The only thing that interferes with my learning is my education. Who said that? What does it mean?
Of course, for the educated climate scientist this chart that shows the mean annual maximum temperatures for Bathurst gaol and Bourke post office should be homogenised. But what beauty and intrigue in raw data that throws up an identical cooling trend when the entire record, unhomogenised is plotted for these two locations in New South Wales, both with exceptionally long records.
I shall not be posting so much for the next little while, as I’ve technical papers to write on rainfall forecasting, diatoms, frogs and also temperatures.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
As I stated in another comment.
‘The homogenised crowd should try their milk straight from the cow’.
Slightly chilled.
The difference is amazing.
Cheers, Slowlurnr.
Thanks Jennifer, how do you have the patience to deal with these charlatans and their chicanery?
As a chef I can say that properly homogenised milk made from high quality sources is pretty damn fantastic, and better than unhomogenised milk from a poor quality provider.
Homogenised itself is neither good or bad, its the quality of the ingredients, the quality of the homogenisation and your intended purpose that make the difference.
It would be wonderful if a warmist climatologist could be found to explain why homogenization is necessary and why the raw data shows an incorrect cooling when a strong warming is reality.
We need the counter argument because the appearance of malfeasance is so clear that the continued warming position seems untenable to the reasonable mind.
(Yes, the support for anti-witchcraft and 29th century end-of-the-world also seems irrational, but there were “reasons” even if in hindsight they were unfounded.)
Hey Pauly,
As a chef, you should be aware that most healthy diets recommend UNPROCESSED products.
Homogenized is what you get at McDonalds & Dominos.
Quality food doesn’t need the endless herbs and spices that chefs love
to use, trying to ‘enhance the flavours’.
Cheers, Slowlurnr.
Seeing we are talking about food, homogenised is earth-science-speak for cooking the books.
Corrections
Have readings been taken at any equivalent site in Bourke or Bathurst since the 1982 and 1996 reading dates shown?
Using the raw data it is possible to draw an interactive graph that shows shorter term changes in trends.
For Bathurst the chart provided shows an upward trend from about 1965 to 1982.
I collected the data for the cost of coal sourced electric energy into the NSW grid for fifteen years to 2012 and that showed an average increase of about 1.6% per annum per KWH on a base figure of 3.4 cents per KWH.
The poles and wires explanation, so dear to politicians, is a smokescreen hiding the true cost of renewables.
According the Robert Hargraves PhD the payback cost of solar and wind power is 18-22 cents (US) per KWK.
John, There is data for Bathurst Ag Station from 1909 through until the present and a broken Bourke airport record from 1996. Broken at Bourke because after they closed down the post office they had recording problems at the airport and then moved the station again. So for Bourke there is a a beautiful 125 year continuous record that was the responsibility of postal workers, then the Bureau took over and now it is so segmented it must be homogenised, from 1996.
Great title 🙂
‘Absolutely Politically Incorrect’
🙂
Unless it was a rhetorical question, it was Einstein who said it.
Sorry Darryl, but that is the biggest load of tosh that shows like Masterchef feed the public.
Chefs rely on highly processed consistent products. Flour, oil, salt, vinegar, wine, milk, cream for example all need to be highly processed in order to give a consistent product. You change the size of the grain of salt you are using you need to recalibrate all of the salt levels in all of your recipes.
Farmed produce for products such as fish and game are preferable because they give you a consistent product you can replicate 7 days a week for months on end. Even vegetables, while not processed per se, are chosen based on consistent size and flavour.
The biggest skill of a chef is knowing how to adjust for natural variations and to deliver a consistent product. Making something funky with one off ingredients – that’s something home cooks can do. Getting the same meal right 40 times a day, 7 days a week is what chefs do.
Sorry for the rant.
Well Pauly you just put me off fancy restaurants for a while.
I might be wrong but I always thought a great chef can create a tasty meal from the seasonally available ingredients, not just replicate the same over and over.
Obviously I was wrong,
If I want my food tasting consistently the same, I buy it in frozen packets from the supermarket.
Or go to the food court in shopping centre.
Sorry if this should have gone to the open thread?
To this list of places that cooled can be added the “Rutherglen cluster”, Rutherglen and its nearby (distances less than around 50 km) stations (Beechworth, Benalla, Wangaratta, Albury, Corowa, Tocumwal, Tatura and Lemnos).
***ALL*** these stations show a remarkably consistent 20th century cooling trend of average annual minimum temperatures. Besides the trend, the variations from year to year are also very consistent, confirming the reliability of the RAW Rutherglen temperature measurements.
The Rutherglen station may or may not have been moved, and those moves may or may not have had noticeable effects, but the regional consistency of the RAW data is PROOF that the BoMs homogenisation process has failed, as others (Jennifer, Ken Stewart, apologies to anyone else that should be mentioned) already know.
Dear Jennifer,
I am sure that you know that George Bernard Shaw was responsible for your quotation.
The point that he is making is that it is possible to acquire knowledge and regurgitate it without actually understanding what it is that you are talking about.The analogy that I use is that – any fool can learn to drive a car but relatively few understand the architectural design of a car. Few understand the metallurgy involved. Few understand the chemistry and physics involved in the production of energy that provides propulsion for the car etc.
This flaw is the basis in our education system. I have just finished reading “Why Johnny can’t add” by Morris Kline. He deals with this problem in mathematics. In recent research into climate matters during a course that was conducted by U3A in my area, I checked to discover what Maths was being employed by climate scientists. The internet replied that the Navier Stokes equation is used to co-relate all the variables that are being monitored around the world. The only flaw in this method is that in any mathematical equation the variables must remain constant for the duration of the calculation. By definition the monitored variables are constantly changing and at different rates, rendering the conclusions from the use of this equation open to interpretation by whoever is doing the maths and therefore free to create a finding suitable for any agenda that is being pursued.
@keith goff
I think you are incorrect
http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/alberteins110208.html
Keith Goff, you are right. So-called climate scientists believe they understand climate by looking at some temperature figures and some geography, then make up or run black box models which answer their perceptions of geography, However, from my reading of published articles and papers on climate and so-called climate change not one, repeat not one, so-called climate scientist (includes Lindzen) understands the basic engineering sciences of thermodynamics, heat & mass transfer, fluid dynamics, electrical & magnetic fields & circuits, and reaction kinetics necessary to begin an assessment of the complexities of climate. One can not ignore the effect of radiation on the upper atmosphere leading to the ozone layer, the movement of the magnetic poles, jet streams, ocean currents, plant life on land & in the sea, or the sequence of processes and events (eg rotation of the earth leading to seasons, radiation from the sun giving warmth to parts of the earth’s surface, CO2 levels following temperature on a daily, seasonal and cyclical changes, plant growth or lack of growth dependent on a combination of temperature, precipitation and CO2) etc etc.
Putting CO2 in a box of a black box climate model just shows lack of competence and understanding. All climate models fail because CO2’s only relevance to climate is its effect on plant growth.
A new study finds that HAD cru temp data was unreliable before 1950. So how can we compare our so called warming of the later 20th century to this earlier, flattened, unreliable record? Con tricks anyone?
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/new-paper-finds-global-temperature-data.html
‘All climate models fail because CO2′s only relevance to climate is its effect on plant growth.’
Hear Hear !
Does anyone know when the homogenisation process took place in Bathurst?
Egg
The homogenisation started with the ‘High Quality Climate site networks’ but I’m not sure when that was. It’s now called’ Australian climate change site networks’ and mirrors the ACORN-SAT daily data site.
ACORN was first introduced publicly in early 2012.
ACC site networks here at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/hqsites/
ACORN
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/#tabs=Data-and-network
Bathurst would have been part of the original HQ data site but it is no longer available on the BoM website. It use to include more stations than ACORN and, if I remember correctly, only gave monthly and yearly means.
I don’t know if that helps to answer your question. Someone more knowledgeable than me may be able to add more.
… and any “learning” going on is going to have to be stopped as it’s likely to interfere with “educating” the next generation to accept the practice of adjusting reality to fit the story because the government “says it needs to be fixed.” Thank you Jennifer for keeping them honest.
p.s. I’m really interested in how you are going to write technical papers on diatoms. It probably makes them really hard to read but I would love to write a copy of a technical analysis I’m just finishing up on a diatom or two just so the Sales guys and the client can have as much trouble reading it as I had trying to figure out what they actually wanted to know.</sarc>
Thanks Ian, that’s perfect.
Around six years ago I was doing a Communications course at Bathurst TAFE and decided to do a story on BoM’s local temps to prove to my class mates that global warming was unreal.
On the stats at the time it appeared that temperatures had not risen so I went to the Ag station to get a quote from senior staff, but they managed to avoid me.
Not that a quote would have been of any use in convincing my classmates that they had been conned, so I showed them an image of a blank sun, but was still unable to convince them that global cooling was coming.
Hey Ian,
It all started with Simon Torok’s PhD. And the paper published following that by Torok and Nicholls… available here… http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/1996/torok.pdf
Dear Egg,
It would be very useful to me if you went to the jail, rather than the ag station. Could you find out if they have historical information about how they recorded temperatures at the jail. Indeed Bathurst jail has one of the longest temperature records for anywhere in NSW… but we don’t know where they kept the thermometers in the early years… when a Stevenson screen was installed and more…
Love your work I have also recorded BOM blatantly taking temperature records from new sites and applying them to traditional sites… In this E.g. Canberra Airport…. I pdféd it… they claimed a new record… I claim they cherry picked from new temperature locations from either Belconnon, Tuggernong or Civic…. It certainly was not from Canberra airport the traditional Canberra location.,…. Also in this inbstance they get a “urban heat iland” effect. They have deliberately followed a policy of urban consolidation and what do you get…
http://www.google.com.au/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cleanairpartnership.org%2Ffiles%2Furbanheatisland.jpg&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cleanairpartnership.org%2FC3Ontario&h=885&w=1640&tbnid=AObcWZfPiJrC6M%3A&zoom=1&docid=yZKPHcFj4TVn2M&ei=y5YnVJTyJIyC8gWG14C4Bw&tbm=isch&client=firefox-a&ved=0CCcQMygKMAo&iact=rc&uact=3&dur=350&page=1&start=0&ndsp=29
For the record the global hydrological cycle is 18 x 11 or the Moon and the sun or about 204 years. So the great drought of 1997- 2007 fits the federation drought profile. There may have very well been another drought about 1800 but Europeans did not cross the Blue Mountains until 1815 so they would have had very little idea but things were tough to begin with eh… Then you have to look at the serbian dude Milutin Milanković; locked up in WWI who worked out planetary weather patterns and the cycle of ice ages for kicks… one hell of a brilliant man… it took 100 years for science to accept his wisdom.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milutin_Milankovi%C4%87#Awards_and_honors
I’ll have a look.
Hi Ken Ring,
To me, looking more and more like food ownership.
When you get BOM telling the Water Dept people, how much food Debbie can grow, ( to be simple ).
I know the Water man and the BOM man , reckon, in their limited experience, that they are saving OZ and the world.
They are not evil , or bad, but is it actually part of the Agenda 21 ? They are hated, but just used ?
Thanks, Jen.
It appears the homogenization of records started in 1996 which is around the time of the introduction of the AWS roll-out. If this is correct, it would have been a good opportunity for the process to be undertaken due to station replacement/move, etc. So all previous records for each station would need to be adjusted to take into account for the change to AWS.
To paraphrase an old economic quote;
If you torture the figures for long enough, they will confess to anything.
On the question of Stevenson Screens in Australia, the issue was first mooted in the Intercolonial Meteorological Conference held in Sydney in 1879 and Melbourne in 1881.
Old Bathurst Gaol may have had a Stevenson Screen installed but I doubt it.
How did they get the raw data?
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/4174
This is an old story from Crikey.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2008/12/10/temperatures-rising-thanks-to-the-bureau-of-meteorology/?wpmp_switcher=mobile
Searching for Bx Gaol pics, chatted to the old ladies at the local Historical Society, but have not spotted a Stevenson Screen yet.
‘The Stevenson screen was first introduced to Australia in the 1880s and was installed everywhere, with a few exceptions, by 1910.’
‘The data I have for Bathurst is for Bathurst Ag not the Goal, I am aware of some of the incorrectly exposed readings at the Goal. I downloaded the data from the BOM’s FTP site around 3-4 years ago I think. It was from a part of their website that listed their most reliable and accurate long term stations for climate analysis.
‘Unfortunately I have never been able to find that part of their website since. I susspect they closed it down since normaly they ask for fees to gain this sort of data. I am not sure how long the website was open.’
BoM99 Weatherzone 2008
Blair Trewin (BoM) is probably our best bet to discover all we need to know about the 19th century Bathurst gaol weather archive.
‘The thing which is a bit different for Bathurst Ag is that I digitised the max/min temps for 1909-65 from there myself when I was doing my PhD (but these have never gone into the Bureau database), so the 1939 observations are on my old Melbourne Uni web page.’
From other reading it does appear that Stevenson Screens were in fact widespread in the 1880s.
egg, much thanks for following this up. it would mean a lot to me if we could find out more about placement of thermometers in that gaol.
So Jennifer , Do you have as much passion detecting fraud in studies that support your veiw ?
Not that MOB was ever commiting fraud you just had to convince lay people it looked sussed , as someone who is apparently educated , I would of thought you would included ACTUAL meteorologists , because anyone of them would of told you this is good practised
Dr Robert Carter , (who is also a climate skeptic) and I beleive you have met
was Co- author of a gem of study where they removed the overall trend on a graph , then concluded “LOOK NO OVER ALL TREND ON THE GRAPH !!”
This would have been fine if they were examining the ENSO index
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JD012960/abstract
In fact a curious inversely proportional relationship developed where the less you knew the more you beleived it ,
Plus I have a question Does the B Macfie Family Foundation , receive any funds from the Heartland institute ??
The reason i ask is this would seem to indicate a trend of people receiving funds from this heartland institute making allegations against national weather organisations
NZCC Received 25,000 from heartland inst. in 2007 , 2010 this happens
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/09/nz_high_court_dismisses_skeptic_case/
I sencerely hope you allegations against MOB are sincere , Its just it doesn’t SEEM SO , It Seems your using public ignorance (uninformed in statistical analysus)
, to your advantage to advance your “Unpopular Veiws”
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/ho/20140905.shtml
I personally would of been atleast familiar with Best Practise In Meteorological world BEFORE being sensationalist .
I’ll keep looking.
Dear Cornelius,
CORRECTION :
Professor Robert Carter, your quote “(who is also a climate skeptic)” and, who as you obviously are unaware, unfortunately passed away during this year, was very much the opposite.
Professor Carter served as an expert witness on climate change with parliamentary committees and meetings in Australia, New Zealand, Sweden and the U.S.A. He was a leading scientific witness in the London High Court case that identified nine major errors in Al Gore’s film, An Inconvenient Truth.
This also led to commissioning of a documentary by the BBC and circulated to public schools correcting those assumptions by Gore.
Your suggestion is as disingenuous as the term “Climate Change Denier”, is to those scientists, and there are literally tens of thousands of them throughout the world who have a differing opinion to those of the insidious “census”.
The simple truth for your benefit and of others, the question is not of “Climate Change”, but of a “Global Warming” of anthropogenic cause. The shift away from the term “Global Warming” to that of “Climate Change” during the early and mid years of the 2000’s became a matter of convenience when the IPCC realised temperatures weren’t trending as they predicted.
*****
If I’m reading this comment correctly Lindsay is suggesting that Bob Carter passed away. No. He is very much alive. Spoke to him on the phone just yesterday!
That is incredibly good news, I was sure that I had seen an obit in the Sydney Morning Herald several weeks ago!
I sincerely hope skeptic organisations and individuals are receiving funding. They can take it from Heartland or anyone who’s legal. I also hope they continue to direct criticism against national weather organisations and all those with power and huge resources whose performance is questionable.
That’s kind of the whole point, duh.
Thanks again for your efforts, Jen.
Dear Jennifer,
Regarding the on-going exposure of corruption of climate data in Australia, Steve Goddard has a very interesting post comparing surface data from large cities in Australia with the satellite data in the same grid box.
He shows a warming trend for the surface data (before homogenisation), ascribes it to UHI and then compares the satellite data.
It appears to me to be a very good way to demonstrate the discrepancy.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/10/13/satellites-show-melbourne-cooling-for-18-years/#comment-439811
What do you, Ken Stewart and Jo Nova think of that approach?
(I posted something on their sites too).
Thank , your work is much appreciated, and best wishes, Keith
Thanks Keith. Almost didn’t find this note. Best to post such information with queries at the most recent ‘Open Thread’…
Steve has started looking at the satellite record perhaps in response to Neville Nicholls post last week at The Conversation… in which Nicholls suggests the UAH satellite record shows warming… http://theconversation.com/an-independent-inquiry-into-the-bureau-of-meteorology-bring-it-on-32692
I am not across the detail of the satellite record. I’m following Steve’s postings and have suggested he bring this information together for an article that he at least submit to The Conversation.
I’ve been working on a separate response to The Conversation focused on ACORN-SAT