Open Thread

IF there is someone you know who may be interested in doing a masters or PhD in weather and/or climate forecasting, applications are still open. They need to be interested in numbers and ideas, be a science and/or engineering graduate, resident and/or citizen of Australia and/or New Zealand and want to live and study on the Sunshine Coast, Queensland. More details at the CQ University website here.

John and Caroline in Noosa National Park.

John and Caroline in Noosa National Park.

33 Responses to Open Thread

  1. egg September 3, 2014 at 10:42 am #

    Human folly the cause of recent UK floods.

  2. jennifer September 3, 2014 at 11:11 am #

    Another great article by Graham Lloyd in today’s The Australian…

    It begins… “THE removal of a longstanding temperature record at Bourke of 125 degrees Fahrenheit (51.7C) set in 1909 was the result of a critical 1997 paper that revised a string of records and brought Australia’s hottest recorded temperature into the second half of the 20th century.”

  3. handjive of September 3, 2014 at 11:32 am #

    Never on a Sunday:
    “You can kiss me on a cool day
    A hot day, a wet day,
    What ever one you choose …”

    Many analogies come to mind.
    None too complimentary.

  4. handjive of September 3, 2014 at 12:40 pm #

    The ABC wades in …
    3 September, 2014:

    “The Australian, for example, has recently taken to performing some activist journalism that one could suggest is privileging “the views of activist groups over the views of the wider community”.

    Despite a majority of Australians agreeing with the science, The Australian’s activism against climate-change science has recently seen it publish claims that the Bureau of Meteorology has fiddled its temperature data in an effort to suggest warming has occurred.

    Except, rather than fiddle the figures, the Bureau merely followed a standard and well regarded practice of homogenising the raw data that “is carried out by meteorological authorities around the world as best practice, to ensure that climate data is consistent through time”.

  5. Debbie September 3, 2014 at 1:16 pm #

    There is an amazing amount of ducking & weaving going on.
    The ABC link from handjive is a classic.
    They have done an exemplary job of totally missing the point and ignoring the questions that have been asked in favour of answering a question that neither Jen or Graham Lloyd has asked.
    It is very disappointing to see this behaviour from BoM and the ABC.
    BoM does not OWN the weather/climate or an
    exclusive authoritarian right to comment on climate/weather anymore than the ABC owns a right to dictate what ‘the general public’ agrees about ‘the science’ (or whatever amongst the gobbledygook).
    They’ve just ended up merely speculating about political motives.
    News flash!!!!
    Any contentious public policy debate is vulnerable to political motives!
    It doesn’t change the fact that BoM may have applied those algorithms incorrectly.
    The reasons for that could of course range from a simple mistake all the way through to suspect motives.

  6. jennifer September 3, 2014 at 1:59 pm #

    Steve Goddard/Tony Heller is starting to work up some interesting charts for Australia…
    but before you click put away all your preconceived ideas about what the data should look like…

  7. Ian George September 3, 2014 at 3:17 pm #

    I only wish that were true but wherever homogenisation is used, it throws up anomalies. I have checked many examples where daily raw temps have been altered. I have then checked nearby stations and found they bear no consistency with each other.
    For instance, Bourke in Jan 1939 was the hottest site of all the neighbouring stations (which is consistent with its Jan long-term mean being higher).
    After homogenisation, Bourke became the coolest of all the neighbouring sites – Bourke was adjusted down and the neighbouring stations adjusted up.
    You only need to look at the work done by Jennifer, Ken Stewart and now SG to see that this ‘world’s best practice’ has real problems.

  8. Debbie September 3, 2014 at 3:40 pm #

    Steve Goddard has graphed raw maxima data from the GHCN & Jen & others have looked at raw minima data.
    They indicate that there is nothing new or alarming in the Aussie weather/climate and if anything it’s possibly cyclic.
    After applying all the clever algorithms, truncating, smoothing etc. . .the resultant graphs don’t resemble the graphs of the raw data and indicate a clear incremental warming trend.

  9. Itz Me September 3, 2014 at 6:23 pm #

    The lunatics are taking over the asylum and making laws against an innocent trace gas that is good for us. One can only surmise they are either very ignorant , insane , or intentionally misleading us. Given what has been known for many years the last option is the most likely with the insanity bit mixed in as well. I smell a big UN rat.

  10. hatrack September 4, 2014 at 6:21 am #

    Homogenisation, ACORN-SAT, algorithms, truncating, smoothing, etc., etc., etc.

    Here’s an idea. Why don’t we just read the thermometer, plot it on graph paper, draw a line and see where the bloody thing goes?

    The excuse that changing temperatures is OK because “world’s best practises” were used is like a burglar pleading not guilty because he left the home owner copies of his Work Method Statement, MSDS’s and ISO 2000 Quality Assurance Certificate.

  11. Debbie September 4, 2014 at 7:32 am #

    Yes Hat Rack.
    Good question.
    Why have they ditched the obvious simple approach?
    Why are they claiming their approach is a better approach?
    The reasons offered so far are not justifiable.
    If they can’t justify why they thought it was necessary to apply those algorithms to the data then I repeat. . .Jen’s comment that the data may have been corrupted unnecessarily & for no clear or useful purpose is valid.
    It can also potentially corrupt any further research into weather and climate.

  12. egg September 4, 2014 at 8:08 am #

    Tipping Point Spotted in US

  13. egg September 4, 2014 at 8:20 am #

    Arctic Ice Melt Stalls

    It might pan out to be nothing, but I’m putting my money on 2014 as the tipping point year.

  14. Neville September 4, 2014 at 8:57 am #

    While Jennifer, Ken, Jo etc have been doing great work with our local stns and temps I think someone should look more closely at global temp trends since 1910.

    I’ve looked at all the warming and cooling trends at WFTs from 1910 to 2013 and the real stand out is 1998 to 2013.
    Had 3 shows a cooling trend while Had 4 and Giss show a warming trend. So how do they justify these adjustments and how can the earlier cooling Had 3 now become a warming Had 4? Here’s the link to WFTs.

  15. jennifer September 4, 2014 at 9:45 am #

    A new thread has started at the Converstion on exactly what we are good at… comparing the raw and official temp records…

    Get your comment up. Be polite so they have no reason to delete.

    Keep a copy of your comment before you post it. If it doesn’t appear, or appears and then disappears, immediately post your comment explaining that it has not appeared at the Conversation, and/or appeared and then gone… at this thread.

    I’ve just posted this comment… Following a similar approach to that detailed by Neville Nicholls allowed me to start comparing the raw data with the official record (the ACORN-SAT) record for places like Bourke, Amberley and Rutherglen. What I found, particularly after comparing mean annual minimum temperatures, were large changes to the original data in the development of the official record. Changes that affected the direction and/or magnitude of the trend. I detailed these concerns in my paper to the Sydney Institute which can be read here…

  16. jennifer September 4, 2014 at 10:36 am #

    I love this comment at The Conversation…

    Gary Luke

    thoroughly disgusted
    In reply to David Menere

    It’s all been inflated so much. The small problem is that the necessary homogenisation for a handful of sites doesn’t seem to comply with BOM’s published methods. For instance, anyone who has spent time at Rutherglen and Hillston would question why the temperature records at one of their sites is used to amend the records of the other. It’s probably just the sort of error we all make when handling masses of data. It shouldn’t need all this carrying on for BOM to just double check it and issue a correction.

  17. egg September 4, 2014 at 1:55 pm #

    This is getting a few laughs around the traps, the Conversation goes out on a limb.

  18. Neville September 4, 2014 at 3:33 pm #

    Another new study finds that drought conditions were much worse over California/SW USA . The study period covers the last 3,000 years and they conclude that the present period is experiencing one of the lowest levels of drought during that time.

  19. egg September 4, 2014 at 4:17 pm #

    The Klimatariat backtracks on the hiatus.

  20. Debbie September 4, 2014 at 5:27 pm #

    I went through the registration process and then noticed that Jen and Bill have already had their say, put up with the usual gobbledegook that included outright evasion of the actual points they were making and have now decided to use their time more wisely.
    Good decision Jen and Bill.
    I also thought that the comment from Gary Luke was eminently sensible.
    Especially this bit:
    ” It shouldn’t need all this carrying on for BOM to just double check it and issue a correction.”

    I would also add that if the issue is a failure by BoM to comply with the published methods, it does not need a ‘peer reviewed publication’ to correct it.
    Our bureaucracies certainly don’t need a ‘peer reviewed publication’ to ascertain that members of the public have ‘failed to comply’!!!!!!!

  21. egg September 4, 2014 at 6:15 pm #

    China and Indian leaders to skip UN Climate Summit

    ‘The top leaders of China and India aren’t planning to attend this month’s United Nations summit on climate change, signaling tepid support for a global pact to cut greenhouse gases among two of the largest emitters.

  22. hunter September 4, 2014 at 7:22 pm #

    It is fun to watch the activists who created the shibboleth of climate now become the reactionary defenders and self-appointed censors of their monster.

  23. egg September 4, 2014 at 8:05 pm #

    The Denialati saw this coming, but their words fell on deaf ears.

    ‘Emergency measures will be introduced to prevent the lights going out this winter.

    ‘Offices and factories will be offered compensation to undergo 1970s-style energy rationing and shut down for up to four hours a day to prevent households being plunged into darkness.

    ‘In addition, owners of old power stations will be asked to switch them back on to meet the country’s demands.’

    Read more:
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  24. Neville September 4, 2014 at 8:45 pm #

    Bob Carter says in “Taxing Air” that HAD 4 is the data set used by the IPCC. I’ve just compared the trend from 1900 to 1950 and 1950 to 2000 using HAD 4 and it is much higher in the first 51 years. So how does that work????
    BTW HAD 3 is much closer but still higher from 1900 to 1950.

  25. Neville September 4, 2014 at 9:04 pm #

    Extremist Sir Paul Nurse says climate sceptics should be crushed and buried.

  26. Neville September 4, 2014 at 9:16 pm #

    A new SL study finds that the SLR expected by 2100 from Greenland melt could be exaggerated. In fact they think the previous estimate could be 66% too high.

  27. Jennifer Marohay September 5, 2014 at 5:38 am #

    Go and leave a comment at The Australian here…

    Another great article by Graham Lloyd, this time on temperatures at Deniliquin and how homogenisation has created a discontinuity in the record and also turned cooling into warming.

  28. jennifer September 5, 2014 at 7:41 am #

    Just did an interview with Alan Jones on 2GB, I think it went OK.

  29. jennifer September 5, 2014 at 11:25 am #

    You can find the interview I did with Alan Jones this morning here…

    Thanks to 2GB for having me on the program.

  30. Neville September 5, 2014 at 1:14 pm #

    Brilliant column from Matt Ridley in the WSJ.

    He lists all the BS about the forecast warming that didn’t occur and the extremist’s excuses still trying to cover their backsides.

  31. Itz Me September 5, 2014 at 6:54 pm #

    I just listened to the Alan Jones interview , sounded great Jen you spoke very well and Alan spelt it out.

  32. Neville September 5, 2014 at 7:25 pm #

    A 2014 SL study finds that there is no increase in the rate SLR over the last 100 years and there is no AGW component to be found in the trend. The rate of SLR is about 1.6mm a year or 16 cm a century and that’s about 6.4 inches by 2114.

  33. Kate September 7, 2014 at 1:26 pm #

    As a farmer, I don’t really care about a small rise or fall in a homogenised pattern of data. What most farmers are interested in are patterns and cycles which homogenising of data seems to remove. For instance – if a particular area has a pattern of 7 year drought every 130 years with elevated temps then we want to know about it in case that 130 years is coming up. If there is a peak period of flooding every 30 years, then we want to know about it. Many of the so-called anomalies that have been removed or distorted to meet the homogenisation process (without any non-climatic factors to justify it) may be exactly the data that is needed for accurate predictions of cyclic weather patterns. Perhaps the removal of these anomalous events has led to the BOM weather predictions becoming increasingly inaccurate and then labelled as climate disruption rather that natural cycles that they failed to predict.

Website by 46digital