The heavy rain which has fallen across southern Australia in the past few days and caused flooding in parts of Victoria, has hardly made a dent in the record low storage levels of the Murray-Darling system.
ABC News: ‘Murray-Darling still in trouble despite welcome rain’
Thanks to Luke Walker for the link
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Rising oil prices won’t miss the catchment though. A wave a costs surging at agricultural producers world over. Potash prices up 19% overnight. Global shipping freight rates record high, if you can book any space. The Murray Darling catchment’s fatal flaw from the day it was developed was the initial crop choices. The future is low input agriculture (read not reliant on irrigation).
Luke: I think we need to add some recent reports given there are not many weeks or sleeps to the end of this season
http://abc.net.au/news/tag/rainfall/
MDB Commission issues & e letter
http://www.mdbc.gov.au/communications/s-scribe/eLetter_menu/e-letter_november_2007
East of the divide, the story is a bit different now
See – weather.smh.com.au/local.jsp?lt=aploc&lc=624&t=f
Sorry, cant find the link to major dam levels like the snowy etc in NSW
Adults who use the term “sleeps” instead of “days” always sound juvenile.
This whole report sounds like what Mark Twain referred to when he said that everyone complains about the weather but no-on does anything about it.
Maybe cloud-seeding would have triggered some rainfall there if the clouds had been almost right, who knows?
John: I now live in a region close to the high country and very near the Murrumbidgee River that runs through the centre of MDB catchments. There have been very few days of clouds recently.
The type that can be seeded were mostly missing for months or years even. I say that after watching rains over hydro schemes in Tasmania, which is about the wettest place in the country in a good year.
Another issue is what happens to other districts when rain coming from the west is encouraged to fall early. Full dams in the Brindabella Ranges for example are no use to upstream users of the Shoalhaven River that also rises west of the Great Divide.
The question of sleep becomes more important the older you get, mark my words.
Hi Gavin.
From you comment above can I deduce that you are across the science of cloud seeding.
As one who is so ancient that your comment re “sleeps” really resonates, I have time to wonder why we do not use seeding.
Another ancient fellow I know was very much involved with CSIRO seeding experiments some years back.
His memory is that the technique was so refined that they could almost guarantee success with every trial – subject to correct atmospheric conditions, which were well known.
BUT the whole concept was shelved due to possible litigation following any man made rain falling on places where it was not welcome and may cause damage- and maybe a pollie to lose votes if it happened to be in his electorate.
Could this really be the situation today?
Cloud seeding – very debatable topic. The “official” view is that except for Tasmanian hydro and maybe the Snowy Mtns the technology doesn’t work or if it does work it would take 20 years to prove a statistical result. Some nations cloud seeding but the world meteorological community is sceptical. Cynics might say that it’s only good PR for politicians in a drought.
It’s a technology that won’t be used for drought breaking (nothing much to seed) but might be used to top up average years further. Queensland government will be soon trialling silver iodide and hygroscopic salt seeding technologies in South-East Queensland backed up with new doppler radar and high tech instrumented aircraft. Will it work and how much? Who knows – it’s new research – check back in 3 years.
The problem any litigation has is proving there’s an effect on the ground anyway. You need the local research data for these cases. I understand in the Snowy Mtn sense that the relevant Minister can veto any operations so providing some space for intervention.
Earth to earthlings … who is going to cloud seed when silver is reaching for record high prices and fuel prices are on a permanent and likely very painful inflationary path and reaching for record highs? Anybody got any concept of the issue of energy rationing and how the world economy is beginning to capitulate under the weight of the costs of everything from pork bellies to tungsten …
Luke how do you find the time to post so regularly?
Aaron – without wishing to be a seeding advocate – the quantity of silver is VERY small and moreover likely to be replaced by hygroscopic salts anyway.
http://www.just-clouds.com/SOAR_pioneers_cloud_seeding_milled_salt.asp
If you Google cloud seeding with Thailand, South Africa and Texas you’ll find a lot.
Aaron – might be a turbo boost for average seasons to fill dams even higher – needs some solid cloud micro-physics research with modern instruments. High risk stuff. Might eventually need government legislative protection if it works – think about it – stealing someone else’s rain, creating hail?, creating super-storms? – who knows what litigious minds might try to fit out the operators with.
If it works at all…
Note amount of silver http://www.wet-intl.com/faq.html
Luke: I don’t recall where cloud seeding was developed for crops. Why are we discussing something that was only a stopgap in our hydropower development programs?
Laurie: We could say the concept is obsolete post war technology. After the Snowy scheme construction became well advanced many engineers shoved off looking for new opportunities. Some went to NZ and some went to Tasmania. In this Labour state the HEC quickly became all powerful and giant scheme after scheme was proposed. The only problem was money.
Poatina power station was built to drain the expanded Great Lake in the Central Highlands northwards. Electricity was forward sold to industry including Comalco in discounted blocks with a State Government guarantee. Then came the drought and considerable panic in high places. After a quick brush with thermal power in the Tamar Valley, alternative energy sources were brought forward in the form of more big dams in remote places.
Rainfall could not be guaranteed in any one catchment. Serious cloud seeding experiments led to long term operations over the Gordon River where clouds were literally dropped into the new dam only a few km inland from the vast Indian Ocean.
I recall there was a big difference between rainfall averages over the Great Lake and the Gordon Dam after the various schemes settled down. Let’s guess too; actual flow through power stations was a lot different to estimates based on short term rainfall info jazzed up by planners of the day expecting governments to fall into line. Done!
Having failed to find references at home, I looked up “cloud seeding HEC history”
http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/cloud.htm
Gavin – I’m not defending the right or wrongs of the hydro – simply that if we’re on the topic of cloud seeding I’m told that cloud seeding does seem to be effective in the somewhat unique area of rapid orographic uplift of moisture laden air from the southern ocean over the western Tasmanian mountains. And the Hydro seem to be convinced enough to run a programme.
There was were various trials in Victoria and NSW that seemed inconclusive and the CSIRO Division of Cloud Physics evolved in the the Division of Atmospheric Research (now CMAR) and gave the research away.
The Bureau held a symposium on cloud seeding this year: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/basic/events/cloudseeding/CS_Booklet.pdf discusses much of history and current trends.
All in all though an interesting philosophical position – some suggest we should give up on weather modification and even irrigation and learn to swing with what seasons that nature gives us. I’m not going to be that dogmatic !
Luke: After watching Difference of Opinion (ABC) on climate change, targets etc I elect to remain dogmatic. Living within our means today enables this mob and others to have a good life in the future. Hydro power in my old state was totally developed in a lifetime.
What we have become through large scale industry is an aberration. Air conditioning at home and at work is a good example. Sure, we needed constant air flow while working underground in the mines or diving beneath the sea and we got it however fixing up the atmosphere after mixing much of it with fuel is a whole new ball game for modern society.
For some time I have let my garden suffer this drought in order to predict what will survive without my attention. Former garden projects in this town collapsed soon after we or the family at large sold a house. I have now gained about twenty years experience in watching the best bits die each hot season.
My advice to national and state garden institutions is to put the rocks back and avoid excess evaporation around the roots of all major specimens including local eucalypts as the town water is turned off. Annual crops likewise must be encouraged to survive in what is the best of a bad situation. This year I put tomato plants in big pots under trees early to avoid the late frosts and the worst of the summer sun. Their only extra water comes from a bowl left in the kitchen sink. Even that is shared with the compost bins, no rainwater tanks or pumps, just daily savings for starters.
In further reducing demand, can I still grow say potatoes and avoid buying wheat?
The question is how many folk can make such an adjustment without regulation.
It is splendid to read the (to me) very informative comments above. All delivered in the true spirit of enquiry and debate. I do thank you all and in particular for the links.
When I fist came across this Blog it was just so. It was obvious to me that this blog not only attracted people who actually knew somethig about the topics under discussion but also were able to express differing views with civility.To me, this set this blog apart.
Of recent times however,these civilized exchanges often appear to have given way to smart offensive retorts which just waste the time of the reader. Pity!
Its absolutely fascinating reading the scientific version of events. Correct jargon has probably put the lid on expectations everywhere and I love it.
Cloud seeding was seen by the minders in Tasmania as “a cost effective means of enhancing system reliability”. No mention of the old problem base load versus peak capacity though. Maintaining base load becomes the grind in any renewable power source.
“Assessing the benefit of an incremental increase in storage position has proven to be a complex issue for cloud seeding programs all over the world” Hydro Tasmania – see Luke’s link above.
The sooner this endless chase for technical solutions to our demands ceases the better.
A wide dispersion of catchments and storages is a wise strategy for all rainfall dependent industry however maximising yield in any one place is folly except for the short term gain in a good season.
This discussion should take us back to our roots with critical issues like food storage.
At the Great Lake dad showed me how to dry and smoke a big rainbow on a hot summer’s day. He also showed me how to pit a sac of carrots down in the back yard at home. I later spent a lot of time around cool stores and warehouse sized freezers.
The sun dried product is our best bet.
Off topic, but thought its worth posting…
Just came back from a few days in Mildura – met a few farmers who are already on zero allocations. They are preparing for zero allocations in Mildura itself next year. Pretty gut wrenching to see these guys talk about it – they are just watching their trees dying everyday and can’t do anything about it.