Last week the Council of Australian Governments signed an Intergovernmental Agreement for reform of the Murray-Darling Basin. The new plan involves spending $3.7 billion on water projects across the basin. Is this money well spent and how effective will it be ?
Michael Duffy invited me onto his ABC Radio National program ‘Counterpoint’ to discuss the issue this afternoon. You can listen here: http://www.abc.net.au/rn/counterpoint/stories/2008/2296327.htm.
Sheep near Junee, Murray Darling Basin, Photograph by Jennifer Marohasy, July 4, 2008
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
luke; which one is you?
The only one you haven’t been with.
Thankyou Jennifer – very interesting. My friend who lives at Milang tells me there is a new industry there, sailboarding:)
Doh! And here I was thinking that the whole idea of water policy reform was to make it rain, as opposed to say balancing the needs of the rice and cotton agribusiness, fruit growers, small farmers, regional water supply and sustaining environmental flow volumes.
Thanks for clearing that up, Jennifer.
Holding out for a billy-goat, eh?
I wonder if global cooling is extending the drought? :
“A new paper published by the Astronomical Society of Australia is warning of upcoming global cooling due to lessened solar activity. The study, written by three Australian researchers, has identified what is known as a “spin-orbit coupling” affecting the rotation rate of the sun. That rotation, in turn, is linked to the intensity of the solar cycle and climate changes here on Earth.”
http://www.dailytech.com/Australian+Astronomical+Society+Warns+of+Global+Cooling/article12250.htm
“According to Wilson, the result is a strong, rapid pulse of global cooling, “On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1 – 2 C.”
A 2 C drop would be twice as large as all the warming the earth has experienced since the start of the industrial era, and would be significant enough to impact global agriculture output.”
Nah, must be just more Denialist Shillism. On with The Long March to Climate Stasis, comrades!
Stop Climate Change Now! or die.
Luke,
Sheep operate under the thundering herd technique.
In the dark you could never be sure.
While I’m not a CO2 convicted change individual, I see nothing but postitives in reducing it’s manufacture and release to the atmosphere.
The economic downsides are countered by opportunities to develope new industries, as the air is made cleaner.
To lead always has it’s risks and opportunities be brave it is not the first time aussies have led the flock, if we were to succeed!! approbation will last a long time at the same time our children will be healthier, for the reduction in CO2 will be accompanied by the reduction in other
sh*t in the air.
fluff4
Wes,
The gory bleeder AGW evangelistas must have death and destruction.
Since the beginning of time they have been spruiking one approaching catastrophe or another.
It’s funny though; it’s never stopped them rattling a money box under your nose while they preached.
What cooling Wes? – counting chooks before hatching again.
Trends (1961–2003) in daily maximum and minimum temperatures, extremes and variance were found to be spatially
coherent across the Asia–Pacific region. The majority of stations exhibited significant trends: increases in mean maximum
and mean minimum temperature, decreases in cold nights and cool days, and increases in warm nights. No station showed
a significant increase in cold days or cold nights, but a few sites showed significant decreases in hot days and warm nights.
Significant decreases were observed in both maximum and minimum temperature standard deviation in China, Korea and
some stations in Japan (probably reflecting urbanization effects), but also for some Thailand and coastal Australian sites.
The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) region between Fiji and the Solomon Islands showed a significant increase
in maximum temperature variability.
More at http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/lec/IntJClimatol2005.pdf
And of course all droughts are not necessarily in Australia. West Timor on our front door step has major issues. Don’t think they get Exceptional Circumstances support funding strangely.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/07/06/westtimor.children/index.html
Jennifer,
I have been looking but cannot find quanitifiable evidence of the potential problem of acid sulphate soils in the lower lakes areas, or detailed predictions for potential problems when the region is rehydrated. The CSIRO speak in generalies and assumptions and have not quantified this, but are working on mapping potential areas of concern at the moment.
I am wondering what the source of your information is that has lead you to put this forward as the major problem in this region.
Are you able to post this detailed background information?
Thanks
Luke,
Are you saying that AGW is the cause of those West Timor problems?
Hi Pete, I am working from the basis of the ‘leaked report’ (http://www.abc.net.au/news/opinion/documents/files/20080618murray-darling.pdf )
which grabs some media headlines (http://news.theage.com.au/national/nelson-asks-rudd-to-come-to-murray-20080620-2tuc.html)
a few weeks back and also the CSIRO mapping project and my knowledge of ASS from working with the Queensland sugar industry.
This is from the ‘leaked report’:
f. Exposure of Acid Sulfate Soils
Large areas (>3 000 ha) of sediment on the lake fringes and wetlands have been
exposed as lake levels have fallen to unprecedented levels. Those sediments
exposed below 0.0m AHD have not been previously exposed. CSIRO surveys and
mapping have found that the Lower Lakes’ beds are comprised almost entirely of
acid sulfate soils (ASS). ASS form naturally in permanently submerged sediments
(under anoxic conditions) and contain sulfidic materials (e.g. iron pyrite) that oxidise
to form sulfuric acid when exposed to the air. The acid can move into the water by a
variety of pathways. In sediments that are subject to at least occasional periods of
exposure these sulfidic materials are oxidised before they accumulate to significant
levels.
Frank,
You reckon that the precautionary principle and some hearty approbation are all you need to commit financial suicide?
And what if trying to reduce ACO2 puts more shit in the air and the ground as is happening now?
Like the rainforests around the world being removed and replanted for bio fuels which emit greater net CO2 and then there’s the mercury in twirly bulbs……
“Are you saying that AGW is the cause of those West Timor problems?”
“G” is for “Global”.
SJT,
How silly I am not to remember that EVERY problem is caused by AGW. [smack, smack]
“How silly I am not to remember that EVERY problem is caused by AGW. ” EVERY? Ridicule serves as a useful hole to stick your head in, I guess. Global might be part of the reason scientists are concerned about it enough to raise the issue to the level they have. And it’s a global change to climate. Nearly all life on this planet depends on, and is adapted to, the climate. Change that climate, around the whole globe, you might have a problem on your hands.
luke; your BoM paper suffers the usual defects; Fig 1 shows that at least 1 temp increase scenario (the bottom one) will result in fewer extreme weather events; the top scenario, which projects an increase in warm weather caused extreme events is negated by the climate logic here;
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/3850
The paper’s assertion of an increase in heat caused negative effects is disputed by this study;
http://www.csccc.info/reports/report_23.pdf
Amusingly they note their conclusions about China are based on 5 climate stations for the whole country; they also prevaricate about UHI effects; which means their form in this respect needs to be referred to, but I’ll give the links in the next post.
BoM and UHI; trying to pull the wool over people’s eyes;
http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/001036.html
http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/gissbom.htm
“What cooling Wes?”
Luke, you’re either a useful idiot or mendacious, which is it?
Fact is there is no warming of the troposphere and this fact alone is enough to sink the AGW hypothesis, but it gets a whole lot better.
The heat storage levels in the oceans are far too low for AGW orthodoxy either, that alone is enough to discredit AGW too, but combined with the cool troposphere it’s fatal.
Worse, the surface temperature record is flat to declining for the whole bloody 21 st century, which admittedly is only the last eight years. However, it’s declining even with all the opaque manipulations by GISS and Had CRU to adjust the data to support the theory.
The Medieval Warm Period has been restored to its rightful place as the warmest period in the last 2,000 years. Vikings growing grapes in GREENland and elephant seals depositing remains in Antarctica are in-your-face proof anyone can understand.
Mann’s hockey stick is the modern equivalent of the Piltdown Mann. Can you spell Fraud?
Meanwhile, the orthodoxy rolls on seemingly oblivious to new data rolling in. They would be, after all “the science is settled.” Why would anyone bother to do more research? Debate is over.
“We must act now,” say PM Rudd, or “by 2100 a 92per cent decline in irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin; a reduction of at least 7.8 per cent in real wages; and a $425 billion loss in potential gross domestic product.”
Whoa, that Rudd is a wizard! Wish I had me one of those yottaflop crystal balls to see the future down to the last percentage point. Could make me a killing in the stock market, eh?
Hang on a minute!
Why don’t the big banks all have their own yottaflop crystal balls to predict financial returns down to the last decimal point, like Garnaut?
Don’t know, mate. Lord knows they got the moolah.
The proverbial Sjt is about to hit the AGW fan and it ain’t gonna be pretty. I think Hansen was right, it’s getting about time to start taking it to the courts.
It was a good choice to remain an anonymous troll, Luke. Imagine your shame in about 5 years time. That is assuming you are capable of feeling shame.
SJT,
Thanks for the homily but Luke’s story on West Timor was about poverty stricken people left to fend for themselves.
As usual, he is obsessed with the idea that droughts only arrived with ACO2.
Where’s your evidence Wes? This is an evidence based blog.
Wes George sounds like a non de plume anyway. Boy George would be more believeable. “Do you really want to hurt me?”
>Vikings growing grapes in GREENland and elephant seals depositing remains in Antarctica are in-your-face proof anyone can understand.
Wes there are still elephant seals depositing remains in Antarctica.
Wes wankery
“Temperature flat to declinng” – probably explains why the Artic is melting? Or perhaps that CRU and satellites don’t add in any estimates for that huge area? A duh !
“The Medieval Warm Period has been restored to its rightful place as the warmest period in the last 2,000 years.” – says who you shonk – what’s the evidence?
And how about a weather report for more of the globe that grape growing areas in southern England during the MWP ? You wouldn’t be a selective shonky would you Wessy? No evidence Wessy (sorry says Wes – I only do prose not substance).
Luke,
I think there is some stuff on the MWP here.
http://www.co2science.org/
[about 560 papers but they don’t hold a candle to those beaut bristlecone pines. I mean, why are Canadians so good at ice hockey?]
And drongsey – the guru of MWP, Saint Macca says that at best we don’t really know !
I do not believe this
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