Jennifer Marohasy

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More Drought for Southern Australia?

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Based on the 130 years of data, Baker predicts that the current solar cycle, which reached a minimum in 2007, will continue a bit longer. In fact, he says, “there could be a 100-year minimum in solar activity,” meaning much of Australia could experience a prolonged drought.  Read more here.

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  1. Helen Mahar says

    Intersting hypothesis, but checking only two of the maps given, Jan-sept 23 and Aug22-Sept 23 shows that we would be rash to bet the property on these forecasts.

    For my area, the data Aug22-Sept23 looks cherry picked. Above average, and timely rains in 1922 which petered out in Aug 22. The figures for Jan-Sept 23 show the continuation of an exceptionally dry period, which was a drought.

    My point is, farmers have to trust their weather experience, and go with conditions on the ground, each year. This data dredge is interesting, and it may have something, but I would not bet the station (farm/ranch for non-Austrailans) on it. Nor should grant seekers and policy wonks bet taxpayers money or farmers livelihoods on it.