Online journal, Online Opinion, is calling for article for its January feature which is titled Looking forward – the next five years.
I’ve been asked to write 900 words on the subject. It is impossible to take an evidence-based-approach to the future? So whatever I write will have to be pure conjecture?
I am currently pondering what it might be like in 2010… and I am interested in your thoughts on the following subjects:
Will it be hotter and if so, by how much?
What will be the price of oil?
Will more people be driving hybrid cars?
Will there be a nuclear power station under construction in Australia?
Will cotton and carnations still be the only commercially produced genetically modified (GM) crops in Australia?
Will more people be eating kangaroo and crocodile or will we still be focused on beef, pork and chicken.
Will Western Australia have solved its salt problem?
Will Brisbane be drinking sewerage (recycled water)?
Will there be more koalas in Australia in 2010 than in 2005?
It would be great if you could post a comment or two below on what it will be like in 2010 – and that way I can write the piece as a contribution from the readers of this blog rather than having to put my own name to a whole lot of predictions!
Between now and then (January 2006) I am going to be spending some time surfing.
I am unsure whether I will have access to the internet next week and so have asked Roger Kalla to keep readers of this weblog amused. He has agreed. So the prediction for next week is that Roger will post more than me.
I have never met Roger. But I know he has a range of interests from bird flu to biodiesel. He once worked for the Victorian government and grew up in Sweden.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
2010 will still see pockets of war as recalcitrants fight for whatever. I see Europe taking a battering as unsustainable socio/economic systems reform or collapse. The $US is still the currency of choice. I see me on a yacht in the Whitsundays.
And I see the asian tiger in full magnificent splendour;
“Airbus planes may be manufactured in China
5-Dec-2005
Airbus has signed a memorandum of understanding with National Development and Reform Commission of China.
The agreement outlines the possibility that the airline manufacturer may build an assembly plant in China.
The company already has five Chinese companies producing parts for the Airbus aircraft and a research and development centre in Beijing.
China has outlined that penetration of its market is dependent on investment that would help develop its aerospace industry.”
Jen
1. 1 degree hotter or maybe 1.2
2. $85 or $90 a barrel – I think the real spike wil came after
3. As Toyota are selling every hybrid that the can make and have doubled production – yes more hybrids will be on the road. I also predict that the plug- in Prius will be on sale as will the Lithium battery Mitsubishi.
4. Not on my watch – even if I have to lie in front of the bulldozers
5. Don’t know
6. Don’t know
7. Yes – proabably with oil mallees
8. yes
Jen,
such is the stuff of economics – trying to predict the unpredictable – I would flatly refuse such a request.
Will it be hotter and if so, by how much?
Much colder – George W Bush signs Kyoto Protocol
– hell freezes over
– resulting in abrupt ice age
What will be the price of oil?
About the same as now, adjusted for inflation.
Will more people be driving hybrid cars?
A few of the more gullible wealthy.
Will there be a nuclear power station under construction in Australia?
Probably not, coal is cheaper, too much opposition to overcome in five years.
Will cotton and carnations still be the only commercially produced genetically modified (GM) crops in Australia?
Yes.
Will more people be eating kangaroo and crocodile or will we still be focused on beef, pork and chicken.
Beef, pork, chicken, don’t forget lamb.
Will Western Australia have solved its salt problem?
The solution will be under way.
Will Brisbane be drinking sewerage (recycled water)?
No. All immigrant banana benders will be forcibly evicted, leaving plenty of water for the chosen ones.
Will there be more koalas in Australia in 2010 than in 2005?
Yes.
Temperature about 0.2 degree warmer than now
Price of oil about $4.50/l
1 car in 25 will ne a hybrid
No plant under construction but much more serious discussion with GE or other big company putting proposals to government
GE oilseed crops for biodiesel
Little change in meat consumption patterns.
WA salt problems about the same, Areas planted to trees will double.
Brisbane effluent water pipeline to Lockyer valley started
Less koalas in 70% of habitat (disease problems) remain
Temp – global average up another 0.15 C
Oil – petrol $3.00 a litre
10% hybrids on the road
No nuclear plant but we’re talking more seriously about it
Few more GM crops – but not in food chain
Meat preferences unchanged
WA salt issue being attacked by engineering solutions, only modest progress
Gold Coast builds de-sal plant and SEQ region interlinks it dams with pipelines (only Toowoomba has effluent).
Less koalas except on Kangaroo Island – disease, dogs and habitat issues
Jen, Louis, Malcolm and the anti-guys still arguing that despite everything melting saying that it was all still natural.
Phil gets a life and stops blogging.
Ender becomes a rich solar installer and uses his millions to buy back WA habitat.
Rog moves from hicksville to Qld, next door to Phil and becomes finally happy.
Louis publishes landmark paper on plasma physics and CO2 saturation in Nature.
Ian Mott appointed Minister for Natural Resources and the Environment.
Phil,
I can’t see the connect between plasma physics and CO2 saturation, and so would the editor, not being stupid either, so I doubt it would get past peer review.
It might get past pear review in a Greenie magazine though, having had some first hand experience with the publications of the Canberra Environment Centre and what they tended to publish.
Exactly my point and it would be a Beurre bosc I’d think.
Given that I’m slow on the uptake, can someone explain why transport fuels will reach several dollars per litre? If the cost of oil goes up much more, there are several alternative non-fossil fuels that will become competitive. We also have oceans of natural gas, that while still a fossil fuel, can be used for transport fuel, and would reduce our CO2 emissions compared to oil. Seems to me that the only reason transport fuels might treble or quadruple in price at the pump would be if the government chooses to tax fuel out of reach of the voting public. Unlikely?
Boxer – What non-fossil fuels? None of them have oil’s energy return. We do not have oceans of natural gas – that is due to peak a bit after oil.
Boxer – I guess that’s it our “biased personal assessment” of the state of the world’s oil supplies and readiness/availability/distribution system for alternatives to take a major share of the load. That’s “major”. Plus surging new demand from Asia. Of course we may be deluded.
Maybe I’m mistaken about the natural gas (I have never made a mistake before), but I thought we had centuries of the stuff in the NW Shelf at current rates of extraction.
Non-fossil fuels, well there’s Hoogwijk, Faaaij, Eickhout, de Vries and Turkenburg (2005) Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenearios. Biomass and Bioenergy 29 (2005) 225-257.
They examined the use of abandoned agricultural land, low-productivity land and agricultural land that is surplus to that required for food. They only considered the use of energy crops using woody plants, so no use of edible oils for biodiesel, sugar for ethanol or similar. I’m still digesting this one, but in slightly convoluted English, from the abstract are these statements:
“The geographical potential is defined as the product of the available area for energy crops and the corresponding productivity level for energy crops. The geographical potential of abandoned agricultural land is the largest contributor. …. The geographical potential can be converted to transportation fuels or electricity resulting in ranges of the technical potential for fuels in the year 2050 and 2100 equal to several times the present oil consumption.”
I guess the basic point is there are many solutions to the problem and we need to swing our focus onto developing those solutions. To raise concerns about the future is an essential first step, but collectively we seem to be a bit stuck on the problems and not moving beyond raising the level of anxiety.
A colleague sent me this for debate and discussion:
The comments are based on the standard Gov/Industry literature, the devil is in the detail.
NWS gas has been extensively analysed by Brian Fleay and is available in several publications. At current rates of extraction probably through till 2050 (at a trickle) but expected extraction rates, based on proposed developments, probably through until 2020. Will begin to decline around 2015 hence it is a ten year project with most of the resource being shipped off overseas for a quick buck. BTW, even though Woodside is seen as a major player, they are not, it is the big multinationals, and under FTA, we have little say on where they ship and what price they set. Woodside is only a joint venture partner, and even the company is significantly controlled by US banks.
It is not easy to extract, at the moment we are just skimming the shallow water cream… and it is dry gas, hence cannot strip off much propane/butane for liquid fuels. Also the fields are fractured, hence increased drilling costs and short-life plays. And, the transport cost make it as cheap to sell in Asia as it is to the east coast of Australia.
Biomass – you can either eat or make fuel. If you choose to eat, then you can only make from remaining bio-stock, principally woody plants with a low energy return. So what happens when en masse we start to cut down the mallee scrub, like we did 100 years ago.
In Australia, ethanol is a non starter, and as I have calculated, all of Australia’s cropping land would only contribute 25% of our current demand.
We will need to rely on bio-fuels, probably from non-edible oil trees, Pongamia from India… is about the only thing that will grow in Australia with a positive net energy ratio.
You can make energy out of anything (almost) but the devil is in the detail. For thousands of years people have burnt cow pats and elephant dung, and in China they have quite sophisticated community bio-reactors.. . but they don’t produce enough energy to live in the 21st century. e.g. it take the sewerage of 40 people per day to run a 100w light bulb for 6 hours.
Australia’s future lays with a combination of all energy resources, with the primary source being the sun. Technology will be applied to reduce demand, not produce fuels to match our demand.
And
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2005/12/06/worse-than-fossil-fuel/
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2005/11/29/how-much-energy-do-we-have-/
Biomass is indeed a broad church Phil, and as a non-termite, there many forms of biomass I cannot digest. I am not all that impressed by the use of edible products like canola oil for biodiesel and sugar for ethanol, but I think the market will sort that out. There are many biomass products that are much cheaper than edible oils, grains and soluble carbohydrates. E.g. cereal stubble and woody biomass of many types. The technolgy for converting these to transport fuels exists and is, according to some workers, already economic. But as you say the devil is in the detail and if people can compete on the fuel market, they will soon do so.
I don’t understand your point about only Pongamia (which is?) would grow in Aus with a positive energy ratio. Any plant utilising photosynthesis has a postive energy ratio doesn’t it? The challenges are the technological links that join the plant and its biomass to the fuel bowser. There’s a two day bioenergy conference in Melbourne tomorrow and Tuesday. The proceedings may be of interest.
The Hoojwijk et paper I mentioned above presents substantiated arguements that we can produce fuels to meet demand with biomass, and without clearing native forests and woodlands.
Economics also says we should be efficient in the use of energy.
And the primary source is definitely the sun. Use photosynthesis to capture and store the energy and gain the other benefits of growing plants on the land (like sequester carbon from the atmosphere) instead of building high-tech arrays of solar collectors. What’s wrong with growing plantation mallees for energy? Solar arrays that birds can nest in! We don’t have to clear any more scrub, and in any case, a “natural” mallee ecosystem has very low productivity and the high costs of harvesting wild stands means they will never be an economic resource. They’re quite safe from exploitation for bioenergy.
You must try to relax more. Breath out and let your shoulders down. Indulge in hope. (says me!??)
http://www.goodnewsindia.com/Pages/content/discovery/honge.html
http://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/duke_energy/Pongamia_pinnata.html
Well, as the man said: the future is not what it used to be. But here are my predictions.
2010 might even be a cool year, especially for generation Z. But seriously, by then the average world temperature will have increased by several fractions of a percent. There’s no way we can avoid this.
The price of oil? Probably around the $100/barrel mark. We will be paying over $2 per litre for petrol at the retail level. As a result hybrid cars will be popular but the cost of servicing and repairing them will have gone through the roof. Our increasing underclass will not be able to afford to run a car of any type by 2010.
Nuclear power is a no-no in Oz, and this sensible policy will continue in 2010. But construction of a high-level nuclear waste dump will be well advanced, and contracts to accept international waste will have been signed.
GM products will have increased in variety, including many foods, vegetable and animal. Clothing made from GM hemp will be a fashion item.
We will be eating much less beef than today, moderately less pork, more chicken, and more kangaroo. Crocodile, emu and buffalo will be on the menu but not widely preferred.
Western Australian salinity will be worse than today. Political wrangling will not have solved the problem.
Parts of Brisbane will be drinking recycled water from a newly commissioned plant.
There will definitely be more koalas, especially in South Australia, where by 2010 they will be informally regarded as a pest. If other states would like some, please apply to SA Dept of Environment.
A horse will win the Melbourne Cup in 2010.
I’m filing these comments (NOT from me) here:
What do I think will be the issues in five years time? Well without two hours to ramble on let me say that I think a) we will realise that wind power is a joke (uneconomic, ugly, requiring fossil backup in case the wind drops etc), b) gas prices are likely to be very high worldwide, c) consumers will be using energy more carefully, d) nuclear for base load generation will be growing, e) the blast furnace using coke from coal as the ore reductant will still be the way that industry makes iron, f) oil prices wil be high but there will be adequate reserves, g) coal for power generation will continue to grow with cleaner coal burning processes used on some new stations, h) the hard yards on finding proper solutions to environmental problems will still be being put in by the major (often unpopular) corporations though the academics and politicians will still be claiming the credits (often dishonestly).