The Bureau has called the low-pressure system off the northeast of Australia as a category two cyclone. Local weather reports are warning:
“Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, swimming and surfing.
With fair-sized waves rolling in from the north facing points, the local surfers were out early this morning, so the carpark at the main entrance to Noosa National Park was a traffic jam. I was keen to see my cliff face* (below Boiling Pot Lookout) on the high tide with the big swells, but alas the traffic prevented it. I should have walked!
This low-pressure system has intensified on a New Moon (1st January) at Perigee (2nd January). These are conditions often associated with cyclones.
This cyclone, named Seth, is tracking south, as I would expect given the Moon will be heading south until midnight on Sunday, when it will reach maximum declination just to the north of Noosa and then turn. I watch, and download data, on the Moon’s changing orbit from the NASA Jet Propulsion Lab.
According to the latest report from the Bureau, Seth was producing wind gusts of up to 110 kilometres per hour and was not expected to cross the coast.
We are so overdue for cyclones crossing the coast. Last summer, the 2020–21 Australian region cyclone season was another ‘below average’ season, producing a total of just 8 tropical cyclones with just 3 of these categorised as severe. So, since official records began in 1970 it is a case of less cyclones and less severe cyclones.
Of course, all of this contradicts the official ‘climate action now’ narrative that falsely claims an increase in the incidence of cyclones in accordance with the illusionary climate change catastrophe reported nightly on the news by all the ‘useful idiot’ journalists. (Don’t be one of the useful idiots, join the resistance by subscribing to my regular e-newsletter.)
I’m going to be out tomorrow morning (Sunday morning) to try and record the second highest tide at the cliff face, and, also on Monday morning for the highest tide. I’m hoping to put up my drone, but if it’s too gusty Skido will refuse to take-off. It would be so good to have a professional with a long lens across the other side of Tea Tree Bay looking back to the cliff face, to catch the highest tide with the big swell. You don’t have to get on the platform, there will be lots of opportunities looking back from the main track.
**** More information on how to get to my cliff face is at my sea level change page, click here.
The image below was taken on the highest tide two years ago looking back to the rock platform below Boiling Pot Lookout in Noosa National Park. Can you see me within the red circle to the bottom left? There was a low pressure system off shore that year. It will be more intense this year so the tide should be even higher, but will it reach the bottom of the cliff face? Will I be washed away?
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Great post for the start of the New Year 2022
Thank you Jennifer
You take care around that water now. LOL Looks like we’re going to get some of the moisture off Seth by week’s end.
I saw an excerpt from Prince Charles’ speech to the COP thing and it was scary and nothing to do with the weather, I think.
With all that’s being tried on right now, he seemed very sure of the future. Like he was telling our fortune.
Stick with it Jennifer, coal face facts. Thanks for your work
Good luck getting media coverage. Have you had responses from any popular publishers or broadcasters?
The photo clearly shows that the wave-cut platform developed when sea-level was 1.5- 2m higher 6-8000 yrs ago and the slope on the platform indicates the high-stand was only short-lived. This higher sea-level is evidenced by similar elevated wave-cut platforms around the world because it is relatively recent.
Thanks Jen for a very appropriate discussion.
Can’t believe the improvement in climate compared with ’50s, 60s and 70s when we had big cyclones and floods in spades. That [less than]1c nat var warming has worked wonders.
Cyclones always seem to arrive during a king tide as this one has and in 1974 the sea surge from the cyclone on the Gold Coast forced the Nerang River to run in reverse and cause flooding close on 2 metres above the king tide level.
By the look of the barometer readings Seth so far is a pussycat.
Hope he stays that way.
Well done Jen a good start to the year. It looks like the Northern Hemisphere winter is going to be a cold one so they will be firing up all the coal fired power stations to try to warm things up a bit. Especially as all the Solar Panels are covered with snow.
I’m going to be there tomorrow morning God willing. Interested to see if a freak cyclone-driven wave will reach the ancient cut out at the peak of the King tide.
I agree with Richard Bennett, I always keep an eye out for the high stand wherever I am.
From my literature searches it all fits with the 6,000 year estimate, plus or minus a fair bit, it’s a bit rubbery.
So somewhere around 4,000BC or 6,000BP.
Quite a big king tide Jen, but when corrected for BP [minus ~10 cm] and sea surge from large ocean swells [say, minus a similar amount but could be a lot more] it is pretty much normal height or lower.
As usual, nothing observable happening with sea level rise in my lifetime.
Jennifer, you are a beacon of shining, truthful light, in this current period of “doom and gloom”, being bandied around by the current crop of, so called, Climate Scientists. Happy New Year to you. Keep up the good work. 👍😁😁.
It would seem Willie Soon’s forecast of a cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere is correct.
5 dead, nearly 850K without power as fierce storm lashes South, mid-Atlantic with heavy snow.
I thought CO2 was to cause Global Warming..Not Cooling.
A bit off subject but interesting none the less.