Hi Jennifer,
Some photographs of last Wednesday’s snow storm in the Tinderries.
This is the second one in two weeks and both were widespread in the Queanbeyan River/Badga/Murrumbidgee Catchments.
The weather charts suggest some more precipitation over the weekend.
Long time locals say that this has similarities to the late fifties, early sixties when they managed to leave the district a few times through each winter due to snow.
Might have to invest in a skidoo!
Cheers,
Allan
Upper Murrumbidgee
Australia
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Full marks for that roo shot Allan. It’s what this country is really all about.
Great photos Allan, yesterday’s SMH carried a story of a woman at Michelago being rescued by skidoo in deep snow and blizzard conditions.
Shouldn’t be happening according to the ‘Global Warming Industry’. These events are supposed to be getting less and less in frequency and intensity, with the snowline getting higher and higher into the alps as the world warms up.
Watch for the following comments.- “You can’t confuse climate with weather”; “Just an extreme anomoly” ; “An increase in extreme weather events is all part of global warming”. Ho hum.
Yet the same people were blaming last year’s lack of snow on global warming,… So you can’t win!
It would be a lot nearer the truth, to say that last winter, and this winter, are all within the norm.
Sid’s comment is utterly stupid. Illustrates his complete ignorance of the issue at hand and why it’s pointless even discussing AGW with him.
(1) AGW does imply a monotonic continual rise in temperature – how many times in the last 30 years has temperature dipped back only to rise again.
(2) AGW (as I have done a theme post on here previous) does not imply it will never be cold again or there will be no more cold snaps
(3) Regardless of what Sid says (as he only cherry picks – still waiting for that percentile analysis that you did a runner on Sid) – the frequency of cold events is indeed getting fewer, the lower percentile band is changing – a number of studies show that.
(4) Somehow loopy loops think that we’re supposed to have continuous calamities and continual warmth because AGW has just started to kick in. That’s right – just started – CO2 growth has a long way to go. We’re just beginning.
So all this goes to illustrate that your average denialist ning nong doesn’t get it. And given it’s either against their spiritual, economic or political religion – it’s pointless trying to debate or reason with them. It’s not that they don’t have the intellectual ability to contemplate what’s being said – simply the science will be ignored to satisfy a religious position.
“Shouldn’t be happening according to the ‘Global Warming Industry’. ” – oh yea – please put up the actual quote that says that Sid or be a big liar.
You have the whole 4AR at your disposal. So put up time. You’ve made the assertion – back it up !!
Sid says “It would be a lot nearer the truth, to say that last winter, and this winter, are all within the norm” but as I watch the North end of the Brindies are being enveloped by a big ground hugging snow cloud. It looks as black underneath as the 2003 bushfire. However I suspect it’s just a temporary inversion as my trusty max/min reading is 11.5 and we are bathed in bright afternoon sunshine. “Just an extreme anomaly” hey.
Folks, this sure is a land of extremes and anomalies. While the Tinderry coped a blanket or two this winter the Namadgi remains a dark shade of blue. Note; Canberra sits in between. Take a good look at that roo pic, there is probably more snow round here above 600 m than there is above 1000 m. Also note how the bush beyond Allan’s roo remains more typical of summer than winter.
All the rivers near Allan, say the Queanbeyan and Strike A Light would have been a mere trickle for moons in some of the harshest grazing country developed since Euro settlement. Domestic stock struggled for years and this makes our Monaro district a mean place for farming.
After arriving from the rich districts of NW Tasmania I wondered why anyone bothered clearing much above 600 m around here when everything has to grow between a rock and a hard place all the time. In twenty five years it got drier and dryer. A very full Lake George disappeared. I bet a study of that place can tell a story.
Sid: When things come and go it’s more about the duration than the level at one time or another. Try our river crossings for starters.
It’s pointless discussing anything with people who continually spout armageddonist eco-hype. Disposal is the best action to take with AR4.
Just as it’s pointless discussing anything with people who sprout political denialist bullshit and try-ons. Best action is to outlaw all contrarian movements.
I was wondering if anyone had found a site that had the ACTEW pluviometer and reservoir inflow readings?
I know that EcoWise are the Hydrologists for ACTEW, but they don’t seem to have public access to these figures.
Gavins comment about the farming land in this area,Queanbeyan, Badga, Numeralla, Bredbo,etc catchments, is too general.
Most of the land in the valleys has been held mostly by multi-generational family concerns.
One 10K acre property in the Kybeyan area is going to auction with $6 million expectations (Willmott Pines?).
As in any area, the most productive land is tightly held and the “pretty” land is sold off to blockies or goes into the National Park reserve system.
To put some context to 600 metre contour level in the Canberra area, the north end of the main runway at Canberra airfield is 571m in elevation.
As I sit here looking towards the Brindies this Sunday morning, all the 1900m hills have acquired a good head of snow overnight.
And to Master Luke, :-), is the breaking or going into a drought a change in climate or a change in the weather or is there another cyclical level?
Allan – Just a seasonal change for the better. An inevitable flip in the pattern. But don’t relax too quickly – the next drought is always out there.
It’s worth reflecting a bit now we have had some rainfall.
A 5 year or so drought sequence that broke records in places. Some El Ninos – and neutral years that also didn’t rain. So some observations and modelling that ties up with climate change. But against a backdrop of paleo records with longer drought sequences.
So the drought that hopefully is breaking, has also broken some records. But enough to convince people on AGW – probably not?
If you want to nail the climate change angle – wait another 50 years and see how much of the time we’ve been in drought.
P.S. South east Queensland dam catchments still have had virtually no relief. Still waiting and hoping.
Thanks Luke.
As Sir Humphrey mused “in the fullness of time”
Allan: There is no contest re your local property knowledge and mine. Also; I ‘m very dependent on your scouting round the mountains at this moment, as I’m completely confined to base with a severe dose of winter ill. Enjoy that snow for me please.
Some smart folks may understand the other hazard; we can’t take the family hatch far round the back in this country because many of the roads were just rocks and dust. That brings up another guess on my part; any moisture remaining today will be blown away by tonight in this rather wild weather.
“in the fullness of time” depends somewhat on our expectations. Googong dam will take a while to fill even at this rate but what is perhaps more of a concern for the average Murrumbidgee farmer is the rate of all dam overflows into Burrinjuck. Further back in the Alps it’s the low level of our big artificial hydro Lake Eucumbene then of course round the far side of the Divide; Lake Hume on that trickle called the Murray. A snow fall is but one step in recovering ground water.
Luke: Records for both dry and wet in short succession indicate big fluctuations in energy levels over critical water mass. Suck and blow with each low makes me think SE Aus is in for a wild ride till this hemisphere settles. But it may never settle as we wish.
Gavin, I don’t know about “dry and wet in short succession” … I thought we had just had a really long drought? Wasn’t someone saying longest on record because of AGW.
Jen – The problem is how would you know? You’ve had long droughts before in the paleo record. But you do also have both observations and modelling of anthropogenic influence. We simply don’t know enough (yet).
One thing is for sure, the temperature peak of 1998 is not going to be exceeded this year. And as the recent few years have been El Nino’s like 1998 but didn’t exceed 1998, we can rule out next year as well.
And for reasonable men and women that makes a downward trend in the face of a decade of increased CO2, doesn’t it?
But don’t expect to see the two clowns in a tinnie floating down the “once (in a decade) mighty Murray”.
Interesting to note that even with all this rain, http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/even-in-the-rain-the-dry-holds-on/2007/07/01/1183228960465.html
more towns move on to stage 4 restrictions.
Ian – check out any GCM modelling run with increased CO2 – you won’t see a monotonic rise in temperature every year. How many times in the last 30 years would you have said the trend is cooling. Answer quite a few. The trend is your friend. So you think you’ve got a trend eh?
Sounds like the warming you have when there isn’t any warming. Spin.
Sounds like when you hear what you don’t want to hear, that’s the standard rationalisation.
Sounds like Ian is clueless again. Check the trend for the 30 years – how many times would you have called wolf. You should be in the Inca period where you could worship Sun Gods.
Jennifer: According to my birthday callers, large volumes of water dumped twice over Gippsland completely missed the Island to the south.
I was intending yesterday to post more thoughts on continuing weather contrasts based on my view that recent big lows have been drawn north from their traditional path down in the roaring forties however Auntie ran the story for us.
“It’s official – Tasmanians last month shivered their way through one of the coldest and driest Junes on record” see our ABC
http://origin.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/07/02/1967574.htm?site=idx-tas
NB this “May was a record warm month so it was a bit of a contrast,”
Also see this ABC story today “Tasmanian farmers want more rain!
If you look at the high quality data sets on the BOM most every station you look at indicates a very dry period for the first 40 years of last century. Much drier than the last twenty or so. I have photos of camels, cars and people (having picnics) on the bed of the river Murray near Mildura in 1914. My Aunty saw lake George as dry as it is now in 1931.
Not only June in Tassie setting cold records, but also over a fair spread of the mainland. Daily we hear of new record lows from various parts, the latest example is Griffith NSW, setting a new all-time record June low of -4deg., beating the previous June low record of -3.4deg. set in 1958.
It will be interesting to see the BoM’s June report. And the prominance given to it in the media, compared with that given to the report on the warm May!
Following a very cold May in southern Africa, involving heavy early snow in some parts, one notes that June has also been colder than usual in wide spread areas, with Jo’burg copping a 4″ dumping of snow, being the heaviest since Sept. 1981.
The fact that batches of Antarctic weather gets sucked far North through the slip streams over the great southern oceans is not new but it’s my view it only happens after considerable energy is built up one way or another.
The creation of these larger vortexes is not well understood. Even with modern science and computer models no one accurately predicted the sudden switch over Bass Strait and the Tasman. The net result is business, governments and emergency services can’t cope with repeated bizarre events such as we had in Gippsland.
A tour round the Coast via the Princess Highway; even travelling between storms becomes a hazardous experience. Who wants a quick holiday at Lakes Entrance, plenty of boating assured?
Bloggers depending on averages beware!
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