From ABC News:
New northern ice age could send refugees to Aust
A new study from the Australian National University (ANU) has found that this country may not be as severely affected by a new ice age as countries in the Northern Hemisphere.
ANU paleoclimatologist Timothy Barrows and his fellow researchers used a new dating technique that measures the radioactive elements in some rocks.
Dr Barrows explains that Europe is at risk of a new ice age as a result of global warming.
“There are some fears that warming in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly around the Greenland ice sheet, might cause quite a bit of meltwater to come into the North Atlantic Ocean,” he said.
Read the whole article.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
There is some circular logic here – global warming will cause peripheral melting of the Greenland ice sheet, affecting the gulf stream which will then plunge Europe into an ice age.
Presumably Greenland is part of this system so it will then not melt but refreeze itself, negating the effect of adding fresh water into the gulf stream which will then pull Europe out of an ice age.
Amazing what you an do with computer modelling – suspend the laws of physics and with it common sense.
Mesmerised they are with their virtual models ion their expensive ivory towers.
I think Barrows has been watching AIT.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/314/5802/1064a
A closer look at the Atlantic Ocean’s currents has confirmed what many oceanographers suspected all along: There’s no sign that the ocean’s heat-laden “conveyor” is slowing.
Read more – subscription required:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/314/5802/1064a
Science 17 November 2006:
Vol. 314. no. 5802, p. 1064
DOI: 10.1126/science.314.5802.1064a
News of the Week
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE:
False Alarm: Atlantic Conveyor Belt Hasn’t Slowed Down After All
Richard A. Kerr
Not this Atlantic conveyor collapse bull$hit, AGAIN?
From ABC – Australian Baloney on Carbon.
We have the BBC – British Baloney on Carbon.
Biggsy you are so funny you could be the next Benny Hill.
As an alternative, replace ‘carbon’ with ‘climate.’
Most people seem to think I look like Rick Moranis – ‘honey I shrunk the glacier?’
…or, ‘honey I blew up the greenhouse.’
All this concern by the ABC about TGGWC misrepresenting Wunsch’s views on AGW but not a squeak about these turkeys consistently ignoring Wunsch’s conclusion that Atlantic Conveyor would not collapse in a million years.
Just another day for the ScumBC.
Don’t know about Barrows but about time we got some precision into these discussions and give Mottsa some Atlantic Oceanography 101. There is a bit difference between the Gulf Stream and the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). So when we say “conveyor” what do we actually mean? About the only MOC Ian will get is a Mocca instead of his cafe latte. Of course I’ve tried to tell him all this before.
Anyway worth a read for MOC nerds (I’m in recovery).
“Since the winds will continue to blow and the Earth continue to turn, does this mean that there can’t be any changes to the MOC? Emphatically no.” says RC
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/carl-wunsch-the-economist-and-the-gulf-stream/
Luke:Your beloved Gavin over at real climate is slapping down your equally beloved Tim Flannery
I knew it would end in tears
Gavin has always said what he thinks, of Flannery or anyone else.
What’s your point?
Gavin is saying “Don’t exaggerate”
Which doesn’t leave Flannery with much to say
Except on “our” ABC
Oh he got a little smack from Gavin – he should be honoured. However I’m not sure Gavin disgested what he actually said. But if you’re naughty no matter who you are you get a smack (from Gavin).
Luke sidesteps the fact that the volume of fresh water needed to significantly alter the salinity and density of the North Atlantic waters is so great as to be completely beyond any realistic probability. It is just another variation on “tipping point” theory and just as bogus as the original.
Excerpt from the sceptics dictionary;
“Tipping point; An imaginary point, in what passes for logical sequences in the mind of a moron, or person otherwise burdened by cognitive deficiency, eg. by substance abuse, ideology, schizophrenia, bi-polar etc, beyond which the subject no longer feels under any obligation to base speculative extrapolations on relevant facts and realistic probability. Particularly associated with extreme pessimism. See IPCC, Hansen et al, gonzo science.”
Ummm – well maybe you can explain the paleo evidence that says just that. Really slack return point Ian.
Oh, do you mean the paleo evidence from periods before Greenland even split from Europe? The paleo evidence from periods when ocean floor tectonic changes are far more plausible explanations for changes in oceanic circulation?
No the paleo evidence that indicates a slowdown in the MOC. Not as far back as you’re citing. I see you’ve decided to be silly and go “la la la lah” I’m not listening.
And not even a cognitive synapse has fired on the concept that the Gulf Stream and MOC are different. Sigh….
Gavin also has a critique of Flannery’s book on his website, if you care to read it. He disagrees with a few things Flannery says in the book, as well.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/my-review-of-books/
Yeah, right , Luke. Major currents in a single circulating oceanic mass are independent and mutually exclusive. And I’m the one supposedly in la la land?
So why does the flow vary at all then. There is significant decadal variability demonstrated in the last 50 years.
“While in one sense the water flow associated with the MOC does contribute to the Gulf Stream, it is definitely the junior partner, and so any changes in the MOC are not going to threaten the Gulf Stream in any existential way.”
And some quality science on evidence:
Nature 428, 834-837 (22 April 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature02494; Received 2 January 2004; Accepted 16 March 2004
Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes
J. F. McManus1, R. Francois2, J.-M. Gherardi3, L. D. Keigwin1 & S. Brown-Leger2
Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA
Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’environnement, Domaine de CNRS, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Correspondence to: J. F. McManus1 Email: jmcmanus@whoi.edu
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is widely believed to affect climate. Changes in ocean circulation have been inferred from records of the deep water chemical composition derived from sedimentary nutrient proxies1, but their impact on climate is difficult to assess because such reconstructions provide insufficient constraints on the rate of overturning2. Here we report measurements of 231Pa/230Th, a kinematic proxy for the meridional overturning circulation, in a sediment core from the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. We find that the meridional overturning was nearly, or completely, eliminated during the coldest deglacial interval in the North Atlantic region, beginning with the catastrophic iceberg discharge Heinrich event H1, 17,500 yr ago, and declined sharply but briefly into the Younger Dryas cold event, about 12,700 yr ago. Following these cold events, the 231Pa/230Th record indicates that rapid accelerations of the meridional overturning circulation were concurrent with the two strongest regional warming events during deglaciation. These results confirm the significance of variations in the rate of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation for abrupt climate changes.
*************
Summary of paleo research
http://dels.nas.edu/basc/crc1106/KeigwinNAS%20talk.ppt
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Of course how it all interacts with anthropogenic global warming is key – this gets very interesting towards the end of the following – an opinion of course.
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/pubs/Seager_NYAS_GulfStream.pdf
concludes saying …. that AGW overwhelmns any MOC influence
“The climate system is so rich, complex, and still
not well understood that the current emphasis on
the limited impacts of the Gulf Stream and North
Atlantic Ocean circulation is a serious distraction of effort and resources when many regions of the world face a truly worrying future, even in the near term.
Priorities should shift to:
Subtropical droughts
Summer heat waves
Loss of glacial ice forcing sea level rise
Severe storms and extreme weather
Water, water, water (and not so much temperature)”
Some good topics in that list for Australians.
The key word in your quotes above is “concurrent”. These overturnings are responses to climate change, not drivers of climate change.
They also relate to periods of relative warming that took place when the UK was still mostly covered in ice (17500 years ago).
This line of argument, that all this has taken place before therefore it could take place again is bogus. The circumstances now are very much different to those of the past. Is that such a hard issue to comprehend?
Ah – so we’ve now come from the MOC cannot possibly slow down to “weeeell maybe it has”.
Congratulations, Luke.
I accept that a slow down has taken place in the past. But I do not accept that a phenomena that takes place during a period of glaciation is likely to be replicated at the top of an interglacial warm period.
Are you so short of victories that a simple concession of fact must be gloated over as if it were vindication of your essentially bogus argument? Chalk and cheese.
You moved from a previously immovable position ! If you move once you can move again.
But you see in all this you’ve never bothered to ask me whether I think it’s likely anytime soon.
I guess you probably agree with your mate Wunschy that fresh water is the ‘deus ex machina’ of climate change. We’ll see. Watch that MOC !
I don’t understand you fellas humoring Luke and his RC link. The abrupt climate change ocean observatory data makes Moc a moot point.
These chuckleheads based their theories on a couple boat rides in the gulf stream. Full time bouys proved that the Moc varys wildly on a day to day basis but that the amplitude stays constant over time. And this is the same Gavin who patted himself on the back for whispering into his hand “bull skat”, as his fellow climate change travellers preached the thermohaline turnover method.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/climate-science/oceans/
But it’s good to see Luke doing the hard research to dig out that lost nugget proving that Doc Gavin is of two minds on the subject.
That way when the real data comes in Gavin can point out to his syncophant how he’s “not even wrong”.
Well you see James it depends on what I’ve been saying all along doesn’t it. You assume a lot. Go back and read carefully ! Someone has to educate you numb nuts.
It depends what you understand by the thermohaline doesn’t it. What do you think it means James.