120 Responses to Open Thread

  1. jaycee August 8, 2014 at 9:44 am #

    ” She was hailed by Mark Kenny, a Liberal voter, as ‘a Joan of Arc, come to judgment.’ “….Well, she certainly helped to get Putin to “arc-up” !

  2. Neville August 8, 2014 at 9:56 am #

    So JC how would you respond to the shooting down of a plane that killed hundreds of innocent people? These Russian rebels could only shoot down this plane with Russian technology, training and support. Do you ever think before you post here?

  3. jaycee August 8, 2014 at 10:30 am #

    I’ll respect the relatives of ALL innocent people who have suffered loss from the use by “insurgents” of “foreign technology” and let others who post on here who are suitable enlightened on the subject answer Neville’s accusatory remarks.

  4. handjive of climatefraud.inc August 8, 2014 at 12:11 pm #

    Putin is playing ‘silly buggers’ but, he is no silly bugger.
    This bear still has bite.
    . . .
    As the BoM claims pre-1910 climate data is “not worthy” …

    “Australia is a land “of droughts and flooding rains” because of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation. About a decade ago I showed that this phenomenon amplifies the climate variability everywhere it strikes, including Australia. Without El Niño events and La Niña events, we would have a more benign climate.”

    El Nino
    of droughts and flooding rains

    by Dr Neville Nicholls


    Governor Arthur Phillip wrote the following to the Colonial Secretary, the Right Honourable W. W. Grenville on 4 March 1791:

    “From June until the present time so little rain has fallen that most of the runs of water in the different parts of the harbour have been dried up for several months, and the run which supplies this settlement is greatly reduced, but still sufficient for all culinary purposes… I do not think it probable that so dry a season often occurs. Our crops of corn have suffered greatly from the dry weather.”
    Phillip was wrong.
    Dry years do occur often, and usually accompany El Niño events, as was the case in 1791.


    We have to start with the sun.
    The driving force of the climate is energy received from the sun.

    Quantum screened El Niño – The Boy Child on ABCTV on 16 October 1997.


  5. Larry Fields August 8, 2014 at 12:23 pm #

    Larry’s comment: On the last Open Thread, I posted a link to a short article about Gene Drives from reason.com. This Scientific American article goes into more detail about the nuts and bolts of this nascent technology. It should come as no surprise that ‘lowly’ bacteria have pioneered the first step of the process.

    “Gene Drives” and CRISPR Could Revolutionize Ecosystem Management

    By Kevin Esvelt, George Church and Jeantine Lunshof | July 17, 2014 |  

    A note from the authors: With this guest blog post we want to share the key features of an innovative method for the high-precision genome editing of wild populations that has been outlined by our team at the Wyss Institute, Harvard Medical School, and the Harvard School of Public Health. Our technical description of the proposed method was published today in eLife, while an accompanying essay on regulation and governance was published today in Science. We aim to introduce the technology – well in advance of any concrete implementation – in order to start a public conversation on how we might collectively explore ways to responsibly develop and use it for the betterment of humanity and the environment.

    Genome engineering technologies have revolutionized genetics, biotechnology, and medical research.  We may soon be able to alter not just domesticated species, but entire wild populations and ecosystems.  Why, when and how might we use these novel methods to reshape our environment?

    The story begins with a new technology that has made the precise editing of genes in many different organisms much easier than ever before.  The so-called “CRISPR” system naturally protects bacteria from viruses by storing fragments of viral DNA sequence and cutting any sequences that exactly match the fragment.  By changing the fragments and delivering the altered system into other organisms, we can cut any given gene.  If we also supply a DNA sequence that the cell can use to repair the damage, it will incorporate this new DNA, precisely editing the genome.  When performed in the cells that give rise to eggs or sperm, these changes will be inherited by future generations.

    You can read more here.

  6. DaveMyFace August 8, 2014 at 12:28 pm #

    Seems some Kangaroo Exporters aren’t too worried about the Russian Ban

    Macro Meats managing director Ray Borda says that after the last ban on supply to Russia in 2009, they are no longer reliant on that market

    Short interview here done about 3 hours ago on ABC Rural:

    Also seems the Saltwater Crocodile skin industry in NT has so much demand for 1st Grade skins. it seems to be untouched.

    The other agriculture industries reliant on Russia will suffer badly unfortunately.

  7. Debbie August 8, 2014 at 1:48 pm #

    Errrr Jaycee?
    No comment on the Guardian piece?
    After my recent travels. . .I think Emma & Greenpeace are focusing totally in the wrong place.
    Australia is way, waaaay ahead on these matters.
    We should be proud of our achievements.

  8. Neville August 8, 2014 at 2:27 pm #

    Thanks for that silly article from Emma Thompson JC. That just about sums up the mickey mouse pseudo science that we could expect from some of these drongo movie stars

    But here’s the latest 2014 world glacier study from Leclercq et al that tells the true story. World glaciers started to retreat after 1850 and the greatest retreat was in the early 20th and the retreat has slowed since 1950. Just like so many recent SL studies that show a slowing of SLR after 1950.


  9. jaycee August 8, 2014 at 2:28 pm #

    Deb’…I thought I’d let it stand or fall on it’s own merit!….BTW. where did you go to on your travels, if you don’t mind me asking…any little snippets of info?…some “local colour” perhaps?

  10. jaycee August 8, 2014 at 2:30 pm #

    ” Thanks for that silly article from Emma Thompson JC…”

    My pleasure, Neville…my pleasure!

  11. Neville August 8, 2014 at 2:46 pm #

    Here’s the facts about Arctic sea ice, Antarctic sea ice and global sea ice. They can tell all the lies they like but they’ll be found out sooner or later.


  12. handjive of climatefraud.inc August 8, 2014 at 2:50 pm #

    jaycee, If emma wasn’t peak stupid …

    Sea Women plan 3,000km Northwest Passage snorkel relay
    ‘It will be very black, so we are not gonna see much,’ says expedition leader Susan R. Eaton.
    Last summer, Eaton was among a group of adventure tourists plucked from remote north Baffin Island by helicopter after the ice pan she was camping on unexpectedly broke away from land and began to drift away.
    The rescue cost the Canadian Military $2.7 million, the National Post later reported.

    That hasn’t deterred Eaton.”


    But … the blog from Northwest Passage 2014, where they are attempting (& waiting) to get through the “ice free arctic” this summer, They seem very angry. It is all in upper key:

    “Sea Women” To Attempt Arctic Snorkel Relay – OMG – You got to be kidding – Why not eat your boots for a PR stunt?


    . . .
    Wouldn’t going to the arctic in winter, showing the doomsday effects of Apocalyptic Global Warming be more convincing?
    Any idiot knows snow/ice melts in summer.

  13. jaycee August 8, 2014 at 3:18 pm #

    Aww!..handjive’…I can’t stay mad at them…

  14. Neville August 8, 2014 at 3:42 pm #

    Poor old JC will just never ever wake up. But we have been having a number of record breaking low temps over SE OZ over the last week.
    For example Mildura had 7 frosts in a row after a record breaking week for August. That’s a record for the airport stn since 1946, but there was one colder temp from the old PO records in 1904.
    Starting on saturday 2nd August the previous record was equalled every morning until Monday morning and then a new record was set on Tuesday morning 5th August. The record is now minus 3.1c for August and is the coldest temp recorded for this month in the last 110 years.
    But I understand Adelaide and Melbourne had very low temps during this past week and many other cities/towns as well. I think Adelaide also set a new cold record in the past week.
    Amazing how blocking high pressure systems can cause record low temps in winter and heatwaves in summer.

  15. jaycee August 8, 2014 at 4:50 pm #

    Getting back to Jennifer’s heading about Russia…I ponder on this fad of getting stuck into Putin….is it selective amnesia, or are they just plain thick!…If one was to reflect on a bit of history, one would be inclined to consider Putin’s stance against the western powers justified in the face of their training, funding and supplying arms and logistics to the Mujaheddin against the Soviet bloc under one aspiring chappy named “Osama Bin Laden” !….That! , as they say..went well.

  16. Neville August 8, 2014 at 4:55 pm #

    A very good post dealing with the unbelievably ignorant people and MSM who tell heaps of porkies as well. Obama and Kerry feature here and must be an embarrassment to any reasonable American. Plenty of factual data and graphs to prove the point.


  17. toorightmate August 8, 2014 at 4:59 pm #

    We do not like Mr Putin, BUT he sure plays chess better than anyone else on this side of the old Iron Curtain.
    I do not believe that the Ruskies missing out on a bit of roo meat will be nearly as serious as Europe missing out on a whole lot of gas – particularly with winter just around the corner.

  18. cohenite August 8, 2014 at 6:52 pm #

    emma bloody Thompson. What is with people who pull faces for a living wanting a cause to demonstrate they aren’t empty vessels.

    I think I might compile the 10 most stupid things said by ‘actors’ about AGW. It’ll be a tough competition.

  19. jaycee August 8, 2014 at 6:56 pm #

    Cohenite…How about this “airhead ham-actor”….CO2. is a weightless, odourless, colourless gas!”

  20. jaycee August 8, 2014 at 7:08 pm #

    And now we got Abbott “toughing” Russia…..tell me truly…did any of you people here actually vote for this guy?

  21. Debbie August 8, 2014 at 7:33 pm #

    Only the people in Abbot’s electorate can vote for Abbot.
    I vote according to policy. . . not for a particular politician.

  22. jaycee August 8, 2014 at 8:04 pm #

    Listen up!…on 7.30 SA. ABC. there is something about the locks on the Murray….may be worth a watch….on in about five minutes, I’d say!

  23. spangled drongo August 8, 2014 at 8:35 pm #

    Just got back from my annual Sandy Straits cruise in sailing dinghy “Gert by Sea” and was quite amazed to see there two fur seals rolling on their backs and waving flippers at me. These very friendly little animals have suddenly started arriving in that NOTW apparently.


    The other day we had a Fairy Penguin at Tweed Heads and now fur seals in Sandy Straits.


    Must be just another side of Gorebul Warming we don’t understand.

  24. jennifer August 8, 2014 at 9:18 pm #

    Spangled, Great to know your back safely. And what about a picture of that waving fur seal?

  25. spangled drongo August 8, 2014 at 10:06 pm #

    Jen, I’ve emailed a couple of the blokes who were there with me to see if they have a decent pic. If so, I’ll send it.

  26. gavin August 9, 2014 at 7:16 am #

    SD; Don’t be distracted by an apparent cooling in your sailing spots. Given it’s a bit warmer east of Bass Strait at the moment, we should expect some wandering fur seals to be hugging the tiny inshore cool spots off SEQ.


  27. spangled drongo August 9, 2014 at 7:59 am #

    Thanks for that link gav, but if you’re familiar with the southerly set [AKA East Aust Current] you will know that there have forever been shifting warm and cold patches along the east coast depending on which way the wind is blowing, gyres etc.

    Prior to sat nav you had to carry a thermometer to know if you were in the set and the temperature change [+/-] told you which way the set was running.

    Generally it flows [sets] against the wind and the prevailing southerlies create the south-flowing warm water. But it also goes into reverse regularly.

    A little current makes a huge difference to the performance of the feeble efforts of wind energy.

    While the EAC has been doing this throughout known history and carrying warm water species southward, fur seals, OTOH, have always been firmly ensconced in much higher latitudes.

    They just don’t swim quickly enough to take advantage of any cool patches that may occur in Qld as a result of the EAC.

    Either there is a general overall cooling or [horreurs] animals can cope with things being a bit warmer awa cooler.

  28. jaycee August 9, 2014 at 8:05 am #

    Well, that 7.30 local on the locks was little more than a “soft sell” for tourism and local history…but good luck to them..it’s a good story.

  29. Neville August 9, 2014 at 8:21 am #

    SP animals can adapt very quickly to warmer and cooler temps. The last 4 IG’s before the Holocene were much warmer than our present day temps.
    Polar bears were once stranded brown bears that adapted very quickly to much colder conditions and their numbers have greatly increased since 1950. Even if the planet was to warm to the higher temps of the previous 500,000 years and even the Holocene climate optimum polar bears would still easily adapt and thrive.

  30. Neville August 9, 2014 at 8:23 am #

    Sorry Spangled, I meant SD above.

  31. Neville August 9, 2014 at 8:47 am #

    I’ve just been re-reading the Bob Carter et al book “Taxing Air.” He states on page 200 that Australia and our EEZ territory absorb about 20 times the co2 we emit every year.
    And that doesn’t include our Antarctic claims. The Japanese satellite observations back up these findings that the OZ land mass is one of the largest land co2 sinks on the planet.
    Abbott should immediately demand compensation for the great job OZ is doing absorbing all that co2. In fact I’ve told a few people about this and they just give me a blank stare and some silly warmists have become very hostile and called me a BS artist. But anyway you have to find your fun where you can.

  32. Neville August 9, 2014 at 9:46 am #

    Dr Chris Schluchter’s findings on Glacier retreat thousands of years ago just confirms that our so called slight modern warming is very normal and has happened many times in the past few thousand years.
    In fact glacier retreat and advance has happened many times during the Holocene and tree lines were found at much higher elevations thousands of years ago during much warmer periods than today.


  33. jaycee August 9, 2014 at 9:59 am #


    There could be a speaking engagement opportunity for an optimistic denier in the west of NSW / Qld….

  34. Debbie August 9, 2014 at 10:21 am #

    Contrary to popular opinion. . .Native fauna & flora is far more opportunistic about ‘habitat’ than us humans give them credit for.
    They do indeed seem to possess a much better instinctual understanding of such things like ocean currents, wind, slip streams & impending climate/weather events etc.
    Our natives are particularly tough & resilient & migratory . . .just as well. . .most of our climate is highly variable.

  35. Debbie August 9, 2014 at 10:31 am #

    Pity that BoM claimed an 80% probability of ‘wetter than average’ winter/spring 2013 for these areas eh Jaycee?
    No one. . .including BoM. was prepared for the resultant severe seasonal drought. . .that is indeed still persisting in some areas.
    Who/what do you think is optimistically denying who/what about who/what?

  36. egg August 9, 2014 at 10:41 am #

    ‘British scientists are stranded after their Antarctic base lost power in the depths of winter as temperatures plummeted to a record low of minus 55C.’

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2719796/British-scientists-stranded-freezing-Antarctic-research-station-power-failed-temperatures-hit-record-low-minus-55C.html#ixzz39qp9rlmz
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  37. Neville August 9, 2014 at 10:45 am #

    Here’s the BOM rainfall for NSW and trend. http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=nsw&season=0112&ave_yr=T

    Here’s the BOM rainfall and trend for QLD http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=qld&season=0112&ave_yr=T

    Here’s the BOM rainfall and trend for SA . http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=sa&season=0112&ave_yr=T

    But tell us JC how you could fix your problem? We know that OZ emits just 0.4 GT of co2 per year but absorbs at least 8 GT per year so what more do you want.

  38. Neville August 9, 2014 at 11:07 am #

    Of course since that post ( date March) from JC much of lower NSW and Victoria have had the best Autumn break in at least 30 years.
    It’s a worry that some of the experts now think we could be fighting this mad religious cult for the next hundred years.


  39. spangled drongo August 9, 2014 at 11:30 am #

    “It’s a worry that some of the experts now think we could be fighting this mad religious cult for the next hundred years.”

    Wot, Nev, ya mean Islam as well as CAGW?

  40. Debbie August 9, 2014 at 1:55 pm #

    Dunno about fighting.
    Some HUMILITY would perhaps be a good idea however 🙂
    BoM does not OWN the weather/climate. . . nobody does.
    There will be no one happier than us farmers when seasonal forecasting skills improve. . .& we don’t care WHO/WHAT ends up cracking that puzzle. . .they will be worth every cent.

  41. egg August 9, 2014 at 1:56 pm #

    Thanks for those trends Neville, I’ll take them away.

  42. Neville August 9, 2014 at 2:16 pm #

    Well Spangled they both include a mad sort of totalitarian belief, but I’ll concede that we haven’t seen any mad warmists holding up severed heads and laughing about it for the cameras.

    BTW this MacDonald et al study shows that forests once grew up to the Arctic coastline in the earlier Holocene. Temps then are estimated to have been up to 7c higher than today. The trees retreated after temps dropped about 4,000 to 3,000 years ago. Just more proof of a much warmer earlier holocene and a much warmer Arctic than today.


    Here is the study’s abstract————-


    Radiocarbon-dated macrofossils are used to document Holocene treeline history across northern Russia (including Siberia). Boreal forest development in this region commenced by 10,000 yr B.P. Over most of Russia, forest advanced to or near the current arctic coastline between 9000 and 7000 yr B.P. and retreated to its present position by between 4000 and 3000 yr B.P. Forest establishment and retreat was roughly synchronous across most of northern Russia. Treeline advance on the Kola Peninsula, however, appears to have occurred later than in other regions. During the period of maximum forest extension, the mean July temperatures along the northern coastline of Russia may have been 2.5° to 7.0°C warmer than modern. The development of forest and expansion of treeline likely reflects a number of complimentary environmental conditions, including heightened summer insolation, the demise of Eurasian ice sheets, reduced sea-ice cover, greater continentality with eustatically lower sea level, and extreme Arctic penetration of warm North Atlantic waters. The late Holocene retreat of Eurasian treeline coincides with declining summer insolation, cooling arctic waters, and neoglaciation.

  43. Malcolm Hill August 9, 2014 at 2:33 pm #

    In today’s Advertiser the Clean Energy Council announced that the wind farms were working overtime during July and produced 43% of SA,s power needs.

    That sounds like complete rubbish to me but asking them for their data would only result in a snow job as they are an renewables vested interest lobby group.

    Is there any independent way of getting a fix on what the real story is ……where is Tony from Oz when you need him?

  44. Neville August 9, 2014 at 2:39 pm #

    A top criminal defence lawyer says that Gillard has questions to answer. Big surprise NOT. I’d like Cohers to offer an opinion if he comes by.


  45. Neville August 9, 2014 at 2:51 pm #

    It seems that el nino events were just as strong and as frequent 10,000 years ago. Just more NATURAL warming and cooling for the duration of the Holocene. Another big surprise, NOT.


  46. Neville August 9, 2014 at 2:57 pm #

    Malcolm you could try asking Tony from OZ an O/T question at Jo Nova’s anytime. I don’t think Jo would mind. But I’m sure you are right about the 43% nonsense. The last week would have been a bummer with all the still days and cold frosty nights. Certainly not much wind generation under those conditions.

  47. Neville August 9, 2014 at 3:48 pm #

    This Houston et al 2011 SL study looked at USA tide gauges and global data and found small deceleration in both until 2100. So where is the AGW impact to be found.


  48. Johnathan Wilkes August 9, 2014 at 4:20 pm #

    Tony has his own website, or participating in one anyway, find it On Jo’s site

  49. spangled drongo August 9, 2014 at 5:41 pm #

    Just keepin gav up to date here:

    Gav, please point to any visible SLR anywhere.

  50. egg August 9, 2014 at 6:07 pm #

    ENSO was presumed to be non-existent 6000 to 8000 years ago, but new evidence pours cold water on that theory.


  51. jaycee August 9, 2014 at 6:15 pm #

    ” A top criminal defence lawyer says that Gillard has questions to answer…” So..why doesn’t he just print them out in the article…I believe if you look down a tad it will have a rider saying that Gillard isn’t being accused of anything….(crawl, crawl)..but…..
    Yeah!…But what?…Say!…How’s the Pauline Hanson slush fund investigation going?…anybody got any info on that?…just askin’…

  52. Johnathan Wilkes August 9, 2014 at 7:48 pm #

    in case you are still looking for Tony, here is where he resides


  53. hunter August 9, 2014 at 7:49 pm #

    Jennifer, the new format of your blog is really nice. It is fresh and easily accessible.

  54. egg August 9, 2014 at 9:49 pm #

    ‘The distribution of solar activity is clearly bi-modal, implying the existence of distinct modes of activity. The main regular activity mode corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers ≈ 20 and 67.

    ‘The existence of a separate Grand minimum mode with reduced solar activity, which cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode, is confirmed at a high confidence level.

    ‘The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion.

    ‘The Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes – a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually active Sun.

    ‘These results provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth’s climate.’

    Usoskin et al

  55. Ian Thomson August 10, 2014 at 10:47 am #

    Back to the Russians,
    ” the rebels couldn’t have done it without Russian equipment and training. ”
    Can’t wait for the war against Saudi Arabia, for supplying ISIS. NATO, (via Britain) for arming Boko Haram. USA for Reagan CREATING Al Qaeda, by executive order. USA for arming and training the Taliban, to fight Russians (again).
    USA for arming the genocidal Nazis, (who used to work for Hitler) , in Ukraine.
    Oh, and Australia , for arming and training the Indonesian troops , who post themselves on Facey, beside dead “trophy” Papuans.
    Just wondering, if a bunch of Nazis came charging into Australian farmland, ordered everyone to speak a foreign language under pain of death, how we would take it.
    If they sent fighter bombers in , in the radar shadow of passenger planes, maybe we would even try to defend ourselves.

    On a more peaceful note, I see the ABC is again pleading with Oz farmers to ‘believe ‘ in the religion.



  56. Ian Thomson August 10, 2014 at 10:51 am #

    Further to my above comment on Ukraine, it is widely ignored that many of those Russian speakers are WAR VETERANS . They are well trained, but poorly armed. Some in the pictures are holding in a very professional manner,
    that well known assault weapon, the .22 rifle.

  57. Ian Thomson August 10, 2014 at 10:52 am #

    The big kick in the guts will be the livestock exporters here. Dairy Heifers etc.

  58. TonyfromOz August 10, 2014 at 11:15 am #

    Malcolm Hill asked a question further up about how wind plants in South Australia were operating overtime in July and supplied 43% of the State’s electrical power.

    It’s an easy thing to say, and not so easy to explain correctly, and to show you, I want to pick two days in isolation to show you something here.

    The first day is a good day for wind power in the State, and that’s the 29th July and that can be seen at this link.


    Now, see the second graph down from the top. Under that is the list of Wind plants. See the check boxes alongside the names of the plants. Untick all the boxes on the left side for the States of NSW, Vic, and Tas, and then at the right, untick the ‘All’ box.

    So now, the only wind plants showing on the graph are for South Australia.

    The total Nameplate for all these plants is 1329MW, and as you can see wind power supplied a fairly constant 1100MW across virtually the whole day, a really good day for wind power.

    Scroll down to the third graph and untick all boxes except SA. That shows the total power consumed in the State across those 24 hours, a typical Winter load curve, this for a working day Tuesday, averaging around 1500MW across the day, but again note the dips and rises. Anything above what wind was supplying (for that day around 1100MW) other plants need to be supplying power. Anything below what wind was generating means that the excess wind power is just being dumped, as there is no use for it, but hey, this is a pretty rare sight for that to be happening.

    Now, having shown you a good day, let’s look at a not so good day, the 14th July, a work day Monday, and those graphs are at this link.


    Again, same exercise, untick all wind plant boxes except for SA and untick the ‘All’ box, and for the third graph untick all boxes except for SA.

    Note how wind power drops dramatically around 8AM and then doesn’t come (partly) good until around 9PM, and this is the period of peak power consumption, with wind averaging barely three to five percent of what the State is consuming during those designated peak hours.

    Okay then, to say that wind is supplying 43% of the State’s overall requirement is an arbitrary statement, because it is so variable. There will be the odd day when it is delivering well, and more days when it is not, but the actual periods of delivery are not stable as they would be with another power source, which is either supplying its maximum or turned off.

    The problem here is that instead of a traditional plant knowing its hours of operation set in stone, now they are set at the whim of wind plants, and the grid controller gets on the blower and says he needs your plant on line now, well ten minutes ago in fact. So now, these plants are turning on and off on an irregular basis, costing more money in operating costs as opposed to regular time of operation, hence the cost of electrical power in South Australia is the most expensive in the Country, because of the variability of wind power, as shown at this link for the Month of July


    So, while that 43% figure is arbitrary, you have times when wind is supplying 120% of the State’s requirement, like around 4AM on that big day, when everyone is tucked up in bed, but the State still has to purchase all that power even though 20% of it is just dumped as unused, there are many more times when wind is only supplying 4%, on that bad day, when it is actually needed the most.

    I hope this helps in the form of an explanation.

    Oh, and Jennifer, nice new format.


  59. Robert August 10, 2014 at 1:08 pm #

    Thanks Tony. I wonder just how much coal is wasted by all the on-off to support wind and solar. I also wonder how much coal is saved by the BoA technology used in Germany in newer lignite plants. There’s a strong suspicion that the Germans are wasting coal to maintain the illusion of renewables, and that BoA is just an improvement to a bad idea.

  60. Beth Cooper August 10, 2014 at 4:55 pm #

    In my 3rd Edition of Serf Under -ground Journal I link to Tony from Oz
    ‘The Limitations of Renewable Power’ on the engineering problems of
    large wind towers in Esperance, WA, the kind of tower proliferating
    around the world. Also link to and include extracts of a 2012 study,
    ‘Renewables or Nuclear Electricity for Australia – the Costs’ by Peter
    Lang a geologist who has worked on a range of energy projects
    world wide..


  61. Malcolm Hill August 10, 2014 at 8:11 pm #

    Thanks Tony.
    I,ll make use of that tool.
    As for the 43% , it is pretty meaningless as a measure if much of the energy is available at night, and has no productive utility.

    Their claims are therefore misleading.

  62. Neville August 11, 2014 at 8:39 am #

    How does the west respond to these mad Moslem extremists? Obama should have been bombing targets at every opportunity weeks ago, but at least the latest bombing and supplies of food and water may help to save some of the trapped minorities.

    But I’ve just heard that the minority trapped on the mountain in Iraq have lost at least 500 innocent people in the most hideous way and even the ABC reports that some were buried alive.
    Bolt has a post this morning showing a young Aussie child holding up a severed head and the photo was taken and posted by his proud father. Many of his mates in Sydney are excited by all this and wish they could join him. But their passports have been confiscated. Unbelievable horrors and similar to all the vile totalitarian regimes of the past century. Like the Nazis, Mao’s China , Pol Pot and the worst of the communist atrocities of Stalin’s dictatorship.


  63. hunter August 11, 2014 at 9:27 pm #

    Sorry, but America is taking a powder while our President continues revealing himself to be even more on a nincompoop than his critics could have imagined.

  64. Toby August 12, 2014 at 8:05 pm #

    considering the abuse the USA gets for so much of its foreign policy, you can hardly blame them for being slow out of the gate. Everybody in the Middle East seems to hate them and even where muslim kills muslim ( ie most of the crazy ME) they all seem to hate america even more than they hate each other.

    Time to do a genghis khan, put up the white tent, give them a day to surrender ( all live if they stop killing, sending rockets etc), put up the red tent (if they surrender women and children live) on the third day kill the bloody lot.

    HARSH? VERY!! BUT effective YES…..I dont really want that done, most of them cant be blamed for their stupid religion or their evil leaders and I dont really think it would solve their problems. BUT gee if i was Israel it would be hard not use that as a policy…surely you can only push people so far that actually are powerful without expecting a nasty consequence. And so far they have been very mild in their response even given the horrible headcount

    these nuts will bring us all down if we are not careful and it is time the UN showed some spine and started to show the tents!

  65. egg August 13, 2014 at 1:38 pm #

    Toby its important to keep things in perspective.


    To bring an end to the carnage we need to set up a Palestinian satellite state in north Western Australia.

    The irony is that the persecuted German jews (in the early 1930s) sought to do something similar, but were rebuffed by the Australian government.

  66. Toby August 13, 2014 at 6:57 pm #

    Very Funny Egg! Oh how lucky we would be to have a bunch of palestinians living in our midst, They would blend in perfectly with our values and customs. I am surprised I havent heard this discussed on abc radio in the morning by the highly impartial james carlton or pushed by the oh so lovely and sensible sarah hanson young

  67. Larry Fields August 14, 2014 at 4:37 am #

    Mark Steyn on Multiculturalism


    The last time I checked, political commentary was within the purview of this blog. And Mark Steyn is the wittiest political satirist of our time. Unfortunately, this 8-minute video will end before you’ve finished your popcorn.

  68. egg August 14, 2014 at 8:17 am #

    ‘They would blend in perfectly with our values and customs.’

    We would have to vet those coming, female genital mutilation will be banned, while heavy drinking will be encouraged.

  69. Toby August 14, 2014 at 9:06 am #

    Steyn is hilarious and I agree one of the worlds best commentators.

    Egg, now you are scaring me, I cant think of a more stupid idea than inviting these nuts into our country. Anybody who believes in a deity needs help in my opinion, but at least most of them dont go around killing people who disagree with their on version of madness. Islam is NOT a religion of peace and we really should be having a public discussion about how many we let in. If you are prepared to live under their control and rules and subjugate yourself to a prophet that was a pedophile and mass murderer, then it is peaceful. I dont support anything or any one who is totalitarian and Islam is completely totalitarian.

    Religion is used to control people via fear and is the first and worst sort of politics in my opinion.

    Australia is one of the few countries where multiculturalism seems to work, an islamic state …for that is what they would want, is NOT something we deserve thrust on our generous population.

    I do hope you have been jesting about this?!

  70. Larry Fields August 14, 2014 at 1:29 pm #

    egg August 14, 2014 at 8:17 am #
    “‘They would blend in perfectly with our values and customs.’”
    We would have to vet those coming, female genital mutilation will be banned, while heavy drinking will be encouraged.

    One of Steyn’s main points is that industrial strength Multiculturalism is an oxymoron.

    As a wimpy Multiculturalist, I labour to be tolerant of colourful British spelling when I visit here. I’m even tolerant of their warm, flat beer — as long as I don’t have to drink it. These small cultural differences do not conflict with my moral compass.

    Extreme Cultural Relativism is a different ball of wax. FGM? ‘Honor’ killings? Mass beheadings? Who are we to judge? Yeah, right.

    But that’s the Prime Directive of the Cultural Relativist subculture.

    Ironically, extreme Multiculturalists are very judgmental about any *parent* culture that condemns human rights abuses in non-Western countries. That’s a truly bizarre mixture of tolerance and intolerance. To any dyslexic Multiculturalists on this blog, I say: Put that in your smipe, and poke it.

    Part of the motivation for this rant is an ignorant comment I read on a Conservative/Libertarian board, which I no longer visit. The bloke in question felt that Germany should not have to apologize for the Holocaust forever.

    However there’s a fly in the ointment. Even after the horrors of WW2, history keeps repeating itself. To wit: the Rwanda Genocide, ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, and now the Islamo-Fascist group, ISIS. Those who ‘sanitize’ the painful lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.

    What percentage of adults in your country have never heard of the Armenian Genocide? I rest my case.

  71. egg August 14, 2014 at 3:56 pm #

    I hear you both and don’t need convincing that we are dealing with barbaric Medieval zealots, but most of the refugees would be seeking a peaceful existence.

    It would not be an Islamic state or even a Palestinian state, more like a growing agricultural settlement.

    Burqa wearers need not apply.

  72. Toby August 14, 2014 at 7:05 pm #

    In a perfect world Egg, but its not and I for one dont want any more muslims here.

    women are not the equal of men in their culture and i struggle to see many values similar to our own.

    It is only a matter of time until something terrible happens again in the west and as usual the western apologists will come out and blame us.

    islam is a religion of poverty, and poverty breeds hatred and a need for people to find a cause and gain a purpose.

    The UK has even granted some the right to use sharia law….and other countries are following suit as politicians pander to their electorates. parts of uk and france are now no go zones with signs warning the police will not enter….which zones are these i wonder………

    If we are not careful its only a matter of time here.

  73. egg August 14, 2014 at 7:43 pm #

    ‘If we are not careful its only a matter of time here.’

    The strategic reality is a hundred years war, unless we can figure a way to avoid it. My kibbutz idea is all I’ve got to offer.

    And a reminder to Larry, the Tamil Tigers also cut off heads and stuck them up around Colombo, which helps to explain why the end of that war was so brutal.

  74. Toby August 14, 2014 at 9:16 pm #

    It sure is a difficult problem and ideas do need to come from outside the box and be considered in polite ways…just like here! But your idea scares the hell out of me.

    none of it is black and white, from the tamils to the caliphates.

    if we can get the radical muslims to love their children more than they hate jews and westerners and alternative religions to their own, then we have a chance at peace….until then I dont want them in this country.

    perhaps education is a solution…something so many of these radicals do not want for exactly the reason it will help inform a change in their culture?

  75. egg August 14, 2014 at 9:35 pm #

    ‘until then I dont want them in this country.’

    I cannot argue with that, anyway here is what happened all those years ago.

    ‘Following the Evian Conference, the London-based Freeland League (founded in 1935) proposed the purchase of seven million acres in the East Kimberley region of Western Australia (encompassing the properties of Connor, Durack and Doherty) as a farming settlement for a potential 50 000 refugees from Nazism. The League envisaged that a vanguard party of 500 to 600 ‘pioneers’ would construct homes, a power station, irrigation works, etc, pending the arrival of the main body of colonists.

    ‘Dr Isaac Nachman Steinberg (1888–1957) was sent out from London in 1939 to investigate the scheme’s feasibility and to enlist governmental and communal endorsement. A skilled emissary, he stayed in Australia throughout the war and later wrote a book on his experience, Australia: The Unpromised Land.Steinberg won the support of churches, leading newspapers, many prominent political and public figures (including Western Australian Premier J C Willcock) and a number of Jewish leaders.

    ‘The project came to nothing in the end, however, primarily because of concerns that the settlers would drift inevitably and in large numbers to the cities. Forty-seven per cent of the public opposed the scheme in a 1944 opinion poll and, in July of that year, Prime Minister Curtin formally rejected the proposal. Curtin’s decision had bipartisan political support.’

    National Archives

  76. Toby August 14, 2014 at 10:07 pm #

    v interesting thx for that Egg! remarkable only 47 % opposed the scheme i would think but possibly it could have been a gd alternative to israel…although maybe that would have radicallsed more zionists?…hard to see them acting like hamas etc however.

    A very interesting proposition and i think it says a lot about the compassion and fairness of aussies back then to have even given it serious consideration? The world has always used the jews as a figure of hatred at various times, and some of it for undoubtedly good reasons ( ie monopolising education). Although their treatment was far worse than what they deserved …ie kicking out the money lenders from countries to absolve a countries/ kings debts

  77. egg August 15, 2014 at 7:18 am #

    ‘Although their treatment was far worse than what they deserved …’

    Mass murder was a bit extreme and unjustifiable.

    ‘ …remarkable only 47 % opposed the scheme…’

    Even though jews were still widely criticised in Australian society at the time, It was a humanitarian crisis and ordinary people would have put their prejudice behind them.

  78. Toby August 15, 2014 at 9:11 am #

    sorry Egg, i was not referring to the armenian genocide….that was of course awful and completely inexcusable and if you interpreted my comment that way and for anybody else who did, I apologise. I was merely trying to make the point that the Jews are no Angels themselves. Murder is never justifiable, IMHO.

  79. Toby August 15, 2014 at 10:46 am #

    further to ” I was merely trying to make the point that the Jews are no Angels themselves.”…in relation to how generous australians are to have only had a 47% vote against letting 50,000 jews live in oz.

  80. egg August 15, 2014 at 12:02 pm #

    I was thinking those 50,000 jews could have survived the war, but government didn’t like the idea of ‘block’ migration because they assumed the Kimberley Kibbutz people would eventually migrate to capital cities.

    That makes sense.

  81. Larry Fields August 15, 2014 at 12:20 pm #

    Toby August 15, 2014 at 9:11 am #
    “sorry Egg, i was not referring to the armenian genocide….”

    Toby, the Armenian Genocide had nothing to do with Jews. Traditionally, Armenians who have a religious persuasion are Christians.

    During World War I, the Ottoman Turks murdered more than 1 million Armenians. Some were forcibly marched off to concentration camps that had no food. Starving to death, are we? Oops, sorry about that.

    Some Armenians were even crucified.

    Understandably, Armenians have long memories. In contrast, ‘modern’ Turks are genocide Deniers.

    Also understandably, Armenians were glad to have become part of the old Soviet Union after World War I. The last time I checked, there were still Russian troops stationed in post-USSR Armenia. Coincidentally, there have been no more Turkic genocides directed against Armenians.

  82. Moderator Ray August 15, 2014 at 1:35 pm #

    Hey guys, I know this is an open thread, but Jennifer’s blog is about scientific issues, not past or present genocides. Please stop poking your noses into these types of dry gully.

  83. egg August 15, 2014 at 3:29 pm #

    Thanx Mod

    ‘The Met Office, the Committee on Climate Change and the overwhelming majority of the scientific community all tell us that last winter’s floods are consistent with the projected consequences of climate change.

    ‘We know that the climate is changing. We know that human activity is contributing to that change. I think that this is the biggest challenge facing the world today.

    ‘The stability of our climate system provides the basic underpinning for all human life and animal life and plant life. Small shifts in global temperature will cause massive impacts for millions of people.

    ‘This isn’t speculation or the sci-fi musings of an imaginative, bestselling author. It is solid, established scientific fact, accepted by 97% of the scientists who study our climate systems.’

    The UK Shadow Environment Secretary Maria Eagle

  84. Larry Fields August 15, 2014 at 5:02 pm #

    It’s shameless self-promotion time again.


    by Larry Fields

    I really need to update this article, to include Gene Drives, mentioned earlier in this thread.

    The evolution of antibiotic-resistant bacteria is not a variant of Murphy’s Law. We can apply the principles of Natural Selection to the long-term management of Superbugs, as part of a long-term, multi-pronged strategy. However compliance is an issue.

    And no, I’m not a member of the biology old boys’ club. In this case, that’s an advantage. Instead, my educational background is in analytical chemistry. Paradigm shift, anyone?

    Read all about it here.

  85. egg August 15, 2014 at 5:11 pm #

    Fish have returned, El Nino is finished.


  86. egg August 15, 2014 at 5:28 pm #

    ‘At the online nyheter24, Janssen comments that climate science resembles more a religion, noting that even the Swedish Church now devotes more time to activities on climate alarm than Christian preaching. He writes, “The climate debate in Sweden has gone awry and is anything but scientific.”

    – See more at:


  87. Neville August 15, 2014 at 5:59 pm #

    It looks like Mann has painted himself into a corner and Steyn will not let him budge. Very interesting.


  88. Neville August 15, 2014 at 6:54 pm #

    If this isn’t a mad religious cult full of people with a mental illness, then what is?


  89. egg August 15, 2014 at 7:15 pm #

    Worrall is running hot at Watts, following a cool line.


  90. Neville August 15, 2014 at 7:42 pm #

    Mark Steyn writes about his “new best friends,” like the Washington Post, ACLU, Los Angeles Times etc. He’s the best wordsmith on the planet and a very funny man. And I guess it helps if you’re highly intelligent as well.


  91. Neville August 16, 2014 at 8:50 am #

    A Danish ship has hit a wind turbine near Morcambe bay UK. It is spilling oil but is still able move under its own power. Just one more hazard caused by these stupid bloody turbines. Incredible to think that these absurd bird mincers are now causing problems with shipping as well.


  92. spangled drongo August 16, 2014 at 9:39 am #

    After being repeatedly told for the last week that we were in for a deluge of up to 100 mm we finally got some rain —1 mm.

    Does this mean that BoM predictions are mostly 99% BS?

    But who knows, we could still get some more. Maybe a couple of mm which would pull it back to that magical 97%.

  93. Neville August 16, 2014 at 10:23 am #

    There’s been a big increase in snowfall in the NH since 1997. http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/08/15/global-cooling-since-1997-worse-than-it-seems/
    Exactly the opposite to what Dr Viner and the IPCC were forecasting only a few years ago. Kids wouldn’t know what snow was and any falls would be a rare and exciting event. They couldn’t have been more wrong.

  94. Debbie August 16, 2014 at 1:49 pm #

    Yes SD,
    We are still waiting with baited breath for the forecasted rain in our area.
    Significant investment has been made by farmers all around here. . .topdressing their crops in anticipation of the forecasted very high probability of rain.
    We have had an excellent start to the season in our area and these forecast rains are perfect timing (if they eventuate)
    It will be very disappointing and very expensive if it does fizzle out.
    Depending on which analysis or site we check this morning, the probabilities range from 65% to 90% chance of rain and a range of 7ml to 30ml in the next 24 to 48 hours.
    3 days ago (when we needed to make some important management decisions about topdressing our crops) the probability was uniformly at 90% and the amount was 20ml to 30ml.
    The BoM continually markets itself as a good ‘risk management’ tool for Agriculture. Unfortunately, in the highly important precipitation space, they have demonstrated little to no improvement in forecasting skill.
    Anyway. . . .
    Fingers crossed 🙂

  95. Robert August 16, 2014 at 2:38 pm #

    Rainmageddon…yeah, right. Drizzle and crossed fingers here on the midcoast.

    Interesting that while winter + September make up our driest time of year here (August fire year 1895 being the scariest example), some of our most spectacular floods, including those whoppers of 1949 and 1950, were winter floods.

    While 1949 was our most catastrophic flood, much of the rain must have come from elsewhere, maybe snow. 1950, the real freak year for Eastern Oz, had staggering local rainfall for what is normally the driest part of the year. As I’ve said before, if 1950 happened again now in this post-Enlightenment era of computer-based religious hysteria, the climatariat would shriek.

    I suppose they’d shriek anyway. It’s what they do.

  96. Debbie August 16, 2014 at 3:31 pm #

    Well yes Robert.
    That particular skill (shrieking) has definitely increased.

  97. egg August 16, 2014 at 3:56 pm #

    Thanx Neville, I’ve been looking for the tipping point in atmospheric temperatures, when in fact snow extent is the true barometer.

  98. spangled drongo August 16, 2014 at 5:23 pm #

    Yes, good luck, Debbie.

    And Robert, drizzle and crossed fingers sums it up well. But light rain, if it keeps going, is the best.

  99. Neville August 17, 2014 at 8:00 am #

    An hilarious yarn from Tim Blair that should give everyone a good belly laugh. You can now more easily understand some of the fantasists that sometimes hang out at this blog.


  100. Neville August 17, 2014 at 8:57 am #

    A new Chinese study finds that drought and rainfall were much more extreme in northern China in the past.


  101. egg August 17, 2014 at 9:25 am #

    Novocastrian turbine sold to chook farmer in Tasmania.


  102. Debbie August 17, 2014 at 9:40 am #

    It must have been a slow news day Neville?
    I’m struggling to understand why this piece has received so much attention?
    I’m sympathetic re the problems associated with mental illness and anxiety. . . but the stated cause is just silly.
    After my recent travels to India & Indonesia, my overwhelming impression is that there is far too much sooking and overly precious behaviour amongst our ‘urban elite’ in Australia.
    We have cause to be very proud of our achievements and governance.
    This girl needs to get out and about some more.

  103. Neville August 18, 2014 at 8:10 am #

    Here’s more on the renewables super fraud, little wonder the Spanish economy is a basket case. There should be numerous people charged and hopefully made to pay for this fraudulent deception..


  104. Neville August 18, 2014 at 8:45 am #

    Another excellent update from Bob Tisdale using the available temp datasets.


  105. Neville August 18, 2014 at 9:51 am #

    Disgusting display from another so called indigenous leader. Funding for these people should be removed ASAP. How can anyone expect an improvement in indigenous education and job prospects when their leaders ??? behave like this?


  106. Neville August 18, 2014 at 10:51 am #

    A new study shows a reduction in relative humidity since 1870 over the Tibetan plateau. Also there is a stronger relationship to solar activity than GHGs. Much lower now than the average over the last 800 years.,


  107. egg August 18, 2014 at 7:48 pm #

    Following on from that …


  108. Neville August 19, 2014 at 9:06 am #

    A new study finds the sun is guilty again of climate change and temp etc in Greenland.


  109. Neville August 19, 2014 at 10:34 am #

    The leader of the party that controls the senate numbers calls our largest trading partners mongrels and bastards and silly Penny Wong continues to look silly. Wouldn’t they scream if it was a member of the Coalition?


  110. Neville August 19, 2014 at 10:57 am #

    This useless, clueless renewable energy garbage is costing the average family an extra $260 a year.


  111. Larry Fields August 19, 2014 at 11:36 am #

    Emerging Solar Plants Scorch Birds in Mid-Air

    IVANPAH DRY LAKE, Calif. — Aug 18, 2014, 2:15 PM ET

    By ELLEN KNICKMEYER and JOHN LOCHER Associated Press

    Workers at a state-of-the-art solar plant in the Mojave Desert have a name for birds that fly through the plant’s concentrated sun rays — “streamers,” for the smoke plume that comes from birds that ignite in midair.

    Federal wildlife investigators who visited the BrightSource Energy plant last year and watched as birds burned and fell, reporting an average of one “streamer” every two minutes, are urging California officials to halt the operator’s application to build a still-bigger version.

    The investigators want the halt until the full extent of the deaths can be assessed. Estimates per year now range from a low of about a thousand by BrightSource to 28,000 by an expert for the Center for Biological Diversity environmental group.
    The deaths are “alarming. It’s hard to say whether that’s the location or the technology,” said Garry George, renewable-energy director for the California chapter of the Audubon Society. “There needs to be some caution.”

    The bird kills mark the latest instance in which the quest for clean energy sometimes has inadvertent environmental harm. Solar farms have been criticized for their impacts on desert tortoises, and wind farms have killed birds, including numerous raptors.

    “We take this issue very seriously,” said Jeff Holland, a spokesman for NRG Solar of Carlsbad, California, the second of the three companies behind the plant. The third, Google, deferred comment to its partners.

    The $2.2 billion plant, which launched in February, is at Ivanpah Dry Lake near the California-Nevada border. The operator says it’s the world’s biggest plant to employ so-called power towers.

    More than 300,000 mirrors, each the size of a garage door, reflect solar rays onto three boiler towers each looming up to 40 stories high. The water inside is heated to produce steam, which turns turbines that generate enough electricity for 140,000 homes.

    Sun rays sent up by the field of mirrors are bright enough to dazzle pilots flying in and out of Las Vegas and Los Angeles.

    Federal wildlife officials said Ivanpah might act as a “mega-trap” for wildlife, with the bright light of the plant attracting insects, which in turn attract insect-eating birds that fly to their death in the intensely focused light rays.

    Federal and state biologists call the number of deaths significant, based on sightings of birds getting singed and falling, and on retrieval of carcasses with feathers charred too severely for flight.

    You can read more here.

    Larry’s comment: A claim that something is ‘good for the environment’ can be meaningless. Environmental ‘health’ is a multidimensional concept, which usually involves trade-offs of conflicting environmental goals.

    In this case, birds are pitted against the Flying CO2 Monster. I don’t know how far South and East the range of the California Condor extends. The state of California has spent tens of millions of dollars in a heroic effort to bring these magnificent birds back from the brink of extinction. It would be a shame if bird-fryers (solar -thermal power plants) and bird-choppers (wind turbines) did them in after all of that hard work.

  112. egg August 19, 2014 at 2:18 pm #

    ‘In other major news, a long needed revision to the 400-year sunspot record was proposed. It’ll be the first change made to the sunspot record since it was first established by Rudolf Wolf back in 1849. The changes will affect long-term climate and other dependent scientific studies.

    ‘One effect of the proposal will be to reduce modern sunspot totals. That will wipe out the so-called “Modern Maximum” and make the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, the weakest in 200 years.’


  113. egg August 19, 2014 at 5:48 pm #

    This would be a terrific bout.

    ‘Tim Flannery, head of the climate council, said last week he was keen to meet Newman to discuss his understanding of climate science because the businessman appeared to have “little regard for science and facts”.

    Guardian / Taylor

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