume that the winds at 150km radius and at altitude, were at least in the order of 180+km/hr. In fact, See http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone/tc_larry/ which advises that the top of Bellenden Ker Tower (1450m) recorded wind speed of 294km/hr against only 113km/hr at nearby Mareeba. The Carbine peaks are at altitudes of 1200m to 1320m so any suggestion that they did not cop a real hiding in TC Larry is pure bunkum.
3.“Poster child for climate change” – you be the judge
December 10th, 2008 by Warwick Hughes http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=188
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
perhaps he’s spent all the grant money and has gone bush to find another animal he can claim is going extinct.
damn I’m so cynical.
This actually goes to the heart of the issue of when is a scientist supposed to release their findings to the press. He had NO proof of his claims – it was pure speculation.
It is also worth noting that the last time this topic had air time Mr Williams was claiming that 30C was the threat level, not 27C. So we have had a 10% drop in the temperature risk level in just 6 months.
Further down in the earlier thread above this whole issue of temperatures at that height (1300m), ie 1C lower for each 100m of altitude was explored, along with the realistic improbability of there ever being a 5 hour interval of continuous 30C temperature because of the nature of the radiation curve and its correlation with normal diurnal temperature curves.
Without going into the detail of Mr William’s latest revisions, it would seem appropriate to speculate that along with the revised temperature threshold, the 5 hour temperature exposure window has also been shortened to fit the reality on the ground.
The same old narrative goes on but the facts change to suit the level of scrutiny applied to it.
Prove me wrong, Mr Williams.
Perhaps he is playing possum!
On a planet with 6 bil going on 12 bil, wildlife is reducing and some species are going to become extinct. Loss of habitat. Bound to happen.
But I’ll bet that by the end of the century even with CO2-free energy that situation won’t change though it may accelerate.
That tiny increase in T that occurred last century is not the problem.
Global warming must have brought them back.
A bit o/t but did you hear the bloke from the Methuselah Soc. being interviewed on RN this morning? Saying that within 30 years we will be able to live to 1000 years?
That’s what we need. Did I say 12 bil?
What would the population then be by the end of the millenium? {besides bored stiff}
I wonder how long Methuselahettes can keep having children?
I wonder how long Methuselahettes can keep having children?
actually – it’s more a matter of what Methuselite would want to have more children? – I’ve had enough already 🙂
This white lemuroid possum is not a separate species or even subspecies, simply an unusual colour variant of the lemuroid ringtail, which is not regarded as threatened.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but no species of Australian mammal has become extinct in the last 50 years. In that time, about a dozen species that were previously thought extinct have been re-discovered.
janama, what else ya gonna do? Ya can’t tow a caravan around for 900 years.
But anyway, it ain’t nessa, ain’t nessa, ain’t nessa, ain’t nessa, ain’t nessa sarily sooo!
Perhaps Stephen Williams talents would be put to better use investigating the possibility that CO2 caused the 1963 John F. Kennedy assassination. Think about it. No CO2 would mean no Lee Harvey Oswald and no smokeless powder to propel the fatal bullet. And no grassy knoll to ‘fuel’ certain conspiracy theories.
Oops, no CO2 would also mean no JFK to assassinate. But then all of the assassination theories would be equally valid, since they’d all be ‘vacuously true’, in logicians parlance. Wow! Professor Williams really has his work cut out for him.
Drongo – I’m gonna hang around until I can fly using my mind – that’s what my whole biology is yearning for 🙂
gotta say something else so the smilee lands up in the right place.
That would be fun. You could travel with the pelicans to Lake Eyre. Around the 40s with the wandering albatrosses and camp with the lemuroids on Thornton Peak.
Had to say that to get back on thread.
janama,
Flying is easy, using your mind, the trick is, according to the Hitchhiker’s Guide, that when you throw yourself at the ground in order to fly, in the vital moment, before hitting the ground, you must be distracted by something extraordinary stupid or clever or etc…
I’m sure some people around here could give you something to think about?
Cheers
So I’m not alone having the feeling of flying with my mind, that’s nice.
“janama, what else ya gonna do? Ya can’t tow a caravan around for 900 years”
been there – done that – I love camping out under the stars 🙂
The most likely reason for the drop in threat threshold from 30C to 27C is the fact that these possums are at 1300m so if 30C was the threshold on the mountain top it would need to be 43C on the beach at Pt Douglas. Even at 27C it would still have to be 40C on the beach, and for five hours through the day. And for it to be 40C at 2.30pm it would still need to hit 41/42C at noon.
So despite the fudging, the theory is still crap. As the continued presence of the possums would tend to confirm. Perhaps we should get someone in Townsville to drop by his place to see if he really is out of town?
Maybe Prof Williams can check how many consecutive days over 30C occurred in the summer of 1923/24 when the av max temps were
almost 3C above 2004/5 (Jan 1924 had an av max temp of 35.6 and both Dec 1923 and Feb 1924 were higher than the corresponding months in 2004/5). The possums survived that ‘heat wave’, didn’t they? The cyclone theory sounds far more plausible – and don’t say cyclones are worse now due to AGW – cyclones were worse in aust in the 70’s (during a ‘global cooling’ period).
Jennifer,
Are you insinuating the guy has fled because you have uncovered an academic scam by him. That he knows the game is up on his research into the white possum. That he is sitting on a rock somewhere in the Qld bush, tears streaming down his face exclaiming to the sky, “Damm Marohasy and her brilliant scientific deduction, I am ruiind, ruind!”.
Or is this just another beat up along the lines of Jensen, Bond University, beat the BOM, etc, etc, etc?
Jeremy C. Your average plodder would have no problem comprehending that Jennifer has posed a series of questions to which Williams has declined to answer, either now or for some time. We are happy to wait for his responses but for the moment we are quite entitled to wonder if his initial responses are consistent with a strategy of obfuscation.
Readers have every right to be surprised that a scientist could release a media statement on a contentious topic just prior to departing for an extended period of being uncontactable.
So as to whether or not he is sitting on a rock somewhere, or under one, perhaps you could use your extensive network of contacts within greater scumbagia to ascertain the truth of your suggestion. And you can then stop putting words into other people’s mouths.
In the mean time, do you accept or deny the conclusion that Williams’ earlier public pronouncements, that produced world wide media coverage, have now been exposed, by subsequent admissions by the author himself, to be a completely unsubstantiated crock of $hit?
I’m your ‘average plodder’ and I have just read two things on which I need enlightening. In one it says; ‘The United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity estimates three species become extinct each hour. That’s 72 every day; 26,280 each year.’
Then I read that the rare white species of possum is (according to Prof Williams) ‘likely the first recorded mammalian extinction due to global warming.’ Doesn’t add up. Any ideas?
“Doesn’t add up. Any ideas?”
Ian,
Do you think there could possibly be computers involved here?
“Jeremy C. Your average plodder would have no problem comprehending that Jennifer has posed a series of questions to which Williams has declined to answer, either now or for some time. We are happy to wait for his responses but for the moment we are quite entitled to wonder if his initial responses are consistent with a strategy of obfuscation.”
When has he declined to answer?
Strategy of obfuscation.
Evidence Mott, provide evidence, laddie.
Till then Jennifer is just throwing around the writhing snake of insinuation. But notice, how quickly she moves onto other topics. The strategy is, drop the insinuation, it fixes in the minds of those who are willing to receive it and then divert those same minds onto new topics so the insinuation takes on a life of its own and there is less chance of it getting steam rollered by evidence and answers.
Its a great tactic! I’d use it if I was generating propaganda.
“Your average plodder would have no problem comprehending that Jennifer has posed a series of questions to which Williams has declined to answer, either now or for some time.”
Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha…..what a crack-up…Ha, Ha, Ha, Ha….
Jeremy I trust you are here for the entertainment too? Yes, all insinuation and then followed by abuse from her fans. Very intelligent propaganda!
So we can now conclude that both Jeremy and Erika would have considerable trouble qualifying as an average plodder.
Jeremy has not even retained the part of Jen’s post that pointed out that she contacted Williams by phone and email. He didn’t return her call and his email avoided specific comment. I made it clear that we were waiting further evidence before concluding that Williams was obfuscating but Jeremy tried to imply that I had already decided.
Erika is so thick that she seriously believes the 8th, 9th and 10th ha, ha, ha, carries some sort of argumentative merit.
Erm, Mott, erm.
Did u ever think. Phone message because he was away and likewise auto email reply……………………………………………………………………………………………………. You have heard of auto email response when someone is not in, haven’t you?
Do you think it is possible the guy had tasks that took him away before Jennifer got it in her head to contact him.
D’you see why i talk about insinuation.
Mott wrote,
“I made it clear that we were waiting further evidence before concluding that Williams was obfuscating but Jeremy tried to imply that I had already decided”
Prior to that Mott wrote,
“Jennifer has posed a series of questions to which Williams has declined to answer, either now or for some time. We are happy to wait for his responses but for the moment we are quite entitled to wonder if his initial responses are consistent with a strategy of obfuscation”
If a non entity plodder like me can call you on such obvious doozies, d’you wonder why serious people ignore denialists.
Spangled drongo Yep, obviously computer modelling! Can someone list the 72 species which disappeared yesterday? or the day before?
At this rate, the entire recorded number of species would be gone in less than 100 years. Ah, alarmists, don’t you just love ’em?
So which part of the words, “quite entitled to wonder if ” do you not understand, JeremyC? You do accept that the meaning of “wonder” is not definitive or conclusive, don’t you? Especially as it is linked with the word “if”.
What a bogan. He thinks he has scored a “doozie” when his comprehension skills are so demonstrably lacking. I normally avoid such terms as “average plodder” because so many who might fall into that category in one respect will turn out to be way ahead of the game in some other field. But so many in the green movement seriously believe they have had some sort of superior insight that enables them to ignore the knowledge and opinions of everyone else. And in this case you have shown us some distinctly ordinary comprehension skills and have demonstrated a willingness to conjure up an imaginary slur and then dream up your own purely speculative defense of that slur. Nice work if you can get it.
But again you have avoided the question;
Do you accept or deny the conclusion that Williams’ earlier public pronouncements, that produced world wide media coverage, have now been exposed, by subsequent admissions by the author himself, to have been a completely unsubstantiated crock of $hit?
Yep, good question, Ian George. And of course, as Williams has shown, there could be just as many species being “rediscovered” every day but one must suppose that no-one bothers sending out media statements about most of the rediscoveries.
Of course, the best way for a bunch of bone idle boofheads to be seen to saving the planet is for them to start bringing species back from a bogus extinction. Talk about narcissism, talk about messiah complexes.
Part of Williams’ story line is the claim that Lemuroid Possums do not perspire and, in experimental situations, their heat resistance is low. But in the real world, especially in the WET TROPICS, the outer surface of the tree that the possums are nesting in can be wet. And being wet, (or just damp) any slight breeze can cool the surface down by way of evaporation.
When this happens the inside of the tree is unlikely to go above ambient temperature, ie the mean between diurnal maximum and minimum. In very hot conditions the possums may tend to favour hollows in very large trees with greater thermal mass so their own body temperature is exchanged with the cooler mass of the tree. Evaporation from the outer surface may keep the internal temperature of the tree lower.
And while Williams may not have observed any behaviours that lower body temperature in the laboratory, this does not rule out the possibility that they might do so in a tree hollow. Kangaroos and cats lick their paws and legs to cool themselves down and this can only be ruled out for Lemuroids after extended “nest cam” observation in extreme weather events.
But given that these researchers didn’t even get close enough to even notice their existence for more than 3 years, we can assume that such research will not be done for some time yet. Besides, they would never get funding to disprove a climate scare story, would they?
Ian,
Me’ thinks you need some lessons in english comprehension, but don’t let this bogan tell you.
Is that it, Jeremy? So are you suggesting that the words “wonder if” really are conclusive?
You do understand the distinction between inconclusive and conclusive, don’t you Jeremy?
Or is this one of those situations where you think you can effectively negate a whole sequence of verifiable facts and observations just by typing in your special magic words, “LOL” or “ROTFL”? Get this on board, numb nuts, that only works in your own head. The rest of the readers all recognise a complete lightweight who is totally out of his depth.
Careful Mott, once you start blustering you just contradict yourself.
—–Original Message—–
From: Stephen Williams [mailto:stephen.williams@jcu.edu.au]
Sent: Sunday, 5 April 2009 11:19 AM
To: Jennifer Marohasy
Subject: RE: white possum temp data, and
some more detail…
—- Original message —-
>Date: Tue, 31 Mar 2009 18:45:19 +1000
>From: “Jennifer Marohasy”
>Subject: RE: white possum temp data, and
>To: “‘Stephen Williams'”
>
>Hi Steve,
>
>Thanks for your email.
>
>But a bit more detail would be good please.
>
>1. Is any of the information on the species physiology/biology published –
>in journals? Reference?
No, currently in review with journal.
>
>2. The collaboration with BOM – is that modelling? Who are you involved
>with at BOM? There is very limited information at the BOM on high altitude
>North Queensland.
Combination of modelling and empirical data. We use daily interpolated layers, calibrated using 2 years of extremely detailed climate data from our own stations in 25 locations including on the site in question. After calibration the modelled layers predicted daily temperatures with only a 2% error. All this is current and new research that is unpublished atthis stage.
>
>3. Do you have weather stations recording actual temperatures in the high
>altitude regions?
Yes, 25 of them, recording temperature, soil temp, humidity, cloud density, soil moisture, soil temp at 15 minute intervals.
Is the real data pubicly available and what period does
>it cover?
Not yet, all current and ongoing work. Will be published soon.
>
>4. Did the temperature recording equipment survive cyclone Larry?
Cyclone Larry had almost zero effect on the sites in the north. We were actually camped in the forest there when cyclone larry hit. Media slanging saying stuff about cyclone larry impacts on the possums was all bollocks. We have sites in the effected area and outside it. We have been monitoring the effects of the cyclone for several years on a whole range of taxonomic groups. We know a lot abotu the impacts and subsequent recovery. The northern lemuroids were not affected by the cyclone, indeed on our main monitoring site they had not been seen for a year prior to the cyclone anyway. Southern populations in the direct path were apparently unaffected too. We have many surveys both immediately before and after the cyclone. Numbers of possums did not change, nor have they yet on those sites. Temperature stations were destroyed in the path of the cyclone and had to be be set up again.
cheers,
Steve
>
>Kind regards,
>Jennifer
>
>—–Original Message—–
>From: Stephen Williams [mailto:stephen.williams@jcu.edu.au]
>Sent: Tuesday, 31 March 2009 3:45 PM
>To: Jennifer Marohasy
>Subject: Re: white possum temp data, and
>
>Hi Jennifer,
>Thanks for your message. Its good to see that finally someone who is a
>sceptic about these sort of things actually contacts the source (me in this
>case) rather than just relying on inaccurate (very) media that usually seems
>to mostly follow a “chinese whisper” trajectory. Unfortunately I have very
>limited time and email access at the moment (I am away in the field
>conducting more field work on the lemuroid Possum declines). However, I have
>answered very briefly below and am more than happy to talk again once I am
>back in the office.
>
>cheers,
>Steve
Two points. Prof Williams claims that his temperature data has an uncertainty of 2%. That’s huge! We’re talking about temperatures that are nearly 300 K. The estimated uncertainty is just under 6° C.
It’s also possible that Williams doesn’t understand the concept of absolute temperature, and he’s talking about straight Celsius temperatures. If a biologist in a cooler part of the world was talking about a temperature of 0° C, even a 1-degree estimated uncertainty would translate into an INFINITE percent uncertainty!
Second, Ian Mott has raised some possible non-sweat-related mechanisms for adapting to higher-than-usual temperatures. Here’s another. Dogs can cool off somewhat by rapid panting. (It also means “I’m enjoying your company” in dog language.) If the white possums aren’t capable of semi-voluntary breathing, they could compensate by having lots of sex on warmer-than-average days!
Hi All
I thought you might all be inerested, I just spotted a white possum in a tree in our backyard, we have also taken photos, this iis in Wantirna South, Melbourne, don’t know what type of possum it was but it was definately white (never seen one before, that is why we took the photos)
It seems to me that if this is as previously stated a mere colour variation of a species that is alive and well then predation would be the obvious cause of its demise. Inappropriate colouration occurs in all species from time to time but these individuals seldom survive in number for long because of their increased visibility to predators.