New UN Warming Summary Met by Snow & Record Cold – Sampling of Articles in past few days
New Zealand Vinyards Failing Due to “Record Cold”
Excerpt: The winery made a rights issue announcement on Tuesday in an underwritten bid to raise about $1.5 million for working capital after the record cold in December severely affected their fruit set and stripped them of 75 per cent of their 2007 harvest. “It doesn’t take much to write off a million bucks after that. Now we need to build stock levels given that we were so very short on the vintage.”
http://times-age.co.nz/localnews/storydisplay.cfm?storyid=3755526&thesection=localnews&thesubsection=&thesecondsubsection=
South Americans ‘wondering if Winter will ever end’ as Buenos Aires sees lowest temps in 90 years
Excerpt: Residents in Argentina and Brazil are wondering if this winter will ever end. Buenos Aires recorded this Thursday (November 15th) the lowest November temperature in 90 years. Temperature in the Downtown weather station reached 2.5C. Since records began more than a century ago, only two days had colder lows in November. It was in 1914 (1.6) and 1917 (2.4). And ninety years ago the urban heat island effect was much less pronounced than nowadays. In Brazil’s southernmost province Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil temperatures fell to 2.3C. In Sao Joaquim Monday’s (Nov., 12) the temperature was -1.2 C with frost.
http://my.telegraph.co.uk/reasonmclucus/november_2007/al_gore_wrong_again.htm
Swiss Snow Makes 50-year Record
Expert: Switzerland has not received such a strong start to its winter ski season since 1952, with the amount of snow being swept to the southern areas by the wind cited as a particularly interesting feature of the weather.
http://www.fasttrackski.co.uk/ski-news/switzerland/swiss-snow-makes-50-year-record-200711151407.php
Blizzard cuts off villages in Serbia
Excerpt: Snow blizzards that continued for the third day have cut off a number of villages in central Serbia.(FoNet)Villages at the foot of Mt. Suvobor are the worst affected, reports say. No buses are traveling between the villages of Pranjani, Kamenica, Teoèin, Leu¹æi, Ko¹tuniæi and Brezna, and the nearest town of Gornji Milanovac, Beta has learned form the local bus company. A bus slid off the road in the area yesterday, due to high deposits of snow on the road surface, after which police blocked traffic on the regional route between Gornji Milanovac and Po¾ega in western Serbia. Snow is falling unabated for the third day. Drivers are advised to drive carefully and use winter equipment for their vehicles.
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/society-article.php?yyyy=2007&mm=11&dd=18&nav_id=45510
Snow snarls commute in New Jersey’s northern counties
Excerpt: Commuters in New Jersey’s northern most counties are getting a taste of winter weather. Snow is falling, slowing traffic on portions of Interstates 80 and 78. A snow advisory is in effect until 10 a.m. in Sussex, Warren and Morris counties. The National Weather Service says a trace to 2 inches of snow have fallen overnight. An additional inch or two are possible. http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj–wintryweather1119nov19,0,4719983.story
PA Snow brings outages, varied accumulations
Excerpt: An early season snowfall brought a range of amounts to the region this morning, with the heaviest snowfall seen in the Pocono Mountains where 10 inches of snow was recorded in Monroe County’s Tobyhanna Township. Other snowfall amounts recorded last night include .5 inches in Easton and 2.6 inches in Allentown.
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-snow-nov1907-cn,0,3237685.story
Heavy snow strands more than 100 tourists in China
Excerpt: More than 100 tourists were stranded in a county of southwest China’s Yunnan Province by heavy snow as traffic had not resumed, local government said Saturday. The stranded tourists were in the Deqin county seat and some remote villages of the county where traffic was still cut off, said Adain, Deqin Tourism Bureau director. They were safe and had no problems with food, clothing and accommodation, said Adain. Heavy snow 40 centimeters deep hit the tourist county Wednesday to Friday, causing a cutoff of power, communications and roads in certain areas. Roads linking Deqin to the outside may be reopened by Sunday, according to the official. The county’s diesel oil supply was tight, hindering efforts to clear snow and repair roads, the official said. In some areas the work has to rely all on hands due to lack of the fuel oil.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/17/content_7097030.htm
Heavy snow closes airports in NE China
Excerpt: Heavy snow in northeast China on Monday forced the closure of two major airports, disrupting the travel plans of more than 1,000 people. Taoxian International Airport in Shenyang, capital of Liaoning Province, and Taiping International Airport in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, were both closed at around 1 p.m., the Northeast China Air Traffic Control Center of the General Administration of Civil Aviation (CAAC) said.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/19/content_7106532.htm
Up to a foot of snow forecast in Idaho
Excerpt: You might want to give yourself some extra time if you’re traveling Sunday night and Monday, especially if you’re heading over the mountain passes. Snow has been falling on some of the higher elevations since early Sunday afternoon and it’s expected to pile up. The heavy snow warning wasn’t even in effect yet and the snow was coming down over Lookout Pass. It wasn’t sticking to the roads in the early afternoon, but with so much snow expected, transportation crews say traveling could be treacherous tonight.A light dusting of snow decorated the hillside along Fourth of July Pass. But winter’s beauty, can be winter’s fury. Early Sunday afternoon, drivers were already being warned of slick spots on the roadway. With up to a foot of snow expected in some areas overnight, Idaho’s Transportation Department says it has crews working around the clock, ready to go with the snow plows at a moments notice.
http://www.kxly.com/news/?sect_rank=1§ion_id=559&story_id=15965
Oregon sees up to 10 inches of snow
Excerpt: Chains are required for motorists traveling to Mount Hood on Highway 26.Salem-News.com(SALEM, Ore. ) – The National Weather Service has issued a Snow Advisory until 7:00 AM PST Monday for the north and central Oregon Cascades. Snow levels in the cascades overnight will range from 2,500 feet near Mount Hood to 3,000 feet in the Willamette Pass, and continue lower to 2,000 and 2,500 feet on Monday. Snow is expected to continue to fall throught the night, then diminish from north to south after midnight. Accumulations by late Sunday night are expected to range from 6 to 10 inches with the heaviest accumulations in the north. Snow showers on Monday will bring another 2 to 4 inches to the Cascades.
http://www.salem-news.com/articles/november182007/oregon_snow_111807.php
Wyoming sees 27 inches of snow
Excerpt: The Tetons received about a foot of snow in the higher elevations over the weekend, drawing skiers to the mountains and bringing opening day at area resorts closer. The Bridger-Teton National Forest Avalanche Center reported 5 inches of snow fell from Friday morning to Saturday morning and 7 inches from Saturday morning to Sunday morning at the Raymer study plot at 9,300 feet. The total snow depth there was 27 inches Sunday morning.
http://www.jacksonholenews.com/article.php?art_id=2436
Roads cleared after several inches of snow in UK
Roads are being cleared in central England after up to three inches of snow fell across the region. The Peak District in Derbyshire was the worst affected, but snow also settled in Warwickshire, Leicestershire, Bedfordshire, Sheffield and Birmingham. Rain and milder conditions are expected to clear much of the snow in time for the morning rush hour, according to weather forecasters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/7101122.stm
New Hampshire Ski areas rejoicing with weekend snow
Excerpt: The first major snow of the season brought several inches to New Hampshire’s mountains, allowing ski areas to open and raising hopes of snowmobilers who had a rough season last year. Alice Pearce of Ski NH, which represents several ski areas, says the first snow of the season is always something to get excited about. Waterville Valley and Bretton Woods ski areas are open, with Loon hoping to open on Wednesday.
http://www.wcax.com/Global/story.asp?S=7377805&nav=4QcS
Snow, ice cause accidents in Hungary
Excerpt: Snowing and icy roads have caused some 30 accidents in the country by Sunday noon, spokesman of the national disaster management authority Tibor Dobson told MTI. Cars, trucks and buses slid off the road and had to be rescued by the emergency services, mainly in the western parts of Hungary, where it snowed heavily on Sunday morning. A four-car pile up was reported from Veszprem County by Kislod, and a road accident in Vas County killed one, spokesperson for local police Katalin Peter told MTI. Ski resorts in the Bukk mountains (NE Hungary) reported 20 centimetres of snow on Sunday morning and said ski lifts were operating.
http://english.mti.hu/default.asp?menu=1&theme=2&cat=25&newsid=247791
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Paul – I thought we had progressed from the “its cold today therefore global warming is not happening” sort of argument.
Alas no …..
So what Biggsy?
Do you have a serious point to make?
Okay then – we don’t like cold reports – we only like ones about warmth. Why would that be then?
I like snow reports, I was beginning to think that all that ice melting got lost to outer space – had me worried.
I’m very relieved it has been returned to planet earth, its rightful owners.
I sort of agree with Ender here.
However any warm weather is immediately hyped up in the press as ‘proof’ of AGW.
Do you agree with that Ender or do you think there is no extreme hyperbole in climate reporting in the mainstream press?
WOW – cool but deluded. Paul, just try and remember ‘weather is what you get, climate is what you expect, and climate change is what you did not expect’. Climate change is also about greater variability, wilder extremes. Try to digest too that climate is an abstract concept, it cant be observed, only integrated over time and space too. If you take those simple concepts on board you need never look stupid on climate matters. After all, science is what we do to stop us saying stupid things.
Bazza “Climate change is also about greater variability, wilder extremes.”
Are you suggesting that the snow in the snowfields is evidence of ‘greater variability’ and therefor evidence of AGW?
As I said elsewhere I did a guest post of cool trends and AGW-cool just last year.
http://www.jennifermarohasy.com/blog/archives/001802.html
Adds to Bazza’s sage words.
How many cherries can a cherry plucker pluck?
Paul – “Okay then – we don’t like cold reports – we only like ones about warmth. Why would that be then?’
No I do not favour either as “its hot today therefore global warming is correct” is equally infantile. The fact that you could ask this question shows the shallowness of your thinking.
AGW will be seen, or not seen, in long term trends not todays weather.
I’m still waiting for all of those monster hurricanes that we were supposed to have this year.
Said who Woody?
Paul, you could go and get plucked for a world needing fewer feathers. Reflect too on wise Ender. Now if I thought you post this stuff to show up the silly press, I would congratulate you and sympathise too on your taking on a hopeless task. But that is not why you put this silly stuff up, is it. But it really only makes you look silly. I am asking myself whether it is worse to ignore evidence or to fabricate it to defend your position? I suppose the answer depends on the costs and the damage function and whether you really are a seeker of the truth.
Bazza – Is your purpose here to merely call people who don’t agree with you names and ignore any questions put to you?
Would that everyone would cease and desist from claiming every weather event is due to AGW or demonstrates NO AGW.
Surely we can agree that weather variability has always been with us.
The relevance of these reports is that we have been regaled over the last few years with stories in the press about disappearing snowfields, loss of ski resorts and short winters, yet this isn’t happening.
sorry Lawrie, no, warming stopped in 1998 although it was 36 degrees yesterday in Melbourne so I am thinking we are entering a phase of extreme warming. The evidence, it seems, is self evident.
I only qualify this by saying that in my air conditioned office, temperatures remain steady and so this may be a sign that the extreme warming event does not represent a dangerous trend, just a slightly annoying one.
don’t you get it Lawrie? if you provide enough links to enough news stories… well… how can yuo argue with that?
Clearly Marc Morano, by extensive global research on the internet for news stories to do with snow increasing, has proved that snow is at least not decreasing and ‘more than likely’ (say, 70% confidence?) increasing.
Not only that, this leaves AGW in tatters. Right Paul?
As calendar year 2007 is soon to close, what is the latest on where the year will sit in the grand scheme of things. Remember that in January the UK Met predicted an annual mean of 14.54C
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070104.html
Any news?
The fact that we haven’t been hearing news reports and seeing dramatic press releases along the lines of ” 2007 set to be one of the warmest years on record….” as we did with 2005 , leads me to think it’s been unexceptional Ian.
But 6 weeks to go and then how long to find out?
Anthony
“Clearly Marc Morano, by extensive global research on the internet for news stories to do with snow increasing, has proved that snow is at least not decreasing and ‘more than likely’ (say, 70% confidence?) increasing.”
Have a look at this peice,
http://travel.nytimes.com/2007/11/01/business/01tourism.html?n=Top/News/Science/Topics/Global%20Warmingwell
Such peices are common in todays press.
I think there is nothing wrong with balance.
The difference is that the alarmist peice is speculative while what Marc posted was actual.
I agree Paul, Marc actually proved beyond reasonable doubt (a 50/50 bet) that snow is increasing and definitively (100%) that is is not decreasing.
An absolute credit to e-journalism worldwide. No more of this alarmist clap trap I say! Show me more evidence by blog numbers!!
Ian, the temperature in 2007 is currently a mild 21 degrees (32 outside). I therefore predict all is right in the world.
As you were solider.
It doesn’t “leave AGW in tatters”, but feel free to have conversations with yourself anyway, Anthony.
It’s just that the above snow reports contrast with the gloomy predictions of just a few years ago.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/12/03/1070351593540.html
PS. Try not to get all the Pauls mixed up.
OK Ian – do your worst
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2007/11/10/temperature-2007/ AN opinion !
My apologies to all the Pauls mixed up or being mixed up. I thought there was just one for a while.
Thanks PW, I remain no less convinced and I think we are in agreement (the evidence presented here being overwhelming), the dire predictions of AGW and the tragic loss of the ski tourism industry worldwide are not coming to fruition.
Then theres that little matter of the third world heat islands. If the USA accounts for only 1.5% of the global weighting then there is an awful lot of data that needs close vetting.
Guess we’ll just have to wait for the official monthlys for Nov Dec from Hadley.
Ian, a global average temperature does not exist and the methodology used to calculate the so called ‘global average temperature’ has been shown to be fraudulent. Heat islands, dodgy weather stations and data smoothing by incompetent weather bureau people are behind a conspiracy to show that, in fact, warming stopped in 1998 and maybe even 1934.
If you are in any doubt, please refer to detailed analysis and data provided by posters on this blog.
Note also that the main reason for 2007 being in the top 3 temp group is a much milder than normal Northern hemisphere January.
So how many poor and homeless people survived the winter because of that milder January?
Oh, sorry, I forgot that one of the aims of the brave new green utopia was population reduction, especially by so-called ‘natural’ means.
Well if you to be that silly how many have died in Bangladesh from a warming Indian Ocean and nasty cyclone. And millions homeless. Just another day in the fascist right brown pootopia. But as Schiller has noted darkies die quietly.
Mindless isn’t it?
Yes, good point Ian. In fact, in a warming world we can afford to increase the level of homelessness and wealth inequality because the cost of dealing with cold related health problems diminishes.
All aboard the global warming gravy train!
And how many Aussie farmers are against the wall because the Indian Ocean N/W of Oz is not warming enough… Mindless isn’t it.
Indeed !
Climate Change Could Amplify Drought In East Indian Ocean And Australasia
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Climate_Change_Could_Amplify_Drought_In_East_Indian_Ocean_And_Australasia_999.html
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v445/n7125/abs/nature05477.html
The coral records and model simulations demonstrate that both
ENSO and the Asian monsoon are capable of influencing drought
dynamics in the eastern IOD sector. Historically these influences on
the IOD have tended to oppose each other, because El Nin˜o conditions
have generally led to weaker monsoons. However, there is evidence
indicating that this tight coupling of the Asian monsoon and
ENSO systems has begun to break down over recent decades6. The
weakening of this relationship may be due to systematic changes in
the pattern of Pacific SST anomalies during El Nin˜o events27, or due
to transient greenhouse warming of the Eurasian landmass which
has enabled ENSO-independent strengthening of the Asian monsoon
6,21,22. During the twenty-first century it is expected that greenhouse
warming will cause the Asian monsoon to strengthen
further21,22; however, light-scattering aerosols and land-clearing
may initially reduce monsoon strength before aerosol-control policies
and greenhouse-gas emissions lead to an abrupt return of a more
intense Asian monsoon23.
Our findings raise the possibility that the extent of the rural challenges
posed by future changes in Asian monsoon strength may have
been underestimated. In particular, the later peak that we observe in
IOD droughts during the strong monsoon scenario of the middle
Holocene coincides with the time when rainfall in western Indonesia
is normally at its annual maximum (Supplementary Fig. 4). Hence,
the consequences of such a change in the timing of maximum IOD
drought conditions may be particularly severe. Recent changes in the
ENSO–monsoon relationship further raise the possibility that IOD
droughts could intensify in the future if monsoon forcing acts synergistically
with El Nin˜o (Fig. 4c). Hence, while predictions of changing
monsoon strength have focused on impacts in Asia and India23,28, any
ENSO-independent strengthening of the Asian monsoon will probably
serve to prolong IOD-related droughts in western Indonesia,
and possibly also southern Australia3, thus adding to the socioeconomic
impacts of the IOD.
I guess it’s lucky that it’s not happening right now eh? We have just had record rains and floods in East Africa, we have floods through Thailand and Indonesia, and the wet is kicking in early in the north. The La Nina influence (which by the way has officially not yet been declared and can’t be until at least January) is already being felt in the east – i.e. Guba and the continuing storms up and down the eastern seaboard… etc… etc … etc.
Mindless post – isn’t it.
Wrnost
With due respect you are merely describing a bunch of weather events.
As cherry picked as those Marc posted.
OK I get the picture, climate change is not about the weather.
Some of you seem to be getting very excited about this. Cool reports or warm reports don’t prove never ending warming or cooling, but it’s no surprise these days that any collection of weather events is touted as more evidence of a never ending global warming catastrophe.
In 2005 we were going to need a new category 6 for hurricanes, but the 2006/7 seasons proved to be damp squibs for alarmists. Never mind, they just latch on to the next weather event and project it into the future.
Isn’t it interesting. Events like a bit of ice melting are indicative of global warming.
Events that have ice building up are just weather.
The bull dust that flows from these people requires no cherry picking. Its almost enough to make me allergic to cherries.
Rog squeezes hard – moreover an accumulation of trending weather over time. Weather is what you have, climate is what you expect.
Intellectual knife edge stuff Hasby. Incisive.
Paul – “In 2005 we were going to need a new category 6 for hurricanes, but the 2006/7 seasons proved to be damp squibs for alarmists. Never mind, they just latch on to the next weather event and project it into the future.”
Again you are really shown to be bereft of knowledge. No climate researcher has predicted that AGW will result in more hurricanes. In fact warming may even decrease the amount of Atlantic storms as it could increase wind shear where Atlantic storms spawn in the middle of the ocean. The main prediction that AGW makes is that the resulting storms will be on average more intense which does seem to be happening:
“When Hurricane Felix reached category 5 status, 2007 became one of four recorded Atlantic seasons that have had more than one category 5 storm; the others being 1960, 1961 and 2005, and the only time two Atlantic hurricanes have ever made landfall at Category 5 strength in the same season. Hurricane Humberto also became the fastest developing storm on record to be so close to land. It strengthened from a 35 mph (55 km/h) tropical depression to an 90 mph (150 km/h) hurricane in 14 hours while 15 miles (24 km) off the coast of Texas. September had a record tying 8 storms but the strengths and durations of the storms were low. Hurricane Humberto became the first hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. [1]”
2 large storms both made it to Cat5 which has only happened 4 times in history, twice in the last 2 years. Also this years is the first time in history that 2 Cat5 storms have made landfall. These indicators are telling us that the SSTs in the Gulf are getting higher and feeding these storms which is completely in line with predictions.
There has been no let up in typhoons:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Pacific_typhoon_season
As for the North Indian Cyclones they included Gonu – one of the only cyclones to make it to the Gulf
“Gonu developed from a persistent area of convection in the eastern Arabian Sea on June 1. With a favorable upper-level environment and warm sea surface temperatures, it rapidly intensified to attain peak winds of 240 km/h (150 mph) on June 3, as warned by the India Meteorological Department. Gonu weakened after encountering dry air and cooler waters, and late on June 5 it made landfall on the eastern-most tip of Oman, becoming the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Arabian Peninsula. Intense cyclones like Gonu have been extremely rare over the Arabian Sea, as most storms in this area tend to be small and dissipate quickly.[11]”
Despite what Americans think there is more to the world than the Gulf of Mexico. The intensity of Tropical Storms seems to increasing in line with predictions.
Wasted on them Ender. Far too intelligent. Critical thought not a blog strong point.
History will eventually be kind to the press. They tried hard to make AGW interesting over the last decade by faking balance and stirring up a debate between sceptics and evidence-based science in the interest of stirring up a story and attracting a wider (but less informed) readership. We all will pay for that dearly in terms of lost time in getting a consensus for mitigation. The press are now playing catch-up and still stirring by dramatising. This may result in a more urgent effort at mitigation and even make up for lost time, so we should be a bit grateful, but regret the inevitable dramatising. (this is means and ends stuff). At least the press have clear motives in creating a bigger market. What motivates sceptics.?
You’re right Ender – I must have dreamed up all the press reports about hurricanes etc.
http://www.livescience.com/environment/051020_hurricane_winds.html
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Science/story?id=1986862&page=1
http://www.physorg.com/news67514003.html
What’s wrong with them?
And, of course, they is a body of published papers that refute the (alarmist) claimed link between more intense hurricanes.
What motivates sceptics? That might make a good post on its own. The mistaken and dishonest focus on CO2 as the cause and answer to climate change, the alarmism that goes with it, and the real agenda behind it.
And those papers are rubbish by dudes who should have long retired. In the Australian region you can even notice the fast systems Paul.
Vance, Nancy, Ingrid, Larry, Zoe
It’s the denialists who are dishonest by allowing any old iron to go through with nary a whimper. Archibald? All sing now “any old iron, any any any old iron…” And dishonest to on a daily basis continually misrepresent the science. I mean let’s not kid ourselves how much the bullshit-o-meter is off the scale.
I am encouraged that AGW sceptics have now adapted and moved on. They have found a useful enough little niche with their rearguard action pointing out the alarmist nature of the claims in the press on AGW. Cant argue with that.
Conspiracy theories again, good grief.
The AGW/IPCC bullshit-o-meter may be well off the scale, or maybe it’s tucked away in their little make believe world of virtual reality.
Meanwhile, in the real world, real climate (not “real climate”!) and real weather exists in real time.
Yes indeed and we’re talking observations boofhead.
Yes, and Marc Morano has published above, a few real world observations, which have you ‘medicine men’ dudded.
Like you old mate – cherry plucked. BTW – where’s the BoM link you owe me?
Where is that Upper Murray data you promised?
You got the analysis.