“In just 16 months we have seen global cooling greater than the 0.7 degrees net warming recorded by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the whole of the 20th century. Yet it was on this figure more than anything else that the whole warmist theory has been based. Those IPCC computer models never predicted anything like this recent drop in temperatures.
“We can be sure that if the data showed a jump of that magnitude in warming rather than cooling, it would have been top of the BBC news. But it no more earned a mention than the truly unimaginable costs envisaged in the “carbon reduction” bill put before the US Senate last week.
“This solemnly proposed that the US should spend $6.7 trillion to achieve a cut in carbon emissions of 66 per cent by 2050 (even more than the target adopted by the EU). It was described as heralding the most massive shock to the US economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
“Even if there is no chance of this bill succeeding until George Bush is out of the White House, it may well get a fairer wind under Obama or McCain. Before the world commits economic suicide, it might be an idea to look at the theory again in the light of those latest temperature figures.”
From ‘Carbon costs soar as world cools’, in The Sunday Telegraph on 8 June 2008, by Christopher Booker.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/06/08/do0803.xml
[via Benny Peiser]
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Nature OnLine Published online 28 May 2008 | Nature 453, 569 (2008) | doi:10.1038/453569a
“Climate anomaly is an artefact”. Apparently the post war cooling was a “glitch” in the data which Steve McIntyre picked up over one year ago on March 18, 2007 “The Team and Pearl Harbour”.
A similar “glitch” is apparent in the landbased data as well.
One commentator noted that this Nature Article is hardly new, and confirms the low quality scientific work in this field.
No one really knows what the final global temperature plot will look like, but these glitches are in the order of magnitude of the computed tempeature anomalies and, and possibly even greater in magnitude.
This suggests the computed cooling and warming trends may be artefacts as well.
And we intend to wreck our economies on the basis of this potentially specious conclusion?
somebody do the one about the 8 degree cooling trend from 6pm to 6am…
Didn’t anyone listen to Pat Michaels at the recent “Climate Conference”. Even he says you can’t say it’s cooling. Perhaps you guys could get some sort of a consensus together, to avoid all the self contradictions.
SJT,
You can say it’s cooling with as much veracity as you can say it’s warming.
Sensible sceptics are merely saying, “Be scepical, don’t waste trillions on doubtful science”.
Is that not reasonable?
The “precautionary principle” ain’t worth that sort of money.
SJT
I did not write it was cooling or warming, just that the computed tempeature anomalies aree less than the errors in the data, and hence specious.
Yes I did listen to Pat Michaels and also agree with him, but if the raw surface temperature data is that error prone, then all the studies using that data are also specious, so Mann’s temperature reconstructions, for example, will also be specious.
And I am just not prepared to wreck an economy just because of specious science.
But let’s remember what Maurice Strong pointed out, it’s the destruction of western industrialised society that is the game in play for the global warmers, not saving the planet.
SJT,
Just to rub it in,
“This suggests the computed cooling and warming trends may be artefacts as well”.
“But let’s remember what Maurice Strong pointed out, it’s the destruction of western industrialised society that is the game in play for the global warmers, not saving the planet.”
Lets not forget what Kath & Kim said either.
“Those IPCC computer models never predicted anything like this recent drop in temperatures.” well of course – they don’t “predict” specific years. Everyone knows that.
Anyway while denialists are spreading alarmism about the end of the world economy – duh – “AS WE KNOW IT” – some are surfing into a new economy.
The greening of Silicon Valley
* 28 May 2008
* From New Scientist
“IF THE best way to create the future is to invent it, we say the second-best way is to finance it.” John Doerr is only half joking. He is one of the most influential venture capitalists in Silicon Valley, and he knows a thing or two about financing the future. As a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (KPCB), one of the Valley’s best-known venture-capital firms, Doerr has enjoyed a phenomenal run of success, backing technology companies such as Sun Microsystems, Google and Amazon (as well as the odd failure, such as computing start-up GO Corporation, which famously burned through $75 million of venture funding). In the process, he has made himself a personal fortune in excess of $1 billion.
But ask him what he’s focused on now and you won’t hear venture-capital buzz-phrases such as “Web 2.0”. These days, Doerr is firmly focused on clean technology – and in particular, energy technologies that can save the planet from global warming. This month his firm set up a $500 million fund for investment in green technology, on top of the $200 million it has already invested.
This doesn’t mean Doerr has ditched capitalism for more worthy goals; his new direction is still driven by an instinct for profit. “Remember the internet? Green tech is bigger,” he told TED, the annual technology entertainment design conference in Monterey on the southern fringes of Silicon Valley last year. “This could be the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century.” He tantalised his audience with the mouth-watering fact that the global energy business is worth $6 trillion per year. That puts in the shade anything measured in mere billions, such as the market for computers. “Energy is the mother of all markets,” he said.
In Doerr’s case it is simple rent seeking based on specious science and so must be resisted.
The world economy “as we know it” will go away if the AGW alarmists get their way. It will mean poverty and struggle for approximately 7 billion people. That is not an exciting prospect to me.
SJT, for someone so convinced of a ‘denialist’ conspiracy, why are you so concerned that ‘denialists’ get their stories straight? Oh, I see, afraid the charge will look specious if in fact there is an absense of agreement.
Correction: substitute absurd for specious above.
Are you anti-capitalism Louis? It’s just your market at work – are you suggesting actual regulation of new ideas now – sounds communist …
Luke,
You have no idea what capitalism is, and under no circumstances can it be construed that I suggested regulation of new ideas – that is the most inane comment I have read from you yet.
In fact I suspect you may not understand rent seeking either, but I could be wrong.
Luke: You’re back! Did you have a good weekend?
Ahh.. definitions
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Capitalism
Since we will all be ruin’d by something or other including buying the latest Toyota I’ve been going over some blog sources versus the mainstream science to see who’s up to the challenge of change. BTW we updated 2/3 of the home fleet sone time ago to ordinary vvti Corollas in anticipation of the inevitable fuel hike. See “Dryness as usual” with A Bolt n Co the via ABC Media Watch review 2006
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s1777013.htm
Since climate change was never about the old temperature records in MHO, lets return to SL and some of the latest coastline issues, “Rising sea levels threaten cities” Canberra Times today –
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/local/news/general/rising-sea-levels-threaten-cities/785840.aspx
then we go onto ABC radio and find that farmers in SA are arguing with foresters round Millicent who are sapping up a disproportioned amount of rainfall in May our driest month on record. Today they had got only 5mm from the sky in one of S E Aus best soakings for a while. Climate change dowunder it seems is critically all about our ability to “recharge” ground water. This could be too hard for some in these debates hey
http://www.anra.gov.au/topics/water/pubs/state_technical/sa_tecpage.html
Gavin,
when are we going to see those south sea islands go under?? I am tired of waiting for sinking islands NOT being inundated!!
By the way, aren’t droughts more of that WEATHER that the models struggle to replicate?? I really like how the rain is rather spurious!!
sjt,
it isn’t WARMING. It isn’t COOLING. It is WEATHER!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Gavin,
when are we going to see those south sea islands go under?? I am tired of waiting for sinking islands NOT being inundated!!
By the way, aren’t droughts more of that WEATHER that the models struggle to replicate?? I really like how the rain is rather spurious!!
sjt,
it isn’t WARMING. It isn’t COOLING. It is WEATHER!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Gavin,
That CT article is a bit of a beat-up isn’t it?
Rosslyn Beeby starts with: ‘Seal-level rise caused by global warning (sic) is already tracking above the global average …’ then says that all of this is from ‘scenarios’ presented to a federal inquiry.
Not that I’m against taking precautions with parking assets like houses too close to the sea. Where I grew up in the UK during the 50s and 60s there was a well-known street where cliff-top residences regularly fell onto the beach as the Isle of Wight lost weight due to coastal erosion.
bikerider: growing up by the sea should make you more aware of the difference between costal erosion and changing sea level i.e. normal wear and tear versus more or less high tides over long time scales. As a retired instrument engineering tech one learns to stand back a bit from the turbulence and the periodic oscillations to successfully gauge the major event and its rate of change.
At the waters edge it’s not the fully exposed cliff face that demands the keen eye but the well protected tidal inlet (without a lake restricted by sand bars and filled abruptly with natural runoff after big storms). Monitoring flat beaches is dead easy once you know what should remain after normal tides. Guess I acquired some skill in noting sludge marks around artificial ponds too.
There is no way this planet is “cooling”. Also I don’t need to refer to blogs in gaining this confidence! Without referring to individual punters I also know when they have no background in science or practice. This constant reference to MWP and LIA is likewise pretty baseless in engineering terms.
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/070.htm
Ender I just had a look at BOM. South East South Australia had average rain in May (and that is where nearly all the population and agriculture is). Wide areas of the north and west had very little, but this country is semi desert anyway – it often doesnt rain for months in places like Coober Pedy.
So far in June much of SA has had quite useful rain – much more than the 5 mls you cite.
Why dont you check your facts instead of relying on “ABC Radio”.
rooting round the internet its possible to find that certain interests in the geology field have vested interests in ignoring the instruments from other disciplines.
Getting instep with the rhythm and the various moods of Gaia is best left to those who appreciate Jazz in all our levels of enlightenment.
Kenny G “live” is great measure on an otherwise gloomy day.
Billy G forgets one of the big “stations” is closing down regardless
Louis – “Rent seeking” is usually an excuse by market monopolists and those defending vested interests. What’s your issue with what Doerr proposes – is it your money?
BillC – “Ender I just had a look at BOM.”
That would be good if I posted here however I have not posted anything in this thread – hence its quality.
Louis: “You have no idea what capitalism is”
When capitalism has survived say 40,000 years we will have something to crow about hey
Gavin,
with your acquired skills, do you believe the sea level is rising?
As a water front property owner since 1973 and a keen boating man [and boy] all of my life, I cannot see any evidence of it.
Kiribati was said to be less than 6 feet above sea level at independence, now it is stated to be a little over 2 metres.
The half-tide benchmark on the Isle du Mort that the convicts put there about 170 years ago is still a half tide mark.
It seems the satellites can’t work out which way it’s going but statistics can make it go either way.
Nils Morner reckons there is nothing happening and he would know more than most.
gavin; capitalism doesn’t have to prove itself by a 40000 year heritage; it is at the cusp of human evolution ; what guys like you and others floating around on the top of the pond don’t realise is that capitalism is a bottom up system; the little guy drives it; that gets overlooked in the (usually socialistic/collective motivated) corruptions of that process.
As to gaia and her rhythms and moods; she only has one mood; and ultimately so to do her acolytes;
http://www.newoxfordreview.org/reviews.jsp?did=0608-gardiner
Gavin
The 40,000 year period I assume refers to the time anthropologists believe Aboriginals have been living in Australia, basically from carbon dating of the Lake Mungo material.
As I work and live in the Kimberley Region, I have a slightly better idea of what Aboriginals did before white settlement than city folk who restrict their readings to the disengenuous works of Henry Reynolds and other Black Armband types.
Capitalism does not apply to nomadic hunter gatherer societies living in tribal units at the subsistence level. Dare I say it but before Europeans arrived in Australia, tribal Aboriginals let the old die and killed and ate the youngsters in order to survive droughts.
And naturally the absue of children, as publicly reported by the Australian prompted the policy of trying to save the children by removing them from the harsh tribal life.
Now they don’t and it’s all due to capitalism.
“SJT,
Just to rub it in, ”
Getting fresh now, Louis? You checky devil.
“HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA” I don’t know what you’re on, but I’d like some.
Luke,
the very reason you raised it makes me suspicious,and for that you have only yourself to blame when no one here takes anything you write at face value anymore.
SJT,
Go and buy the socialist indexed magazine Quadrant, May issue and see if you can contradict Geoffrery Partington’s essay “Cannibalism: A White Colonist Fiction?”.
You might have to wear a disguise just in case your fellow chatterers spot you buying it.
SJT
And of course cheeky devil, I take that as an abject admission that admit collective fault.
Gavin
“rooting round the internet its possible to find that certain interests in the geology field have vested interests in ignoring the instruments from other disciplines.”
Perhaps SJT was referring to this with his undirected post “HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA” I don’t know what you’re on, but I’d like some”.
John Doerr’s investment schemes took a hit when Lieberman-Warner bill was withdrawn. There is pretty much no way he is going to get a return on his green unless congress outlaws the internal combustion engine.
Probably why KPCB hired Al Gore.
That’s OK Louis – we never believed anything you’ve said from day one and still don’t.
Luke
Which is why you are ignorant of the scientific method; It is not based on belief.
Here’s one of Doerr’s PR flacks, one Mr Ray Lane, being afforded what other venture capitalist’s can barely even dream. A chance to lobby the ecofascists in the State Capital’s only major metropolitan newspaper’s OP/ED section.
http://www.sacbee.com/110/story/963160.html
It’s amazing what you can get away with when you have a billion dollars to wave around. Yup, The Bee rolled out the red carpet for KPCB.
Luke, see how many howlers you can find in that article, then compare yours with the list compiled by the Sacramento Bee readers in the comment section.
Ok Warmingists…. Lets talk Tropical Troposphere Temperatures. Real data and Climate computer models…
and the failure of Climate computer models to reflect the reality of Satellite and radiosonde data.
All Climate computer models show warming of the TT at the 200 hPa boundary with increased amounts of CO2.
However Satellite and Radiosonde data for the last fifty years shows zero or slightly negative to 0.2 degrees warming.
But the Computer models for this same period including their calculations for the extra 100 ppm CO2 show that there should be 1.5 degrees warming.
Reality = 0.2 degrees C
Climate models = 1.5 degrees C
AGW hypothesis is seriously flawed…. Buggered I’d say.
James Mayeau
That so? That supports my totally guessed idea that Doerr’s investment policies are possibly “rental”.
Jeez,
SJT (in response to your first post up above)…. We… or at Least I, am not saying it is, or has been cooling…
I am saying that there is no such thing as a significant effect on climate from Anthropogenic sources of CO2… Natural warming and climate cycles I do believe in.
So no misrepresenting me stance from th’ likes o’ you ‘eh?
Hissink you’re the greatest science goose I’ve ever seen. Some of your lack of understanding on here is utterly amazing. Shall we talk anomalies 101. I mean really – this is high school stuff.
James – it’s not only Doerr – he’s just one – but these guys are very successful in business. Add the Google founders. It simply makes a lie of all you guys who want to stop all progress and stay in the energy stone age. All the naysayers are simply jealous. Whinging denialists who are really anti-technology anti-progress and anti-business.
Luke said…. “Are you anti-capitalism Louis? It’s just your market at work – are you suggesting actual regulation of new ideas now – sounds communist …”
No Luke. You fail to understand the distinction between Elitism and their tyranny, with the Democratic system and it’s Free-market….
It isn’t Communism that is bad… It is the fact that it is a flawed system. In that the Elites of a society can gain great power from it.
Tyrants do not consider themselves bad people. It just that their ideas kill lots of people….
Free markets however fund a democratic systems social-ism(s)… so to speak.
Sorta gedit now Luke?
What’s “natural” warming J. Hansford – “gaia”? Natural = dunno. Pity all the cycle stuff is probably bunk. Try and do some prediction with it and it falls apart. The apparent presence of long term cycles in the climate system doesn’t mean cycles really exist. The problem is that there’s enough quasi-periodic behaviour going on to make it look that way. i.e. it’s just noise and wishful thinking (or is it?) Beware the ides of cycles !
J. Hansford,
The satellite data only started at 1979, so let’s stick to facts. 🙂
Luke
Your problem is that you are riding a unicycle, and hence struggling with its inherent instabilities.
Luke
please do waffle on about anomalies – I have not mentioned those here, so our waffling might be educational.
Louis: You don’t have a monopoly in trying to understand people displaced in terms of their “traditional” lifestyle.
There was a time when I lived right next door to people who were virtual refugees in their own country, so don’t preach to us on the issue of capitalism versus tribal values and long term outcomes.
There are plenty of stories reflecting problems in adaptation to the modern world with out mentioning child abuse like the one reported back home many years ago where struggling decedents of isolated peoples dumped in public housing on the outskirts of civilization burnt the hardwood floor boards to keep warm over winter.
That’s the closest we need to go on transition except to say from the bottom up we all need access to resources, particularly in our high rise developments.
Cohenite; ever tried the low impact lifestyle?
Free markets fund democratic systems?
Two items on “free markets”, take your pick
http://www.financialpost.com/reports/credit-crunch/story.html?id=544244
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/10/worldrisksocietythe
Gavin
??????
Returning to this post’s original position, a computed cooling of 0.7 degrees Celsius over 16 months suggests we are dealing with the mathematical equivalent of “semantics”.
In my area of business it’s described as Horse Hocks! (After Co. H. Potter if MASH fame).
In 16 months the primary metric of AGW has nullified itself already?
Louis keep up the good work. Feed belief via a number of equations into a computer. Then adjust the factors until the required result (bad news caused by humans) is the result. Then you have “truth”. I wonder if one could use a random number generator instead? What I see is that the models and reality are diverging. GCMs are in trouble because they have been relied on as truth they cannot be adjusted downwards now. I am sure attempts are being made to plausibly represent the temperature downturn over the last ten years. I must admit though sea level rise is dangerous. When I heard that sea levels in Oz are increasing more rapidly than elsewhere in the world because of our wickedness I nearly choked on my coffee. Since world wide measurements are showing 1.8mm the only explanation is the weight of AGW bullshit causing our continent to sink! Luke et al STOP IT we are sinking. Also I challenge the believers to adjust their GHG output to 3.0 tonnes per annum as suggested by Greens as an example to us heretics. I think a complete explanation of how they achieve this is necessary. In other words they should put their money where their mouth is. We can watch and see if the GAT changes. Go on you might convince us.
Louis wrote:
>And naturally the absue of children, as publicly reported by the Australian prompted the policy of trying to save the children by removing them from the harsh tribal life.
Now they don’t and it’s all due to capitalism.
Gavin wrote:
>Louis: You don’t have a monopoly in trying to understand people displaced in terms of their “traditional” lifestyle.
There was a time when I lived right next door to people who were virtual refugees in their own country, so don’t preach to us on the issue of capitalism versus tribal values and long term outcomes.
Indeed Gavin. Hissink has conveniently overlooked why there are such problems as child abuse, drug and alcohol abuse, spouse abuse and poor health amongst out indigenous communities. His answer is that they are all primitives who used to eat their children when there was a drought and therefore naturally treat their children poorly. They have been ‘saved’ by Louis’s capitalism…yeah, right! Your ‘slightly better idea’ is as crap as all your other ‘ideas’. Kindly keep them to yourself.
gavin; low impact; yes mate, I’m married.
Luke; I caught your epic at Tamino; you must be triplets or have a superposition machine; busy busy; anyway, I take your point about the drought effect not just being a linear relationship with rain, but also dependent on temp, evaporation and runoff; a few points; the Roderick paper is a mixed bag, wind is as important as temp and winds have decreased; I’ll re-read it but he doesn’t seem to consider water depth and temp in respect of evaporation, but I’ll recheck that; BoM is open to criticism for using the 61-90 base period; it was wetter, and by virtue of the Pacific Event, warmer than other periods, which as Quirk has pointed out, accentuates temp trends before and after it; BoM also use the Torak and Nicholls adjustment mechanism which McIntyre has critiqued;
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1492
BoM have been found wanting with their UHI weighting as well; so generally the situation in your focus point of the MDB is that recent rainfall is not anomalous but temp is; to check this out I’ve been looking at the historical records for selected collecting points in the MDB:
Bourke PO; for the 1881-1910 period (which I selected because it has the federation drought in the middle, and the federation drought is generally regarded as worse than the modern one); Bourke had higher summer temps and lower winter temps; it had lower autumn rains and higher spring rains; in 1971-2000 (which is the most modern data), it had higher summer temps, lower winter temps; lower summer rain and higher winter and spring rain.
Broken Hill; 1891-1920; had higher summer temps and lower july temps; and av summer rain and lower winter rain; BH though has had its lowest rainfall all post-2000, but has also had its highest feb rainfall in 2000; it has had its highest monthly temps for jan, march, june, and sept all post-2000; so some support there.
Wilcannia; 1891-1920; higher summer temps and lower winter temps; higher april and lower may rain; 1971-2000; higher summer temps and lower winter, but higher spring rain; data to 2008 shows higher summer and lower winter temps, higher mar/april/sep rainfall and lower mar/june and dec rain.
Generally, I have to say, that what MDB is getting right now is business as normal; which is to say harsh.
Broken Hill !! Wilcannia !! Yep they’re well representative (not).
Most of the deficit action is on the Murray catchment above the Darling.
You still don’t get it do you.
It’s all but, but, but, but
Inflow is the issue. Lowest on record for 2 years running. Surpassed Federation drought and 1934-40s on all the calculations. Reliability of supply now shot to pieces. 99% doesn’t exist anymore. If one was serious on crops or pasture droughts – you’d run a plant model and do percentiles on that ) and they do actually).
Water balance = rainfall, distribution throughout the year, event intensity, evaporation (temperature, wind but don’t forget humidity and solar radiation (e.g. cloudless El Ninos)) and antecedent conditions (bone dry catchments that take ages to wet up to get runoff). And for crops – add in planting opportunities.
And haven’t read any of the latest science papers either on the meteorological mechanisms – not even a comment. Still divining rainfall analyses. Sigh.
You haven’t even started to look around. I’ll email you some papers via Biggsy.
The simple questions are these
(1) is anthropogenic influence impossible, possible, fairly possible, likely, dead cert? – the anthropogenic comes from the science papers not the decile analysis
(2) what probability distribution do water managers, farmers and policy makers use for the next 30 years – they need to know !
Your answers are:?
Don’t get testy, you’re obviously tired;
Charleville; definite catchement; 1881-1910; much higher summer temps, lower winter; much higher feb rainfall, lower spring; Birdsville; 1901-1930, higher rainfall jan, lower autumn/winter; 1971-2000; high summer temps, low winter; high summer rain, low to slightly lower other seasons.
As to anthropogenic influence, particularly in the oceanic indices; you will recall, I’ve looked at your Survostral, Johnson, Rintoul links; as Rintoul admits, water mass distributions and baroclinic flow are about the only thing they MEASURE well; they have no idea what causes the dynamics, but they are whizes at measuring whatever they are measuring; which is more than we can say about BoM; but hell, send me the papers; but can you make them look like legal documents; that way I can pretend to my wife that I’m working.
One final thing; MDB is what you are focusing on; we need to do a control and look at another region; suggestions? What about that speck, the Hunter Valley?
Charleville ! Birdsville ! irrelevant. Any pre-Stevenson screen temps pre-1900 are sus too.
No you’re focusing on the MDB – I’m focusing on low water in the Murray-Darling irrigation system caused by record low inflows caused by climate combinations which have sticky AGW fingerprints all over them if you read the climate science.
Cohenite note Figures 1 and 2.
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/forecasts/seq_drought.html