Australia experienced severe drought during the 1990s, and for much of that decade Australia’s National Climate Centre was headed by meteorologist Bill Kininmonth. He provided advice to government and also to the IPCC. Bill subsequently published an important book entitled ‘Climate Change: A Natural Hazard’. In it he explains that the model of the climate system represented by the IPCC is inadequate as a foundation for future planning. Of course, we need to have some idea of the likely severity of droughts and floods if we are to adequately plan for them.
Just recently, Bill wrote a short piece (click here) based on his analysis of publicly available temperature data concerning both the tropical oceans and lower atmospheric temperatures as measured by satellites. Based on this evidence, Bill argues:
- Temperatures, and rates of warming globally, are regulated by the tropical ocean,
- The pattern of warming both at altitude and across latitudes is not consistent with the theory of human-caused global warming.
This is important information, if we are to understand how the Earth might heat up and how it might cool down. Some of us like reworking this puzzle, as we develop a new and more robust theory of climate complete with accurate new equations to describe global energetic constraints as they apply to the atmosphere.
If you would like to listen to my very first zoom interview, it will be next Thursday, with Bill.
You are invited to listen live.
When: Dec 5, 2024 07:00 PM Brisbane
Register in advance for this meeting:
https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZItdeCuqjwoE90uponYR8ANj-jtzXpQo7bc
After registering, you will hopefully receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the zoom.
Postscript
Very often, I’m told that it would be more useful if I simplified my message, as though the world needs another slogan. Of course, those who subscribe to the theory of human-caused global warming have many successful slogans and symbols, it is just a pity that their theory has no predictive value because it is not really a scientific theory at all. It persists because of its political utility.
The history of science shows that paradigms, even when they turn out to be nonsense, are never disproven. They are only ever replaced.
So, for sure we need a new theory of climate change, one based on realistic historical temperature reconstructions and consistent with the laws of physics.
One of the best tests of any scientific theory is its predictive value, its capacity to generate forecast and predictions with some degree of skill.
These are summaries of some of my historical temperature reconstructions for parts of mainland Australia, when I concerned myself with understanding the accuracy of the measurements and sorting and extracting the best data for my work forecasting monthly rainfall using artificial neural networks that are a form of AI.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
A great chart !!! A treasure !!!
My mother was born in 1913 with sand between her toes, and her father, my grandfather, was driven off the land in 1914 by a terrible drought. This chart shows me a temperature peak for that time. I didn’t till now have a safe record of the time.
This is additional to the discussion group that I have started with just a few of us, as per my thunderstorm post, https://jennifermarohasy.com/2024/11/tropical-thunderstorms/
If you would like to be part of a small group regularly discussing a new theory of climate, leave a comment in this thread, and include an interesting link or thought as it concerns science and philosophy, and I will be in touch.
‘Temperatures and rates of warming Globally, are regulated by the Tropical Oceans’
Bill is still locked into the ENSO mantra.
The amount of Solar Energy reaching the Earth’s surface, is what regulates temperatures and rates of warming. The Drivers, include the Solar-induced Dry Cycle Hierarchies, that reduce precipitation (by destroying water vapour Albedo in the upper atmosphere.) The West to East and towards the Poles travel of weather patterns,(due to the Axial Spin of the Earth ) – and the East to West travel of the Terrestrial Footprint of the Orbiting Dry Cycles. The moon does have some bearing on the amount of expelled Solar Particles reaching the Earth – and of course effects the movement of the Oceans (tides.)
Africa and Europe are currently experiencing one of these Dry Cycles, that started circa August 1, 2024 from 50 degrees E (Madagascar) is moving East to West – and will end circa August 1, 2026, at the same longitude.
Moving at a rate of 15 degrees longitude per 30 Day/Night Interval Month, this Cycle will affect Australia from January 2026, to mid-May, 2026.
The Dry Cycles travel from East to West around the Planet.
Prevailing weather travels from West to East, due to Axial Spin.
The predictive value of these Dry Cycles is proven by observation to be correct.
The ‘predictive value’ of ENSO, is (and always has been) non-existent.
You wrote: Temperatures, and rates of warming globally, are regulated by the tropical ocean
That is an important factor, other related factors must also be considered, sea level, ice in polar regions, albedo, cooling by ice thawing, are all important factors that are working with the energy in the tropical oceans.
Ice ages are caused by ice on land, it takes energy to change water in the oceans to be ice on land, that energy comes from the sun, stored in tropical oceans, transported to polar regions, powering the polar ice machines, ice on land in cold places can only increase when the polar oceans are warm enough to promote evaporation and snowfall.
Ice on land in cold places must deplete when oceans are cold and covered with sea ice, when evaporation and snowfall is not possible. These factors promote natural, self-correcting, natural alternating warmer and colder climate cycles.
Over fifty million years, the warming of tropical oceans worked the same way, over fifty million years, the transport of warm water into polar regions increased and the volume and area of ice increased, sea level dropped as climate cooled. These factors that changed must be considered, studied, understood and explained.
You wrote: So, for sure we need a new theory of climate change, one based on realistic historical temperature reconstructions and consistent with the laws of physics.
Also: For sure we need a new theory of climate change, one based on and consistent with common sense.
I wrote that you wrote, I read again and it should be Bill wrote. I look forward to hearing and watching Bill with you on Zoom.
The wintertime maximum of polar warming is expected because during the months of polar darkness the temperature is sustained by transport of heat from the tropics, The warming tropical oceans has increased the flow of latent heat (through increased evaporation) to the tropical atmosphere. During the winter months of maximum heat transport by the atmosphere the additional heat is available to warm the polar air
These natural alternating warm and cold polar ice cycles are not properly studied and understood. Land ice flowing into the warm tropical salt water ocean currents chill the water to the state that sea ice forms and stops evaporation and snowfall and increased ice sequestering. When ice on land is depleted the ice flow does not chill the tropical currents enough to form sea ice, the evaporation and snowfall replenishes the land ice until it gets colder again.
Your summaries of historical temperature reconstructions for parts of mainland Australia are cherry-picked.
“William Kininmonth, a long-time sceptic of human caused climate change, was described in the WSJ editorial as the “former head of climate research at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology”.
Now that sounds pretty impressive and lends Mr Kininmonth an air of credibility.
Mr Kininmonth is also an adviser to the Science and Public Policy Institute, whose chief adviser is Lord Christopher Monckton. Mr Kininmonth also sits on the science advisory board of the International Climate Science Coalition. Both organisations have consistently promoted climate science denial and both note Mr Kininmonth’s former position at the bureau.
He is also an advisor to Australia’s Galileo Movement, whose patron, popular radio shock-jock Alan Jones, says global warming is a hoax.”
https://www.desmog.com/2012/02/02/australian-meteorology-bureau-corrects-record-former-research-head-william-kininmonth-s-actual-climate-change-experience/
‘Australia experienced severe drought in the 1990’s’ –TRUE ;
A Two Year ‘Regional’ Dry Cycle started at the beginning of November 1990, from 160 degrees West Longitude,(East of New Zealand.) It affected Australia from early February 1991, to April 1992.
There were then two One year ‘Minor’ Dry Cycles starting from 80 degrees East, (Sri Lanka) in early February 1993, then from 50 degrees East,(Madagascar) starting in early May, 1995. Neither of these One Year Minor Cycles reached Australia, due to their Start Longitudes to the West of Australia.
The next Two Year ‘Regional’ Dry Cycle started at the beginning of August, 1997 – from 170 degrees East Longitude,(New Zealand.) It affected Australia from early September 1997, to mid-December 1998.
Then followed another ‘Minor’ Dry Cycle starting from 20 degrees East Longitude,(Greece) in early November 1999, which also did not reach Australia due to its Start Longitude – and its travel from East to West around the planet.
I refer those interested to the chronology starting from page 148 in the following work;
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TFFDXyhe5b0ZfLCiFt23W4PbubQaQfQo/view?usp=sharing
KK above acuses Jennifer of cherry-picking temperatures.
Well, climate alarmists know all about cherry-picking don’t they half ;
They have been cherry-picking and exaggerating natural events of fire and flooding for decades now in order to support vexatious claims of climate apocalypse and extinction of the human species. Shame on them for frightening ordinary people . .
KK must have forgotten that scepticism is the cornerstone of scientific enquiry. Theories that go unchallenged are to be treated with contempt.
Thanks for sharing.
Karen Klemp asserts that man made climate change is a FACT. A political fact to be sure but the signature of man on climate is disputable if not erroneous. No Karen, I’m not in thrall to big Oil or tobacco and no financial gain is made.
Willis Eschenbach has written about this extensively!
See here for one of many:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/03/03/a-curious-essay/