My daughter turns 18 on 19th February 2007 and we are planning a party. February is often wet in Brisbane. We want to invite lots of people and hold the party outside in the backyard. Will it rain on us?
According to a book I’ve been reading by Ken Ring entitled ‘Predict Weather for Australia: Almanac and Isobaric Maps 2007’ published by Random House we are perhaps better to wait until late March to hold the party.
On page 121 he writes that between the 19th and 26th March, Brisbane can expect the longest dry and sunny spell of the month.
In contrast Ring writes on page 87 that the first 10 days of February will bring a passing front and moderate rainfall, then between the 15th and 20th there will be persistently overcast days and heavier amounts of rain and the last week of February will see another front bringing more rain.
The book has detailed predictions for all of 2007 with a focus on Australia’s capital cities.
Ring bases his predictions on lunar cycles in particular drawing on five of the lunar cycles known most to astronomers on the basis each creates an orbiting pattern that influences weather. He writes that these cycles feed into each other and fit like cogs in a gearbox with such celestial precision that after each lunar cycle of around 130 years, the moon returns to the same place in the sky with respect to the background of stars.
The five cycles are: 1. the cycle of the phase (new moon to new moon), 2. the cycle of declination (north to south and north again), 3. the apsidal cycle (moon speed change), 4. the perigee(closest to furthest away each month), and 5. the cycle of moonrise and moon set timing (air-tide in and out).
Ring explains that combinations of these lunar cycles produce weather peculiarities and when peaks in two or three cycles occur on or near the same day, extreme weather can result.
Perhaps not surprisingly Ring is a global warming skeptic.
To what extent should I consider Ring’s predictions in the planning of my daughter’s 18th birthday party?
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Jennifer, I looked up his predictions for Sydney September and he was waaaay off the mark eg “General: Little or no rain throughout the month except for around the 16th (Northern Declination) and another flutter around the 25th/26th…. So all in all, a nice month, no huge storms, no cyclones, good spring weather.”
Compare that with recent flooding in Sydney and look at the GIS forecast for Sat and Sunday
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/aus.vv.html
Sydney predictions from the moon;
http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=35
Hi Rog,
Did any one predict the recent wet weather in Sydney any distance out?
What would you predict for Feb/March next year?
Jen
You just can’t predict weather at that range – it’s called chaos. A long lead seasonal forecast might broadly put the period in a wetter/drier bracket but that’s even pushing it.
He is as good as his track record – has he a list of all his predictions and rights and wrongs. Does he do better than persistence or climatology?
I’ll leave for someone to ask why you can predict climate but not weather.
BTW my forecast – on Feb 19 2007 Sunrise 05:34 Sunset 18:30 and Moonrise 06:53 Moonset 19:32 with a new moon but as Davey knows – check my maths !
Jen,
You know very well that we cannot reliably predict the weather next week. We can only reliably predict the climate next century.
Jen – after 3 minutes on the site – madder than Louis in full dialectic or the NZ Climate Coalition annual picnic. Go to tea leaves or divining chicken entrails.
Luke,
Rog said Ken Ring’s predictions were not consistent with the observed… at least w.r.t weather over Sydney over the past week.
Why do you disagree with Ken Ring? Don’t you think that the moon has any influence over weather?
I understood that the atmospheric tides were as significant as the oceanic tides … that the moon can have great ‘pull’ on the weather.
What influence do you think the moon has on weather?
Climate is defined sensu strictu as weather averaged over a 30 year period.
Hence climate can also not be predicted since it is averaged weather, or averaged chaos. The only thing than can be predicted is the changing of the seasons.
Me in full dialectic? Referring to my Chambers Maxi paperback dictionary, “dialectic – a debate which seeks to resolve the conflict between two opposing theories, rather than disprove any of them; the art of discussing, esp. that branch of logic which teaches the rules and modes of reasoning.”
Actually I did predict bad weather for Sydney on the 8th, see http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=35
but I thought it would be quickly passing, and it was. The BoM also only said, on the 6th, light showers for Sydney for Thursday, so why not take them to task? After all, you as a taxpayer paid for that. And they were looking from a day away, whilst I was looking from 5 years away on my database, and put that posting up on Aug 31st.
Let’s be clear. The moon method picks timing of rain, not amounts. The moon controls timing, the sun for amounts, as for amount we are talking about evaporation rates beforehand. Ask yourself, how can something between a third and a quarter the size of earth, not affect weather. Also, the moon pulls the ocean tides. So it’s forces have to go through the air to do so. Therefore why wouldn’t it pull the air as well?
cheers
Ken
To add to Ken’s comment, Russian scientists have also noted that the position of the moon affects alpha particle emission from radio-nuclides. Published in a scientific paper in 1989.
Jen – lunar – nah – not much.
Anyway let’s not beat around the bush this time.
All we need to know is Ken Ring’s success rate – he needs to show us his statistics for being right and wrong. i.e. does he do better than a random guess, persistence (say tomorrow as today) or climatology (the average). Does his “system/technology” have any skill.
Not one-off’s of success – the whole lot. There are well accepted procedures in the climate field to assess usefulness of forecasts.
And yes the Bureau will get forecasts wrong – you’d be silly to think they wouldn’t. It’s a question whether they have useful skill (they do) and get more right than wrong.
But a 100% accurate forecast will never exist.
So over to Ken Ring to tell us how his system rates !
P.S. Thought the climate change commentary was a giggle.
The recent introduction of the term “skill” to determine whether a predictive computation is worthwhile or not. Obviously it does not mean accuracy since if it did, accuracy would have been used.
One might have great skill in mathematical manipulations or processing data using computer programs but those skills do not imply that there is accuracy in the conclusions.
(and yes I am in urbanland for another 2 weeks, so posting will be frequent, skillfully and accurately done).
No Louis – skill has a definite meaning in forecast meteorology and that is the issue here. Pls read !
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/staff/eee/verif/verif_web_page.html
and
http://ams.allenpress.com/amsonline/?request=get-document&doi=10.1175%2F1520-0434(2000)015%3C0080:VOCPF%3E2.0.CO%3B2
Deleted the last few comments. Please can we stick to the issue of forecasting, climate and/or weather and if possible also the influence of the moon.
See:
Lunar Synodical Period and Widespread Precipitation
Bradley et al.
Science 7 September 1962: 748-749
DOI: 10.1126/science.137.3532.748
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/137/3532/748.pdf
Also see: (excerpt below)
LUNAR INFLUENCE ON RAINFALL: A CASE FOR DOUBTING THOMAS?
L. Hejkrlik
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, P. O. Box 2, 400 11 Usti nad Labem, Czech
Republic, Fax: +420 47 277 4418, e-mail: hejkrlik@chmi.cz
“Regardless enormous efforts, often revealing very slight lunar effect on the background of more important meteorological processes, the results were not much significant for considered meteorological elements. A strange exception is rainfall – numerous authors from various parts of the world have reported the same picture – an apparent increase of precipitation several days after both full and new moons.”
http://www.copernicus.org/EGS/egsga/nice01/programme/abstracts/aai2211.pdf#search=%22Lunar%20effects%20weather%20precipitation%22
Jennifer,
I’ve got some references to a South African bloke who was publishing on cycles for there around 1990, but I’ll have to dig and see how he went.
I once heard the Lenox Walker type long range forecasts described (on comparison of prediction vs reality) as the same chance as you have with a 2-bob piece: 50 – 50.
More positive but shorter range – I’ve been following the IGES (wxmaps) forecasts since about 1995.
( http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html)
The bloke that put me on to this reckoned I didn’t need to look at any other site. Then it was 10-days with punts on amount and probability. It was recently upgraded to 14-days. The GFS maps
(http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/aus.vv.html )
now do a day-by-day for the first 7 days as well.
My experience here (western Qld) is that it’s remarkably good – usually gets very close to the amount and the day. The caveat is that, if days 8 – 14 look promising, you’d better wait till it continues into days 1 – 7 before dusting off the gauge, as later data can negate early prospects. And keep watching, because days 1-7 have evaporated a bit lately too.
But this will only give you 14 days at max – what about a back-up marquee?
I monitor 152 towns in Australia and 54 in NZ in the almanacs. I can’t be expected to check each day’s weather for all of them and do some statistical analysis. Even the BoM doesn’t do that. I don’t even have time to read and answer all my emails. Daily analysis of results is not valid because the nature of longrange forecasting is not intended to be specific but to comment on trends. It’s like being a wine taster and given only beer to taste and saying hmm..I won’t give THIS a very high mark. A physicist likewise has had training that would lead him to despise astrophysics if it contained astrological references. You would not be able to assess my method either unless you viewed it through different eyes. For example if you went to an Eastern university rather than a Western one your outlook would be entirely different. Longrange has to have a point of focus, so a day is named, but I ask for a 3-4 day trend around that. The further out one is looking the better. The trouble is that we are used to stats and a validation system that gives us instant answers that belong to western science, not eastern. Natural science doesn’t work like that. In nature many variables arise and impinge on each other. A doctor will say take this pill, it(your concern) may clear up today or in a couple of days time. I am the same. The weather may clear up today or in a couple of days time. You would still go to a doctor if he said that, and be very happy with him.
Yep as I suspected. Say no more. A nod is a good as wink to to a blind bat without any skill analysis. Say no more.
Ken,
Before everone became reliant on BoM forecasts, the oldies in my area had weather signs they would go by. Two referred to full and new moons.
Rain on a full moon was a sign of a very good season ahead. I.e. it only rained on full moons in exceptional years.
It would not rain on a new moon unless the moon’s tilt was such, that if it was a cup, water would run out. Obviously an unconscious reference to the relative overhead positions of both the sun and the moon north or south of the equator.
How do those local observations fit with your system? For reference, the nearest town is Penong, SA.
Well I dont know, we just had dam filling rain on a full moon, should I go buy that new car?
http://tinyurl.com/hctbm
(eat your heart out Ender)
I am not entirely convinced by predicting climate by the moon,but it CERTAINLY makes more sense than predicting the weather by Bristlecone Pines!
Mathematical and physical evidence proves that all precipitation occurs after a full moon. This establishes conclusively that the full moon is a significant factor in forecasting rainfall.
In spite of the fact that this model is incontestably valid, its usefulness in generating forecasts is limited by the fact that fully half of all weather forecasters are below average in their forecasting ability.
Or would that be forecasting skills?
In any case forecasters are either wrong or right – no stats are involved, not percentiles and so on.
Not a very skillful explanation of course 🙂
Arrhooooooooo – full moon is it?
Hi Jennifer,
Plan to hold the party indoors at great expense, Murphy’s Law states this will guarantee blazing sunshine. On no account plan to hold it outdoors with a barbie, cricket match and no marquee!
:o)
At the risk of being accused of selfpromotion, I have a book coming out soon called The Lunar Code, (Random House Publishers)which will explain how the moon does it, how you can do it using the moon and how natural cycles operate which shows how global warming is just a money-making scam.
Jennifer
As for Feb 19 in Brisbane, that should be the last of 4 days of rain which should start on the 16th. The rain, though, will be overnight which is what happens during the phase of new moon(beginning on the 18th)so the day of the 19th should be mostly dry and pleasant. The ground may therefore be wet, about 9 hrs of sunshine expected, 27degC max temp, 19degC min temp, a mild onshore easterly wind, maximum gusts around lunchtime.
cheers
Ken
It strikes me that if Ken is able to predict weather more accurately that the BOM, then that suggests his assumptions are more correct than the BOM’s as to what causes weather.
The role the moon plays is intriguing and one suspects the whole solar system is part of it too – the electric universe theorests suggest the connection is electrical rather than gravitational but these are heresies of course.
Nasa has started to measure the electrical fields of hurricanes and discovered voltages of up to 10,000 volts in some, though as the measurements are not yet being done systematically, it is early days for this line of inquiry.
It may well be that the driving force for winds and weather may be electrical in nature rather than thermal as thought today.
Ken Ring – “money making scam” and you have a book coming out – come on – well if your web site content on global warming is anything to go by one would have to be suspicious of any of your “science” – so may errors in such a small amount of text. And so you’re prepared to give Jen a forecast for her daughter’s birthday but no idea of your track record? All the eastern mysticism stuff is just smoke and mirrors – the method either has skill or it doesn’t. Jen where do you find these guys.
hmmmm – I wonder what happened to “evidence based” ? If you view the Murray River through eastern philosophy instead of the western method you would intuitively understand that the river is empty.
Is the river half empty, or half full? Evidence suggests that the river is simply the wrong size for the water involved.
Not sure how eastern philosophy changes the “intuitive” view of the river, they believe that everything is continuously changing and nothing is lost.
Matter turns into energy, energy turns into matter.
Once again, Luke defames someone without providing any specifics. SOP.
ROTFL – from Ian – hahahahahahahahaha – ah that was a good one. Ian not having anything to add just takes a swipe. Good tactic.
Ian I suspect if I told you there were fairies at the bottom the garden you might like some “evidence”.
I fail to see that if I have written a book it is by definition a money-making scam. Luke is obviously a global warmer so anything he says about it will probably be emotive rather than objective. I would like to be shown the “global catastrophe” – nothing untoward out my window and I live on the same globe as everybody else. If my window was up in central QSLD I might wonder when the drought is going to break, but much of Australia is always in drought because so many areas are so far from the sea and therefore rain production. All the major deserts of the world share similar latitudes. Similarly I would like to be shown just ocean that is rising more than it would have been doing post-glaciation.
Ken Ring
Much of Australia is not always in drought. Much of Australia has an arid or semi-arid environment. That is not drought ! Drought is an exceptional end of a distribution. The concept of much of Australia being in drought is a major reason we have such problems with drought policy.
Ken – read your diatribe on global warming. The inaccuracy/spin meter has broken. And I’m afraid you don’t even know which end of the cow emits the methane – or why?
I did not say that your book was a money making “scam” – but is ironic that you label global warming research as a money making scam when you are attempting to profit by writing a “critical” book on the topic. Hardly a superior moral position. It had better be more convincingly argued than your web site.
And of course I’m a global warmer – any logical person would be.
You say you are logical person Luke and I believe you, it would be bad manners to say otherwise.
Luke,
You are having a field day on definitions at Ken Ring’s expense.
I understood what he meant. Much of Australia is arid and semi arid because so many areas are so far from the sea and therefore rain production.
The locals call the drier years droughts. It is a bureacratic convenience to only label the exceptionally dry years i.e. one-in-twenty as drought. Thus exempting government from assisting these areas. But for those of us who live in these areas, it is not the low rainfall that gets you. It is what happens to coincide. Like crashed market prices, financial recession soaring interest rates, or locusts devouring the only remaining green feed – crops. In the drier years we are all more vulnerable to that extra whammy.
And from what I can gather, the majority of contributors to this blog are global warming sceptics. I am. My skepticism was triggered by the spectacle of a government type justifying transfer of private property to the crown (without compensation) because the sea level was going to rise with global warming. The coastline he was rabbiting on about had 30m high cliffs. any logical person would turn skeptical after that!
Back to Ken. I asked a question earlier in this blog, which you have not answered, perhaps because it triggered some mirth. So I will, seriously, re-word the question.
Using the Lunar system, is it more likely to rain on the full or new moon? Does the perceived tilt of the new moon change between summer and winter? And also change with the overhead position of the moon in relation to the equator?
In other words, were the observations of the oldies in my area in line with your system? That is, more likely to rain on a new moon, but not if the moon’s tilt is wrong?
Helen – I disagree – Ken Ring’s phrase was “I might wonder when the drought is going to break, but much of Australia is always in drought because so many areas are so far from the sea and therefore rain production” – therefore should we expect the aridity or semi-aridity to “break”? Being in drought is often used to get get state and Commonwealth support. So if you live in an arid environment and are therefore “droughty” most of the time would you would expect to get assistance most the time.
Luke,
not another overpaid public servant are you?
No Louis that’s impossible because public servants don’t have the excessive salaries that the private sector do, especially the minerals sector? And while we’re here – Certainly not another eccentric elderly geologist are you? There seems to be an awful lot of them out there with bizarre climatological knowledge and a strange allegiance to old masters.
Luke,
Alleged ‘droughty’ assistance is not the subject of this blog, but as you seem to be poorly informed, I will answer with what I know.
Droughts are part of the Australian scene. We are expected to cope with them. So no assistance normally available. Only in exceptional circumstances. That usually means two or more harsh, loss making seasons with a few whammy’s thrown in.
It is pretty hard for a region to qualify for exceptional circumstances. The State has to kick in a fair bit of money before the Commonwealth comes to the party. So the States set the bar pretty high.
For the first tough year – fuggeddaboutit. Only on the second tough year is exceptional circumstances likely to be mentioned. But not likely to be approved. More likely to kick in with the third tough year in a row, but not always.
So what do farming families get? The big one, Luke, is income support equivalent to unemployment benefits. As by this time most farm families are borrowing money for living expenses, getting grocery money that does not have to be paid back – with interest – is a big help. There is one school of thought that thinks that it is better to support families on farm so they can keep the system maintained ready for recovery, rather than force them to leave to seek work, and let the farm deteriorate.
The other one is interest subsidy. The cheapest mortgages are for home loans. All other loans including farm loans start at about 3-4% interest higher than home loans. Overdraft is higher again. I do not know the rate of subsidy, but if it puts the debt on a drought stricken farm on a par with a home loan, that would be a welcome help too.
And that, Luke,is basically what drought assistance in Australia is. In some areas there may be freight subsidies to move stock out to protect soil, or to move fodder in. In my area droughts rarely last longer than two years, so the drought relief system does not concern me. Nor do I expect it to.
Now could you please stick to talking about the weather?
Hi Helen
(Using the Lunar system, is it more likely to rain on the full or new moon?)
Actually from Full moon to last Q is statistically the most rainy of the month. Two days after full moon is often rainy, especially southern areas in winter. New moon brings more rain in summer to southern regions nearer the pole, more rain in winter to northern regions nearer the equator.
(Does the perceived tilt of the new moon change between summer and winter?)
Do you mean the tilt of the moon or the perceived tilt which is where the illumination is? The moon’s apparent tilt varies by the hour as the illuminated bit during quarter moons tracks the sun.
(And also change with the overhead position of the moon in relation to the equator?)
The moon crosses the equator twice a month, going north and returning south. At the moment it is rising between E and NE and setting between W and NW.
(In other words, were the observations of the oldies in my area in line with your system? That is, more likely to rain on a new moon, but not if the moon’s tilt is wrong?)
Not knowing all of what they said for your area, generally it is correct that new moon brings rain, mostly at night. Sometimes a piece of folklore that worked in one country migrated with the people to a new country, but in the new location was found not to apply, especially when hemispheres were changed. So you get the situation where the moon’s “cup” with “horns” sticking up, in February was said to be holding water or snow in Europe, which was correct because it was winter, but withholding water in the S hemisphere which is the usual February dry situation.
Luke
I think the point is that global warming never did bring drought to Australia nor any other arid place, drought was here before any cars arrived. So to claim that continuing drought is due to burning fossil fuels is an insult to intelligence.
Helen – yes I know and agree.
Ken Lord – did I say the current drought was due to climate change ??
“The Moon” is not the only moon of Earth. There is also Cruithne, which is “locked into a 1::1 resonance with Earth.” See, “Cruithne, earths second moon,” at http://www.burtleburtle.net/bob/physics/cruithne.html
It has been suggested that disturbances in the Earth’s rather substantial magnetosphere can result in differentials of precipitation. If this is a verifiable phenomenon which can be tied to the Big Moon, the data might be confounded by the remarkable “corkscrew” orbit of Cruithne.
A further complication in the analysis of the influence of orbital mechanics on precipitation is Cruithne’s departure from its weird orbit. See
“Earth loses other moon!” at
http://www.sploid.com/news/2006/06/earth_loses_oth.php
So whatever might have been gained from an analysis of the infuences of both moons no longer applies and everything will have to be recalibrated and recalculated.
Cruithne has likely been the factor which has rendered astrology an unlikely profession, simply because astrology has not kept up with astronomy. Your lucky number might actually be 7, rather than 4.
Thank you Ken.
Given that we only expect to see those very good seasons about 1 year in 5, there could be some correllation between their full moon observations and your system. But correllation is not causation. Perhaps on a good year it just keeps raining. Interesting, though.
Shiller, you are in orbit this time.
I have to go now, as I have other things to do for a few days. Cheers.
But even random skill-free forecasts can be useful. Take the wedding day problem – their first big decision and the sun has to shine for the photos. Smart move to let a long range forcaster do it. His angle is easy too – no repeat business likely, and it only rains a bit about one day in three in most places. This example is a bit like astrology where any forecast can help the decision process along and when the choice does not matter much anyway.
As for February in Brisbane, the peak of the wet season, hot and humid – hard on makeup – go for an aircon venue or head for the hills. Gatecrashers might be a bigger problem now the word is out.
Luke,
I am an old very active field geologist in full employment at a salary commensurate with my experience.
As for climate, geologists are intimately involved with it on all scales.
Our laboratory is the earth – yours your computer screen at the BOM.
Luke,
One extra point – excessive salaries? Not possible in a market economy where demand meets supply.
Excessive salaries only occur when employers are forced to pay above market level salaries.
This raises the corrollary of excessive losses by the way, which you could opine on, if Jen is willing.
Louis I think we’re now wise up to geriatric geologists opining on issues way out of their depth. Of course it also raises all manner of issues about the environmental performance of your industry. And perhaps your fervent need to defend the economic basis of an increasingly environmentally unsound fossil fuel industry. Oh that’s right – I forgot it’s not biogenic is it.
Luke, thanks to the interest of Jennifer I have offered some new ideas on this blog. What have you contributed except the repeated bad-mouthing of something you haven’t studied much if at all?
Have you ever heard of “live and let live”?
Perhaps not.
Ken Ring – you have failed to provide any proof of your supposed “system”. I suggest therefore you have nothing that stands up to any serious analysis. You’ve repeatedly ducked on the issue. Or prove me wrong put up some serious long-term stats as to the efficacy of your predictions !
I don’t think we let shonky science live and let live here on this “evidence based blog”. Jen’s words. This is not the New Idea astrology section.
Come on Luke, Ken provides us with all manner of laughs – dont make him stop now…
eg.,
–Ken redefines the speed of light
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2006/06/ringworld.php
–Ken’s CO2 pools on the ground
http://www.climatescience.org.nz/assets/20065131041540.CSC-KenRing.pdf
–Ken says Astrology works a treat
http://www.climatescience.org.nz/Discuss.asp?item=72&feedbackPage=2
Can you provide proof that the BoM longrange forecasts up to two weeks ahead are effective? Proof is a difficult thing when it comes to weather, as it is not an exact science. As weather is generated between 200ft and 19 miles up, there is a potential overshoot factor of 50-60 miles for a predicted rain event. Proof that an aspirin will cure a headache is also problematic as sometimes it will and sometimes not. That doesn’t stop people using the method if they find it works for them. Others may find it doesn’t. But claiming to speak for other people is not tolerable.
“doesn’t stop using the method if it works for them”
Yep that sums it up – so you remember what works and forget when it doesn’t.
Of course weather forecasting or long range forecasting is not an exact science. You’d be a fool to expect 100%. But we do need to know if you have anything better than witchcraft or a sophisticated coin flipper.
If you don’t provide any stats I would tell people (if asked an opinion so don’t worry too much) that it’s probably bogus as the most minimal evidence of any efficacy have not been provided.
Don’t worry about slagging off BoM – they have their forecasts there very day in public view. They do do all manner of skill testing and mathematical analyses – and their numbers are what they are. And they’re probably flat out just coping with the investigative onslaught of Warwick to move. He’s up them for the rent.
Two weeks ahead is really pushing it – obviously it won’t be as good as the next day or two. But if it gives some edge (which is quantifable) they should give it to us with that risk information.
But we know nothing about your forecast track record and that is the subject of this post !
If you don’t want to provide any evidence at all this simply goes into the Astrology class – fun to discuss at the pub and dinner parties.
Luke, please stop narrowing things to your requirements. There is nothing to stop you assessing me. Go to my website and look up your area each day for about a month or longer It’s all free for the next three days. It comes automatically from my database on the ISP server established for this very purpose five years ago. If you’re the one that’s hung up on assessment then surely you should do the legwork.
http://www.predictweather.com/free_forecast/index.asp
But you conveniently forget that if you are comparing me to the regular mets, then any assessment of me has to be compared to what the BoM said 5 years ago about today, too.
Ken – No you don’t put that back on a potential client. I put it to you that your system is without foundation as you have dodged all requests to provide any efficacy data for your product. You need a few years worth of forecasts to evaluate, which surely you would have in your database – without such evaluation any system is simply unscientific and unknown. Why wouldn’t we go with Hayden Walker (derived from Lennox Walker and Inigo Jones)? Don’t worry about BoM – worry about your own system, if not for your users, for your own sake. Anyway we’re aren’t getting too far – I would have been interested in your success rate – so good luck with it all.
87-91%
cheers
Ken
Of what – egg hatch?
For what lead time(s) with what meteorological variables for what seasons?
I doubt that any answer would satisfy someone only looking to disparage. A figure was called for and one given, from a survey done by an independent body. This process could go on ad nauseam. With this sort of thing the proof is in the eating. I am not claiming it is meteorology in the modern sense, so calling for meteorological variables is failing to recognise longrange lunar forecasting as its own science. That is a difficulty that a skeptic has, and why trying to appease a skeptic is a waste of time.
it really doesnt matter just tell her you love her Plan to have things inside and easily moved if you have to take cover! make rain coats out of waste bags and prepare for some fun in the rain! as long as there is no threat of lightning! if it rains so what It can only make it that much more fun and a memorable 18th birthday I say quit worrying so much mom! and go for it!!!!