I don’t often visit the US. But I will be there next week at the 9th International Conference on Climate Change, hosted of course by the Heartland Institute and this time in Las Vegas.
If you live in the States, it’s not too late to register; for $129 you get all conference meals and sessions.
The conference opens Monday (July 7, 2014) with a cocktail reception followed by dinner. Tuesday and Wednesday (July 8–9) will kick-off with breakfasts featuring keynote speakers and awards ceremonies followed by sessions, lunch, more keynote speakers and more sessions.
Award winners include astrophysicists Willie Soon and S. Fred Singer.
Register for the event online, call 312/377-4000 and ask for Ms. McElrath or reach her via email at zmcelrath@heartland.org.
If you are stuck in Australia, you can watch the sessions live online by clicking here.
And before Monday, there is opportunity for you to revisit previous conferences, click here.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Will be as compulsive live viewing as The Tour de France, Jennifer.
Good luck!
Good luck Jen.
Take this with you:
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/clip_image002.png
Good for you Jen.
Have a great time.
. . . and also don’t forget to take this one with you:
http://veksterblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/the-world-is-flat.jpg
Las Vegas – how appropriate. So what do you see as the chance you are right about AGW and it having a minimum impact etc etc. About the same as you providing a sensible response.
Well Bazza, given no warming for 17 years despite increasing emissions, whats the chance warmers might actually acknowledge there is clearly something faulty with their pet hypothesis? as for the odds, the longer we see no warming, the greater the chance its a crap hypothesis, wouldnt you say?
how many years of no warming do you need before YOU start to question the CAGW meme?
IF the theory of CAGW was produced by real scientists, they would be looking for a new theory by now, Instead we have a bunch of pseudo scientists creating more elaborate excuses for why its all worse than they thought….whilst what they actually thought doesn’t happen. MADNESS..
Toby
you can see buzzerboy is running on empty, no coherent valid arguments, just ad hom one liner insults lately.
What’s wrong with Las Vegas Bazza?
It has excellent facilities to run large conferences.
It’s also a great place to visit at least once in your lifetime.
“These are not radical points. The same crew — tax-funded experts and functionaries — that claims to be able to fix global temperature and save humanity from melting ice caps decades from now also said 25 years ago that they would bring peace, happiness, and understanding to Iraq. They spent $2.4 trillion and smashed a civilization.
This is what bureaucrats do. They always pretend to know what they cannot really know, and are more than happy to squander other people’s money and liberty in order to realize their dreams. When they screw up, no one pays the price. This is why government almost always, make that always, gets it wrong.”
“In my conversation with my friend, I didn’t say all of this; I just hinted at it vaguely. It was enough. He began to shake. He turned white and began to pace. He called me a denialist. He was horrified to discover that his good friend turns out to be some kind of extremist weirdo who disparages science. He began to accuse me of believing in things I never said, of failing to read the science (though later admitting that he hadn’t read the science).”
Sound familiar JC?
http://tucker.liberty.me/2014/06/19/the-rage-of-the-climate-central-planners/
Marc is trying to say that the flat earth society was once the 97% consensus but now they prefer to go down this road:
https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/nasauschnages1999-20141.gif
And everyone there will be taking that with them.
Yes sp, ‘First do no harm’ In the case of centralized ignorance
that means, ‘When u don’t know, do nothing.’
sp, Yes to that link. I almost ruined a Xmas dinner a few years back, with such a casual remark. It is horrifying and it is a religious reaction to a heretic. The fear of the unknown perhaps ? No nice fluffy security blanket of global solutions, just naked uncertainty.
“Just when we thought we could control nature with laws, you are saying THAT? No, no, no, no. Cease immediately. “
All the best to Jennifer for the trip to Las Vegas and I will be watching as many of the sessions as I can. Poor old bazza doesn’t enjoy his warmist’s failures on so many fronts.
All the iconic features of his CAGW are not coming true so I suppose we can understand his silly bitterness. But ask him what the problems are and how to fix them and he goes through every time. But ya gotta laugh.
The latest info from Brozek and just the facts is now available on WUWT and GISS is the odd one out AGAIN.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/05/giss-is-unique-now-includes-may-data/#more-112484
The Japanese satellite data shows that Australia is the third largest co2 sequestering country on the planet. And this doesn’t even take into account the much larger sequestration from our EEZ. So when will we get our reparations cheque ?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/05/the-revenge-of-the-climate-reparations/#more-112572
Neville, that’s a great summary of the world’s carbon accounting data and how we are amongst the least guilty countries in the world.
Have you sent a link off to Christine Milne?
We should be able to sell these carbon credits to the guilty and make a fortune.
At the very least we should be able to offset them against our coal exports ☺.
Jen should take that to the ICCC too.
Spangled let’s hope that someone brings this up in Las Vegas. Certainly the idea of OZ having the world’s highest co2 tax is the ultimate absurdity.
But just heard that 59 donkeys have signed a petition calling on our parliament to keep the co2 tax. Of course led by that fool Hewson. Unbelievable pig ignorance on display for everyone to see.
Thank you Jennifer. Will be listening in keenly to you and the others.
A strong 2014 el nino is now looking less likely. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/06/the-2014-el-nino-is-looking-more-and-more-like-a-bust/#more-112600
Yesterday was the start of the Pacific Cup in San Francisco, a traditional trans Pacific yacht race to Hawaii, and I have been checking out the wind strengths as an old crew member of mine is skippering a yacht in the race for the Disney family of Disneyworld fame.
It seems the trade winds might be a little lighter than usual but not much and they are still blowing in the same direction.
I suspect the big el Nino will be a pussycat.
Shock horror the Greenland and Antarctic ice melt is zip. But listen to the climate change donkeys and they’ll try to lie and scare the crap out of you. And that’s just what the idiot MSM agrees to do.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/06/lying-with-statistics-the-national-climate-assessment-falsely-hypes-ice-loss-in-greenland-and-antarctica/#more-112590
Nevs 3rd go on the 6th to find some non-confirming stuff and from a guy who admitted he does not get science!.
“The Japanese satellite data shows that Australia is the third largest co2 sequestering country on the planet.”
Nev forgot to add it was for one year and it was a very good year particularly in the north of Australia.
How are you going to make it rain Nev and “Stop the fires” too.
if you are looking for the home of n=1 you have come to the right place.
Geeeezzzzz what a giggle from our bazza. Murry Salby provided a much longer period from the Jap satellite and still found a similar result.
But I repeat OZ is one of the largest co2 sinks on the planet. And if you add on our much larger EEZ we would easily be the largest sink per capita.
Mathematician and physicist Steve Burnett calls BS on the exaggerated claims about so called CAGW . Chris Essex’s video also showed that climate modelling was BS as well.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/06/about-that-30000-to-disprove-global-warming-contest/#more-112598
Nev, mention Salby and you lose!
struck me as rather ironic thx Nev! I always thought It was the one who went the ad hom who lost the argument?!
Bazz – Al Gore told us the arctic would be ice free by now.
Please explain why the ice is still there.
“For years, computer simulations have predicted that sea ice should be disappearing from the Poles.
Now, with the news that Antarctic sea-ice levels have hit new highs, comes yet another mishap to tarnish the credibility of climate science
Climatologists base their doom-laden predictions of the Earth’s climate on computer simulations.
But these have long been the subject of ridicule because of their stunning failure to predict the pause in warming – nearly 18 years long on some measures – since the turn of the last century.”
“But the relentless focus by activist scientists on the Arctic decline does suggest a political imperative rather than a scientific one – and when put together with the story of the US temperature records, it’s hard to avoid the impression that what the public is being told is less than the unvarnished truth”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2681829/Global-warming-latest-Amount-Antarctic-sea-ice-hits-new-record-high.html#ixzz36faZvbqV
sp tries the comedy relief – try some science goof-ball http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ BTW have you brushsed up on ENSO yet?
I see picking are so slim here now that Nev and Debs are have a little squeak squeak over at Nova’s with a little ra-ra and Nev trying to impress clipping a few url’s.
And a big laugh at http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/07/a-lesson-in-statistics-with-e-calvin.html at Beisner and Keister essay (I’m trying not to laugh myself).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2K8_jgiNqUc
What an impressive pedigree http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/E._Calvin_Beisner
But Bazza – jeez so they’re in sample sizes of one – and haven’t heard about the issue of “Additionality”. I’m sure everyone deserves a reward for background activity – He had a wife you know – hahahahahahahaa …. too much
I see Lukey hasn’t lost the ability to talk his usual gibberish and his usual fact free nonsense.
You’ve been pretty quiet yourself of late, Luke.
Having an ever-lengthening hiatus or has all that data fiddling been getting to you too?
Maybe it’s just all that unexpected sea ice from the melting ice caps forming over those warm oceans ☺.
Yep, genuine frontier gibberish from Luke with a few sciencey sounding terms thrown (copied from Shcleptikal Shience – the most siencey of all sites so I’m told – is that right Luke?)
Luke, your the Gabby Hayes of climate. Put your teeth in before you talk – less spittle on the screen that way.
Explain how global warming is causing increased antarctic ice Luke – I need a laugh
sp – errr no – you don’t even know whether you’re coming or going sonny. As you’re a climate goober evidenced by your amazing ENSO ignorance and penchant for only imbibing blog slops from where N-evil tells you where to sup – let me enlighten you – you may have noticed the northern hemisphere doesn’t look like the southern hemisphere (or maybe given your behaviour you haven’t). But anyways – freshening of the ocean raising the point of ice formation. In any case the rate is not comparable to the Arctic. Your problem dear boy is that you have to work how thermodynamics eventually affects ocean and atmosphere dynamics. i.e. it’s a system.
“Your problem dear boy is that you have to work how thermodynamics eventually affects ocean and atmosphere dynamics.”
It’s very reassuring to know how the very average alarmist has such a good grip on climate “problems” whereas the expert sceptic …….
And when those very average alarmists are so widely proclaimed by the equally very average alarmist press, it’s no wonder they can’t help putting their collective foot in it:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-07/giant-antarctic-ice-shelves-could-melt-faster-than-expected/5579678
Yes Luke it is a system and there are probably a lot more drivers and brakes working within that system than the models suggest. Cloud variation ( for EG) over time will probably be found to have a very important impact on the climate that is not properly taken account of at the moment.
But here’s another mob of fools that think that we should follow Luke’s Hockey Stick science, yet still believe in the virgin birth, miracles and resurrection. IOW they are upside down Luke’s fellow travellers and believers.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/respect_the_science_insist_warmists_who_believe_in_a_virgin_birth/#commentsmore
Probably as good a roundup of the AGW climate debate that one could wish for————–
richardscourtney says:
June 16, 2014 at 9:14 am
katatetorihanzo:
It seems that my attempt to assuage your fear failed because at June 16, 2014 at 8:40 am you write.
Can anyone send any specific conflicting evidence that the total heat energy of the climate (air, ice, ocean) is not rising. I am not looking for short pauses that are easily explained by short term cooling effects in one part of the climate system (surface air). I’m looking for evidence-based explanation, not “we don’t know” or merely an assertion that “we doubt this or that data”. Can anyone refute that the ice mass is decreasing? Can anyone say that heat content in the ocean has paused? Come on folks, give contra-factual evidence.
Nobody needs to provide any of the evidence you request. On the contrary, you need to check the data and to assess its interpretation.
It is the responsibility of those who make assertions to provide evidence to substantiate their claims and NOBODY is required to provide “contra-factual evidence”.
I again post the following but this time in the hope that it will help you to overcome your unfounded fears.
The Null Hypothesis says it must be assumed a system has not experienced a change unless there is evidence of a change.
The Null Hypothesis is a fundamental scientific principle and forms the basis of all scientific understanding, investigation and interpretation. Indeed, it is the basic principle of experimental procedure where an input to a system is altered to discern a change: if the system is not observed to respond to the alteration then it has to be assumed the system did not respond to the alteration.
In the case of climate science there is a hypothesis that increased greenhouse gases (GHGs, notably CO2) in the air will increase global temperature. There are good reasons to suppose this hypothesis may be true, but the Null Hypothesis says it must be assumed the GHG changes have no effect unless and until increased GHGs are observed to increase global temperature. That is what the scientific method decrees. It does not matter how certain some people may be that the hypothesis is right because observation of reality (i.e. empiricism) trumps all opinions.
Please note that the Null Hypothesis is a hypothesis which exists to be refuted by empirical observation. It is a rejection of the scientific method to assert that one can “choose” any subjective Null Hypothesis one likes. There is only one Null Hypothesis: i.e. it has to be assumed a system has not changed unless it is observed that the system has changed.
However, deciding a method which would discern a change may require a detailed statistical specification.
In the case of global climate no unprecedented climate behaviours are observed so the Null Hypothesis decrees that the climate system has not changed.
Importantly, an effect may be real but not overcome the Null Hypothesis because it is too trivial for the effect to be observable. Human activities have some effect on global temperature for several reasons. An example of an anthropogenic effect on global temperature is the urban heat island (UHI). Cities are warmer than the land around them, so cities cause some warming. But the temperature rise from cities is too small to be detected when averaged over the entire surface of the planet, although this global warming from cities can be estimated by measuring the warming of all cities and their areas.
Clearly, the Null Hypothesis decrees that UHI is not affecting global temperature although there are good reasons to think UHI has some effect. Similarly, it is very probable that AGW from GHG emissions are too trivial to have observable effects.
The feedbacks in the climate system are negative and, therefore, any effect of increased CO2 will be probably too small to discern because natural climate variability is much, much larger. This concurs with the empirically determined values of low climate sensitivity.
Empirical – n.b. not model-derived – determinations indicate climate sensitivity is less than 1.0°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 equivalent. This is indicated by the studies of
Idso from surface measurements
http://www.warwickhughes.com/papers/Idso_CR_1998.pdf
and Lindzen & Choi from ERBE satellite data
http://www.drroyspencer.com/Lindzen-and-Choi-GRL-2009.pdf
and Gregory from balloon radiosonde data
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/OLR&NGF_June2011.pdf
Indeed, because climate sensitivity is less than 1.0°C for a doubling of CO2 equivalent, it is physically impossible for the man-made global warming to be large enough to be detected (just as the global warming from UHI is too small to be detected). If something exists but is too small to be detected then it only has an abstract existence; it does not have a discernible existence that has effects (observation of the effects would be its detection).
To date there are no discernible effects of AGW. Hence, the Null Hypothesis decrees that AGW does not affect global climate to a discernible degree. That is the ONLY scientific conclusion possible at present.
Richard
Luke,
Let me enlighten you.
My post at Jonova’s blog was about the fact that most of the information and advice given to SE Australian Agriculture by such entities as BoM and CSIRO re weather /climate since 2009. .and which NRM administration has been assuming is good advice to allocate and manage resources. . . has turned out to be a very poor risk management tool.
The climate/weather has been noticeably contrary and uncooperative by getting wetter when they said it was drying up and drying up where they said it would be wetter.
🙂
I also pointed out that there will be no one happier than us farmers when seasonal variations and climate cycles are better understood and therefore easier to predict.
Thermodynamics affect ocean and atmosphere dynamics! Not pixies or giant eggbeaters? Damn, there has to be a Nobel or Emmy in that.
As to working out how…well, the last guy to go super deep was a director of cheesy movies. And he was there for the thrill.
But don’t let dismal ignorance of the deep hydrosphere spoil the latest round of climate theorising. And the fact that the (only) Antarctic melty bits are the likely volcanic bits mustn’t be allowed to make us too curious about the oceans and what underlies the oceans. Too much curiosity can kill faith.
Think local pause – act global no pause.
Nine months have now passed since there was a record temperature for a month in Australia. Call that a pause. Nev might?
But globally May was a record.
“Additionally, May 2014 marked the 39th consecutive May and 351st consecutive month (more than 29 years) with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average global temperature for May occurred in 1976 and the last below-average temperature for any month occurred in February 1985. “(NOAA)
“Neville July 8, 2014 at 9:06 am
Probably as good a roundup of the AGW climate debate that one could wish for————–
richardscourtney says: ”
Proof that Nev is no sceptic or else he would have looked up Courtneys quals and saved himself the embarrassment . what a joke.
Another flawed gotya moment from alarmist Bazza. When he isnt going the ad hom to win an argument he resorts to making the expected into the unexpected.
“Additionally, May 2014 marked the 39th consecutive May and 351st consecutive month (more than 29 years) with a global temperature above the 20th century average.”
Given the world has apparently warmed by 0.8 c over the century, what an earth is unusual about warmer months in recent years?!
up to 18 years of no increase in global temperatures does nothing to cause bazza to question his faith…its all worse than we thought cried hanrahan. Get a grip man.
how many years of no warming would it take for you to actually to question the dogma of CAGW??!
Luke & Bazza are giving contradictory lectures at the moment.
Luke wants to separate the globe into NH & SH and Bazza wants to go global or specifically local.
Interestingly, it doesn’t really matter which way you look at it. . .the doomsayers were apparently WRONG!
Any changes to the GLOBAL averages have NOT manifested themselves in any particular place in the prophesised alarming manner nor has it been
possible to quantify the anthropegic influence in any useful manner as far as risk management in our lives or businesses is concerned.
As I commented at an earlier thread, those of us who work in the REAL environment/weather/
climate are becoming more & more amused and less & less impressed.
People are now simply arguing about whose assessments were least wrong & perhaps hoping that we haven’t noticed they were all actually wrong!
Well Toby, if 2014 or 15 is a record kicked along by El Nino, you will be able to say it does not count in ending the pause.
The sheer quality of the sources here – Bolt, Morano, Wattsy etc. Truly a denio-fest banquet. But then there’s science….
And now Debs has invented uniformitarianism – I wonder why the climate isn’t the across the entire globe. In fact why isn’t every day the same temperature? Debbesian logic at full revs. Debs of course deals in sample sizes of 1-2 – much easier.
But you guys better round up some players blog looks on the verge of extinction, especially if you’re running over to Nova’s.
” But then there’s science….”
Yes, we’ve noticed, Lukey luv.
Why look at higher than average sea ice when there’s a perfectly good model going to waste that will tell you the real facts!
But I must admit you’re coming along nicely with your authoritarian tone similar to the other sandwich board rattlers.
And if we dont get record temperatures despite an el nino….will it cause you to question your dogma Bazza?…what will it take for you to actually question the meme that has been pushed so long and hard and yet the world has spent as much (or more!?) time doing nothing as it has warming over the last 30 years?
The science has certainly not proved causation and it doesnt even have correlation on its side!?
No Luke,
Debbie is assessing the results of the REAL/ACTUAL seasons/climate against the supposedly ‘settled science’ we were delivered in SE Aus from about 2006/07.
As I commented at Jonova’s. . .if there really was such a thing as the environmentalist’s construction of ‘mother nature’. . . she must have a highly contrarian nature and a wicked sense of humour.
In SE Aus she seems to have deliberately delivered the opposite to the ‘settled science.
🙂
BTW Luke,
Are you claiming that CSIRO & BoM’s predictions for SE Aus were right and/or unquestionably useful as a risk management/business tool?
CSIRO were adamant in 2009 that the trend was indicating ‘drying up’, particularly in Autumn & BoM’s 2013 winter/spring forecast was 80% probability of wetter than average.
NRM administration ended up unprepared for a severe seasonal drought and lots of public resources like water resources and DPI resources
were poorly allocated and managed.
What do you mean “were right” Debs – you are not there yet. I.e. The future. It’s only been 5 minutes figuratively. I think you mean to ponder short term and long term myself.
Debs – here’s the latest industry climate comic – http://www.managingclimate.gov.au/publications/climag-issue-25-june-2014/
Perhaps you could get involved and sort them out. Of course they may need chainmaille to prevent them chewing their arms off given your positive style.
Topics include:
CLIMAG 25:
The key to better seasonal forecasts: Is it a multi-model approach?
Climate tools that manage for drought
Project updates
Researchers blazing a trail on extreme heat predictions
Improving regional forecasts for rainfall and temperature
From heat stress to frost risk: Recent research into Australia’s climate
Multi-week forecast maps on the way
Weather forecasts may help reduce greenhouse gas emissions from nitrogen fertiliser
App update to provide access to drought and crop yield analysis
Onwards and upwards for Managing Climate Variability
Sorry Luke?
Was that yes or no?
Silly question Debs
Will the cake taste nice – well it ain’t cooked yet.
Will we enjoy the holiday? well we’re not there yet so we don’t know.
Jeez Debs – How many degrees was it? Carrying on the blog tradition of n=1 or 2 …..
But Luke?
We were all told that the science is settled.
Further, it was settled that SE Aus was drying up & that the most worrying drying trend was Autumn.
That was 2009.
It’s now 2014.
My question was about a cake that’s already eaten and a holiday that is already over.
Debbie you’ll find that Luke, bazza etc have about as much common sense and logic and reason as Clive Palmer. He’s not worth the effort. But then again like some of his heroes Luke is an upside down sort of guy.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/palmer_promised_not_to_do_what_he_did_with_the_missing_12_million/
Bob Tisdale has posted his latest on ENSO. Looks like the chances of a strong El nino are diminishing. But time will tell. But higher surface temps to come for a while.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/08/the-201415-el-nino-part-12-july-2014-update-the-feedbacks-need-to-kick-in-soon/#more-112665
No Debs – indeed you have a major comprehension problem. How’d ya get all those degrees. Arts was it? As I said previously – all this is beyond you – give up on it and flip coins or divine tea leaves.
Yes Debbie you should believe in dark age superstitions and witchcraft plus upside down data just like Lukey. SARCY.
Btw here’s another computer modeler who agrees with Chris Essex that it’s often a lot of BS. Yes it’s sometimes about advocacy but not always about science. But Lukey loves the BS.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/wsj-confessions-of-computer-modeler-any.html
Thx Nev, I love this quote from your computer program link “there is no denying that anyone who makes a living building computer models likely does so for the cause of advocacy, not the search for truth.”
My old man has just got back from Europe. He says they are pushing CAGW more than ever and when somebody does have the balls to stand up and call it for what it is…they get howled down and given such abuse you can understand why fewer people seem to have the guts to speak up and call this sham for what it is.
How can the data we currently have showing no warming for a considerable period of time, not be evidence that the science is a long way from settled when it comes to CAGW??!
Surely real scientists would have the balls to stand up and question the “science” as it stands. ….and it doesnt say much for scientists as a group. Ignorant bloggers can be excused, but if you are being paid as an expert you should have the integrity to be prepared to challenge the dogma you are pushing and recognise and acknowledge where flaws obviously lie…..remember sceptics are not generally disputing the fact that co2 does help to warm the planet and clearly humans create an anthropogenic influence. It is the degree of warming and the negative consequences which so obviously are in dispute.
The longer we see a pause in warming surely the more sceptical you have to get…..and yet we are told things are worse than we thought!!…come on Luke and Bazza, how can a statement like that get made and not deserve a rude rebuke??!
Toby, the prob with Europe is that they’ve gone in so deep with the white elephants. France is happy because it can flog its nuclear to suckers like Spain (France now the world’s biggest electricity retailer) and it wins in any carbon trade offs.
The reason Europeans have to manipulate the carbon price so shamelessly is that they know deep down that Germany has to keep producing so it can go on buying the drinks.
Of course, everybody would like to be a good green citizen like Norway…but there’s a problem with terra-forming the whole of Europe for hydro and funding their wholesomeness with lakes of North Sea oil (like good green citizen Norway).
Neville – the typical graffiti style denier – believes anything – can only cut and paste. What a bore. Over to Nova’s with you for a little mousey squeak squeak and see if you get noticed. “Miss miss miss – look at me miss”.
“there is no denying that anyone who makes a living building computer models likely does so for the cause of advocacy, not the search for truth.” How moronic when Evans and Nova have nailed their book to the door with the big coolist solar MODEL. The drivel just runs out of you lot. How else do you understand complex interacting phenomena with feedbacks. Probably Robby’s kayak and slide rule I imagine.
“sceptics are not generally disputing the fact that co2 does help to warm the planet” – generally but a whole bunch are saying that nonetheless
As for the pause – well when one looks at the perspective of a 100 years which is what this issue is (unlike Debs who wants to be there by now) – it’s an internal variability blip.
You have to smile at Jo Nova appealing for politeness and civility when she presides over a pit of vipers each day.
Luke you really beggar belief, but you’re either so hopelessly stupid or you must think we are?
You’ve lost the argument on so many levels it’s hard to know where to begin. While nearly everyone accepts there should be some AGW in the system, it is very hard to see any impact after 1950 . ( IPCC chosen date)
The rate of SLR hasn’t altered since 1950 and many recent SL studies now show a deceleration since 1950 as well. And ditto the 2014 Leclercq world glacier study now backs this up.
The IPCC even says there is no change in recent extreme weather events and polar bear numbers have increased by 400 to 500% since 1950.
The recent RS and NAS report states there is nothing we can do to change co2 levels for thousands of years, yet we still have donkeys on the left and the MSM telling us that “we must take action on AGW or we must tackle CC.”
In spite of decades of measurements they still can’t find the fabled hot spot 10 km above the equator at all.
Germany and other EU countries are now building new brown coal fired stns to try and fix their electricity grids after wasting over 100 bn on S&W energy for a zero return.
And there has been no statistically significant warming in the 2 satellite data sets for over 18 years UAH and 22 years RSS. ( using Nick Stoke’s SS estimate)
When are you going to wake up?
” it is very hard to see any impact after 1950″ uh-huh – right ….
“many thousands of years” – are you really that outright damn stupid. (a) so you should be more worried about unconstrained growth – it’s not an excuse to have rampant growth as once it’s up there it’s much more difficult to remove (b) doesn’t include anything down the track of geoengineering or burial sequestration. Just denier drivel Neville – you’re unable to think two inches in front of your nose.
As for temperature trends all the land based series show totally different trends http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/temperature-trend-viewer.html and the only sceptics latch onto the satellite sets is they don’t represent the Arctic.
You haven’t a clue about sea level – http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/07/22/how-not-to-analyze-tide-gauge-data/ shreds some of the crap that’s been written.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/07/is-sea-level-rise-accelerating/
Germany was their decision to phase out nukes so stop lying through your teeth.
When are you going to wake up Neville and stop reading denier pig slops. Meanwhile go and see if Jo will notice you among the other vipers “Miss oh miss miss – look at me look at me…”
Stop being a climate porn peddler Nifty.
Nev, German solar and woodchips-to-Drax are all the proof you need that warmists are ninnies. You don’t even need refer to the whirlygigs and Timmy’s Geothermia. If it’s any comfort to the winter mushrooming brigade, coolists are also ninnies.
But warmies are by far the biggest dopes. Outrageous simplifiers who complicate outrageously.
Luke.
Interestingly. . . flipping coins & reading tea leaves in the timeframe would have been no less successful.
It’s not beyond me Luke.
I’m still here despite the doom & gloom projections. 🙂
Luke what a stupid weak response and you’ve proved beyond a doubt that I am correct. Ever since I started to comment here years ago I have CONSISTENTLY stated that we should spend our money on more R&D and adaptation.
That’s the best way to make sure we may one day have better, safer, RELIABLE, BASELOAD energy sources and you have just belatedly agreed with my point of view.
You seem to agree with me that we should be building new, safe nukes that can burn old waste as fuel, but you need to give your fellow lefties a kick up the backside and tell them to wake up ASAP. That’s your job not ours. Good luck with that.
But unfortunately it will take at least 20 years to plan and organize for OZ to start to build even one new nuke stn. Again that’s your barking mad lefty problem not ours.
Jo Nova’s blog is like this blog because they allows anyone to have a go, unlike the stupid blogs you sometimes link to and the bloggers are much more civil than some of the strange types from your links.
BTW it’s great to see an honest OZ polly highlight and censure some of our more absurd serial exaggerators. What a joke these people are as the passing years have now shown.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/christensen_vs_flannery_and_the_alarmists/
WHAT you accuse me of a weak response. You’ve just been given a wedgie you clueless goober.You don’t know diddly squat about climate science – in fact you’re simply a parrot told what to think. Like being led around by the nose ring do you? Screeching like a deranged parrot.
Stop reading climate porn. And stop peddling it. It’s not like any of us are incapable of reading Wattsy or Bolt for ourselves. Should we be so stupid.
First comment your LNP mate makes “I am not a climatologist” yea right !
Yo’re a dinosaur out of touch and out of time. World is moving regardless of your whiney sooking. For example …..
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-09/solar-panels-leads-to-less-demand-for-electricity/5586036 Just one of those ongoing disruptions to poor little Nifty’s myopic world view.
The new EIKE analysis shows that SLR is consistently under 2mm a year or about 17cm a century or about 7 inches as do the GRACE satellite measurements.
http://notrickszone.com/2014/07/09/comprehensive-eike-review-of-sea-level-rise-shows-topexposeidonjason-results-are-inflated-faulty/
Well unlike you Luke I can understand simple maths and use logic and reason. If you take away the taxpayer subsidies S&W energy fall in a heap.
And I look to Germany etc to tell me that S&W are a farce and a stupid waste of billions of our dollars every year, just to wreck our energy grid.
When will you wake up and use proper observation instead of repeating a failed experiment? You should know by now that repeating a failed experiment hoping for a different result is just another sign of madness.
And all that S&W have to be backed up by base load power from reliable gas, coal or nuclear energy when 18th century wind power isn’t available or 20th century solar lacks sufficient sunlight. Wake up.
Neville denier sites are a dime a dozen. Get real.
People doing solar are doing it for economic reasons, now not with subsidy. You’re a dinosaur mate – next we’ll have people fully dropping off YOUR gold-plated grid.
And I note even on wind power – not what kindy maths bulldusting deniers want you to hear http://www.uq.edu.au/eemg/docs/RET_Review/EEMG_Submission%20to%20the%20RET%20Review_140516.pdf
The grid isn’t wrecked boyo – it’s gold plated !
Stop reading climate porn Nifty and smell the roses.
According the the US Geologiical Survey, on average 1 MW of wind capacity requires 103 tonnes of stainless steel, 402 tonnes of concrete, 6.8 tonnes of fiberglass, 3 tonnes of copper and 20 tonnes of cast iron. In a carbon limited economy that will all be more expensive, needless to say.
It’s okay though, money aside. We have plenty of fossil fuels to mine and process all that. And plenty of fossil fuel to make and install all that. And plenty of fossil fuel to demolish and cart away SOME of that. (Cabling and concrete may have to stay, unless we sell off the gold plate on our power poles to fund the world’s biggest concrete smash.)
When good alternatives to coal (eg wind power, but not what we’re insulted with now) become feasible because of improved storage, transmission etc we will, of course, have to start again. But don’t worry, warmies. We have plenty of fossil fuel for all that.
Well then Luke add the billions in cost of the RET scheme and see how you go. Alby Shultze covered this con and fraud years ago and in his one electorate this fraud was worth billions.
But the Germans and other EU countries must be crazy people building more brown CF stns, because by your calculations they should just keep building even more looney S&W .
But just look at the projections for the next 30 years and S&W will still be generating sfa in percentage terms.
But by all means let us stop all taxpayer funding for S&W and if they can still start up and compete with coal, gas and nuclear and provide reliable base load power 24/7 you will have proved your point. You are a real joker.
I forgot to mention that we have plenty of fossil fuel to SUPPLEMENT all that. But it really is a pity that we have to burn so much good Aussie coal for no purpose and in ageing facilities.
Fortunately, Asians are starting to burn our coal in much more modern and efficient plants than our own. I don’t think they achieve that by plating their facilities with gold. I understand it has more to do with lighter, new-gen turbines etc. This is important because they, and not Aussies or pixies, will have to supply most of the alternative energy trash we are obliged to use.
At least, I think this is so. Unlike the ABC, I don’t have a direct line to the pixies.
Luke can’t put two ideas together to support his religious views on climate. Just insults and cut ‘n’ paste.
And he has the hide to berate Neville?
He just doesn’t get that the CFPSs need individual private solar like a hole in the head when they have to be in standby during daylight hours for the big evening hit.The sooner the solar privates go off-grid the better and stop forcing up everyone’s power bills.
I’ve lived off-grid on both wind and solar power and if you think that’s possible without a F/F generator you are kidding yourself. Even with big banks of batteries.
Go and spend some time in Windorah if you think renewables are the way to go.
Labor spent $100,000 per house on renewables and still uses ~ the same diesel fuel in the back-up generator.
Don’t just waffle the talk, walk the walk.
One million Aussies and growing don’t agree. So get updated boys.
Anyway get lithium batteries of consequence and we may well see many grid departures. Then you can enjoy paying for the gold plating that’s left.
Nobody predicted one million households so you lot are simply dinosaurs.
Backup gennies are simply that – backup.
Get lithium batteries of consequence and I’ll depart the grid. 97% of pixies agree.
And backup gennies are simply backup? Damn. I just keep learning. Did you know that SD? Those backup gennies you were talking about are actually for backup. No. Really. A backup generator is for backup!
Well forest kayakers may always have comprehension issues. Pixies and deniers didn’t see a million homes with solar. Problem with deniers is that they are back in horse and buggy days. Or maybe kayaks with outboards – who would know?
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/ubs-australian-households-go-grid-2018
At some point that backup might start to grow many cobwebs
Don’t blame me – I’m just an observer.
You can sook all you like – the tsunami is here. ! Populace is moving.
And given the right wing has terminated the manufacturing industry in this country so much power won’t be needed.
Bring me your huddled masses of bourgeois householders with a lazy few thou and I will give them subsidy!
The Posh People’s flag is deepest green!
Nobody can stop the Guardianista jihad….on to Williams Sonoma and Macro with their subsidised savings!
So. Luke, are you currently off-grid solar with lithium batteries and no f/f back up, getting your power supply al less than average or are you as usual in pixieland?
Tell us all about it.
Some real-world true facts.
Come off your fake high moral ground and give us the truth for a change.
The big trouble is Luke’s fairyland is yet again paid for by the poor bloody taxpayer. Germany took decades to wake up to this con and fraud yet wasted 100 billion before they came to their senses.
But silly Luke still believes in his religious garbage and still thinks that his fact free ideas are better than Germany’s bitter experience and understanding. Of course Luke MADLY believes we should be unscientific and keep repeating a failed experiment hoping for a different result, next time, next time……….
But as I said before there is one sure real scientific test, just remove all taxpayer funding from this con and let them compete. And let’s see how many people want to pay the full $ amount to fund these solar and wind frauds.
The true dinosaurs are the religious nuts and uneducated fools who still believe in witchcraft, superstition and the transfer of wealth from the very poor to the very rich. Fits Luke like a glove. OH and zip change for thousands of years.
SD, I watched State of Origin last Wednesday at a mate’s place back in the forest. He has been all solar for over twenty years, since it would be too expensive to lead in the grid. His set up is really good and getting better. He has the income to cover the extra expense, and he takes an interest.
We were able to hook up a computer projector to a little set top box and get a surprisingly good big screen. My other solar friends have all gone on to the grid as soon as it was practical for them to do so.
I guess if anybody in this valley was tempted to go the other way it would be me, but the extra reliance on vehicles and trailers for gas, hardware etc would actually make me less independent. Of course, like you I’ve been on solar and could easily handle it again – but the grid wins hands down for now.
I’m the type who would enjoy going off grid if it made sense and wasn’t just an expensive hobby. I love it when things get less expensive and less corporate (hence Linux). But luring people off the grid with regulation, subsidy, enticements etc is a recipe for massive waste, expense and disruption…which is probably why our Green Betters love the idea.
Never mind the waste, feel the fetish.
One million households and they don’t look like Greenies to me. Blog dinosaurs out of touch and out of time. With daily science nonsense peddling by Nifty e.g. no change for 1,000 years – his excuse to keep cranking it up. What a crook.
Do you help to behead the duck, Luke?
Or do you just quack?
http://theconversation.com/slash-australians-power-bills-by-beheading-a-duck-at-night-27234
Yes, Robert. If I were younger and fitter I would go off-grid with electricity like I am with water. To heck with the expense. But it is not only more expensive but a far greater commitment. The grid is better than being a hypocrite. We just try to behead the duck somewhat.
There are many factory farms around here who got in early and are on the 44c FIT with huge racks of systems making a fortune. You can’t blame them, just the green dills who allowed it.
Spain still owes over 140 BILLION euros to green energy projects, having paid out 56 billion. It can’t pay, of course. Making the necessary cuts is political suicide, not making them is national suicide. Meanwhile, their power sucks (wind and solar, duh), so they have to start looking at a new energy revolution, a nuclear one (which would have been a good idea in the first place, but nukes have a huge up-front cost).
We should be relieved that the scale of Australia’s disaster is as modest as Luke has described. Strangely, he thinks it a good thing. Poor old feller doesn’t want to be an out of touch dinosaur. Someone please tell him, nicely. I don’t have the bedside manner.
Gaze on this ye Lukes and despair:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/10/trailer-for-new-global-warming-documentary/
Spangled I was offered 66c by Origin energy and knocked them back. But I have mates etc who did the same as your examples and they’ve installed them on sheds, houses, shearing sheds or whatever and are way in front.
Some are wealthy and most think CAGW is a very large crock of crap and hate the co2 tax and want it gone ASAP. And it’s because of their hatred of this idiotic tax that they’ve decided to help themselves to the system.
But I think silly Luke should be left to his fanatical desires and drongo delusions. BTW Jennifer performed well at the conference in IMHO and is very easy on the eyes.
Yes, Neville, I think the conference has been going well but of course not a lot of coverage:
http://www.worldmag.com/2014/07/who_benefits_from_overblown_climate_change_forecasts
Steve Goddard on the conference… http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/10/important-lessons-from-las-vegas/
And a good point made by Joe Bast, publicly reported:
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/bast-if-there-s-no-global-warming-there-s-no-climate-change
One million households while the old men sook on the porch…. sad ….
stupid Nifty just wants to see how high he can push that CO2 level. Then complain he can’t get it down soon. Blog brilliance at its best.
If you think feed-in tariffs are loopy…
Drax have gone ahead and are burning South Carolina forests (others are burning Louisiana forests) to meet biomass requirements from the EU. The waste and emissions are enormous, of course, before and after the stuff has been carted to England. The only argument anyone can find is that trees will grow back, thus sequestering carbon…eventually! Everyone is having trouble keeping a straight face over this lot, and some environmental groups (old sooks who kinda remember about conservation) are starting to buck. Unfortunately, as with wind and feed-in tariffs, the money is down and the contracts signed. It really wouldn’t matter if they were burning their grandmothers now.
Why be surprised? When the New Class chatterati took Timmy’s Geothermia seriously you knew they would take anything seriously. After Timmy’s hole in the ground in the middle of nowhere…anything! The only scandal is when someone tries to stop or modify an insane green scheme ahead of the bailffs. (Pity the poor PP government in Spain.)
There are a lot of quite bright and educated people who just can’t think. They have the patter, but their noodles are a desolation.
“while the old men sook on the porch…. sad ….”
And there I was expecting to hear from you to offer to help in our just completed Albert’s Lyrebird survey…..☺
Yes, Robert, Luke thinks that because millions of people have spent billions on roof-top solar, that is absolute proof of AGW.
Brisbane’s coldest morning this am in over a hundred years also supports his argument.
Luke keeps up his fact free comments and just proves he’s lost his grip on reality. There is zip I can do to stop co2 emissions rising and the soaring emissions from China, India etc.
I can assure Luke my co2 footprint is way under the average, because I drive an 11 year old car that runs on gas and my house is very cheap to run in winter and summer. My air travel is very limited and my rare holidays are very boring and require very few co2 emissions to get to my destination.
Granted I’m not up to Anthony Watt’s level with his self funded solar house and driving a small electric car etc or Steve Goddard’s extensive use of a bicycle to get around his community. But I certainly emit a lot less co2 than the average Aussie.
But as I’ve often pointed out your heroes like HIPPO Gore etc must have the co2 footprint of a Yeti. Yet he is never condemned and in fact he is feted and always promoted and encouraged by Fairfax and their ABC.
Shock horror, Monckton finds that there isn’t a 97% consensus but 100%. The only disagreement is about feedbacks, but read about his poll of the Heartland audience when they are asked the important questions.
As I’ve always said there should be some AGW in the system, but there is zip evidence that there is CAGW.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/11/the-climate-consensus-is-not-97-its-100/#more-112798
“but there is zip evidence that there is CAGW.” a duh – are we there yet? like at 2100?
“There is zip I can do to stop co2 emissions rising and the soaring emissions from China, India ” – that’s because you’re not the executive govt with a chance in a bigger picture of negotiating a global deal or spanning off major research.
As for Moncktons’ poll – well do remember that as there are large amounts of the blogosphere that dispute most of his survey. So more stunts.
Wouldn’t you just love to know who was doing the heavy selling in 2008?
http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Charts.aspx?asxCode=GDY&compare=comp_index&indicies=0&pma1=0&pma2=0&volumeInd=9&vma=0&TimeFrame=M10
Remember, geothermal is old tech. I have personally known a French geothermal electrician who spent his life in the field and told me that it’s a handy way to warm and cool if you are in the right geographical position. End of story. The rest was known to be nonsense when Flannery was spruiking and being applauded for his role in Geodynamics. How was any of this possible?
Kids! Out of the kitchen! Now!
“Yes, Robert, Luke thinks that because millions of people have spent billions on roof-top solar, that is absolute proof of AGW”
more verballing.
Nope. I think it means that a very large number of people, a surprising number, think solar is an economic deal and a technology of the future. This level of takeup, ongoing even without subsidies, (and doing a Neville don’t blame me) means economies of scale and an issue big enough to start moving grid design around. Knowing people who have solar systems I hardly ever hear them relate the issues to global warming. It’s an economic/technological thing.
But not managed this will become a grid disruptive issue and for those that can’t afford solar, will drive prices up as the smaller number of residual full-grid users pay more per user for the grid’s gold plating derived from coping with peak air-con load a few times per year. A disruptive technology now in free market experiment.
However the main issue is that whether 5 years ago we would have predicted where we are now?
Confucius say; man who overload with pv bound to have quack-up.
http://theconversation.com/slash-australians-power-bills-by-beheading-a-duck-at-night-27234
Just ask the people who have PV if they think going off-grid is a proposition economically.
Like all you alarmist’s renewable projections, it all depends on some future technology that may never happen.
You just haven’t got the brains or the patience to see that.
And some of us oldies get by OK:
http://www.tastefullyoffensive.com/2014/07/84-year-old-man-surprises-americas-got.html
Imagine those residual full-grid users (poor sooky saps) desperately hanging solar panels off the sunny side of skyscrapers? Still, if the government comes up with a generous incentive scheme for flying blimps full of solar panels above city buildings, well…who can predict where we’ll be in five years?
Oh please. Get the kids out of the kitchen now. I can’t bear it.
“Oh please. Get the kids out of the kitchen now. I can’t bear it.”
The problem is, Robert, they are the useful idiots as far as the scientific con-jobs are concerned:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/11/nyt-crack-down-on-scientific-fraudsters/#more-112818
Yep a million Aussie households of kids ! Hold back the tide guys ….
Google’s off and into it http://www.engadget.com/2014/04/23/google-sunpower-solar-panel-fund/
The tsunami approaches – old codger dinosaurs look up from idyllically grazing in the swamp ….
I bet you think Clive Palmer is an asset too.
Luke Logic: claiming an interpretation of dubious reasoning “verballing”.
Stick with the polar bears and the penguins and give the PV away.
They’re a much better guide:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/adelie_penguins_give_warming_scaremongers_the_bird/
Quick!!! More rooftop solar:
http://www.nbnnews.com.au/index.php/2014/07/02/tweed-fisherman-spots-unexpected-stowaway-tailing-boat/
All the Europeans need to do is go solar, that should stump the Russians – I wonder how germany, the green giant, will go with more expensive russian gas, or do the germans prefer cheap US coal over solar panels?
Beware, Europe: Winter Is Coming:
“Europe has some hard months ahead of it, but it should use this as an opportunity to exploit its own shale energy reserves, and fully embrace nuclear energy as a significant supply of green baseload power.”
http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/07/11/beware-europe-winter-is-coming/
What, no solar?
Listening to Luke is like listening to a Krushchev shoe-thumping rant. We will bury you! We will bury you! Of course, Mr K didn’t envisage tsunamis of subsidised, leased-back solar panels. But I’m sure he would have loved the idea once he saw the mess it can make.
I’m a bit of an alternative enthusiast. You know, in the right places there may well be a smart way to boost the grid with solar. This is NOT it.
It’s not me Robby – I’m just warning you that the redcoats are coming.
Like just observing … I don’t see kayaks in forests but I do see solar panels everywhere I go. Being homeless I don’t have a roof to put any on myself.
Homeless without a kayak in a forest of solar panels! Stop sooking, Supe. You’ve got winter mushrooms. Uncle Nikita would have told you you never had it so good.
When our weather patterns that have been MIA on the east coast of Australia – south of the ToC – since 1976, return, and we get cyclones at the rate of 6 per season, rooftop solar is going to play larry dooley with house roofs and we will find how good a bit of kit they really are.
I always wonder why no one has come up with a correlation between that abrupt change and the corresponding warm period.
Too right spangled – you never see power poles down in storms.
Besides, there’s a good correlation of rooftop solar to obesity.
Pays to be roofless.
Power poles usually only come down if trees fall on lines. If trees fall on roofs well you’re cactus but steady cyclonic pressure on double windage panels-on-roofs is a consistent load that will cause a lot of problems that insurance won’t necessarily cover.
In a cyclone you need double windage on your roof like Custer needed Indians.
Brisbane has just had its coldest temps for 103 years and French Antarctic has just had the coldest June on record. Macca interviewed people this morning about recent cold weather on” OZ all over” and a tanker driver talked about some inland Qld temps last week being the coldest on record. Some mornings down to 4 and 5c below zero.
This was due west from MacKay but I didn’t catch the names. He is a driver who carts fuel to mining projects.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/remember_brisbane_the_next_time_a_warmist_hypes_some_hot_weather/Brisbane%20has%20hit%20its%20coldest%20temperatures%20in%20103%20years.
I don’t know what kind of scientist believes in global warming, but I suspect it’s one which is rewarded for shilling to that effect.
Seriously, this group has either got to be outright stupid, or active participants in an on-going criminal enterprise intended to not only defraud the planet, but to also pull the wool over peoples eyes by diversion of reality.
Our planet is obviously undergoing a transition, one it has apparently done repeatedly in the past, and these lying criminals supporting this global lie damn well know it.
We all know this is the reason we have an active geological planet, that the ice is melting from beneath, that the sea floors have been changing depth, that volcano’s are going off all over, that mud is spewing out of the surface, that wildlife is dying enmasse, and so who in hell do these imbeciles think they are fooling?
I don’t know why people don’t wake up to his game….and just leave it to him [Luke].
The truth will out without his 5th columnist style of interference and spoliation masquerading as science, and a science we all know is incompetent and beyond help.
When the data continues to trumps the idiot models then he and his cronies are on a hiding to nothing. In the meantime the scientific method goes down the gurgler…and public disquiet grows.