Open Thread

So, I have revamped the blog. Hopefully nothing has been lost. I’ve still got some work to do, for example, sorting information into the new ‘Popular Topics’. The search button should still quickly find you what you want, as long as you can remember the author’s name or a key word or two.  Thanks for your patience today, and for the next little while.

236 Responses to Open Thread

  1. Neville June 17, 2014 at 8:53 pm #

    I’d like to link to my last post here, because the prof’s info is pertinent and important.

    Geologist and glaciologist Prof Schluchter of Bern uni claims that science today is fundamentally dishonest.
    He is the author of 250 papers and is a giant in his field. He states that NH glaciers were much smaller in Roman times and the Rhone glacier was an ice free area 5,800 years out of the last 10,000 years.
    He also states there was a rapid retreat of glaciers in 1850 and then advances in the 1880s, 1920s and 1980s.
    This is a must read for anyone who thinks that our present temps are unusual or unprecedented. Of course temps today are not unusual at all.

  2. jaycee June 18, 2014 at 7:58 am #

    Neville, ol’ sol…how do you think those Germanic raiding tribes crossed the Rhine and The Danube and other frozen rivers, with all their army hordes , backup supply wagons, goods and chattels, women and children…raided Gaul and any place south and then recrossed those same rivers with their captured slaves and booty before the spring thaw ..all this on a yearly regular basis…UNTIL the Romans placed the multitude of forts all along the nth. rivers to put a stop (wrong!) to those marauding parties….AND were quite often stalled with their more cumbersome regular army because of the fierce winters?

    I’d “work” on the good “professor’s” theory for a tad longer if’n I was you.

  3. jaycee June 18, 2014 at 8:00 am #

    And BTW. when you say “Roman Times” you could include the years from c. ; 750 bc. to 1450 ad…..that’s a bloody long thaw!

  4. Neville June 18, 2014 at 8:44 am #

    JC I think I’ll take his knowledge and experience before yours???? any day. Lomborg covered the same earlier NH glaciers disappearance in his book as well. He states that a number of studies show that glacier advance reached a maximum for the Holocene during the LIA. But by all means give us a link to back up your musings.

    BTW it looks cold water from Antarctica is the reason for huge numbers of dead fish on Vic and Tassie coast.
    Once again exactly the opposite to the yarn we’ve been told by the CSIRO warmists.

  5. Neville June 18, 2014 at 8:58 am #

    Big surprise, energy from so called carbon free energy isn’t growing at all. Of course that’s after wasting 100s of billions $ on all sorts of fraudulent taxpayer funded schemes that can never work.

    The EU and Germany are now building more coal fired stns to try and fix their energy grids.

  6. jaycee June 18, 2014 at 9:13 am #

    Neville…you didn’t answer ANY of my questions…when oh when are you going to do some talking for yourself and stop quoting other people?…..

    So..back to my original q. ; How do you think…?

  7. Emily Fraser June 18, 2014 at 9:54 am #


    Neville is simply suggesting the climate can change naturally. When was the last frost fair on the Thames, 1814?

    Yeah it has warmed since. But is it as warm now as it was during medieval warm period with grapes grown in England?

    What about this glacial retreat since 1980s?

    And as regards thinking for yourself. Don’t you prefer the authority of the BOM to Marohasy?

  8. sp June 18, 2014 at 10:13 am #

    So Jaycee is an expert on roman history now?

  9. sp June 18, 2014 at 10:17 am #

    BTW Jaycee – tell us how the Cimbri left their lands (about modern day Fresia) and invaded Roman territories – I have read it was due to climate change, it seems the sea levels rose and they had to move – educate us Jaycee

  10. Neville June 18, 2014 at 10:23 am #

    JC I’ll leave you to talk to yourself. I’m interested in real PR studies from experts who are actually at the forefront of their science and ARE NOT MINDLESSLY PUSHING THE CAGW barrow.

    So why do all the recent SL studies show about 17cm rise by 2100 and the most recent Leclercque 2014 world glacier study show a slowing in retreat since 1950-?
    Rather wrecks the CAGW theory you’ve been peddling doesn’t it? Contrary to your stance you should venture into more sceptic blogs and you may understand why so many people are not buying this nonsense.

    But tell us how we can mitigate your CAGW and don’t forget the simple maths etc when you try.
    And a caution about the carbon free energy con above while you think about it.

  11. Neville June 18, 2014 at 10:40 am #

    A new study has found that climate models can only simulate or predict 6% of AC clouds.
    This has been one of Lindzen, Christy, Spencer Michael’s regular beefs about the exaggerated CAGW theory.
    If you can’t properly account for clouds in the models you are bound to have errors.
    If there was only 1-2% less clouds over the last 30 years that would possibly account for the warming.

  12. Debbie June 18, 2014 at 2:11 pm #

    Perhaps instead of complaining that people don’t answer your questions you might consider asking better questions and/or advancing your view without asking a question that already has your answer/view embedded in the question?
    Emily has probably hit the nail on the head.
    You have asked Neville an irrelevant question.

    Most people (probably including Neville if his comments are anything to go by) would agree that because humanity is one of the more successful species on the planet, humanity could now be having some stronger influences on weather/climate.
    The idea that it’s all alarming and dangerous and negative and unprecedented and ‘worse than we thought’ is up for question.
    So is the idea that taxing CO2 or creating an ETS is the ONLY way to manage such things as bushfires and coastal erosion or extreme weather events like random storms, droughts, floods or severe cold events.

  13. Neville June 18, 2014 at 3:43 pm #

    Debbie I’ve always said I believe there is probably some AGW in the system, but trying to mitigate it is a waste of time and money. It will never work.
    So we should use our NOW BORROWED funds on adaptation and more R&D to be ready for anything nature throws at us. Extreme events have always occurred in the
    past and alas will occur in the future.

    Andrew Bolt pays tribute here to his mate Ray Evans and includes a link to Ray’s 9 facts about climate change.
    I remember reading this about 7 years ago and it was sensible then and is still as relevant today.
    Many interesting graphs etc and very useful if you have the time to read it.

  14. Neville June 18, 2014 at 4:01 pm #

    A good article about SLs by Viv Forbes. Many links at the end .

  15. jaycee June 18, 2014 at 4:02 pm #

    Jeeezus!…you mob are tetchy!!….get outa the wrong side of bed do we ?

  16. Debbie June 18, 2014 at 4:26 pm #

    Tetchy Jaycee?
    About what?
    After a cold and foggy start. . .today is a beautiful, sunny and normal June winter’s day.
    All the native fauna and flora seems to be enjoying it too.
    Pretty much au fait with it all despite the large variation tween min & max temps today.

  17. jaycee June 18, 2014 at 4:54 pm #

    Debbie!…are you rehearsing for the role of “Doctor Doolittle” ?

  18. Debbie June 18, 2014 at 5:06 pm #

    Just doing a bit of that layman’s observation stuff that you claim you like doing Jaycee.
    And it is a beautifully normal winter’s day.
    So you don’t need to worry about wrong sides of bed or anything like that.

  19. sp June 18, 2014 at 5:33 pm #

    Jaycee – still waiting for you to expound on the Cimbri and how rising sea levels forced them to leave their lands and seek to pass through Roman territory – a well documented event so it should not be hard for you to track down …. waiting

  20. Neville June 18, 2014 at 6:54 pm #

    Gav I just speed read your links and I have to ask ,—–ARE YOU JOKING???

    Probably the silliest waste of time and money to achieve nothing that I’ve ever seen. Please tell us you’re not serious?

  21. jaycee June 18, 2014 at 7:12 pm #

    What “rising sea levels” !!?? the Cimbric peninsula (in the maps of Ptolemy) was populated by many tribes besides the a matter of fact, under the united appelation of “Danes” we also have our own “Saxons”….which was a name generic to many tribes incl’ the Cimbri that sailed out from the Lower Elbe, the Lower Rhine, the Weser and the Eyder…these people were sailors and pirates from the shores of Britain to the Bay of Biscay !…that the remnants were last defeated near Verona may give weight to a passing through Roman territory…BUT..having been a pain in the side of Rome from the sixth century BC…till the second consulship of the emperor Trajan….(thank you Tacitus)……your little time line and relating of a single event (if indeed it WAS an event and not just an interpretation of another foray of the Germanic hordes into Gaul)…leaves your simple question sounding a tad trite and vacuous…= Fail…go back and do some research….

  22. jaycee June 18, 2014 at 7:19 pm #

    Debbie..getting away from the silliness onto a serious ques’….I believe you puddle around a bit with irrigated farming….so can we talk marketing of produce…i was discussing such with a veggie grower today about selling and they said that with the demise of a central buyer, they did their own search and sell for their produce…do you also do the same…and if you do, do you sell to a “middle-man” who on-sells your produce in smaller increments to retail buyers…and the big one..: When you go seeking your markets to sell the produce, are you asked to bargain for the sale, or do you just offer a flat rate / tonne or is it cut-throat out there in the now unregulated sale-yards?
    A lot, I know, but I am curious to know how the produce / cereal market operates.
    Ta!…in advance.

  23. gavin June 18, 2014 at 8:07 pm #

    Nev “Probably the silliest waste of time and money to achieve nothing that I’ve ever seen”

    I did say “Nev can skip this though”. Serves you right for looking.

    What a bombastic negative contribution!

  24. Neville June 18, 2014 at 8:30 pm #

    No not negative or bombastic but entirely honest and factual. Here’s the proof and you only require the use of 5 year old kiddie sums to work it out.
    Couldn’t be easier, but if you don’t agree then tell us how we can mitigate your CAGW.

  25. sp June 18, 2014 at 8:35 pm #

    Jaycee – what rubbish!

    The Cimbri were a tribe from Northern Europe, who, together with the Teutones and the Ambrones threatened the Roman Republic in the late 2nd century BC. The Cimbri were probably Germanic,though some believe them to be of Celtic origin. The ancient sources located their original home inJütland, in present-day Denmark, which was referred to as the Cimbrian peninsula throughout antiquity. In sources beginning with the Royal Frankish Annals, the Merovingian kings of the Franks traditionally traced their lineage through a pre-Frankish tribe called the Sicambri who came from Gelderland in modern Netherlands and are named for the Sieg river.

    The Cymbrian flood

    The Cymbrian flood (or Cimbrian flood) was a large-scale incursion of the sea in the region of theJütland peninsula in the period 120 to 114 BC, resulting in a permanent alteration of the coastline with much land lost. This disaster killed many, and sent others living in the area south, in search of new lands. It was one of a number of such conflagrations of nature in northwest Europe during the Roman period, the climate between 300 BC and about 100 AD producing frequent storms and the blowing of sand near the coast.

  26. jaycee June 18, 2014 at 8:58 pm #

    “Jaycee – what rubbish!”

    Are you absolutely mad, sp.?…what besides the extra base hit of the bleedin’ Franks are you saying that is any way THAT different to what i wrote !!??….where the hell do you think the “Danes” are from…and the Cimbric peninsular of yours is the same as mine…no bulls##t…you’re stark raving mad!!

  27. jaycee June 18, 2014 at 9:02 pm #

    sp. don’t bother answering my post…I won’t discuss things with a fool…go trouble others…gormless!

  28. Debbie June 18, 2014 at 9:53 pm #

    Depends on which crop Jaycee.
    We grow several different cereal crops summer and winter. . .and except for some contracted seed crops. . .most of our produce is exported.
    Only grow veggies for ourselves, not for market. . .love my veggie patch 🙂
    But plenty of veggies grown commercially here. . .much of that is exported too.
    The logistics and the marketing has its issues but is not the riskiest issue we have to deal with.

  29. sp June 18, 2014 at 10:49 pm #

    Sorry to upset you Jaycee.

    I was more focused on the bits about a large-scale incursion of the sea in the region of theJütland peninsula in the period 120 to 114 BC and that during the Roman period, the climate between 300 BC and about 100 AD producing frequent storms and the blowing of sand near the coast.

    Extreme weather even then, who would have thought

  30. gavin June 18, 2014 at 10:54 pm #

    Nev, why give us that odd item on energy projection when your site has all this to offer

    Our host probably knows you Nev, but after all this time I see only a mouth piece for other individuals all logged on to a couple of anti MS science blogs however in your tiresome repetitive rhetoric there is no home grown base for any actual effort to be challenged.

    BTW there is a fast and powerful new laptop sitting on my kitchen table with all the essential external drives waiting to be run in before this week is over because it’s a gift for my No1 publisher in training. I also have to load all my pictorial work and unfinished docs from several years of studying Australian and overseas manufactured hand tools that helped build our industries after WW2 where in many cases it had been a local hand to mouth struggle to compete with the flood of imports the Menzies Government had to have in policies designed to give our rural sector the edge.

    From another perspective, I need to prepare for another phase in BC treatment a section and bypass op due next month. So Nev if you are not prepared to come out and go toe to toe with your anti AGW campaign for a mo I have to reckon you want to hide behind blog curtains with SD for the duration. Just being full of bloated opinion won’t do Nev. It’s substance required, not slippery passes.

  31. jaycee June 18, 2014 at 11:49 pm #

    Debbie…when you say “exported” , do you mean ; out of the country , or interstate?…also, I presume you yourself don’t do the actual exporting, so do you work through a common purchasing agent with other producers, or do you sell your produce to the exporter?
    I ask the last because producers here in SA. talk of their produce being “exported” to the eastern states.

    sp. I did get a tad hot under the collar apologies.

  32. Neville June 19, 2014 at 12:26 am #

    Well Gav I’ve given you the best projections we have for co2 emissions until 2040.
    If the fact that the OECD will virtually flat line over that period and non OECD will have soaring co2 emissions doesn’t register there is little more that is left for me to explain.

    But I’ll just add that in 2010 the non OECD emitted 1.4 times more co2 than the OECD and by 2040 that is projected to blow out to 3.3 times more co2 emissions. Fairly easy to understand isn’t it?

  33. Debbie June 19, 2014 at 7:29 am #

    Most of our produce is exported OS Jaycee.
    Who we work with depends on the crop.
    We do in fact manage our contract seed crops ourselves but the prices are dictated by the market.
    Prices also partly influence which crops we decide to produce each year.
    The best & the easiest for us is usually rice as the growers collectively own the company and therefore most of the paddock to plate process.
    As I previously commented. . .marketing and logistics does have its issues but that’s not what can cause us to lose sleep.

  34. jaycee June 19, 2014 at 7:57 am #

    Thanks again, Deb….I’m not trying to provoke or be nosey…it’s just that I do wonder, given the cost of just putting a crop in the ground, what factors are MOST influential (except the obvious in location and soil) in selecting what crop to; is it a cereal / veggie food crop, a fodder crop or a stock feed-lot?

    Again, I ask as another old farmer told of one of his broadacre farming sons coming to him one day saying that they might as well sell up as it was going to cost him more to put the crop in than what he will get (a projected price?)for it on the market….and he reiterated with telling of the volatility of prices for cereal crops.

  35. Debbie June 19, 2014 at 9:03 am #

    I have answered your first question which was a question about how we market our crop.
    The answer is simply. . .It depends on which crop.
    We don’t grow just one crop. We are reasonably flexible as we grow crops that are annual crops and we make those decisions annually and part of that decision is of course based on markets. Our family farming business has NEVER relied solely on one commodity.

    You have now asked a new question which is what factors are MOST influential (minus the obvious ones).
    Yet you seem to be focusing on the fact that some old farmers are not coping with the fact that farmers supply a real product for a real consumer and hence should be aware of their markets?
    From your anecdote. . .there is nothing at all amiss with what the son said to his Dad.
    If his Dad was not prepared to be flexible. . .especially if he has choices. . . and just wanted to do it the same way he has always done it. . . and grow the same stuff he has always grown. . .then IMHO that’s a recipe for exactly what the son said.
    This also relates a little to the fact that some farmers have been ‘sold a pup’ re carbon farming in marginal areas.
    They got sold that pup when they were at their most vulnerable and did not really have an opportunity assess their market. . .mainly because the market was contrived.
    I my patch a lot of vulnerable people got sold a different pup but the basics are essentially the same.

  36. Neville June 19, 2014 at 9:11 am #

    Just more proof of climate change in Sth America that backs other studies that show how periods of drought changed the area over about 900 years.

    Rainfall changed over that long period of time and co2 was ALWAYS below 300 ppmv.

  37. Neville June 19, 2014 at 9:37 am #

    Another new study finds that the east Antarctic ice sheet will accumulate more ice for the next 200 years and of course have a negative influence on SLR.

  38. jaycee June 19, 2014 at 9:41 am #

    Thanks again Deb, for bearing with me…I do hear even the older farmers admit , albeit with a degree of regret in their voice, that “the market” is the sole arbiter of the farmer’s lot…but then again, some of those old farmers who grew and developed their irrigated lots (mostly overhead sprinklers in those days) when there was a “single desk” marketing system are now too weary to do the “tooling-up” to change and have handed (in some cases) a “lemon” over to the children…more of a millstone than a blessing..and with the added burden of not being able to sell or trade while the “old folks” are still of this earth!

    ( Some of those farms are unsuited to pivot irrigation, being on too steep a slope or other factors that are not conducive to modern “robotic tech’ application”.)

    But this thing of “the market”…sure, as I said, even the oldies chant the mantra and they too agree with the political principle of “opening up the markets”…after all, “you don’t want to be told by some “nanny – state” what, how and when to grow and who and where to market your crop when you can “shop around” for the best sale price “…sounds great…I’d go for it…..if “the market” operated on a level playing field…..truth is though…

    Where the older, smaller family farms, with limited land, labour and financial resources, has to use their own knowledge base, their own sweat and tears and then a great deal of animal cunning to shop for the best price for his product in a sometimes crowded or worse ; dumped products market…the large Agri’ – Corp MIS “farmers” are in continual conference with the big duopoly buyers or other bulk-buying middle-men, they “talk” ..both professionally and privately with the financial institutions who are more willing to finance the MIS “farmers” because of the spread of the risk and the “contract certainty” of the sale of produce…and they “talk” with their customers about negotiated pricing deals (something the smaller farmer is locked out of) …There is a separated “network” operating that is “out of the reach” of the smaller producer, yet influences the prices of wholesale produce…so the smaller farmer, being of limited size, limited product amount and range and limited finance to upgrade, is squeezed or shunted into a corner situation they may and indeed in some cases cannot operate in….and it seems to me that what we are heading toward (we may not have arrived there yet, but you can see it’s outline on the horizon) is a “totalitarian market”…. not communist, but rather : capitalist!

  39. Debbie June 19, 2014 at 11:13 am #

    If we’re purely discussing local markets and a total reliance on local markets. . .then I would agree that the duopoly is putting undue/unfair pressure on smaller, traditional producers/suppliers. . .especially for perishable produce.
    But you need to get your facts straight Jaycee.
    The vast bulk of farming in Australia is still run/owned by family farming enterprises.
    MIS and foreign corporations are certainly becoming part of the scenery and is filling a gap in our supply chain. . .especially when it involves value adding/ marketing/ packaging for emerging markets.
    Your communist/capitalist ‘totalitarian market’ theory however, is not backed up by any solid evidence that I am currently aware of.

  40. gavin June 19, 2014 at 11:33 am #

    Nev; re our SLR debates you really are a big clown in giving us another untested academic conclusion based on their own particular model for the Eastern Antarctic ice sheet response to current global warming.

    Not highlighted by Hockey Schtick “We find that the Lambert Glacier grounding line can retreat as much as 40 km if there is sufficient thinning of the ice shelf south of Clemence Massif, but the ocean MODEL does not provide sufficiently high melt rates in that region” Another mere model Nev.

    By doing some proper research of current literature on the topic of the stability of our East Antarctic ice sheets we can easily find some authors who are veterans from the SH glacial science and associated publications. Don’t be so lazy next time in coming up with yet another WUWT or similarly chosen biased linkage with “If you can’t explain the ‘pause’, you can’t explain the cause… “ another totally glib statement.

  41. Debbie June 19, 2014 at 12:14 pm #

    Also Jaycee,
    Perhaps you could research one of the markets I am involved in (rice) and another good example is Frontera & Murray Goulburn in the dairy market… and consider the why’s and wherefores in the directions they have moved?
    I do also think you might consider acknowledging the elephant in this room.
    To help you…here is a question re a well known incident in Aus agriculture.
    How was the live x market in Northern Australia completely shattered almost overnight?
    A lot of very good operators right across that supply chain were taken down in an incredibly
    short time frame and were unable to recover or recoup their losses. Those people are a good example of a loss of social capital in rural/regional Australia.

  42. Neville June 19, 2014 at 12:49 pm #

    Well here’s quote from your first link. The link I gave is valid and just backs up all the models study I’ve linked to before from the RS. Here’s your quote—–

    The occurrence of surging is relatively unpredictable, and our understanding of surging glaciers is limited. This is a significant impediment to our understanding of melting of high Arctic glaciers, and makes it difficult to predict future sea level rise.

  43. jaycee June 19, 2014 at 1:03 pm #

    Debbie…: ” How was the live x market in Northern Australia completely shattered almost overnight?”

    Now THAT subject IS interesting…and..not disrespecting the passing of Mr. Ray Evans….there was one argument that was lost on emotive, not factual grounds…sure, there are some disgusting practices involving certain individual types in the meat industry. I can sympathise with the producers, being a relatively long – arms – length from the overseas abattoirs that caused the most upset….

    BUT..that gross video footage was bound to come out…I wonder what those PR. folk in the Meat Corp’ thought would happen if and when it did….because, in a nation that spends more emotional capital on the rights of pets and animals than on human trafficking, it was certain to find political traction.

    I was slightly bemused albeit in a wry, morbid way that those suffering animals were always referred to as ; “Australian cattle”…or ; “our cattle”….as if THAT was a privileged position!

    I would think a more sympathetic voice than the “open – plains – drawl” of the pragmatic- by -experience cattle-man / woman could have been more swiftly brought in to assuage and calm those suburban fish-eaters!

    In my capacity as a tradesman, I have worked in abattoir shut-down maintenance here in Aust’…and the tales I heard about certain individual types that find (I would suspect even seek out ) cruel delight in causing dumb animals to suffer, would make ..not yours, Deb..nor Cate’s…but the general public’s hair curl!

    Some people should never be even let NEAR ANY animals !

  44. Debbie June 19, 2014 at 1:20 pm #

    But Jaycee?
    What actually was it . . .very specifically. . . that shattered that live x industry virtually overnight and took down good operators (you know, family business owners like farmers and transport operators) ?
    I have had experience in the meat processing industry as well Jaycee.
    Although certainly not perfect, Aus is one of the very best in the world re animal welfare.
    I have answered your questions.
    Perhaps you could consider answering mine?

  45. jaycee June 19, 2014 at 1:37 pm #

    Very specifically, Deb ?….it was a video taken by animal welfare sympathisers and shown on public television to a “shocked” audience…I have to admit to turning my head away at the more gruesome parts. But I don’t know why you would be so suprised…it was a political / animal rights tactic as perhaps a “payback” for the live export trade using strategic political players as a tactic to increase their export numbers…have you ever considered there may have been some financing made available to those video producers by certain frozen meat producers to claw – back the “home-kill and freeze” export market?

    There’s more than one way to “skin a cat” you know!

  46. jaycee June 19, 2014 at 1:40 pm #

    Also, a side issue…you seem to favour these ..:” although not perfect…”…and ; “while it can be improved”…etc. escape routes when things have gone pear-shaped….??…are you trying to avoid me?

  47. Debbie June 19, 2014 at 2:40 pm #

    But Jaycee?
    First post
    How could one animal activist video take down so many good people in one fell swoop?
    What was the specific behaviour that actually specifically took them down and caused a severe loss of community social capital from the resulting flow on effect?

    Second Post
    I’m not trying to avoid you Jaycee.
    If I was. . .I would not be commenting to you and answering your questions.
    I am actually a family farmer in the MIA, broad acre irrigator and. . .perhaps a little ironically at this point. . . via my own family and my own ‘off farm’ career choices, I have over 30 years of connections and experience in the meat processing industry. . .from paddock to plate 🙂

  48. jaycee June 19, 2014 at 2:55 pm #

    Deb…I am not trying to avoid ans’ your ques’…I have given a couple of , perhaps lame ans’, but now I am not sure what you are getting at!…I feel I am being “corralled” into just blurting something out…tell me..what is the ans to your query?

  49. Debbie June 19, 2014 at 3:18 pm #

    I’m not trying to corral you into anything.
    But several clues to that great big elephant in this room, I suggest, are in that AFI article that we had a misunderstanding over at a previous thread.
    The one that introduces with:
    “politics and markets can be a dangerous mix, as Thai rice farmers have just discovered.’
    and concludes with:
    “The ACT government has chosen politics and grandstanding over science with no actual impact on animal welfare”

    But . . .since you have now asked the same question.

    If I was asked the question that I asked you first up, my basic answer would be:

    “inappropriate, knee jerk, clueless, reactionary, urban based politics “

  50. jaycee June 19, 2014 at 5:50 pm #

    ” If I was asked the question that I asked you first up, my basic answer would be:

    “inappropriate, knee jerk, clueless, reactionary, urban based politics “

    Is THAT ALL !!…..geez!, Deb…I thought you were going to reveal some deep , dark industry conspiracy secret…what’s so amazing about the above response!?…that’s the same response we got to the carbon trading scheme…and the mining tax…both of which did little or nothing to the purses of any party..political or private!

    All politics is going to have the most effect where the population is heaviest…now there!!….I bloody well told you to go read that Machiavelli…dammit!…what’s the use of giving salubrious advice to readers in this blog when they are too flamin’ thick to take it?….that’s the last time, Deb…the last time that I’ll try to educate you….you don’t deserve my attention….I am so disappointed!

  51. Debbie June 19, 2014 at 6:11 pm #

    Sorry Jaycee,
    I don’t subscribe to Lewandowsky/Cook style ‘conspiracist ideation’ nonsense.
    That seems to be more your MO.
    Sorry that the elephant in the room just stomped on you…being an elephant….it is quite noticeable (usually)

  52. jaycee June 19, 2014 at 6:40 pm #

    Well, Deb…I can take a little bruising…but don’t make a habit of it please!…..

    But truly…those words you use above are just insults derived from a frustration with the outcome…an outcome predictable in a “twisted ethics” society as ours…surely a bit of fault could be shelved toward the Meat Corp’ s indolent attitude toward those slaughterhouses they were well paid to oversee?…could this be a failing of the “private industry overseer”?

    I expect rational analysis from “the mob” of public opinion would be to see Alan Jones lose his 3 star rating!

  53. Neville June 19, 2014 at 7:42 pm #

    Boy ya gotta laugh at these stupid loonies who predict our end is nigh.
    OZ’s chief scientist, prince Charles and some other fool all have different time lines for our end times. You’d think they’d at least get their delusional urgings on the same page.
    Barking mad fools the lot of them.

  54. jaycee June 19, 2014 at 8:42 pm #

    “Boy ya gotta laugh at these stupid loonies who predict our end is nigh.”

    “…Between the conception
    And the creation
    Between the emotion
    And the response
    Falls the Shadow
    Life is very long

    Between the desire
    And the spasm
    Between the potency
    And the existence
    Between the essence
    And the descent
    Falls the Shadow
    For Thine is the Kingdom

    For Thine is
    Life is
    For Thine is the

    This is the way the world ends
    This is the way the world ends
    This is the way the world ends
    Not with a bang but a whimper.”…..T.S.Eliot…The Hollow Men

  55. gavin June 19, 2014 at 9:39 pm #

    Nev; who pays you? Book sellers Inc!

    Working so tirelessly for all self-published anti climate science authors, you must be on their joint payroll.

  56. Debbie June 19, 2014 at 10:59 pm #

    Because I am a real fair dinkum family business owner/operator, I have learnt that the only way to judge social policy is by assessing the results or the outcomes against the stated goals or objectives.
    Despite all your hand waving and moralising about an ‘indolent attitude’. . .it was not the meat corps who paid for that inappropriate, knee jerk, clueless, urban based political reaction by the federal government. . .it was a sector of rural and regional Australia that paid. . .and good operators and family businesses were taken down by that inappropriate, reactive behaviour virtually overnight.
    That was the outcome.
    That’s before we even go anywhere near the Indonesian feedlotters. . . which were also family owned/operated enterprises. . . who lost their livelihoods virtually overnight.
    Unfortunately, very unfortunately, this isn’t the only example of that elephant in the room . . .it is however a well publicised example of one of the biggest frustrations that is plaguing rural and regional Australia.
    BTW. . .as well as not being an Andy Bolt fan . . .I am probably even less of an AJ fan. IMHO,they, along with many others, shamelessly pander to that ‘least worst’ mantra that I mentioned in an earlier thread.
    That behaviour is not helping us to implement sensible, socially responsible policy.. .particularly in NRM.
    I am also wondering what you think the difference is between me saying:
    “Although not perfect. . .”
    And you saying:
    “surely a bit of fault’

  57. gavin June 20, 2014 at 6:50 am #

    Deb; “BTW…”

    Does that mean you have some time for our ABC?

  58. jaycee June 20, 2014 at 7:58 am #

    “occupied / disputed”….

    Well…I wonder who else “we” can insult now so that our beef exports can cop another hit!?……

    Deb…out of curiosity…I hear you are not happy with the NRM. (board?)….what exactly is it? (I may be late coming in on the conversation…I haven’t been here for a while).

  59. jaycee June 20, 2014 at 8:01 am #

    ” I am also wondering what you think the difference is between me saying:
    “Although not perfect. . .”
    And you saying:
    “surely a bit of fault’
    ??????????? “…

    Y’know , Deb…If’n ever I’m over your way again, we’ll have to meet and “discuss our priorities” over a nice bowl of Tofu and rice….and perhaps a cuppa of “latte de-caff” in one of those Al – fresko cafes…

  60. Debbie June 20, 2014 at 8:22 am #

    I have very little time for any of our ‘moralising’ celebrity announcers.
    Tony Jones is probably my least favourite of all of them.
    The ABC is equally guilty of delivering ‘infotainment’ dressed up as news and shamelessly pandering to that ‘least worse’ mantra I have mentioned a few times here.
    In some ways the ABC is worse because it often panders to ‘pseudo intellectualism’ and pretends it has claimed some type of moral high ground re issues that are raised here such as CAGW, environmentalism & animal welfare.

  61. Debbie June 20, 2014 at 8:29 am #

    My apologies.
    I don’t particularly like acronyms yet find myself falling into the trap of using them sometimes.
    NRM is an acronym for Natural Resource Management.
    There is no NRM board .

  62. jaycee June 20, 2014 at 8:38 am #

    Debbie..I know what NRM. means, I was wondering what specifically you had against it…is it local policy on water management issues?…is it environmental policy on the Murrum’ River?….is it just too clunky in administration of policy in general?

  63. jaycee June 20, 2014 at 8:45 am #

    Well..I am also cheesed off with “their” ABC. …it’s gone all weak at the knees, what with apologising for this and that to all and sundry…I didn’t hear Uhlmann apologising for insulting our intelligence when he did that Alice Springs interview with Abbott with himself as the “drovers dog” sitting obediently licking Tony’s boots!…..Gawd!…it was disgusting!

    I too think Mark Scott should be given the big heave – ho.

  64. Debbie June 20, 2014 at 10:06 am #

    Because of what I do and where I live it is all of the above.
    My specific objection is that NRM across all three levels of govt has grown exponentially on the back of political pandering to urban environmentalism and has wasted a lot of time and money to achieve negative outcomes.
    This process has resulted in rural and regional Australia losing trust in and respect for policies based on ‘environmentalism’.
    The saddest part, IMHO, is that rural and regional Australians have been painted as hokey, redneck, uneducated ‘anti environmentalists’ and ‘climate deniers’.

  65. jaycee June 20, 2014 at 11:59 am #

    Yes, Debbie…I can see your point….unfortunately, because of the greater influx of people with tourism to regional areas….encouraged for their spending power….the “public eye” sweeps over the landscape and what they see and hear is sometimes not what they envisaged in their ideal of “Country Aust'”….I mean, in the nearby town where I live…it is a wreck!…there is no other way to describe it…a wreck..from whichever way you approach it…rubbish and ruin…but there is no need for it to be, but the local “old family” brigade has the area in “shutdown” mode because of their deep suspicion of the motives of any progressive environmental / civic ideas “imported” by “blow-ins” to the district….I have written on the problem in our community blog…read on:

    The Cabal of Complicity.

    It works like this..: Every regional community has its’ number of “old families”..”long-time residents”..”long-time employees”. Every single one of these people over the years become part of a strata of acknowledged hierarchical status, ie. ; they are allocated their place in that community. Some have a leadership place, some have a “drone” place, some have inherited respect while others are what you would call “floaters” ; in and out of favour at some time or other…The perfect example of the Peter Principle..then there are the “blow-ins”.
    All of these “old” regional communities seem to thrive on a social diet of rumour, envy and schadenfreude. There are short and long-term feuds, niggling, petty hates and overall the cautious, suspicious envy of what the neighbour may have that you have not! The level that these petty trysts achieve and are operating on can be seen by the state of beauty or disrepair of the township. Those in a greater state of turmoil show little regard for their environment, being more concerned with their feuds than their civic obligations.
    BUT!..but, strangely, all these communities, no matter how divided within , will unite against what is perceived as a common outside threat. This unity of concentration is called ;The Cabal of Complicity.
    There are, of course, the age-old bigotries against race, religion and politics…Then there are the new hatreds..: Environmentalists seem to fill the void for a common enemy, as do refugees, strangely as most who came to this country were refugees of one kind or another and there is that lovely old standby distrust..: The Indigenous Peoples.
    Curiously though, there is another “player” that comes into the picture about now, he is a “blow-in”, a newcomer, but he is saying all the right phrases that appeal to the local prejudices…he pushes all the right approval buttons. This toady targets the most influential to his station and needs. With astute flattery and sycophantic conversation, not to mention the strategic “on me” beer, he soon becomes accepted into the cabal as a “friend of the community”, he “legitimises” local opinion as being “in-tune” with the broader population and is often privy to a host of secrets, while juggling conspiracies and confederacies. He is a strange animal and in most cases a reject of the more cosmopolitan world of city-life.
    To enter such communities and hold views in conflict with the status quo (listed above) is to court social pariahism. For although you may be of the opinion that you have just had a “heated discussion” with only one member of the community…. because such a member “went to school with…”, “grew up with…”, “played football with…”, “drank with…”, “did a season shearing with…”, “works with…”, or just plain “is related to…” , it won’t be long, regardless if the culprit is despised, loved, respected, spurned by nearly every other single individual in the entire cabal…..YOU will “have the problem”. Because the one grain, perhaps the only grain of carved-in-stone knowledge in such communities is that its very weakness is its’ strength, so each is complicit in backing-up, right or wrong, with silent dismissal or willful disdain, its’ “in-house” member. It is the strength of denial, it is the unifying fear of “divided they fall”, for each individual, lacking a worldly confidence, has no solid footing, but is fixed in the matrix of all….so take on one, you take on all!
    It is The Cabal of Complicity.

    Tell me if I am that far wrong…

  66. Tim Channon June 20, 2014 at 12:50 pm #

    Hardly anyone has commented on the revamp.

    Looks nice and clean, attractive.

    Frost quote? Oh yes, ignore the path, make new ones and yet so many do the same over and over achieving the same result. Mind you, there might be a reason, oops, a dragon.

  67. Larry Fields June 20, 2014 at 1:02 pm #

    I like the new format. Here’s a variation on the Robert Frost meme, from American baseball legend, Yogi Berra:

    “If you come to a fork in the road, take it.”

  68. spangled drongo June 20, 2014 at 2:08 pm #

    Yes, Nev, it’s so stupid it stings but our alarmist Paulehrlicheans here just wallow in it.

    But one thing about wearing sandwich boards is they may save you in the event of sudden SLR.

    Checked SLR lately, have you gav?

  69. spangled drongo June 20, 2014 at 2:16 pm #

    Neville, here are a few more of similar ilkness:

  70. spangled drongo June 20, 2014 at 2:21 pm #

    Larry, is claiming your recent cold winter was due to CAGW like taking that fork?

  71. Debbie June 20, 2014 at 2:29 pm #

    Judging only by your comments and accepting that you do and are what you say you do and you are. . .my comment is that perhaps you might need to consider moving?

    I might be wrong of course. . .but the impression I am getting is that you don’t care much for the community you live in. . .and see yourself as some type of martyr or victim to a ‘conspiracist ideation’ of an evil, anti progressive ‘status quo’ that operates below the radar in your community because of things like:

    “the local “old family” brigade has the area in “shutdown” mode because of their deep suspicion of the motives of any progressive environmental / civic ideas “imported” by “blow-ins” to the district”

    You also seem to imply at times that you have concluded that ‘status quo’ has something to do with the National Party and if all those ‘old farmers’ would just change their vote. . . then we could all live happily ever after in some type of progressive world?

    But as far as your ‘Cabal of Complicity’ theory re country communities goes. . .have a little think about the recent revelations that have come to light re the Health Services Union (as one example)
    IMHO . . . that’s an absolute classic example of a ‘cabal of complicity’ with much greater consequences than anything you would likely find in a small regional community.

    Of course the term ‘cabal of complicity’ is not a new one and is most often used by those who rail against western style democracies. . .but it is also sometimes used in a religious context.
    I remember reading a piece by some person in America with a Czech sounding surname (? I think?) along the same lines but it was about the American banking cabal.
    If I have some time later I will see if I can track it down.

    So Jaycee. . .
    While I don’t at all disagree that a rural community’s greatest strengths can sometimes also be its greatest weakness I do continue to question the basis of your focus.

    I can only speak from my own experience, which has absolutely zip to do with the way I vote or they vote. . .but some of the most talented and progressive and inclusive and capable people I have ever met anywhere. . .are what I guess you would loosely term ‘old farmers’.
    Nine times out of ten if I need to solve a problem or ask for some some advice. . .they are the best bet. . . and way ahead of those people who spend a lot of time sneering at, demonising and being moralising, pseudo intellectual snobs about rural/regional Australian communities.

  72. spangled drongo June 20, 2014 at 2:54 pm #

    And Larry, would Yogi’s fork include the paradox of record Antarctic sea ice also being a sure sign of that same CAGW?

    Yogi was ahead of his time…

  73. sp June 20, 2014 at 2:54 pm #

    Debbie – you have more patience than me!!!

  74. jaycee June 20, 2014 at 4:13 pm #

    Debbie….a purely objective analysis…you’re not seeing the forest for the trees…and you don’t know the history of this district as I do….so you’re shooting blind!…………..missed!
    I AM…the community I live in !…because I am confident of who I am and what I can achieve. I do not need “propping up” with ‘group opinion”…I am completely capable within myself. I wish I could say the same of this community…there have been 19 suicides in this district in the last three years….spread amongst a wide demographic…you see, Debbie…there is a strange lack of “identity” with this district…I mean the old families (in the main) seem to have no love of the land, the environment , nor the indigenous history…nor that je ne sais quoi!..that “certain something” that holds one to a love of place…after all, you can’t be so brutal to the native flora and fauna on your land and still claim affection to such..I put it down to a lack of philosophy within the individual…after all, it is not enough to just “own the property” have to let the land “own” you…but you don’t “get that” do you?..As one long time resident farmer exclaimed to me : “we’re not dirt farmers anymore…we’re chemical farmers”!

    And anyway…”community” for only one group of people is not a right of possession…no-one “owns” community…it just is!

  75. jaycee June 20, 2014 at 4:16 pm #

    And sp. ..Debbie and myself are having an “intense” unless you can contribute to the “open thread”…no-one’s rattled your cage, so go back to pulling wings off flies or whatever you do for intellectual amusement!

  76. Debbie June 20, 2014 at 5:00 pm #


    Good for you for being:

    “confident of who I am and what I can achieve. I do not need “propping up” with ‘group opinion”

    I don’t know why you thought it was necessary to say that about yourself. . .it doesn’t really mean anything related to this discussion particularly. . .but good for you anyway.

    But what’s this about?

    “I mean the old families (in the main) seem to have no love of the land, the environment , nor the indigenous history…nor that je ne sais quoi!..that “certain something” that holds one to a love of place…after all, you can’t be so brutal to the native flora and fauna on your land and still claim affection to such..I put it down to a lack of philosophy within the individual…after all, it is not enough to just “own the property” have to let the land “own” you…but you don’t “get that” do you?.”

    On what basis are you claiming that family farmers are being :
    ” so brutal to the native flora and fauna on your land and still claim affection to such.”?
    What has happened to your claimed sympathy for family farmers over the MIS schemes etc . . .or even your idea for decentralised farmers’ markets (which I assume would have to have the support of local family farmers before it could even have a chance of getting of the ground) ?????
    And what is the link between these comments of yours and the 19 suicides in your district?
    Did they leave a suicide note that explained that they were killing themselves because they had been so brutal to the native flora and fauna and that ” (in the main) seem to have no love of the land, the environment , nor the indigenous history” ?

  77. jaycee June 20, 2014 at 5:20 pm #

    I can see I am “down to the bedrock” with our little soiree’, Debbie…i’ll let you get on with your work….thanks for the conversation.

  78. Albie Manton in Darwin June 20, 2014 at 5:24 pm #

    But does any argument for anti global warming give any one of us an open license to keep consuming at the current rates?

  79. Larry Fields June 20, 2014 at 5:26 pm #

    Hi Spangled,
    The answer to both of your questions is yes, depending on one’s belief system. I think that hard-core Climate Confirmation Bias should be listed in the next DSM.

    For the class of True Believers in question, no amount of real world data can falsify their little secular religion — provided that the data do not have a negative impact on their bottom lines.

    If there’s a statistically significant global cooling trend by the year 2020, that will be dramatic proof of Global Warming. Kevin Trenberth and Susan Solomon are right. The ‘missing heat’ is hiding out at the bottom of the oceans, where we cannot measure it. When we let our guards down, it will sneak out and bite us in the arse. Moreover freezing to death (England) in the name of Gaia is for poor people, not for the self-appointed elite, who in their infinite wisdom, know what’s best for The Planet, and for everyone else. /sarc

    But before they can even begin the healing process, CCB addicts really need to hit bottom. To hasten the individual epiphanies, we should cut off all goobermint funding for GHG-based computer modeling of climate change, and for mitigation of the non-problem. A small part of the money we save could subsidize antidepressant meds for unemployed computer jockeys, who used to work in the climate change field.

  80. gavin June 20, 2014 at 5:40 pm #

    Nev & SD note this, a simple research sample: Google “rising sea level June 2014” and ignoring BlogSpot & word press = home grown opinions Inc. by an experienced report maker for a variety of clients including Government, Industry & Scientific Research institutions.

    Google “falling sea level june 2014” and ignoring Jo Nova, WUWT etc but nothing much to choose from otherwise.

  81. spangled drongo June 20, 2014 at 6:10 pm #

    Gav, the simplest and best research is to pay lifelong attention:

  82. Debbie June 20, 2014 at 7:24 pm #

    🙂 🙂
    My husband says the same thing.
    I don’t think I’m particularly patient but rather focused on exposing the ‘holier than thou’ attitude of the political ‘environmentalist’. . .particularly the ones who claim they understand and care about agricultural communities.
    They don’t.

  83. gavin June 20, 2014 at 9:58 pm #

    SD; you have to do better than link to wordpress and sea level not rising URL’s i.e. failed!

  84. Neville June 20, 2014 at 11:37 pm #

    Give up Gav, there heaps of recent PR studies showing a slowing of SLR or no change. That includes Church, White 2014 etc showing 1.8mm a year or about 7 inches by 2114,
    Or the same as the last 100 years, therefore no change at all.
    And the world glacier study shows a slowing of retreat trend since 1950.
    What more do you want? And Greenland warmed at a faster rate in the early 20th century as well. That’s the Jones, Briffa, Vinther study, so please try and keep up.

  85. Neville June 21, 2014 at 12:04 am #

    Cold nights are getting colder in the Northern hemisphere. Opposite to AGW theory AGAIN.

  86. gavin June 21, 2014 at 6:57 am #

    Nev; you have to do better than link to BlogSpot and quote “world glacier study shows a slowing of retreat trend 2014” sites i.e. failed! A quick rhetoric check finds Anthony Watts and CO2 Science again pulling the strings of blog debate re slowing, cooling or no change in trends, see here-

    Jevrejeva, S., Moore, J.C., Grinsted, A., Matthews, A.P. and Spada, G. 2014. Trends and acceleration in global and regional sea levels since 1807. Global and Planetary Change 113: 11-22.

    CO2 Science-Quoting the five researchers, “the new reconstruction suggests a linear trend of 1.9 ± 0.3 mm/yr during the 20th century” and “1.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr for the period 1970-2008.”

    “Trends and acceleration in global and regional sea levels since 1807”


    We use 1277 tide gauge records since 1807 to provide an improved global sea level reconstruction and analyse the evolution of sea level trend and acceleration. In particular we use new data from the polar regions and remote islands to improve data coverage and extend the reconstruction to 2009. There is a good agreement between the rate of sea level rise (3.2 ± 0.4 mm•yr− 1) calculated from satellite altimetry and the rate of 3.1 ± 0.6 mm•yr− 1 from tide gauge based reconstruction for the overlapping time period (1993–2009). The new reconstruction suggests a linear trend of 1.9 ± 0.3 mm•yr− 1 during the 20th century, with 1.8 ± 0.5 mm•yr− 1 since 1970. Regional linear trends for 14 ocean basins since 1970 show the fastest sea level rise for the Antarctica (4.1 ± 0.8 mm•yr− 1) and Arctic (3.6 ± 0.3 mm•yr− 1). Choice of GIA correction is critical in the trends for the local and regional sea levels, introducing up to 8 mm•yr− 1 uncertainties for individual tide gauge records, up to 2 mm•yr− 1 for regional curves and up to 0.3–0.6 mm•yr− 1 in global sea level reconstruction. We calculate an acceleration of 0.02 ± 0.01 mm•yr− 2 in global sea level (1807–2009). In comparison the steric component of sea level shows an acceleration of 0.006 mm•yr− 2 and mass loss of glaciers accelerates at 0.003 mm•yr− 2 over 200 year long time series.

  87. gavin June 21, 2014 at 7:11 am #


    Latest peer reviewed research by a group including Phil Jones and Keith Briffa (Vinther et al 2010) is suggesting that the current warm period IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED.

    The authors worked with 20 ice core records from 14 different sites, all of them stretching back in time at least 200 years, as well as surface air temperature data from 13 sites along the southern and western coasts of Greenland, as well as similar temperature data sets from Iceland.

    Using O18 records, the authors developed temperature proxies that extend 1400 years back in time.

    The authors state “temperatures during the warmest intervals of the Medieval Warm Period, some 900 to 1300 years ago, were as warm as or slightly warmer than present day Greenland temperatures.

    Conclusion? According to Jones and Briffa, the stout defenders of the infamous Mann Hockeystick, present day temperatures ARE NOT YET WARM ENOUGH TO CONFER “UNPRECEDENTED” STATUS on current Greenland temperatures. halleluja

    Thanks to CO2 Science”

    Nev; you have been scraping the bottom of the c pit!

  88. spangled drongo June 21, 2014 at 7:56 am #

    SD; you have to do better than link to wordpress.

    Do you really deny that link is spot-on accurate?

    And you just don’t understand that many tide gauges for so many reasons are just not accurate.

    Satellite measurement is a sorry joke because of inaccurate reference frame.

    But when Fort Denison on our doorstep shows the same unchanged SLs that I have been observing over my lifetime and any aware person can also see as much then to claim any abnormality is self delusion.

    Even the FD tide gauge with its smoothed rise of 2.5 inches per century shows the same SLs of 60 years ago:

  89. spangled drongo June 21, 2014 at 8:07 am #

    But there’s a chance for us yet:

  90. gavin June 21, 2014 at 8:40 am #

    SD; liquid level instruments and their accuracy were part of my daily routines however you may find the big picture by NOAA far more intresting, particularly NH countries popping out with dare I say, ice loss!

  91. Neville June 21, 2014 at 8:42 am #

    Spangled I think poor Gav really thinks he’s proving something by his silly antics,
    Everything I’ve linked to comes from very recent PR studies and shows that there is zip evidence to show any consistent SLR that is outside the norms of 20th century rise.

    BTW even the strongest alarmist rags are now agreeing there has been a pause in global warming. And they even quote the same sources that Watts and Bolt etc have quoted for years.

  92. Neville June 21, 2014 at 8:57 am #

    There are about 25+ SL studies here


    Sea Level:

    Sea-Level Changes and Earth’s Rate of Rotation
    (Journal of Coastal Research, Volume 8, Number 4, pp. 966-971, 1992)
    – Nils-Axel Morner

    Sea Level and Climate—The Decadal-to-Century Signals
    (Journal of Coastal Research, Issue 17, pp. 261-268, 1995)
    – Nils-Axel Morner

    New approaches raise questions about future sea level change
    (Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Volume 77, Number 40, pp. 385, 1996)
    – M. Baltuck et al.

    Estimating future sea level changes from past records (PDF)
    (Global and Planetary Change, Volume 40, Issues 1-2, pp. 49-54, January 2004)
    – Nils-Axel Morner

    * Comment on comment by Nerem et al. (2007) on “Estimating future sea level changes from past records” by Nils-Axel Mörner (2004)
    (Global and Planetary Change, Volume 62, Issues 3-4, pp. 219-220, June 2008)
    – Nils-Axel Morner

    New perspectives for the future of the Maldives (PDF)
    (Global and Planetary Change, Volume 40, Issue 1-2, pp. 177-182, January 2004)
    – Nils-Axel Morner, Michael Tooley, Goran Possnert

    * Reply to the comment of P.S. Kench et al. on “New perspectives for the future of the Maldives” by N.A. Morner et al.
    (Global and Planetary Change, Volume 47, Issue 1, pp. 70-71, February 2005)
    – Nils-Axel Morner, Michael Tooley

    The Maldives project: a future free from sea-level flooding
    (Contemporary South Asia, Volume 13, Number 2, pp. 149-155, June 2004)
    – Nils-Axel Morner

    Snowfall-Driven Growth in East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigates Recent Sea-Level Rise
    (Science, Volume 308, Number 5730, pp. 1898-1901, June 2005)
    – Curt H. Davis et al.

    Low sea level rise projections from mountain glaciers and icecaps under global warming
    (Nature, Volume 439, Number 7074, pp. 311-313, November 2005)
    – Sarah C. B. Raper, Roger J. Braithwaite

    On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century
    (Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2007)
    – S. J. Holgate

    Geocentric sea-level trend estimates from GPS analyses at relevant tide gauges world-wide
    (Global and Planetary Change, Volume 57, Issues 3-4, pp. 396-406, June 2007)
    – G. Woppelmann et al.

    Sea Level Changes and Tsunamis, Environmental Stress and Migration Overseas: The Case of the Maldives and Sri Lanka
    (Internationales Asienforum, Volume 38, Number 3-4, pp. 353–374, November 2007)
    – Nils-Axel Morner

    Trends in UK mean sea level revisited
    (Geophysical Journal International, Volume 176, Issue 1, pp. 19–30, January 2009)
    – P. L. Woodworth et al.

    New Perspective on Global Warming & Sea Level Rise: Modest Future Rise with Reduced Threat (PDF)
    (Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Number 7, pp. 1067-1074, November 2009)
    – Madhav L. Khandekar

    Sea Level Changes in Bangladesh New Observational Facts
    (Energy & Environment, Volume 21, Number 3, pp. 235-250, July 2010)
    – Nils-Axel Morner

    Some problems in the reconstruction of mean sea level and its changes with time
    (Quaternary International, Volume 221, Issues 1-2, pp. 3-8, July 2010)
    – Nils-Axel Morner

    Is There Evidence Yet of Acceleration in Mean Sea Level Rise around Mainland Australia?
    (Journal of Coastal Research, Volume 27, Issue 2, pp. 368-377, March 2011)
    – P. J. Watson

    Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses (PDF)
    (Journal of Coastal Research, Volume 27, Issue 3, pp. 409–417, May, 2011)
    – J. R. Houston, R. G. Dean

    * Reply to: Rahmstorf, S. and Vermeer, M., 2011. Discussion of: Houston, J.R. and Dean, R.G., 2011. Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses. Journal of Coastal Research, 27(3), 409–417 (PDF)
    (Journal of Coastal Research, Volume 27, Issue 4, pp. 788–790, July 2011)
    – J. R. Houston, R. G. Dean

    Tropical Pacific spatial trend patterns in observed sea level: internal variability and/or anthropogenic signature?
    (Climate of the Past Discussions, Volume 8, Issue 1, pp. 349-389, January 2012)
    – B. Meyssignac et al.

    Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels?
    (Coastal Engineering, Volume 64, pp. 161-167, June 2012)
    – Alberto Boretti

    The Inconvenient Truth: Ocean Level Not Rising in Australia
    (Energy & Environment, Volume 23, Number 5, pp. 801-818, July 2012)
    – Alberto Boretti, Thomas Watson

    Is there a 60-year oscillation in global mean sea level?
    (Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 39, Issue 18, September 2012)
    – Don P. Chambers et al.

    Present-To-Future Sea Level Changes: The Australian Case (PDF)
    (Environmental Science: An Indian Journal, Volume 8, Issue 2, pp. 43-51, 2013)
    – Nils-Axel Morner, Albert Parker

    Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes (PDF)
    (Climate Dynamics, April 2013)
    – Nicola Scafetta

    Sea Level Changes Past Records and Future Expectations
    (Energy & Environment, Volume 24, Number 3-4, pp. 509-536, June 2013)
    – Nils-Axel Morner

  93. Neville June 21, 2014 at 9:00 am #

    Sorry try this link for the active SL studies here.

  94. Neville June 21, 2014 at 10:10 am #

    This latest study from the European Institute of climate and energy proves that wind power can never become baseload power.

    It always needs to be backed up by coal or gas etc and this is more costly and produces even more co2 emissions. Here’s their conclusions——

    1 Because of the fundamental principles of mathematical statistics the summary feed-in from wind turbines in the area of ​​Germany is in principle not baseload. The development of wind power in our country can not and will not change anything essential.

    2 The power peaks will increase due to the expansion of wind power further and further exacerbate the known problems of overproduction of non-recyclable stream of evils such as the so-called negative prices in the stock market.
    3 There are no large technically available memory efficient technology for the use of the rising power peaks, so that the power supply without power plants in the background can not be operated. It does not matter whether they are operated with gas, lignite or hard coal. The exit from the nuclear power plants will force an expansion of conventional power plants. The costs associated with electricity production and carbon dioxide emissions will increase and not decrease.

    Just what the sceptics have been telling the extremists for years. Once again simple maths, common sense, logic and reason. Just ask Germany and many EU countries now madly building brown coal fired stns to restore their energy grids.

  95. jennifer June 21, 2014 at 10:22 am #

    In terms of sea level change around the Australian coastline, some of the very useful papers include…

    Sloss et al. In Journal of Coastal Research (vol 21, pages 943-959). Quote from abstract… A late Holocene regression (1-2 m) of sea level between 3200-2500 years ago (stage 4) further restricted oceanic circulation and increased the rate of fluvial bay-head delta progradation.

    Belperio et al. In Sedimentary Geology (vol 150, pages 153-169). Quote from abstract… The data indicate a very rapid sea-level rise in the early Holocene, at about 16 mm/year, reaching present levels at 6400 years BP. This was followed by regionally variable regression and emergence of the land of 1–3 m, a process that continues to the present.

  96. jennifer June 21, 2014 at 10:23 am #

    Neville, I should add.. the Sloss paper refers to Lake Illawarra and NSW coastline, while Belperio has studied coastline in South Australia.

  97. Neville June 21, 2014 at 10:35 am #

    Obama’s science????? advisor is further exposed by his silly polar vortex garbage.

  98. Neville June 21, 2014 at 10:52 am #

    Thanks Jennifer.

  99. spangled drongo June 21, 2014 at 11:45 am #

    Thanks, Neville and Jen.

    Reading that pretty much gives a summary of:

    “We revisit available tide gauge data along the coasts of Australia, and we are able to demonstrate that the rate may vary between 0.1 and 1.5 mm/year, and that there is an absence of acceleration over the last decades.”

    Although from what I see, there is not only an absence of ACceleration awa DEceleration in SLR, there is nothing happening at all, possibly a fall.

    Mind you, I have to declare I am looking at it as someone involved with sea-front property for the last 68 years so while I may be paying attention I probably also have a conflict of interest ☺.

  100. spangled drongo June 21, 2014 at 11:58 am #

    This is more like it. After 1950 the earth’s rotation sped up because SLs fell:


    “The history and development of our understanding of sea level changes is reviewed. Sea level research is multi-facetted and calls for integrated studies of a large number of parameters. Well established records indicate a post-LIA (1850-1950) sea level rise of 11 cm. During the same period of time, the Earth’s rate of rotation experienced a slowing down (deceleration) equivalent to a sea level rise of about 10 cm. Sea level changes during the last 40-50 years are subjected to major controversies. The methodology applied and the views claimed by the IPCC are challenged. For the last 40-50 years strong observational facts indicate virtually stable sea level conditions. The Earth’s rate of rotation records a mean acceleration from 1972 to 2012, contradicting all claims of a rapid global sea level rise, and instead suggests stable, to slightly falling, sea levels. Best estimates for future sea level changes up to the year 2100 are in the range of +5 cm ±15 cm”

  101. Alan B. Goulding June 21, 2014 at 12:31 pm #

    When it comes to energy alternatives, the best alternatives will walk out the door.
    For mine these include Aussie invented smell free, relatively compact, methane producing digesters.
    Methane which after scrubbing, can run diesel generators, or better yet, Aussie invented, super silent, solid state ceramic fuel cells.
    The ceramic fuel cell with the best energy coefficient in the world,( 80%) has got to be one of those that walk out the door.
    And for the greenies, the exhaust product of gas powered ceramic fuel cells, is mostly water vapor.
    As a bonus, they also provide endless free hot water.
    Most families produce enough waste to completely power their homes etc, 24.7!
    The inclusion/substitution of a ceramic fuel cell, provides a 50% salable surplus, or power for domestic water supply, pumps etc.
    I mean, and given the ever burgeoning cost of diesel, seriously, just how many irrigation projects are still viable?
    Gravity fed examples perhaps?
    We Aussies are also blessed with significant thorium deposits, enough some claim, to power the world for 700 years!
    And thorium power is cheaper than coal! Reason?
    The power plants or reactors are relatively small, maxing out at around 50 MW?
    Meaning they can be mass produced and trucked on site as wide loads, to be powering something, a small town, military base, what have you ,within days!
    And given the ease with which they can be produced,{the Chinese are reportedly building one a week,] they can be an off grid alternative, built right beside any industrial estate.
    This feature, will halve current comparative reticulation costs by a further 50%!
    Safety issues are catered for, by the simple expedience of burying the reactor module, more than 30-100 metres?,
    This is fifties technology, was only ever abandoned, because there was no weapons spin off.
    An oxide reactor consumes only around 5% of it fuel, with the rest becoming highly toxic waste.
    Conversely, the liquid thorium process, consumes as much as 95% of its fuel, with only about 5% becoming waste. Which is far less toxic and eminently suitable as long life space batteries. This also contributes to coal fired power, price beating economy!
    Coal is still comparatively expense, given the sheer tonnages, mining and transport costs.
    Coal fired examples consume hundreds thousands of tons PA.
    Comparative thorium power, might be very hard pressed, to consume a thousand tons of fuel, during an operative lifetime?
    The greens will predictably react by telling you thorium reactors still need to be kick started with a nuclear reaction, or that the process is very hot!
    Implying in these statements, that this is dangerous process.
    We could probably make similar claims for light metals smelting, hydrocarbon cracking, high heat toxic waste disposal.
    Coal fired power stations, give off other things besides carbon; things like lead, mercury, carcinogenic cadmium, to name just a few reported in several NSW newspapers?
    Dozens of other relatively common industrial processes, come with their own raft of dangerous problems!
    I mean, we used to scour our own wool, tan our own leather!
    One could postulate, we might still have a flourishing export oriented car industry, if we produced the world’s cheapest industrial energy. Instead, our so-called leaders, either sit on the hands or outsource their former core responsibilities!
    Hydro power is more expensive than local thorium power, given it still needs hundreds of miles of transmission wires, which still need to be maintained!
    Thorium power plants, are inherently safe enough,[ as buried reactors,] to be located very adjacent to almost any industrial estate, or small country town etc, virtually eliminating most transmission costs, which is currently, half the total cost!
    Those with a vested interest in intermittent wind, wave or solar power, will argue most vociferously for their vested interests.
    But never from an genuinely competitive economic perspective, given that is currently impossible!
    Alan B.

  102. Debbie June 21, 2014 at 2:34 pm #

    I’m sure our resident misanthropists/environmentalists will love this one?

    Antarctica is regarded as one of the planet’s last true wilderness areas, untouched by agriculture, mining or urban development, and is protected as a natural reserve.
    Martin Riddle, an environmental scientist with the Australian Antarctic Division, said a rapidly growing human presence is threatening its unique biodiversity.”

    What about that recent UNSW Prof Turney expedition that got frozen in while studying the effects of CC?
    A fair bit of damage must have been wreaked on the area in order to rescue them ? 🙂

    Gotta agree with you Alan B.
    The possibilities and opportunities are probably limitless.
    It does appear that anything that may be genuinely competitive and cost effective doesn’t get a look in.
    And your point about the fact that gravity has been squandered in irrigated agriculture is also a cracker.
    There are so many examples of why it’s not a good idea to squander gravity in favour of ‘big boy’s toys’ and in the name of ‘savings’ where I live and work.
    Water and gravity have always been best mates 🙂

  103. spangled drongo June 21, 2014 at 3:52 pm #

    What, Alan, you don’t value solar thermal power plants like Windorah’s where Peter and Anna spent $100k per house so they could have off-grid power to keep their beer cool in the middle of the day?

    [We don’t mention that they still use their old diesel generator at a similar 100,000 litres pa and they haven’t got any clean water out there to wash the dust off their solar mirrors]

  104. Larry Fields June 21, 2014 at 3:59 pm #

    Albie Manton in Darwin June 20, 2014 at 5:24 pm #
    “But does any argument for anti global warming give any one of us an open license to keep consuming at the current rates?”

    That’s a fair question, and a Big Picture question. First, Big Government tends to attract rascals, who don’t really have our best interests at heart, including out-and-out psychopaths, like Barry O’Bummer. I for one do not trust them to tell me what I should forego, for the sake of future generations, and especially for the nebulous goal of ‘saving the planet’.

    Second, we do not have enough information to set comprehensive policies of ‘rational’ impoverishment for the long-term “Greater Good”. For example, there’s Politically Incorrect evidence that petroleum is a semi-renewable resource, and that it’s not a ‘fossil fuel’ after all. Why not?

    For openers, adamantane derivatives — aka diamondoids — are ubiquitous in petroleum, and are a ‘fly in the ointment’ of the fossil fuel hypothesis. It’s not possible for diamondoids to form under the limited heat and pressure of that hypothesis. And the pathetic attempts to rescue the fossil fuel hypothesis would have William of Occam turning over in his grave. Assuming that the abiotic oil theory is correct, what are the long-term, sustainable rates of petroleum regeneration and extraction? We do not know.

    Anyway, some shameless self-promotion is in order. I’ve written a long, boring Big Picture type of article at HubPages. It covers a good part of the scientific territory, and debunks most of the Paul Ehrlich malarkey about population, but it is not able to answer some of the tougher questions. Please make some popcorn before you start reading this.

    Larry’s Take on the Population Disinformation Bomb

  105. gavin June 21, 2014 at 4:56 pm #

    Nev; if we take Nils-Axel Morner out of your long list above there in little left.

    On the coastal SL theme, I have always claimed that we need to look behind the frontal dune system caused by a decline in SL at the end of the last Ice Age That old coast line tells us a lot about the next max SL. Let’s find all the shallow lakes, lagoons and salt marshes. The longer estuaries also have a role to play in the short term with global warming accelerating.


    Kuang, C.; Chen, W.; Gu, J.; Zhu, D.Z.; He, L., and Huang, H., 2014. Numerical assessment of the impacts of potential future sea‐level rise on hydrodynamics of the Yangtze River Estuary, China.

    Recent research suggests that sea levels are rising even faster than projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under a sea level rise (SLR) scenario, estuarine and coastal areas would be affected first. In this paper, the effects on the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) by potential future SLR are studied using a hydrodynamic (MIKE21) model. The model is calibrated with field data. Scenarios of 0.5, 1, and 2 m SLR in the flood season are simulated with the calibrated model. The predicted results show that under SLR (1) the tidal level of the YRE increases and its increase rate decreases gradually upstream along the channel; (2) the tidal wave propagates at a faster speed upstream, which leads to the advancement of a tidal limit and tidal current limit to the upstream; (3) the increases in flood and ebb velocities occur around the Nanhui Tidal Flat, the Hengsha Eastern Shoal, the Jiuduansha Shoal, the upper reach of the North Branch, the North

    Channel, the South Channel, the South Branch, and the “South Branch above”; the ebb velocity decreases in the North Passage and the South Passage; and the flood and ebb velocity in shoals have the highest increasing rate; and (4) the ebb discharge of the North Branch has the highest increasing rate, with the ebb flow split ratio increasing up to almost 5% under the 2 m SLR scenario. Hence, SLR will reduce the protective capacity of embankments and may aggravate erosion in shoals, which is not good for maintenance of the Deepwater Navigation Channel and formation of potential land resources in the YRE.

    A detailed Holocene sedimentological and geomorphological history of the sedimentary infill of Lake
    Conjola, a barrier estuary on the southeast coast of Australia, is presented. Results show that a remnant
    Last Interglacial barrier system is preserved in the mouth of a narrow incised valley. During the early
    stage of Holocene sedimentary infill, a laterally extensive transgressive sand facies was deposited as
    rising post-glacial sea-level breached remnants of the Last Interglacial barrier ca. 7500 calBP. From 7500
    to 4000 calBP sediment continued to accumulate within the mouth of the incised valley, forming an
    extensive flood-tide delta within the drowned river estuary. Marine influences were restricted by further
    sediment accumulation at the mouth of the estuary, leading to the development of mid-Holocene barrier
    and back-barrier depositional environments. This research adds detail to stratigraphic models of the
    sedimentary infill and geomorphological evolution of barrier estuaries formed in narrow incised valley
    systems on the southeast coast of Australia, and provides a global model for estuarine deposition in
    regions that have been tectonically stable over the late Quaternary.

    2009 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved

  106. Debbie June 21, 2014 at 5:15 pm #

    🙂 🙂
    ‘Rational impoverishment for the long term greater good’
    🙂 🙂

  107. gavin June 21, 2014 at 5:56 pm #

    Alan; “We could probably make similar claims for light metals smelting, hydrocarbon cracking, high heat toxic waste disposal”.

    I did think about highlighting the difference in vessel pressures re above examples, but I have better things to do.

    For a very recent round up on energy and a good read see these articles

  108. spangled drongo June 21, 2014 at 7:49 pm #

    Gav, how on earth do models and proxies of streams and estuaries give you any idea of current or future SLR due to ACO2?

    How does all that verbiage tell you whether SLR is accelerating, constant, decelerating or not happening?

    “On the coastal SL theme, I have always claimed that we need to look behind the frontal dune system caused by a decline in SL at the end of the last Ice Age”


    SLs rose ~ 120m at the end of the last ice age and current frontal dunes and estuaries were so far from the sea they didn’t exist.

  109. gavin June 22, 2014 at 7:17 am #

    “A new NASA study shows Earth’s climate likely will continue to warm during this century on track with previous estimates, despite the recent slowdown in the rate of global warming.

    This research hinges on a new and more detailed calculation of the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to the factors that cause it to change, such as greenhouse gas emissions. Drew Shindell, a climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, found Earth is likely to experience roughly 20 percent more warming than estimates that were largely based on surface temperature observations during the past 150 years.

    Shindell’s paper on this research was published March 9 in the journal Nature Climate Change.”

    100+ papers SD ; “NASA has named Gavin A. Schmidt to head the agency’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, a leading Earth climate research laboratory”

  110. spangled drongo June 22, 2014 at 7:37 am #

    SLR is the sure visible sign of global warming.

    When there has been no visible sign of SLR, throwing model-bombs that make wild predictions is not making your point.

    Would you care to clarify your statement: “On the coastal SL theme, I have always claimed that we need to look behind the frontal dune system caused by a decline in SL at the end of the last Ice Age”

  111. Debbie June 22, 2014 at 7:41 am #

    I think Axel-Morner is probably in that 100+ papers range too?
    There are so many publications in this field that I guess a few will eventually prove right.
    Time and real time data will be the final judge however.
    Attempts to re invent the past is not going to change what the real climate/weather/ environment has done or will do. It doesn’t seem to have much respect for statistical trends based on global averages.

  112. spangled drongo June 22, 2014 at 7:43 am #

    Now gav, here’s a guy you used to follow and believe in.

    Time to start paying attention to him again:

  113. Neville June 22, 2014 at 8:50 am #

    Gav why would you remove Morner who is one of the most experienced SL experts in the world? Just ridiculous.

    But here’s a link to about another 25 recent studies that show little difference in SLR since 1950 and some show a deceleration. You can follow the link at each study to find the original abstract or sometimes the full study.
    It seems that most of the studies don’t back up the more extreme forecasts of the IPCC.

  114. Neville June 22, 2014 at 9:01 am #

    Just thought I should link to the Leclercq et al world glacier study again.

    A slowing of retreat takes place after 1950.

  115. gavin June 22, 2014 at 9:06 am #

    SD; just on modern coastal dune studies, some links worth reading, haven’t time today to go back over my long term interest as expressed over time on this blog. Note Hesp is now at SA uni. Call me if you care.

  116. Debbie June 22, 2014 at 9:26 am #

    I was thinking along the same lines Neville,
    Why do people such as Gavin on the one hand preach at us that we should respect experts in their field such as here:

    ” 100+ papers SD ; “NASA has named Gavin A. Schmidt to head the agency’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, a leading Earth climate research laboratory” ”

    Yet on the other hand summarily dismiss people who are experts in their field such as here:

    ” Nev; if we take Nils-Axel Morner out of your long list above there in little left. ”


    But here is a little summary of Nils-Axel Morner’s professional experience:

    Nils-Axel Mörner, born 1938, is the former head of the paleogeophysics and geodynamics department at Stockholm University. He retired in 2005.[1] He was president of the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) Commission on Neotectonics (1981–1989). He headed the INTAS (International Association for the promotion of cooperation with scientists from the New Independent States of the former Soviet Union) Project on Geomagnetism and Climate (1997–2003). He was formerly the Chairman of INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, and led the Maldives Sea Level Project.[2]

    What gives?

    Jaycee argues in a remarkably similar fashion on Agriculture.

    I think part of the clue may be embedded in that ABC piece I linked earlier re the Antarctic. . .particularly this little section:

    ” untouched by agriculture, mining or urban development, and is protected as a natural reserve.”

    So something in this world is only worthwhile if it’s ‘untouched’ ?
    If we tag agriculture, mining and urban development in this manner. . .what’s left?

  117. Neville June 22, 2014 at 9:59 am #

    Very true Debbie and my first link here was dismissed by JC as well. But the glacier expert in that case was the author of 250 papers.
    We are dealing with some strange people indeed. Here’s my first post above.

    Neville June 17, 2014 at 8:53 pm #

    I’d like to link to my last post here, because the prof’s info is pertinent and important.

    Geologist and glaciologist Prof Schluchter of Bern uni claims that science today is fundamentally dishonest.
    He is the author of 250 papers and is a giant in his field. He states that NH glaciers were much smaller in Roman times and the Rhone glacier was an ice free area 5,800 years out of the last 10,000 years.
    He also states there was a rapid retreat of glaciers in 1850 and then advances in the 1880s, 1920s and 1980s.
    This is a must read for anyone who thinks that our present temps are unusual or unprecedented. Of course temps today are not unusual at all.

  118. Debbie June 22, 2014 at 11:27 am #

    I think this comment/question that Larry examines up thread may also hold a clue:

    “But does any argument for anti global warming give any one of us an open license to keep consuming at the current rates?”

    It’s a classic, politically based, rhetorical question with a quite nasty aftertaste of misanthropy.

    Larry’s comments:

    “Big Government tends to attract rascals, who don’t really have our best interests at heart. . . . I for one do not trust them to tell me what I should forego, for the sake of future generations, and especially for the nebulous goal of ‘saving the planet’.


    We do not have enough information to set comprehensive policies of ‘rational’ impoverishment for the long-term “Greater Good”.

    Got a big tick and a big laugh from me.

    And, of course, that does not automatically therefore mean that I don’t care about the planet or the greater good.

  119. jaycee June 22, 2014 at 12:25 pm #

    ” Got a big tick and a big laugh from me.”

    ” Many a fool would deride..and fain would be on the laughing side.”

  120. spangled drongo June 22, 2014 at 1:41 pm #

    Neville, well and widely acknowledged higher tree lines, like higher SLs, earlier in the holocene should be very upsetting for the alarmists but they still manage to shrug it off and ignore the inconvenience.

    Debbie, the warmers can’t even believe a responsible budget is necessary yet they are convinced their concept of the high moral ground [which is exponentially more impoverishing to the already-poor] should be imposed on us all to prevent an almost immeasurable degree of warming.

  121. Debbie June 22, 2014 at 1:57 pm #

    Let me reword my previous comment for you:

    The fact that I appreciate Larry’s sense of humour and the reasoning behind it, has absolutely zippo, nada, zero, NO (!) relevance to how much I may or may not care about the planet or the greater good. . . nor does it have anything to do with my IQ.

    It’s called a sense of humour Jaycee. 🙂 🙂

    And while I am not a big fan of sarcasm. . .and I think that it is often over used and deserves to be called ‘the lowest form of wit’. . .it is nevertheless impossible not to laugh occasionally. . .especially when it’s combined with some classic irony.

    That’s also why I laughed at Bolt’s recent jibe at TP’s ‘Nigel no friends’ nonsense. . .even though I’m not much of an Andy Bolt fan.

    Hope that helps Jaycee?

  122. Neville June 22, 2014 at 5:08 pm #

    Ross McKitrick and Christopher Essex wrote the book “Taken by Storm “and Essex was able to overseer the maths and physics problems.

    He’s since made a very funny Alice in Wonderful video that shows that climate models rely on fake physics to TRY and predict future climate.

    Basically he states that it is nearly impossible and he even shows that the IPCC admit this in the 3rd report.
    But it’s a pity every world leader wasn’t aware of the fake physics 20 years ago before they wasted 100s of billions $ on this mission impossible.
    BTW he has been a climate modeller since the 1970s.

  123. spangled drongo June 22, 2014 at 6:13 pm #

    We can’t possibly allow this. Imagine what it could do to the GBR?

  124. gavin June 22, 2014 at 6:51 pm #

    Guys; Google; Nils-Axel Morner & Prof Schluchter @ “ scholarly” 2014 and apart from notrickszone there are very few sightings of either author.

  125. Debbie June 22, 2014 at 8:00 pm #

    I think you mean ‘citactions’ Gavin?

  126. spangled drongo June 22, 2014 at 8:08 pm #

    Gav, deal with specifics for once in your life and put away your gun.

  127. Debbie June 22, 2014 at 8:29 pm #

    Sorry about the typo.

  128. gavin June 22, 2014 at 8:30 pm #

    SD; I give you my drift again here. Recall if you can my posts way back re SLR and my East Coast oyster zone photography of their current tidal margins over many locations, a gift then on signature global warming, however lets add recent science articles on ocean pH trends that will surely be cited by other crutial studies.

    The rate of sea-level rise
    Oyster reefs can outpace sea-level rise

    Coral calcifying fluid pH dictates response to ocean acidification

    Acceleration of modern acidification in the South China Sea driven by anthropogenic CO2

  129. Larry Fields June 23, 2014 at 3:51 am #

    What Will Happen When the Earth’s Magnetic Field Switches

    Melissa –

    The Earth’s magnetic field protects life on Earth, shielding it from damaging radiation and moderating our climate. So the idea that it could completely flip around, or collapse altogether, should cause us to worry, right? Well, yes and no.

    Magnetosphere Basics

    The result of electrical currents generated deep within the Earth through dynamic action, the magnetosphere is a fluid force that is constantly changing in strength and orientation.

    You can read more here.

    Larry’s comment: This article, like most popular science pieces, has a few loose ends. To wit:

    “However, if the magnetic field were to significantly weaken, we could (potentially) be in trouble. In fact, some researchers have opined that there is ‘a direct link between the demise of the Neanderthals . . . and a significant decrease of the geomagnetic field intensity that occurred exactly at the same period.'”

    The obvious question: Suppose that the decrease in the Earth’s magnetic field contributed to the putative extinction of Neanderthals roughly 30 thousand years ago. Of course, we’re also assuming that they did not interbreed with the anatomically modern humans of the time. Why didn’t the weakened magnetic field have a similar effect on the latter category of people?

    But nooo. Heavily nuanced articles undermine the simplistic narratives, to which latter-day Neanderthal pop sci writers are so addicted. It’s not just AGW.

  130. Debbie June 23, 2014 at 8:00 am #

    So far you have attempted to summarily dismiss Nils-Axel Morner as somehow inconsequential in matters SL at least 3 times.
    1) Too many papers by him in the PR publications in the list that Neville posted
    2) Not cited enough in 2014
    3) Cited too much by certain others.

    In the same timeframe you have argued that Schmidt, with 100+ papers and experience/employment in the field should be listened to unquestionably and you have then linked more papers that you claim:
    ” will surely be cited by other crucial studies.”

    What gives Gavin?

    Perhaps you could be more specific about why you want to summarily dismiss Morner who is an expert in this field , with a lifetime of experience/research/employment in this field and with a plethora of peer reviewed publications in this field?

  131. Neville June 23, 2014 at 8:28 am #

    Gav there are many scientists who are dubious about sat altimetry SL measurements.
    But it doesn’t matter because they can still use tide gauges as a comparison and there are many recent studies that don’t show any acceleration at all. In fact many studies now show a slow down and no change since 1950. See my links above.
    And the co2 lower PH scare is hotly disputed in the literature as well. But please tell us how to fix your imagined co2 mitigation problems.
    A good start would be to protest in China and India where nearly all the future co2 emissions increase will come from anyway.

  132. Neville June 23, 2014 at 10:11 am #

    More con tricks from the IPCC. Maurice Newman also quotes Ken Stewart’s work on BOM temps.

  133. gavin June 23, 2014 at 12:28 pm #

    Deb & Nev; there is a long list of dubious climate science critics here starting bottom up, none feature in quality AGW-climate change debate or recent scientific literature.

  134. Debbie June 23, 2014 at 12:55 pm #

    Did you actually read that old submission from 2008?
    I’m wondering what you think it proves or disproves?

    I have never heard of the Lavoisier group before but, because you put that link up, I thought I would check to see if there is any more recent activity.
    There is:

    Australia has moved on since 2008 Gavin. . . we even have a different political party in office.

  135. Neville June 23, 2014 at 1:10 pm #

    Gav some of the Real climate members PR studies have some of the worst examples of hopeless use of data. They’ve even used the data upside down on a number of occasions in different studies.

    But perhaps you are joking? And we all remember the stupid Gergis and Karoly SH hockey stick nonsense easily exposed by Steve McIntyre’s blog. That’s why it was withdrawn and yet it still passed so called peer review.

  136. Neville June 23, 2014 at 1:29 pm #

    We should always remember this message from the Royal Society when the con merchants tell us” we are taking action on CC.”
    The bottom line is we can do nothing for thousands of years to mitigate AGW and the USA NAS agrees. It is all BS and nonsense and all pain for zero gain.

  137. Alan B. Goulding June 23, 2014 at 1:38 pm #

    I do value solar thermal power, but would limit it to the creation of, cheap as chips hydrogen, utilizing always available sea water, and solar thermal powered, water molecule cracking!
    [ Geothermal power can be utilized to heat and or cool homes winter and summer, for B.A!].
    Modernized and with the temperatures able to be more closely controlled, we wouldn’t necessarily have the combustion incidents that allowed this extraordinarily cheap method of hydrogen creation, to be supplanted by safer electrolysis.
    Even there, we can halve the energy input, for exactly the same hydrogen output, simply by adding a cobalt catalyst.
    When the hydrogen is consumed in a chemical reaction, inside a fuel cell, up to 80% max of the energy is returned along with pristine water.
    Lighter than air hydrogen, will rise to great heights, on it own and perhaps utilize the venturi effect to even turn a turbine or two on the way up any convenient hill, and one or two water powered, but much smaller turbines, back down to the next user.
    Now, given the catalyst halves the energy quantum, when compared to traditional electrolysis, the same amount of created hydrogen will still produce the old 70-80%, energy coefficient.
    We might even postulate, we could create a fixed cycle production capacity, that produces around a 30%+ energy surplus, or if you will, perpetual power, at least as long as the catalyst, keeps producing a 50% energy saving, for the same hydrogen production?
    Think, in a petrol combustion engine, as much as 85% of the available energy, is consumed spinning the flywheel and pushing the mass, leaving just 15% to push the passengers forward?
    Alan B.

  138. gavin June 23, 2014 at 2:53 pm #

    Deb; I reckon you can see through that Lavoisier lot, but if you can’t, sip slowly drop by drop.

  139. jaycee June 23, 2014 at 2:59 pm #

    Getting away from social or philosophical discussions that were floating around on this blog a while back…and drawing on the “expertise” of the many “tech-heads”…with input here…tell me..: do any of you “experts” have an opinion on the possibility of “perpetual motion” or “the philosopher’s stone” ?….c’mon..don’t be shy !

  140. sp June 23, 2014 at 3:20 pm #

    Jaycee: do any of you “experts” have an opinion on the possibility of “perpetual motion” or “the philosopher’s stone” ?….c’mon..don’t be shy !

    We will have perpetual motion about the same time the climate ceases to change.

    The Philosophers Stone, once thought to change base metals to gold, will now make renewable energy cost effective.

    I cannot find any evidence of cost effective renewable energy.

    The modern Philosophers Stone captures or converts CO2, stops the sea from rising and makes everybody feel good.

    Philosophers Stone’s are usually found under piles of Unicorn dung.

    Such thinking demonstrates the dark ages mentality of warmists.

    What are your thoughts on phlogiston Jaycee?

  141. Neville June 23, 2014 at 4:05 pm #

    And while you’re at it JC what about bigfoot, yowie, yeti, flying saucers, Bermuda triangle, loch ness monster, reincarnation, virgin birth, islam is a religion of peace, the earth is only 6,000 years old etc etc ? We know that you think that our present climate is unusual and unprecedented, so surely you must believe some of the above as well?

  142. Debbie June 23, 2014 at 4:20 pm #

    Until your link today I had never heard of the Lavoisier Group
    I thought you were using it as answer to my earlier question re Morner.
    I note that you have just simply avoided answering that question.
    I was also a bit perplexed why you thought that a submission from 2008 that was submitted to a now defunct department could possibly have recent scientific literature?
    Jaycee did something similar at an earlier thread re a rant about salt in the Murrumbidgee.
    He linked to a 12 year old paper which was primarily about the benefits of double cropping on moisture.
    I had some personal knowledge about that particular issue. . .but I have absolutely no opinion about the Lavoisier mob and claim no knowledge of or experience with them. . .other than it did not prove or disprove anything about your summary dismissal of Morner.

  143. jaycee June 23, 2014 at 4:29 pm #

    Aww….You people don’t want to really “talk things over”…you just want to pick a fight!

  144. gavin June 23, 2014 at 5:28 pm #

    JC; besides plenty of practical experience in mechanical motion i. e. fly wheels, pendulums, hydraulic rams etc all requiring some outside input. I suggest we should focus on Earth’s rotation, tides, winds, and a good helping of high frequency daylight energy.

  145. spangled drongo June 23, 2014 at 5:51 pm #

    Stop waffling, gav.

    No one’s denying big ACO2 increases, just CAGW [and therefore SLR] as a result.

    Nils Axel has more fundamental understanding of SLs than most scientists.

    Otherwise you alarmists wouldn’t attack him like you do.

    Now, your visible evidence of increasing SLR is…..?

  146. gavin June 23, 2014 at 10:03 pm #

    SD; for your info. my first link has a focus on east coast oyster bed “lower levels” in an opinion piece I have to respect in terms of its considered observations. Reckon I may have stired the pot in recent sorties around that area.

    by contrast these studies mostly go for the “high stand” with oysters on top, see fig 4 & 7 at the end and this was my angle in recording the present day SL max and rise in recent decades btw this review puts B Carter in another perspective.

    Gun lowered SD; but ran out of time otherwise beginning with follow up CT scan today after three lots of visitors yesterday, one stayed for two tooling up sessions in my chilly work area downstairs. Restored new PC to start and downloaded new ops overnight ready for pre dawn extra shell trials. Mate, I don’t have time for silly on line duals so call and settle.

  147. Toby June 23, 2014 at 10:49 pm #

    So Gavin all the oysters farmers are wrong and you are right?

    i dont know anybody who lives on the coast who believes sea levels are rising.

    I spend a lot of time on the south coast where these oyster farmers operate and i agree with them….as does nearly everybody I speak with who has lived on the coast for a long period of time.

    as you have also had pointed out to you on numerous occasions by very patient people, fort denison with a very long record shows no rate of change in sea levels.

    why would you go looking anywhere else? Why do you not believe the data for fort denison!!?

    KISS ………keep it simple stupid ,as the saying goes ( and I am not calling you stupid just using the saying)

    look long and hard enough and play around with reality and statistics enough and you can imagine anything to be the truth.

  148. Debbie June 24, 2014 at 7:39 am #

    🙂 🙂
    Yes Toby.
    Numbers don’t lie. . . but if you torture them for long enough, they will admit to anything!

  149. spangled drongo June 24, 2014 at 8:17 am #

    Hang in there , gav, and good luck.

    Here’s a bit of reading material:

    It’s amazing what you find when you are just about to fall off your perch.

    Yesterday I found an Eastern Bristlebird that I have been looking for for the last 25 years which have seemingly disappeared from Queensland and are nearing extinction.

  150. Neville June 24, 2014 at 8:26 am #

    The Bolter and other MSM journos ask how much so called global warming is just fiddled data.
    AB also refers to Jennifer’s recent posts about the dubious BOM data and the ongoing slog by Ken Stewart.

  151. Neville June 24, 2014 at 8:44 am #

    The Holgate et al 2007 SL study found a trend from 1904 to 1953 of 2.03mm p.a and a trend from 1954 to 2003 of 1.45mm p.a.
    Over the entire century of the study 1904 to 2003 the trend was found to be 1.7mm p.a. The later time period after 1954 was the lowest trend.

  152. gavin June 24, 2014 at 8:52 am #

    Quick search: “Nils Axel google scholarly 2014” Guess he moved on hey.

    “Nuclear Power and Radioactive Contamination”

    “Stonehenge Has Got a Younger Sister Ales Stones in Sweden Decoded”

    Note; Shonks Inc. turned up too, “The myth of the 97% climate change consensus”

    Let’s see Church –

    Folks; good ocean science begins here along with most other technical work.

  153. Toby June 24, 2014 at 9:18 am #

    so no answer to why they are all wrong Gav and you are right?

    no reason as to why you ignore fort denison data??

    so many links Gav and so many people making a living from torturing data.

    when you “search” hard enough you can find evidence fo almost anything you want.

    But why search for bizarre reasons when the obvious is staring you in the face.

    have you ever looked at the fort denison data?!

  154. Toby June 24, 2014 at 10:00 am #

    interesting little article today copied below. Depending on your point of view I guess this proves what ever you want. I read it and think well it must have been as warm or warmer 5000 years ago….and so what is so unusual about our modern warming?

    I wonder how the catastrophists would view it!?
    “SWISS scientists are urging mountain climbers and hikers to keep an eye out for lost items in melting ice patches lost hundreds or even thousands of years ago.

    A PROJECT run by a Swiss cultural institute in the canton of Graubuenden aims to gather artefacts trapped long ago in glaciers that are now turning up with more frequency due to a warming planet.

    The project encourages people to turn over things like wood or clothing they might run across in eastern Switzerland where the Swiss National Park is located.
    In recent years mountaineers have found everything from goat skin leggings in the Swiss Alps to a corpse in the melting ice of South Tyrol, each about 5000 years old.”

  155. Debbie June 24, 2014 at 10:41 am #

    Yet Neville found that Holgate study at Wiley too?
    Looks like Toby’s comment is spot on Gavin?
    Not too hard to find whatever you’re looking for, especially if you’re avoiding the bleeding obvious!
    What does the longest running Aussie tide gauge data indicate about SL and trends?

  156. Alan B. Goulding June 24, 2014 at 10:55 am #

    Well, Pressure vessels and experts. I was aware that different processes operate at different pressures, so does almost everyone contributing to this site.
    So I didn’t waste popcorn chewing time, comparing differences.
    That said, I believe we innovative Aussies hold the record for the deepest diving submersible vessel, make by some bloke in his backyard in Sydney?
    So I think we can probably manage fairly high pressure requirements, particularly, that required to smelt titanium, i.e?

    Experts? Well I have three definitions.
    #1 An X is an unknown quantity, and a spurt is merely a drip under pressure.
    #2 An expert invariably knows all the reasons something can’t be done, and aren’t there plenty posting here!?
    #3 In the last category, and these days of ever increasing specialization inside a single discipline; there are those who learn more and more about less and less, until they know absolutely all this is to know, about nothing at all.

    As for lack of water, a common problem for most dry-land farmers, most would concede W.A. is the driest state?
    Yet it has arguably the longest coastline and access to as much sea water as they can use?
    More Aussie innovation, has found a clever ways to use this endlessly reliable water source to grow some crops.
    Here’s how it works; ag pipes, wrapped in membrane filter material, are buried at an optimum depth. And various crops panted on top.
    These may be trees, or various grasses, or legumes. with very long tap roots!
    It seems some plants have a better pulling power than most pumps.
    And reverse osmosis, work better, when a external vacuum is applied rather high internal pressure.
    Another clever and simple Aussie idea, just pumps sea water into trays, on the floor of a very large glasshouse, and then allows evaporation to provide all the needed water, for most intensive, market garden crops.
    The growth can be seriously stimulated, by adding scrubbed power station smoke stack emission, which provides Co2;[ a tremendous fertilizer,] and some residual heat.
    The added advantage in purging with Co2, is the destruction of all herbivore/insect pests!
    If climate change is indeed real, and I believe it could be, then there is much money to be made adapting to it, with ultra clever ideas, like fodder sheds and oil rich algae farming.
    One current algae farmer, growing diesel producing varieties, in our northwest, to supply cost effective diesel for the iron ore industry; is on the public record saying, that given economies of scale, this fuel type, could be retailed, even with an excise, for 44 cents a litre.
    And the diesel is a superior, better lubricating, cleaner burning, endlessly sustainable product!
    Climate change just doesn’t have to be the end of the world or life as we know it, unless we are just plain stupid, and simply ignore the precautionary principle, or fail to adequately hedge our bets, or seriously innovate.
    And if there’s a much more reliable quid in it, who would seriously chose the current status quo, and endless flood, fire and famine, that has contributed, no doubt, to the four or so reported suicides, by farmers at the very end of their rope, every week!
    i.e., a fish farm the size of Eagle farm’s main runway, will produce as much cash flow as 10,000 acres of subsistence grazing, and a fodder shed, covering what, around half an acre, will produce as much green graze, as thirty acres of grassland.
    Or salt drought and frost tolerant native wisteria, as ex mill crush fodder, will as a very high protein feedlot substitute, outperform any similar quantities of grain; as well as, support a viable bio fuel industry; or chicken, pig or fish farming.
    Multiple reliable cash flows!
    And given native wisteria, is also a nitrogen fixing perennial legume, more fertile farmland/productive graze.

    I don’t believe perpetual motion is actually possible, nor is breaking the law of thermodynamics, but perhaps cold fusion is.
    After all, all matter, is just transformed energy, and perhaps we can enlist some clever and very safe chemical reaction ways, to extract some of it, with the help of (a) catalyst(s), or indeed, gravity beating, lighter than air, gases?[ Methane, Hydrogen]

    At the start of the steam age, experts all knew full well, that one couldn’t exceed 40 miles per hour, without exploding or disappearing into the fifth dimension!
    Later, experts knew full well, that you just couldn’t fly, let alone break the sound barrier!
    Now ,experts know full well, that perpetual motion is as impossible as exceeding the speed of light, except, we have credible scientific evidence, that melbar particles do just that, along specific lines through the known universe.
    Perhaps they’ve just found those mythical worm holes, or a way to, beam me up Scotty.
    Alan B.

  157. Neville June 24, 2014 at 1:17 pm #

    Willis doesn’t have much time for Mann’s hockey stick fraud and he even gives Tony B a serve.

    Willis Eschenbach says:

    June 23, 2014 at 4:23 pm

    Tonyb says:
    June 23, 2014 at 2:14 pm

    … In 2011 I wrote this article which extended cet to 1538. In it i Compared the temperature reconstructions of both Hubert lamb and Michael Mann.

    Tony, the idea that Mann’s reconstruction is anything but GIGO is laughable. You trying to use it in a scientific paper is a joke. It is well-known that Mann made a foolish newbie math error in that paper, using un-centered principal component analysis that mined for hockeysticks. He also lied about the analysis to a Senate committee, and refused to reveal his data and code despite numerous requests. Finally, he knew before he published it that his results were bogus, as he stashed away inconvenient results in a folder named CENSORED TO 1400 … and you think what he did is science?


    I fear that your failure to deal with or even discuss these issues in your analysis renders your entire approach worse than useless. Sorry to say that, but when you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas. Since you either can’t see or are unwilling to discuss the glaring and widely discussed problems with the Mann hockeystick analysis, why on earth should I pay even the slightest attention to your opinions on anything?


  158. Neville June 24, 2014 at 3:29 pm #

    This 2012 Yadu et al study finds that human use of ground water makes up about 42% of global SLR.
    Here is the study——

    Here is the abstract——
    Model estimates of sea-level change due to anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial water storage

    Yadu N. Pokhrel,1, 2, 3,
    Naota Hanasaki,4,
    Pat J-F. Yeh,1,
    Tomohito J. Yamada,2,
    Shinjiro Kanae5,
    & Taikan Oki1,

    Corresponding author

    Journal name:
    Nature Geoscience
    Year published:

    25 October 2011
    17 April 2012
    Published online
    20 May 2012

    Article tools

    Rights & permissions
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    Global sea level has been rising over the past half century, according to tide-gauge data1, 2. Thermal expansion of oceans, melting of glaciers and loss of the ice masses in Greenland and Antarctica are commonly considered as the largest contributors, but these contributions do not entirely explain the observed sea-level rise1. Changes in terrestrial water storage are also likely to affect sea level3, 4, 5, 6, but comprehensive and reliable estimates of this contribution, particularly through human water use, are scarce1. Here, we estimate sea-level change in response to human impacts on terrestrial water storage by using an integrated model that simulates global terrestrial water stocks and flows (exclusive to Greenland and Antarctica) and especially accounts for human activities such as reservoir operation and irrigation. We find that, together, unsustainable groundwater use, artificial reservoir water impoundment, climate-driven changes in terrestrial water storage and the loss of water from closed basins have contributed a sea-level rise of about 0.77 mm yr−1 between 1961 and 2003, about 42% of the observed sea-level rise. We note that, of these components, the unsustainable use of groundwater represents the largest contribution.

  159. gavin June 24, 2014 at 5:44 pm #

    Nev; your latest link, recent ground water use + 42% SLR gives us only another model.

    Mug amateur SLR deniers; the sea level rise is inferred in all docs published by government authorities and their agencies. Our Fort Denison is no exception.

    estimates of sea-level change impacts

  160. jaycee June 24, 2014 at 7:04 pm #

    Geez! mob of “deniers and / or adaptors” are thick…’ADAPT OR DIE !” you say….do you know how long it takes or has taken the human species to adapt so that we are what we are today?…and the rest of the flora and fauna that we take for granted around us?…ask this site’s “Mine Host”, she’s a biologist, she has the ‘figgers’….you can see a rather nice pic of her at the bottom of this page…notice the healthy glow of her skin…that “simpering gleam” in her bright blue eyes….and those lovely pearls…with the catastrophic climate change that will come with unrestrained pollution, how much of that classic “English Rose” beauty will be destroyed… the Human race, both white and dark?…you “adaptors” can’t really believe things will remain the same if we have to live a troglodyte some of you seem to do now!
    So don’t give me the mathematics of survival…give me the social reality.

  161. Toby June 24, 2014 at 7:56 pm #

    Nowhere in that article Gav the “Mug” believer does it use fort denison data that i can see…i wasted 30 mins looking for it but all i found was continual referral to IPCC and satellite data?!

    why? because this article is all about how fort denision will be damaged by rising sea levels…..pretty inconvenient that the actual data measured at fort denison shows this whole article to be crap.

    More scientists being paid to produce crap in the name of CAGW..

    for a supposed “expert”, why dont you just look at the data?

  162. Toby June 24, 2014 at 7:57 pm #

    jc do us all a favour and stop making such an idiot of yourself

  163. jaycee June 24, 2014 at 8:19 pm #

    Just “playing to my audience” , Toby…enjoying the show?…just leave your wallet by the door……you won’t miss the 20c. in it!

  164. Toby June 24, 2014 at 8:54 pm #

    This bloke actually analysed the data …and guess what …the emperor has no clothes.

    As an island nation with some 85% of the population residing within 50 km of the coast, Australia faces significant threats into the future from sea level rise. Further, with over 710,000 addresses within 3 km of the coast and below 6-m elevation, the implication of a projected global rise in mean sea level of up to 100 cm over the 21st century will have profound economic, social, environmental, and planning consequences. In this context, it is becoming increasingly important to monitor trends emerging from local (regional) records to augment global average measurements and future projections. The Australasian region has four very long, continuous tide gauge records, at Fremantle (1897), Auckland (1903), Fort Denison (1914), and Newcastle (1925), which are invaluable for considering whether there is evidence that the rise in mean sea level is accelerating over the longer term at these locations in line with various global average sea level time-series reconstructions. These long records have been converted to relative 20-year moving average water level time series and fitted to second-order polynomial functions to consider trends of acceleration in mean sea level over time. The analysis reveals a consistent trend of weak deceleration at each of these gauge sites throughout Australasia over the period from 1940 to 2000. Short period trends of acceleration in mean sea level after 1990 are evident at each site, although these are not abnormal or higher than other short-term rates measured throughout the historical record.

  165. jaycee June 24, 2014 at 9:27 pm #

    You statisticians have all the links and numbers at your fingetips…and yet…and yet here, in the middle of winter…in a very cold snap in the middle of winter (I see some in Vic’ and NSW. are suffering blizzards!) I am picking nice fat mushrooms…TODAY EVEN!…and I am still picking tomatos…lovely…now there are those rude folk on this site will and do say; wtte ;..: “JC. you’re an idiot”…ok, me an idiot…but what do you call those mushrooms..scotch mist?…oh!, Debbie would say .. we pick mushys here all the year…they even grow them in the district…well blow me know, Debbie…they grow them in this state controlled environments….but they never used to grow out here in the mallee in the middle of a cold snap in the middle of winter!
    But dammit!…it’s those bloody fungi…give ’em the right conditions…you know…warm..wet…blowing all over the place…infecting things…I think I saw the rellie out the other day droppin’ a bit of fungicide on the growing crop…I can’t be sure, but I do notice some nasty black stuff on the residual cereal crop growth around here…..
    Say..Toby…pr’aps you got a link or two or even a wise word or two to assuage our doubt…but don’t go too hard, I’m just beginning to enjoy those mushrooms ! (the ‘toms’ are nice too!).

  166. jaycee June 24, 2014 at 10:21 pm #

    An’ you know..when I think about it…it’s those little things ..what did Darwin say..: “It’s not so much the little things in life, but the life in little things”…(I hope it was him…gosh..what with all these “Googlers” around here, you wanna be correct at least half the time!)..those fungi…the butterflies out at the wrong time of year..those native trees flowering out of season….so you ask the “old timers” of the district how things are on their place and they’ve never seen this or that happening before in their memory….and you see Neville and Toby and sd…and some others showing us more links than a prickle-chain…to more information than the “man in blue” ..about more “stuff” than you’d find in the frayed arm of Dad’s old club sofa! ….so you begin to doubt what your eyes have seen…but when you go out the next day…there it is again…that “evidence on the ground”…and you start to think that those “linkers” on the site are starting to “sound” just like those folk they say are sounding not really like scientists, but idiots!…now why is that?

    Why is it that the very evidence before your eyes has to be dismissed out of hand to accommodate the “evidence” in a posted link?…I mean..if one was but a youth, with little experience under their belt..fair enough…but when one reaches an advanced age, full of years of investigative curiosity…why does one have to so quickly throw away that experience in favour of a stranger’s posted link?

    Well…the night is wearing on..I suppose some of them will change back into pumpkins soon and we will have to wait till the light of day before they warm-up enough to get the old oil circulating to get a response…..but hey!…we do look forward to their smear of wisdom!

  167. Debbie June 24, 2014 at 11:17 pm #

    Ranting again?
    It’s not unusual or unprecedented to have cold snaps in the middle of winter . . .it would be unusual not to.
    What is the ‘evidence on the ground’ ???? Mushrooms???? Tomatoes?????? Your rellies?????
    Evidence of what???????

  168. spangled drongo June 25, 2014 at 7:43 am #

    When warmist ideology is your religion, evidence is whatever and wherever you want it to be.

    The softer the science, the better the scientist.

  169. Debbie June 25, 2014 at 8:58 am #

    Yes SD, that does appear to be the case.
    When Jaycee goes into a hand waving, negative rant. . .the underlying theme seems to be that humans are an evil blight on the planet and also that somehow humans are not a part of the global environment.
    The ‘evidence’ would appear to be that ANYTHING (!) that has been touched by humanity is automatically the hallmark of an impending catastrophe.
    But aren’t those mushrooms amazingly adaptable?
    I picked the very last of my tomatoes only a couple of days ago too. . .the tomatoes have lasted longer because so far this winter we have not had a heavy frost here.
    I had to mow the lawn again for the same reason.
    It has been bitterly cold here however. . .I’ve been double rugging my horses and the slow combustion heater has been on full time, and we’ve got the scarves and gloves and beanies out.
    Unlike Jaycee. . and Jaycee claims to be quite a bit older than me. . .I can distinctly remember seasons very similar to this one.
    The really ugly one for this part of the world was most definitely the millennium drought. Thank goodness that sucker broke in 2009/10!!!!
    The frosts were so heavy in the winters during the drought that sometimes it looked like it had snowed here. . .no mushrooms peeping up their heads then and no late season tomatoes then either. 🙂

  170. Neville June 25, 2014 at 8:58 am #

    Good stuff Toby, Debbie, Spangled but you’re probably wasting your time, because you’re arguing with religious fundamentalists. And nothing will shake their beliefs. Facts don’t count at all.
    Probably one of the shining lights of their warmist iconography is an increase in extreme weather events. Big HIPPO Gore flogged this in his AIT sci-fi flick and his book.
    But the IPCC has hosed this down in the 5th report and when you look at Indur Goklany’s studies it’s easy to see why this has gone on the back burner.

  171. jaycee June 25, 2014 at 9:02 am #

    ” Evidence of what???????”..Debbie.
    ” The softer the science, the better the scientist.”

    Well..I was hoping my cast-net would catch a few more “little fishes”…but these two will do. Evidence of what?..Deb’ asks…of patterns, deb’…of patterns of structure….that is what scientific research is built upon…you see certain repeated behaviours and you investigate such….( it’s why I stopped chatting with you, Deb’…I could see a pattern of behaviour that was no worthwhile end…) now with climate change science, the picture is so big…over such a long space of time, that it is difficult for the lay-person to encompass the science…hence the too-ing and fro-ing of link vs. link between the antagonists on this and many other sites.
    But…we, of the general public do have our own eyes and our own knowledge and experience and memory to “join the dots” of little bits and pieces of patterns to notice things are changing on the ground….eg ; how troublesome it is to find a spot now where the veggies won’t get scorched by the hotter summer sun..why we are having trouble getting a good crop off what were good cropping fruit trees and why some fruit is not setting on the trees so well as it used to….why we are picking mushrooms so far out of season than we ever did before…those sort of little things..not only in the garden, but in other examples in peoples lives…they know what I mean…many small instances that make you think..facts that stick around even when the scientists throw so many “facts and figures” at one…obfuscating the obvious.
    I can see the antagonists on this site furiously attacking each other with “links at thirty parsecs”…and I won’t be surprised if one side or the other soon move into astrology or the reading of chicken’s entrails…(see sd.’s comment above!).
    There are many ways of “reading” the patterns on the ground…but there is one absolute truth..and that is ; in the natural state (mark that ; “natural state”), micro-organisms and other fungal entities behave in an absolute exact mechanical response to the environment around them…if the “climate” is right, they will awake…if the “climate” is wrong, they will stay dormant….Debbie….the mushrooms are awake!……and for yourself..: “wakey, wakey” !

  172. sp June 25, 2014 at 9:24 am #

    JC – you asked to be called an idiot.

    Your an idiot!

    Mushrooms and ranting does not an arguement make.

  173. Toby June 25, 2014 at 9:35 am #

    OH you poor soul JC, it must be miserable unable to read properly. So when we discuss our own observations about sea lvl rise we are wrong and when we site scientific papers we are wrong and should use observations?

    climate changes mate, get over it. stop making a fool of yourself

  174. Debbie June 25, 2014 at 9:49 am #

    You are conflating local seasonal variations and patterns with weather and climate.
    Further you are conflating cropping and the behaviour of introduced crops with the behaviour of the Aussie, ephemeral (and highly adaptive) native flora and fauna.
    It’s verging on garbled nonsense.

  175. jaycee June 25, 2014 at 10:13 am #

    And then there’s this argument of coal fired power stations vs. renewable energy…I won’t go into the pro’s and con’s here..we have all heard them over and over….but getting back to what I would call ; ” the lay-persons analysis”….let’s try a different approach.

    Ok…for arguments sake…let’s agree that the cost of setting up and building a coal-fired power station, a cluster of wind-generators and an array of solar panels (of equal capacity output) are the same price….lets’ agree the maintenance of those systems is the same cost…lets agree the life-span of those systems is of equal length of time…say twenty five years…there is one very, very large factor that is exclusive to only one of those systems…and that is the fueling cost of the coal-fired station.

    I don’t know how much it costs to fuel-up a coal generator over it’s life of twenty five years…but I do know if i could drive my car around with free fuel for twenty five years I could retire on the income!

    Now there you see, is the lay-man’s interpretation of just one benefit of renewable energy over conventional fossil generators.
    just ONE benefit!

  176. jaycee June 25, 2014 at 10:15 am #

    sp. …: ” Your an idiot! “…= you’re…just sayin’ !

  177. Neville June 25, 2014 at 10:27 am #

    JC there’s a bit of a problem with your analysis of comparing coal with your so called renewables.
    Point one coal or nuclear or gas stns are base load and last for at least 50 years, point 2 wind and solar HAVE TO BE BACKED UP with either nuclear, coal or gas etc.
    You don’t have to worry about coal or gas or nuclear and all are much cheaper if you subtract the subsidy paid by the taxpayer for wind and solar.
    But why do you think the EU and Germany are not building more wind and solar??? BECAUSE THEY DON”T WORK and only stuff up their grids.

  178. sp June 25, 2014 at 10:42 am #

    JAYCEE: “but I do know if i could drive my car around with free fuel for twenty five years I could retire on the income”

    $100 dollars p/w for fuel x 52 weeks x 25 years = $135 000

    At $50k p/a $135k would last 2.7 years – short retrement JC

    Also, why assume cost to build, maintain and operate a coal fired power plant, a wind generator and solar panels are the same? They are not and it is plainly silly to prettend they are.

    I think you are not representative of the “layperson”.

  179. Debbie June 25, 2014 at 10:59 am #

    Jaycee has just committed a massive blooper by comparing apples with oranges.

    The MAJOR cost is the SOCIALISED INFRASTRUCTURE!. . .which in the case of electricity is the grid.

    You do have the right to go off the grid if you wish & pay for your own infrastructure.
    If you don’t want to pay for fuel which has a significant logistic/infrastructure cost. . you can
    walk or ride a bike or ride a horse or something.

  180. gavin June 25, 2014 at 11:35 am #

    Toby; “i wasted 30 mins looking for it but all i found was continual referral to IPCC and satellite data”

    Exactly what I intended as those folk looked beyond tide gauge info for SL direction. Re your link and “This bloke actually analysed the data” you have only one person’s opinion and methods and they won’t stand by themselves. Google scholarly proves me on that score but I do recommend you or somebody else CHECK for a biased conclusion here.

  181. sp June 25, 2014 at 12:10 pm #

    Toby is correct – the Fort Denison link provided by Gav provides nothing to show incresed sea levels. Just more waffle

  182. sp June 25, 2014 at 12:20 pm #

    Toby is correct – the Fort Denison link provided by Gav provides nothing to show incresed sea levels. Just more waffle.

    The link from Gavin shows:

    “the difference between the relative 20-year moving average water level time series of the nearest gauge record (Fort Denison) implies the Pilot Station gauge may have subsided by approximately 60–70 mm over the period from 1940 to 2000 alone. For this reason, the Newcastle record should be considered with extreme caution for sea level rise measurements.”

    “Further research is required to rationalise the difference between the acceleration trend evident in the global sea level time-series reconstructions and the relatively consistent deceleration trend evident in the long-term Australasian tide gauge records. These differences are likely to have a significant bearing on the global average and ‘‘regional’’ projections for sea level rise into the future.”

  183. Alan B. Goulding June 25, 2014 at 12:21 pm #

    J.C. It’s said, you can always tell a Victorian, you just can’t tell them very much! Clearly there is a place for alternatives, particularly as economies of scale, reduce costs; even as rising fossil fuels prices, make them more and more expensive for the average Joe.
    I had a wind powered bike. I just had to work out how to change direction, stay inside the speed limit, or stop the parachute from getting entangled in the spokes, and bring the whole kit and caboodle, to a sudden screeching stop, that could make the rider, an airborne unguided missile.
    Or indeed, become permanently airborne, and fly off over the rainbow.
    Its not the fall that hurts, just the sudden stop at the bottom!
    Levity aside, we had the example, during the last, and extremely enduring drought, of power price hikes, due to the increasing shortage of water.
    Fortunately, modern pebble reactors don’t need water, given the coolant is helium.
    Their small size, around 10-20 MW, means they can also be massed produced, and sited as trucked in wide loads, to be up and producing energy within days; and at sites not necessarily served by that great white elephant, the national grid!
    Marble sized pebbles of fuel encased in grapefruit sized balls of virtually bulletproof harden graphite, means, these reactors, simply cant melt down, given the fuel can never reach a critical reaction, due to the inbuilt spacing mechanism that prevents just that, let alone a melted fuel pool, that creates another fukushima!
    Given a predicable, and foreseeable future, we would be far better served by replacing this energy gobbling white elephant national grid, with a national pipeline grid; and no not tomorrow, but very progressively, as market forces and or urgent energy certainty, dictate.
    We have the technology, to change the climate of our island nation, just by planting various crops that can utilize sea water, on our western shores, where bugger all grows currently.
    Eventually, particularly if we plant cash crop trees, and or orchards, along that western foreshore, we will put much more moisture into the atmosphere, where i.e., west Australian invented wind powered dehumidifiers, could extract some of that increased moisture direct from the air, as up to, 4,000 litres per day!
    And use it as say, pristine domestic water, where none is currently available.
    The other feature of endlessly watered new growth, in large enough scale, is the eventual recharge of atmospheric moisture and from the west, where little if any recharge occurs?
    I don’t know what the optimum level of rain forest growth is, to act as a recharge instrument, or provide perpetual self watering water supplies. 20-30 square miles perhaps?
    It would be nice to find out.
    And putting more moisture into our western atmosphere, could hardly ever be a waste of money! Given all our Australian weather patterns, move west to east!
    Why even the Sahara, could be made to once again grow grain!
    All that is required for that to happen , is to add water.
    Something that only needed sea water, membrane wrapped ag pipes and wind power, that started along the more humid eastern coastline, would work there?
    But particularly, where we have prototype examples, that have done what I’ve just outlined, on a much smaller scale.
    What is currently missing from the essential equation, is a government that allows itself to pick winners.
    And that has its core reason, in wind powered greens or, the sheer lack of even rudimentary, scientific knowledge inside any of our parliaments, or political ranks!
    The govt needs good advice, instead of the usual plethora of yes men, or fanatical Ideologues, with a patent anti dam anti development agenda!
    You need to be careful with those mushies mate, particularly gold tops!
    Some can send you completely round the bend, where the world is populated with flying saucers and little green men, while others will kill you!
    I kid you not!
    Alan B.

  184. Neville June 25, 2014 at 12:46 pm #

    Alan B I tried to click on your name but your site couldn’t be found. Are you sure your ideas are feasible and if so are any of these ideas being used yet? And if so, where?
    Who knows sometime in the future cold fusion may work but until then I only remain an interested sceptic.

  185. Neville June 25, 2014 at 12:59 pm #

    Interest in green jobs is heading south at a rate of knots. Similar to the interest in the mythical CAGW.

  186. Neville June 25, 2014 at 1:16 pm #

    Here’s another hopeless forecast by the UK MET office. Their 10 year forecast was a disaster and in fact couldn’t be more wrong. Calling them a laughing stock is probably being too kind.

  187. Toby June 25, 2014 at 1:28 pm #

    gav, i know i am a fool to discuss anything with you, but why, when you are asked have you looked at fort denision data, would you respond with an article on fort denison that does not look at fort denison data?!!…did you read it? sadly i did and once again i repeat it is all about how rising sea levels will damage fort denison….based on …you guessed it modeled data and global data and NOT fort denison data.

    thx for wasting my time …so much for being an expert.

    i will stop now before i say something offensive. You have a right to think as you do, but do not think you have a right to be respected

  188. Toby June 25, 2014 at 1:36 pm #

    Very interesting post Alan thx! do you have any links for the greening ideas?

    i am all in favour of your nuclear idea, but sadly suspect too many vested interests in big business and govt ( and of course ignorant environmentalists) will scupper (haha!) such a sensible idea

  189. Debbie June 25, 2014 at 1:40 pm #

    ” What is currently missing from the essential equation, is a government that allows itself to pick winners.
    And that has its core reason, in wind powered greens or, the sheer lack of even rudimentary, scientific knowledge inside any of our parliaments, or political ranks!
    The govt needs good advice, instead of the usual plethora of yes men, or fanatical Ideologues, with a patent anti dam anti development agenda!”

    Yep gotta agree!
    That ‘anti dam anti development agenda’ and your earlier comment re the misuse of the Precautionary Principle probably does lie at the bottom of a lack of vision or possibility thinking in our country over about the last 3 decades.
    That ‘anti mindset/political culture’ appeared at about the same time as ‘big environment’ started to learn how to pull the heartstrings of the urban elite and the swinging urban electorates.

    Also gotta agree with your point that basically says. . . if we’re influencing the weather/climate, then why not recognise what the positives in that would be and start influencing the weather/climate in ways that create net benefits?

    That ability to enhance what lies around us, is actually a naturally developed attribute of the human species which has been developing since the appearance of prehistoric man.

  190. jaycee June 25, 2014 at 3:05 pm #

    Ok…so I haven’t completely talked you around…but I believe we are getting there…I am curious, though, why Debbie..the one person on here who has qualification enough, through her capacity of turning on and off some irrigation respond to my propositions, why she lets herself be led astray by a couple of miscreant pensioners from the spare room of their housing commission unit in Western Sydney (though I gotta believe that someone using the nom-de-plume of “spangled drongo”, has to hail from somewhere like Fortitude Valley or it’s equal!!)…and the other a scrivener with a woeful grasp on the art of insult and a wandering keyboard finger!

  191. jaycee June 25, 2014 at 3:08 pm #

    Alan, ol’ son…what you propose sounds brilliant!!…just brilliant!!…..if I was writing a science-fiction comic-book….looking forward to the next chapter….that’s if they don’t first..; “Beam you up” !

  192. Alan B. Goulding June 25, 2014 at 3:45 pm #

    Neville, The 50% reduction of energy in cobalt catalytic assisted electrolysis, is a patented process, and by an ivy league professor; and several years ago!
    Other working examples of salt water underground irrigation, i.e., can be found, as working prototypes, on new inventors, an old ABC program!
    Why New Inventors was dropped I’ll never know, given the super bright Aussies and their ideas, it promulgated.
    When the Celtic tiger was still a world beating and growing economy, it invested in its own people, [family concerns/family farms etc,] and their better ideas, niche markets and the like!
    Only to be cruelled, by debt laden foreign speculators, buying up and forcing up the then price of real estate and family farms?
    With the speculation engineered collapse, came a bankrupting loss of property value and assets!
    I just hope our so called leaders are wise enough, to emulate that which worked for the astounding and massively growing Celtic tiger, and completely reject that which brought crashing flat out on its proverbial face.
    Canada seems to have looked and completely rejected foreign ownership of domestic real estate?
    Hence the new found foreign interest, in quite grossly overvalued Aussie property?
    Given current trends, few if any Aussie kids will be able to buy property, and we as a people, remain in danger, as a nation, of becoming mostly tenants in our own land!?
    Alan B.

  193. gavin June 25, 2014 at 4:42 pm #

    SP; I was giving Toby a soft lead in re tide gauge analysis by one who failed to fly on sites other than the usual denial mob blogs. It’s too easy for you guys to rely on WUWT, notrickszone etc without trying to find a faulty method for your selves.

    Now let me excuse most of your ignorance on this basis, you don’t come from an engineering background and you haven’t yet mastered physics or mathematical analysis appropriate for modern climate science. When I give you a lead in, show respect in not repeating tiresome denialist mantra. BTW I found these links quite simply after your posts by searching for method and citations.

  194. gavin June 25, 2014 at 5:25 pm #

    I leave local SL buffs this link to contemplate and become a trend analyst using their own mathematics

  195. Alan B. Goulding June 25, 2014 at 5:29 pm #

    J.C: suggest you Google up the National Post, [American,] and an article on NASA building a actual warp engine, that theoretically,may enable 10 times the speed of light!? There could even be, some planet destroying spin offs?
    Too many known unknowns, too many unknown knowns, too many unknown unknowns and not enough known knowns!?
    Isn’t it funny how so much of our science fiction, predates scientific discovery; including helicopters, submarines and rocket travel to the moon, and all in the 18th century!? Bag Mr Welles and Sir Issac Asminov, if you will?
    We have the mobile phone that featured in space trek i.e. And practical robots, [warning, warning Will Roberts,] may not be too far off?
    And now, a warp engine that doesn’t necessary need all the energy of the universe, but that of a rocket, seems possible.
    I first read about melbar particles in the seventies, in a publication labeled science fact.
    One supposes, it might be the neutrinos, the hallidon collider, seems to have identified, as being some measured 60 nanoseconds faster than light?
    It seems to me, only those things we tell ourselves are impossible, are those things that are actually impossible.
    Not for nothing is it writ large, what the mind of man can conceive and believe, the mind of man can achieve.
    I mean, just look at the strides we’ve made in air travel, since the wright brothers and the Kitty Hawk.
    My science and physics, may be limited, and certainly not up to developing a working warp drive, but the eggheads at NASA, have no such limitations!
    Alan B.

  196. jaycee June 25, 2014 at 5:58 pm #

    Isn’t it amazing, Alan…we have all the imagination in the world to think up gizmos and junkets and warp-engines and time travel…yet can’t seem to wrap our heads around the idea that we just may have already poo’d our own nest !……aren’t we clever.

  197. Toby June 25, 2014 at 6:33 pm #

    “Now let me excuse most of your ignorance on this basis, you don’t come from an engineering background and you haven’t yet mastered physics or mathematical analysis appropriate for modern climate science”…so why don t you apply these concept to all the dodgy maths and stats that underpin the theory of CAGW?!

    when you answer a question with something entirely different then you are avoiding the issue .

    I too have read the tamino link….and many others.

    Go and look at the data….look at graphs showing the rate of change,

    I agree newcastle is an outlier and should be thrown out….but there are a number of othersites in oz and nz that support fort denison data.

    I know you love your king tides…how come no new highs have occurred for over 40 years at the fort?

  198. Neville June 25, 2014 at 6:52 pm #

    The Bolter has a good summary of the Palmer and Gore idiocy. What a clueless pair of donkeys and not a brain to bless themselves with.

  199. Debbie June 25, 2014 at 7:35 pm #

    Considering you also use a nom-de-plume. . .and imply that you are over 60. . .why should I pay any more attention to you?
    I am completely underwhelmed by your claimed disappointment with me and my qualifications.
    It has zip to do with the questions being asked here and/or the comments being made here.
    Your comments about Jen’s photo and her qualifications also have zip to do with anything of any substance at all.
    If you’re attempting to reduce this discussion to sneering and a personality sparring contest. . .you’re visiting the wrong blog.

  200. sp June 25, 2014 at 7:47 pm #

    Alan B – could not agree more on foreign ownership of domestic real estate and new found foreign interest, in quite grossly overvalued Aussie property. Possibly a looming problem

  201. spangled drongo June 25, 2014 at 7:50 pm #

    What’s to contemplate? ~ 2.5 inches per century with SLs ~ the same as they were 60 years ago like I told you upthread.

  202. jaycee June 25, 2014 at 8:02 pm #

    ” If you’re attempting to reduce this discussion to sneering and a personality sparring contest.”

    ” Jaycee?
    Ranting again?

    ” Yes SD, that does appear to be the case.
    When Jaycee goes into a hand waving, negative rant. . .the underlying theme seems to be that humans are an evil blight on the planet and also that somehow humans are not a part of the global environment.”

    Short “corporate memory” , Deb?

  203. spangled drongo June 25, 2014 at 8:12 pm #

    Yes, Neville. Gore’s predictions of doom and the catastrophe of excess ACO2 can be seen here:

    World wheat prices are falling because we are overproducing with good seasons and lots of ACO2 wheat-food.

    Not to mention the “Gore Effect” on everything he is associated with.

    Just think what odds you would have got from Paul Ehrlich on a wheat surplus in 2014 with a population of 7bil+.

    These are the people gav, jaycee and co align with in their considered wisdom.

  204. gavin June 25, 2014 at 8:31 pm #

    SD; “These are the people gav, jaycee and co align with…”

    No SD, I usually give you the official local Ocean / Climate science up front without referring to your intensely opinionated blogs. Where did you find me discussing Paul Ehrlich & Gore? On here recently?

  205. spangled drongo June 25, 2014 at 9:02 pm #

    Gav, are you saying your comments are not opinionated? Or alarmist?

    Your main problem is you have trouble finding any evidence to support your opinions and then when you think you have found some it turns, out like that last link, to shoot you in the foot.

    Don’t kid yourself. You’re a wearer of sandwich boards. The writing may not be as large as Paul’s or Al’s but you’re sure not here for the scepticism of CAGW.

  206. sp June 25, 2014 at 9:20 pm #

    Why not provide a synopsis of each link for us gavin? Tell us the key points, and provide references supported by page number.

  207. Debbie June 25, 2014 at 9:31 pm #

    Sorry Jaycee,
    It looked like negative ranting to me.
    I was commenting on the observed behaviour . . .not the person or the person’s occupation.
    It might be a good idea to comment on Gavin’s behaviour here at the moment too.
    He is putting up a lot of links.
    Jaycee apparently doesn’t like that?

  208. jaycee June 25, 2014 at 9:44 pm #

    Clive has just delivered Tony a “Godfather slap”…; one hand adjusting Tony’s tie , while the other giving him a backhander!

  209. jaycee June 25, 2014 at 9:50 pm #

    No, Debbie…I’m not one for “linking”…I believe if one cannot deliver a good arguement that can stand on it’s own and the “owner’s” merit, then you should give the game away….after all, on an “opinion site”, surely it is de rigueur to write your own opinion, and not someone else s.
    Mid you , I did put up that link to Richard Burton singing “Camelot”…that’s one thing I will not claim opinion on…; my singing!

  210. jaycee June 25, 2014 at 10:02 pm #

    I will extrapolate on my above post and say in my opinion, that is where the late Mr. Ray Evans was mistaken….;in how to win an argument…I say, it is not “facts” that win an argument, but rather rhetoric…most group discussion is moved by emotion rather than scientific fact…because such “facts” as we see here every day, can be “bent and twisted and turned on their heads”…the only “sound, solid ground” left to stand on is that of persuasion…if you read Plato’s ; “Phaedo” (The last days of Socrates) will witness such persuasive argument that can turn a certainty first into doubt then into a 180deg. opposite…..BUT!..if Plato is too much for you, I could suggest a short skit of “Yes Minister” where Sir Humphrey A. gives that understudy guy a lesson in “How to win an argument” with no facts at all!

  211. gavin June 26, 2014 at 7:10 am #

    sp; In my posts on this thread I gave you the bare bones in searching the available literature on climate change science. In some cases I linked to MSM on popular topics such as local council discussion re the vexed issue of exposed coastal real estate to illustrate the growing concern given the hundreds of letters and papers stemming directly from SLR research, polar ice movement etc. My point being the general public needs to rely on somebody in authority most of the time.

    Another point is the broader MSM (with the exception of the Australian) won’t repeat non-scientific speculation or dogma regarding AGW but I don’t expect you guys to appreciate that after crying WUWT, Jo Nova and notrickszone as your source. My point again, writers on those sites are not from any engineering like disciplines. BTW creative design depends on both experience and imagination in regards to models, evolving measurements and routines.

    In my retirement I reckon it’s up to the next gen of practitioners to be both broad minded in their own observations and conclusions and respectful of their peers opinions and research. On this point as I have often stated, I won’t do your work in developing the maths and physics to compete with past or present peer review.

  212. gavin June 26, 2014 at 7:20 am #

    SD; analyse please and give us the story.

  213. spangled drongo June 26, 2014 at 7:47 am #

    Here, you can work it out for yourself:

  214. Debbie June 26, 2014 at 8:11 am #

    It depends on the basis of the argument or the point of contention.
    If we’re talking purely about human politics I agree with you.
    ‘Yes Minister’ is a good example of art imitating an aspect of life. . . as in politics & bureaucracies.
    However. . .Ray Evans was not talking about politics.
    If we’re talking about the natural environment then facts do count. The environment doesn’t respond to political rhetoric. Neither does it seem to cooperate with statistical trends

    Humans can and do influence the local environment/weather/climate. . .but despite all the rhetoric by the political environmental movement. . . the environment doesn’t care who wins the rhetorical, emotional argument and has no interest in proving one side of a political rhetorical argument is either right or wrong.

  215. Neville June 26, 2014 at 8:26 am #

    Well at least JC now admits that he doesn’t believe that facts and observations play any role in this debate.
    IOW he believes it’s BS all the way. And Gav doesn’t believes that SLR is little different today than the last 100 years.

    We’ve supplied about 40 recent studies that show either SLR is about the same for the last 100 years or a deceleration since 1950. And the 2014 Leclercq world glacier study also shows a slowing in retreat since 1950 as well. What more can we do?

    BTW it looks like big HIPPO Gore has made his OZ sponsors look stupid and totally confused the numbskull Fairfax press.
    But boy they’re all good for a giggle.

  216. gavin June 26, 2014 at 8:50 am #

    I could be mildly amused with this slant on our Fort Denison tide gauge records because it should have been anticipated that Watson’s peers had other ideas.

  217. Neville June 26, 2014 at 9:00 am #

    The Hannah et al NZ SL study at a number of locations also shows a SLR of 1.7mm p.a or 17cm a century or about 7 inches.

  218. gavin June 26, 2014 at 9:29 am #

    Nev; I believe this extensive research paper is beyond your comprehension

  219. gavin June 26, 2014 at 9:36 am #

    Nev, Mate, let me immediately take back my last comment, your link to is nothing short of an amazing progress.

  220. Neville June 26, 2014 at 10:26 am #

    Well it’s clear that Palmer is a fool , but HIPPO GORE is an even bigger one. The Bolter can’t believe the sceptic’s luck. Here’s his summary of a sceptic’s paradise. I hope he’s correct..——–

    It is bad that Palmer will keep the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and (probably) the Climate Change Authority, and it’s alarming that he wants at least the framework created for an emissions trading scheme.

    But it is very good that the emissions trading scheme won’t actually get off the ground under the conditions Palmer proposes.

    And it is beautiful that Palmer is against Tony Abbott’s direct action policies as well, as are Labor and the Greens.

    This means we could end up with a sceptics’ paradise: no carbon tax, no prospect of emissions trading and not even Abbott’s $2.5 billion direct action schemes. That is a huge win.

    Thanks, Clive.


    The Sydney Morning Herald is fooled:

    At last welcome signs of a positive approach to climate change… The key proposals put on the table by Palmer United Party leader Clive Palmer on Wednesday evening are based on a rationale the Herald has pushed since last October …

    Mr Palmer revealed the three incoming PUP senators who in effect hold the balance of power would vote to scrap the carbon tax, due to rise to $25.40 next week. Crucially, PUP will only do so if it is replaced with a dormant emissions trading scheme with the carbon price set at zero – as the Herald has suggested – until Australia’s trading partners implement a similar scheme.

    False. The scrapping of the carbon tax is not conditional on replacing it with an emissions trading scheme.


    Once again, the question: what the hell was Al Gore doing at Palmer’s press conference. Why did the great global warming guru help to sanctify a press conference called by a coal baron to announce the destruction of Australia’s climate change policies?

  221. Neville June 26, 2014 at 10:30 am #

    Gav I’ve been linking to Wiley online for ages and I got there through many of the sceptic blogs. I linked to this study and others months ago. Do try and keep up.

  222. spangled drongo June 26, 2014 at 10:38 am #

    Give up gav.

    What your link is confirming is that the latest data in 2006 is the same SL as 1906 and the last 60 years of max ACO2 is when the least SLR has happened.

    Also that last period is when tide gauges have been most accurate.

    Exactly what I have been trying to get through your head for years.

    Try not to obsess that SLs have been fluctuating over a wild 2.5 inches since the 1880s and wake up and smell the roses.

  223. Neville June 26, 2014 at 10:41 am #

    Gav that study at your link includes all the coulds, maybes, possibles etc that any warmist extremist would hope for.

    But this 2012 study is unaware of the Leclercq et al 2014 world glacier study that shows a slowing of retreat since 1950.
    And your study doesn’t show much confidence about a positive contribution from Greenland over the last century either.

  224. Neville June 26, 2014 at 10:50 am #

    More on HIPPO Gore’s stupidity. Fair dinkum you couldn’t make this stuff up.

  225. spangled drongo June 26, 2014 at 11:37 am #

    Yes, Neville, Palmer is the greatest snake-oil salesman this country has ever seen.

    He has both extremes onside, playing them against the middle and they are both too dumb to see the contradiction – or they both hate Abbott so much….

    Mind you, our dear Aunty is so desperate to whack Abbott and the Coalition they’ll jump on any horse, even an outlaw.

    When are we going to see an enquiry into the ABC and its incredible bias!

    And it shows you just how desperate Al is getting lately.

  226. Alan B. Goulding June 26, 2014 at 12:54 pm #

    Poo’d in the nest JC?
    Well there could be an element of truth in that JC, and nowhere more obvious, than, Greed is good, Wall st. The home, of extreme capitalism?
    And given we’ve made such a mess, and quite grossly overpopulated the planet, it behooves us to find a way to reduce population pressure, without resorting to criminal neglect of the worse off, or adapting Nazi like final solutions!
    We’ve always solved overpopulation pressures with migration!
    You should laugh at a possible warp engine J.C. What’s your alternative?
    [ Maybe we could migrate to the stars with steam. More coal J.C, more coal, get busy with that Mexican banjo, we need more steam for the lift off!]
    I suggest that migration still remains the best and most humane solution.
    Water the Sahara, i.e., and you immediately have a safe haven for many millions, and there is similar desertification in northern Chile, and indeed, our own arid heartland.
    We have a 1.8 trillion super fund invested offshore, which arguably is enough money, if invested here, to build a gas grid, rapid rail links, and an inland shipping channel. All income earning propositions!
    A visionary inland shipping canal, would;
    #1, relieve much of the shipping pressure now threatening the great barrier reef.
    #2 quite massively shorten the distance, between us and our principle Asian markets. [It’s the economy stupid.]
    #3 Massively reduce the fuel and energy expended, doing just that, particularly, if we connect our rapid rail, two tier, container carrying rapid rail freight links, to roll roll off, very rapid turn around, ferries. [It’s the economy stupid.]
    #4, use the canal, as an endless reliable source of water, to grow, salt tolerant crops, [bananas, coconuts,] or those that need the help of membrane coated, ag pipes. [It’s the economy stupid.]
    #5, create a second canal that eventually links with the end of the first, and then uses, very huge twelve hour tides, [approx,] and lock gates, to keep the water and current riding shipping, moving around. [Ditto.]
    . #6, build our own national fleet, of submersible, nuclear powered shipping, to operate the aforementioned bulk shipping service. [Ditto.]
    #7 open up and develop the inland, with new cities, new farms and new industries, and a ready built highway, to carry the products and produce created or produced there, to the rest of the world. [Ditto.]
    Knowing as we invest our own super in all that, we are investing in what remains arguably, some of the most profitable business model ever created.[ And ditto.]
    Norway already builds semi submersible giant roll on roll off ferries. and it’s not a huge technological step, to fully submerse them at say, periscope depth.
    The advantages include a virtual armchair ride, in any conditions, making such a service, the most reliable anywhere, and the safest from pirates/terrorists.
    Nuclear power, has already established possible speeds of 50+ knots in already dated submarine technology, which compares very favorably, with the average 15 knots, best for current bulk shipping.
    And nuclear power, will mean, we only have to refuel, around once every 25 years! [And ditto yet again.]
    As for poo, well given you seem to be a self declared greenie?
    So why aren’t you emulating impoverished Indonesians, and running your house on it?
    A bit of steel wool in the airtake, is all you need, to convert an old diesel generator, into a biogas powered one, and a simple bladder, will store most of what you need, to overcome, the stop start norms of household power.
    And if you can handle a welder, well, a digester is almost child’s play to create?
    You seem very adept at bagging everybody’s skills or contributions?
    Could that be, because your just don’t have any worthwhile ideas of your own to contribute?
    Except say, leave it and or, lock it up. Eat mushrooms not meat!
    Destroy the dams and return the world to forested habitat, suitable for everything except we humans,?
    And then only allow a few of us to flourish, in hobbit like hamlets? Green green, I’m going away, to where the grass is greener still!
    Is that you J.C.?
    Alan B.

  227. spangled drongo June 26, 2014 at 1:46 pm #

    Yes Alan, JC is tryin’ ter git over, on the other side:

    Don’t you tell me, “Get to work at nine”;
    Gonna do things in my own sweet time.
    I’m movin’ over on the other side,
    Movin’ over on the other side;
    Come on and follow me;
    You’ll be satisfied.

    Where the grass is green,
    We’ll step ashore;
    And the air is clean,
    So weep no more.
    Leave your troubles far behind,
    On the other side.

  228. spangled drongo June 26, 2014 at 1:50 pm #

    Gav tried it years ago but he found he had to try and get back.

  229. jaycee June 26, 2014 at 4:26 pm #

    So this is where you mob of trogs’ have been hiding out!!?

  230. Neville June 28, 2014 at 7:50 am #

    A new study has found that the inter glacial 400,000 years ago was much warmer than the Eemian interglacial and of course much warmer than the Holocene climate optimum.
    SLs were between 6 metres and 13 metres higher than today.

  231. Alan B. Goulding June 28, 2014 at 12:33 pm #

    There is one thing I’m really worried about, as a future possible environmental catastrophe?
    And that is a recently discovered, massive fresh water lake, in Antarctica?
    The ABC report mentioned, that the only thing holding back this ginormous body of water, was a crumbling ice wall, and one that seems to be getting thinner by the summer.
    I don’t know what anyone posting here knows about hydrology, and what sheer weight of water is capable of doing!
    And to enhance that worrying, is the claim, that this one body of water, if released, is enough to raise SL by as much as 3 metres?
    And given just how much of our coastal plains, the home of most of our capital cities would be very negatively affected, I think we need to look at ways, to strengthen that wall!?
    Others have postulated, we could reduce atmospheric carbon, by capturing it, in man-made devices and then burying it.
    Personally, I think that is a daft and extremely costly notion, that won’t necessarily permanently sequester Co2. [ I feel the earth move under my feet, I see walls crumbling down?]
    We have always been able to remove Co2 as dry ice via, the fractional distillation process. i.e., compressing then rapidly releasing pressure, turns Co2 into dry ice, which is extremely cold.
    Some have suggested, we use ships and extraction processes, to remove carbon from sea water.
    I prefer, more natural means, like say growing oil rich algae, in sea water, where it flourishes, and it gobbles up 2.5 times its own bodyweight, in carbon.
    Moreover, it can be made to virtually double that bodyweight/absorption capacity/oil content,every 24 hours, under optimized conditions!
    And some types are up to 60% oil, and produce naturally occurring, ready to use unrefined, superior diesel or jet fuel!
    That said, and given we have the natural means at hand to reduce this carbon content over time, and with economies of scale, algae based oil production?
    I think we should pump considerable dry ice in front of the reported wall, to make much more ice in the ice wall, and seriously harden it, given what three metres of sea level rises, would do to us and our economy, [70% destroyed!]
    I don’t believe, it would be an entirely unwarranted investment.
    Perhaps we should be sending ice makers, instead of the usual plethora of ice breakers?
    During the last enduring and disastrous drought, the only thing still thriving in the Murray /Darling was algae.
    So perhaps it wouldn’t be such a bad idea to grow some there, as viable oil rich cash crops Crop, which, i.e., only require 1-2% of the water of traditional irrigation.
    And oil production on a large scale, would completely rescue the local economy of that region, and replace considerable, and increasing costly oil imports.
    Extracting the oil is a simple as sun drying some of the regularly harvested material, and then crushing it.
    It only becomes seriously toxic if allowed to die, and I suggest, so would you or I! The ex-crush material, might be suitable as fodder,or for ethanol production.
    Algae even prefer nutrient rich effluent, which they clean, and would be far better than sending millions of annual tons of it out to sea, were it does nothing but harm to the marine environment!
    Growing our own solves so many multiple problems ,the wonder is, why aren’t we already doing it!
    Surely it couldn’t be anything to do with government intransigence (Ardmona)or lack of political intelligence? Or could it?
    Or is political intelligence, much like an English country Gentleman, just another outstanding oxymoron?
    Alan B. Goulding

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