Due to the proximity of the IPS predicted rise of solar cycle 24 to observed solar cycle 23 solar minimum values, and the apparent lack of new Cycle 24 sunspots, IPS has again moved the predicted solar cycle away by 6 months.
Ionospheric Prediction Service (IPS): CYCLE 24 PREDICTION MOVED AWAY BY 6 MONTHS
Hat tip to Anthony Watts
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Good news for the climate rationalist side of the debate but bad news for millions who will starve as a result.
Here I’m going on the rule of thumb that the later the appearance of the massed sunspots….. the weaker the solar cycle.
This is a disaster. Solar cycle 23 was not strong. They say that solar cycle 25 will be one of the weakest on record. If solar cycle 24 is also weak then we have an awesome problem on our hands.
I’m putting my money where my mouth is. I’m on holidays now and will be checking our Cairns, innisfail, Cooktown, and the Atherton tablelands.
You guys might think it OK that we are not bristling with nuclear power reactors. You might say to yourself that we Australians have plenty of energy resources and that we don’t need nuclear.
How many good people overseas have to die for this arrogance?
Graeme, why are people going to die of starvation?
Well they are going to die anyway if the LIA returns, the “arrogance” is irrelevant.
There still seem to be two camps on the subject of SC24’s strength – some say just as strong as recent cycles, others say it will be weak. The latter camp is growing, but nobody really knows yet.
There is clearly no established model of the Sun that is capable of predicting sun spot numbers. So people just use various features of past cycles that are claimed to be statistical indicators of the next cycle. Some seem to say that the rate of growth in SS numbers when the new cycle cranks up is a better guide than cycle length.
It will be interesting if SC24 is very weak, because it will test the view that solar activity is a far more important driver than GCM models allow.
“How many good people overseas have to die for this arrogance?
Look on the bright side, Graeme. A lot of AGW hysterics will get wiped out as well – which would have to make for a better world. The maths stacks up in favour of the sceptics – since apparently there are less of them, and they will be better prepared.
As the old saying goes, “It’s an ill wind that blows no good.”
“A lot of AGW hysterics will get wiped out as well”.
Ivan,
Don’t bet the house on it!
AGW hysteria is inversely proportional to AGW.
The colder it gets the more they believe.
By their faith ye shall know them.
“How many good people overseas have to die for this arrogance?” – what a bunch of goobers – so how will current anything affect this hypothetical situation? What you’re actually saying is that AGW believers are somehow responsible for the Sun. Far out dudes. What sort of hooch are you imbibing?
And why do we need nuclear power stations when we have heaps of coal fired systems?
Keeping wanking away guys – an earthquake must be close. Try to get in sync.
Luke
If that is what you think we mean, then it’s the hooch you are imbibing that might be the problem.
Come to think of it, since AGW believers think they can control the weather, extending that hubris to include the sun isn’t all that implausible.
“Don’t bet the house on it!”
It does raise some interesting potential scenarios, though. The Chinese have their thousand-year world domination strategy well underway, and all of this AGW nonsense just plays into their hands.
Australia under Rudderless is already committed to destroying our economy with his ETS. Ford today – the rest will no doubt follow in due course. This ETS horse$hit must be a dream-come-true outcome for the Chinese – since once we no longer have any economy to speak of, we will have to accept whatever the Chinese are prepared to pay for our commodities.
With the US staggering into recession under the weight of a $10 trillion national debt, plus the short term $1 trillion sub-prime debt still to wash through their economy – a series of colder than expected years will risk driving them under as well.
Somehow, I can’t see that the Chinese – with 1.3 billion of their own mouths to feed – are going to worry too much about a few hundred million freezing and starving “Anglos” – especially when it is all self-inflicted.
Ivan
It is salutory read read Gavin Menzies’ two books 1421 and 1434 to gain an idea historically where the Chinese came from.
Of interest are the climate disasters which presaged the end of the Ming Dynasty, circa 15th Century, and I offered one idea that the earth might have shifted a little in its axial orientation from an encounter with a meteorite swarm, (documented in the Korean Choson Annals of the time).
For this lateral thought I was chastised by Abacus Tim Lambert for being ignorant of Newtonian Physics, and quite so if the only force operating in the universe is gravity, but add electricity and one need not resort to mathematical artefacts to explain natural phenomena.
It is my contention that Greenland was before the MWP at a lower latitude than present, and that its present position is because the earth was slightly tipped to a new axis of spin after being affected by some external electromagnetic force.
If the earth did reorient itself spatially wrt to celestial references, then previous benchmarks of longitude and latitude would have become obsolete and useless.
Menzies notes in 1421 that the Chinese embarked on massive sea voyages to establish survey stations, and to compute the parameters needed for accurate navigation. One would only do that if the previous system stopped working. Why the enormous expense of fitting out Zheng He’s fleets? To show the barbarians how to get to the Chinese capital to deliver tribute?
(to preempt some here, I spent a few years studying surveying at the Ultimo Technical College during the later 1960’s).
It hardly needs stating that a sudden climate change is more easily explained by a slight shift in the earth’s axial rotation than from other incredible possibilities.
Louis, if the angle of the Earth’s axial tilt had changed in historic times, astronomers would have noticed. Viewed from an unchanging location on the surface, stars and sun would rise and set in different places.
“astronomers would have noticed…”
I wonder.
Look up the history of the Crab Nebula supernova in 1054:
“According to Chinese records, on July 4, 1054 AD a very bright guest star appeared close to the star … which we now know as the star Zeta Tauri. At its peak this guest star was visible in the daytime for a period of 23 days. It slowly faded and disappeared from view altogether in the spring of 1056, nearly two years later.”
There you go: visible in daytime for over 3 weeks – visible at nighttime for nearly two years? Did anyone notice and record it? Not a single mention survives in any European records. (A bit like AGW morons today don’t “notice” cooling because it doesn’t conform with their religion). We only “rediscovered” this hundreds of years later when the Chinese records were translated.
And yet we’re absolutely “sure” that astronomers would have noticed axial tilt?
Luke, I think Louis has your number with this one.
“Come to think of it, since AGW believers think they can control the weather, extending that hubris to include the sun isn’t all that implausible.”
Where’s that ole snappy come back???
What – come back to a bunch of fucking idiots. The drivel factor here is now through the roof – hard to know who’s worse – Hissink, Bird or Ivan (666 and my brain spasms).
You’re right, Numb Nuts – it is. But’s that because we have to put up with morons like Chris Craw-fraud asking dopey questions like: “why do you think the models are fraudulent”, and NoTalent asking equally dopey questions like “why are people going to die of starvation, mister – I don’t get it?”
But I think calling them a “bunch of f*cking idiots” is probably a bit harsh.
Ivano-kook – your answer to Michael Porter was so inane – so moronic – so incredibly tedious – it wouldn’t even be allowed at Gitmo for torture. Are you really that much of an utter dickhead. You guys are dropkicks. All you have done is turned Jen’s blog in a frothing kook-fest of deranged denialist wankers. Wake up.
Hold in there chaps. The fat lady is not singing – yet. Give SC24 another six months or better a year for the coffin nails.
Louis your axial tilt has some legs. Ancient Minoan navigation instruments are “alleged”? “reputed”? to not be now accurate because of this reason.
Zheng He was not only enforcing tribute he was also trying to decipher and investigate ancient navigation text and maps. Pity the great purge of the sixties and seventies destroyed so much other ancient text and documents.
Mitchell
This is what Tim Lambert used as a counter argument, that someone would have noticed, but it was not until the times of Gallileo, some hundreds of years later, that we worked out that the earth moved around the sun.
At the time of the Ming Dynasty, and before it in Europe, Europeans had to deal with the black death and other devasting climate problems – no one in our civilisation seemed to have the time to spend on whether the seasons were expected when they were expected.
If my limited reading of the extant records is only partly correct, in Europe there were hundreds of calendars purporting to predict the dates of the next religious observances.
Let’s remember that before the 16th century, no one in the west really understood the real nature of celestial motion – all revolved around the earth – and any perturbations from that perfect system were acts of God ????
Luke,
I’m actually using this blogsite to develop a new business initiative. It is a new children’s colouring book, which I am going to entitle “Wally, the Gubmint Science Boy”. In a nutshell, Wally will be loosely modelled on a composite of yourself and Muttly (the dog in Whacky Races). Muttly provides the personality. He will be engaged in a series of adventures, ranging from single-handedly saving the MDB, to doing daily battle with godless heathen denialists using scintillating wit and repartee.
Wally will have a sidekick named Claude, whom I’ve loosely modelled on SJT. Claude will basically repeat everything that Wally says, and will constantly seek reassurance: “It’s a science, isn’t it Wally?”
There will be more plot development as I go along – but I’m really stumped on a fairly basic question: What age group do you think it should be aimed at? Will the over-4-year-olds still believe in something as far-fetched as AGW?
In addition, astronomers as we know the profession only appeared AFTER Galileos’s observations.
Beao
Quite – the theory has legs indeed. Mitchell Porter’s comment that astronomers would have noticed this assumes that there were astronomers at that time – not in the west however. In China? Probably. It’s interesting to also note that the Holy See felt compelled to restablish the official Catholic calendar at the time.
Louis, people were making detailed observations of the motions of stars in the BC period, long before heliocentrism became orthodoxy. A change in axial tilt in the AD period would necessarily show up as a huge systematic discrepancy between everything before and after. Sun, stars, moon, *everything* would be rising at a different point on the horizon, and people noticed that, even in antiquity. In Egypt they noticed that the summer solstice had moved away from the calendar date on which it was supposed to occur (1st of Thoth); that was due to the precession of the equinoxes. In fact, the millennia-long observations of precession may offer good proof of continuity. There may be data from Hipparchus and Ptolemy, for example. But I suspect that even a good ancient star chart would falsify the notion that there has been any major change between then and now, apart from the precession.
Mitchell
As no one was measuring the data at the time, at least in Europe, on what factual basis could one form the conclusion that a change in axial tilt was observed from measurement of astronomical data? No one in Europe was doing it at the time.
My comments are restricted to the period 1000 AD to 1500 AD.
I suggest that during that period the earth might have changed its axial alignment wrt to celestial references as suggested by the Korean Choson Annals of the period.
What happened millennia before is irrelevant.
The Milankovitch theory of climate change proposes that glacial-interglacial cycles are driven by changes in summer insolation at high northern altitudes; these changes are a product of variations in axis tilt, eccentricity and precession; they may also be affected by the other planets;
http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/138/paper/AS06018.htm
With the sun’s output itself affected by a multitude of internal and external factors it is astounding that its influence should be so maligned by AGW; in fact this is the best that AGW proponents can do in relegating solar activity to a secondary role in climate determination;
http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm
According to Skeptical Science the solar/temperature connection finished in 1976; so AGW has become manifest in the last 30 years; laughable.
Louis, are you proposing that the tilt changed a bit and then changed back to exactly where it was? Because otherwise there *would* be a discrepancy between pre-1000 and post-1500 observations, a deviation from the principle that the only change on historical timescales is uniform precession.
In any case, the odds are good that there is some series of observations from the 1000-1500 time period which will directly decide the matter. e.g.:
“And now a book, The Sun in the Church reveals that many medieval Catholic churches were also built as solar observatories. The church, once again reinforcing the close ties between religious celebration and seasonal passages, needed astronomy to predict the date of Easter. And so observatories were built into cathedrals and churches throughout Europe. Typically, a small hole in the roof admitted a beam of sunlight, which would trace a path along the floor. The path, called the meridian line, was often marked by inlays and zodiacal motifs. The position at noon throughout the year, including the extremes of the solstices, was also carefully marked.”
http://www.candlegrove.com/solstice.html
Mitchell,
No,
What I suspect was that Greenland during the MWP was in a more clement latitude than it was now, and that at the time that the Norse suddenly departed from it was because of a slight change in axial rotation, possibly related to the Choson Annals meteorite event.
That’s what the data suggest.
But all sorts of novel explanations are possible for this, but I really don’t have time to evaluate all of them, being allocated only a short time on this mortal coil.
“being allocated only a short time on this mortal coil.”
Time enough to put paid to a few ratbags, I’m sure.
“Wally will have a sidekick named Claude, whom I’ve loosely modelled on SJT. Claude will basically repeat everything that Wally says, and will constantly seek reassurance: “It’s a science, isn’t it Wally?”
I’m not sure that these examples of escaped and renegade afterbirth have that level of character differentiation. Anonymous slanderers and liars that they all are. Living only for the party line. Little boys playing with the railroad tracks, shining lasers at overhead planes, throwing rocks off the bridge at oncoming cars, writing filthy things on the toilet walls. Thats all these deltoid-lovers are. And your creative powers exceed the differences between them.
If we could put them together in one room mayhaps we could discern a familial resemblance between them all. Like when you look at a bunch of dwarves and you get the feeling that they all must be cousins.
“Graeme, why are people going to die of starvation?”
Can someone else explain the basic facts of reality to this total moron?
Why do you think you idiot? You tell me!!! If we don’t have the capital accumulation, energy production, and economic freedom to deal with cooling and droughts we die. And not all countries have all three of these.
Look at these morons. Affecting to be arbiters of what will happen to the globe. But they don’t understand the most basic things.
They have never built a tree-hut. Nor a water purifier made of stones and sand. They have never stolen petrol to explode it on the farm with baling twine and soft drink bottles, only to see their erstwhile bomb spontaneously transforming itself into a bunsen burner.
They have never started petrol fires all over the orchard when their parents were away and then run the vigil of hours of bucketing to keep it under control.
These people know no science. They don’t understand the world around them. And no matter how much money they are paid they cannot make the leap into any real understanding.
Graeme, what do you expect from the scientifically and mathematically challenged. – Educated by Facebook, Youtube, Wikipedia ,text messaging and a teaching system driven by left wing agendas rather than the the R’s.
All with the attention span of a rabbit.
[/rant]
This is good news, Ozzies! You still have government scientists willing to admit having no where to buy clues.
NASA & company last admitted to this particular problem April 2007. They now slide the date monthly without comment.
One tends to push their own paradigms. I believe that my strata-and-heat-budgets paradigm would be useful in predicting the nature of oncoming solar cycles.
NT was telling me about Kelvin waves the other day. He was saying they were “caused by” coriolis forces. But in accordance with my strata-and-heat-budgets paradigm, this is not the case. The energy gets released earlier and more frequently because of the coriolis perturbation. But there is little extra energy produced. Perhaps there is great amounts of extra energy produced but it leads to less heat builup one way or the other.
So initially you would think that the moons tidal forces would make the earth warmer than it would otherwise be. And perhaps that is the case. But the moons perturbations on the various strata would likely help in the release of heat energy. So at least we might not get the buildup that lead to Venus’s entire surface being subducted. Which sounds to me like Venus turned liquid again in its entirety.
Now we come onto predicting how the sun will act. And when I first came up with this strata-and-heat-budgets view of looking at things I wanted to race to the google. I wanted to race to the google to see if Jupiter had and orbit of 11 years or was a Jupiter year 22 years of earth time?
Well I found that it takes 11.86 Earth years to get through a single year on Jupiter.
If the sun is used to releasing excess energy as a result of perturbations in various strata, then its internal heat will be less than the contrary equilibrium if we imagined our sun without its planets. Or probably more correctly our sun without its planets, woul build up heat and then releae it with less frequency and greater ferocity than in the contrary case.
So we are looking at the sun building up joules and then releasing them disproportionately. If the sun has not built up that sort of potential than even the shearing of Jupiters gravitation, allied with the contrary proximate shearing of another lesser culprite might not do the job.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Popper was wrong. Much as I am sympathetic towards Popper and even more to his great local supporter Rafe Champion, the fact is that he was wrong.
In the movie “No Country For Old Men” the bad guy says that you only ever use the one best tool. But in science you never put away any of your tools.
The tool you need the whole time is induction. Induction induction induction.
The philosopher preisthood emphasized bivalent deductive logic. And all things have their place.
But science must break free from the Hume-Popper triangulation and proclaim induction, induction, induction.
Induction everywhere. Start finish and middle. Where they are in denial of induction clearly its a ridiculous hypocrisy, and particularly in the science-fraud camp since the global warming racket is based on a single one-step-leap of inductive thought.
BAD inductive thought.
A true scientist sometimes, but ought not care about being proved wrong. Once we know thats its OK to be proved wrong than induction becomes the great cost-saver.
Now instead of induction, induction, induction, its just statistics, statistics, statistics.
Still we never want to throw any tool away. And statistics can be useful. But the kids have been lead to believe that statistics and communist-review are science itself.
What was I trying to say? Well heretofore people were predicting solar cycles on past patterns assuming that these were all a matter of the internal workings of the sun alone.
But one suspects you could put together a better predictive model when thinking about what forces could release the buildup of energy in various strata in the sun……. ones first port of call obviously being Jupiter.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
There is another point. Whatever released that extra energy in the 20th century the fact is it was only a RELEASE of energy. Not some sort of mystical generation there-of.
There has to be some Joule payback here. Invest in Cooktown. Keep your head down. That ought to be a new rap tune.
Economists taken collectively are a shabby group. I was there with a cousi-bro when the economics faculty came out on mass and in a shock of recognition I said to him:They’re a physical bunch, I’ll give that too them.
Well they were by no means a physical bunch but it remains the case that authentic economic science is far harder than this climate science gig.
Our greatest living scientist is surely an obscure economist called George Reisman. And the greatest scientist since Newton must surely be Ludwig Von Mises.
Its pretty hard to think of anyone else thats the least bit close.
Its induction induction induction.
And that means its OK to be wrong. But its NOT OK to be an idiot.
“Economists taken collectively are a shabby group.”
It’s the second-oldest profession in the world – who do you think paid off the politicians for the oldest profession (for a fee, of course)?
On the food chain, they rank a rung or two below global warmers. They have even less data than ‘climate scientists’ – if that is humanly possible – and have far less qualms about just making $hit up. I know this sound a bit far-fetched but remember – this is the fundamental basis of their profession.
Politicians always have an economist or two in their back pocket (in the same way that mangy dogs have fleas) and always turn to economists to do their dirty work for them. Politicians know that an economist will lie without shame – and then blame everyone else when it turns pear-shaped. Cases in point: the Stern report, and our very own Great Guano, the Great Dissembler.
“But its NOT OK to be an idiot.” – so why are you then?
As usual, Luke, we are all in awe of your command of the English language, and your wit and repartee. Truly amazing! They tell me that the best three years of your life were Grade 5.
Graeme, I was mocking you because it was so deliciously easy. Because you are a moron who won’t actually read anything. I just made a whole lot of rubbish up (just like you do).
It was SOOOO Funny. I blogged about it on Tim Lambert. Strangely though no one cared, I guess fooling you isn’t that great a skill.
The point I am making is why do you think that a low-level cycle 24 will result in famine? We have famines now. Why will it be so different? There may have been famine’s in Europe during the Maunder Mininmum, but what about for other cultures elsewhere? How were the Aztecs doing? How were the Chinese?
How do you feel about Deduction? I mean if it’s induction induction induction, doesn’t that leave Sherlock Holmes a bit mystified? 🙂
Luke, I love this Blog. It’s so funny…
I love how Louis can’t see that a pertubation in the earth’s axis would affect astronomical measurements from 1000 BC. I love how Graeme goes nuts and then makes up pages of waffle. Trying to like the solar cycle with Jupiter’s orbit (is that what you are trying to do?)
This is a special blog filled with special people. Three cheers to you all!!
NT you are just an idiot. I don’t know what this scramble is for you to make excuses. You are here anonymously. So you can get away with being a fool.
Ivan I share your dim view of economists. I’m constantly arguing with the locals. But thats the whole point. Its hard to do it right like Reisman and Von Mises. Nothing is easier than bad economics. But to do real useful and good work in economics is harder than the physical sciences. People are only fooled by this on account of the maths and computing barrier.
“….. Trying to like the solar cycle with Jupiter’s orbit (is that what you are trying to do?)”
Look how these dumb bastards know nothing other than their own tendentiousness. You idiot NT. I’m not trying to “DO” anything.
But its pretty unlikely that solar cycles are entirely unrelated to Jupiters orbit. Or the orbit of the sum total of the planets more generally.
This can easily be verified because now they have the capability of inferring planets in other solar systems. So having done so they could relate the variation in other stars to their gravitational perturbations there.
Reading the Lavoisier institute papers we find that David Archibald was commissioned to see if he could replicate the work of Theodor Landsheidt. Lansheidt had the situation so well sussed out that he could predict Forbush events and then predict exactly when they would lead to an El Nino. But his system was never completed and mainstreamed. Quiggin called Theodor a “cycle crank”. He would know I suppose since Quiggin is a crank in all things.
Archibald says he was unable to replicate Theodors work. I would encourage him and the institute to try again. Theodor deserves better than being dismissed as some latter-day astrologer.
All Archibald and the institute need to do is team up with a trained astronomer who can trace back the various orbits and test various hypotheses as to when the extra energy is likely to be RELEASED AND NOT PRODUCED.
Going on my strata-and-heat-budgets paradigm, (which will soon become so obvious that I am destined to be robbed of any credit for the insight), they will surely be able to acheive what they failed to do the first time around.
This is important undertaking purely from the point of view of justice. Landsheidt deserves better than to be pilloried by DDT-bureaucratisation-holocaust-deniers like Quiggin.
This would be easy work for someone like Archibald if he is able to team up with someone who can give him quick answers on historical orbits.
NT, it is (in my view, but not just in my view) entirely reasonable to postulate that the basic rhythm of the solar cycle is due to tidal forces from Jupiter. It would be a surprising coincidence if they are *not* related. You can certainly find people trying to make the connection.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/x072h37683724108/
The standard model of the solar cycle is the “Babcock model”, according to which the sun’s magnetic field gets dragged into a surface tangle by the faster equatorial rotation. The sunspots are artefacts of the disentangling process.
http://www.nso.edu/PR/answerbook/sunspots.html#q99
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babcock_Model
But the model doesn’t predict the duration of the cycle – it’s just a picture of the process. So, by analogy with the theory that terrestrial earthquakes and volcanic eruptions may be facilitated by lunar tidal forces, it has been proposed that planetary tidal forces acting on the outer layers of the sun are the crucial regulating factor.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg18124394.100-jupiters-influence.html
Hmm… I’m pretty conservative… I stick with the accepted theory that Climate changes are Natural.
I stick with the accepted theory of gravitational effects.
I don’t know about meteors affecting tilt, or electrical universes. I’m sure there are interesting points that have attracted you to express your views on those topics Louis.
However, I hold no stock with Gavin Menzies books or theories of Chinese seaborne exploration.
I don’t mind reading or taking note of interesting ideas….. But I prefer facts to cobble the pathways to conclusions…. not anecdotes or assumptions. It makes for steadier journey’s. 😉
NT,
You love how I can’t see a perturbation etc…. You have not understood the idea at all – 1000 BC has nothing to to with my specific point about what might have happened during the MWP.
Louis; I posted this link on the Jupiter connection earlier;
http://www.publish.csiro.au/nid/138/paper/AS06018.htm
It is the Wilson, Carter and Waite paper; so, how do the 178.7 year cycles they speak of tie in with your historical records?
Archibald – hahahahahahahahahaha ! Oh Bird-poop – standards pls.
http://n3xus6.blogspot.com/2007/02/dd.html
Mate if you ARE a real libertarian and not some tame pet parrot – you’ll have to turn on the independent thought module. At least hate everyone.
NT – yes – they’re all very tedious aren’t they. I guess we’re all just sitting around trading insults till Paul decided to post something meaty. But you’re right they are nutty aren’t they- just like the nutty squirrels. They chatter about reds under the bed and get themselves all frothed up in a lather. (of course which also explains earthquakes).
Anyway here’s a documentary of the inmates at home
Cohenite,
I’m a little vague in terms of precise dates in the historical record, but I don’t think the ~180 year solar cycle has anything to do with it. (I note that Wilson et al., note a cycle but are quite unable to come up with a plausible physical explanation – little wonder when they ignore the physics of electric plasma).
Yi Tae-jin is compiling the Annals of the Choson Dynasty in Korea and has noted that from about 1392 to 1863 the earth seemed have been immersed in a meteor swarm.(http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/korea/). The LIA in other words.
The LIA was preceded by the MWP and what I find interesting is the fact that we have not yet reached those temperatures. To do that would require a significant rise in global mean temp, and I don’t think that is possible.
However I do buy the RC argument that the MWP was a local phenomenon but not for the reasons they put.
Others here have more or less dismissed electric universe theories, but if the system is, as Alfven, Peratt, Scott, Eastman, etc reckon, an electrical one, then a meteor swarm would probably be a significant electrical space plasma phenomena which would affect the earth electrically. Much like having a gyroscope with an internal magnet and then exposing it to another external magnet and observe what happens to the axis of spin. (This is a simplistic example but will do for the present).
So I suspect that the regions noted for the MWP – principally Europe, were in more temperate latitudes before the arrival of the meteor swarm, and then the earth’s axis of spin was slightly changed from electrical plasma interaction with the meteor swarm to its present orientation, moving Greenland closer to the north pole, not by plates sliding over the asthenosphere, but by the earth itself having its axis of spin changed.
There are tests for this hypothesis.
If Greenland cooled climatically, other areas on the earth might have inexplicably warmed, as well as cooled, especially those areas directly antipodal to Greenland.
I would also look for disruptions of old civilisation from a climate change. The Mayan one is under jungle, but was it possible that these areas were in temperate latitudes and were then moved to tropical ones?
Your link also mentions the Chilingar paper from 2006 which allocates a role for microbial activity in CO2 flux; Chilingar has also copped flack for his recent paper on adiabatic convective transfers.
You are obviously right luke; we should restrict ourselves to reading such ‘scientific’ papers as the Ammann and Wahl effort; and Sherwood and Allen would rank high; then there are the Johnson papers endlessly pointing out the defects with ARGO and any other ocean temp recording device which had the temerity to show cooling; I also must look for that Hansen paper where he had 57 references; 56 were to himself and the other one was a misprint.
Luke
You seem to remind me a little of Amon Goethe, a principal character in the movie – Schindler’s List.
Nexus 6’s blog is nothing but a technologically sophisticated ad hominem. Being a blog it does not need peer reviewing, an excreable term if there ever was one.
Louis – all you have to say is that you fully support Archibald’s papers. Is that what you’re saying?
Luke,
No, I never ever said that – what jooo-joo juice are you on in Canberra?
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For the sake of clarification, the IPS stresses that it was not the theory, the algorithim, nor the skill of the researchers which was at fault in this latest attempt – it was the fault of all levels of government, as they would not spend sufficient money on programs which would have ensured that reality conformed with theory.
The IPS affirms the IPCC’s position that, given sufficient funding, the rules of logic and science will give way to the shear weight of money and the future will become predictable.
Well if it isn’t the Archibald hahahahaha argument. What an idiot you are Luke. Archibald is mostly just reporting what the solar people already know. So whats your problem. You are not a scientist Luke. You are an idiot. Nexus has no valid argument against Archibald. Nexus is just another idiot like yourself.
Mate are you really that thick. Seriously? Well I guess your photo answers that eh?
No no. You’re an idiot. Archibald was reporting a scoop. It wasn’t primary research. It was an important article and a very good one. You are just a moron.
What he reported was that temperature follows solar activity. This knowledge had been forgotten and bludgeoned out of us by leftist liars like yourself.
You’ve got to remember Luke. You fell for this baseless racket. I didn’t. That makes you the blockhead.
Luke: Was that pic the Dobell one?
You too gavin. You fell for this nonsense. That makes you the dunce-cap-wearer. And me the smart guy, even if only in comparison to you.
Imagine you clowns being so stupid that you fall for something for which you yourselves can find no supporting evidence.
Thats a whole lot of dumb going on between your ears gavin.
Resonance hey!
Luke: We’ve right on that cavity.
You are not right on anything gavin. You are an idiot. And evidence-free blockhead.
Gavin – it’s a wonder he’s allowed day leave – I guess it’s an outlet for him.
You and Gavin are the idiots here mate. I’ve watched this blog a very long time and neither or your morons have come up with any evidence yet.
Come on you two incompetent idiots. Lets have that evidence. And when you find it can you for the love of God go tell that moron Barry Brook.
Hmmm…Just to try and ask a serious question here for a minute: can anyone tell me why the BOM is still operating with a climate normal period of 1961 to 1990, when calculating anomalies?
Considering the last year of this “normal” period occurred 18 years ago, it just seems a bit odd.
Its blatant obscurantism in the general. And specifically it can be used to dupe people into thinking the weather isn’t colder than “usual”
There is no objective need to graph “anomalies”. Its bad practice. What they ought to be graphing is temperature. People are always doing this. Making up imaginary constructs and throwing them into the works to make matters less clear to the laity than they ought to be. Actually the Doctor was probably committing some sort of heresy by bringing some attention to this shabby practice.
Specifically It allows them to pretend that we are now warmer than “normal”. But that would be a surprise to anyone on the ground and not subject to the warmers propaganda.
We ought to be pedantic about this sort of thing. Systematically cleansing the science of any misleading practices or terms. Like for example their ought not be such a term as “forcing” This is a highly processed and hypothetical concept and so its extremely misleading.
I couldn’t even figure out what these people were on about when I first heard this jive about anomalies and forcing. Forcing really means “hypothetical changes to a hypothetical equilibrium global temperature as expressed in an hypothetical increase/decrease in watts per square metre due to an hypothetical one-step change in something or other.”
So the very term “forcing” imbeds circular reasoning into the process. And the term “anomaly” is an unnecessary bit of idiocy meant to confuse people and make insiders feel special about themselves.
Graeme, re anomalies, humans have always blamed the sun gods when they could not work out the forcings for anomalies like crop failures. So nothing new under the ………..
i i i the layout is in front of us right now and those who know know and those who dont dont see,i will offer what i recieved by instinct.astroid travels light and fluffy Dosent it [dippies blowwing it up great noww theres millions of themm just waiting to have impact yeah thanks scientists next is how the world was created…..dosent anyone see the first fundermental issue energy a reaction caused action co emblances the law of phyisics i know nothing but in nothing is everything!ok we have a reaction energy moves it clogs its own enternal wheel!!!!it attracts a hole which cases spining through the compession and spining the the world starts its solid form!!!!!all from an astriod getting caught up in the pull of the hole!!ok again with the heat and spining the astroid compresses until forms matter, rock, in and as natural gases acure the rubbing of gases consumed gravity with the ideal that heat is centred and as a compress heat with not forgetting the elemt of the rock perspires and thus create water thus cracked earth with deepth awsome life no worries im a single mother with four children in tasmania ….you look out for jupitor look i cant spell and i havent had a very good edu mancation i tell you something im discused in the way your approaching it judgement day is as simple as the truth i pray everyday that when you sleep you yourself wiil aline up and the knowing will make you feel that nausior[sick] that there will be no hiding awesome time ahead yes everything is ment to be for a reason yeah yeah yeah but ill tell you something else you might like to know i believe we are all from URANUS because all the shit people carry on about one day i will publish the little book of shit with all the holly pasages good luck with what you know…yes chinas got alot to do with it…Question mars was once earth there was humanity there was shipss the world end a cycle the peple were left in dormant space for so many generations the spaned and changed due to the exposer of new elements three generations before the could reach earth and thus theres your aliens now sothing is repeating dont you think sameold they the destoyers dont care about earth they ve know for longtime this is the war on earth in the bible. some have no hope for this planet i do i believe once we too line up that we will have evolved we only use so much of our brain there is areason why!and i feel that i to live as a sacrafice for truth and reflection so we can evolveThe ice age hasnt fished yet hu mans allways in a hurry
Jennifer,
I understand you were the defendant in the court case about Global Warming causing damage to coastline, because of the claimed rise in ocean levels.
If you would like to have copy of the report I recently completed showing the results from the study of 287 locations, covering all 100 years of the 20th century, I would be glad to send it to you, via “snail mail”, as it is not something I did with Windows, so I cannot send it via an e-mail attachment.
Briefly, the results are as follows for the 20th century, all 100 years for each location, 1900-1999. The figures I will show here are the rate direction and rate of temperature change for three different regressions on each location, results shown as change in degrees F., per century.
Average of all 287 locations:
All 100 years +0.82
1900-1933 +3.21
1934-1999 +0.08
In other words, the period 1900-1933 warmed at 40 times as rapid rate as did the remainder of the century! Most important, the really rapid rate of warming took place decades prior to the large scale usage of fossil fuels. There is no way Carbon Dioxide can be causing warming, because there isn’t any significant warming, and the rate of warming essentially stopped after the early 1930’s. In the 66 years 1934-1999, the TOTAL amount of warming, as an average of all these 287 locations was approximately 0.05 degrees F. 268 of these locations were from the US, 265 of them from the NOAA file on temperature data. All as rate/century.
The environmentalists, the media, and “Vested Interest Al Gore” try to tell us the high latitudes are warming more rapidly than in the more temperature parts of our planet.
For the non-US locations in this tabulation referred to above, the below gives the details for some “Far North” locations.
Avg., Temperature Change Per Century
Nation/Location No. locations 1900-1999 1900-1933 1934-1999
Denmark 2 +0.84 +1.88 -0.41
Greenland 5 +0.43 +12.39 -3.74
Iceland 2 +0.72 +6.26 -1.75
Norway 6 +1.09 +3.78 0.00
Average of the 15 locations above +0.79 +7.14 -1.53
A bit dificult to make a case for Global Warming isn’t it?
Wayne Byerly Nixa, MO 417-725-6818
To get a better understanding of what’s going on with the sun and the utimate impact on earth’s climate Google “Rhoads Fairbridge solar inertial motion”.