Jennifer Marohasy

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IF there is someone you know who may be interested in doing a masters or PhD in weather and/or climate forecasting, applications are still open. They need to be interested in numbers and ideas, be a science and/or engineering graduate, resident and/or citizen of Australia and/or New Zealand and want to live and study on the Sunshine Coast, Queensland. More details at the CQ University website here.

John and Caroline in Noosa National Park.
John and Caroline in Noosa National Park.

Reader Interactions

Comments

  2. Avatar photojennifer says

    Another great article by Graham Lloyd in today’s The Australian… http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/heat-off-bourke-after-bureau-of-meteorology-revision/story-fn7x79y7-1227045560295

    It begins… “THE removal of a longstanding temperature record at Bourke of 125 degrees Fahrenheit (51.7C) set in 1909 was the result of a critical 1997 paper that revised a string of records and brought Australia’s hottest recorded temperature into the second half of the 20th century.”

  4. handjive of climatefraud.inc says

    The ABC wades in …
    3 September, 2014:

    “The Australian, for example, has recently taken to performing some activist journalism that one could suggest is privileging “the views of activist groups over the views of the wider community”.

    Despite a majority of Australians agreeing with the science, The Australian’s activism against climate-change science has recently seen it publish claims that the Bureau of Meteorology has fiddled its temperature data in an effort to suggest warming has occurred.

    Except, rather than fiddle the figures, the Bureau merely followed a standard and well regarded practice of homogenising the raw data that “is carried out by meteorological authorities around the world as best practice, to ensure that climate data is consistent through time”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-03/jericho-government-goes-cold-on-global-warming/5714026

  5. Debbie says

    There is an amazing amount of ducking & weaving going on.
    The ABC link from handjive is a classic.
    They have done an exemplary job of totally missing the point and ignoring the questions that have been asked in favour of answering a question that neither Jen or Graham Lloyd has asked.
    It is very disappointing to see this behaviour from BoM and the ABC.
    BoM does not OWN the weather/climate or an
    exclusive authoritarian right to comment on climate/weather anymore than the ABC owns a right to dictate what ‘the general public’ agrees about ‘the science’ (or whatever amongst the gobbledygook).
    They’ve just ended up merely speculating about political motives.
    News flash!!!!
    Any contentious public policy debate is vulnerable to political motives!
    It doesn’t change the fact that BoM may have applied those algorithms incorrectly.
    The reasons for that could of course range from a simple mistake all the way through to suspect motives.

  7. Ian George says

    handjive
    I only wish that were true but wherever homogenisation is used, it throws up anomalies. I have checked many examples where daily raw temps have been altered. I have then checked nearby stations and found they bear no consistency with each other.
    For instance, Bourke in Jan 1939 was the hottest site of all the neighbouring stations (which is consistent with its Jan long-term mean being higher).
    After homogenisation, Bourke became the coolest of all the neighbouring sites – Bourke was adjusted down and the neighbouring stations adjusted up.
    You only need to look at the work done by Jennifer, Ken Stewart and now SG to see that this ‘world’s best practice’ has real problems.

  8. Debbie says

    Hmmm?
    Steve Goddard has graphed raw maxima data from the GHCN & Jen & others have looked at raw minima data.
    They indicate that there is nothing new or alarming in the Aussie weather/climate and if anything it’s possibly cyclic.
    After applying all the clever algorithms, truncating, smoothing etc. . .the resultant graphs don’t resemble the graphs of the raw data and indicate a clear incremental warming trend.

  9. Itz Me says

    The lunatics are taking over the asylum and making laws against an innocent trace gas that is good for us. One can only surmise they are either very ignorant , insane , or intentionally misleading us. Given what has been known for many years the last option is the most likely with the insanity bit mixed in as well. I smell a big UN rat.

  10. hatrack says

    Homogenisation, ACORN-SAT, algorithms, truncating, smoothing, etc., etc., etc.

    Here’s an idea. Why don’t we just read the thermometer, plot it on graph paper, draw a line and see where the bloody thing goes?

    The excuse that changing temperatures is OK because “world’s best practises” were used is like a burglar pleading not guilty because he left the home owner copies of his Work Method Statement, MSDS’s and ISO 2000 Quality Assurance Certificate.

  11. Debbie says

    Yes Hat Rack.
    Good question.
    Why have they ditched the obvious simple approach?
    Why are they claiming their approach is a better approach?
    The reasons offered so far are not justifiable.
    If they can’t justify why they thought it was necessary to apply those algorithms to the data then I repeat. . .Jen’s comment that the data may have been corrupted unnecessarily & for no clear or useful purpose is valid.
    It can also potentially corrupt any further research into weather and climate.

  14. Neville says

    While Jennifer, Ken, Jo etc have been doing great work with our local stns and temps I think someone should look more closely at global temp trends since 1910.

    I’ve looked at all the warming and cooling trends at WFTs from 1910 to 2013 and the real stand out is 1998 to 2013.
    Had 3 shows a cooling trend while Had 4 and Giss show a warming trend. So how do they justify these adjustments and how can the earlier cooling Had 3 now become a warming Had 4? Here’s the link to WFTs.

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1910/to:1940/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1975/to:1998/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1940/to:1975/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1998/to:2013/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1910/to:1940/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1940%20/to:1975/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1975/to:1998/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/to:2013/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1998/to:2013/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1975/to:1998/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1910/to:1940/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1940/to:1975/trend

  15. Avatar photojennifer says

    A new thread has started at the Converstion on exactly what we are good at… comparing the raw and official temp records…

    https://theconversation.com/how-to-become-a-citizen-climate-sleuth-31100

    Get your comment up. Be polite so they have no reason to delete.

    Keep a copy of your comment before you post it. If it doesn’t appear, or appears and then disappears, immediately post your comment explaining that it has not appeared at the Conversation, and/or appeared and then gone… at this thread.

    I’ve just posted this comment… Following a similar approach to that detailed by Neville Nicholls allowed me to start comparing the raw data with the official record (the ACORN-SAT) record for places like Bourke, Amberley and Rutherglen. What I found, particularly after comparing mean annual minimum temperatures, were large changes to the original data in the development of the official record. Changes that affected the direction and/or magnitude of the trend. I detailed these concerns in my paper to the Sydney Institute which can be read here… http://jennifermarohasy.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Changing_Temperature_Data.pdf

  16. Avatar photojennifer says

    I love this comment at The Conversation…

    Gary Luke

    thoroughly disgusted
    In reply to David Menere

    It’s all been inflated so much. The small problem is that the necessary homogenisation for a handful of sites doesn’t seem to comply with BOM’s published methods. For instance, anyone who has spent time at Rutherglen and Hillston would question why the temperature records at one of their sites is used to amend the records of the other. It’s probably just the sort of error we all make when handling masses of data. It shouldn’t need all this carrying on for BOM to just double check it and issue a correction.

  20. Debbie says

    I went through the registration process and then noticed that Jen and Bill have already had their say, put up with the usual gobbledegook that included outright evasion of the actual points they were making and have now decided to use their time more wisely.
    Good decision Jen and Bill.
    I also thought that the comment from Gary Luke was eminently sensible.
    Especially this bit:
    ” It shouldn’t need all this carrying on for BOM to just double check it and issue a correction.”

    I would also add that if the issue is a failure by BoM to comply with the published methods, it does not need a ‘peer reviewed publication’ to correct it.
    Our bureaucracies certainly don’t need a ‘peer reviewed publication’ to ascertain that members of the public have ‘failed to comply’!!!!!!!

  22. hunter says

    It is fun to watch the activists who created the shibboleth of climate now become the reactionary defenders and self-appointed censors of their monster.

  23. egg says

    The Denialati saw this coming, but their words fell on deaf ears.

    ‘Emergency measures will be introduced to prevent the lights going out this winter.

    ‘Offices and factories will be offered compensation to undergo 1970s-style energy rationing and shut down for up to four hours a day to prevent households being plunged into darkness.

    ‘In addition, owners of old power stations will be asked to switch them back on to meet the country’s demands.’

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2741039/Blackout-alert-Offices-factories-undergo-1970s-style-electricity-rationing-winter-stop-households-plunged-darkness.html#ixzz3CL85jfHp
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  31. Itz Me says

    I just listened to the Alan Jones interview , sounded great Jen you spoke very well and Alan spelt it out.

  33. Kate says

    As a farmer, I don’t really care about a small rise or fall in a homogenised pattern of data. What most farmers are interested in are patterns and cycles which homogenising of data seems to remove. For instance – if a particular area has a pattern of 7 year drought every 130 years with elevated temps then we want to know about it in case that 130 years is coming up. If there is a peak period of flooding every 30 years, then we want to know about it. Many of the so-called anomalies that have been removed or distorted to meet the homogenisation process (without any non-climatic factors to justify it) may be exactly the data that is needed for accurate predictions of cyclic weather patterns. Perhaps the removal of these anomalous events has led to the BOM weather predictions becoming increasingly inaccurate and then labelled as climate disruption rather that natural cycles that they failed to predict.