As we have seen over the past year, drought can take an emotional, as well as financial toll on farmers, placing individuals, families and local communities under extraordinary stress.
Helping people cope under such pressure is essential but the challenges of a changing climate demand a visionary new approach in the way Australia deals with drought.
Read the rest of the ABC News article, ‘Drought: secure today, but prepare for tomorrow.’
Thanks to Luke Walker for this article.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
There’s nothing new about this drought.
From, and perhaps prior to, 1910 though to 1949 annual average rainfall was about on par with recent levels. The Federation Drought 1895-1902 likewise forced a lot of farmers off the land.
I’m surprised that the National Farmers Federation is saying such a mixture of alarmism and the bleedin’ obvious. Perhaps they’ve figured out that if there’s a global warming gravy train they might as well try to catch a lift.
Just keep saying that John over and over and hanging on. Squeeze those hands real tight.
Reality:
Inflows in Murray system and SE Queensland are WORST on record by a country mile.
Evaporative demand of Millenium drought has surpassed the Federation drought. You know why 🙂
All mainland state capital cities have water supply supply issues.
It’s not all El Nino effects. Neutral – non-El Nino years have also not delivered.
No farmers have accepted the government’s package to leave the land. Stoicism – perhaps misplaced – who knows.
Playing with blunt averages is the sophists’ trick. Any modelling of wheat yield, pasture growth or inflows shows this multi-year sequence is dreadful. Blunt averages don’t show crop failures and lack of runoff. Seasonality and distribution of rainfall is very important.
Farm bank accounts know all about the multi-year sequence of blow after blow!
Any realistic analysis of this drought blows the Federation drought into the weeds. It’s utterly irresponsible to say otherwise. Denialism to the max.
You just can’t believe it can you. You just can’t believe it’s happening in front of your eyes.
Time to recover if it rains tomorrow – maybe a decade.
Your trite treatmnet of David Crombie comments show that denialists aren’t interested in anything but their own self interest.
No solutions, no sympathy offered. Except “no it’s not a problem”. Tell that to those affected.
The real message is a cry to innovate in the face of climate changes and assistance to do so.
QUOTE “We can better drought-proof Australia, and we need to. Innovative farmers who are properly empowered will link with scientists to develop systems and practices that are region-specific and boost drought resilience.”
Your solution John “of don’t worry about it”. Yep the usual USEFUL denialist comment (NOT!). Shall we send the farmers to you for advice?
In the comment section of the above article was this; “I would have thought that farmers should be self sufficient for food, even during a drought. If farmers are going hungry – it says to me that the land they are farming probably isn’t viable.”
This just goes to show how some people have no idea what farmers do, they have this dad + dave concept of chooks, vegie patch, house cow when in reality it is a time/space risk management business.
One cattle judge I met said he has no time to spare for home kill, they get all their meat at Woolies.
Australian sandalwood (Santalum spicatum) specifically for oilseed production!
4000 hectares gone in this year taking total Australian area in excess of 10,000 hectares making it the fastest growing tree crop in the sub 600mm rainfall zones. And it is certainly the only dryland tree crop able to produce a viable food production base in this rainfall zone.
Its legume based and native so no nitrogen needed and negligable phosphorus inputs.
All this is happening in Western Australia where farmers are investing in the future while they have the equity available to do so. No use waiting until you have a dust bowl on your hands and no spare cash.
Funding should be going to resource the growth of truly sustainably food production in this country!
http://www.sandalwood.org.au
http://www.australianuts.com
Dearie me Luke, you’re at it again and just as devoid of substance.
The Federation drought, running over 8 years 1895-1902, had a greater impact on the Australian economy because primary industry far outweighed mining and commercial businesses.
Inflows to the Murray river system are been greatly altered by the amount of irrigation and the number of upstream dams.
All mainland capital cities have failed to match their water storage capability with their population.
It doesn’t take an El Nino event to switch off the great tap-in-the-sky. Conditions have been near the threshold for most of the last 6 years, in fact for most of the last 30 years, that being the time of the Great Pacific Climate Shift.
This drought should not come as any surprise and there’s no reason to believe that its cause is somehow unnatural.
Drought-proofing Australia is not an option because it would require vast storages (closed or underground to prevent evaporation) and a huge network of pipes. Mitigation and planning are the best options as any sensible farmer knows.
More denialist nonsense from John.
Did he say Crombie storages?
Are we talking overall impact on the economy – no we’re talking drought impacts on farm and in basin.
– all capital cities have climate issues matched by lack of infrastructure, profligate waste of water, population issues.
SE Queensland has lowest inflows on record by a country mile – way past Federation drought. Ditto for Murray. You can go argue with the engineers if you’re think you’re up to it.
Great Pacific Climate wank you mean. The Great Pacific climate wank that changes Antarctic circulation – what a load of denialist crap.
So if the drought doesn’t come as a srprise why are we surprised – why do we need billions in drought aid if we’re NOT surprised. You haven’t got a clue mate and you don’t give a stuff either.
Oh for goodness sake Luke get a grip on your self – you are the biggest bellyacher in both centuries.
Did you see the ad? kev07?
http://www.kevin07.com.au/fresh-ideas/climate-change-water/climate-change-our-greatest-challenge-yet.html
He has some fresh ideas on climate change.
Inflows into the Murray-Darling Basin continue to set new record lows in recent months The southern half of the Basin received light to moderate rainfall recently.
Significant climate change has affected rainfall and run-off in the Basin since the mid 70s, as it did between the mid 50s to mid 60s and the mid 20s to 1940.
But the current drought has not broken any natural pattern, because there is no obvious pattern.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/timeseries.cgi [Murray/ Darling Basin]
What has changed in the last 100 years is the type and intensity of agriculture in the Darling headwaters.
Luke: We saw Paul Perkins, former head of ACTEW on ABC Stateline only yesterday praising the proposed new infrastructure but what he said about the long term future of Canberra as a viable city based on current inflows was riveting. No Transcript yet
http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/act/default.htm
Farmers downstream can expect precious little too it seams and the NSW govt are likely to sit on all Snowy water (no environment flows as promised) till it all pans out this season. High level storage for agriculture is most likely to be reserved only for town supplies this season.
If this is not climate change, I will eat my hat a Greg Norman akubra tomorrow.
Chrisgo – you guys are going to have to get a bit more sophisticated and stop using such blunt instruments and uninformed analyses. Gavin is correct.
Slide 7 here shows why
http://www.greenhouse2007.com/downloads/keynotes/071002_Mummery.pdf
See slide 4 here
http://www.greenhouse2007.com/downloads/keynotes/071004_Cai.pdf
At some point the penney may drop with you guys – available water = rainfall – evaporation + antecedent conditions
The drought for runoff is off the scale !!
Same in SEQ.
Rog
fantasy as comforter is self deceiving claptrap. You complain that Luke calls a spade a spade. What do you want him to do, tell you that’s OK to believe in the tooth fairy if that’s what’s going to make you happy?
‘Chrisgo – you guys are going to have to get a bit more sophisticated and stop using such blunt instruments and uninformed analyses’
Posted by: Luke at October 27, 2007 10:24
http://www.greenhouse2007.com/downloads/keynotes/071002_Mummery.pdf
I’m baffled.
What do the annual rainfall and runoff to a Perth WA water storage have to do with the Murray/Darling basin [rhetorical].
http://www.greenhouse2007.com/downloads/keynotes/071004_Cai.pdf
Sorry, I fail to see any AGW influence, I wouldn’t reject it, I just don’t see it.
Uh-oh, now there’s an Adventist at the door I have to piss off.
Cai is MDB, Mummery is Perth yep. Just an add-in on same syndrome that runoff is off the scale. Of course you don’t see an precise AGW influence – do you expect to see “hello I’m the wiggle on the left”. But runoff deficit is worst everywhere and the drought sequence ongoing. Middle non-El Nino years are also not delivering.
SE Qld dam catchment has the same sort of syndrome and is also off the scale.
These are serious national declines in runoff. Also see previous slides in Mummery and Cai.
What does Perth have to do with Murray-Darling – it’s called multi-factor southern hemisphere climate change.
You task as an incisive thinker is to see if the southern hemisphere circulation patterns that cause this drought sequence might have an AGW related influence and whether evaporation is now worse. BUT also who says it’s all AGW. AGW does not suddenly suspend natural variability. It builds on it.
You have every interesting things according to Cai going on with El Nino, SAM, IOD, Tasman Sea, evaporative demand, latitude of the high pressure belts, and blocking patterns.
Ignorance taxes about to be placed on all posters in the form of doubled food prices by Christmas. $50 t-bones just around the corner. Drought-proofing by this stage will be more focussed on the term food security.
All the smartest economic minds are calling for a boom in agricultural commodities the likes no-one has ever known. Get your inflation hedges in place folks. Own stocks like AAC (up 20% last week), IPL (up 1000% in the last 2 years), NUF, RWD and MAK. Or start learning how to trade ag commodities. Disposable income to food will rise to 50% in the next few years for the average household. The last 50 years have been an anomaly in history, just like cheap oil has.
In the NSW tablelands, the drop in rainfall appears to be related to El Nino. It was certainly dry from 1900 to 1940, but whether there is a human factor in the recent rainfall decline/greater El Nino frequency is very hard to say. The 6 years from 2001 to 2006 have been especially dry:
mean rainfall: 1900-2006 851mm
mean rainfall: 1900-1940 791mm
mean rainfall: 1940-2000 911mm
mean rainfall: 2001-2006 711mm
I had to look hard to find a drier spell than 01-06, and there was only one: 1936 to 1941 with a mean of 672mm.
But it’s the persistent heat that has made this “drought” really bad. October 2007 in SE NSW, where maximum anomalies are up to +4°C (more like December) could be the hottest on record – eclipising 1988.
The challenges Australia faces re water and food are much more to do with excessive population. Early last century there weren’t so many mouths to feed, so drought wasn’t such an issue. If recent trends (heat + dry) continue, the future for this country, apart from mining, could be very bleak.