I flew to Melbourne and drove out to Halls Gap (western Victoria) yesterday morning, past Ballarat where it was snowing! There was no mention of global warming on the local radio stations, just mention of the unusually cold weather.
Anyway, today, this morning, I visited a friend with a farm in the Glenelg Hopkins catchment. Their winter wheat and canola crops had failed because of the drought and across the district was being converted into hay for the sheep.
A bailed failed wheat crop.
Ba ah ah.
Bone dry Lake Buninjon.
About Ararat.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Your horizons are tilted Jen ;op
And Yes, I´m one of the international tilted horizon Police before you ask 😉
Leans to the right..?
Hey George, Thanks for the tip. And what about some pics with ‘good horizons’ from the top of the world? But I gather the whaling is going to start again soon at the bottom? Have you any photo from Antarctica? What about a guest post?
So this drought must be caused by the pending ice age?
There’s a great little image of the reason for the icy blast at http://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/jetstream/jetstream_sohem/0611/06111500_jetstream_sohem.gif .
Interesting slant on ABC radio news – yesterday it was the first November snow in Qld since 1941 numerous times. This morning 1941 seemed to have vanished.
Well Jen, I did hear it last night on television in Sydney, a weather presenter commented “with ‘global warming’ we have to get used to these snowstorms”!!! Wow! Does that mean that if one believes in ‘global cooling’, one must expect extreme heatwaves??
One reason for this icy blast could be that Al Gore is back in town to train the Apostles of his new fundamentalist Green Religion to go out in two by twos to convert all AGW ‘deniers’ like you and me. Maybe “Hughie” is having a bit of fun with Al and co!
It reminds one of the COP 11 Conference in Montreal in Nov./Dec. last year, when a large gathering of eco warriors turned up for a big demo. The only problem was that Montreal turned on it’s coldest first week in December for over 70 years and our ardent and ill clad warriors were holding their placards and chanting “It’s hot here, it’s hot here, there’s too much carbon in the atmosphere”…..in blizzard conditions with the temperature at minus twenty two deg. a near record low. One newspaper reporter at the time quipped that “Montreal must have been moved to planet Goofy where it was perfectly normal for people to walk around in sub zero conditions, complaining about the heat.”
It was a cold morning but warmed up later, in the Hunter all they could say was “coldest November day since 2001”
Media monitors say that all the press coverage of climate change + Iraq + drought + Okopoulous + High Court IR ruling + GWB + Hilaly + WorkChoices dont come near press coverage for cricket and the Ashes.
Global warming concerns have always included more erratic weather, not just warmer temperatures overall. Some places may experience more rainfall but to the point erosion is more problematic or annulled by a higher evaporation rate.
Another nail for your coffin Mr Bolt et el?
Julian, if you were any more than 5% of your way up the climate learning curve you would know that, generally, all rainfall is, “annulled by a higher evaporation rate”, as you put it. The only bits of rain that are not “annulled” by evapotranspiration is ground water infiltration and runoff.
So if that piece of written white noise constitutes a nail for “Mr Bolt et al’s coffin” then I must repectfully suggest that the nail in question is your own thumbnail.
The SBS News bimbo, in a blatant attempt at trying to minimise the relevance of the snow story stated that “scientists are adamant that this has nothing to do with global warming”. Which of course, is the first truthful statement by that bunch of eurospiv propagandistas, ever.
But they then followed up with one of those moronic BBC type shonkumentaries about Masai herdsmen who have had to resort to cultivating crops to survive, wait for it, the impact of global warming.
And they presented it as some sort of grand tragedy that these nomadic herdsmen might make the same transition that most other nomads have made, for similar reasons, over the past nine millenia.
I wonder if this is the latest green version of the biblical fall from grace. Herding animals on common land with no private ownership is noble while boosting production for a larger population by cultivating privately held gardens is the fall from grace. So now we are preserving Masai in a time warp for metropolitan TV land.
The best bit was when they asked the kids in the open air classroom whether their family had lost any animals in the drought. And surprise, surprise, they all put their hand up. As if any herd owner could go through any drought without losing an animal or two.
But that, too, was provided as evidence of global warming and it actually passes for intellectual penetration for your average reader of the Guardian Weekly.
Despite this cold snap, global warming is a fact. With out resorting to temperature figures, which shows an undisputable rise over the past 15 years, an alternative is to examine the number of cold records versus the number of hot ones. This data come courtesy the Bureau of Meteorology:
High maximum records – 183;
High minimum records – 88;
Total record highs – 271;
Low maximum records – 32;
Low minimum records – 214;
Total record lows – 246.
Ideally the number of high records should be the same as the number of lows. Interesting is the high number of record low minima. This suggests our climate has grown drier over the past 15 years (lower atmospheric moisture means lower dew points), while the high number of high maxima tells that days have become warmer.
The question that remains unanswered is whether the warming we are experiencing is related to rises CO2 from human activity (AGW) or some natural cycle. If you look at the web site ‘realclimate.org’ you can debate with people who claim to be climate scientists. They say that AGW is a scientific fact, and even go so far as to say that we are facing catastrophic GW. Notwithstanding, Jennifer is correct that no matter what Australia does to reduce carbon emission won’t make any difference to the big picture as long as China and the USA take no action.
“Interesting slant on ABC radio news – yesterday it was the first November snow in Qld since 1941 numerous times. This morning 1941 seemed to have vanished.”
Email response from one in the area (some spelling ammended):-
ABC seemingly is more and more becoming Absolute Bluddy Crud. The PC rubbish you hear on it at times.
Holey doley – if it can get as cold as this with all that CO2 in the air that proves AGW is rubbish. Louis was right all along.
Yes Ian,
I saw the Masai drought story. As far as I know, that part of Africa has always been seasonally dry. The reporter did not delve into Malthusian explanations for their plight. Is population increase in Africa still over 4% p.a., or doubling every 15 years?
Well good for you Robert, when you go over to realclimate can you take Luke, hes been dieing to say something but lacks the bottle
and stinki
…a TV “weather presenter commented “with ‘global warming’…”
Of course that’s the 1st source you’d quote to make a point about climate matters. Intellectual penetration indeed.
Robert,
I agree that the current extraordinary conditions don’t contradict the evidence that the world has been heating up for a couple of decades. What is exasperating ( and lends weight to the accusations of scaremongering ) is that if we had experienced record HIGH temperatures instead we would undoubtedly be hearing from true believers how that WAS evidence of global warming.
Just as Katrina was cited as same.
The climate systems are obviously complicated and influenced by many factors we don’t understand.
In my view , the credibility of advocates of AGW would be enhanced if they acknowledged that.
Friday Funnies, talking the talk with Al Gore
By John Ferguson
Thursday, November 16, 2006 at 01:38pm
Hilarious effort by Al Gore today when he visited Premier Steve Bracks at 1 Treasury Place.
Gore arrived in a greenhouse-friendly Toyota Prius.
Bracks was outside with his deputy John Thwaites when a cramped Gore arrived.
Bracks: ‘’Good to see you in a hybrid.’’
Gore (confused): “Pardon me?’’
Bracks: “A hybrid, is it?’’
Gore: “Yes, yes it is. I’m trying to walk the walk.’’
Shortly after 11am, Gore left. This time talking the talk in a thirsty Ford Fairlane.
Should Gore have kept his hybrid?
Robert, all you’ve suggeted by your posting is that cloud cover has reduced. This causes higher maximums and lower minimums!
Also, you claim global warming is a fact. Does that mean “climate change” is also a fact? If so, is that according to the UN FCC definition, the IPCC definition or the commonly understanding of the words “climate” and “change”? These meanings vary to such an extent that I can say “Climate change is happening and climate change is not happening.” Where does that leave any discussion?
“Hey George, Thanks for the tip. And what about some pics with ‘good horizons’ from the top of the world?”
bit busy at the mo but I´ll see what I can dig up.. I figure that If I can get level horizons at sea from a bouncy boat,landlubbers should be able to as well ( pet peeve ..LOL )
“But I gather the whaling is going to start again soon at the bottom? Have you any photo from Antarctica?”
Nope – never been there .. yet… still trying though = on someone else´s tab 😉
“What about a guest post?”
Funnily enough 😉 … I´ve been putting together something on how utterly useless anti whaling actions at sea have been the last decade or so …. just need to get a few more refences and background info and it will wing its way down under …
Robert, you blew your creds with me the moment you had the gall to quote “climate” data from a 15 year interval. Get real fella. You may have some excuse in the fact that even the BOM has resorted to 15 year data sets when it has long been accepted that anything less than a 30 year interval was blatant cherry picking.
What next, chooks guts?
Of course, the reason Al Gore supports Kyoto is that he is from a long established wealthy family who, under Kyoto, can retain their shareholdings in high emission corporations while the factories themselves shift to non-listed countries and maintain their emissions.
You see, it is generally regarded as not very cool to shift entire factories overseas and there is quite often a consumer backlash. But Kyoto hands all the slick operators an opportunity to dump the communities that built their wealth and shift to the third world with no repercussions.
Does anyone seriously think the Gores, the Kennedys and the Rockerfellers will make any sacrifices for the public good? Give me a break.
Looks as though CO2 is only half as effective down south compared to up north. Maybe heat rises! A cool 17th century:
Five centuries of climate change in Australia:
the view from underground
HENRY N. POLLACK,1* SHAOPENG HUANG1 and JASON E. SMERDON2
1 Department of Geological Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
2 Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 21 pp. 701–706.
ISSN 0267–8179.
Received 30 January 2006; Revised 14 June 2006; Accepted 19 June 2006
ABSTRACT: Fifty-seven borehole temperature profiles from across Australia are analysed to reconstruct a ground surface temperature history for the past five centuries. The five-hundred-year reconstruction is characterised by a temperature increase of approximately 0.5 K, with most of the warming occurring in the 19th and 20th centuries. The 17th century was the coolest interval of the five-century reconstruction. Comparison of the geothermal reconstruction to the Australian annual
surface air temperature time series in their period of overlap shows excellent agreement. The full geothermal reconstruction also agrees well with the low-frequency component of dendroclimatic reconstructions from Tasmania and New Zealand. The warming of Australia over the past five centuries is only about half that experienced by the continents of the Northern Hemisphere in the same time interval.
Sigh .. .. try more oceans. The rise is what is expected. Read Jen’s archives. Sigh .. ..
Good point, Luke. So why doesn’t the IPCC accounting standards allow us to claim for the unambiguous net carbon sink that is our territorial oceans?
If absorption by territorial waters were included in GH accounting then Tuvallu would be so awash in carbon credits that they could pay to import enough dirt to raise their entire nation an extra 2 metres above sea level.
But that wouldn’t help the Belgians, Dutch and Swiss much would it? Better to produce GH refugees to reinforce the propaganda message.
Indeed, given that the southern hemisphere produces only 4% of the worlds pollutants, and the certainty that our oceans and atmosphere can deal with these levels easily, then WE don’t have a problem.
But true to historical form, the Europeans will convert opinion into ideology and then go to extreme measures to force this ideology on the rest of the world. Colonialism, Imperialism, Communism, Fascism, Environmentalism, plus ca change. All we need now is the scapegoating and the ethnic cleansing.
If I can see a buck, I’m in Motty. How do you propose we manage the flux of oceanic CO2? And what of all that missing CO2, how to accoutn for that? I bet it’s sinking in the Bemuda triangle.
Problem with the oceans is that it’s part of the biospheric or business as usual background. Try that and the whole boreal region will be claiming native conifer projects and praire dog activity. Of course if you seeded the ocean with iron filing dust and caused more planktonic activity and you could guarantee the sunk carbon stayed sunk you might get a show (if you took off the CO2 cost of flying it there).
So begs an interesting question – how would you like to divide up the CO2 issue – per nation state, Byron Shire basis, per capita, per GDP, per hemisphere. I think our good mates who supply us with Kmart goodies have told us it’s per capita !
Ian,
your comments reveal that you are either ignorant, or that you cannot interpret data. Cherry picking? Balderdash. That the temperatures have risen over 15 years is related to a 30 year base. Why don’t you look at the data yourself here http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/timeseries.cgi . 15 years is not an insignifcant period in the context of 95 years of reliable observations.
Did anyone see the Megastructures Documentary on National Geographic Channel on Friday?
http://www.nationalgeographic.com.au/watch/default.aspx?currentdate=06_11_17
(Click on the video preview of the program).
It was about the resurrection of the Ice hotel in Arctic Sweden which takes place in November each year.The ICE hotel stands until it melts away in May and the water is returned to the river. I was wondering how this building would rate for sustainability?
The builders of this ephemeral megastructure made of blocks of 2 cubic meters of ices harvested out of the Torne River would know if the temperature was rising in Arctic Sweden.
Luke when I posed a varient of this question sometime earlier, Jen responded that she thought per capita sounded fair.
But that’ll never happen while the wealthy minority hold the balance of world influence. Big business would never suppport it either, it’s too democratic.
“not very cool to shift entire factories overseas” happens regularly without Kyoto, no excuse needed, businesses chase cheapest labour, hence US and Aust remain heavily commodity economies.
Motty needs to update and lift his view. Urbanites and greenies are no more self-interested than rural folk. Motty talks as if there’s a deliberate agenda by greenies to destroy farmers – not at all paranoid eh? He and supporters have very reasons to feel that way but it doesn’t help them at all to misdiagnose the nature of the problem.
Unwelcome though this perspective is, farmers like many others are coping with broader structural change and accompanying reduction in liberties, as with unemployed manufacturing workers, people who can’t afford education or a basic house, people in the cities who can’t fart without a permit and millions of people who lack basic human rights. The big squeeze. Govt is too small to deal with the big problems & too big too deal with the local problems. Federal govts all over want to claw back more powers while grappling with the push to delegate more powers upwards to international institutions and US demands. Powerful businesses corporatise governance (eg Murdoch influences elections and public ICT policy). Global markets permit mobile money and capital and force global wages to equalise in undifferentiated markets. Concentrating power & $$ influences govt agendas and politicises science and education. “It’s the system man!” puff puff. Businesses and industries and individual livelihoods fall by the wayside all over the place. It’s an unwelcome perspective because it runs much deeper than slandering a few greenies or bureaucrats. This is why you feel like you’re banging your head against a tree. Motty you forgot to include Nationalism and Ruralism on your list.
Robert, in climate terms 15 years is a Lizards fart in a bush fire. It is cherry picking.
Pinxie, I won’t bother with the whole list of specifically anti-rural measures being applied by urban dominated governments. But would you care to tell me what proportion of urban land owners have been subject to legislation setting aside a third to half of their houseblock for public good purposes without compensation?
This line that “it is just the way things are” is pure metrocentric tripe. If it is, just the way things are, then there would be no reason at all for urban voters to oppose regional self governance, would there?
If there is no substance to our claims of exploitation, market manipulation, wealth concentration through governance concentration, double standards in viability tests for infrastructure investment, and downright criminal neglect of rural health and other services, then all you ever have to do to shut us up is agree to new regional states within the commonwealth. And if you are proven to be right then you can all say “we told you so”.
The fact is, few in the urban community want to put it to the test. Why is that, Pinxie?
Saying “it is just the way things are”, I agree would be pure metrocentric tripe. I was saying the opposite of that, but saying that you take too narrow and personal a view of the issues.
You’ll be ecstatic to know that I fully support the idea of locally organised and autonomous regions within countries (important for democracy & economy I reckon), but particularly where there are strong cultural grounds which I doubt you have. I’d like to see you get it off the ground but to repeat, I think yr misdiagnosing the root cause of the problems.
Yes there are lots of self-centred morons in urban communities Ian. too many idjits get their understanding of the world from commercial channels, DVDs, urinal chats & even fewer from our rubbish newspapers.
Interesting point about newspapers, Pinxie. For the easiest way we can all reduce our carbon emissions is to stop buying newspapers. All this so-called information can now be delivered much cheaper and with minimal emissions by electronic means. But we won’t read too many editorials on that one, would we?
Funny how the print media has managed to get the IPCC spivs to deem all wood based carbon emissions to take place at the time and place that the tree is cut, not when the chip wrapper gets tossed into the bin.
Wood based carbon is the only emission category that is treated this way and, surprise, surprise, the Europeans get most of theirs from non-schedule nations while Australia, USA and Canada grow most of their own pulpwood.
So Rupert can buy millions of tonnes of perfectly stable carbon and turn it into a product that will decay in a year or two. And pay no carbon tax on it.
But when I cut a hardwood log for house framing that will last 80 years minimum, leaving a stump that will take 100 years to emit its carbon, I am accused of contributing to the problem today and will be expected to pay the carbon tax 80 years in advance with no discount.
That is why Kyoto sux.
Jen,
Maybe you can get someone to do a piece on the European carbon market – how it is set up and why the price of carbon has apparently crashed about 60% lately?
Hi Roger,
I guess you are talking about the famous Jukkasjärvi Ice Hotel in Northern Sweden…
Well, the temperature inside the hotel is at a constant -5C.
Regarding sustainability don’t know…. but the whole business around the Ice hotell is not especially nature friendly… indeed very good for locals but the Samis complain a lot…
It is impossible to keep reindeers in the area now due to all dogs that are roaming around… the sleighdogs…
What is worse is that the locals tell the Japanese that the sleighdog tradition here is very old , but that is not the fact…
Regarding, temperature increase in Sweden… well we have all noticed warmer climate and weather, the officials state that the average temperature increase is about 2 or 3 degrees.
A green goldrush is under way in the hunt for low carbon technologies to beat global warming.
Eco-warriors are replaced by eco-capitalists.
Interesting thing about that Pollack and Huang paper. It fits MBHxx perfectly.