MORE Australians will die from heart attacks, strokes and respiratory diseases as the planet heats up, a study has found.
Instances of obesity, food poisoning, and mosquito-borne diseases such as the deadly Ross River fever are also likely to rise as climate change raises average and extreme temperatures.
The Healthy Planet, Places and People report released yesterday, says mental health in rural areas is also likely to suffer from more frequent and more intense droughts.
Herald Sun: Climate change to lift death toll in Australia
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Tony McMichael is a well-known medical alarmist with no proven skills in any aspect of climatology. That he accepts the CSIRO’s climate predictions without questioning their basis is clear proof of his lack of knowledge.
He seems unaware the mosquito-borne diseases show little correlation to temperature. Mosquitoes survive down to about -10C. Malaria was rife in Europe when global temperatures were below what they are now and a major epidemic occurred in Murmansk, north of the Arctic Circle.
He says that 1500 people die in Australia each year from heat extremes (plural ?) but makes no mention of deaths from cold, which I dare say is a greater problem to homeless people.
McMichael was also the alarmist who predicted dire things for the Northern Territory but was unaware that summer temperatures were higher there back in the early 1990s.
The results of this study were rather predictable from the day it was announced. See http://www.dea.org.au/node/180 .
It’s a nonsense report that should have been strangled at birth.
And what does it say about Research Australia that this person is also leading an investigation into the same topic for them, and one for which he has also just received a $4m Australian Fellowship.
The same old treadmill at work. Define a problem in alarmist and exaggerated terms to stir up the need for funds so that one can produce a predictable outcome, that almost certainly will require yet further funds.
Even if it was to get hotter here in Australia, isnt it funny how people who live in warmer countries now, learn how to cope/adapt,without much difficulty.
I reckon people like John should be given half the money to work with this bunch to make sure they keep their feet on the ground.
What also find disconcerting is that Guss Nossal is the patron of the outfit that engaged McMichael and 9 others to produce this rubbish.
Junkscience indeed.
From Bjorn Lomborg talking about his new book (see http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/issuesideas/story.html?id=d4b3016d-ecae-4f99-a685-44b01913e859&p=2) …
“Research shows that although 298 extra people die each year from it being too hot in Helsinki, some 1,655 people die from it being too cold. …
“…Again, the death toll from excess heat in Athens is 1,376 people each year, whereas the death toll from excess cold is 7,852.
“When 2,000 people died from heat [2003] in the United Kingdom, it produced a public outcry that is still heard. However, the BBC recently ran a very quiet story telling us that deaths caused by cold weather in England and Wales for the past years have hovered around 25,000 each winter, casually adding that the winters of 1998-2000 saw about 47,000 cold deaths each year.
“In Europe as a whole, about 200,000 people die from excess heat each year. However, about 1.5 million Europeans die annually from excess cold. That is more than seven times the total number of heat deaths.”
“casually adding that the winters of 1998-2000 saw about 47,000 cold deaths each year.”
The operative word is ‘casual’. Thats 47,000 inconvenient truths that are not extracted from the drop down menu of climate factoids while the convenient ones get worked over like a prisoner’s lubricant.
Once again we see Spivanthropus climatecretinensis attaching their baggage to an identifiable trend. Did they get the original funding from KFC, or the suppliers of transfats?
“Tony McMichael is a well-known medical alarmist with no proven skills in any aspect of climatology. That he accepts the CSIRO’s climate predictions without questioning their basis is clear proof of his lack of knowledge.”
He does what experts do, he respects their opinion. If everyone went out and questioned every one else’s science, that would be the end of the progress of science. It is specialisation that has allowed science to fourish in such a spectacular way.
Well SJT, it’s a poor scientist that doesn’t check the credibility of unreviewed reports on which he bases his claims.
It doesn’t require a PhD in climatology to find truck-sized holes in the CSIRO report. Any fool can do it. Go and a try …
What utter duplicity and nonsense. Is there something one can do about extreme winter mortality climate wise?
If so what? Will winter extremes suddenly vanish in a warming world. Will seasons disappear?
Speaking about distortions please inform us as to what exactly these “cold weather” deaths are attributed to – exposure or what?
Of course temperature rise will extend the range of insects – and guess which direction. There’s many more example other than Malaria – the usual excuse denialist entomological anchor.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19626253.400-editorial-bluetongue-virus-springs-nasty-surprise.html
SO BLUETONGUE virus is in northern Europe, perhaps to stay. While its arrival was predictable, the manner of its appearance was quite the opposite. It comes as a timely warning of the surprises that might be in store as global warming upsets the exquisite balance between Earth’s creatures.
Bluetongue is a virus of ruminants that is carried by biting flies called midges (or in some places, no-see-ums). It is resident in the tropics and in warm areas of North America and Australia, where livestock have mostly evolved resistance. Since 1998 it has crept north into Europe as the tropical midge that carries it has moved into new territory (see http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn12756).
The disease’s path precisely tracked the pattern of increasing night-time and winter temperatures. Europe’s livestock have no resistance, and as the midge moved through Italy, Iberia, southern France and the Balkans, bluetongue killed more than a million sheep.
Scientists warned in 2002 that northern European midges can carry bluetongue too, and might pick up where the southern midge left off. Then in 2006 the virus sprang a surprise: a South African strain, different from the viruses then creeping northwards, appeared in the Netherlands and spread rapidly across northern Europe. In August 2007 the same strain surfaced again: it had overwintered, though no one quite knows how. One idea is that it may lurk, ingeniously, in cows’ immune cells.
This was not a simple matter of a disease-carrying insect moving north but complicated nature adapting in complicated ways. Global warming had created conditions in northern Europe that allowed a one-off infection to explode. Midge species that normally do not carry bluetongue can do so when it gets warmer. They have temperature-sensitive genes. As the climate warms, the midges grow faster and have thinner gut walls, which the virus can penetrate. Warmer, wetter weather means more flies, while the virus replicates faster. A perfect combination for invasion.
There is more waiting in the wings. West Nile virus is affected by warming in similar ways to bluetongue, as are its relatives such as St Louis encephalitis virus and other insect-borne maladies such as chikungunya and Rift Valley fever, which has already moved out of Africa. African horse sickness can go wherever bluetongue goes. Farmers just beyond bluetongue’s reach in North America and Australia may be no safer than Europe was.
Who knows what other plagues of people, animals or crops will follow from global warming? We are about to find out.
Oh goody,thanks Luke.
I was wondering what Mother Nature intended to do for the population explosion.
“– Is there something one can do about extreme winter mortality climate wise?”
Yes, apparantly there is, if one was so inclined- create more Co2.
Human brainpower and money ought to be concentrated on extant medical problems in the here and now.
John
anyone can drive a truck through science, doesn’t take much skill at all. Doesn’t mean much when you do it, though.
But why Malcolm – you tell me it doesn’t do anything. Have you changed your mind?
What I think about it is irrelevant.
You are the one asking the question,(as to how do we reduce the death rates from extreme cold), I thought that given your well documented propensity for supporting Co2 alone as the primary cause of all warming, I would point out the obvious.
Perhaps we should be adding Cognitive Dissonance to the list of Lukeys disorders.
No you can’t have it both ways Malcolm.
Will AGW mean winters will no longer occur ever again – your reference being what??
I thought I would point out the obvious.
Dear ducking and weaving Luke, Your comment about bluetongue disases is pointless without a clear indication of the range of temperatures in which that midge will live.
In your example the bluetongue “suddenly appeared” in The Netherlands. That looks very like it hitched a ride on a ship rather than flapped its little wings all the way from Africa. If I recall correct, northern Iceland gets plagues of midges every summer, as does Lapland, so why should anyone be surprised that a midge survived in Amsterdam.
“Who knows what other plagues of people, animals or crops will follow from global warming? We are about to find out.”
We’ve found out. It’s a plague of believers with tunnel vision and unable to consider a wider picture. Not one has any proof that humans have caused global warming – and if you say that you do please rush it over to the IPCC because they have no proof in their WG I report and no credible support from the reviewers.
What utter utter rubbish John – Try doing entomology 101 mate – it about poikilotherms. And midges aren’t all midges you ecological ignoramus.
These insects are very mobile and the relevant sub-species would have been there years ago if there was no fundamental ecological limitation.
“The disease’s path precisely tracked the pattern of increasing night-time and winter temperatures. Europe’s livestock have no resistance, and as the midge moved through Italy, Iberia, southern France and the Balkans, bluetongue killed more than a million sheep.”
The Netherlands case is a stark demonstration of how a previously exotic organism can survive in a now warmed environment. Different mechanism of introduction perhaps but AGW relevant nonetheless.
Bluetongue Outbreak Has African Roots
By Martin Enserink
ScienceNOW Daily News
29 August 2006
The deadly livestock virus that has taken the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany by surprise this month did not come from southern Europe, as researchers had suspected. A genetic analysis, announced yesterday, has shown that the Bluetongue virus almost certainly originated in Africa, deepening the mystery of how it reached northern Europe.
First seen in the Netherlands on 14 August, the virus, which infects ruminants and is transmitted by Culicoides biting midges, has spread to more than 70 farms in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany (ScienceNOW, 25 August). Bluetongue sickens primarily sheep and goats and is not harmful to humans. There are 24 known “serotypes” of the virus, and over the past 8 years, a handful of them had made dramatic incursions from Turkey and the Middle East into southern European countries such as Greece, Italy, Spain, and the Balkan nations. Hence, scientists had assumed that the disease’s arrival in northern Europe marked another leap north from one of these areas.
The leap is much bigger than they thought. Frantic days of genetic testing, completed very early Saturday morning at the Institute for Animal Health (IAH) in Pirbright, United Kingdom, has revealed the virus to be of serotype 8, previously known to occur only in sub-Saharan Africa, South America, and the Indian subcontinent, says Peter Mertens, who heads IAH’s arthropod-borne virus research group. Its genetic fingerprint is closest to that of a virus isolated in Nigeria in 1982, which means it almost certainly came from Africa, Mertens says.
But how? There’s almost no traffic of ruminants between Africa and Europe, says epidemiologist Aline de Koeijer of the Central Institute for Animal Disease Control (CIDC) in Lelystad, the Netherlands. Perhaps an imported zoo animal was infected, she suggests; veterinary authorities in the affected countries are trying to track down possible culprits. An infected midge may also have hitched a ride on an airplane, as happens occasionally with malaria-infected mosquitoes. Yet it would then have to find its way to a farm. The current outbreak is unusual in that some cows have gotten sick–normally, they are infected without clinical symptoms–but it’s unclear whether this is typical of serotype 8, which has been studied very little, says CIDC virologist Eugène van Rooij.
Once introduced, the virus may have benefited from the warm weather, which speeds up its life cycle, says medical and veterinary entomologist Willem Takken of Wageningen University in the Netherlands; July was the hottest month on record in the affected areas. Scientists are certain that the outbreak will subside as temperatures drop; they can only hope that the northern European winter will kill off all infected midges and prevent a 2007 sequel.
Bluetongue has been observed in Australia, the USA, Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Europe. Its occurrence is seasonal in the affected Mediterranean countries, subsiding when temperatures drop and hard frosts kill the adult midge vectors. Bluetongue has been spreading northward since October 1998, perhaps as a result of global warming,[4] which may promote viral survival and vector longevity during milder winters.[5] In August 2006, cases of bluetongue were found in the Netherlands, then Belgium, Germany, and Luxembourg.[6][7] In September 2007, the UK reported its first ever suspected case of the disease, in a Highland cow on a rare breeds farm near Ipswich, Suffolk. [8] Since then the virus has spread from cattle to sheep in Britain.[9] By October 2007 bluetongue had become a serious threat in Scandinavia and Switzerland.[10] Although the disease is not a threat to humans the most vulnerable common domestic ruminants in the UK are cattle, goats and, especially, sheep.
Add this to similar outbreaks such as pine beetle
The beetle is responsible for massive damage to lodgepole pine forests in Canada where a recent reduction in the severity of winters in British Columbia has allowed the population to explode. It is feared that global warming will cause this problem to intensify. Canadian forestry officials have allowed increased logging to remove beetle-damaged trees, but remain worried that without a return of cold snaps to reduce beetle populations, the beetles will make their way across the Canadian Rockies and decimate the forests in the tourist region of Banff, Alberta, and the boreal forest regions, which account for nearly one third of the world’s total forest area. Logging in the beetle-infested areas reduces the risk of forest fires by removing dead wood, and also allow surviving stands to recover and regrow faster. Controlled forest fires are administered to the worst affected areas in order to reduce the insect population.
Mountain pine beetle infestations have already been reported as far north as northern British Columbia, Jasper National Park and northwestern Alberta. Unlike the forests in British Columbia, Alberta’s forests have evolved without widespread beetle outbreaks because the winters on the eastern slopes of the Rockies are generally colder and more prone to periods of very cold weather, where temperatures down to -30°C to -40°C (-22°F to -40°F) for at least several days kills most mountain pine beetles. The recently mild winters have Alberta forestry officials worried because the beetles will have a devastating impact on an ecosystem which may be ill-equipped naturally to deal with it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_pine_beetle
TEMPERATURE is a fundamental limitation to the range of many insects and their growth rates.
With some estimates of up to 30% of the world’s food supply consumed by insects a warmer world will see more generations, developing faster and with better munching ability.
Your comments about humans not contributing to GW are from your own blinkered denialist bias nothing else. Rampant personal opinion John backed up by your skanky little op-ed rants probably defending some misplaced religious or moral nuttery. How the atmosphere can demonstrably sink extra radiative flux and have no effect requires some significant explanation.
Don’t you guys get sick if coming up with hundreds of different contradicting explanations for many diverse lines of evidence for something that’s pretty bloody obvious. It’s called DENIALISM.
The poster child of epidemiological denialsim – malaria – is about to be run over by a swag of better examples – old diseases and pests moving into new turf.
But as Bob would say – why worry – it’s all happened before and the rocks are all still here.
God you are a cretin Walker
My authorative text is the same of your own. It is that source of all knowledge, and the worlds greatest scientist, you know who, Al Gore himself.
Malcolm exposed for being a gimp does his nana.
Gosh, a spreading disease killed a million sheep. Circle the wagons, stop the world. Our Ministers for the Environment casually look the other way as 30 million ‘Roos die a miserable death each drought. They neither supplement their feed or make any effort to cull the herd but will criticise a farmer for failing to conserve his fodder reserves faster than you can say Urban Spiv.
Tropical animals have already developed resistance so a vaccine couldn’t be too far away. Unless it is left to the EPA to come up with a solution.
Sheesh.
This is not rocket science.
Increases in human-induced increases in CO2 contribute directly, i.e., causally, to increased human longevity.
Which means an increase in diseases associated with old age.
Work the proven causality the other way, you will find that forced reductions in CO2 will reduce human life expectancy.
Exactly what you would expect from people who believe that our worst “invention” was the domestication of fire.
Luke will likely chime in and say he eats only uncooked, dead things at our planet’s “average” temperature.
Of course, eating like that will please the ghost of Malthus and kill billions, which is–actually–on the agenda for a number of eco-whacko groups.
WTF – can someone translate?
Anyway – some interesting try-ons from the dedicated looney right.
That those concerned about AGW
(1) somehow don’t understand how energy is related to standard of living
(2) would like to see us live in caves
Conversely the looney right are usually the last to acknowledge many technologies have side-effects which need to be mitigated; often with better technology or different technology.
Make no mistake Schiller – Exxon will sell you the carbon neutral technology when the time comes.
Luke,
You complain that “those concerned about AGW… somehow don’t understand how energy is related to standard of living.”
Lovely.
Now tell me: by how many years should we reduce human life expectancy to “combat AGW”?
AGW proponents also like malaria in Africa because it reduces the number of humans.
Even so, make no mistake: if “Exxon will sell you the carbon neutral technology when the time comes,” the greenfreaks will oppose it. Just because it comes from Exxon.
Just like the greenfreaks oppose resource-preserving GM crops, merely because Monsanto sells some.
Give it up, Luke. You don’t give a %#!& about the planet, you’re just a neo-Marxist hoping to establish something that the failed Soviet empire couldn’t.
What utter utter drivel. Really are you totally bereft of all intelligence.
“how many years should we reduce human life expectancy to “combat AGW”?” – ummm zero –
conversely how much will life expectancy be reduced if you don’t !!!!
You may have noticed that people do tend to die in climate extremes and episodic events.
AGW proponents like malaria ? – NO not at all – you just pulled that out of your festering neo-con backside. If you’re such a s bleeding heart for Africa get your military in intervene in Darfur and Zimbabwe. And ban US tobacco companies addicting a whole new generation of Africans. But you wouldn’t go near that would you, you hypocritical slime.
Greenfreaks will oppose it? Well I don’t know any greenfreaks so I don’t know. I won’t oppose it.
GM crops – I don’t have a problem. You may note I have written very positive comments on a number of occasions on GM cotton.
Neo-marxist am I – well you don’t know me but if you did and put that to my friends and colleagues they’d simply say – I think you’re confused with someone else.
But true to form Schiller-scum you are a died in wool neo-con, devoid of any discriminating ability, going down your checklist that big business has given you. Your myopic world model has no room for diversity of thought or action.
You’re locked in a cold war that doesn’t exist.
Indeed the more I see from you neo-conners – you’re anti-diversity, anti-choice and really from your love of protectionist subsidies – anti-capitalist.
And you love to start wars as an excuse to get what you want.
Don’t lecture me about democratic freedoms boyo – you’re living in a nation where most don’t vote, where a single individual has ridiculous levels of executive power, and national elections come down to decided whether little bits of paper are punched through or not. What bullshit.
You couldn’t lay straight in bed neo-con scumoid !
Isn’t it interesting that more drought is going to be bringing us more mosquitoes.
“It comes as a timely warning of the surprises that might be in store as global warming upsets the exquisite balance between Earth’s creatures.”
ROFLMAO.
Once again Luke trots out his arsenal of AGW morons. There has never, ever, been and “exquisite balance between Earth’s creatures”. Species have come and gone and moved forever. The climate has been warmer than today several times in the past 10,000 years. Luke’s moron uses romantic poetry to evoke images of manless perfection that anyone with two braincells to rub together could recognize as pure drivel. But then Luke doesn’t have two brain cells to rub together, so we must excuse him.