Open Thread

Some things worth remembering …
We are persuaded not by truth, but by fidelity to evidence and context.
It is important to understand the difference between propaganda and information.
Objectivity is a research method, not a philosophy.

Photograph by Lyndon Mechielson

Photograph by Lyndon Mechielson

95 Responses to Open Thread

  1. Debbie September 6, 2014 at 8:35 am #

    Great article in the Land Jen.
    Combined with your work with Graham Lloyd & your interview on 2GB. . .People are starting to ask some good questions.
    Re the Jones interview. . .I do wish he had just let you say what needed to be said rather than interjecting with exaggeration.
    I realise that’s his style. . .but in this instance there really is no need to exaggerate.
    BoM has applied that program to the data and it has changed the ‘trend’.
    BoM can’t explain WHY it was necessary to apply the program or what public BENEFIT has been achieved by applying that program to Australian data.
    So far, amongst a lot of talk about ‘peer review’, all BoM has said is that they applied it because everybody else did.
    That reminds me of those well known sayings about ostriches and lemmings 🙂
    We do expect better from our public institutions.

  2. Neville September 6, 2014 at 9:05 am #

    Anthony Watts asks a very serious question, ” is John Kerry mentally ill”.

    Just read some of the quotes from this buffoon and you can only draw one conclusion. Yes.

  3. Peter C September 6, 2014 at 9:29 am #


    Do you have the photo of the record temperature in Bourke 1906?

  4. Jennifer Marohay September 6, 2014 at 10:23 am #

    Hey Peter C

    I have a photograph of the record as written into the ledger on the 3rd January 1909 and also the audit of this done at the end of that month, January 1909. I will publish this at this blog, or in a manuscript, in due course.

  5. Neville September 6, 2014 at 10:42 am #

    Bob Tisdale looks at the increase in climate porn from the delusional eco-loons. You couldn’t be more maths challenged than these fools if you tried.
    Also their level of simple comprehension hasn’t even reached the level of a five year old.

    The graph from the BP stats review of world energy tells the full story about co2 emissions since 1975. The developed world has increased co2 emissions by 251 million tonnes a decade while the developing world ( China, India etc) has increased emissions by 4,084 M Ts per decade , or about 16.3 times as much. over that 39 year period. Unbelievable.

  6. egg September 6, 2014 at 10:46 am #

    The online India Today here reports that India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Friday:

    “Climate has not changed. We have changed. Our habits have changed. Our habits have got spoiled. Due to that, we have destroyed our entire environment,” he said while addressing students and replying to their questions through video conferencing in the first-ever initiative.”

    – See more at:

  7. RealOz September 6, 2014 at 10:47 am #

    A bit OT I guess – but that is on helluva photo.
    Wish I could take shots like that!

  8. Emily Frazer September 6, 2014 at 10:51 am #

    AH. Click on the photograph and it enlarges, and it is Jen.

  9. Neville September 6, 2014 at 10:55 am #

    Steve McIntyre explains how Mann is still telling porkies. Will this drongo ever wake up?

  10. Neville September 6, 2014 at 11:09 am #

    Jean S continues to smash Mann’s hockey stick. He refers to part of this con as a fairy tale. Jean S was the blogger that wrecked the Karoly and Gergis SH hockey stick. It took him and Steve just one thread to send this very expensive study to the rubbish tip.

  11. egg September 6, 2014 at 1:36 pm #

    ‘The AGW hypothesis is all about small changes having major implications.’

  12. egg September 6, 2014 at 2:36 pm #

    ‘Greenland began heating up around 19,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age, just like the rest of the northern hemisphere, researchers said in a report that resolves a paradox over when that warming happened.

    ‘Previous studies had suggested this warming went back only 12,000 years, according to the study published in the US journal Science.’

  13. Robert September 6, 2014 at 4:39 pm #

    I wonder how Nobbys could have suffered a quarter of a century of clerical error or distorted readings. So many high annual and monthly averages occurring before 1889, after readings only began in 1862. And what was going on 1877-8? That was some serious heat for an ocean site, if accurate.

    I don’t want to jump to conclusions, but when you consider that the very wet 1890 shows as by far the coolest in the 152 year Nobbys record, it’s a fair bet the thermometer wasn’t kept near the beacon or over a spirit cooker. It’s also a fair bet that the people in charge were very conscientious, because mugs didn’t last long in 19th century Australia.

    Very different to the Sydney record, which shows a cluster of hotter years after 2000 and very average temps for the years before 1889. (Sydney Observatory shows a narrow, almost neat, range of average annual temps, with 1890 not being especially cool, and a steady mounting of temps post 1980.)

    This is completely different again from my own locality, where the period between 1910 and 1919 saw the worst heat. Grafton, to the north of here, had its hottest cluster in the 1930s. Would love to have 19th century readings for those sites.

    I’m in no position to draw conclusions. Just observing. There may well be no conclusions to be drawn.

  14. egg September 6, 2014 at 9:00 pm #

    Following up on the end of glaciation in Greenland, in was a bumpy road to warming.

  15. Siliggy September 6, 2014 at 10:28 pm #

    I smell another rat at Amberley.
    Along comes Friday the 2nd of December 1949. According to the BoM raw data and including that Monday, only two days that week had made it up above the November average and none had made it up above the December average. Friday itself was 5 and a half degrees C below the Amberley December average. Yet Ipswich broke its all time water usage record of 2.62 Million gallons by more than adding a million gallons to the average dialy usage (1.63 million galons) at 2.7 Million gallons.

    The following day Saturday the 3rd of December things got worse. Amberley was still reading more than 3 degrees C below average maximum temperature but water usage at Ipswich climbed to 2.9 million gallons. On Sunday as temperatures just made it up to the mean Ipswich used a phenominal 2.94 million gallons. Then it took just one above average day Monday the 5th for the water system to begin to fail. Oddly as the temperature according to the BoM went up the water usage went down but was still at 2.85 million gallons suburbs began to have no water that evening.

    By Tuesday the RAAF station at Amberley was without water, the pressure at the hospital was low and was also low at most suburbs. This story no doubt goes on because the temperatures went up again for another two days but thats it for now. Except to say that ACORN was not adjusted from raw for these days even though the people at the time mistakenly thought they had a heatwave.

  16. Siliggy September 7, 2014 at 2:46 am #

    Oooops Sentence above should read.
    According to the BoM raw data and including that FRIDAY so it is the week leading up to and including the first day of high water usage that is cool. Then the second day of high water usage is cool, The third is average and the fourth is the first above average day of high water usage.
    Sorry for confusion.

  17. Ian George September 7, 2014 at 6:42 am #

    I have just been revisiting the Bourke data and found a somewhat interesting situation.

    Checking the CDO data, all daily max temp records from 30 Dec 1998 to 28 Aug 2002 for Bourke AWS (048245) have all been rounded off to the nearest whole degree. The ACORN record mirrors the same rounding off procedure.
    The now closed Bourke AP site (048239) which overlaps the AWS by one month (closed Jan 1999) shows no such rounding off.
    In another interesting twist, the min temps for that period have been rounded off in the CDO record but readjusted in the ACORN.
    Maybe someone just forgot to do the maximums.

    I don’t know if this has been mentioned before by anyone but surely it brings into question the ACORN ‘best practice’ meme.

    Jennifer, have you found in your research any instances where the temps have been adjusted through homogenisation in the past say 20 years (as was done to past temps)?

    Bourke CDO max temps (048245)
    Bourke ACORN max temps

  18. jennifer September 7, 2014 at 10:18 am #

    Hey Ian George

    Thanks for that info for Bourke. They moved the weather station from the PO to the airport and then stuff-up the initial set of measurements twice… including by not measuring to the correct degree of decimal places.

    So, we went from having a near perfect 125 year record for Bourke while the PO staff were in charge. To repeated stuff-ups once the Bureau took over… and a record from 1996 now full of discontinuities.

    Regarding recent homogenising… probably the largest recent unjustifiable change has been at Amberley in 1996 as detailed in my paper to the Sydney Institute. A 0.5 degree jump-up in 1996.

  19. Emily Frazer September 7, 2014 at 11:21 am #

    Comment and interesting thread by Don Aitkin here…

  20. Debbie September 7, 2014 at 11:33 am #

    ROFL! 🙂
    The more evidence that comes to light, the more likely it is that we’re just dealing with plain old bureaucratic incompetence.
    Why am I not surprised?
    That is NOT something that peer reviewed, scientific publications can fix!
    I am actually starting to feel a bit sorry for those poor people at BoM who have probably applied those algorithms to the data because someone else with greater authority told them to.
    They probably just thought they were doing their job. . . and did not believe it was their job to question why the algorithms were being applied in the first place.
    There does not seem to be any simple or sensible justification for applying those algorithms to the data sets that have so far been highlighted (Amberley, Rutherglen, Deniliquin, Bourke etc)
    Steve Goddard’s simple graphic representation of the large GHCN data sets indicates to me that those 4 stations are probably just the start?
    I’m really very relieved that at this point BoM does NOT(!) hold a monopoly over our weather data. . . even though many think they do or they should.
    It may be worth your while to check the data sets from Yanco Jen?
    The research station should have access to close to 100 years of well kept weather records and Yanco Agricultural High School has also religiously kept good records from the late 1920s. . .both with the S(?forgotten how to spell?) Screens.
    Further, the WC&IC was set up in Leeton in this same time frame and there should also be some very good and well maintained weather data sets archived somewhere by the NSW State Government.

  21. Ian George September 7, 2014 at 11:46 am #

    Thanks, Jennifer.

  22. Mikky September 7, 2014 at 4:38 pm #

    Location of the 1997 paper by Trewin on Australian heatwave data adjustments, including Bourke:

    Most papers from the Australian Meteorological Magazine are available, browse them here (open up the PAPERS tab):

  23. redress September 7, 2014 at 4:52 pm #

    The ABC has some serious white anting in progress…..

  24. Robert September 7, 2014 at 5:25 pm #

    “Either the general population will take back control of its own destiny and concern itself with community interests, guided by values such as community, solidarity and concern for others…”

    Of course, that general population will need to be guided by choice spirits such as Peter Burdon and Noam Chomsky. We could be updated on our collective aspirations nightly on the ABC.

    Considering Chomsky’s kind assessment of the Khmer Rouge, I have a pretty good idea of the kind and degree of guidance we can expect.

  25. Debbie September 7, 2014 at 8:27 pm #

    Good grief!
    That has got to be a case of biting the hand that feeds you!
    Democracy may have its pitfalls but it beats the crapola out of any other governance system!
    Where else would he be able to have something like that published EXCEPT in a functioning democracy?

  26. Neville September 8, 2014 at 8:57 am #

    Bob Tisdale’s latest post on some El nino comparisons over the last 32 years.

  27. Neville September 8, 2014 at 10:07 am #

    Do stations with long term temp records show a decline in OZ?

  28. Neville September 8, 2014 at 10:14 am #

    The Holocene was much wetter and warmer than today 6,000 years ago.

    This latest study just confirms many recent studies that also show a much warmer Hol climate optimum and much higher sea levels.

  29. Neville September 8, 2014 at 3:21 pm #

    According to Marc Morano Judith Curry and Roy Spencer will combine to take part in this debate about future energy use on 25 of sept. Let’s hope they provide a video coverage.

  30. Neville September 8, 2014 at 3:27 pm #

    Another new study finds that the sun has a profound impact on climate in the NH.

  31. handjive of September 8, 2014 at 6:01 pm #

    A climate change workshop and hypothetical being held in Broken Hill this Sunday will bring together health experts and economists for a discussion led by climate activist Tim Flannery.

    Guess ole Timbo Flim Flummery won’t be discussing discrepancies in the BoM’s handy work.

  32. Debbie September 8, 2014 at 6:37 pm #


    From Handjive’s link.

    “Western New South Wales, particularly that Tibooburra area, has got some of the fastest rates of increase in temperatures across Australia, so I think this in part of the world, that threat of increasing temperature is really important.”

    Do Jen or Ken or Bob or Ian have time to take a quick look at those particular temp records?

    Broken Hill has been operating for long enough to have a decent data set I think?
    And which data set are they referring to re Tibooburra?

    I have been out in some of those areas in Summer. . .it gets pretty damn hot and even the walls on houses and sheds are sometimes too hot to touch. I particularly remember a visit there in 1982.
    It can also get pretty damn chilly at night in Summer months when there is no cloud cover.
    It is after all semi arid and marginal country out there!

  33. jennifer September 8, 2014 at 7:45 pm #

    Ken Stewart is quite the auditor. He rarely makes an error. But if his latest post if true, and if he’s added up the numbers correctly, then it means the Bureau are numerically illiterate…

  34. egg September 8, 2014 at 9:02 pm #

    The Australian Brainwashing Company caught out yet again.

  35. Ian George September 9, 2014 at 5:51 am #

    These are the long-term annual max mean graphs for most of the stations in the area taken from the BoM’s CDO site. Not all of them go to 2013 as sites have been changed and upgraded to AWS. Some show warming of late but little change from the beginning of their records.

    Broken Hill





    BTW, Bourke has the highest long-term annual max mean of all the listed stations.
    Here is the

    But Jen is right. Ken S is the author and his comparisons between the CDO and ACORN data have revealed the extent of the problem.

  36. egg September 9, 2014 at 9:59 am #

    ‘A complete audit of the whole network is urgently needed.’

    Totally agree with Ken on this.


    Looking at the Bourke temperatures it appears that the late 19th century was warmest. It may just be a coincidence, Bathurst max temp at 44.7 C was recorded on the 12th January 1878 and its coldest was -10.8 C on 31 July 1873.

  37. egg September 9, 2014 at 10:51 am #

    Tipping Point

    ‘Meteorologists and weather science experts at the National Weather Service (NWS) say that there is a 99% chance that the we will start to see a massive cold-front sooner in the year than has ever happened, which will produce not just record-breaking snowfall, but according to Dr. Boris Scvediok, a doctor of global weather sciences, record shattering snow storms across the board, affecting the entire United States.’

    Empire News

  38. Beth Cooper September 9, 2014 at 10:55 am #

    redress re the ABC and democracy …

    of the people
    by the experts,
    and data

  39. Debbie September 9, 2014 at 11:03 am #

    Thanks Ian.
    I agree that there does seem to be a developing issue that probably needs an independent audit.
    Love your quip Beth.

  40. Beth Cooper September 9, 2014 at 11:49 am #

    Thx Debbie.)

  41. Ian George September 9, 2014 at 4:02 pm #

    They probably use GISS NASA’s heavily adjusted homogenised data sets to be able to make the claim re Tibooburra having the most warming of any area.

    This is version 1 (original data set)

    This is the ‘homogenised data, version 4

  42. Robert September 9, 2014 at 4:43 pm #

    Thanks, Ian. It seems that much of the science consists of a simple tilt…much like the head of a hockeystick. “Just remember team, the left side has to be the lower.”

    Seems the serf might be right about slithy statisticians.

  43. egg September 10, 2014 at 11:25 am #

    Tibooburra is extraordinary, I think we have a case for an audit.

  44. egg September 10, 2014 at 11:31 am #

    ‘Finding one of the ships from the Franklin Expedition from 1845 is particularly important because it indicates that all the historic sea ice reconstructions are faulty.

    ‘The Nimbus satellite pics from September 1964 showed the sea ice extent at only 6.9M km2 and finding the Franklin ship in an area which would be completely/nearly impossible for a wooden sailing ship to reach at today’s 5.02M minimum let alone the estimated 8.0M km2 (or 9.0M or 10.0M) in the historic sea ice reconstructions, means that all of the reconstructions were just faulty, alarmist.’

    Bill Illis

  45. Debbie September 10, 2014 at 12:01 pm #

    Thanks again Ian 🙂
    The difference between the original data set and the homogenised data set, version 4 at Tibooburra looks like it’s telling the same story as the sets from Bourke, Amberley, Rutherglen, Deniliquin, Bathurst etc?
    Considering ‘climate activist’ (according to the ABC link above) Tim Flannery is running a workshop out there. . .perhaps Graham Lloyd or Jen or someone can let him know about this problem?
    Or maybe they might have more luck talking to the locals who are going to attend that workshop?
    I’m also extremely curious to know what the ABC means by calling Tim Flannery a ‘climate activist’?
    What on earth is a ‘climate activist’ ????????????????
    How does one become a ‘climate activist’ and then get paid to run workshops in Broken Hill about whether cattle in marginal areas can have problems from something like heat stress?
    Wouldn’t a practising Vet from that area be the much better qualified person?
    Actually. . . wouldn’t a generational cattle farmer be likely to know more about this sort of stuff than the ‘climate activist’ Tim Flannery?

  46. Ian George September 10, 2014 at 1:56 pm #

    Let’s hope some of the older farmers/graziers whose families have run their properties since the late 1880s will have enough nous to tell Flannery some home truths about weather and climate. Maybe he might learn something – if he listens.

    Yes, it’s amazing AWGers keep up with this meme re the Arctic. Amundsen sailed the NW passage in the early 1900s. The ice melt was well noted in 1922. The USS Skate surfaced at the North Pole in the 1950s. Now this latest discovery.
    How long can they keep it up?

  47. egg September 10, 2014 at 2:56 pm #

    If they have Aunty, Fairfax and the Guardian in their pocket, it may take a little while. Here is an example of propaganda, not a word on the hiatus.

  48. egg September 10, 2014 at 8:29 pm #

    Here’s how Aunty handles the story, ocean acidification is the new bogey man and don’t mention the hiatus.

  49. Ender September 10, 2014 at 9:34 pm #

    Well here is a blast from the past. I haven’t had this sort of rubbish from this blogger for many a long year. I wonder if I can dredge up the threads where you dodged and weaved to not answer specific questions?

    And yet here you are again still peddling the same sort of dross.

    Care for some more rounds with the old Ender? Do I really have to revive the old persona?

  50. egg September 11, 2014 at 8:00 am #

    ‘THE Bureau of Meteorology has been forced to publish details of all changes made to historic temperature records as part of its homogenisation process to establish the nation’s climate change trend. Publication of the reasons for all data adjustments was a key recommendation of the bureau’s independent peer review panel which approved the bureau’s ACORN SAT methodology.’

    Lloyd / Oz


    ‘Care for some more rounds with the old Ender?’

    Are you talking to me sunshine?

  51. egg September 11, 2014 at 8:09 am #

    ‘The average maximum temperatures [of SE Australia] during the last 35 years were between two and four degrees (F) lower than the average for the previous 35 years.’

    — CSIRO 1953 (via jonova)

  52. Neville September 11, 2014 at 8:27 am #

    Egg I think it’s best to leave Ender to his little fantasies down at the bottom of the garden playing with his fairies. He lost a grip on reality many years ago and doesn’t understand simple maths or logic and reason. But ya gotta laugh.

  53. Neville September 11, 2014 at 9:03 am #

    I know it’s a waste of time but here’s some info that may help Ender. The EIA forecast of co2 emissions until 2040. Wakey, wakey.

  54. Neville September 11, 2014 at 9:31 am #

    More on the water vapour feedback and the GW pause from Roy Spencer. Is the water vapour feedback positive or negative? And what about clouds?

  55. Neville September 11, 2014 at 9:38 am #

    India is set to increase coal use substantially in the future. As we’ve seen the use of coal will boom in the non OECD as the OECD countries behave like fools, trying to increase the use of clueless solar and wind energy.

  56. egg September 11, 2014 at 9:39 am #

    ‘But ya gotta laugh.’

    It would be fun to have him back for a bit of biff, but the Mod probably won’t allow it. Methinks its either Tim or Luke.

  57. Larry Fields September 11, 2014 at 11:59 am #


    Some weeks ago, I used the word, “fraud.” Shortly after that, Moderator Ray expressed his displeasure with this particular F-word. I did not completely understand where he was coming from. It may have been the chivalrous “innocent until proven guilty” meme.

    Or it could be that you Aussies do not have real freedom of speech, because of draconian libel laws. On the other hand, we Americans are fortunate to have the public figure doctrine. If the plaintiff is a public figure, the burden of proof is on him to show utter disregard for the truth AND actual malice. At least, that’s my layman’s understanding.

    The public figure doctrine may prove to be helpful to Mark Steyn, in his fight against Mikey’s SLAPP suit against him.

    Since then, I have seen the F-word used more than once in this blog. Has there been a major flip-flop in editorial policy recently? Or was Ray simply having a bad hair day?

  58. egg September 11, 2014 at 1:13 pm #

    Ray is fairly strict and may not understand where the Sceptics and Denialati are coming from. There is little doubt that AGW is a monstrous fraud, but there is no organised conspiracy involving the Klimatariat, MSM and politicians of the left.

    Its just one of those things.

  59. Moderator Ray September 11, 2014 at 1:50 pm #

    THE F-WORD – Larry, I have tried to edit comments where “fraud” is used, but usually let it pass if the allegation is general rather than against a particular individual or organisation. As you suggest, maybe I was having a bad day.

  60. Larry Fields September 11, 2014 at 3:37 pm #

    Ender September 10, 2014 at 9:34 pm #
    “Care for some more rounds with the old Ender? Do I really have to revive the old persona?”

    Whadayaknow? I have an old persona too. In a past life, I was Vlad the Impaler. Let’s party!

  61. Larry Fields September 11, 2014 at 3:52 pm #

    Before this Open Thread rides off into the sunset, I must say that you look like a movie star in that photo.

    My late mother thought that Gone With The Wind was the greatest movie ever made. Many years later, I saw an edited version on TV, and thought that it was too schmaltzy.

    If they ever do a remake, I nominate you for the role of Scarlett O’Hara. It would be more interesting if the leading lady had an Aussie accent!

  62. Neville September 11, 2014 at 5:59 pm #

    Michael Mann is caught out telling more porky pies. It seems he just can’t help himself.

  63. jennifer September 11, 2014 at 8:53 pm #

    Two important posts at Jo Nova’s blog…

    I’ve previously mentioned the Deacon 1952 paper. Remember with the charts showing max temps coming down from 1880s at Bourke, Alice Springs, Narrabri and Hay. Jo has more on it here…

    And the first of the series by Jo on how much hotter it was between 1880 and 1910 is about old CSIRO records…


    I’ll be writing about the announcement that the BOM has released some methodology, but not immediately…

  64. egg September 12, 2014 at 7:40 am #

    Fantastic news, the truth is out there.

    ‘In a study published in The Journal of Geology, an international group of scientists analyzing existing and new evidence have determined a cosmic impact event, such as a comet or meteorite, to be the only plausible hypothesis to explain all the unusual occurrences at the onset of the Younger Dryas period.’


  65. Neville September 12, 2014 at 8:21 am #

    Bob Tisdale looks at a new study based on corals and temps in the Florida keys. He finds there has been no SST warming in that area for the past 80 years. IOW the study is wrong and corals are not at risk . But how do these papers get a pass in PR when anyone can quickly check the results and find their main assertions are wrong?

  66. Neville September 12, 2014 at 8:36 am #

    Steve McIntyre gives an inventory of Briffa and Mann’s “hide the decline” . And this is supposed to be science???

  67. Neville September 12, 2014 at 10:26 am #

    Germany’s new offshore wind park is a disaster and has to be shut down after short test runs. And now after a 340 million euro loss even the lawyers are getting involved.

  68. egg September 12, 2014 at 2:58 pm #

    Natural Variables Cause Hiatus ** chuckle **

    ‘JRC scientists analysed surface temperature data records – which began in 1850 – to separate natural variations from secular (i.e., long-term) trends. They identified three hiatus periods (1878-1907, 1945-1969 and 2001 to date), during which global warming slowed down.

    ‘These hiatus periods coincide with natural cooling phases – the multidecadal variability (MDV), most likely caused by natural oceanic oscillations. The scientists therefore conclude that the MDV is the main cause of these hiatus periods during which global warming decelerated.’


  69. Neville September 12, 2014 at 4:39 pm #

    Even NOAA’s 2012 SL report shows about 5 inches of SLR per century and there has been a deceleration for about ten years. But we must keep asking, where is the increased co2 impact after 1950.

  70. Neville September 13, 2014 at 8:12 am #

    Hopefully the EU is starting to grow some balls and let’s hope they continue to stand up to these green extremists. It’s not before time and is probably another by product of the Russian and Ukranian conflict.

  71. Neville September 13, 2014 at 8:34 am #

    Wonderful to see Jennifer’s latest post on the BOM scandal has got a run at the GWP Forum.

  72. jennifer September 13, 2014 at 8:38 am #

    Just did a radio interview with Paul and George on 2UE about homogenisation of the temperature record including at Rutherglen…

  73. egg September 13, 2014 at 10:10 am #

    Chuckling over the Empire News satire (up the thread), it now appears we need to take it more seriously.

  74. Neville September 13, 2014 at 10:14 am #

    The big chill has come early for some parts of Canada and the US. Some of the earliest snow for certain areas since the 1970s. I’ll bet they wish they had more warming instead.

  75. Neville September 13, 2014 at 10:16 am #

    Sorry Egg, you beat me by a few minutes.

  76. Neville September 13, 2014 at 1:24 pm #

    Here is a talk by Murry Salby to the UK house of Commons in Nov 2013. And you can see the co2 emissions map from the Japanese satellite at 29min 20 secs.

    Needless to say the highest co2 emissions come from the Amazon basin , Equatorial Africa and parts of SE Asia. OZ and other first world countries have lower emissions. Unfortunately the sound quality is poor.

  77. egg September 13, 2014 at 2:42 pm #

    And here we have a satirical spoof.

  78. egg September 13, 2014 at 3:26 pm #

    ‘The impact climate change will have on the world’s future is a subject of hot debate – some experts believe the effects will be minimal while others have predicted scenes of devastation.

    ‘Now artists have imagined how London’s landmarks may change in a hundred years or more, including soldiers riding on camels at Horse Guard’s parade, futuristic flying cars above the City, a giant lily pond at Piccadilly Circus, and the Houses of Parliament marooned in water.’

    Read more:
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  79. jennifer September 13, 2014 at 11:46 pm #

    Important new post by Steve Goddard… suggesting 1878 was the hottest year in Australia with 1889 also a very hot year.

  80. egg September 14, 2014 at 7:39 am #

    Steve also had this up a while back, the 1878 heat was a universal phenomenon.

  81. Neville September 14, 2014 at 8:01 am #

    Blogger Bill Illis had this to say about the very hot year 1878. So 1877 to 1878 was a super el nino, like 1997-98. More evidence that all this is just more weather and there is zero chance of changing it, no matter how many trillions $ we throw at it.

    Bill Illis says:

    April 5, 2014 at 2:06 pm

    1877-78 was the biggest Super-El Nino in history.

    There is a pattern of areas which are most affected by the ENSO and one can see that in Minnesota’s climate in the winter of 1877-78. As more stations were added to Hadcrut, more of the areas impacted by the El Nino got into the record.

  82. egg September 14, 2014 at 8:09 am #

    The musings of chiefio on 1878.

    A super El Nino makes sense.

  83. egg September 14, 2014 at 8:12 am #

    And the last par in that link.

    ‘I also note that the date of this warm winter just happens to be slightly earlier than the 1880 cut off of GIStemp. Whlie Hadley likes to use 1850. I’d often wondered about that. I guess now we know… GISS wouldn’t want to start a trend line on an uptick, would they…’

  84. Neville September 14, 2014 at 8:29 am #

    More from Bill Illis on super el ninos like 1878, 1915, 1941, 1983 and 1998. Bill mentions that these super el ninos sometimes occur when the AMO peaks.

    Bill Illis

    April 5, 2009 at 10:50 am

    To explain the 1998 temperature spike, you need more than the 1997-98 El Nino.

    Although it was big one, it wasn’t especially out of the ordinary as there was other big El Ninos such as in 1982-83 and other years which didn’t produce nearly the impact.

    If you add in the super spike that the AMO had as well in 1998, you can get closer to the impact.

    There are other super temperature spikes in the record – 1878, 1915, 1941, 1973 among others. These seem to occur (more often anyway) when both the ENSO and the AMO spike at the same time.

    In terms of the rogue wave idea, there is something called atmospheric angular momentum which could be the driver. During El Ninos, the earth’s rotation literally speeds up (a few tenths of a millisecond) which happens when the winds slow down and potentially causes warmer Pacific ocean waters to backup into the El Nino region. There is a strong correlation actually but there are times when it seems to be off quite a bit.

  85. egg September 14, 2014 at 9:02 am #

    ‘Around the year 1878, a dramatic shift in the climate occurred coincident with and perhaps triggered by an impulsive spike in temperature. As a result, the climate moved from a cooling phase of about -.7 °C/century to a warming phase of about +.5°C/century, which has remained constant to the present. We see that this period of time was coincident with a large spike in solar activity.’

    Jeffery S Patterson

  86. jennifer September 14, 2014 at 9:25 am #

    Hey Egg.

    I tend to think that there was warming to 1878. Cooling kicked in some time after 1909 until about 1960. Then warming from 1960 until about 2002.

  87. egg September 14, 2014 at 10:15 am #

    Emerging out of the Dalton that sounds reasonable, I’ll have a closer look. In the 20th century the cooling seemed to settle in around the late 1940s thru to 1976, when there was a climate shift which took the warming to the end of the century.

    I mentioned earlier that William Dawes’ meteorological journal 1788-91 (Robert McAfee) is a valuable resource and from my rough calculations appears to be around a degree C above average at Observatory Hill. This was prior to the Dalton slide and I’m unfazed by the knowledge that Dawes had no Stevenson Screen.

    If anyone out there can confirm my findings, then we might have a strong argument that the sun is the primary driver of our earthly climate.

  88. Neville September 14, 2014 at 11:17 am #

    The AGW theory says that co2 causes more water vapour and is therefore a positive feedback. But a new paper finds that water vapour in the troposphere is not controlled by our increased co2 emissions but by other natural processes.

    The 2014 Zahn et al study also finds that water vapour acts as a negative feedback and cooling , not a positive feedback and more warming. As I’ve said before time will tell.

  89. egg September 14, 2014 at 11:29 am #

    What happened in 1878 was an ‘impulsive spike’ and a ‘step response’, reading through the comments is a wonderful experience, they make a complex issue understandable even to a layman.

  90. egg September 14, 2014 at 12:59 pm #

    Not sure if this is the Gergis Hockey Stick, nevertheless its a hive of information.

  91. egg September 14, 2014 at 6:14 pm #

    From the Gergis et al link.

    ‘The ranges of daily extremes in temperature and MSLP from the Dawes data compare well with those from the modern observations for all seasons, except for Tmax in summer, when Dawes’s data are likely to slightly overestimate the highest maximum temperatures due to inadequate thermometer exposure.

    ‘These results suggest that the record is useful for examining relative (rather than absolute) climate variations experienced during the first years of European settlement in Australia.’


    I would like to see a second opinion on that so called ‘overestimate’.

  92. egg September 14, 2014 at 8:19 pm #

    Here we see the 1878 impulsive spike.

  93. egg September 14, 2014 at 8:26 pm #

    Plus the break point of 1909 and warming to WW2.

  94. egg September 15, 2014 at 2:42 pm #

    ‘Cooling kicked in some time after 1909 until about 1960.’

    Yep, it does appear to be the case in the SH.

    I’m speculating that we are witnessing a smaller version of the bipolar see-saw.

  95. jennifer September 15, 2014 at 3:44 pm #

    Egg, which post is that chart from Warwick Hughes from? I mean I would like to see the chart you have just linked to in some context. Jen

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