Jennifer Marohasy

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Climate Hysteria in Australia’s Media

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A new scientific paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), claims that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing faster than expected. The study entitled ‘Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions’ is co-authored by Josep G. Canadell of Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO).

The paper’s abstract says:

CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y–1 for 1990–1999 to >3% y–1 for 2000–2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the world’s population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity.

‘Decline in uptake of carbon emissions confirmed’ was the headline for the CSIRO press release.

The award for the most hysterical reporting of the study’s findings goes to the Herald Sun with the headline ‘Air poison rise stuns analysts’

In the US, the Associated Press article had a more restrained headline: ‘Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere Increasing’

In the UK, the BBC News website went with ‘Unexpected growth’ in CO2 found

Comparing 1990 with 2006 could be described as cherry-picking. Scientists who are sceptical about a man-made CO2 driven climate catastrophe have pointed out that rising CO2 emissions are not being matched by rises in the global average temperature. El Nino driven 1998 remains the warmest year on record. Ocean warming has also flat-lined during the past 5 years. Furthermore, as pointed out on this blog yesterday, the airborne fraction of man-made CO2 remains at about 55 per cent, suggesting that uptake by CO2 sinks has not diminished. It is also worth noting that global Methane emissions have actually declined.

H. L. Mencken’s hobgoblins are alive and well in Australia:

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”

Paul Biggs

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Luke says

    Strange that Paul would care nor uncare what the atmospheric CO2 was doing

    A quick review of what Canadell is saying ….

    2006 – 381 ppm – 35% over pre-industrial

    1970-1979 1.3 ppm/yr
    1980-1989 1.6 ppm/yr
    1990-1999 1.5 ppm/yr
    2000-2006 1.9 ppm/yr

    45% of all CO2 emissions accumulated in the atmosphere
    Ocean removes 24%, land & vegetation removes 30%

    0.25% trend in air-borne fraction implying a 10% decline natural sink efficiency

    Attribution:

    65% increased activity of global economy
    17% deterioration of the carbon intensity of the global economy
    18% decreased efficiency of natural sinks

    BOTTOM LINE

    Growth rates above highest IPCC emission scenario

    Carbon intensity of world’s economy has stopped decreasing

    30% decrease in efficiency of Southern Ocean sink over 20 years, met yesterday with blog news of also decreasing North Atlantic capacity.

    Mechanism – reduced winds from greenhouse & ozone hole interaction.

  2. Luke says

    The above was from http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/global/ppt/GCP_CarbonCycleUpdate.ppt

    So to Paul’s non-scientific and what is now an increasing desperate HYSTERICAL rebuttal.

    We have a “betting the bank” on a solar downturn which isn’t happening. And 20 different solar theories none which check out.

    Temperatures have not declined to 1900 levels.

    Anyone looking at the last 110 years of temperature anomalies – DESPITE what pruning McIntyre may do with 0.00001 type numbers – DESPITE internal variability wiggles that come and go – WOULD conclude that we have had a rapid increase in temperature, with observed increase in greenhouse flux, and NO other explanation.

    We have a model confirmation of the mechanism and empircal observation sof the mechanism and paleological evidence of the mechanism.

    The temperature growth may have flat-lined but we do have a thing called internal variability that moves things around – INCLUDING UP on the 1998 El Nino

    There no statistical decline in temperature.

    As for Paul’s desperate line with the oceans:

    http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/104/26/10768

    Published online before print June 19, 2007, 10.1073/pnas.0611375104
    PNAS | June 26, 2007 | vol. 104 | no. 26 | 10768-10773

    Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content

    K. M. AchutaRao*,, M. Ishii, B. D. Santer*, P. J. Gleckler*, K. E. Taylor*, T. P. Barnett, D. W. Pierce, R. J. Stouffer¶, and T. M. L. Wigley||

    *Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550; Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine–Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan; Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92037; ¶National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08542; and ||National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307

    Edited by Carl Wunsch, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, and approved May 16, 2007 (received for review December 20, 2006)

    Observations show both a pronounced increase in ocean heat content (OHC) over the second half of the 20th century and substantial OHC variability on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Although climate models are able to simulate overall changes in OHC, they are generally thought to underestimate the amplitude of OHC variability. Using simulations of 20th century climate performed with 13 numerical models, we demonstrate that the apparent discrepancy between modeled and observed variability is largely explained by accounting for changes in observational coverage and instrumentation and by including the effects of volcanic eruptions. Our work does not support the recent claim that the 0- to 700-m layer of the global ocean experienced a substantial OHC decrease over the 2003 to 2005 time period. We show that the 2003–2005 cooling is largely an artifact of a systematic change in the observing system, with the deployment of Argo floats reducing a warm bias in the original observing system.

  3. Luke says

    So in conclusion we now have over a decade of inaction on this issue as the result of blatantly dishonest game playing shenanigans by the denialists protecting vested interests.

    Time to stop mucking around and get the guns out on this.

    Denialists better pray for rapid cooling every night before beddy byes – squeeze really hard guys – as if the temperature starts to climb again you will have NOWHERE to hide.

    Meanwhile back at the Australian drought “we were all still thinking”.

  4. Schiller Thurkettle says

    Here in North America (Midwest) the locals are rejoicing over the warm weather. Today, as we near November, the temperature was a balmy 65F, when usually there’s snow on the ground.

    Ask the locals about “global warming,” and I’m talking cashiers, desk clerks, receptionists, and I get an eye-roll and remarks like,

    “Nut-job freaks. Let’s just hope it holds until Spring.”

    “This time two years ago I had to borrow money to pay for heat. This is great.”

    “Can’t track deer without snow on the ground. Hunting is awful.”

    Bottom line: in this neck of the woods, people consider global warming a hoax invented by Californicating environmentalists and politicians, but if–IF–global warming is real, they’d welcome it.

  5. Luke says

    “when usually there’s snow on the ground”

    classic – ROTFL

    “in this neck of the woods, people consider global warming a hoax invented by Californicating environmentalists and politicians,”

    well that’s coz yo’all are rednecks

  6. Schiller Thurkettle says

    Luke,

    Thanks for the reverse compliment. Actually, winters here are painfully severe and a mild winter is a relief for many.

    For those such as yourself who are CO2-challenged, I would point out that a mild winter results in lower combustion of heat-producing articles.

    In my lifetime, I’ve endured *weeks* when evening lows hovered around minus 20F.

    Your lack of charity toward those who suffer badly from severe cold, financially and otherwise, is only equalled by your unwavering adherence to the now-discredited AGW theory.

  7. Travis says

    >Your lack of charity toward those who suffer badly from severe cold, financially and otherwise, is only equalled by your unwavering adherence to the now-discredited AGW theory.

    Somehow, I think those that live in Siberia, Nepal or work in Antarctica have more to complain about regarding cold than your check out chicks, hunters, desk clerks and receptionists. It wont be long until their air cons are on to battle the warmer temps. Let’s see their charity when Pacific Islands people are displaced by rising tides. Did they donate to the freezing victims of the Pakistani earthquake last year (do they know here Pakistan is)? Do they care about drought-affected farmers in Australia or heat-struck locals in Greece? Your comment shows your ignorance and arrogance is matched by those you are defending.

  8. Anthony says

    hmmm, I bet the residents of California are really thankful for dry hot weather right now.

    Schiller – first class ignoramus. Can’t see beyond his own bedpost

  9. gavin says

    Paul: The report “Polar ocean soaking up less CO2” is a decent response to a number of issues that have concerned scientists down under for years.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6665147.stm

    Only a fool would ignore the current work on how oceans sink the extra CO2 that we have created in recent times. When our ABC carried the story of CSIRO’s involvement, I reckoned we had come a long way in understanding our predicament.

    http://www.csiro.au/news/CarbonEmissionsConfirmed.html

    Now lets see the detractors put their name and number up on the web for all to see as we slip into another bastard drought. Better still let them slip in and address one of the many conferences on mitigation downunder.

    Climate change is for real man.

  10. Schiller Thurkettle says

    Anthony,

    Let’s assume that that the Californica fires are due to AGW.

    That means you’d deny people in the US Midwest a mild winter just to preserve homes in Californica.

    The weird thing about all of this is that we haven’t yet come back to achieve the Medieval Optimum.

    For those who haven’t followed “the debate” closely, the Medieval Optimum was very beneficial to human culture, which the neo-Marxists oppose.

  11. Louis Hissink says

    And temperature has been doing what for the last 6 years? Remain steady. But climate change isn’t a falsifiable theory, so it’s not science.

    It’s pseudoscience.

    Perhaps our alarmists should do some research and find out what happened to the earth during 1859 and tells what happened.

    A repetition occurred during 2003 as well.

    It’s to do with coronal mass ejections.

    And CO2 is a problem?

  12. Schiller Thurkettle says

    Louis,

    CO2 is a problem if you want to control the world economy by putting your hand to the throat of its energy budget.

    Establishing a world government via CO2 control has enchanted the committee which endows the Nobel Peace Prize, but there are some who believe that Soviet-style planning didn’t work.

  13. SJT says

    Schiller

    I am constantly told here that the free enterprise system is not capable of preventing global warming, but is more than adequate at dealing with it’s consequences. Excuse if I feel a little cynical at that line of argument.

    History is not a record of individual action only, it is about a balance between collective action and individual freedom achieving the best success.

  14. David Archibald says

    All I want to say is what happened to a friend’s farm near Nimbin in June. He had consecutive frosts of -4, -6 and -6. The frosts killed 18 foot mango trees and 25 foot alexander palms. When will global warming arrive and spare us from such tragedies?

  16. Ender says

    Schiller – “For those who haven’t followed “the debate” closely, the Medieval Optimum was very beneficial to human culture, which the neo-Marxists oppose.”

    Was very beneficial perhaps to the Northern European culture that left records. No-one has any idea how many losers vanished without a trace in the same event.

    Saying it is beneficial to colder climates is OK and there will always be winners and losers however having warmer winters etc is fine as long as the areas that normally grow your food can still grow enough to feed you. You might get a nice balmy climate however you could be a bit hungry for a while.

  19. James Mayeau says

    Luke
    Hey. Would you be willing to bet on there not being a solar downturn?

    Just asking. I wouldn’t mind releaving you of some of your money.

  23. John says

    Luke is off on his hysteria again without looking at how carbon dioxide absorption varies according to the El Nino – Southern Oscillation.

    Yes folk, absorption decreases when the Southern Oscillation moves towards El Nino and increases when it moves toward La Nina. A warmer sea surface absorbs less under El Nino, what’s more vegetation is stressed by heat and the carbon dioxide absorption diminishes, or plants are killed and there’s a net release.

    In some years carbon dioxide absorption has been 120% of emissions (i.e. more taken from the atmosphere than humans put in) and in others as low as about 25%.

    What’s the ENSO been doing since 2001? Spending most of its time on the El Nino side of the scale.

    I’ll say this for Luke, he never lets nature get in the way of a good story.

  25. Luke says

    Yes John the well known El Nino pattern off Antarctica 🙂 Somehow John I think the scientists might be aware of such things. There’s an underlying trend over decades.

    One thing that you can say about John is that he always ignores what doesn’t suit. Do you wonder why there are earthquakes John?

    James M – which satellite series – not UAH analysis. Analysed by denialists.

  27. Robert says

    El Nino dominated from 1900 to 1920, when CO2 was much lower. Studies on sediments in Andean lakes show that El Ninos, and super El Ninos have been happening from millenia. We’re in a low rain regime like 1900-20 because of El Nino, not more CO2. This drought may last for decades.

    On climate hysteria: Why worry? Kevin Rudd is going to stop climate change: our media and most people apparently believe him.

  28. rog says

    Look you guys, stop teasing Luke. You know by nature he is a hysteric and this heading is enough to send him off into orbit.

  30. rog says

    Yesterday someone from the BOM was saying that there is now some rain moving thru SA, Vic and NSW and this is the 1st sign of tropical moisture feeding down to the south.

    He said that despite the presence of la Nina the waters off Indonesia remained cold reducing evaporation and retarding la Nina. This trough indicates that the situation has reverted to normal and he was hopeful that this is a signal of an early monsoon to QLD bringing lots of rain to QLG and south.

  31. Luke says

    But strangely the non El Nino neutral years haven’t delivered either. hmmmmm.

    But alas nobody here likes to look at mechanisms.

    Wonder what a Rog & Pat actually is?

  33. Paul Biggs says

    PNAS is good place to publish this sort of stuff –
    remember loony tunes Hansen’s warmest for 12,000 or 1,000,000 years or whatever paper – especially for NAS members – the paper is mainly just edited for readability.

  37. Luke says

    Sort of like E & E where Archibald publishes his tripe. 5 stations and you guys never say a word. Just look the other way.

  38. James Mayeau says

    We can’t agree on satellites. I refuse to let my money ride on Hansen’s honesty. What to do?

    I’m really looking forward to spending Luke’s money. Suggestions would be appreciated. Is there such a thing as a neutral study?

  39. gavin says

    Re Santa Ana winds, wiki is up to date with the L A Basin smoke pic.

    IMO, down slope “at typical speeds of 35 knots” they would hardly blow out a candle.
    There must be something wrong with the heater hey.