Thanks to Luke Walker for blog post title and The Sydney Mornig Herald article:
Three-headed dog cruels spring hopes
DROUGHT-STRICKEN farmers could face spring rainfall that is up to 40 per cent below average because of a rare weather pattern last seen 40 years ago.
A CSIRO scientist, Wenju Cai, told the Greenhouse 2007 conference in Sydney yesterday that Australia was experiencing an unusual combination of two events: a La Nina phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean in the east, and an Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon in the west.
“The only time in [recorded] history we had this kind of combination was in 1967,” he said.
In that year, spring was extremely dry in the south and east of the country, and this could provide an indication of what was ahead in the next few months, he said.
Although La Nina usually brings more rainfall to eastern Australia, it appeared to have been overwhelmed in 1967 by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which reduces rainfall across Australia, including in the south-east.
Dr Cai said that, overall, the projection in coming decades was for reduced rainfall in winter and spring in southern Australia, with a decline of up to 15 per cent by 2070.
“There is no longer any doubt that climate change caused by increases in greenhouse gases is influencing seasonal shifts in rainfall patterns,” he said…………..
Dr Cai said that three major phenomena, which he likened to a “three-headed dog”, influenced Australia’s rainfall: El Nino events, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Southern Annular Mode, a weather pattern in the Southern Ocean that promotes airflow towards south east Australia.
The good news was that the dog had “a tail”, which may be able to partially offset some drying. This was rapidly heating waters in the Tasman Sea, which research suggested could lead to an increase in rainfall in the south-east during summers.
Dr Cai said that greenhouse gas emissions accounted for about half the rainfall reduction in the south west of the country, where there has been a 10 per cent decline since the early 1970s.
Separate research on an Antarctic ice core suggests this drying may represent a very unusual event.
Tas van Ommen, of the Australian Antarctic Division, told the conference his team had identified a link between rainfall in the south-west and snowfall at a site called Law Dome in East Antarctica.
Their study of an ice core from Law Dome that covers the past 750 years suggests that the last 30 years in south-west Australia has been the driest period, and longest period of reduced rainfall, since the year 1250.
“So media suggestions that the drought in Australia is a 1-in-1000-year event is not unreasonable, at least for the south-west,” Dr van Ommen said.
El Niño returns: Southern Africa droughts in 2007
afrol News 6 October – Satellite photos of the Pacific reveal the return of a world-wide weather phenomenon, the so-called “El Niño”. For Southern Africa, the phenomenon always has spelled severe drought and famine. Scientists expect the Niño to strike already in 2007. The 1991-92 El Niño brought the worst drought in southern Africa during the 20th century.
The US space agency NASA today reported that it has detected a “weak El Niño” returning to the Pacific Ocean, the first since the dramatic climatic season of 1997-98. NASA’s Aqua and Jason satellites have measured increasing ocean surface temperatures in belts across the middle and eastern Pacific, which are signs of a major transformation of global weather systems.
Every few years, such unusually warm currents flow off the western coast of South America. Its appearance after Christmas lead sailors in Peru to christen it El Niño, the Christ-child in Spanish. Like a child, it is sometimes unpredictable, and sometimes creates havoc. In El Niño’s case, it brings natural disasters such as storms, floods and droughts and famine in far-flung parts of the world.
El Niño events occur irregularly, about every 2-7 years and they last from 12 to 18 months, according to the World Health Organisations (WHO), which is very conscious about its many health risks around the world.
Southern Africa is known to be one of the regions world-wide to be most strongly impacted by an El Niño period, together with parts of South America and South-East Asia. In Southern Africa, it is followed by severe droughts almost every time it occurs. “The 1991-92 El Niño brought the worst drought in southern Africa [the 20th] century, which affected nearly 100 million people,” according to WHO.
The 1997-8 El Niño – the last until now – also caused drought in Southern Africa. Its effects were however strongest in Australia – which experienced its worst drought in decades – and in South-East Asia. Throughout the Americas, devastating floods caused great material damage……..
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Checked 1967’s rainfall for this area Luke. Drought, but completely different rain pattern.
1967 had such a poor opening to the season that there was not enough soil moisture to sow crops. Then some modest July-August rains at least provide some feed. The spring months had very little rain.
This current year had a copy-book break to the season, with excellent opening rains March-April-May in this area, though other areas nearby missed out, especially on the earlier rains. Then it has been just about absolutely dry since. Any crops we reap, and we will reap some, are existing on the Autumn rains, with very little since. It remains to see what happens with the spring rains, but I am tipping that we will get enough to be a nuisance for harvest. Hanarahan has a good following here Luke. (For non-Australian readers, check the Australian poet John O’Brien “Said Hanrahan”.)
At this stage Luke, all I can say is that every drought is different. Though efforts to chart patterns will eventually be beneficial for forecasting, a lot more years of data are needed before patterns can be verified. Until then, it is just guesswork.
“http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/natrain13.php”.
“Dr Cai said that, overall, the projection in coming decades was for reduced rainfall in winter and spring in southern Australia, with a decline of up to 15 per cent by 2070.”
Pity that their own data doesnt support their media pronouncements.
You would think with all the money they get and all the hoo hah involved, they would least synchronise their stories, or at least get their media manipulaters to do so.
From what I can see from their own web site even the Simpson Desert will be in flood by 2070.
And these clowns want everyone to believe they can tell with a respectable level of certainty what the average global temperature will be in 70 years based upon these computer models, but they can’t interpret them with any level of internal consistency themselves.
What a circus.
Helen – yes indeed all droughts have their own individual signature. Your place and your mileage may vary etc. 1967 being interesting though as a La Nina that generally didn’t fire. So it’s a born loser year type for SOI/El Nino forecasters.
If you compare the analogues for the last 12 months with 1967 it ain’t too bad as a match.
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/RainfallAndPastureGrowth/Aus/2000s/2007/Sep/Rainfall_Relative12mth.gif
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/RainfallAndPastureGrowth/Aus/1960s/1967/Dec/Rainfall_Relative12mth.gif
from map series found here http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/RainfallAndPastureGrowth/
Hill you have completely misrepresented and misunderstood what has been presented in your usual stupid diatribe.
Walker,
No I didnt I went by what he and others, actually said, and in your usual propensity for not reading your own material went off half cocked— yet again.
As for diatribes I am way behind you for sheer volume of bloggerholic spin and twaddle.
Well your 2070 flood in the Simpson desert beggars belief. Secondly, you have have confused Cai’s material with what you’ve quoted. And you have not understood in the slighest what you’ve quoted. You’re an imbecile. All you’re good for is putting the boot in.
Walker
Cai said what he said as I quoted above
I then looked at his employers own web site and found that he should have been more explicit, as to what were the conditions attaching to his 15%claim.
The Simpson desert being in flood is one of the range of outcomes graphically portrayed by them,in their web site, not me.
As I said before according to their own data some AGW made result in drought, but a lot will cause a widespread increase in rain fall.
You are an obsessive moron Walker, crawl back under that rock.
Is that right. What interpretation skill. Too much fiene wiene from snobland.
It remains to be seen as to whether the BoM doom and gloom prediction eventuates.
Even though the 1967 La Niña was a bit of a non-event rainfall wise as it developed, there was well above average rainfall and as well as significant flooding all over Qld and in Northern NSW in early to mid the following year.
For example see 1968 here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/fld_history/floodsum_1960.shtml
The other point that needs to be mentioned, is that this (not yet officially developed?) La Niña has got VERY much stronger in the last month.
By the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), this is now the 10th strongest La Niña (since 1950) with the lowest August-September MEI value since 1988 (and lower than the 1967 event). Klaus Wolter suggests that despite the late onset, La Niña conditions are expected to continue into the northern hemispheric winter season.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
Further, the positive IOD seems to be breaking down very quickly at the moment. The North and North West tropical sea surface temperatures are now at or above average, and the Western Indian Ocean temperatures are below:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_SE_ophi0.png
This is a big turnaround from only a couple of weeks ago.
A bit on the IOD for those interested.
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/
If the turnaround continues, there may still be some hope for late Spring.
cheers
Arnost
Luke, so far the rainfall pattern for this year has been the mirror opposite to that of 1967, and there is a good chance this will continue. In 1967 there was almost zero spring rain. I think this year will see spring rain. Hopefully not enough to spoil the thin crops we still have.
There is some observation in this. I have noticed before that for the western system rains to fall across inland southern Australia, cloud streaming in from North West WA makes a difference. In other words, moisture from the North Indian Ocean. This cloud pattern has been largely absent this season, but it is beginning to reappear.
While correlation is not causation, it will be interesting to see if the northern cloud patterns continue, and we get spring rains this year.
By the way, 1967 was followed by two cracker years. Lake Eyre filled up.
At the risk of exposing myself to a torrent of patronizing abuse, I (as a layman) see nothing unprecedented or alarming in the 100 year rainfall history of N.S.W. (or the other states for that matter).
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/timeseries.cgi
chris,
that’s the average for Australia. The NW is seeing abnormally high rainfall, hiding the drop in rainfall for the rest of the country. Research has indicited the NW rainfall is due to partcile pollution from Asia.
I realize it’s the all Australian record but it provides a gateway to the separate regions and I stand by previous comment.
Chrisgo – would I be abusive ?
I think you will find the multi-year rainfall sequence in the Murray headwaters and SE Qld dam catchments is more than worst on record – simulated flows are off the bottom end of the scale (dams not being there in 1902). BoM can supply those analyses. So any individual year may not be that extraordinary but the cumulative sequence sure is. SW WA rainfall is in steady decline.
Helen I defer to your local expert knowledge. I agree with your analysis of the importance of NW cloud bands.
Wenju Cai’s comments are above the IPCC analyses listed in CSIRO’s report. My umbrage with Malolm is that Wenju is a great bloke and very hard working. Indeed I reckon he’s on the money looking at influence of things like IOD and SAM as well as ye olde El Nino/La Nina. As well as drying trends in SW WA – complex multi-factor stuff. Some AGW but not all. And a warming Tasman Sea. I don’t know who else is bringing us this level of innovation in the science locally, so it really bothers me to see someone dump shit on him without even a fair consideration of what he’s saying.
Anyway hope all get some rain and Malcolm and I improve our “relationship”.
Incidentally I suspect Paul’s addition of the Afrol news clip on El Nino was issued in October 2006 not 2007 and is out of date.
http://web.archive.org/web/20070121003119/http://www.afrol.com/articles/21803
Link above shows http://www.archive.org has catalogued the Afrol news page before.
First entry in the Wayback Machine above is for 21 Jan 2007 – earlier this year.
Also there have been El Nino events since 1997/98 contrary to what the article says.
I have no doubt that Dr. Cai is a fine fellow and his rainfall projections should be seriously considered by farmers and responsible authorities in planning for the future (after all it’s sensible to assume the worst and hope for better), but isn’t his statement “there is no longer any doubt that climate change caused by increases in greenhouse gases is influencing seasonal shifts in rainfall patterns” a bit beyond his brief?
I have an uneasy feeling that the public are being presented with a circular argument.
Well there ya go, the AFROL (who?) link said el nino tomorrow. But tommorrow was yesterday.
Luke says that this Wenju Cai guy is a “great bloke”, nepotism rules yeah – is that one tali wagging two mutts?
Chris
If me head is in the oven, and my feet are in the freezer, then on average I’m feeling quite comfortable.
Well we know Rog wouldn’t vouch for any of his mates as like him they’re all dodgy. Fair enuff.
As for nepotism – well I don’t influence his research agenda or funding so you’re a rank little idiot.
And yep forecasts (by who?) can be wrong and will be wrong x percent of the time – anyone who says they know 100% is having you on.
He’s not making a rainfall projection for the immediate future with the 1967 bit, it’s an “observation”, but he is very into the details of climate behaviour and climate modelling and his studies are showing lots of changed behaviour in the Australian region which in his opinion and backed up by the modelling have an AGW and a natural component.
e.g. (and my take)
changes in ocean temperatures – warming Tasman and Indian Ocean
changes in SAM
changes in El Nino behaviour
growing understanding of decadal variability
abvility to combine and explore such features in a modelling environment
I went back to Afrol for a better look – the article is indeed 6/10/2006.
A Multivariate ENSO Index is here:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/enso.mei_index.html
“forecasts (by who?) can be wrong”
Really? you dont say..
The (by who) = the National Climate Centre, or the BOM. Their latest interpretation of events includes;
“Australia’s climate may continue, at least in the short term, to be influenced by the unusual state of the oceans to the north, and particularly northwest, of the continent”
Luke: I don’t know where these people are coming from. Somebody most likely at school taught me to read the daily weather maps late 40’s or early 50’s and I think we see a major change across those areas that are the tips like S.E.Aus.
My interest was always Bass Strait and that bit between Cape Grim to Strahan also the uniformity of highs and lows at latitude 40’s. Note; the tip of WA cops similar sort of weather but in a few days advance of Tasmania and Vic.
Of particular interest was a phenomena called the “equinox gales”, winds that blew the thorns off our roses every year. Mum and most of my aunties were gardeners. Oddly enough I never worked out their patterns, neither has Wiki or BoM however there is enough info now to see trends.
Trends, not averages best explain the impact of climate change I feel we need to consider most. Trends are the reason the Murray Darling Basin is so dry. It’s a huge area that won’t support our agriculture as it was. It won’t support the timber industry either. Gunns should shift their pulp mill to Derby.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi?variable=rain®ion=aus&season=0112&period=1950
rog can’t sleep on it hey
Gavin, that is the 50 year trend.
The 100 year trend shows little variation over the whole continent.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/More_on_The_Great_Pacific_Climate_Shift_and_the_Relationship_of_Oceans_on_Global_Temperatures.pdf
Hey Walker
Perhaps you and your mate Dr Cai can give us the benefit of your collective wisdom on the above.
When you have done that, try and work out whats wrong with the Jules Kalbfeld document in the same Icecap blog –if anything.
In my area of the NSW central tablelands, August to October last year was the driest in 108 years of record, reflecting the dearth of SW cold fronts. This year is shaping up to be worse. Annual rain here has been declining steadily since 1950, but then it was extraordinarily wet from 1950 to 1970. In fact, looking at a 7 year rolling average since 1900, which you really have in NSW because rainfall is so variable compared to SW WA, rainfall has declined to the “dry” of 1900-1949. This doesn’t bode well for a hungry and thirsty population that keeps growing, thanks to a criminally negligent immigration policy perpetuated by both major political parties. One upon a time “populate or perish” might have been true, now it looks like “depopulate or perish”.
In the late 80’s it rained so much they thought that Warragamba might top and then break apart – they then added a bit extra to secure the Hawkesbury basin from flood.
Well Mally poos – CSIRO know about the PDO and it doesn’t explain all the changes we’re seeing. You may find Ian Smith also knows the odd thing about modelling. ROTFL. (He’s also got the two organisations wrong way around – “respectively”).
As for your Great Pacific wank article, the author might want to know that Power is one of the original researchers looking at Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation phenomena. A rambling essay on correlations by D’Aleo isn’t science. D’Aleo needs to get published. It won’t be – oh except for E&E perhaps.
“A rambling essay on correlations by D’Aleo isn’t science”- and neither is Cai’s document to last weeks so called Conference, and sundry Press Releases.
As a matter of interest just how many papers have you had published about anything in your miserable life of being a perpetual bloggerer and all round peanut.
Malcolm.
It wasn’t even a conference? What exactly happened that meant it wasn’t a conference? Do you know something I don’t?
SJT,
I assume it was a Conference. My point was that Walker was demeaning the D’Aleo paper because it wasnt peer reviewed ie “he needs to get it published”, but otherwise it was variously a:
..”Great Pacific wank article”..and
“rambling essay on correlations”
Well in terms Walkers criteria of peer reviewed science,as being the ONLY measure of whether anything has any intellectual merit, then neither was Cai’s paper,nor most others, peer reviewed.
Ipso facto, more Walker Wankery.
Mally poos – one of the benefits of a good education is the ability to see bilge at 100 yards. I can’t help it if your anger levels prevent you from understanding.
I am not angry at all, I just enjoy exposing you for what you are.
uh huh.
“one of the benefits of a good education –“. Luke.
Once back in BC the reply was:-
“Ian Beale – English class is next – wait your turn.”
Added English classes yet Luke?
They might help with pseudonyms – the spoonerism of Phil Done is Dil Phone, Luke.
Read Kiplings “Tomlinson” yet Luke?
After some 40 thousand years, is the primary test of our individual ability in survival-
1)the keenness of vision to spot a long lost stone age tool while taking a stroll,
or
2)The shrewdness to stoop down in a market crowd and gather a small coin from the dust.?
Modern society gets carried away with this intellectual B/S. IMO the three headed dog wins.
I say chaps,
I don’t know what is happening to the Indian Ocean Dipole, but we are actually having a wet spring in the south-west. Must be that last seaquake off Java. My great-grand-father went there in 1860, and he said the weather was funny then. My grand-father went there in 1882, and noticed the smell of sulfur. He thought it was from the ship’s captain eating too much curry. Multi-hypotheses. Watch this space.
Do Davey you really don’t want to discuss any science – just spin a few yarns, rail against the greens, and lament that SOMEONE ought to do something about fire regimes. Stuff a cucumber sanger in it 🙂
True Luke. Science can be boring when cut and pasted by desk bound ideologues. Yarns can be enriching for those who are willing to listen, rather than just talk. Aborigines prefer the story approach, and are, I suspect, usually closer to the ecological truth than many refereed papers by academics.
I can’t remember railing much against the greens. After all, I am one. With regard to fire, I am co-operating with the local firey volunteers to introduce ‘green burning’, which is something like traditional Nyoongar style. It is hard, sweaty, smokey work.
Although I have heard no more (perhaps too controversial?) I was recently invited by a local Greens candidate to present a PowerPoint talk on ‘green burning’ to her members. I am happy to do so, if they want it.
I am also using Soft Systems Methodology (Checkland 2003) to try to resolve a few issues involving people, fire, forests and water. I hope to present this at an international conference in Malaysia in a few months time.
What are you doing about this, and other, major ecological issue? More tea, vicar?
Not CATWOE and that soft systems shite surely. Davey have you sold out. You’re gonna have to match up the back on demos. You need to do an r-squared or log (arithm) something before you turn blue.
Yes, I must admit I find CATWOE a bit dubious. But science needs a soft systems framework, within which ‘hard’ models can be nested. History is a form of soft systems framework. It’s fuzzy, and you can’t quantify it, but it sure is important.
Remember Plato and his shadows on the wall? Or Kant, who thought we are sailing on a sea of phenomena, looking for an isle of noumena? We need to chart the sea of phenomena, before we run onto the rocks. The Soft Systems Method can help.
I seem to remember a Professor Mann who ignored history. No doubt he would class himself as a ‘hard’ scientist. Don’t forget the logical positivists took a hiding in the 1920s and 30s. So did Prof Skinner, with his ‘rats and stats’. Stop being a mere mechanic, Luke. You can do better.
Ah nonsense – it’s either good Fortran or not. None of this soft system crap. Don’t get all poofy now Davey. If you haven’t done a square root today don’t talk to me.
Just kidding Davey.
Luke,
South-western Australia (Nyoongar boodja) has had a cooler than average, wetter spring than usual – well, in the little bit I live in, anyway, according to my garden raingauge, read by a gnome.
Nyoongars say that waving certain pieces of crystal, and saying the right words, can bring rain. I believe them, and scientific tests in universities by teams of people wearing white coats, and speaking Fortran, prove it is so (Flubduddle 2005, Flubduddle and Bugwuddle 2006, Flubduddle et al. 2007).
Dr. Cai’s ‘three headed dog’ is looking like a labradoodle with mange. I advise you to get back to learning about the Central Limit Theorem – there will be a test tomorrow.
P.S. I am going out with others tomorrow to inject jarrah trees against Phytophthora cinnamomi. What exactly have you recently done to save the planet?
Remembering the Chinese way with names, should it not be Dr Wenju, not Dr Cai? Did the journalist get it wrong? Surely not … by the way, my nephew speaks fluent Mandarin.