Open Thread

Sophie C. Lewis and David J. Karoly have just had a paper published by the American Meteorological Society.

crabs are real, homogenised data is not

crabs are real, homogenised data is not

Its starts on page 31 of a special edition, ‘Explaining Extreme Events of 2013: From a Climate Perspective’ that is a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 95, Number 9, September 2014.

In this peer-reviewed paper I see that the homogenised ACORN-SAT data is labelled “Observations”.

Stupid is as stupid does.

97 Responses to Open Thread

  1. Ian George September 30, 2014 at 9:31 pm #

    Jen
    They are now proclaiming Sydney had its hottest two consecutive days for September, 29th and 30th. 1965 had the record until ACORN adjusted the 1965 days by an amazing 0.7C – downward of course.
    Here is a claim that can only be substantiated by adjustments.
    I have posted more info on your previous blog.
    How many more of the claims from the paper you have highlighted are a result of homogenization and scrubbing historical data?

  2. jennifer September 30, 2014 at 9:48 pm #

    Ian George,

    Thanks for the information on the ACORN adjustments to Sydney, Richmond, and more.

    Indeed the new Lewis and Karoly paper is in essence a work of fiction. So, perhaps are the other papers that make up this new supplementary to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

    What a sorry state of affairs!

  3. Ian George October 1, 2014 at 5:37 am #

    Further to my blog above, I compared the raw and ACORN figures for Sydney Obs for Sep, 1965.
    The BoM has been very clever.
    All daily data has been adjusted bar three days. Most of the days have been adjusted up relative to the raw temps but the four hottest days have been adjusted down – three by 0.7C and another by 0.5C.
    When you compare the positive and negative adjustments, the numbers come out pretty close.
    So the BoM can say, as far as the monthly mean goes, its adjustments haven’t altered the overall record.
    What formula/procedure would produce such an inconsistent ‘hotpotch’ of data adjustments? And this from such an important weather station with meticulous monitoring.
    Will we see any adjustments to Sydney Obs’ recent data in the light of the fact that some of western Sydney’s temps broke only short-term records for these two days?

    Ian, it is simple. Because the 1960’s are so far in the past, the temperature data cannot be trusted. When an outlier extreme record is found, it is compared to the average for that day & adjusted accordingly. Never forget that the only ones who know what the temperature was in the past are the current gatekeepers. Ray the Mod

  4. Another Ian October 1, 2014 at 6:05 am #

    Jen,

    FYI

    Our taxes at work

    http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/9/30/quote-of-the-day-murderous-edition.html

  5. spangled drongo October 1, 2014 at 6:59 am #

    Let’s hope Maurice Newman can get some action on a BoM audit:

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/time_to_audit_the_hot_records_of_the_warmist_bureau/

  6. Neville October 1, 2014 at 9:06 am #

    Another top post from Bob Tisdale concerning the US west coast drought.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/30/the-obvious-failures-of-climate-science-that-mainstream-media-ignores/

    California has wasted countless billions $ trying to reduce co2 emissions and ignored proper research and preparation into future water reliability.
    Of course earlier studies have shown droughts were much worse over the last 1000 years.

  7. jennifer October 1, 2014 at 9:33 am #

    Much thanks to

    Another Ian,
    Spangled,
    Egg, and
    Neville

    …important information/news at everyone of those links.

    And to WB for the link posted in an earlier thread to the Lewis and Karoly paper.

  8. Neville October 1, 2014 at 10:07 am #

    The ACT Labor govt??? helps fund a theatre project that dreams of killing climate deniers. And yet people vote for these idiots to govern on their behalf?? Incredible.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/act_government_donates_to_kill_climate_deniers_project/

  9. Neville October 1, 2014 at 12:28 pm #

    A new study finds little impact from co2 over the last 40 years. Most change seems to be NATURAL and due to changes in cloud cover etc,

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/new-paper-finds-global-dimming.html

  10. handjive of climatefraud.inc October 1, 2014 at 6:02 pm #

    Translation makes for entertaining reading, but some links from here might be of interest.
    https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kaltesonne.de%2F%3Fp%3D20791&edit-text=

    Like this one:

    February 20, 2014

    Notable drought cyclicality in East Asia: Natural climate variability in the thousand-year scale

    A severe drought wave has struck the eastern Indonesian island of Java.

    How did this disaster?
    Could have been the man perhaps, who with his unbridled energy consumption catapulted the CO 2 content of the atmosphere to dizzying heights, thereby triggering a drought?

    So far so good. If it were not for one little detail that does not fit properly:
    The mentioned drought namely wave occurred already in 1790, ie in the middle of the Little Ice Age, long before the industrial phase and the burning of fossil fuels on a large scale began.
    The drought was not a fluke.
    The dry phase in East Java last long 70 years and ended only in 1860, in time for the time when the atmospheric carbon dioxide increase.

    For some quick entertainment, Rocky & Bullwinkle explain how to homogenise, BoM style:

    Mr Know it all- How to Cook a Turkey’s Goose.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdCWgWlbyLU

  11. Robert October 1, 2014 at 6:54 pm #

    Thanks, Handjive.

    There are valuable records of what went on climatically in the early 1790s. Even for Port Jackson and Parra we have some detailed accounts of the heat and drought, but what happened in India was a huge tragedy, and we know a lot about it: the Doji Bara famine. It makes sense that Java was affected badly as well.

    You would think that a 4 year monsoon failure on the scale of Doji Bara would be at the very centre of climate studies. The 1876-9 drought conditions saw even worse and more widespread famine, taking in India, China, Brazil, Northern Africa and other places.

    Vital stuff to know about. Sadly, the klimatariat don’t like the dates…so change the subject.

  12. hunter October 1, 2014 at 7:48 pm #

    The climate obsessed profiteers are not going to start dealing with reality since they actually never have. All they have ever done is rely on homogenized and contrived data, and model outputs.
    The climate obsessed are still claiming that coral atolls are drowning due to CO2.
    That is false.
    The climate obsessed are still claiming that slr is changing.
    That is false.
    The climate obsessed are still claiming that storms are getting worse.
    That is false.
    The climate obsessed are still claiming that Earth is warming up.
    That is false for 18 years.
    Climate obsessed media refuses to deal with discrepancies between climate predictions and reality. Instead they simply echo cliamte hype more loudly.
    The “special edition” report this thread comments on is an example of that.

  13. Jennifer Marohay October 1, 2014 at 10:03 pm #

    More popular opinion… I’m just filing this here…

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/oct/01/tony-abbott-adviser-bureau-meteorology-warming-inquiry?CMP=soc_567

  14. Robert October 1, 2014 at 11:02 pm #

    The BoM said we’d get SSW winds today, and even gave us a little icon thingy showing wind. Of course, that forecast appeared just yesterday. They forecast for the week but change as they go. (Also, the icons seldom match the information below them till the day before.) But it actually happened today. We got those winds.

    I figure it’s handy to have someone tell me that a day in advance. But 300 million dollars handy? With that sort of money you could keep the whole Guardian readership in organic hemp sandals for a decade.

  15. spangled drongo October 2, 2014 at 7:09 am #

    Bon Mots from Bill Johnstone at Jo’s this morning:

    •Is it really possible that temperature records are broken, seemingly every second day; when daily data have such obvious historical failings; and when modern data are not observed using thermometers and are possibly homogenised on-the-fly?
    •Do we really need to irrigate the Southern Ocean with precious Murray-Darling Basin water; build expensively subsidised windmills and other green-trinkets; and even if you think so, will it really change our climate?

    http://joannenova.com.au/2014/10/the-rutherglen-stoush-on-homogenisation-bill-johnstone-bravely-ventured-onto-the-conversation/#respond

  16. Daryl McDonald October 2, 2014 at 7:54 am #

    If the measurement instrumentation and techniques of forebears was not up to the job, how did they build such engineering marvels such as the Sydney Harbour Bridge, and the Snowy Mountains scheme?
    Compare the precision in design and construction to the shambles we have seen with Melbourne’s Great Big Wheel, the Nth/Sth pipeline, the desal plant etc.
    Can you imagine how tedious it was to design and build projects WITHOUT calculators, computers, consultants, worlds best practice etc, using the old imperial measurements system. These folk were meticulous.
    If you need reliable, accurate, real world results, give the job to an Engineer with grey hair!

    Cheers, SLOWLURNR.

  17. Neville October 2, 2014 at 8:41 am #

    Dbstealey from WUWT has a column graph of the entire GISS temp record 1880 to 2013 or 134 years. Certainly doesn’t look very scary at all and after all their constant ongoing adjustments. Here’s his comment about the 18 years of no warming from RSS. In fahrenheit not celsius.

    dbstealey

    October 1, 2014 at 11:04 am

    If we use a normal temperature scale, we get a chart that isn’t very scary:

    http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/image_thumb265.png?w=636&h=294

  18. WB October 2, 2014 at 10:11 am #

    Hiya Jen, here’s another link for you – it’s a peer reviewed paper by Karoly and Gergis all about South East Australian temps they’ve gathered from actual historical records. It does NOT seem to be a work of fiction.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gdj3.19/abstract

    Apparently they won a Eureka Prize for this, as an interdisciplinary work because, as climate scientists, they went to work with historians. About time, what took you so long, most of us sceptics would say.

    I reckon this is interesting because they’ve identified a lot of climate variability in the past – and remember it was Karoly and Gergis who produced that rubbish Oz Hockey Stick paper that ended up getting retracted, so for them to actually be performing quality work and work that challenges their own previous sloppy efforts, makes a nice change.

  19. Graeme M October 2, 2014 at 10:31 am #

    One interesting aspect of that paper is the use of other documentary evidence to confirm general trends of the data, and the final conclusion that the instrumental record was generally sound (with the usual caveat that it is not of the quality of modern records and should be treated with caution).

    That suggests that what instrumental records there are for the 1800s to early 1900s do offer some level of confidence around the conditions experienced and the trends that can be ascertained, doesn’t it?

  20. egg October 2, 2014 at 11:36 am #

    Plateau Continues

    “I predicted this in 1999,” Dr. Don Easterbrook, a climate scientist and glacier expert from Washington State, said of the 18-year period with no global warming. “My prediction has now happened.”

    “The same year the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) models were predicting that the Earth would warm by one degree per decade, I was predicting that the Earth would cool for the next three decades,” he noted. “They were way off the mark, while my prediction is still on target.”

    ‘Easterbrook added that with the sun entering a period known as a Grand Minimum, “it’s a sure thing it’s going to get cooler. It’s just difficult to tell how much. It looks like it may get one degree cooler and maybe more,” he said. “That may not seem like a lot, but it only warmed up one degree during the entire last century.”

    CNS News

  21. Neville October 2, 2014 at 1:21 pm #

    The Pages 2K study has been revised and now shows little difference between Med WP temps and today.

    http://climateaudit.org/2014/10/01/revisions-to-pages2k-arctic/#comments Full credit to Steve McIntyre for their hard work pointing out the faults in the original study and some credit to the authors for their revision.

    But Jean S and Steve think it can be improved because they are still using some suspect data. This was one of Luke’s GOTCHA links that I still managed to criticize at the time. Concentrating on SH and particularly Antarctica I was able to show that their study showed higher temps from 141 AD to 1250 AD than today. And the 1250 date indicated a Med WP forAntarctica at that time.

  22. egg October 2, 2014 at 1:55 pm #

    Neville I found this sea level study at CO2 Science, thought you might be interested.

    http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/NIPCC-Report-on-NSW-Coastal-SL-9z-corrected.pdf

  23. Neville October 2, 2014 at 4:06 pm #

    Thanks for that link Egg, amazing how these foolish people think we should adjust our lives to follow stupid models instead of actual local measurements from the tide gauges.

    Fort Denison now shows a SLR of about 7.3cm by 2100 or about 3 inches. That’s lower than the SLR during the 20th century, so where’s the impact from human co2 emissions?

  24. egg October 2, 2014 at 6:37 pm #

    From that link….

    ‘The long-term trend of global temperature change is one of c. 2O C cooling over the last 10,000 years, as revealed by high quality regional climatic datasets.

    ‘The short-term trend of global temperature over the last 10 years, measured instrumentally, is also one of gentle cooling.’

  25. Another Ian October 2, 2014 at 6:42 pm #

    Jen

    Must fit here?

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/and-there-was-a.html#comments

  26. handjive of climatefraud.inc October 3, 2014 at 5:54 am #

    @WB October 2, 2014 at 10:11 am.

    You mention the Karoly and Gergis work.
    There was a related piece yesterday in the Fairfaux press:
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/australias-early-settlers-weathered-drought-and-flooding-rains-20141001-10okhr.html

    This sent me searching for quotes from doomsday climate scientists who claimed stevegoddard and his many posts of newspaper archives were pointless.

    One search returned this information that might be a useful quick read for Ms. Jen regarding The Australian Press Council:

    “The Australian Press Council makes this point forcefully in adopting as the first principle of its Charter of Press Freedom

    Freedom of the press means the right of people to be informed by the press on matters of public interest so that they may exercise their rights and duties as citizens.”

    April 23, 2014. Does Australia have a free press?
    http://persuademe.com.au/category/climate-change/

  27. handjive of climatefraud.inc October 3, 2014 at 7:45 am #

    Speigel, 2010:

    There are various pieces of indirect evidence that support the theory of global warming. Glaciers are receding, sea levels are rising and sea ice in the Arctic regions is disappearing. But these signs are nothing compared with the readings taken at weather stations.

    The problem is that the quality of the raw data derived from weather services around the world differs considerably.

    At a number of weather stations, temperatures rose because houses and factories had been built around them.
    Elsewhere, stations were moved and, as a result, suddenly produced different readings.

    In all of these cases, Jones had to use statistical methods to correct the errors in the temperature readings, using an approach called “homogenization.”

    Did Jones proceed correctly while homogenizing the data?

    Most climatologists still believe Jones’ contention that he did not intentionally manipulate the data.

    However, that belief will have to remain rooted in good faith.

    Under the pressure of McIntyre’s attacks, Jones had to admit something incredible:

    He had deleted his notes on how he performed the homogenization.

    This means that it is not possible to reconstruct how the raw data turned into his temperature curve.

    Also note part 8. The 2 degree target.

    I posted this @realclimate with the link.
    The comment & response is at comment #11.

    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/10/limiting-global-warming-to-2-c-why-victor-and-kennel-are-wrong/comment-page-1/

    Enjoy.

  28. Neville October 3, 2014 at 8:19 am #

    Good point handjive, but whether we believe it or not the 2014 RS and NAS joint report states clearly that there is zero we can do about the climate for thousands of years.
    Even if every country stop all emissions of co2 today it still won’t make a difference. So this BS of aiming for a 2c increase or whatever is just idiotic groupthink garbage.

    Once again here is point 20 of their report from the RS site. They state clearly there is nothing we can do for thousands of years. BTW Bolt forced silly Flannery to admit this about 3 years ago in his radio interview. And of course he was able to get silly Robyn Williams ( ABC’s top science expert???) to blurt out his belief that SLs could rise by 100 metres by 2100. Currently we have a SLR at Sydney of just 0.73mm/ year, yet their ABC’s expert thinks that 1000mm/ year is possible.

    https://royalsociety.org/policy/projects/climate-evidence-causes/question-20/

  29. Neville October 3, 2014 at 9:53 am #

    Yet more uncertainty about Greenland ice melt and how it will impact on SLR in the future.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/02/advances-in-understanding-of-the-greenland-ice-sheets-meltwater-channels/

  30. Neville October 3, 2014 at 12:25 pm #

    Two German scientists call for a moratorium on climate modelling. There’s very little evidence that they serve a useful purpose and govts shouldn’t be wasting endless billions $ because of bogus model projections.

    http://notrickszone.com/2014/10/01/2-german-scientists-calling-for-climate-modelling-moratorium-so-far-only-failures-flops-and-fumbles/

  31. Neville October 3, 2014 at 12:40 pm #

    This 2011 Bali et al study of Himalayan glaciers finds that their recession is decreasing. This is the opposite to the projections of the IPCC.

    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12517-010-0155-9

  32. hunter October 3, 2014 at 12:41 pm #

    Jennifer,
    That call for an inquiry into the BOM is fantastic news for truth and tax payers.
    It is years overdue.

  33. John Broadbent October 3, 2014 at 2:17 pm #

    Dr. Morahasy

    Aafter viewing the location of the weather station in Melbourne’s central business district (CBD), the thought occured to me that there was a significant change in use of CBDs across Australia with the introduction of 7 day trading couple and with a cultural shift away from Sunday worship. I remember Brisbane as having been empty of vehicles, Saturday afternoons and the entire day Sunday up to and including the early eighties. I feel it would be interesting for someone with a dataset to compare temperature on Sundays with say an average of Tuesday to Friday, looking for a heat island signal across say an 1980s break point. My assumption would be that these centrally located thermometers would be subject to surrounding environment and use patterns and not necessarily indicative of climate.

  34. handjive of climatefraud.inc October 3, 2014 at 4:07 pm #

    Maurice Newman refuses briefing with top scientists

    Professor Steffen however has not met Maurice Newman himself, and is unsure as to why he is so reluctant to meet.
    “I don’t understand his thought process.
    All I can say is people who want to deny climate change don’t tend to like meeting credible scientists, because they know the scientific argument on their side is weak, and will be shut down very quickly.

    His recent attack on the Bureau of Meteorology, one of Australia’s most highly respected institutions, is irresponsible.”

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/maurice-newman-refuses-briefing-with-top-scientists-82996

    Monckton of Brenchley would gladly meet with you, Prof. Steffen, for a debate.

    Let’s see you shut down that debate with your facts.

  35. Neville October 3, 2014 at 4:43 pm #

    Roy Spencer has challenged Andy Dessler to a live debate. But the last time Roy was able to debate ??? an alarmist his opponent Gavin Schmidt didn’t have the guts to stay in the same room with him. What a joke these cowards are because they display zero confidence in their own abilities and understanding.
    Just a pity Steffen hasn’t got the guts to debate a real sceptical scientist either.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/09/hey-andy-dessler-lets-debate-live/#comments

  36. cementafriend October 3, 2014 at 6:34 pm #

    Handjive, you are right that Monckton would gladly meet Steffen and show him up for being technically incompetent. Steffen has no mathematical or statistical skills and has no understanding of heat transfer. Steffen’s main claim to fame is that he is a political animal who seems to be able to take in the likes of Green &Labor politicians and Malcolm Turnbull.
    Steffen is featured in some of the earliest climategate emails before he came to Australia organising meetings with other political operators such as Phil Jones.

  37. Another Ian October 3, 2014 at 9:03 pm #

    Jen

    FYI

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/10/03/it-is-all-uhi-in-nsw/

  38. Neville October 4, 2014 at 8:59 am #

    The German scientists continue to ridicule the fraudulent climate models. These models are demonstrably useless at forecasting temperature trends and precipitation yet we continue to waste billions $ every year for a 100% guaranteed zero return. Billions of our taxpayer dollars flushed straight down the drain. Why are we so bloody stupid?
    OH and according to their latest study there will be zero change in temp and co2 emissions for thousands of years, even if we stop all human co2 emissions today.

    http://notrickszone.com/2014/10/03/review-yet-more-expert-peer-reviewed-papers-tell-us-why-climate-models-should-land-in-the-dustbin/#comments

  39. Neville October 4, 2014 at 3:26 pm #

    Another recent study finds that the Holocene optimum temps on Greenland were 2c to 3c warmer than today and the LIA was the coldest period for the entire Holocene as well.

    http://www.co2science.org/articles/V16/N29/C1.php The 2013 Axford et al study shows that the slight warming from the LIA would be expected or do the fanatics really expect those record low Holocene temps to last forever, or cool even further?

  40. Neville October 4, 2014 at 3:48 pm #

    The 2012 Kobashi et al Greenland study also finds many periods over the last 4,000 years that were warmer than today. Here is the summary from Co2 Science———

    Summit Surface Snow Temperatures of Greenland
    Reference
    Kobashi, T., Kawamura, K., Severinghaus, J.P., Barnola, J.-M., Nakaegawa, T., Vinther, B.M., Johnsen, S.J. and Box, J.E. 2011. High variability of Greenland surface temperature over the past 4000 years estimated from trapped air in an ice core. Geophysical Research Letters 38: 10.1029/2011GL049444.
    Background
    The authors write that “Greenland recently incurred [what have been called] record high temperatures and ice loss by melting, adding to concerns that anthropogenic warming is impacting the Greenland ice sheet and in turn accelerating global sea-level rise.” However, they say “it remains imprecisely known for Greenland how much warming is caused by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases versus natural variability.”

    What was done
    In the report of the study they designed to obtain this needed knowledge, Kobashi et al. say they reconstructed “Greenland surface snow temperature variability over the past 4000 years at the GISP2 site (near the Summit of the Greenland ice sheet) with a new method that utilizes argon and nitrogen isotopic ratios from occluded air bubbles.”

    What was learned
    The eight researchers report that the average Greenland snow temperature over the past 4000 years was -30.7°C, while the current decadal (2001-2010) surface temperature at the Greenland Summit is -29.9°C, which they say is as warm as it was there in the 1930s-1940s. And they add that “there was another similarly warm period (-29.7°C) in the 1140s (Medieval Warm Period), indicating that the present decade is not outside the envelope of variability of the last 1000 years.” And, even more telling, prior to the last millennium they report “there were 72 decades warmer than the present one, in which mean temperatures were 1.0 to 1.5°C warmer.” In fact, they found that “during two intervals (~1300 BP and ~3360 BP) centennial average temperatures were nearly 1.0°C warmer (-28.9°C) than the present decade.”

    What it means
    Clearly, there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about Greenland’s recent relative warmth, as it is clear that much warmer temperatures have been experienced there over many prior prolonged periods without any help from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, there is no valid reason to believe that mankind’s burning of coal, gas and oil has had, or is having, any measureable impact on the climate of that part of the world, or any other part of the planet.
    Reviewed 14 March 2012

    Printer Friendly Version

    Copyright ©

  41. egg October 4, 2014 at 5:08 pm #

    Ocean heat remains relatively flat.

    http://oi61.tinypic.com/a44gon.jpg

  42. Another Ian October 5, 2014 at 6:23 am #

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/03/the-201415-el-nino-part-16-is-there-still-hope-for-a-moderate-el-nino/

    His September update is coming

  43. Neville October 5, 2014 at 7:40 am #

    The 2014 Chaudauri, Ponte study of lower Arctic ice during the 2007 season shows that the decrease was due to natural variability and not increased co2.

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/observations-contradict-claim-2007.html

    Some of this natural variability includes solar activity, ocean oscillations, arctic cloud cover etc. Of course that’s the opposite to the alarmist’s yapping since 2007.

  44. Neville October 5, 2014 at 9:02 am #

    Steve McIntyre still isn’t happy with the Pages 2 revision although they have flipped one important temp series up the right way and this has helped to show more Med warming.

    But why does this honest bloke have to point out these absurd failures to these so called experts? And how much is Luke’s so called peer review really worth when they keep making these stupid mistakes?
    The fact is that they’re either not very bright or just a group of con merchants. But Mann etc still like their data used upside down.

    http://climateaudit.org/2014/10/04/okshola-which-way-is-up/#more-20023

  45. egg October 5, 2014 at 11:39 am #

    The hiatus is costing the Klimatariat dearly, so they are moving the goal posts.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/scientists-to-fasttrack-evidence-linking-global-warming-to-wild-weather-9773767.html

    By moving away from temperature and pointing to weather as signal, it gives us the opportunity to discredit them.

  46. Debbie October 5, 2014 at 11:51 am #

    Robert Oct 4 at 8:30 am.
    Very interesting indeed.
    I am guessing that more and more and more and more of this information about Australian weather data will start to appear and it is thanks to people like Jen and all the other scientists, academics, statisticians and ex BoM & ex CSIRO & ex DPI etc record keepers who aren’t being compromised to consider any form of ‘protectionism’ when they publicly offer their research information.
    As a member of a generational farming operation, we are fully aware that the recent packaging and reporting of Australian weather/climate data. . .particularly but not only the temperature data. . .is fraught with BS conclusions that lead to reporting and scaremongering such as “2013 was the hottest Australian Summer on record” and even further rhetoric like “The Angry Summer”.
    Because our expertise is in agricultural production. . .we don’t have the time or the wherewithal to correct this crass BS in the public arena. . . even though our generational knowledge of Australian weather/climate runs very deep and is a very important component of our operational capabilities. We were probably among the first of the demographic groups to call BS on much of the reporting but of course. . .and very, very unfortunately. . . as a demographic we are traditionally quite pathetic at representing ourselves in the public arena. The more Australia has become urbanised, the more acute this problem has become for Australian agriculture.
    Thank goodness that there are still plenty of people like Jen around who do have the wherewithal to be heard in the public arena and have taken the time to expose the highly questionable treatment of Australian weather data.
    I can’t thank them enough.
    BoM is being slowly but surely busted over its treatment of Australian weather data and its myopic focus on neatly packaging its data so it can be used to report our weather/climate like it is some type of immensely scary, RECORD BREAKING(!!!!) & highly team orientated sporting event!
    From my perspective as a producer . . . BoM has become so enamoured with all its fancy, dancy and very expensive technology and so focused on increasing its political PR exposure that. . . as an entity . . .it has almost completely lost its way as far as its role as a PUBLIC SERVICE is concerned.
    If BoM is not adding real value to the people and enterprises that work in the REAL weather/climate/environment day in and day out. . .and it is actually those same people and enterprises who are becoming increasingly derisive of the ‘weather, climate & tree police’ :-). . . .then who or what are gaining a return on the investment into the fancy, dancy & expensive technology??????
    Or put even more simply. .who and/or what is considered by BoM to be the actual beneficiaries of all this truncating and homogenising of the Australian weather records??????

  47. egg October 5, 2014 at 12:45 pm #

    2 Oct 2014 – ‘Snowfall in early October in the Perm area “is not the norm for the region,” said Andrew Shikhova, of the Regional Center for Geographic Information Systems.

    ‘Another record was broken in Vladivostok, which registered the lowest absolute minimum air temperature in more than 130-year history of weather observations.

    ‘Tuesday morning in the seaside capital was only plus one degree Celsius.

    ‘This broke the previous record low of 4.3 degrees set on 30 September 1968, according to Tass.

    ‘Last week saw the first snow in the Krasnodar Territory, where total snowfall in Krasnaya Polyana reached 7 cm.

    ‘That doesn’t seem like much, but “the real winter in the mountains of Sochi usually comes in December.”

    Ice Age Now

  48. Daryl McDonald October 5, 2014 at 1:22 pm #

    G’day.

    For those out there who are not extremely time challenged, i.e., those involved in producing the WORLD’S MOST IMPORTANT COMMODITY,…… FOOD, and those that need to produce reliable, useful real world outcomes from their toils, a challenge.

    1. Reconcile the expenditure on climate research vs the leanings of the governments.
    This will show an undeniable correlation between spending and the leanings of progressive/leftist/green governments.

    2. Reconcile the EMPRICALLY MEASURED reductions in CO2 emissions against the expenditure of these governments. This will show that there is bugger all correlation between the two.

    3. Plot the national debt of the progressive/leftist/green governments.
    This will show a true hockey stick graph.

    4. Have a close look at the cathedrals, courthouses, post offices etc, in historic towns, particularly where gold was found. Compare them with todays computer designed structures. This will show that our forebears, without even a $2 calculator were able to design, and build incredibly, precise, intricate structures. These structure typically show zero cracks or structural defects despite a century plus of climate change. Ask yourself if these old guys and their tedious manual measurements and calculations did a better job than today’s computer generated, out of plumb boxes.

    5. Ask yourself, ‘IS AGW THEORY the product of OBJECTIVE or SUBJECTIVE thinking?’

    6. Tell your mates and any politicians you know. Most of them have been barking up the wrong tree.

    Cheers, Slowlurnr.

  49. Daryl McDonald October 5, 2014 at 1:53 pm #

    Reply to Debbie.

    Well said. Remember, as a food producer, you are doing THE MOST IMPORTANT JOB ON THE PLANET.
    Consider objectively. If all of any other profession in the world, retired,……. a bit of chaos, a few sick people, and a boon for the undertakers.
    If all the farmers retired (average age 55+ in Aust), we would have to bury the dead standing up.

    Cheers, Slowlurnr.

  50. Debbie October 5, 2014 at 5:17 pm #

    Thanks Daryl.
    We love what we do and we also know that what we do is very important.
    Australian farmers are among the most efficient, productive & environmentally responsible in the world.
    My recent travels to India & Indonesia have left me with the overwhelming impression that those in the ‘urban environmental elite’ who consistently demonize Australian agriculture should go observe what I have recently seen and then come back to Australia and dare to tell us we’re doing it wrong.
    It’s my turn to now compliment you on your excellent precis of expenditure, funding, technology etc & your particularly sound observation of the people who pioneered rural and regional Australia.
    Of course they were solid and scrupulously meticulous.
    Where I live in the MIA we can easily see how amazing it is that the entire Snowy Hydro scheme and the bulk of the rail, road, water storage and water regulatory infrastructure was designed and built without the assistance of such things as GPS and laser technology, and certainly no computers or giant automated and computerized excavation equipment.
    Yet it still stands today.

  51. Another Ian October 5, 2014 at 6:07 pm #

    Debbie,

    “Where I live in the MIA we can easily see how amazing it is that the entire Snowy Hydro scheme and the bulk of the rail, road, water storage and water regulatory infrastructure was designed and built without the assistance of such things as GPS and laser technology, and certainly no computers or giant automated and computerized excavation equipment.
    Yet it still stands today.”

    Similar for the Great Wall of China

  52. Neville October 5, 2014 at 6:12 pm #

    Another silly Gore con bites the dust. Researchers have found that Greenland only lost about a quarter of its ice during the 8c warmer temps of the Eemian IG. Will these fraudsters ever give up?

    http://www.thegwpf.com/false-alarm-greenland-ice-simply-melt-8c-warmer-today/

  53. Richard C (NZ) October 6, 2014 at 11:05 am #

    egg October 4, 2014 at 5:08 pm # >”Ocean heat remains relatively flat.”

    http://oi61.tinypic.com/a44gon.jpg

    That’s temperature, not heat. A small change in temperature means a lot of heat when the medium is water e.g.

    http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/heat_content55-07.png

    That amount of heat would raise the temperature of the lower troposphere a horrendous amount, see:

    Estuarine Science – ‘Why does the air warm faster than the water?’

    “About one unit of heat energy is needed to warm the air one degree Celsius. Four times more heat energy is needed to warm the water one degree Celsius. (Look at the table below for the heat capacity of some common materials).”
    http://omp.gso.uri.edu/ompweb/doee/science/physical/chtemp6.htm

    However, NOAA is not the final word on OHC. The UKMO let the cat out of the bag but quickly shoved it back in, see:

    ‘UKMO EN3 Ocean Heat Content Anomaly Data Disappeared From The KNMI Climate Explorer As Suddenly As It Appeared’

    Bob Tisdale. Posted on June 2, 2012

    See graphs,
    http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/06/02/ukmo-en3-ocean-heat-content-anomaly-data-disappeared-from-the-knmi-climate-explorer-as-suddenly-as-it-appeared/

    I suggest you stop looking at the global average for SLR, ST/SST, OHC, and get into looking basin-by-basin e.g. at the NOAA page go to,

    Basin time series fields ASCII files:
    http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/basin_data.html

    3-month from 1955 to present – Basin time series
    Atlantic:
    Indian:
    Pacific:
    World:

    World OHC is skewed by the Indian Ocean. Bob Tisdale has graphed all of these, try Google Images. OHC rise is not a global phenomenon.

    Similarly for SLR. You could look at world e.g.

    http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2014_rel4/sl_ns_global.png
    http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/fileadmin/images/data/Products/indic/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_IB_RWT_GIA_Adjust.gif

    Phooey! Take a look basin-by-basin:

    http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/fileadmin/images/data/Products/indic/msl/MSL_Map_MERGED_Global_IB_RWT_NoGIA_Adjust.gif

    World is skewed by the region north of Australia. Vast areas of the eastern Pacific with no change last 20 years, some even exhibiting a fall. SLR is not a global phenomenon either.

    That makes reconciling the IPCC’s budget of linear SLR trends to basin observations somewhat problematic:

    From AR4 5.5.6 Total Budget of the Global Mean Sea Level Change

    Table 5.3.
    Sea Level Rise (mm yr–1)
    Source 1961–2003 1993–2003
    Thermal Expansion 0.42 ± 0.12 1.6 ± 0.5
    Glaciers and Ice Caps 0.50 ± 0.18 0.77 ± 0.22
    Greenland Ice Sheet 0.05 ± 0.12 0.21 ± 0.07
    Antarctic Ice Sheet 0.14 ± 0.41 0.21 ± 0.35
    Sum 1.1 ± 0.5 2.8 ± 0.7
    Observed 1.8 ± 0.5 3.1 ± 0.7
    Difference (Observed –Sum) 0.7 ± 0.7 0.3 ± 1.0

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch5s5-5-6.html

  54. Debbie October 6, 2014 at 5:51 pm #

    Another Ian Oct 5th at 6.07.
    What about the coat hanger? Sydney Harbour Bridge?
    Or for that matter. . .most of the bridges around the world?
    The list is probably endless.
    Yet apparently, those record keepers who came from the same era and were trained to be equally meticulous, in places like Bourke & Bathurst & Rutherglen etc. . . they did it wrong and made careless mistakes that need to be adjusted?

  55. egg October 6, 2014 at 6:07 pm #

    Thanks for that Richard, I’ll take my time going through them.

  56. egg October 6, 2014 at 6:46 pm #

    You make a good argument and I agree we need to go basin by basin to understand what is going on.

    Not sure how we can convince the general public that the IPCC has SLR wrong.

  57. egg October 7, 2014 at 10:04 am #

    Walter Cunningham, who flew on Apollo 7, said: “Climate science is one of the greatest scientific fiascos of all time.”

    – See more at: http://www.thegwpf.com/apollo-astronauts-climate-science-one-of-the-greatest-scientific-fiascos/#sthash.glMYGTJr.dpuf

  58. Neville October 7, 2014 at 3:49 pm #

    Early heavy snowfalls arrives in Alaska and Canada.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/10/winter-arrives-early-in-alaska-snow-for-all-canadian-provinces/

  59. egg October 7, 2014 at 5:40 pm #

    ‘Early heavy snowfalls arrives in Alaska and Canada.’

    That’s because the northern hemisphere is getting warmer.

  60. egg October 8, 2014 at 7:34 am #

    Stevenson Screen spotted at Observatory Hill.

    https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/screenhunter_3274-oct-03-05-07.gif

  61. Neville October 8, 2014 at 7:58 am #

    Now even some of the climate modellers aren’t sure whether co2 will have a small or greater impact on our future climate.
    Even Richard Betts from the Met office in the UK. Unbelievable.

    http://notrickszone.com/2014/10/07/undeniable-mood-change-with-regards-to-quality-of-climate-modelling-grips-climate-science-trust-gone/

  62. Neville October 8, 2014 at 7:54 pm #

    Steve McIntyre compares the much changed and messy Pages 2K study to the Hanhijarvi study of the past 2000 years.

    http://climateaudit.org/2014/10/07/pages2k-vs-the-hanjiharvi-reconstruction/#more-20048

    The hanhijarvi study shows a higher Med WP , a definite LIA and a lower Modern WP. Pages 2K have now used some of their data up the right way but Steve is still far from happy.

  63. AG October 11, 2014 at 4:30 pm #

    How come the Rutherglen page is still up?

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/rutherglen/rutherglen-station.shtml

  64. egg October 12, 2014 at 5:06 pm #

    Another paper says Antarctic warming due to geothermal heat.

    https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/antarctic-volcano1.gif

    This extraordinary news probably won’t see the light of day on the MSM.

  65. egg October 12, 2014 at 6:17 pm #

    “We will not have a carbon tax, the Australian people have spoken and Labor is not going to go back to that,” Mr Shorten told reporters in Sydney on Saturday.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-says-labor-wants-to-tackle-carbon-pollution-but-rules-out-return-of-carbon-tax-20141011-114nmp.html

  66. egg October 12, 2014 at 6:55 pm #

    New Survey Shock

    ‘Another interesting aspect of this new survey is that it reports on the beliefs of scientists themselves rather than bureaucrats who often publish alarmist statements without polling their member scientists.

    ‘We now have meteorologists, geoscientists and engineers all reporting that they are skeptics of an asserted global warming crisis, yet the bureaucrats of these organizations frequently suck up to the media and suck up to government grant providers by trying to tell us the opposite of what their scientist members actually believe.’

    Taylor / Forbes

  67. egg October 13, 2014 at 8:55 pm #

    Icebergs drifted to Florida 21,000 BP

    https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/icebergs_to_florida.jpg

  68. egg October 13, 2014 at 9:44 pm #

    ‘Entrepreneur and venture capitalist Larry Marshall has been appointed as the new chief executive of CSIRO by the chairman of the board, Simon McKeon.

    ‘Dr Marshall, who has started a number of technology companies in the US, began his career as a cadet at the Defence Science and Technology Organisation.

    ‘He will start at CSIRO in January 2015.’

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/venture-capitalist-larry-marshall-appointed-new-csiro-head-20141009-113g4x.html#ixzz3G1a50oqF

  69. Neville October 14, 2014 at 7:35 am #

    It seems that over the last 18 years Sydney and Melbourne have been cooling slightly according to the satellite record. Here’s Melbourne———-

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/10/13/satellites-show-melbourne-cooling-for-18-years/

    And here’s Sydney———

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/10/13/rss-shows-sydney-cooling-for-18-years/

  70. egg October 14, 2014 at 8:52 am #

    Excellent catch, Neville.

  71. egg October 14, 2014 at 5:42 pm #

    ‘A new battle line has been drawn in international politics. It’s not capitalism versus statism, nor is it Islam versus the West. The new global political divide has been created over fears of catastrophic global warming.

    ‘Groups like the United Nations and the European Union have been pushing hard to convince member states to keep their coal, natural gas and oil reserves in the ground for the sake of the climate. But after 18 years with no global warming and many countries experiencing huge economic and social gains from fossil fuel use, some governments are drawing the line.’

    The Daily Caller

  72. handjive of climatefraud.inc October 15, 2014 at 6:48 am #

    Ms. Jen, i am not qualified to attempt any course run by you, but, I am qualified.

    For a bit of fun, I thought i would do the “Climate Change” course @ Macquarie Uni, run by award winning climate scientist Lesley Hughes.

    I only attempted each module once.
    The option was for three attempts with best score chosen.

    It was a painful experience of listening to the same old propaganda.
    Luckily it was only one hour a week.

    https://learn.open2study.com/mod/certificate/view.php?id=46144&action=get

  73. Neville October 15, 2014 at 7:45 am #

    Another lunatic study on SLR from the religious numbskulls. But Anthony has a good response to their silly nonsense.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/14/claim-no-change-in-sea-level-until-modern-times-but-that-change-is-dwarfed-by-sea-levels-of-the-past/

  74. Neville October 15, 2014 at 4:18 pm #

    The Bolter nails the hypocrites and extremists once again. In Oct 2012 we had snow in the Blue Mountains that extended well into Qld, then in Oct 2013 we had bushfires and now in 2014 we’ve had more snow and ice that has blocked some highways overnight and this morning.

    But of course last year every leftie and his dog was screaming climate change and some even blamed Tony Abbott even though he had only been in govt for just a few weeks. Silly Luke thought that the Bandt drongo was a hero for berating Abbott at that time. This is the level of stupidity and infantilism we’ve had top deal with trying to argue with these fraudsters and con merchants.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/where_are_the_warmists_one_year_later/

  75. egg October 15, 2014 at 4:32 pm #

    Looking to the past to discover the future, Easterbrook points the way.

    http://www.kaltesonne.de/?p=21199

  76. egg October 15, 2014 at 6:05 pm #

    Hmmm…

    “Among the future trends that will impact our national security is climate change,” said Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel. “Rising global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels, and more extreme weather events will intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty, and conflict.

    “By taking a proactive, flexible approach to assessment, analysis, and adaptation, the Defense Department will keep pace with a changing climate, minimize its impacts on our missions, and continue to protect our national security.”

  77. Neville October 15, 2014 at 6:58 pm #

    This lecture by Prof Christopher Essex should be given to every fool who thinks we should believe a lot of the BS about climate models.
    He is a prof of mathematics and has been a climate modeller for a long time. He worked with Ross McKitrick to write the book “Taken By Storm” and respects the work of both McIntyre and McKitrick.

    Just after the start of this lecture he states that Mann’s HS was wrong on so many levels. Anyway his lecture really tells us that so much of the CAGW scare is essentially based on a lot doubtful stuff fed into the models and he laughs at a lot of this nonsense during the lecture.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvhipLNeda4

  78. Neville October 15, 2014 at 7:20 pm #

    Tony Heller has been looking at OZ temps as measured by the RSS satellite data. He finds that 2013 was cool and that OZ temps have been dropping since 1998.
    Not much difference now for OZ temps when compared to 1979.

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/10/15/boms-hottest-year-ever-was-complete-nonsense/

  79. egg October 15, 2014 at 9:08 pm #

    Predicting seasonal weather accurately is important in our attempt to replace the dominant paradigm, because BoM is not too good at it.

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/moon-man-ken-rings-summer-predictions-checked-and-ready-weekend-review-ca-129256

  80. Neville October 16, 2014 at 7:42 am #

    According to RSS Australia’s warmest place isn’t warming at all. Who to believe

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/10/15/australias-fastest-warming-place-isnt-warming/#comments

  81. Neville October 16, 2014 at 7:50 am #

    Silly economic garbage from OZ’s new Booker prize winner.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/there-is-plenty-here-to-make-us-wince/story-fni0ffxg-1227091628651

  82. egg October 16, 2014 at 6:08 pm #

    New Precipitation Software

    http://phys.org/news/2014-10-weather-history-machine.html

    By going back in time and checking all the switches, its possible to reconstruct the past and glimpse the future. Its not rocket science.

  83. egg October 16, 2014 at 6:47 pm #

    2050s predicted to be moderately warm.

    http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c01bb079804d9970d-pi

  84. egg October 16, 2014 at 8:41 pm #

    BoM Seasonal Outlook

    ‘The October to December temperature outlooks are for warmer than normal days over most of Australia particularly in the far southeast, and warmer than normal nights with the exception of the northern tropical regions.

    ‘Climate influences include warmer than normal temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole.’

    —–

    Warmer than normal in the south-east, I have my doubts. The east coast low was a shocker, snowing in the Blue Mountains and freezing winds for days.

    Admittedly its appearance is unpredictable, but should soften the numbers.

  85. egg October 16, 2014 at 8:58 pm #

    Not sure about this prediction by Kevin Long, but I’ll keep an open mind.

    ‘It should also be noted that during the last 34 years, most of the below-average rainfall years have coincided with above-average sea ice years. Going hand-in-hand with the continued sea ice growth, the average MDB rainfall has suffered a progressive decline of about 25%.

    ‘My studies indicate that these declining rainfall trends will continue for another 30 years, driven by sustained reduction in solar radiation levels (i.e. greatly reduced solar winds and sunspots numbers).’

  86. Neville October 17, 2014 at 7:26 am #

    Egg the MDB annual average rainfall has increased by 4.88mm/ decade over the last 114 years.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=mdb&season=0112&ave_yr=T

    But the period of about 8 years after 2001 was very low but the late 1890s to about 1904 was very low as well. The 1940s drought wasn’t good either. The heavier rainfall of the 50s and 70s coincided with the big cool phase of the PDO + more la ninas.

  87. egg October 17, 2014 at 9:27 am #

    Thanks for all that Neville, I’m on a quest to find a long range weather forecaster who consistently gets it right.

    Neutral ENSO and Neutral IOD reign at the moment and should tell us something.

  88. egg October 17, 2014 at 1:25 pm #

    The US winter forecast suggests the jet stream will play a dominant part.

    ‘Below average temperatures are favored in parts of the south-central and southeastern United States, while above-average temperatures are most likely in the western U.S., Alaska, Hawaii and New England, according to the U.S. Winter Outlook, issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.’

    Anthony Watts

    If this pattern was active in the depths of glaciation, it might explain more accurately the route humans took in conquering the Americas.

  89. egg October 17, 2014 at 3:55 pm #

    ABC convenes board in search of scientific balance. It looks like a whitewash …..

    https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2014/10/abcs-stacked-audit-deck/

  90. Neville October 18, 2014 at 9:45 am #

    A new study finds more warming would make the oceans more alkaline not more acidic.

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/new-paper-debunks-acidification-scare.html

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #152 | Watts Up With That? - October 6, 2014

    […] Without careful and transparent delineation, records that have undergone mathematical manipulation cannot be considered to be the same as direct observations. Add to this, that the conclusions are based, in part, on simulations of climate models that have not been validated. See links under Measurement Issues, Lowering Standards, and http://jennifermarohasy.com/2014/09/open-thread-30/ […]

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