“So long as the tools a paradigm supplies continue to prove capable of solving the problems it defines, science moves fastest and penetrates most deeply through confident employment of the tools. The reason is clear. As in manufacture so in science – retooling is an extravagance to be reserved for the occasion that demands it. The significance of crises is the indication they provide that an occasion for the retooling has arrived.” Thomas Kuhn
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Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
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“The significance of crises is the indication they provide that an occasion for the retooling has arrived.” Thomas Kuhn
That would explain this: Russia lays down world’s largest icebreaker
The Arctic will be granted the highest ice class – 9, meaning the ship will be able to break ice in the Arctic area all year round. http://rt.com/news/world-biggest-icebreaker-russia-275/
That vodka must make their minds numb. Everyone knows it’s global warming.
Good performance by Marc Morano on CNN debate. He handles them easily.
http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/12/11/cnn-hosts-rare-live-contentious-global-warming-debate-marc-morano-vs-sierra-clubs-michael-brune-philippe-cousteau-jr-full-transcript-video-coming-soon-morano-so-record-cold-is-now-evi/
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2013/12/13/3911244.htm?site=northqld
We are seeing baby corals in some of the shallows and also in some of the deeper areas,” he said.
“It is showing that even though it has had multiple impacts in the last few years, it is able to bounce back.
“It has got that natural resilience to recover, provided it doesn’t get hit with too many other events.”
More evidence from a Swedish study that the Roman Warm period and Med WP were warmer than today.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bor.12003/abstract
The earlier Holocene optimum was much warmer than today as well.
Ryan Maue tweets about the heavist snowfall in Israel in 60 years.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/411511467511250944
Stop your fraud Neville – the Swedish results are restricted to the location studied.
Clearly the Israeli snowfall is exactly what you’d expect from an AGW disrupted system. When will deniers learn.
“Clearly the Israeli snowfall is exactly what you’d expect from an AGW disrupted system. When will deniers learn.”
As a straight out skep, i can only conclude that Israel, Turkey, Cyprus, Mongolia etc were due for all this cold and snow, and that after some milder winters pre-2009 the whole northern hemisphere has been due. (Israel had a similar December back in 1953). Mind you, there is no reason to think the winter has to continue this hard. Maybe things will warm a little in the New Year. Climate often works that way. But clearly, you can’t win with fundamentalists. All things must be folded into the Great Causation of AGW. If the impossible happened and the climate were to become stable, we would be informed that “this eerie calm is due to an AGW disrupted system”.
Belief=science. Doubt=anecdote.
“AGW disrupted system”
I just love the ingenuity of the luvvies.
A new term for every changing situation. This latest “change and disruption” seems to fit any situation.
Nope predicted years ago – https://ams.confex.com/ams/87ANNUAL/techprogram/paper_117372.htm
Science = science. Denial = obfuscation and anecdotes.
I predicted climate extremes like now years and years back. Snow, cyclones, droughts, floods, heatwaves, coldwaves…the lot, all extreme and with extreme swings, records broken etc. Would’ve put my house on it all. I also predicted periods of mild climatic conditions.
Can I have my Nobel now? Don’t tell me I have to share it with the billions of other people endowed with common sense!
As you said Robert.
Geezzz Lukey can’t even get his story straight, but I guess that’s what happens when these fools start telling porkies.
Remember Dr David Viner’s famous quote from 2000?
According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said. You fools have been found out and now invent more bizarre terms like climate disruption to help further the con.
Once it was just global warming but now they have to invent a new term just about every other year.
The Arctic methane time bomb is just more fraud and con tricks from the alarmists.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/13/defusing-the-arctic-methane-time-bomb/#more-98959
From another blog:
Solved the mystery!
The heating of the atmosphere caused the oceans to warm, so driving out CO2, which, in water, acts as a significant suppressor of heat gain. Now that the tipping point has been reached, the oceans now act as a “heat sponge” absorbing all the extra radiation returned by the CO2 in the atmosphere, so negating the heating of the atmosphere. One important aspect of this is that, without the benefit of CO2 in the water, the heat remains denser than water, and sinks to the lower levels, where it lurks, and becomes ever more sinister in its plot to destroy the world as we know it.
Simples!
Let’s hope everyone here has the time to read the about the latest corruption and fraudulent con games from the army of green con merchants.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2523726/Web-green-politicians-tycoons-power-brokers-help-benefit-billions-raised-bills.html#ixzz2nV84KSiQ
As they say follow the money and you won’t be too far from the truth.
It’s a good read Neville but what’s new?
Anyone seriously interested in AGW matters know this.
People like Luke and bazzer just dismiss it as ‘denialis’ smear.
Jennifer,
I posted the first several sentences of your PDF on competition in climate science — together with the link — at a small social networking site. Thanks for posting the link on another thread. Here’s my take, which I also posted. My only criticism is that you could have done a better job of promoting your AI forecasts. Read on.
This 3-page PDF is well worth reading. For those who don’t have the time, here’s my commentary.
Old saying: The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Most recently, Australia’s over-rated and over-funded Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) isn’t even offering pudding.
The current crop of General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for predicting/projecting climate change over time rely heavily on the Anthropogenic Global Warming hypothesis. This has been thoroughly falsified.
Example: The GCMs all predict a mid-to-upper tropospheric ‘hot spot’ over the tropics. If it exists, this hot spot does not lend itself to detection by radiosondes.
The computer results generated by the BOM’s POAMA program are GIGO (garbage in, garbage out). POAMA is engineered for failure. If you’re a farmer in Queensland, Australia, you could get a better seasonal rainfall forecast for your area simply by working out the average precipitation for the past 20 years, using an el cheapo, hand-held calculator.
If the General Circulation Models (GCMs) had some degree of validity, you’d expect to see some degree of long-term agreement in seasonal forecasts between these and the forecasts that Marohasy and Abbott make, using off-the-shelf Artificial Intelligence (AI) software. Even then, the AI approach would yield better results. Why?
POAMA is very ab initio. It assumes that the effects of hypothetical Anthropogenic Global Warming trump everything else.
More to the point, if there was a significant long-term warming trend, the AI program would not only pick it up, but would assign a proper weight to it. Marohasy and Abbott are too polite to mention this obvious fact.
On the other hand, if the POAMA forecasts are dead wrong, the divergence between these and the reasonably accurate AI forecasts made by Marohasy and Abbott will increase over time. Eventually, farmers and other people who use seasonal POAMA forecasts as a tool in their livelihoods will be hopping mad.
Borrowing from classical economic theory, and from Kuhn’s theory of scientific revolutions, Marohasy and Abbott argue that more healthful competition in the climate biz is in order. I’d go a step further.
The budget for the BOM should be slashed by 20% every year, until their forecasts out-perform the naïve, do-it-yourself forecasting that I mentioned earlier.
Instead of pudding, the BOM is serving multi-million dollar Shit on a Shingle. Queenslanders deserve better.
A very good source for anyone wanting the latest info on human co2 emissions.Certainly since 1990 to the present.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/15/remind-me-again-why-the-west-needs-a-carbon-tax/#more-99276
All the graphs and numbers once again prove that AGW mitigation is a total fraud and con . The developing country’s co2 emissions are soaring while the developed nation’s emissions are falling or flatlining.
OZ’s idiotic co2 tax is the most blatant fraud and con in our history and can never, make a jot of difference to the climate or temp at all. Period.
Dr David Viner’s forecast ( 2000) hasn’t looked worse. The USA has the most area covered by the white stuff since 2003. That means 53% is covered by snow, the most in 11 years.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/15/over-half-the-usa-covered-in-snow-the-most-in-11-years/#more-99299
The debt left by the clueless Labor govt is even worse than anyone imagined in september.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/how_did_labor_dare_do_this_to_us_how_greedy_were_voter_not_to_cry_enough/#commentsmore
What sort of stupid donkeys voted for these numbskulls in the first place and why would anyone ever want to vote for them again?
Interesting perspective Larry,
I would agree that we should be seeing an RIO and a CVP from BoM.
Who is paying them and who do they work for? They have attracted heavy investment and we would expect to see some measurable progress and returns on that investment.
If the GCMs are supposedly so much grander. . . why are we not seeing grand results?
But before I attract an abusive or sarcastic comment from the usual suspects. . .let me hasten to add that I like what BoM has achieved in the past and I like their radar images and satellite maps etc.
I miss the fact that we can no longer easily access the historical regional raw data and easily compare it to current regional raw data. Instead we’re presented with averages in pretty graphs. . . and even those are difficult to access for specific regions.
BUT! No shortage of CONCLUSIONS about the WHOLE of Australia.
As you highlight. . . the people who would want to use this information are not particularly impressed with BoM’s area of focus.
Keep at it Neville.
I find your collection of threads and comments much more enlightening than the drivelling unsubstantiated nonsense from the few alarmanistas, and particularly those who purport to be well qualified in the science …like the refugees from the Qld PS who seem to have smart turns of phrase that are entertaining for a while, then are just boring and repetitive…
…. but what has prompted me is that I happen to have stumbled across this beat up of 2009.
http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/press.html
Like the UK money grubbers, conflicts of interest are treated with contempt, and then incompetently probity audited… they are all like bees around honey pot.
And it is all around us.
Apart from Al Gore who is actively used by the WWF, (which says something about the WWF judgements). …the WWF haven’t even got the gumption to remove this from their web site:
http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/problems/people_at_risk/personal_stories/about_cw/cwscientists/
Notice something …many of the names in the former also appear in the latter. Yet more conflicts of interest.
Do any of these people act in our best interests, at any stage? … not a chance… and it will continue to go on, if we remain stupidly blind to what is being perpetrated in our name.
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/11/18/what-a-nasty-scandalously-rigged-system/
I don’t recall ever voting for the WWF and all their hangers on, nor do I ever recall the UN being part of any policy platform for any party at any time.
Isn’t it time we stood up to all these people and their incompetent use of our money?
The incompetence of the Australian various Labor Govt’s is just the start.
Quote Luke: “Clearly the Israeli snowfall is exactly what you’d expect from an AGW disrupted system. When will deniers learn.”
Also, ‘more’ from “exactly what to expect from (idiots who believe in a) AGW disrupted system”:
Global Warming Creating Anxious Fish [ http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=10484 ]
“According to The Atlantic Cities’s John Metcalfe a couple of Canadian researchers “doped a bunch of juvenile rockfish with an anxiety-provoking drug, and watched what happened.”
“Dude! Like, I dropped the acid in and he was all uhhnnn. Like he swam around, like, with no aim.”
What happened next transformed this mundane high school prank into genius. The “scientists increased the acidity in one tank to match the oceans’ expected pH level by the end of the century.”
“Dude! Like I dropped the acid in—the real acid, not, like, that acid acid, like that pH acid—and, like, he tried to hide!”
Fish in the acid bath swam more “erratically” say the scientists, who traced paths of the routes fish took.
Science marches on.
.
The complete List of Things Caused by Global Warming (Or “when will the deniers learn”)
[ http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm ]
Environmental damage caused by environmental flows
Water that was bought to save the environment in the Murray-Darling Basin may be damaging it.
A resident living on the banks of the Goulburn River says because of recent environmental flow events, he’s watching the banks of the river fall apart.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-16/nrn-envt-flow-damage/5158348
Good info Malcolm. BTW Nic Lewis and Ross McKitrick make good comments on climate sensitivity and the IPCC AR 5 level of confidence etc.
This is from Judith Curry’s Climate Etc blog.
Nic Lewis at ClimateAudit
Nic Lewis has a post Does the observational evidence in AR5 support its CMIP5 models’ TCR ranges? In the comments, McKitrick summarizes it:
One of the really remarkable points Nic makes here is that, just using numbers from the IPCC report itself, and applying their own formula for transient climate response, an estimate of around 1.3C is unavoidable. Yet most of the models they employ have TCR’s of 1.6 or higher, and quite a few are even above 2, implying way too much sensitivity to CO2 emissions. Yet the IPCC goes on to say things like “There is very high confidence that models reproduce the general features of the global-scale annual mean surface temperature increase over the historical period, including the more rapid warming in the second half of the 20th century, and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions.” (Ch 9 p. 3). The whole summary section of Ch 9 gives the impression that models and observations are beautifully in alignment. Something’s gotta give here.
Ms. Jen might be interested in this old link. Ya gotta love the internet. It never forgets.
Written 2007/04/21, modified 2008/12/17
Australia’s Murray Darling Basin is going downhill
Due to anthropogenic climate change, Australia’s Murray Darling Basin, where a large part of the country’s agricultural produce was once produced, is in a state of decline that will continue.
http://ramblingsdc.net/Australia/MurrayDarling.html
But, the gold is in the links. Example:
“Research into the climate of the last 30 years jointly by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (released Sept. 2007) has indicated that the drought is more likely due to a permanent change to the Walker circulation than just to a slow change from the drought producing El Nino back to the rain producing La Nina. Read about it on the ABC.”
Quite so. Read about it at the ABC: Sep 2007 – Hot, dry weather likely to worsen: study
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/25/2043238.htm
Why Global Warming Science is Nothing but Fraud
“Pretending to model a result while there is no starting point is total fraud, regardless of the unreliability of modelling. Covering up the absence of a real starting point is additional fraud. Publications on modelling, which is the entire basis of global warming science, do not describe methods; they only describe results. There is no way to determine reliability or meaning without knowing the methods. Descriptions will include numbers and equations, as if a method were known, but the ‘as ifs’ are never described. Such standards are fraud in science, because they leave no means of evaluation. Describing results without methods is nothing but a news blurb being published as if it were science.
It’s not a question of how the computer program works; it’s a question of what are modellers feeding into the program and why. They won’t say; and that’s a total fraud. The reason why they won’t say is because the atmosphere is so complex that there is no scientific analysis to determine what is happening within it. By not describing methods, frauds don’t have to admit that science is being replaced with total contrivance.”
http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/science-and-method/G-Novak-2013.php
Yes, handjive, the claims are on the record. Thing is, the idealogues of the CAGW
won’t notice or will overlook that their predictions have not eventuated,
As the astute Y Berra observed, humans jest ain’t good at predictin’. Inventin’
yes! Wheels ‘n steam engines ‘n rocket ships but predicting, no! Think Malthus,
Erlich, Club of Rome, some guy who said the little children will never ever see
snow again.
Predictors can’t know the unknown unknowns, Nassim Taleb’s black swan events
new technology game changers. What’s amusing is that Erlich et al , as Philip
Tetley study indicates, (ref N T) fail ter recognise, or they excuse, or perhaps
ferget their poor record in prediction and on they go … A more critical news
media would jog their memories.
A very good open letter by Bob Tisdale to a group of dopey movie stars and delusional fools who are making a new sci-fi series on CAGW.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/16/open-letter-to-the-executive-producers-of-years-of-living-dangerously/#more-99322
luke has linked to a ‘paper’ arguing that AGW will produce cold ‘spots’ or “cold-air outbreaks (CAOs)”; see:
https://ams.confex.com/ams/87ANNUAL/techprogram/paper_117372.htm
The ‘paper’ ignores Jet-streams and Shindell’s work:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/shindell_06/
Jetstreams work counter-intuitively and we don’t need AGW to explain some of the extremes of temperature. In a cooling world there is a lower temperature gradient between the equator and the poles; this reduces the power of the climate systems that move the heat pole-wards.
This in turn allows the circumpolar jet streams to expand equator-wards. This lengthens their path and wavelength and reduces their velocity. Then they are more susceptible to blocking by continental high pressure systems.
This explains why during the Maunder and Dalton minimums there did not seem to be a great reduction in average temperatures. There were however great frosts, capable of freezing rivers to a depth of eighteen inches, splitting oak trees three feet in diameter, causing the failure of winter crops, and then summer heat and drought causing the failure of spring plantings, with resultant famines.
All this is caused by the sun; as Shindell says:
“In our simulations, we find that the reduced brightness of the Sun during the Maunder Minimum causes global average surface temperature changes of only a few tenths of a degree, in line with the small change in solar output. However, regional cooling over Europe and North America is 5-10 times larger due to a shift in atmospheric winds.”
And:
“So a reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the planet leads to a weaker equator-to-pole heating difference, and therefore slower winds. The effect on surface temperatures is particularly large in winter. Because the oceans are relatively warm during the winter due to their large heat storage, the diminished flow creates a cold-land/warm-ocean pattern (Figure 3) by reducing the transport of warm oceanic air to the continents, and vice-versa.”
There, having rebutted luke, again, when he next posts I’m entitled to give him a serve.
For some hours now this blog has been ‘successfully’ sustaining an unusually bad spam attack. I appreciate that many comments are not posting. The backend is very slow/freezing so its not easy to find genuine comments from regulars amongst the hundreds of ‘pending’ spam that keep backing up. Apologies.
As a consequence of a sustained spam attack. Anyone wishing to post a comment at this blog will need to now first register with WordPress and get a username and password. I apologise for the inconvenient, but hope you will make the effort.
Sincere apologies, especially to those who have tried to register. Obviously there are still issues to sort out. I’m hoping to have everything sorted within the next hour or so. Jen
In all the excitement I can’t remember whether it was five shots or six.
But I did get to read Jen’s latest paper.
And don’t blame me – I don’t hack web sites. Deltoids blamed me for Denial of Service attacks there. Despite my assurances that only denialist tea party types and LNP voters do that, they didn’t accept my case. 🙁
We denialists, tea-party types have a government to support with out taxes, no time to hack websitea.
got nearly everything wrong in my prev post.
‘out’ = OUR
‘websitea’ = websites
Most likely my email addy as well.
My apologies to everyone who has tried to log in, and been unable to. I was wasting your time, and I apologise. The information I provided was incorrect. Not intensionally, but misinformation nevertheless about how to post comment.
Jonathan and Luke presumably got in because they have existing WordPress accounts. For everyone else, the blog should now be back to normal, but with some comments perhaps missing if they were posted yesterday. Apologies again.
After having to close everything down. Then being told that I would have to get ‘logs in’ and ‘captcha installed’. Then these not working. We now seem to be back to where we were before the attack, but just with the need for ‘captcha’.
And there will probably also be an invoice for me, for the technical support. So if anyone wants to donate now to help me out with this expense…
Banking Details
Bank: Commonwealth Bank,
Branch: Toowong, Queensland
BSB: 06 4129
Account Number: 00163175
Account Name: Jennifer Marohasy
Or post the cheque to: PO Box 1534, Yeppoon Q.4703 to Jennifer Marohasy.
There a several plug-ins to do what you want, most are free.
this is but one, and free
http://wordpress.org/plugins/simplr-registration-form/changelog/
I think the tech support misunderstood your intentions, nearly sure that wordpress does not have a user registration method built in, hence the third party plug-ins.
Don’t know how savvy you are in this area you may need some help locally, but should be easy to do what you wanted.
I’m not familiar with WordPress, sorry.
Capthcha is OK I guess but can be a real pain when one cannot read the text.
One hint, if you can’t read the text in the dark box, click on it (left button) and while keeping the button down drag it to a white or lighter area on your screen and it may become more discernible.
some small relief is on the way, you won’t know the name.
The sound option in Captcha seems to work quite well.
Does Gore ever get anything right? He claimed the Arctic could be ice free by now but the last 12 months have seen a big increase in ice extent.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/16/nature-proves-al-gore-wrong-again/
In fact an increase of 50% over the last 12 months.