An unusual paper has appeared in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social Change:
Sunspots, GDP and the stock market
Theodore Modis
Abstract
A correlation has been observed between the US GDP and the number of sunspots as well as between the Dow
Jones Industrial Average and the number of sunspots. The data cover 80 years of history. The observed correlations permit forecasts for the GDP and for the stock market in America with a future horizon of 10 years. Both being above their long-term trend they are forecasted to go over a peak around Jun-2008.
The paper concludes:
…..If one accepts that there must be some correlation between GDP growth and stock-market growth as
displayed in Fig. 5, then one cannot use the lack of scientific proof as an argument against the existence of
correlation between the stock market and sunspots (Fig. 2), or between GDP and sunspots (Fig. 4). On the
other hand, if these correlations are real, then we can venture long-range forecasts for the DJIA and the GDP….
….The levels forecasted here for the DJIA of 13908 in mid 2008 and 7919 in early 2014….
Well, we won’t have to wait too long to test the mid 2008 prediction. There’s time enough for Lockwood & Frohlich to debunk The Great GDP Sunspot Swindle, and for James Hansen to make several adjustments.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
I think you’ll find the Chicago Futures boys and girls will have run these already if there was anything there (like the SOI).
The 2008 prediction won’t prove diddly squat whichever way it goes.
Where’s the double cross validation or 6 or so independent predictions ? ROTFL without it.
Ask McIntyre for a tutorial on the relevant stats 🙂
Posted for a bit of fun!
I keep saying it and no-one listens that AGW is linked to the declining number of Pirates. Just look at this graph and it stands out.
http://www.venganza.org/about/open-letter/
Fellow pastafarians will see this.
There is a strong correlation between the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and Bob Brown’s age. Could Bob be the cause? Must we Greens admit responsibility for Brown?
Well ender, your declining pirates theory is definitely the most plausible, of any I have heard since the Y2K one was proven a hoex.
I think it was one of those computer theories, which are all likely to be hoaxes, with all these out of work computer science graduates, trying to generate some work.
Now, if only we can get them to be real pirates, rather than virtual ones.
Are the warriors in the battle against ‘climate change’ now trying to laugh it off as a practical joke?
Ah! The idiot-pesant have spoke!