Global temperatures this year will be lower than in 2007 due to the cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said.
The World Meteorological Organisation’s secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into the summer.
This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory.
But experts have also forecast a record high temperature within five years, probably associated with another episode of El Nino.
BBC website: Global temperatures ‘to decrease’
UPDATE – The Ministry of Truth have now changed the BBC headline to:
Global warming ‘dips this year’
AND the text has been changed too, including the removal of, “probably associated with another episode of El Nino.”
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
WMO 3rd April-
Drought has plagued many countries across sub-Saharan Africa, causing water shortages and damaging crops and threatening food security.
“But if more is invested in developing the observational capacities of their national meteorological and hydrological services, improved weather forecasts, improved early warnings of imminent natural hazards and climate change can be made available to decision-makers and end-users,” the statement added.
Mr. Jarraud said that at present, however, African meteorological services could not perform those critical functions.
“Serious gaps still exist in observation networks, often due to instrument and systems failure, as well as the high costs of operation and maintenance,”
http://www.myjoyonline.com/technology/200804/14993.asp
I do not know whether it is resolved whether La Nina is a cause or an effect.
This does not explain why the oceans have apparently been cooling for the last 4 years.
There is apparently about a 75% correlation [from memory] between TSI and planetary temperature lagged 5 years. Hence we have not yet seen the full effect of a quietening sun.
All we need now is a decent volcanic eruption somewhere, and temperatures might really start to plummet..
This raises the problem of what causes a volcanic eruption, since by definition any volcanic eruption is the result of a very localised increase in mantle heat-flow under the volcanoe.
Radioactive decay, by definition, cannot do this and plate tectonics isn’t supported by the evidence, so what physical force could possibly surge in amount to cause sub-crustal melting?
(Hint: volcanic eruptions are usually preceded by unusual geomagnetic activity, and magnetic fields are associated with electric currents – the two are inseparable – and we know that, every thing else being equal, electric currents when passing through resistive loads generate heat, and when the current is increased enough, can cause melting of the electric conductor (reason why fuses work)).
UPDATE – The Ministry of Truth have now changed the BBC headline to:
Global warming ‘dips this year’
AND the text has been changed too, including the removal of, “probably associated with another episode of El Nino.”
Louis,
Volcanic eruptions (at least the violent ones) are the result of magma (usually the more siliceous types) reaching the surface. The source of magma for the violent eruptions is, more often than not, a partial melt of rock caused by the subduction of crustal material. This crustal material is laden with water and the fact that the water is in the rock enhances the melting. These blobs of molten magma slowly make their way to the surface usually through an existing plumbing system.
The actually eruption takes place when the pressure of either the magma itself or fluids driven off during crystallization of the magma exceed the pressure of the overlying column of rock. If you can predict this moment via geomagnetic activity, you should become very rich.
However, even by monitoring seismic activity along with a multitude of other precursors, the exact moment of eruption, especially a violent one, is extremely difficult, if not impossible to predict.
Sorry about the rant.
“This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory.”
No, those “some” never accepted it in the first place.
Paul,
Subduction has been demonstrated a fantasy, and I would suggest you study the various published papers on the New Concepts in Global Tectonics web site http://www.ncgt.org. Even the main proponents of the theory admit it.
Secondly the fluctuations in the geomagnetic field are, first and foremost, field observations, and indeed some researchers are thinking about refining these measurements to see if indeed volcanic eruptions are predictable.
I would also do a search on papers by Christopher Smoot, Bruce Leybourne etc (they have web sites) in which they look at oceanic floor heat flows and other sundry inconvenient measurements and observations.
SJT,
It’s the questioning of anthropogenic global warming theory, not the weasel phrase of “climate-change”.
he he.
The narrow hypothesis in search of the illusive data and even a name that will stand still.
Louis it’s new name is “Weasel Warming” and it’s second name is “Cat and Mouse Colding”.
Louis,
Who demonstrated subduction to be a fantasy?
And more importantly can you explain how mountains form? How do ocean floor rocks get to the surface (eg in Oman, New Zealand, or Newfoundland)? Why does the Pacific Ring of Fire exist? Why are volcanoes in the ocean very different to those in continents? Why do the lava compositions of continental (eg Andean) show evidence of contamination from oceanic water?
In interesting news:
http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0804/full/climate.2008.29.html
This appesr to be the death knell of Global warming. Watch the rabbits run
more on the BBC: http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=153
vg – “This appesr to be the death knell of Global warming. Watch the rabbits run”
Yes just like this is the death of the Stock Market
http://www.asx.com.au/investor/warrants/tools/library/tech_analysis_market_dips.htm
So you would of course now advise all people with shares to sell them all as the stock market dipping in one year means that it will go down now forever and never rise again.
No wait! Don’t you make money by ignoring the dips and peaks and going for the long haul were market fundamentals mean that stocks over a long time period will rise?
Hmmmm perhaps the climate also is not determined by the peaks and troughs but the overall long term trend which has not changed.
Ender! I think you just proved his point!
A stupidest comparison could not be made if one tried!
You are running!
Very funny Ender, you have been preaching The.End.Of.The.World for too long and now you have jumped on the Ben Graham value investing pulpit.
Hows that windmill of yours going, got it out of the box yet?
Marcus Welby MD – “A stupidest comparison could not be made if one tried!”
I thought it apt for the audience!
BTW why is it stupid? It is simply another example of a situation where one years trend does not determine the overall long term trend.
Ender, very simple!
CC, globular warmening, call it what you will, supposed to be based on some sort of science.
The stock market is anything but!!!
And if someone tells you otherwise, send them to me!
I know very little of a lot of things, but I do know a fair bit of the market, as it happens I am making my living from it!
The BBC changed the headline back to the original, but not the text – I’ll try an FOI request, if it applies to the BBC – Biased Broadcasting Corporation.
Report: BBC ‘radically altered’ article after publication to downplay cooling global temps
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2008/04/06/bbc-changes-temperatures-decrease-article-incite-climate-hysteria
White House Pushes Back, Details Bias in Times Page 1 Hit Job BBC Changes ‘Temperatures Decrease’ Article to Incite Climate Hysteria By Noel Sheppard | April 6, 2008 – 11:42 ET On Saturday, NewsBusters shared with readers a BBC.com report that astoundingly proclaimed “Global Temperatures ‘To Decrease.'”Some time after this was posted, the third paragraph of the original piece was changed in a fashion that radically altered the meaning of the entire article (picture courtesy AP).In fact, what was once a realistic portrayal of new data released by the World Meteorological Organization suddenly became another hysterical report espousing doom and gloom at the hands of manmade global warming.
Here was how the piece began before Saturday’s edits (emphasis added):Story Continues Below Ad ↓Global temperatures will drop slightly this year as a result of the cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said. The World Meteorological Organization’s secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into the summer. This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory.
For the record, a website called Gribbit’s Word cut and pasted those three opening paragraphs exactly the same way on Friday at 12:19 PM. Yet, some time on Saturday after NewsBusters posted its piece at 12:22 PM, the third paragraph was mysteriously changed to this (emphasis added):But this year’s temperatures would still be way above the average – and we would soon exceed the record year of 1998 because of global warming induced by greenhouse gases. Some difference, wouldn’t you agree? Maybe more fascinating is that the time stamp at the top of the article doesn’t reflect that any changes were made since Gribbit or I cut and pasted the version we shared with our readers: “Page last updated at 00:42 GMT, Friday, 4 April 2008 01:42 UK.”For those unfamiliar, 00:42 GMT on Friday would be 7:42 PM EST Thursday. So, according to BBC.com, this piece was last updated our Thursday evening.Yet, Gribbit’s cut and paste Friday afternoon, and mine on Saturday afternoon, are different than what one now sees if you click on the links we both posted for this piece. And, since mine was posted at 12:22 PM Saturday, it means this third paragraph was changed at least 40 hours after the last “official” update.Why? Was someone at the BBC displeased with the tenor of this piece, but didn’t want folks to know it was being altered so long after it had been posted? —Noel Sheppard is an economist, business owner, and Associate Editor of NewsBusters.roundup
Ender: There’s no fool like old fool it has been said.You had better check your pension fund and maybe scout around for bit of employment just in case the ASX ancient history lesson you dredged up should go pear shaped. http://www.kitco.com/ind/dorsch/apr032008.html Might be a good place start, where the up chart busts you and so do the down charts.
Cheers!
Marcus Welby MD “The stock market is anything but!!!”
Oh – I thought it was based on the science of economics? Are you telling me now economics is not a science?
“I know very little of a lot of things, but I do know a fair bit of the market, as it happens I am making my living from it!”
So that good Marcus. I am glad you know about the market and therefore you are not selling all your shares because you know perfectly well that one years dip does not make a trend.
There is another group of professionals called climate scientists who know as much about the climate and how it works as you do about the stock market. They also are not concerned about a one year dip in global temperatures as this is to be expected in a La Nina year and equally does not set the trend for the long term.
The question is would you go to a climate scientist for advice about the stock market? So why do you claim to know more about climate science than the professional people working to find out about the climate?
wjp – “Might be a good place start, where the up chart busts you and so do the down charts. ”
Really wjp – the stock market dips and peaks however the trend so far has been a steady upward rise?
Does the term fish in a barrel mean anything to you?
Ender: It so happens I pretty well sold out August 07.Does that make me a gun?
Ender,
“Are you telling me now economics is not a science?”
Are you joking or being serious!?
I am not an economist, but I’d be surprised if anyone claimed, economics to be “science”?
The basic idea of the stock market is sound.
If not for the greedy speculators, the movements would be small and only reflect supply and demand situations. (apart from some failed ventures of course)
Take CC for instance, if you really believe in it and have a penchant for gambling, you could make some real money betting on futures, that depended on climate, whether.
Of course if you all, got it wrong, you could lose your shirt also.
Some people are doing this very thing, but they are also clever and using other peoples’ money!
“Subduction has been demonstrated a fantasy”
WHAAAAT???
Have you studied to much mobile belt cratonic geology Louis?
Keep digging, Ender, it will be one hell of a grave when you are done.
Meanwhile back at the temperature decline, yes, regardless of cause, we are overdue for another major eruption. And given the past few have coincided with El Ninos, the next one is more likely to be during a La Nina. That is, cooling an already cooled planet.
At which point those dwindling tribes of Bimbolopithicus climatensis will look for a scapegoat among them to be sacrificed to an indifferent deity. Might one suggest Hansen?
These cuts CANNOT happen naturally.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_7310000/newsid_7313200/7313260.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&asb=1&news=1&bbcws=1
Interesting comments: Greenland Icesheet melting in the NE sector has now been confirmed to be from underlying geothermal causes by Ohio State Univ. A wealth of information continues to stream in confirming the importance of a natural driver of global warming and may eventually establish endogenous energy supplies to geothermal reservoirs via the joule spike mechanism as a principal element in global climate change. The latest confirmation is geothermal melting of the Greenland Icesheet (von Frese et al., web reports from studies at Ohio State University). In addition, volcanic activity under the active melt regions of Antarctica; inner core jerks associated with the “Great Pacific Climate Change” in the early 1970’s; seismic links to El Nino established by Walker in the late 1980’s; CO2 lagging the heat peaks in ice core data by 600-800 years and lagging five years in modern geophysical proxies (Quinn, unpublished); many known climatic links to sun spot activity and orbital parameters which have not been explained by solar light intensity variations; CO2 liquid bubbles the size of basketballs ascending from deep ocean trenches documented by Pacific Marine Environmental Labs at Washington State; earthquake swarms in the Mediterranean associated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and ocean circulation reversals during the 2003 European heat wave which caused over a thousand deaths; earthquake swarms Nov. 2002 in Alaska preceding huge snow melts causing the Iditarod dog sled race to move further north in 2003; the last 3 of the 9.0 + earthquakes associated with killer hurricanes in the Gulf Coast… Besty-1965 preceded by 9+ Chile 1964 earthquake, Camille-1969 preceded by 9+ Alaskan 1969 earthquake, and Katrina-2005 preceded by 9+ Indonesian 2004 earthquake; increased lightning strike anomalies preceding the intersection of 3 hurricanes in central Florida in 2004; and anomalous lightning along the Wiggins arch preceding hurricane Katrina 2005; melting of the Artic ice cap directly over the underlying mid-ocean ridge warming confirmed by deep ocean profiles; SST anomalies reflecting the underlying ridge configurations in the eastern Pacific and the Guaymas basin rift during 1998 El Nino; deep double layered thermoclines associated with warm sterile (hydrothermal) waters off the coast of Peru found in deep ocean profiles during the 1982 El Nino; simultaneous worldwide squid and marine mammal deaths and beachings in the late summer 2002, wildfire outbreaks during coronal mass ejections in 1859 fires in Europe and Western U.S. destroyed telegraph systems, in 2003 wildfire storm in Southern California. Just to name a few items linked to the electrical driver and tectonic modulator of climate change. Greenhouse gasers are poofting up the wrong proverbial tree.