Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Open Thread

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I believe that a scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy.
Richard P. Feynman

Flooding Faye 098 Kangaroo

Photograph of the kangaroo taken in the Central Murray Valley by Faye Ashwin [click on the image for a larger/better view].

Reader Interactions

Comments

  7. papertiger says

    thar is an incredible picture. I felt lucky to get a fuzzy edge of focus under exposed pic of a bird in my own yard, who as much as posed and mugged for the camera.

    This one has a kangaroo in mid leap and if you click for the close up you can see bugs crawling on his back.

    I’m so jealous.

  8. Debbie says

    Love the Feynman quote.
    It aint just scientists 🙂
    Great piece on OLO Jen. A HUUUUUGGGGE thanks from this MDB farmer/irrigator.
    Your persistence on this issue has kept it in the public sphere and more & more people are noticing that something is not right.
    The Feynman quote could be just as easily applied to many (not all) of the so called ‘experts’ who have foisted the MDBP onto us. . . particularly the economic modelling.
    Your comment at Jonova re the well known ‘environmentalist’ is truly frightening.
    Can you also repeat it here? My copy/paste is non existent at the moment as I am OS and using limited tablet time.

  9. Neville says

    Debbie is this the quote from Jennifer you were after?

    #14
    Jennifer Marohasy
    August 13, 2013 at 10:38 pm · Reply
    Eric,

    On the subject of empire building, one very prominent Australia environmentalist said to me at the height of the drought when our ABC was telling everyone about the drying Lake Alexandrina but never once showing the barrages holding back the Southern Ocean… now is not the time to draw attention to the barrages… right now we must be drawing maximum attention to the lack of freshwater because of upstream irrigation… when have effectively closed down irrigated agriculture because Australia is too dry a continent to sustain it… then we (the environmental movement) shall turn the spotlight on the barrages… then we shall campaign for their removal…

  10. Debbie says

    Yes it is Neville,
    Thank you.
    I wish that conversation had been recorded!
    Those comments by that ‘prominent Australian environmentalist’ are truly scary.
    Systematically shut down everything in the MDB from upstream to the bottom. . . and use parochialism, politics and ‘envoronmentalism’ to do it.
    And have the Aussie taxpayer pay for the privilege of these ‘environmental’ genius plans.

  12. Neville says

    Looks like there is a lot more natural variability within the world’s climate system and this could be one reason for the warming pause.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2013/08/climate-models-cannot-explain-why-global-warming-has-slowed/#more-29963

    German scientists like Hans Von Storch seem to be more prepared to accept this position. Also I think many scientists may consider that the sensitivity to increased co2 emissions is not as high as first thought.
    Spencer and Christy consider that the models have failed and Von Storch and others now seem to agree.

  14. Neville says

    Just listened to the usual stupid nonsense from the Climate institute on their ABC AM.
    These Labor supporters stated that the Coalition would need to spend at least an extra 4 billion $ to reduce co2 emissions.

    But they also added that they should spend perhaps 16 bn $ extra to do a proper job. But these fools must know that OZ could reduce emissions by 100% and there still would be no measurable change to climate or temp by 2100.

    I’ll link to the transcript when it is available. Unbelievable stuff from these true believers and religious fanatics.

  15. Neville says

    It’s nice to know what bankcard Beattie really thinks of Krudd and just a couple of months ago at that.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/beattie_absolutely_no_respect_for_rudd/

    It seems like he has the same opinion as the majority of federal labor pollies that have to serve under this nong.
    Don’t forget about one third of the previous cabinet resigned when he beat Gillard. But some of the Krudd haters ( now hypocrites) also remain in cabinet.

  16. Neville says

    A good post from Lomborg on the clueless renewable energy fantasy.

    http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-falling-share-of-renewables-in-global-energy-production-by-bj-rn-lomborg

    At the present time RN energy supplies about 13% of world energy and will perhaps increase to 14.5% in another 30 years. Just 1.5% increase.
    That’s after spending countless trillions dollars for a zero return and of course zip change to the climate or temp. Geeezzzzzzz.
    Even fools like Hansen think it’s a lost cause.

  17. Avatar photojennifer says

    [PLACED A WRONG THREAD BY HANDJIVE… ]

    FYI
    Dartmouth Dam to spill

    After a decade of drought and low inflows, Dartmouth Dam should spill by October.
    It would only be the sixth time in its 34-year history Dartmouth’s rocky steps have overflowed.

    The entire Murray Darling Basin storages are now 90 per cent full, with Hume Dam 91 per cent full.

    The state of the storages, the highest for more than a decade, gives Victorian irrigators confidence of at least two more years of full water allocations.

    http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2012/06/13/494291_water.html

  18. Neville says

    I should have added above that solar and wind only make up 0.33% of the world’s energy.

    Some of Lomborg’s numbers in that article are mind bogling. We’ve certainly become a barking mad crowd following this loopy wind and solar delusion.

  19. handjive says

    Soz Ms. M for wrong thread.

    Was watching ABC breakfast this morning and weather person mentioned it, so I googled.

    Thought of you immediately after reading the carp post other day..

    Didn’t even look for open thread.

    Considering the “Angry Summer Report” (now 3 years old), I was surprised to hear this good news.

    (quote: The southwest and southeast corners of Australia are likely to remain drier than the long-term average or become even drier.
    http://climatecommission.gov.au/report/the-critical-decade-2013/)

  20. Debbie says

    Yes Handjive,
    Now they’re telling us it’s an 80% chance of wetter than average spring for SE OZ in 2013.
    If that’s the case. . . the dams will definitely spill.
    But. . . . according to Luke. . . . it’s a radical new approach now. . . (aka a jazzier high tech presentation of the info). . . but also apparently it must be too difficult for people who would conceivably want to use it. . . because it’s ‘ over their heads’.
    He doesn’t seem to be able to explain whose higher heads he thinks all this radical new approach is designed for.

  22. Larry Fields says

    Comment from: papertiger August 14th, 2013 at 11:19 am
    “thar is an incredible picture. I felt lucky to get a fuzzy edge of focus under exposed pic of a bird in my own yard, who as much as posed and mugged for the camera.”

    I second the motion. A truly outstanding photo! It looks just like my dog, Spot. (California humor)

  24. Beth Cooper says

    Say, Neville,

    Creating a model simulation of Earth’s climate ain’t easy. It’s not a clock-work
    system yer know. There’s clouds and feedbacks and other inter-relationships
    on a macro and micro-scale and look, you try it!

    A cheesed off climate modeller 🙁

  25. Neville says

    Beth I’m a bit confused by your jumpin and jivin. So have you been a climate modeler? And yes I unerstand about the other variables/inputs that impact the climate, I’ve been yapping about it for years on this blog.

    My point is that we should be spending our now borrowed funds on adaptation and more R&D. Yes by all means try and develop better modeling but don’t fool ourselves that reducing co2 will be the best tool to reduce temp and somehow mitigate AGW.

    Clearly it doesn’t work and can’t work because China and India refuse to play ball. BTW that’s only if we all believe that co2 is the super driver forcing us down the road towards CAGW.

  26. Minister for Common Sense says

    Hi Beth,

    You may be cheesed off at the way people get stuck into your climates models on the grounds that it is hard work, with great complexities and uncertainties, then why dont you and your colleagues do more to:

    a) refrain from inducing Govts, ie tax payers, to make substantial investments to ameliorate the harm these self same models are claimed to indicate will befall us, and,

    b) publish more papers in your precious journals and indeed the general media to explain these huge uncertainties, and,

    c) take the completely foolish serial exaggerators people like Flannery,Steffen et al aside, and give them the benefit of your wisdom….before we spent mega billions on de- sal plants that now lie idle

    I have absolutely no sympathy for academic climate modellers…. they have been at the fore front of the idiot GW campaign along with their bedfellows in greeny NGO;s …and its now all starting to unravel and be seen as just another beat up.

    Too late to cry oh poor us.

  27. Beth Cooper says

    Er …guess i should have added the irony tag ..
    .
    I am not a modeller or advocate of model. The reverse.
    On ‘Climate Etc’ I rail against models, fer example:
    (CE Week in Review 18/11/12 104am) and often since, lol.

    ‘Modellers in cloud towers
    Wiling away the tenured hours,
    Tend ter fergit, models jest ain’t
    Reality.

    Silk-shirted coteries in whispery corridors
    Of power do not concern themselves
    With uncertainty in science. Their mission is
    Consensus.

    A call ter action. Time ter bid the modellers
    Enter the political fray as advocates.
    Cloud tower join the corridors of power!
    Make the proletariat sit up, take notice and
    Obey.

    (And pay!)

    Beth-the serf.

  28. Luke says

    Debbie – my barbed comments are for making silly disparaging remarks on material that you are far from acquainted with. Hitherto recent months when POAMA (a GCM) has been released for the official public Seasonal Climate Oulook (SCO) BoM used statistical relationships based on ENSO and Indian Ocean SSTs.

    But as we know there are many more factors at play in Australian climate – IOD, SAM, STR etc etc (and a global warming signal)

    The science suggests that development of a full GCM – looks like this Debs – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_climate_model would produce better skill.

    Hindcasting testing says it does better. We’ll see now in real forecast mode. All of these systems are not 10/10 things – they are 6-7 out of 10 at best and sometimes no skill. If you want to use them get EDUCATED or be disappointed. If you some trivial level of involvement stay away and don’t use them.

    If you’re serious you’d be right into material like this http://poama.bom.gov.au/poama_workshop.shtml

    BTW if anyone ever gets to 10/10 they’ll have gone private enterprise made a squillion and you won’t know.

    I asked before do you know what “perfect knowledge” is in terms of framing a decision analytic. Of course you don’t (and you just droned on with more Deb questions) – it simply says for example if you had say a rice crop model and you were experimenting with historical forecasts in hindcast mode on cropping decisions – (are you with me Debs or thinking of whipping up a bunch of lammies) – “perfect knowledge” would be “God mode” and knowing exactly what the coming season’s climate would be – i.e. 100% knowledge. That’s as good as you can get. So the improvement gain to be made is how your current position moves towards (hopefully that knowledge frontier – as good as you could ever get.

    However even with “perfect knowledge” it doesn’t mean that the season will be benign or kind – could be drought or flood.

    Seasonal forecasts won’t make it rain ! or stop raining. Some people forget. It’s not the forecast’s fault.

    BTW serf girly – it’s not about consensus – it’s about your LEPS score or cross-validation statistics – jack-knife that !

  29. Neville says

    Here’s the latest Roy Morgan polling for the federal election. I think this is too high for LNP and latest Galaxy at 52% LNP and Labor 48% is probably too low.

    But the polling in marginals is very good for LNP and bad for Labor. Beattie Qld and Lindsay in NSW shows big increase in LNP support.

    For the Poll nerds

    This telephone Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%. The primary vote is L-NP 52%, ALP 31%, Greens 9% and Independent/Others 8%. Of those surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.

    This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of August 12/13, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 569 electors.

  30. Robert says

    “(and a global warming signal)”

    They have to squeeze it into brackets these days. Damn! Can’t it have its own dedicated button on the kiddie climate console, and its own acronym? I know GWS has another meaning these days…but that lot have trouble even beating the Demons. Let’s at least workshop it.

    Give me decision analytics over lammies, every time. GCM over CWA! A lammie lasts a week if you’re lucky, and starts to lose its coconut after a couple of days. You can keep the latest theories on climate for up to five years…and even then you get guaranteed replacement (with the Peer Review Seal of Quality).

    Anyway, gotta zip, folks. Airport beckons. Airports are my supercells. They suck my thought bubbles up, up, and away.

  32. sp says

    So called “climatoligists” pretend to model what conditions will be like in 50 – 100 years time but cant get it right for the next 3 – 6 months. “climate” is a non-linear coupled chaotic system – our “modellers” are assured of many years of “research” without producing any useful output, but are happy to jump on a political bandwagon and beat people about the head for their “carbon sins” and “carbon footprint”. hopefully abbott will dismantle these “institutions” – like the Climate Institute, et al. I dont think we need buildings full of “climatologists” – feeding on taxpayer funds – off with their heads – they should be treated with the same contempt as the nutjob on the corner with the “the end is nigh – repent ye sinners”” sign around the neck. They have had their snout in the trough long enough – time for them to get a real job and earn a living like everybody else – Lukes grunting about the “advancement of science” is just that – grunting – grunting to get the last few mouthfulls before the whole scam is destroyed. Roll on the election, and the day the whole AGW scam is destroyed completely, and after that I hope Flannery’s and kin are run out of town and never employed again.

  33. sp says

    Says it all:

    ““…Some of the octopuses in the ocean can’t breathe from gas pollution … I started off my poster design of drawing the octopus first and wanted to make it look as if he was dying. Then I drew dead coral coming and surrounding him like there’s no escape from the acid ocean…”
    — entry in a Victorian schools contest for “ocean acidification” art

    Brainwashing of Australian children and teens about climate catastrophism is a normal part of the education landscape. But here’s a new twist. Could green lobby groups pay students and enlist teachers with handsome cash awards for spruiking the alarmist credo?”

    http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2013/08/scaring-kids-for-a-greener-world

  35. Luke says

    Well Robert – I didn’t want to upset you hence the brackets – but it’s a bit of a wake up call when you say “fuck me – my index has a 30-40 year trend in it”. I wonder if that will bugger up my stats forecast – then it begins….. next minute you’re a bedwetting warmist

    The reason to go the GCM is that lurking doubt with all stats forecasters that the future may not be a representative sample of the past – are you with me Robby boy. Wake up Debs.

    sp’s off on the ol’ can’t predict the weather so the climate can’t be done. Well climate ain’t weather and google boundary condition vs initialization problems. Why do we bother Robby. So many dickheads – such little time.

  36. Luke says

    sp – don’t worry about the little kiddies – they’re trading drugs at big lunch. STEM education (science technology engineering and maths) is down the toilet mate. Everyone’s is doing law, business degrees and hair dressing. Only nerdy dickheads do science. So I think they’re unaffected by the green enviro porn. And Abbott is about to get elected and say “it all crap” so don’t worry.

  37. Luke says

    Hey sp – you’re not even an Aussie so STFU and keep out of our politics. You grub.

    No deni-an
    When the oceans are fry-in
    Dispell your dis bell leaf
    When der sceptiks are underfeet
    You’ll be cry in
    When der coral reefs r dye in

    Luke the Bogan (age 10)

  38. Robert says

    ” are you with me Robby boy. ”

    Er, no. But I’m sure it’s all worse than we thought.

    No more naughty substances for you, Lukey boy. Horlick’s time. Beddy-byes now, mummy’s little white rapper.

  40. el gordo says

    ‘the future may not be a representative sample of the past’

    Tru dat … its chaos out there.

  41. sp says

    Gee – 3 responses from Luke especially for me – I must have hit a nerve – truth hurts eh Supercell.

    Not an Aussie???? Please explain (apologies Pauline) – I will be voting your mob out in a few weeks Lukie boy, and hopefully putting you out of a job.

    Thanks for showing your weak point – will know where to aim from now on.

  42. Beth Cooper says

    Yeah, Al gordo,
    Five-year-plans-even, and fifty
    … more so … takin’ a — leap
    in the dark is no guarantee.
    Do not fergit the words
    of Nassim Taleb on humanitee’s
    somewhat- un-in-spirin’ record
    of pre-dickt-shun — it ain’t good. (
    Bts

  43. sp says

    Luke – your not a bed wetting alarmist – just a bed wetter, alarmism is simply your excuse for lack of control, bladder or otherwise – maybe give up the Horlicks? Maybe just give up!

  45. Neville says

    Even Newspoll has the much hated????? Abbott and the Coalition pulling further ahead.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/labor_plummets_and_it_could_get_worse/#commentsmore

    This will be very disappointing for the Abbott/Coalition haters on this blog. We’re told that they respect Rudd for holding an opinion that is in direct contrast to his and Labor’s actions.
    Work that out if you can, it’s way beyond my simple common sense test. But that’s the way the religious mind works I suppose.
    Just proves how easily otherwise rational people can be conned because they have lost the ability to think clearly even when the evidence could easily be understood by an intelligent five year old.

  46. sp says

    Hopefully my vote on 7 Sept will remove junk scientists and their organisations from the Australian political landscape.

    I encourage others to do the same – vote them out.

    Perhaps Australian science will then return to more useful activities instead of debating how many angels can dance on the head of a (carnon free) pin.

    Imagine a future without carbon footprints, or the wasted effort of searching for “forcings”.

    Vote them out – and make junk scientists do some real work for their daily bread, instead of scaring kiddies.

    Imagine a future where voters are not told carbon is a pollutant.

    Vote them out …………. and make Luke earn a living like everybody else.

  48. Luke says

    But I’m already unemployed as you know. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA and independently wealthy – remember Q1 !! HAHAHAHAHAHA

    Really sp – you’re such a bore. Just a parrot droning on – at least Neville is interesting. Anyway I think you should threaten hard working scientists directly so they can drop you. Say it to their face and see how you go (punk).

    Anyway alas for you I just heard Abbott is actually increasing climate funding – so perhaps it’s a good idea to vote him in. Just do it.

  49. Luke says

    Neville – I don’t get it – wouldn’t you be even more worried if it happened naturally?

  50. Luke says

    Here you go sp the clown – http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/labor-pledges-585m-to-improve-forecasting-of-extreme-weather-20130814-2rwor.html

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA – they’re already well provisioned and the Coalition are in full support. You must be reduced to self-harm reading this – HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    sucked in !

    (BTW KuknKat taught me the HAHAHAHAHAHAHA – but he goes for longer – I like KuknKat actually – until you he’s very intelligent – for a sceptic).

  53. el gordo says

    More funding for BoM is a good Plan B, but the illegitimate marriage of BoM and CSIRO should end…. and the Dept of Climate Change must be dismantled.

  54. Robert says

    I live in dread of Abbott’s aimless tree-planting ceremonies. I know, I know, wallabies have to eat, I just hate tree planting ceremonies. But any indulgence of the good old BOM for the sake of the good old cockies would be really naive. Do the Lib-Nats really believe places like the BOM and CSIRO are still headed by people from the days of Smiley Gets a Gun and Uncle Cyril’s Easter Show ribbons? No. They are staffed with corporate politicians and corporate thinkers, just like the Coca Cola Company. They are also people with doctorates, but just come up my way and I’ll show you some very funny people with Masters and Doctorates in all kinds of things ending in the words “Sciences” or “Studies”. They published!

    Here’s a climate disaster prediction, long term and free of charge. The regrowth from actual climate change in much of Eastern Oz post 2007 will turn into combustibles on a terrifying scale within the next decade. Severe El Nino/Monsoon failure conditions – like those of the early 1790s or early 2000s or take-your-pick – will do the rest. Once everybody just knew that, without connecting things to cloudiness near the Date Line or drought in India. Now we wait to be told what everybody just knew. Like that’s gunna help.

    Climate Sorta Scientists have already told us that stuff is worse than we thought and will only increase in severity and frequency, and they could be right. Imagine a national scale drought (this is Australia, stupid) or a freak wet like 1950…and we really are depending on rickety whirlygigs and rusted out desals. To top it off, we have people like David Jones and that inevitable absurdity of modern life, the Fairfax Environmental Reporter, to lecture us on what any Aussie bar fly or cab driver could once have told you for free.

    Gimme a break.

  55. sp says

    ooooh I have hit a nerve with Luke – saving the dildo could be your next cause

    Good posts Neville – keep em coming.

    Yes – dismantle the Dept of Climate Change.

  58. Debbie says

    Seasonal forecasts won’t make it rain. . . . not the forecasters’ fault”
    And. . .
    The lecture re ‘perfect knowledge’.
    And you accuse me of making disparaging remarks?
    Seriously?
    I also note you don’t seem to know where these ‘higher heads’ are or who or what you think all this information is designed for if you believe it is ‘over the head’ of someone like me?
    I wonder if you really know much at all about the practical application of all this data Luke? Your rice example smacks of severely limited knowledge. You perhaps don’t understand how the modeling with it’s 1:1000 event smack bang in OCT/NOV 2006 (ie middle of Spring ) has created perverse outcomes in allocation announcements and also resulted in a profligate waste of water?
    You seem to be far more enamoured with HOW it is put together rather than WHY we might need it or use it or any hard evidence that it creates efficient, streamlined or mutually beneficial outcomes?
    It is, after all, supposed to be a public service and it is, after all, funded by the public.

  59. Luke says

    Well there you have it Debs – Robert says ask the taxi driver about irrigation system design. All you need are a few anecdotes.

    Debs – your response shows you are totally disingenuous – what I said above was actually about helping you ascertain the value of running or not running a forecast. Your response shows you are a twit. Married well I’m sure. Lucky that. Imagine having to do extension with idiots like yourself. I pity your regional guy having to put up with lammie brains. BTW I didn’t even give a rice example – that would take working with you and assuming a base level of intelligence – and I’d rather chew my arm than do that.

  61. sp says

    Sydney Morning Herald 2008

    “Not long after that the founder of Planet Ark, Jon Dee, and the Australian entertainer Olivia Newton-John, were also mulling over the plight of the land.

    Climate change provides even greater need to plant more trees. It is estimated every tree can absorb up to one tonne of carbon in its lifetime.

    “Nine out of 10 people are concerned about the future risks, the impact that climate change is going to have on Australia’s kids,” Dee says. “There are some easy things we can do, like changing the light bulbs and replacing shower heads, but of all the things you can do, probably the most satisfying is to go out and plant a tree.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/a-change-that-is-growing/2008/07/22/1216492455076.html

  62. Robert says

    “Robert says ask the taxi driver about irrigation system design. All you need are a few anecdotes.”

    Put that up there sp’s non-Australian nationality. Maybe, in some trivial, merely practical sense, it’s not true. Maybe I never said any such thing. Maybe the comment was never made by anyone, never existed. It doesn’t matter. Our Green Betters were born right, which relieves them of the burden of ever having to be accurate. If the past annoys them, they abolish the past. If the dogma isn’t fitting present reality, they adjust reality, not the dogma. The future, of course, has the wonderful property of never contradicting. Expect our Green Betters to speak most fluently and confidently about what has not happened yet. Silly skeptics can’t go there, can they?

    Imagine being a lammie brain farmer and having “regional guy” Luke – complete with beard, hipster sarcasm and sorta sciency patter! – willing to work with you, though he’d rather chew his arm off.

    Oh well, even if everything goes wrong (it will) you have the comfort of knowing that Regional Guy Luke is never actually wrong. By definition. He is heir to the truth, above mere results and accuracy. His truth is layered, nuanced and well beyond the comprehension of your lamington brain. So don’t argue.

    You don’t mess with the Supercell.

  63. Debbie says

    Luke,
    go back to previous page and re read your comment at 3:52(!!) am. Maybe the time of day meant you forgot that you mentioned say ‘a rice model’? 🙂
    Considering your attitude, I sincerely hope you’re NOT involved in extension work sweetie pie.
    We actually have a good working relationship with our agronomists and extension officers from DPI. The ones who actually live and work in the region do indeed GEDDIT. 🙂
    I did marry well BTW and so did my husband.
    I’m still noting you have failed to answer my question.
    So right back at you re ‘disingenious’ 🙂
    You have continuously claimed that all this amazingly complex data from BoM is over my head because I’m just too dense to understand it.. . & therefore according to you. . . unable to use or appreciate it.
    You seem to have forgotten that I do not lack an education. . . nor does my husband. As Robert highlights above. . . you appear to believe that you could run my business more successfully as you have the benefit of some type of undisclosed but definitely far superior knowledge and understanding of these things?
    So Luke. . . if it is ‘over the head’ of people like me. . . people who work in the real environment/weather/climate 24/7/356. . . who do you suppose it is designed to assist?

  64. Debbie says

    & BTW. . .
    Robert said nothing of the sort.
    His reference to taxi drivers et al was about the style of ‘lecturing’ that us taxpayers are being charged for. . . GEDDIT?
    We can indeed access the same free of charge.

  65. Debbie says

    How funny!
    Went for a visit to deltoid to find some classic examples of that lecturing style.
    You won’t believe who has been doing some drive by shooting there and lecturing the deltoids that the GCMs have essentially failed to deliver.
    Also note EG is still toying with the deltoids.

  66. Robert says

    What we are sick of is being told about weather events and climate trends that are old as if they were new. Farmers like Deb and hubby know better. Dorothea Mackellar knew better. And all Australians of my generation lived with the certainty of flood, drought and freak weather, and long cycles of wet and (more often) drought which never seem to end, which test and form the national character.

    What we are sick of is valuable work by people like Walker and Mantua being used to confect a kiddie console which treats very rough and poorly understood observation sets as if they were simplistic “mechanisms” causing “events”. Most cliche notions about PDO and ENSO are childishly wrong, and a child can see it. It’s good to have sats, radar, ENSO info etc etc. It’s not good what our Green Betters are doing with it.

    When we see the horrific bungling of the klimatariat, it’s clear that the problem is not farmers, scientists or technology in general. The problem is the mouldy, self-loathing Old Left, which has come back dressed in the robes of the scientist preaching free markets and Adam Smith, trying to convince us that this time it will be different. Every time they pretend to be reasonable and open, it’s to deliver their message of CAGW in a different package, hoping we’ll buy. Meanwhile, money which ought to be invested in agriculture, water, and conservation is flushed down the drain (see Timmy’s Geo, SA wind, water buy-backs, Henbury, Murray barrages, desal etc) or just handed over to scoundrels in the other hemisphere who should have been locked up after 2008.

    Tying our energy policy to Europe with its sly manipulations and age old hatreds. Yeah, that’ll work. Why not just make a bonfire of Aussie dollars? Or mulch ’em, if you’re worried about the carbon.

  67. Luke says

    And we’re sick of handing out billions in drought aid to know-alls who being “masters of climate” shouldn’t need it.

    “which test and form the national character.” noting farm suicides and soil down to the B horizon in the Gascoyne

    Robert just another load of tea party drivel from you. What a great diatribe of rot.

    “It’s good to have sats, radar, ENSO info etc etc. It’s not good what our Green Betters are doing with it.” what sort of rank moronic drivel is that? Get off the hooch !

    It really is just grandpa Robert with his set piece philosophy and set piece homsey fucking little anecdotes that don’t actually help except for an interminable history lesson from which nothing is learnt nor derived.

    A nihilistic netherworld where the 1950s was a good as it got.

  68. sp says

    Always easy to tell when Supercell is losing the plot / arguement – the number of F words increase.

    Potty mouth.

  69. Robert says

    Only billions in drought aid? This is Australia. We need to up that amount.

    They can’t get over the fact that this is a prosperous country forged by common people who improvised and persisted. If someone fails or falls short, it’s an indictment of “the system”. Stop farming in Oz because there are erosion probs and suicides and buy food from overseas…where there are erosion probs and suicides.

    Our Green Betters still think that they should own the game, don’t they? Reminds me of an intense left-wing intellectual I knew, who took up punting as a mathematical and mental exercise, believing that if some yobs could do it with success, he would make serious money. Do you need to hear the end of this one?

    The same kind of people who made the 1950s good are making the present era good. The same self-loathers who wanted to botch it then want to botch it now: shrieking juveniles and cranky old Trots, clinging to the shreds of their youth.

    Anyway, Supercell, I’m out of here till you tone the language down. I enjoy the sledging and heavy hits but the degrading stuff is not my scene. Maybe take that over to Deltoid.

  70. Debbie says

    Luke,
    I think Robert is right. . . Your current tone is probably better suited to deltoid. . . just saying.
    Your ‘billions in drought aid’ has been done to death here and is just a diversionary tactic on your part.
    As in. . . . BORING Luke BOOOOORRIINNGG!!! ZZZZZZzzzzzzzzz.
    You could consider answering the question instead of dodging and spraying.
    Who do you believe all this super duper upgraded presentation of weather/climate data is designed to service and assist?
    You keep claiming it’s far too difficult for tertiary educated farmers (like me) and by association other professions like building, transport/logistics, mining etc.
    I would reasonably expect these are the businesses/people/professions who would want to use the info and who would expect value from the info. . . wouldn’t you?

  71. el gordo says

    ‘Your current tone is probably better suited to deltoid. . ‘

    I second the motion, he’s a shining light of reason in that swamp.

  72. Luke says

    No be fudged – have a look at yourselves – It’s the unrelenting nihilistic cynicism. The tiresome anti-green tirade when the nearest green thing is the gum leaves. The ongoing cold war against a faux enemy.

    And after his own outburst of “degrading stuff” Robby is now a widdle bit unhappy. Don’t see you telling Mr Nasty snake venom sp to cool it do we?

  73. Debbie says

    Luke,
    please define what you mean by ‘anti green’.
    I do believe that’s yet another sweeping, unfounded, judgmental statement and another boring diversionary tactic on your part.

  78. Nevile says

    Hanson Young and the Greens have sold out to big coal.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_greens_sell_out_to_big_coal_to_save_hanson_young/

    They are now preferencing Palmer’s party before Labor and the Coalition. Can you believe these Green liars and HIPPOS, they’re right up there with Rudd/Gillard’s Labor Gore, Combet, Flannery, etc.
    Liars and con merchants the lot of them. Let’s hope she loses her senate seat, because it would be a well deserved outcome.

  79. Neville says

    Labor’s PNG solution is a disaster after just one month. This has to be one of the biggest jokes of Labor’s election campaign.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/rudds_png_success_just_2764_boat_people_in_a_month/

    Just imagine being stupid enough to change your vote on the basis of this idiotic idea? PNG’s PM has already said this can’t work because it’s almost reached capacity and the locals don’t want them.
    He also stated that they will eventually be resettled in OZ. How long before the OZ electorate wake up to this hoax? Soon I hope.

  80. Neville says

    Seems like my post on Hanson Young and the Green’s sell out to Palmer’s big coal was too close to the bone and has now disappeared.

  83. Debbie says

    This one Luke?
    http://www.managingclimate.gov.au/
    I’m not sure what that has to do with the ‘anti green’ question?
    My assessment of this program and the people who work in it is that they seem to fighting for some relevance in amongst all the noise and in amongst all the circling hungry sharks.

  86. Robert says

    Good to see you’ve modified your tone, Luke. I don’t mind you thrashing out but I do mind the obscenities on a blog that is neither yours nor mine.

    In fact, I don’t know what GRDC is and I’ve decided not to find out. Who knows which links of yours I’ll read, and which ones I’ll leave? Of course, who knows which links of yours you will read?

    The important thing for you is being able to brandish an acronym or other such pomposity to make you feel a bit sciency and in-the-know. Being as fond of you as I am, there is no way I am going to deny you such pleasures. At our age, old feller, we should get all the fun we can.

    Hey, Supercell, what about our Bulahdelah Tornado that wrecked a million trees on New Year’s Day, 1970! It was worse than we thought. I guess I’m terribly complacent about hurricanes in historic hurricane belts and tornadoes in Tornado Alley…but Bulahdelah? The family had just driven our Dodge Phoenix through the place two weeks before.

    I dunno. Everything’s worse than we thought. They should do something about everything. Especially the extreme stuff.

  87. Luke says

    Well only words Robert – and in moderation an indicator of extreme annoyance. But point taken.
    Don’t you think it’s interesting that sp would call me potty mouth get take pleasure if he could get me sacked. Jeez – how horrid and you all let him do that with gay abandon. Pretty violent type of threat to try to directly destroy someone’s livelihood. Yet you’re all concerned about expletives?

    Proportionality is?

    GRDC is Grains R&D Corporation – and see Robby you have to wonder why I tell you things? You should think is he trying to do a swiftie/win/spin/prevail or is there an object lesson. (well may 30% of the time). GDRC run by growers for growers obviously thinks deeply about their investment in climate risk management and has done a review. So the object lesson for all your “greenie” ranting is that you are a mile out ! (on some things) – it’s about some aggies doing focussed investment trying to derive benefit from new knowledge. But hey you don’t need an new knowledge coz stuff just happens. You’re content in that.

    My disappointment is that Debs who should be interested thinks that a mention of perfect knowledge and decision analytic is somehow an insult and slags me for it? Ever thought of exploring an issue? So one throws a few expletives. Truck me !

  88. Debbie says

    Yes Luke,
    Along with Robert, I am also thankful you have raised the tone a little.
    Of course I am aware of the Grains Research & Development Committee…but I suggest that you try and lay off the acronyms if they’re not likely to be well known here.
    Most of the contributors here are not cereal growers and would therefore not be au fait with the acronyms of the numerous Govt organisations and QANGOS that are involved in the cereal industry.
    I could play the same game and give you RIRDIC or HSI or NICWER or YAHS or WGMB or RWM or GVWW or SRI or RGA or NSWIC or NFF or CEWH or SEWPAC and heaps of others…and you would have to either ask me what some of them mean or go to google and find them….or fudge it and pretend you know when you don’t.
    I think that Robert is probably right and it’s a very poor form of communication.
    The GRDC do a lot of good work…but so far in this particular space (ie climate change) I’m sorry to say that it is much more to do with accessing federal funding than adding any significantly improved value or benefit to cereal growers.
    I would respectfully suggest that you could perhaps ask yourself WHY(????) MCVP is quite clearly struggling to gain relevance and failing to get much take up from the demographic they claim they want to service.
    It’s very easy to blame the farmers….but I can assure you they are not the problem…they are not doing anything particularly bad or wrong…and they know it.
    Blaming them or haranguing them will only achieve counter productive or perverse outcomes.
    It amuses me that you appear not to be able to understand that the vast majority of people who work in the Agriculture sector have always, always done everything they possibly can to become more efficient and deliver results. They are in fact one of the most law abiding and generally agreeable demographics in Australian society as well as one of the most trusted. 2 recent independent surveys put Australian farming families right up alongside professions like doctors in the ‘most trusted’ categories.
    In the short history of Agriculture in Australia…Australian Farmers have always strived to deliver what has been expected of them.
    One of the biggest mistakes that the Green movement has made (IMHO) is their attempt to demonise Australian Farmers….and I think they’re starting to realise it.

  90. sp says

    Luke – called you a potty mouth because of the F word – hope you dont talk to your mother that way?

    As for you being sacked – i hope my vote contributes to the “climate establishment” being dismantled and if you are part of that i hope you go – not just because you are part of the snouts in the trough brigade, but because you are smug, intolerant and abusive.

    i do hope Abbott is only paying lip service to AGW and dismantles the entire artifice. I am tired of warmists impacting just about every aspect of my life – especially at work – “sustainability officers” = snout troughers, time for them to get a real job and do something useful also.

    The entire AGW scam has diverted too much money for no benefit to society – other than the benefit of a few smug, intolerant and abusive troughers – people will look back at this period in history and ask “how did they get away with it / why did we let it happen”?

  91. Robert says

    People going along with a bunch of climate hooey to keep their funding? So that’s why they call ’em quasi-autonomous. What a naughty world it is! I feel as appalled as Police Commissioner Norman Allan, the day they had to tell him there was prostitution in Kings Cross.

    And we really thought the GRDC wanted to explore issues and design analytics. Bad QANGO!

  94. Beth Cooper says

    Re Mike Kelly’s comment posted by Neville, 20/07

    So sad, Mike Kelly, that the kiddies don’t git ter vote fer their fuchur,
    allowed ter vote ter prevent Oz becomin’ a land uv sandy mountains,
    death vallies and saline sea-shores. Hmm … a new ‘Great Southern
    Land’ song called for. I’m offerin’ a prize.

    Er, Mike Kelly, might yer call yer comment an example of Argumentum
    ad Misericordium? Heh here’s another one:

    According ter Treasury estimates , Labor’s ETS would cost Australia
    $1,345 billion dollars ter 2050. That’s not jest ter be a cost imposed
    on every man and woman in Oz, but every child livin’ in Australia will
    bear that fuchur cost as well.

  95. Robert says

    “Labor’s ETS would cost Australia $1,345 billion dollars ter 2050.”

    Hey, serf, don’t forget we’re tied in to a European price. You don’t get to withdraw your arm from that piranha pool with any flesh left. Tell those starry-eyed optimists at Treasury that unless we can ally ourselves to Germany and Poland against France and the PIIGS, we’d better start building those nukes yesterday. And a dam on the Franklin is a must, even if it upsets the doctors’ wives. If we achieve all that, maybe we’ll get out of it for $1,345 billion dollars.

    Forget the invisible hand of the market. If Rudd gets in (not impossible) and an ETS goes ahead, it’s just a matter of time before our coal exports get counted, and that invisible hand becomes a sophisticated and nuanced European fist.

    Anyway, I look forward to Mike Kelly’s plan for his low-carbon war against China, India, Korea, Taiwan etc. It is about carbon and not money, right?

  96. Luke says

    “but because you are smug, intolerant and abusive.” says sp who from day one has been …….

  97. Luke says

    Threshold test failed – GRDC Robert and Debs just when back on climate change … sigh much hope for an intelligent conversation eh?

  98. Debbie says

    Ha! 🙂
    Sorry Luke but there you have it.
    You asked. . . That is my answer. . It is not my problem that you don’t like my answer. . . Maybe you don’t want to know?
    No amount of sneering and haranguing will change it. . . You did ask for my assessment. . . I gave it. 🙂
    Get over it and toughen up a little petal.
    It was given honestly and backed by actual personal/practical experience in this field.
    Did you even take a teensy weensy widdle second to contemplate the question I suggested you ask yourself?
    Just one?

  99. Robert says

    Supercell, if it’s any comfort, I used to write some publicity (not all that well) and sometimes I had to do the enviro spin. I was very big on doing junk mail on re-cycled paper, being the 90s and all. If QANGOs have to bang on about climate change etc etc, I’d do the same thing in their position. The klimatariat are a dogmatic and vengeful bunch, if you haven’t noticed. We all gotta eat.

    So I don’t blame people who have to write silly gunk as a sop to government and corporations. (My most painful exercise was those Mission Statements and Vision Statements. God, I hope we’ve seen the last of them.)

    And no, I’m not worried about the sub-tropical ridges doing this and that to our agriculture. Or rather, I’m worried, but that’s just how it is. One day – nobody knows when – they’ll do that and this. It’s called climate change. Goyder and Kidman understood. The Macarthurs were likely in Sydney when the colossal monsoon failure in India in the early 1790s turned our east coast to a furnace. So farmers have always understood. Do you understand? I know, I know…too anecdotal. Reach for some acronyms, quick!

    I’m all in favour of agronomy, meteorology and anything else to help the cockies. I also want to lavish tax dollars on disability, broadband, fast trains and all kinds of stuff. But what doesn’t work doesn’t work. What you don’t know you don’t know. It’s just too bad.

  100. Debbie says

    But what doesn’t work doesn’t work. What you don’t know you don’t know. It’s just too bad. 🙂 🙂 🙂
    YEP! Well said Robert.

  102. John Sayers says

    Yes Debbie, that was back in 2010 when Rudd was in his heyday.

    Unfortunately Anthony Ackroyd is a rusted on labor lefty so it’s poking fun instead of outright ridicule as it should be.

    If you’ve ever listened to Ackroyd on Richard Glover’s ABC Radio show, Thank God it’s Friday you’d be astounded at his inherent left bias.

  104. Neville says

    National Geographic magazine goes completely troppo about dangerous SLR.

    http://press.nationalgeographic.com/2013/08/15/national-geographic-magazine-september-2013/

    Yet all the models show SFA problems for the next 300+ years and SLs are much lower now than they were 4,000 years ago.
    You just have to wonder who the dummies are who would hand over big bucks to buy this trashy mag?
    Talk about faith over reason, these fools have got it in spades. Remember all the estimates show that the entire USA coastline could be protected from a 1 metre SLR for about 5 to 6 billion S.

    By comparison OZ’s budget ( deficit ) estimate has blown out by over 12 billion $ since the May 2013 budget.
    That’s under the brilliant Gillard and Swan leadership. SARC. Garrwwwed knows what sort of a mess Abbott and Hockey will discover if they take over the reins after sept 7th?

  106. sp says

    1. Climate change and cities

    Last year was one of the hottest on record, with sea levels hitting all time highs and arctic ice at historic lows. We all know of the potential threat to the environment of climate change but did you know the ‘financial risk’ could be greater than the GFC? Or that it poses serious health risks? Paul Barclay moderates a forum on climate change and how it’s affecting our cities.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/climate-change-and-cities/4889548

    2. Attributions to climate change

    Emeritus Professor Tony Eggleton from the Research school of Earth Sciences at the ANU in Canberra asks the question, what can be attributed to global warming/climate change? According to him meteorologists believe that no particular event can be attributed specifically to global warming, but all weather is affected by it. Professor Eggleton takes a closer look at this and investigates the issue.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/ockhamsrazor/attributions-to-climate-change/4886272

    3. How Many Angels Can Dance on the Head of a Pin?

    Coming soon from “your” ABC – confronting the greatest moral challenge of our time ….. well, at least it used to be …. maybe not after the election ….. is it a tax or an ETS? Setting an example for the Chinese and Indians to follow (of course they are obsessed with Australia – who else would they follow?)

  108. handjive says

    August 21, 2013
    EXCLUSIVE: THE Murray River from the Darling to the sea was listed as “critically endangered” in a final act of federal Labor.

    The Weekly Times can reveal Environment Minister Mark Butler added the Murray and associated wetlands, floodplains and groundwater systems to the threatened ecological communities list just before the Government entered caretaker mode.

    http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2013/08/21/580369_national-news.html

  109. Debbie says

    AAAARRRRGH!!!!!
    So here we go with even more bureaucracy and ‘cost recovery’ for no added benefit or value!
    In my part of the MDB we already have 6 of them, all with their hands out!
    Some acronyms for Luke.
    MI, CIL, SWC, NOW, SHL & MDBA
    Other orgs also charge for representation per ML…NSWIC
    Before all this ‘water reform legislation’ we had ONE (1!!!!!!) and it managed more water than we now have available….this is becoming ridiculous in the extreme!
    We also have SWC (State Water Commission) wanting to put their prices up and charging using a formula that is 80% fixed asset charges and only 20% on delivery.
    Can you imagine they would behave that way if they were not a monopoly?

  110. Robert says

    Deb, what’s the AAAARRRRGH? Is it the Federal counterpart of the NSWAAARRRRGH? Or have the NSWAAARRRRGH, the VAAARRRRGH, and the SAAAARRRRGH just been merged into the AAAARRRRGH?

  113. Debbie says

    🙂 🙂 🙂

    YEAH!
    Who the hell does he think he is trying to insert some ‘common sense and decency’ (to quote Tom Chesson, NIC CEO, in that Weekly Times article) into QLD? How dare he attempt to remove some of that QAAARRRGGHH!! Anyone would think he believes he has some type of mandated authority to do it???
    🙂 🙂 🙂

    I wonder how the WAAAAARRRRGGHHH and the NTAAARRRRGHH and the TASAAARRRRGH is going?

  117. Jennifer Marohasy says

    I’ve been a bit distracted getting a first newsletter out for the M&TM website… you should have also received the newsletter if you are subscribed here/at this website…

    Anyway, its online here…
    http://tinyurl.com/m35vy55

  118. Debbie says

    Yes Jen,
    Have got mine and sent it on. Great work. A big thank you from this MDB resident/irrigator.

  119. Debbie says

    HUH?

    They dropped but they’re really rising and it’s all the fault of Australia’s odd geography?

    http://www.krcc.org/post/how-extreme-australian-rains-made-global-sea-levels-drop

    “Global sea level has been rising as a result of global warming, but in 2010 and 2011, sea level actually fell by about a quarter of an inch.

    Scientists now say they know why: It has to do with extreme weather in Australia.”

    ………

    “Some of those floodwaters simply ran back into the ocean, so they didn’t affect sea level. But a lot of that water was trapped on the Australian land mass. That’s because the continent has an odd geography.”

    ……..

    ” During that time, sea level dropped by a quarter of an inch, though normally it rises by an eighth of an inch per year. ”

    ……..

    ” In fact, over the past two years, global sea level has risen by nearly an inch — that’s more than three times faster than normal, “and with that we have a new mystery,” Fasullo says. ”

    Good Grief!!!

  120. John Sayers says

    Unbelievable Debbie!

    I did a quick calc and the volume of water in 1/4″ (6mm) of ocean is just over 2,000 trillion cubic metres. The Volume of lake Eyre full is approx 14 trillion cubic metres. I wonder where the rest goes?

  121. Robert says

    Frankly, it was a travesty that they couldn’t explain the sea level decline. But it’s okay now. Everything is worse than we thought again.

    In more sensational climate news, John Fasullo and his colleagues are about to get…PUBLISHED!

  123. spangled drongo says

    Thanks Debbie. The crazies are getting desperater and desperater. They don’t get that by paving-over of the earth [roads, roofs etc] there is more water than ever going back into the ocean, faster, and less into the soil.

    Not to mention all that water they dumped out of Wivenhoe ☺.

    But just think. Lake Eyre could save our bacon if we cut a channel to it through SA. On their calcs it must be good to prevent at least half an inch of SLR.

    What the hell, it’s salt anyway and it might even save the Mulloway.

  124. el gordo says

    Debbie I think the idea is plausible, here’s BoM’s take on it… which I’ll accept unless someone has a more convincing argument for the pronounced dip in sea level.

    ‘Australian temperatures from late 2010 to mid-2012 were kept relatively cool by two major La Niña events and record high rainfall which gave rise to widespread flooding affecting much of the country. The cooler conditions were a direct result of the high rainfall during these two years.

    ‘Widespread, excess rain over the continent effectively acts like a large evaporative cooler, suppressing daytime temperatures in particular, while additional cloud cover also cools daytime temperatures, especially in summer.

    ‘The national mean temperature from September 2010 to August 2012 was 0.27 °C below the 1961–1990 average, while the rainfall was the highest on record with 1365 mm falling on Australia; against a 2-year average of just 930 mm.’

  125. John Sayers says

    Actually SD it was originally linked to the Gulf of Carpentaria which would be the easiest route. 🙂

    el gordo – 6mm deep over the 70% of the planet is a lot of water!

  126. Debbie says

    Maybe locally el gordo. . . I guess anything is plausible locally. But as John points out. . . Australia could not possibly ‘disappear’ 2,000 trillion cubic metres of the global sea level. . . that is a lot of water.
    I also question that 1365mm being the highest (although I guess the caveat for BoM is ‘on record’).
    There was indeed ‘wide spread flooding’. . . some of it was right here in the MIA . . . but I was not aware that any of it was the highest recorded?
    It is a bit amusing that most of the flooding and heavy rains occured exactly where the CAGW celebs said it would unlikely happen again. . . AND!. . . completed the consecutive 3 wettest years (on record) in SE Australia.
    Even more amusing that ‘mother nature’ flushed the MDB & CEWH (Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder) couldn’t do anything about it (except waste water).
    That article handjive posted is an absolute joke! The MDB is in flourishing good health. . . and almost nothing to do with Federal Govt water policies.

  127. John Sayers says

    Debbie, el gordo – 2000 trillion cubic metres of global sea level is 3,800 Sydney Harbours.

  128. papertiger says

    Here’s the American version of a kangaroo.

    Two baby possums
    Found them sitting in the trashcan in my shed. They crawled in after the remains of a sandwich I guess, couldn’t reach the rim to pull themselves back out.

    Several unique features about these critters.
    They don’t have feet. Instead they are equipped with four five fingered hands complete with opposable thumbs. Makes it a little awkward walking, but they climb trees great.
    Their tails are prehensile, so they can grip your finger or carry around a stick.
    Another thing is their metabolism. Their normal internal temperature is too low to support many infectious diseases so you can handle them without much worry. They won’t infect your cat or dog with rabies or distemper.
    That’s rare for critters here.

    They are imune to snake venom. I pity the snake that slithers through my yard.

    They have an impressive jaw full of teeth and can open their mouth wide like a gator, but I’ve never seen them use it as anything but a bluff.
    They get along peacefully with the neighbor’s cat, although I suspect one of them nipped off my turkey’s toenail in the night.

    Probably not one of these two. Maybe their mommy.

  133. sp says

    Climate science research going to Pot:

    Judith Curry’s remarks [Scientists and motivated reasoning], as usual, are dead on the money.

    CNN recently completely reversed its editorial policy and now calls for the legalization of Marijuana. Sanjay Gupta, its “resident physician editorialist”, who had previously somewhat vigorously led this opposition from the scientific point of view completely reversed his own position, and explained why in considerable detail both in text and in online video.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/22/how-global-warming-research-is-like-pot-research/

  134. Robert says

    You know, handjive, I often wonder if the people we import food from are so careful, so regulated, so unsubsidised and so taxed as our own farmers and processors. (Some think “billions in drought relief” can compare with the stupendous subsidies handed out to agriculture in the rest of the world, NZ excepted. In their dreams.) It’s a bit like the situation of those who burn our massive exports of coal and gas and don’t have to worry about our carbon taxes or their own.

    If carbon footprints and “the planet” really were the issue I doubt that we would be seeing these bizarre contradictions.

  136. Beth Cooper says

    Say, bizarre contra-dix-shuns are welcomed in an hegelian historicist universe, Roberto.
    Ref … ahem … ter me serf-study, ‘History’s Chequered History’ coming up, when I look
    at error as positive, no need ter eliminate it, in dia-leque-tical method-ology.

  138. Robert says

    The Arctic boaters wanted to draw attention to climate change. Sure enough, the climate changed.

    It’s very odd. Those who preach most about climate change – as a concept – seem utterly unaware of it it in the real world.

    Really, climate change could jump into their laps and bite out their belly buttons…and they wouldn’t notice it. Is it their MR or their dialectical methodology?

    Or are they just bloody dills?

  139. spangled drongo says

    Robert, you’ve got to wonder if they ever try to rationalise their obviously high-powered motivation and/or end up any wiser for the experience.

    I suppose though it’s mostly a game they get paid to play.

  143. Neville says

    I’m a great believer in the better OZ polling and even Newspoll now suggests Rudd could lose Griffith and ditto Beattie is gone in Forde.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/abbott_will_be_pm_poll_lead_grows/

    Abbott’s PPL scheme is as absurd as OZ’s mitigation of CAGW by reducing 5% of co2 by 2020. But I know he has to have both to compete, but his PPL should have been zip difference to Labor.

    Brown must have been a winner for the Greens because Labor’s loss of support has gone straight to the Abbott’s Coalition and even the Greens seem to be losing support since 2010.
    But Katter and Palmer have probably taken a combined 2% of the OZ vote in 2013. But higher in Qld.
    If Qld vote holds at 60 /40 for the Coalition and Tassie is a near wipe out ( those swings are huge ) then Labor and Rudd will have some real soul searching to do after sept 7th.
    Still a fortnight to go and I’ll believe the average of the best polls on the 6th of sept.

  147. spangled drongo says

    Neville, Bert van Manen is a very real-world Australian of Dutch parentage. Just the person we need, unlike “I’m over Queensland” Beattie.

    And Bill Glasson is also a brilliant candidate. His father [Bill snr] was the State member for Gregory and before that was an amateur jockey who always beat me across the line in the bush picnics.

    Bill jnr has lived in Griffith most of his life and is an ophthalmologist and past president of the AMA. He is no stranger to community service. He’ll give Rudd a good run.

    It’s good candidates that make the difference.

  148. spangled drongo says

    That link I supplied upthread to the latest happenings in the Americas Cup shows what incredible technological advances have been made with wind power.

    None of which, sadly, are worth a cracker in the commercial real-world.

    The commercial worth of wind power arguably hit its zenith over a century ago with the development of the Wool and Tea Clippers [Cutty Sark etc].

    Consider the commercial worth of solar powered vehicles.

  154. el gordo says

    ‘Scientists are struggling to explain why global warming seems to have slowed down in the last decade in a leaked draft of the UN’s next big report on climate change.

    ‘The intergovernmental study claims scientists are 95 per cent sure that humans are to blame for climate change, but presently they have not come up with a unified reason for why global surface temperatures have not risen as predicted in the past 15 years.

    ‘According to the unpublished draft document, scientists believe volcanic ash, less heat from the sun and more heat being absorbed by oceans could explain the mystery.’

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2398753/Why-HAS-global-warming-slowed-Scientists-admit-dont-know-why.html#ixzz2csEIV1xl
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  160. Beth Cooper says

    Rudd’s cooked his goose and the chickens are coming home to roost,
    and over head the muffled sound of black swans’ beating wings …
    Eden Monaro … Griffith?

  162. Beth Cooper says

    Peter Lang on Judith Curry Open Thread, 24’08 @ 2.08am posts several links
    showing interest in CAGW doomsday messages declining rapidly in media ,
    down 90% since its peak in 2009. bts

  166. Neville says

    Incredibly the Climate Sceptics party has given Labor their preference before the Coalition in the senate in NSW and Victoria.
    I’ll check the other states later. But just shows what a lot of BS these fools engage in. They reward the very party that gave us the carbon tax and crap on the only party who can get rid of this monstrous liability.

    This party was supposed to be set up to get rid of the carbon tax, but we now understand that they want to help Labor in the senate. Can you believe these people?

  169. Neville says

    Jennifer in Vic the Climate Sceptics have Labor in positions 82 to 87 and the Coalition 88 to 91.

    In NSW they have Labor 93 to 98 and Coalition 99 to 104. I’ll check the other states later. But please check it out for yourself. Don’t take my word for it.
    Needless to say I won’t be voting in Vic for these liars and fraudsters. They care as much about the co2 tax as Labor does about emissions and that’s zip.

  170. Neville says

    Just to update the Climate Sceptics No carbon tax ???????? preferences in the other states for the senate.
    The have the Coalition above Labor in Qld, Coalition positions 70 to 75 and Labor 76 to 79.
    In SA they have the Coalition above Labor, Nats 60 to 61, Libs 62 to 65, Labor 71 to 73.

    In WA Nats 40 to 41, Libs 50,55, Labor 56 to 59. In Tassie they have Labor before the Coalition.
    Labor at 44 to 47 and Liberals 48 to 51.
    None standing in the NT or ACT senate race.

    This could be one of the tightest senate contests since 2004 yet these con merchants have put Labor ahead of the Coalition in Vic, NSW and Tassie and yet they are the only party who can get rid of the co2 tax and ETS.
    Just proves you can’t trust anyone on this issue and least of all the Climate Sceptics no carbon tax party.

  174. toby says

    Neville, thx for pointing that out. DISGRACEFUL to say the very least.

    nothing could excuse that as a decision imho, BUT I gave up on them a long while ago.

  175. Neville says

    I just received an email from Leon Ashby gushing about his chances in SA senate election and the dollars raised for his senate bid.
    I advised him that I wanted nothing more to do with them and would he please take me off their email list.

  176. Debbie says

    In the Australian…..

    Bob Katter gives lifeline to party ‘holding country to ransom’

    by: Sarah Martin
    From: The Australian
    August 20, 2013 12:00AM

    BOB Katter’s claim he will stop the Greens from “holding the country to ransom” has been undermined by a preference deal in South Australia that may throw senator Sarah Hanson-Young a lifeline.

    Senator Hanson-Young needs preferences from Labor and other minor parties to secure the sixth position in SA, which is seen as a chance for the Liberals to win………

    I know there is no love lost between the greens and Katter….so what’s going on here?

  177. Robert says

    Sometimes a skeptic can be so, er, unusual that the Greens feel a sort of kinship with him:
    “I mean, if you could imagine 20 or 30 crocodiles up there on the roof, and if all that roof was illumination, and saying that we wouldn’t see anything in this room because of a few croco-roaches up there…”
    – Bob Katter on climate change.

    Meanwhile, I think it’s important for the cause of surname hyphenation that the Greens (along with Sydney City Roosters) continue to have a large presence in Australian public life.

    That’s it folks. Gotta zip. Syria, you know…

  180. toby says

    Thx sp; “Many of NASA’s retirees have grown increasingly concerned that GISS, a NASA organization located in a midtown Manhattan office building, was allowing its science to be politicized, compromising their credibility. Our concern, beyond damage to the NASA’s exemplary reputation, was damage to their current or former scientists and employees, and even compromising the reputation of science itself.”

    Here here !, the pseudoscience, held aloft as real science has destroyed the credibility of so many scientists, and some still cant see it….amazing and sad. sigh…….

  182. el gordo says

    Understanding Sock Puppetry…. BJ to Karen at Deltoid.

    ‘I notice that you did not actually deny your sock-puppetry.

    ‘For Fatso’s information, KarenMackSunspot also shared idiosyncratic ellipsis incapacity with socks Sunspot and Mack, and also a peculiar overlap of posting session times when the socks first emerged. They all post(ed) links to abstracts that don’t mean what they think they mean. They all use the same language style, and the same way of referencing me. They all hate my guts with the same spiteful venom because I have pointed out innumerable errors on the puppeteer’s part. Sunspot especially was eviscerated on countless occasions and couldn’t handle the fact and forgot to turn off his peculiar brand of spite when he put on subsequent socks…

    ‘Further, one sock always appeared when another had been soundly whipped, and in the case of “Mack” when Sunspot was first confined to a dump thread. For a while whenever one sock needed some moral support another would chip in with astonishingly vapid praise, completely divorced from any grounding in logic, science or basic mathematical understanding.

    ‘I documented other tells but I’ll be stuffed if I can be bothered to find the original post. It’s sufficient to say that Karen is Mack and Sunspot, and he has never once put forward a counter to the professionally-produced science of climate change that has withstood more than 30 seconds scrutiny.’

  183. Debbie says

    So how does that help eg?
    I took a look at deltoid. What on earth is Luke up to? He is slapping them around and posting Jonova links?
    I do note however that he has found what I told him was there. Several months of open threads peopled by sour, dour & bitter foul mouthed members of the CAGW faithful.
    The one called Loatharson (sp?) is particularly horrid and smarmy followed closely by BBD, Bernard someone and the self appointed ‘AMAZING’ scientist Geoff (or Jeff?) Harvey.
    Sorry, not planning to go back and check the correct spelling. . . one visit is enough!
    Luke’s assessment of their behaviour is rather amusing to read.
    You are also messing with them in a delightful manner. It actually looks a bit too easy? Cohenite has also thrown in some grenades.

  184. sp says

    Difficult to believe that Clive Hamilton is a Professor at a university – pity the students!!!:

    “I have been in rooms where even sophisticated people who would cringe at being associated with climate deniers look for comfortable ways out. They pull back from what the science requires because the policy task looks too hard, oblivious to the fact that it now looks harder because others before them have reacted with the same timidity.”

    and using the “D” word – shame on ya Clive

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-26/hamilton-abbott-and-co-cant-ignore-climate-change-forever/4912456

  185. Johnathan Wilkes says

    I’m absolutely flabbergasted, listening to the news tonight I heard that this winter is going to be the warmest of the last three!

    For the last couple of years I kept a record of our electricity bill and the number of hours the heater and aircon was on and this winter we had the heater on nearly every day AND for more hours than last year while the aircon was on only for a few days!!

  186. Neville says

    To try and be fair to the Climate Sceptics party I’ve copied Bill’s reply to me from Jo Nova’s site.

    Bill Koutalianos
    August 27, 2013 at 9:04 pm · Reply
    Thanks for picking that up Neville. Yes, we’ve put Libs ahead of Labor in QLD. So that works out to preferencing Labor ahead of the Libs in 3 states and the Libs ahead of Labor in 3 states. Whilst we gravitate to the Libs on most policy areas, on the issue that’s most important to us, i.e. the climate deceit, the Libs are equally as complicit as Labor in deceiving the public and hence worthy of an equal amount of respect.
    I am deeply offended by your “fraudsters and liars” comment. Whilst we had originally anticipated preferencing the Libs ahead of Labor, they have since had the gall to back the Kyoto 2 Protocol & apparently with some enthusiasm. Greg Hunt at his Sydney Institute speech of 30th May 2013 spoke approvingly of a ‘market mechanism’. What do you think he might be talking about Neville? We all know the sceptics’ case has become so much more compelling of late, so how much longer should we wait for the Libs to come clean on the climate issue? Should climate sceptics be satisfied with the Coalition’s Direct Action Plan because it might save a few dollars over Labor’s carbon tax/ETS? Or do we want to expose this scam once and for all? The Libs have been marketing themselves as the ‘No Carbon Tax’ party since 1st December 2009 & where has it got us? I remember that day well and I was happy for my opponent in the Bradfield by-election to adopt my 3 word slogan, but as it turned out, it apparently means something completely different to the Libs.
    By voting below the line you’re free to rectify any of our misdemeanors and mishaps and preference one set of fraudsters and liars over another, should you so desire. Please help support the No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics Party with your first preference.

    Just to be clear this party is supposed to be against a co2 tax or ETS and so is the Coalition. Yet these very people are so clueless that they’ve supported Labor in half of their senate seats.
    I guess you can’t teach common sense and clear logic and reasoning anymore than try to help people who refuse to understand simple kindy maths. Just unbelievable stupidity and I will not be giving them my first preference.

  191. Neville says

    Luke nice to have you back from the deltoid donkey house. They sure are a bright bunch over there and when you leave you feel like you need a bath.
    I tried to leave a comment but it lasted about 5 minutes. They have a real high confidence level defending their vile, gutless point of view. SARC.

  194. Luke says

    Well a lot has happened on my vacation to Deltoidia – firstly I gave them some science. then I released about 3 years of pent up necessity to swear from be inhibited here – it was rank, then I became a woman – well a famous porn star actually. I think the porn star bit has them flustered, but hey I’m into that sort of kinky stuff. They want me – I know they do.

  197. Neville says

    Sorry Spangled you beat me to it again. I guess great minds think alike. Well that’s my excuse anyway.
    Also Bernie not Burnie.

  199. Neville says

    Malcolm Turnbull talked to Jones yesterday about B band speeds of 100 mbs at a distance of 400 metres over copper wire.
    I currently enjoy???? about 1.5mbs but can still run video most of the time. So why would you vote to rip up all the streets to supply fibre to the home for 70 bn $ higher cost?
    If I could get just 25mbs I would be over the moon.

    Here he is on the ABC 1 month ago covering much of the same detail.

  200. Neville says

    Malcolm Turnbull talked to Jones yesterday about B band speeds of 100 mbs at a distance of 400 metres over copper wire.
    I currently enjoy???? about 1.5mbs but can still run video most of the time. So why would you vote to rip up all the streets to supply fibre to the home for 70 bn $ higher cost?
    If I could get just 25mbs I would be over the moon.

    Here he is on the ABC 1 month ago covering much of the same detail.

    http://www.abc.net.au/local/audio/2013/07/26/3812016.htm

  201. spangled drongo says

    Neville, labor’s NBN of FTTH won’t happen at my place which is on a shelf below the plateau and I have been advised that I will be put on wireless which is slower than what I now have.

    Abbott’s FTTN will give me 25 mbs. No comparison.

    But Labor are putting this about:

  204. Debbie says

    Luke,
    I remember you lecturing me that deltoid discussed good science? I also remember I went to take a look on your say so and discovered that it has turned into a bitter repetitive place. . They seem to be perpetually stuck with the same circular arguments and ideologies….even though the world (and that totally uncooperative climate) has moved on. Have you any perspective on why they have become so ‘rank’ (as you put it)?
    It was amusing to watch you slap them around. It was also amusing to see that they couldn’t recognise a friend when they saw one.
    Although I can partly understand why you did so…I do wonder why you need to vent and swear on a public blog? Don’t you have a backyard or some other private space where you can let off some steam?
    BTW? What’s the go with that Geoff (Jeff?) Harvey? His comments gave me the creeps.

  207. Debbie says

    🙂 🙂 🙂
    A “warm ice age” ???????
    That is priceless!
    Do you have the link for that one sp?

  208. Luke says

    Deltoid used to be pretty good back in the day. I’m embarrassed.

    I have been undertaking an experiment to see what level of discourse I could achieve on some complex questions of pith and moment. They drop kicked me at post #1. “Welcome!”. And of course they’ve assumed all manner of things about me and verballed me continually which is an indicator of their objectivity and ability to filter information. So I’ve simply become what they wanted.

    Swearing – well just words compared to real insults to morality like being gassed in Syria. Now that’s obscene. Of course your personal values and mileage may vary. So sorry if you’re offended.

    Plus I wanted to insult them as much as possible as that’s how they welcomed me. 🙂

    I’ll pack it in over there soon.

  211. el gordo says

    Funny thing is when I first turned up at the Deltoid camp they kicked me around a bit. BBD reporting for duty from the old country began to lose sight of the fact he was on the world wide web, so I told him to give up the turps.

    Luke turned up and then cohenite, it was like the cavalry had arrived. Amazing to see the abuse subside once Luke put the boot in… thanx comrade.

  212. Debbie says

    Didn’t say it was ‘obscene’ Luke.
    I wasn’t offended . . . I’m a farmer. . . I can swear with the best of them and I have just about heard it all in places such as shearing sheds and around machinery that has decided to break down.
    I agree that gassing in Syria is obscene by comparison.
    Anyway. . . Good job giving them a hiding or as eg puts it . . . putting the boot in. . . . they definitely deserved it.

  213. Luke says

    Well I am trying to tunnel through to some truth on AGW and on environmental matters in general. It’s a difficult journey. And it’s not about being in the middle to seem reasonable – it’s whatever the truth between the politics and science might be?

    In search …. and testing ideas to breaking point. Which happens here with a bit of abuse and sledging.

    Neville is on the money with the news about the Nature paper – quite a stir.

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature12534.html

  214. Neville says

    The Bolter has declared Rudd a liar ( backed up by the heads of treasury and finance) and of course ditto for Bowen and Wong.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/rudd_a_liar_disowned_by_the_heads_of_treasury_and_finance/

    But Rudd/ Gillard and Labor have been lying for years about their concerns about co2 emissions. They’ve told us for years that AGW is the greatest moral challenge blah, blah and yet they want Vic to modify and export one of the largest brown coal deposits on the planet.
    Ferguson said it could be the size of another Pilbara and that means millions of tonnes every year to add to further co2 emissions.

    It seems it is just great business to produce monster co2 emissions overseas but the greatest sin to emit a flea bite at home in OZ.

  218. spangled drongo says

    Pick me, eg!

    How about: if the oceans are now absorbing heat, during non-warming, as part of the natural cycle then the giving-off of heat during the warming of the ’80s and ’90s could also have been due to natural variation as caused by the oceans.

    That ocean warming of 1976 was incredible [and natural].

    The giant has only to sneeze and we all catch cold.

  220. Neville says

    EG I can probably guess just like the next bloke. I’m sure that 0.7 c warming over the last 100+ years is a combo of natural ocean oscillations, solar, UHI etc and some small assist from AGW as well over the last 50 years.
    But I’m sure that AGW will not be anything like the problem that the hysterics think it will be. If the PDO persists in a cool phase for another twenty years or more it will test a lot scientific minds and perhaps more pollies and the public will ask more questions? Who knows?

  222. Neville says

    Jo Nova has a good post of the cost of Labor and Coalition’s co2 reduction schemes. Labor’s cost is $900 per household and Coalition is $100.
    Just another reason to vote for the Coalition above Labor on your ballot paper.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2013/08/compare-policies-labor-will-take-900-from-each-house-to-reduce-co2-coalition-100-per-house/#more-30261

    Neither scheme will make a scrap of difference to climate or temp by 2100 but at least we won’t be sending billions overseas every year to buy dubious certificates if we have the brains to preference the Coalition first.

  223. Beth Cooper says

    Ocean heat? Say, beneath that civilized
    exterior lie seamy depths, sub-induction
    zones ter make you shudder,
    underwater earthquakes, includin’
    the Aleutian, ninety per-cent of ’em
    comin’ from sub-induction. Then
    there’s all those under water volcanoes,
    like off Hawaii, the oceans are seethin
    with them, not ter mention hot spots,
    which have not gone missing as in
    the troposhere. Plenty down there.
    beth-the-serf.
    http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/Volcano_tectonic.html

  224. el gordo says

    Thanks spangles, good answer, but young Neville I think you should take the science more seriously.

    ‘If the PDO persists in a cool phase for another twenty years or more it will test a lot scientific minds and perhaps more pollies and the public will ask more questions? Who knows?’

    The Denialati expect a global cooling tipping point to begin in a couple of years, do you think that feasible?

  225. spangled drongo says

    Beth, that uncertainty just doesn’t rate when you gotta good GCM.

    And let’s face it, they’re all good.☺

  226. Beth Cooper says

    spangled drongo, yes agree…

    They’re clever specializers
    in the art of climatologyy.
    they’re very highly specialized
    in modelling futurology …

    It’s an art, yer see, like
    painting a pichure or
    baking a cake.

  227. spangled drongo says

    “baking a cake.”

    Indeed! But then they leave it out in the rain.

    There was a young modeller called Fred
    Who felt natural climate was dead
    And inserting these views
    Showed frightening news
    Of man made disaster instead.

  228. spangled drongo says

    Today is the last day of winter and the alarmists in Brisbane have been saying it’s gonna get to 30c and hit a warm record of some sort.

    I notice it peaked at 26.8c

    But it has been a mild winter [sank doodness for dat, as my grandchildren would say]

  231. Robert says

    It would be a pity if they fussed over some Brisbane warmth but ignored the present snow and coldwave crisis in Peru and elsewhere in South America. Some of us read Spanish and Portuguese, guys!

    August heatwaves in Eastern Oz are a recurring freak, though I suppose we’re not in that territory yet and it’s September tomorrow. It was in ’83 or ’84 that Sydney beaches were full one August weekend. Be careful though. Winter often comes back after freak heats in August.

    When we have climate scientists we’ll be able to explain all these anecdotes.

  232. Neville says

    EG since when didn’t I take the science seriously? BTW I wouldn’t have a clue what any tipping point if any might be in a couple of years. Who does and who are these denialati?

  233. el gordo says

    David Archibald and Andrew Bolt are closet members of the Denialati, although if you asked them to their face they’ll deny it.

    Millions of Australians have been brainwashed into thinking CO2 is a pollutant and humanity is destroying the planet. The only way to debrief the masses is with knowledge of the science and I thought you might like to play a part in the revolution.

  234. spangled drongo says

    Eg, how are Bolt, Archibald etc denialati? I think many people who are sceptical of ACO2 produced CAGW are also sceptical of ACO2 produced AGW.

    The fact is that there is little evidence to support it to any serious degree and that historic GW was neither ACO2 produced, CO2 produced, CA or even A of any sort means that the null hypothesis hastabe the true situation.

    What are they denying?

    As politics rather than science has hijacked the discussion on important issues such as Fracking, GMO, Nuclear Power, Climate Change etc, the true Denialati seem to be the Luddites in the other tent led by Greenpeace et al.

  235. el gordo says

    I see Andrew Bolt as someone on the political wing (that’s where he is found on Watts blog roll) and he has never (to my knowledge) supported the proposition that CO2 causes GW. Bolt is a big fan of natural variability and I’ll never forget how he dismantled Greg Hunt.

    David Archibald is on the science wing and fully expects to see a drop of two degrees before the end of the decade, but I don’t expect Bolt believes that.

    The null hypothesis is that the sun and planetary oscillations are the main drivers of climate change.

  237. Neville says

    EG I don’t want to join anyone or any movement, I’m quite happy being my own council.
    BTW Bolt does believe in some AGW and has always said so. He just doesn’t think it will be CAGW and is well aware of extremes of temp change and climate in the earlier and more recent Holocene.

    For example the LIA was a very cold period and Lomborg quotes many of the studies that show that maximum glacial advance ( during the later holocene) occured during the LIA in many parts of europe etc.
    We also know about the much warmer Eemian and higher SLs and the warmer Holocene optimum etc.
    All of these natural changes would be a problem for our modern world and we should never doubt it could happen again, but hopefully with a span of hundreds or thousands of years to help us fully prepare. But who knows?

  238. el gordo says

    On second thoughts, Bolt is probably just an ordinary sceptic.

    ‘hopefully with a span of hundreds or thousands of years to help us fully prepare. But who knows?’

    We are at the end of the Holocene and the modern climate optimum, if CO2 is not the main driver then we’ll have to revert to the null hypothesis.

  244. el gordo says

    ‘While people have been enjoying balmy days in late winter, Bureau of Meteorology forecasts spring will show above average rainfall for the next three months – and toastier conditions at night.

    ‘In fact, the bureau predicts a 60 per cent likelihood of rainfall across the greater Sydney region will surpass the city’s spring average of 229.3 millimetres.’

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/spring-is-sprung–wetter-than-winter-with-balmy-nights-20130831-2sxe2.html#ixzz2dcts3pbd

  257. spangled drongo says

    And a much more rational interpretation of the recent GAT:

    de Freitas and McLean, 2013, p. 237 (Int J Geosciences – open access):

    “All other things being equal, a period dominated by a high frequency of El Niño-like conditions will result in global warming, whereas a period dominated by a high frequency of La Niña-like conditions will result in global cooling. Overall, the results imply that natural climate forcing associated with ENSO is a major contributor to temperature variability and perhaps a major control knob governing Earth’s temperature.”

  259. el gordo says

    A special word of thanks to our colleague Luke, who helped bring down Deltoid. His incisive knowledge of the science won the day and showed the remaining ratbags that they were out of touch with reality.

    Cohers also spent time there before the election called him away.

    Victory is not certain, the blog has been under a severe DoS attack and September never came, it may rise again. Methinks Lambert’s pulled the pug, the doors are closed and bolted.

  261. Robert says

    It was not my intention to send Luke to face the evil Deltoids till he had received his final training from me. I wanted my little grasshopper to be able to walk on rice paper without leaving a mark, dodge star knives blindfolded, that sort of thing. But he has performed well, and, while he still has many anecdotes to learn at my feet, I grant him my blessing for calling out those commie watermelons.

    That said, if I see his head around here I’ll have to kick it. It’s for his own good.

  262. Jennifer marohasy says

    I haven’t been to Deltoid for a long, long time, but I’ve always know that under that often times infuriating, stubborn, and too clever-by-half exterior, Luke has a heart of gold.

  263. Debbie says

    I just went to look…probably a good idea not go there Jen. . . it is not pleasant.
    I’m sorry for Luke that Deltoid is no longer the same as he believed it was.
    Lots of pointless and quite ugly abuse hurled at people like Judith Curry and Fred Singer…as well as Luke and eg and Cohenite and others.
    They deserved what Luke told them. He pointed out here earlier that he was abused from the second he appeared.
    They must have become so bitter towards everything that they aren’t even able to recognise a potential friend when they see one?
    BTW… eg or Luke or Cohenite….. who is that pompous Jeff Harvey? His comments are rather creepy. Is he a climate scientist? Luke doesn’t seem to think so?
    I nearly fell off my chair laughing when one of them tried to argue that the use of the term ‘watermelon’ is racist! That was hilarious. 🙂 🙂

    So was Luke’s comeback

  266. el gordo says

    ‘Luke has a heart of gold.’

    He’s also useful in close quarters combat.

    ‘He pointed out here earlier that he was abused from the second he appeared.’

    They assumed he was a Sceptic and tore into him … big mistake.

    ‘who is that pompous Jeff Harvey?’

    Supposedly a natural scientist from the UK.

  267. Luke says

    Good evening all – I’m swearing more at Deltoid than at work. They actually had to take me to a bogan pub at Woodridge to get me in training. All the code of conduct training had left me inhibited.

    Plus watching multiple Jaydos videos http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wy5DwsmwZ90 and ShooterWilliamson http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMvtzpigvo4&feature=c4-overview&list=UUUsTSbCLD96-pcWi2Kqaitg (Robert and Debbie don’t watch the videos pls)

    Anyway guess it’s Libs well home in the reps. Worried about the Senate. Will Labor go the double dissy over the ETS? Who would know.

    Anyway – here’s my voting guide for Saturday http://dontbeafuckingidiot.herokuapp.com/

  270. Luke says

    Yes but the blog wouldn’t let me post it. So posted it with spaces and told them to type it. We’ll see – they’re a sour lot.

  271. Robert says

    Hey, Luke, how come all these comedy club man-boys talk with hipster plums, even when they’re trying to sound like bogans? Can’t lose that plum in the voice, no matter how hard they swear. And they’ve got those sad, Bambi eyes, like they’re terrified somebody isn’t laughing at their sketches. Reminds me of when Gareth Evans was going for the reps and had to make touch with the common people. Started calling everybody “mate” but just couldn’t manage the long vowel.

    Ah, Luke, it’s so good to have you around. You are close to being my fave commenter. Keep terrorising those creepy commie Deltoids but come back and see us from time to time. We might need you to chuck rocks at Abbott’s Green Army as they attempt to turn the country into a wallaby delicatessen.

    Mmmm, seedlings…

  272. el gordo says

    ‘Will Labor go the double dissy over the ETS?’

    Funny you should mention that, I was talking to Cobb (Ag & Food Security) the other day and his reply to that question was “Rudd won’t try it on”.

    So even if the Coalition fails to win both houses, Labor won’t block the scrapping of the carbon tax in the Senate.

  274. el gordo says

    This open thread is a good place to discuss our forays in a candid sort of way, a political cell on active duty.

    The characters lingering over there have the ‘faith’ real bad and their future is looking grim, yet they have to carry on and hope that warming will soon begin again. Fat chance.

    Loth has been around the traps for years, Blogocracy was his early home and then Deltoid, so he’s a watermelon (political wing).

    Abbott’s green army should be demobbed in advance … if only we could convince Tony that CO2 doesn’t cause global warming.

  275. Debbie says

    It appears as if the news of today is about the costings of those very things el gordo?
    http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1755698/coalition-fails-to-hand-in-policies-for-costings/?cs=12
    There are several others but there are pay walls in place.
    I found the Loth comments almost as creepy as Jeff Harvey’s at deltoid.
    I still think the argument about the term ‘watermelon’ being racist is one of the most deliciously and delightfully ironic things I have ever seen. 🙂
    These are the very same people who freely use the term ‘denier’ at every opportunity and sneer at everyone who doesn’t agree with them, even Luke!
    Very, very funny.

  276. spangled drongo says

    Well let’s face it eg, it is species-ist!

    Isn’t that even worse than racist? ☺

    But Tony’s gunna bring back FOS so we’ll be able to be as racist as we like.

    Which is as it should be.

    The way Doltoids enjoy insulting all and sundry, their false horreur at hurting peoples feelings is very droll.

  278. Robert says

    Hey, maybe we’ll be allowed to use the singular third person feminine pronoun again! First thing I’ll do is refer to Julia as “she”. So bad.

    Then I’ll do a rant on Milne or the hyphenated sheila in the senate: “Speciesism, every day from this woman, nothing but speciesism…and don’t you dare look at your watch while I’m ranting!”

  281. Beth Cooper says

    Yeah el gordo @ 12.43pm, open threads and candid forays,
    open societies is good.The trouble with U-topias, dis-topias
    really, they’re about control, “we – arrest – change, offer –
    back- ter – the – golden – age – certainties – and we provide
    the walled security of tribal society – but yer hafta pay the
    price – yer hafta listen and obey the message from above.”
    bts

  282. Luke says

    Beth your piccie looks pretty hot. Are you seeing anyone (perhaps a lord – surely not a serf?) and could you love a beast?

  283. Beth Cooper says

    That photo is a decade old Luke sorry. 🙂 It was the only one I had on computah
    U wouldn’t like me anyway, I’m too right wing but thx fer compluhment.

    Jest a serf.

  287. Robert says

    EG, looking at the latest ozone theory gives a real insight into the medieval mindset and what happens when religious dogma provides the rigid framework within which inquiry is allowed to operate. Cyclic change is seen as novel, threatening and anthropogenic. All must come back to human excesses and impiety, and some kind of punitive tithing and impoverishment must be implemented. The cloistered theologian who has never had to ask “how much don’t I know?” can make pronouncements based on the merest smidgins of info, as if Revelation will always provide the necessary and ignorance therefore does not matter.

    Just one example which always strikes me:
    We live on the thin crust of a huge, unexplored ball of heat and pressure; yet people rarely talk about that great big ball in relation to climate, except to dismiss it as a factor. Our ignorance of what can be called nearly all the earth is deemed to be the work of some Providence. If Revelation meant us to know, we would know.

    And this is what some call science. I call it Just-Send-Money.

  288. el gordo says

    I agree Robert, it’s a Medieval mindset, which we can henceforth refer to it as groupthink. Fortunately for us, being a CC heretic in the 21st century won’t lead to a premature death.

  289. Debbie says

    Well said Robert.
    We don’t know what we don’t know and I am thoroughly sick of ‘the science is settled’ crap!
    As I have said to Luke, Bazza, Polyaux et al several times. . . Work on better seasonal forecasting and flexible water management and flexible Natural Resource Management and those of us who work in the REAL ENVIRONMENT 24/7/365 will happily pay your wages and bless your little cotton socks 🙂
    It looks like the Oz electorate is about to take to ‘the science is settled’ & ‘our green betters’ with a baseball bat because they won’t countenance the ‘bleeding obvious’.

  290. Robert says

    My sinuses are keeping me awake. Wanted so much to be fresh tomorrow, even though in our valley nobody even mentions politics at election bbqs.

    Thought I’d mention I’m in the Lyne electorate. Don’t much like the new Nats guy, but any port in a storm, eh?

    To paraphrase the outgoing member, it’s going to be beautiful, but it’ll be beautiful in its beautifulness.

  296. el gordo says

    Yeah, its time, let the counting begin. I reckon Abbott is a dark horse and may surprise us with revolutionary zeal.

    Over at Deltoid the DoS attack is over and a sense of normality has returned. Luke and I have a ‘good cop bad cop’ routine going … much amusement.

  298. Neville says

    I suppose Abbott has had a good win, but the polling and exit polls were far too optimistic.
    He must be the most successful opposition leader in OZ history but the win could have been so much better.
    I know I’m just a greedy bastard, I accept that. The senate after July next year will have new minor parties to deal with, but anything is better than the babyish anti science Greens.

    Lomborg’s column in the OZ a few days ago just proves the stupidity of renewable energy.
    OZ’s renewable percentage hasn’t changed since 1990 and wind now supplies just 0.4% and solar 0.1%.
    Last year we wasted another 6 billion $ on renewables for zero return on our investment. When will this idiocy stop?
    As we know none of the major parties could care less about co2 emissions. Just look at the scramble to export heaps more iron ore, coal and gas etc.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/climate-challenge-requires-new-approach/story-fni1hfs5-1226710063133

  300. el gordo says

    **guffaw **

    ‘It is possible – just possible – that Tony Abbott will surprise us.’

    Peter Fitzsimons

  301. el gordo says

    ‘Go, my pretties. Sow confusion in the ranks of the Deltoids!’

    We could always do with extra hands, if you can stomach the abuse.

  302. spangled drongo says

    “We could always do with extra hands, if you can stomach the abuse.”

    Eg, while I have visited a couple of times when I have had evidence on the lack of SLR [which they invariably deny, regardless of evidence, anyway] I would probably prefer bowel cancer to a casual visit with the Doltoids.

    Life is too enjoyable elsewhere.

    But I do admire your spirit.

  304. el gordo says

    ‘But I do admire your spirit.’

    Following on from Lomborg’s comment that 84% of Australians have been brainwashed into thinking CO2 is a pollutant, indicates to me that there is a lot of debriefing to do.

    There is a strong possibility that a double dizzy is on the horizon, so we will need to sharpen our swords in preparation. Deltoid provides an opportunity to hone my global cooling meme through robust discussion, this is an invaluable experience.

  305. el gordo says

    Robert, both you and spangles have a dry sense of humour and quick wit …. this is how we’ll ultimately debrief the masses and turn the world on its head.

    Just sayin’

  308. el gordo says

    The young have been brainwashed through the education system, along with their teachers, so its not going to be easy. Obviously we need to get the MSM on side if there is a double D election and any journalist worth his salt will go to Nova or here to get the contrarian viewpoint from an Australian perspective.

  309. el gordo says

    ‘In its draft report, the IPCC says it is ‘95 per cent confident’ that global warming has been caused by humans – up from 90 per cent in 2007.

    ‘This claim is already hotly disputed. US climate expert Professor Judith Curry said last night: ‘In fact, the uncertainty is getting bigger. It’s now clear the models are way too sensitive to carbon dioxide. I cannot see any basis for the IPCC increasing its confidence level.’

    ‘She pointed to long-term cycles in ocean temperature, which have a huge influence on climate and suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend. This led some scientists at the time to forecast an imminent ice age.’

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warming-predictions.html#ixzz2eHBGgPG3
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  310. Debbie says

    Priceless and amusingly ironic piece in Quadrant online this morning. Lovely take on the spin.
    I’m not sure that giving deltoid that much oxygen is worth the effort eg. You are doing a great job of messing with their heads though.
    They are still arguing and slinging personal insults on an August thread. . . which looks a bit strange??? 🙂 🙂
    Hey Robert! What’s wrong with the name Stu? All the Stuarts I know are nothing like that bitter little sniper on Deltoid.

  311. spangleds drongo says

    Just cos science ain’t got a clue eg, that don’t apply to they models. They models smart!

  312. el gordo says

    Of some interest, we don’t have to worry about a Double D election if Shorten gets the nod for Opposition leader. This from Rob Burgess (Business Spectator) a month ago.

    ‘In essence, some strong proponents of climate change action believe Bill Shorten has begun lobbying members of Caucus to abandon carbon pricing as a Labor policy after the next election.

    ‘The argument follows the precedent set by the Coaltion over WorkChoices – though many in the Liberal and National parties believed it was the right policy, they were required to disown it after the 2007 election so as to avoid spending years in the political wilderness.

    ‘After the 2013 election, Labor could be tempted to walk away from its own electoral poison – CarbonChoices, if you will.’

  314. Robert says

    Debs, I reckon you have to be careful with anyone called Stu. (Think Stuart Broad.) They’re not as dodgy as Tristans, but nothing’s as bad as a Tristan. Could be a regional thing. Maybe the Stuarts aren’t too bad out your way.

    Because you know some good Stuarts, I’ll ease up on them. But I’m not going soft on Tristans.

  316. el gordo says

    The Double D is definitely on, no matter who wins the bout between Albo and Shorten.

    ‘And both men insisted Labor would vote against the repeal of Labor’s carbon pricing scheme, something Tony Abbott has said would be like “committing political suicide twice”.

    “Well, we are absolutely going to defend taking action on climate change,” Albanese said. “I could not – I could not look my son in the eye and walk away from taking action on climate change. Some things are absolutely vital, not just for now, but for future generations. There is a cost to carbon. There is a cost. The question is: do we pass it on to future generations or do we, as this generation, take responsibility? I believe we have to do that. We have supported an emissions trading scheme for a very long time. And certainly I was elected on a mandate again yesterday with a swing to me on the issue of taking action on climate change.”

    ‘Shorten also said Labor would stick with its core belief that “there should be a price on carbon pollution” and had a “’mandate from its supporters to be true to its values”.

    Lenore Taylor in the Guardian

  317. Debbie says

    Well. . . to let you into a secret. . . I am married to a Stu 🙂

    Let me assure you. . . . not a bit like the gutter snipe on deltoid or Stuart Broad.

    Gotta agree eg. . . Deltoid definitely looks like groundhog day.
    I get your point about ‘sharpen the sword’.
    They are definitely giving you lots of practice.

  320. Robert says

    Oh no! Tell Mr Debs I was just joking about Stuarts, especially if he can fight. (I’m serious about Tristans though.)

    Lenore Taylor in the Guardian might eat up all that goose grease about mandates and values and Lights on Hills, but I grew up around Labor people. Albo and Shorten are both eyeing that greasy pole and wondering who should go first. If they cared about their kids’ futures they wouldn’t leave behind gaping deficits and IR systems where ordinary businesses think hiring staff is riskier than dismantling landmines. You might still get a dinkum Labor man like Martin Ferguson, but a typical NSW Labor insider like Albanese thinks the public is a joke. Really, if Albanese was reading what I’m writing now he wouldn’t get angry. He would just laugh. He’s impervious. Couldn’t care less.

    Light on the Bloody Hill indeed!

  322. el gordo says

    ‘The model provides a plausible depiction of processes in the climate system causing the hiatus periods, and indicates that a hiatus period is a relatively common climate phenomenon and may be linked to La Niña-like conditions.’

    That would be natural variability, then.