I HAVE repeatedly argued that it is important for Australians to have a better understanding of natural historical temperature variability. I have also stressed that this can not be achieved by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reporting on a contrived national annual average temperature each year, particularly given that this mean is based on an adjusted and homogenised official record that only begins in 1910.
In a recent letter to Minister Hunt I suggested that the official temperature record for individual localities, where possible, should be extended back in time. I reiterated that the current start date of 1910 for all official records is arbitrary and excludes valuable temperature recordings including those made through the Federation Drought (1896 to 1902).
In recent correspondence concerning my letter to Mr Hunt (but not addressed to me, so I can’t share it at this moment) the Bureau has insisted that temperature records prior to 1910 were reported on more informally and in a range of standard and non-standard ways and are therefore unreliable. Furthermore, it is claimed in supporting materials, that there is no evidence to suggest that the late 1890s and early 1900s were exceptionally hot. A paper by Linden Ashcroft, David Karoly and Joelle Gergis (Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, Vol 62) is cited in support of this claim.
The Ashcroft et al. paper is not a study of the historical temperature record per se, but rather uses a two-step homogenization process to correct pre-1910 data for select locations in south-eastern Australia.
BREAKING NEWS… Dr Dennis Jensen MP states in the Australian Parliament that the Bureau of Meteorology plays fast and loose with the data and calls for an AUDIT. Watch on YouTube http://youtu.be/WQDjX9uVYMo ****
I am interest in getting a better understanding of the methodology used by Ashcroft et al. and also the reliability of the historical temperature data.
Given the statistical approach they employed, I wonder, for example, if they may have inadvertently and incorrectly adjusted down very hot days during the period of the Federation Drought?
Bourke in central western New South Wales is one of the localities used by Ashcroft et al.
Ian George, a past contributor at this blog with a particular interest in temperature data, has previously brought to my attention adjustments made to data for Bourke in January 1939 with the raw temperatures being reduced by up to 0.9 degrees Celsius in the homogenised official data set. Was a similar methodology applied to the earlier data series by Ashcroft et al.?
Regarding the reliability of the historical data: when was a Stevenson Screen first installed at Bourke? How was the temperature recorded before installation of the Stevenson’s Screen?
The following plot of the annual average maximum temperatures for Bourke theoretically based on the raw unadjusted data was downloaded directly from the Bureau’s website. Does someone know where I can find a plot of the adjusted official annual data for Bourke from 1910 and/or has someone a template that is useful for generating annual values from ACORN daily temperature data – or do I just need to get on and do this myself?
Does someone know how to apply the Ashcroft et al. two-step method to the pre-1910 Bourke data and what might this data series look like?
Update (11pm): A Stevenson Screen was installed at Bourke in August 1908. An exceptionally high temperature recorded after this date, on 3 January 1909, has nevertheless been expunged from the ‘raw’ temperature record for Bourke by officers at the Bureau. Even with these unofficial temperature adjustments, it’s evident that temperatures in Bourke have not been increasing since August 1908, rather it would appear, that consistent with the raw temperature data for much of Australia, temperatures have been steady or falling. The only way the Bureau can get an increasing trend is through data adjustments which should not be necessary anyway post the installation of a Stevenson Screen.
Click on the image/chart to see the entire data series and for a larger view.
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Some Useful Links
Linden Ashcroft et al. 2012 paper in Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/2012/ashcroft.pdf
Some of my recent correspondence concerning temperature records and the Bureau http://jennifermarohasy.com/correspondence/
Comment made in previous thread by Ian George about Bourke data adjustments http://jennifermarohasy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/IanGeorge_AnomalyComment.pdf
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
The lack of a reliable record pre-1910 won’t stop the climatariat using comparatives such as “hotter”, “drier”, “more extreme”, “worse”, “more frequent” etc. They allow comparatives, they just don’t want us looking at the points of comparison.
Stunt.
Jen – according to Toorok’s adjustments Bourke received it’s Stevenson Screen in 1909 but the asterix implies its unclear.
Key
~~~
Station
Element (1021=min, 1001=max)
Year
Type (1=single years, 0=all previous years)
Adjustment
Cumulative adjustment
Reason : o= objective test
f= median
r= range
d= detect
documented changes : m= move
s= stevenson screen supplied
b= building
v= vegetation (trees, grass growing, etc)
c= change in site/temporary site
n= new screen
p= poor site/site cleared
u= old/poor screen or screen fixed
a= composite move
e= entry/observer/instument problems
i= inspection
t= time change
*= documentation unclear
48013 1021 1965 0 -0.2 -0.2 odn
48013 1021 1909 0 +1.0 +0.8 ords*
48013 1021 1897 0 -1.7 -0.9 ord
48013 1021 1885 0 -1.5 -2.4 ord
48013 1021 1880 1 +2.0 -0.4 rd
48013 1001 1965 0 +0.3 +0.3 fn
48013 1001 1915 0 +0.6 +0.9 frd
48013 1001 1909 0 -1.5 -0.6 ords*
48013 1001 1898 0 +0.5 -0.1 od
48013 1001 1893 0 -1.0 -1.1 od
48013 1001 1882 1 +0.9 -0.2 od
48013 1001 1881 1 +0.9 -0.2 od
48013 1001 1880 1 +0.9 -0.2 od
48013 1001 1879 1 +0.9 -0.2 od
48013 1001 1872 1 +5.0 +3.9 d
Add this up.
“The highest accepted shade temperature perature recorded in , Australia is 127 degrees at Bourke (N.S.W.) on January 16, 1877. Since the in stallation of , the Stevenson Screen which is the universally accepted cover for recording shade temperature, the highest reading is 125 degrees at Bourke, recorded on 3rd January, 1909”
Western Herald (Bourke, NSW : 1887 – 1970) Friday 27 September 1935 p 4
Siliggy,
That newspaper extract would suggest a Stevenson Screen had been installed at Bourke before 1909?
Jennifer a bit more info
127 degrees F is 52.8 degrees C.
125 degrees F is 51.7 degrees C.
The BOM claim the hottest temperature for australia as 50.7 Degrees C in 1960.
Nothing this century has even come close to this let alone the older hotter temps of which these Bourke ones are not at all alone. There are many many more examples from back when the weather was more extreme over a hundred years ago.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/extremes/annual_extremes.cgi
“That newspaper extract would suggest a Stevenson Screen had been installed at Bourke before 1909?”
If it did go in just before that date then it would also be in tip top shape and accurate.
Jen,
Not Bourke, but a reminder that the BOM official history notes that the South Australian met service pre federation was an early adopter of Stevenson Screens – and that should have included the NT too.
Centennial Park’s Stevenson Screen.
http://blog.centennialparklands.com.au/centennial-park-weather-station/
And there’s this, which you probably all know about. Some newspaper articles sourced
in the comments as well.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=604
Thanks Beth. Interesting structure in Centennial Park.
While the Bureau obfuscates, I read late last night in a thesis by one of their own PhD students that:
“Stations in Western Australia were most commonly fitted with Stevenson Screens in 1896-1897, following a period where a smaller, single-louvred screen was used. In South Australia the Glaisher Stand was first replaced by the Stevenson Screen in 1887 and the last Stevenson Screen to be installed was at Cape Borda in 1908, but generally the Stevenson Screen was introduced in 1892. Most stations in Queensland had Stevenson Screens installed in 1888-1889. Some New South Wales country stations received Stevenson Screens in 1898, with another group of stations having them installed in 1901, and a further group in 1906-1998. Most Victorian stations had thermometer sheds replaced by Stevenson Screens around 1906-1908.” (page 44)
Typical of BOM to what to discard the WA data, when it was probably the best, given that state was one of the first to introduce Stevenson Screens in 1896-1897! And they were in place in Queensland by 1889.
Hi Jen
I need a break from what I’m doing at the moment (rainfall in SE Australia) so I’ll have a crack at Bourke. May take most of the day.
Ken
Thanks Ken!
Beth, are you an historian?
Do you know much about publishing in history journals? Is someone out there an historian who could give us a few pointers? Maybe we need to do is put a story together about the history of temperature recording, to show there is no justification historically for beginning the record in 1910. That the record can be extended back in time.
Which would be a best history journal?
Pity that Bourke’s Stevenson screen hadn’t been installed 1907. 1908 Jan was ferocious across Oz. This is what happened in Melbourne alone, as recalled in 1951:
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/23052688
Interesting that some in 1951 wanted to claim a “hottest ever” summer. Also worth remembering that there were even greater death tolls from the heat in 1895-6 and 1939. I recall a day in Feb 2004 around here that could have killed, but I guess it takes a succession of such days in high populations, as occurred in Jan 1960 in Sydney, or the south east of Oz in Jan 2009.
Never mind. The 1908 Bourke record would probably have been up for some creative expunging, even if we had it.
Jen,
Sounds like valuable documentation to clarify the record.
I am not a historian, did an Hons Degree in History at Melbourne Uni way back.
Someone I and others have had contact with at Climate Etc is climate historian
Tony Brown, ‘The Long Slow Thaw.’ (Judith Curry /2011/12/01) Tony has studied
CET records to their beginnings.
Jen,
Contacting The Institute of Public Affairs, re contacts might be helpful.
IPA, Level 2, 410 Collins St. Melb. Vic. 3000.
Clement Wragge was a furious adopter of Stevenson Screens. I’m guessing that there would have been plenty in Qld by late 19th century?
Robert,
I don’t recall specific mention of Qld and Stevenson Screens in that BOM history tome.
Some mentions of “Inclement Wragge” as I recall.
I might have to borrow it again and re-read – if it ever rains and I get time. Might not meet Jen’s timetable though.
https://www.google.com.au/#q=Inclement+Wragge+and+use+of+Stevenson+screens
The Journal ‘ Qld Instrument Book ‘ lodged in the National meteorological library of
the BoM indicates that most Qld stations introduced the Stevenson screen in 1889.
‘When Wragge was appointed Govt Meteorologist, by the late 1880’s Stevenson
screens had been installed throughout Qld. (Donaldson 1888.)
Siliggy quoted a couple of 50C+ at Bourke. I recall they were shown to be invalid years ago and that is why they are not in the table of BOM extremes. A bit of research is a good defence against looking stupid.
I recall, says Bazza. Justify yourself or you might look pretentious, even stupid.
Then again, I recall that the Bureau started scratching out data it didn’t like from about 1990.
http://www.waclimate.net/extreme-temperatures.html
Read the information at this link and it says that the 125F at Bourke was considered legit. because it was recorded in a Stevenson Screen. Then they started fiddling records and scratched it.
Check the reprints at
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/03/27/fraud-is-the-new-normal-for-top-australian-climate-scientists/
bazza. I am not afraid of either research or looking stupid. So feel free to give us a few leads to follow up. For example does you recollection stretch to also remembering the 123 degrees F (50.5 C) recorded at nearby Brewarrina on the same day also being dismissed? If you can shed some light on the justification (if there really is any) for those old high temperatures being wiped, please do. While you are at it please comment (if you can) on what effect dismissing a high temperature has on old averages and trends. Does it make the weather of the past appear less extreme?
I would also like to know which erroneous low temperatures you can “recall” being dismissed.
Pilliga Near Brewarrina recorded 123 F on the same day also.
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/80316601?zoomLevel=6
Goodooga Which is just North of Bourke reported 123 F and Brewarrina is reported at 124 F in some newspapers. http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/106439993?
After searching many newspapers now it seems there are three wildly different temps reported from Pilliga 121,118 and 113 but over 48 hours. So it could be a mix of days and private readings.