Dear Jennifer,
You might be interested in my recent Blog entry ‘Long term reduction in Australian deaths from, bushfires, cyclones and heatwaves’.
The next entry down ‘Is massive UHI warming in China distorting Jones et al gridded T data ?’ is reporting stunning differences between Jones and satellite gridded data. I thought the warmers were muttering some mantra that there is little difference between the datsets now.
I am hoping to be a bit more active on the Blog.
The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition (NZCSC) had a good week with media comment on their open letter to MP’s calling for a Royal Commission into IPCC science and how it is affecting NZ economy.
I have just added a general entry re the NZCSC open letter last week at the blog. Also one highlighting a simplistic and unworthy statement from NIWA in a May media release commenting on NZCSC. For me, a welter of activity and there is much much more in the pipeline.
Have a great weekend.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Hi Jennifer,
Interesting site.
There could be several factors keeping heat wave deaths lower despite
our
greatly increased population. Some lung diseases have been all but
eradicated.
Our life expectancy is greater so presumably we are fitter to cope with
the
stress. On the other hand we are informed that air pollution is worse
for those
millions of us in cities. So I see factors pulling this way and that.
It might take some medical historian to unravel the reasons why deaths
are lower
now. I am surprised the EMA information has not made news before this.
Given Warwick’s erudite analysis of disasters he might like to inform Queenslanders where all the coast crossing cyclones that fill dams have gone and why we have had more El Ninos since 1976. Mortalities from meteorological disasters are one thing but it might fun to add up state and Federal drought aid over time.
And despite all these heat islands in China I note the Chinese are engineering for warming railway tracks in their new Tibetan high plateau railway. Maybe they just like engineering.
Me erudite, good sense of humour Luke.
Did you see the news.com.au item by Dr Chris Landsea a US hurricane specialist. He says hurricanes from earlier times were under-reported. I have the item posted. Recall he left some position with the IPCC because they ignored his advice.
Warwick – well Chris Landsea will have to keep his mind well open as he claims in your post. This is the latest research.
Global Warming Topped Natural Cycles in Fueling 2005 Hurricanes Research supports idea that rising global temperatures produce more hurricanes
Washington — Global warming accounted for about half of the extra hurricane-fueling warmth in the waters of the tropical North Atlantic in 2005, and natural cycles were a minor factor, according to a new analysis by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
The research was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR’s primary sponsor, according to a joint June 22 press release by NCAR, NSF and the American Geophysical Union.
“The global warming influence provides a new background level that increases the risk of future enhancements in hurricane activity,” said NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth.
The study runs counter to recent claims that natural cycles are responsible for the upturn in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995. It also supports the premise that hurricane seasons will become even more active as global temperatures rise.
In 2005, there were a record number of 28 tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma all reached Category 5 strength. (See related article http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2005&m=November&x=20051129171825cmretrop0.8336756&t=xarchives/xarchitem.html)
The research by Trenberth and Dennis Shea, also from NCAR, focuses on an increase in ocean temperatures.
During much of the 2005 hurricane season, sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic between 10 degrees and 20 degrees north, where many Atlantic hurricanes originate, were a record 0.94 degrees Celsius above the 1901-1970 average.
Researchers agree that the warming waters fueled hurricane intensity, but they have been uncertain about whether Atlantic waters have heated up because of a natural decades long cycle or because of global warming.
Analyzing worldwide data on sea-surface temperatures since the early 20th century, Trenberth and Shea calculated that global warming accounted for about 0.4 degrees Celsius of this rise.
After effects from the 2004-2005 El Nino — a warming of the ocean surface off the western coast of South America that occurs every 4-12 years — accounted for about 0.2 degrees Celsius increase.
The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, a 60- to 80-year natural cycle in sea-surface temperatures, explained less than 0.1 degrees Celsius of the rise, Trenberth said. The rest is due to yearly temperature variation.
Previous studies have attributed the warming and cooling patterns in the North Atlantic in the 20th century — and associated hurricane activity — to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.
Trenberth, suspecting that global warming also played a role, looked beyond the Atlantic to temperature patterns throughout Earth’s tropical and midlatitude waters.
He subtracted the global trend from the irregular Atlantic temperatures — in effect, separating global warming from the Atlantic natural cycle.
The results show that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is actually much weaker now than it was in the 1950s, when Atlantic hurricanes also were quite active. But it did contribute to the lull in hurricane activity from about 1970 to 1990 in the Atlantic.
But global warming does not guarantee that each year will set records for hurricanes, Trenberth said. The 2005 activity was related to very favorable upper-level winds, he added, and extremely warm sea-surface temperatures.
Each year will bring ups and downs in tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures due to natural variations, such as the presence or absence of El Nino, he said. But the long-term ocean warming should raise the baseline of hurricane activity.
Text of the press release http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/hurricanes.shtml is available at the NCAR web site.
(Distributed by the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
Landsea needs to keep his open mind with this breaking news research.
Global Warming Topped Natural Cycles in Fueling 2005 Hurricanes Research supports idea that rising global temperatures produce more hurricanes
Washington — Global warming accounted for about half of the extra hurricane-fueling warmth in the waters of the tropical North Atlantic in 2005, and natural cycles were a minor factor, according to a new analysis by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
The research was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR’s primary sponsor, according to a joint June 22 press release by NCAR, NSF and the American Geophysical Union.
“The global warming influence provides a new background level that increases the risk of future enhancements in hurricane activity,” said NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth.
The study runs counter to recent claims that natural cycles are responsible for the upturn in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995. It also supports the premise that hurricane seasons will become even more active as global temperatures rise.
In 2005, there were a record number of 28 tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma all reached Category 5 strength. (See related article http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2005&m=November&x=20051129171825cmretrop0.8336756&t=xarchives/xarchitem.html)
Oh and the paper
“Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005” is published in Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, doi:10.1029/2006GL026894
June 27, 2006
Trenberth and Shea’s research focuses on an increase in ocean temperatures. During much of last year’s hurricane season, sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic between 10 and 20 degrees north, which is where many Atlantic hurricanes originate, were a record 1.7 degrees F above the 1901-1970 average. While researchers agree that the warming waters fueled hurricane intensity, they have been uncertain whether Atlantic waters have heated up because of a natural, decades-long cycle, or because of global warming.
By analyzing worldwide data on sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) since the early 20th century, Trenberth and Shea were able to calculate the causes of the increased temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their calculations show that global warming explained about 0.8 degrees F of this rise. Aftereffects from the 2004-05 El Nino accounted for about 0.4 degrees F. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), a 60-to-80-year natural cycle in SSTs, explained less than 0.2 degrees F of the rise, according to Trenberth. The remainder is due to year-to-year variability in temperatures.
Previous studies have attributed the warming and cooling patterns of North Atlantic ocean temperatures in the 20th century–and associated hurricane activity–to the AMO. But Trenberth, suspecting that global warming was also playing a role, looked beyond the Atlantic to temperature patterns throughout Earth’s tropical and midlatitude waters. He subtracted the global trend from the irregular Atlantic temperatures–in effect, separating global warming from the Atlantic natural cycle. The results show that the AMO is actually much weaker now than it was in the 1950s, when Atlantic hurricanes were also quite active. However, the AMO did contribute to the lull in hurricane activity from about 1970 to 1990 in the Atlantic.
Global warming does not guarantee that each year will set records for hurricanes, according to Trenberth. He notes that last year’s activity was related to very favorable upper-level winds as well as the extremely warm SSTs. Each year will bring ups and downs in tropical Atlantic SSTs due to natural variations, such as the presence or absence of El Nino, says Trenberth. However, he adds, the long-term ocean warming should raise the baseline of hurricane
Jennifer,
Our Bureau of Meterology has looked at this carefully and states quite clearly that there is no evidence of increased frequency of hurricanes/cyclones throughout the world, and no scientific agreement whether there is any change in intensity. It would seem that dogmatic statments saying otherwise,and alarmist news stories have no basis in fact. See http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/ho/20060220.shtml
No Malcolm – you are being selective by omission
(a) the recent conference says the scientific community is divided
Specifically
It also says that while some recent studies have suggested the intensity of tropical cyclones (hurricanes/typhoons) has increased substantially over the past 50 years due to climate change, the scientific community is “deeply divided”. Some researchers believe the climate record is too inconsistent to draw such a conclusion due to changes in observations equipment and methods over time. The panel says it cannot come to a definitive conclusion in this “hotly debated area”.
(b) the work I have quoted is more recent – it is scientific research not an alarmist “news story”
(c) I am asserting we are in a period of blurring where a true signal will eventually emerge – what would you expect to see if it was really happening ??
(d) to be “totally unconcerned” is ignoring a good body of emerging work which may or may not play out.
(e) interesting this is the same Bureau lambasted in other posts for a variety of “scientific complaints”
When scientists are divided, that means they have no clue what the problem is.
Or we’re witnessing the change that happens with all paradigm busts.
Luke,
Note the changes when it happens.
And then learn.
Ender, like the simpler among us, seems not to be able.
But Louis- it is happening. You see but you do not observe.