And that should have included a hat tip to James Mayeau for the link to the image, and if your on Twitter befriend @TheRedRag.
And my new year’s resolution might be… more satire.
Whooppee doooo a new study shows that the models are wrong. Trouble is the models are not extreme enough and should show a lot more warming by 2100.
Particularly this new clouds study by UNSW says the lower temp range in the current modelling is wrong and should be higher as well.
Just have a look at the current WAY TOO HIGH modelling of temp compared to REAL OBSERVATIONS. At the link.
Anyone remember silly Hansen’s A B and C scenarios in 1988 that have all failed miserably?
Jo Nova has one of her best posts ever, highlighting Maurice Newman’s unprecedented hard hitting article on the front page of the OZ.
Newman pulls no punches and gets stuck into all the fraud ,corruption, exploitation and lies employed by the CAGW industry.
Jo is correct , there has never been such an exposer of this taxpayer funded fraud on the front page of a major daily in our history.
He is currently Abbott’s link to the business world so we can only hope that some of this honesty rubs off.
THE MODELS ARE RIGHT! It’s the bloody temperatures that are wrong. Bloody conspiracy!
I shop lifted it from a comment by Eclectikus @
But mi casa es su casa, Jennifer. Hugs and kisses and a happy New Year.
Damn glad 2013 is over, to tell the truth.
Hi, guys!….Say!…great news that “climate change” is no longer happening..saves me trying to find new places around the house to place my next garden…the sun and hot wind doing so much damage in the last few years…I thought it was a fact of climate change over the last couple of decades that seemed to shift Goyder’s Line sth. west a couple of kilometres!…but you guys now tell me it’s just “weather change”…That’s great!!….I can now pass on the news to the local cockys that it was just the weather that has marginalised their farming land and not to go broke or diversify or walk off the land as “jennifermarohasy.com” et all, assures me that all is well!…a return to regularity is just around the corner…quick!…go tell the bank manager and the crop insurers!
Jeez!…it’s good to have you blokes around to give help and assurance when the stock goes hungry, the aquifers go dry and the wind lifts the top-soil to Sydney…oh, sorry, I’m being misleading…the top-soil really migrated years ago…that’s why the crops are failing, the banks are skeptical and the farmers are getting out and the towns are falling into rack and ruin and we here, far away from you sour-milk sipping make-over queens , are making plans for future-proofing our districts against the rising temps’….Oh shit!…MY MISTAKE!…falling temps’…ie; falling from 50 deg’+ to 49 deg’+…god! I nearly fell into the “warmist” trap!
Oh well!..Happy new year..watch out for those snow drifts (I certainly will here!) and stock up on those rubber feeding nipples you can put on the end of your “pacifier bottles”…but then..you probably already have such!
Geeeezzzzz Jaycee so just tell us how to fix all of your problems? I mean if you don’t like climate change then move to another planet, we can’t help you here.
This planet has been experiencing NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE for billions of years , or hadn’t you noticed.
I can guarantee the last 30 years won’t be like the next 30 years or the next after that. If you think you can change NATURAL CC I’d like to know how you’d do it?
The surprising thing about Jaycee – who is strangely familiar – is that he knows about Goyder’s line and has lived in Oz…and still acts surprised by drought. Go figure. It’s like when Commissioner Norm Allen expressed shock on hearing that prostitution was occurring in Kings Cross.
I could tell Jaycee about 1902 and past droughts but I’m betting he’s another one of those who think that stuff which has actually happened is “anecdote” and stuff which hasn’t happened yet is “science”.
Anyway, Happy New Year to all, including our farmer’s friend and mattress irrigator Jaycee. You’ll be sweet, Jayc. If the Qld drought breaks there’ll be drought somewhere else. That’s how Kidman made his money. Barring a mid-1970s pattern, you’ll never run out of bad droughts on this continent, old mate.
Give it a break Jaycee by any measure who are you trying to kid. At the most the world temperature has increased by .8 degrees since 1850. Alarmists only have the future to scare us with not the now your rubbish is about natural variability. Read on what has happened in the past like the droughts around 1900 the and rains of the 1940s. There are photos of camel trains and people have picnics on the bed of the Murray in 1915. Also read some literature like Dorothea Mackellar “I love a sunburnt country/A land of sweeping plains,/Of ragged mountain ranges,/Of droughts and flooding rains.” I wonder why she wrote that.
Pig ignorant Flannery gets stuck into Maurice Newman.This fool has had so many dud predictions over the years you’d think he’d wake up?
Well…there you go, fellahs…you’ve got me there on that bloody temp’ thingo!…and here I was reading the old thermometer from the Vacola bottling kit under the back verandah…and when it was reading 49deg’ last summer, I was getting it all wrong!…so when I went to check the stock troughs (strangely, it’s mostly on the hot days one checks the stock has enough water!) out in the full sun, I should have known it wasn’t around 52/3deg’s..it was only 49 /8 deg’s…dumbo me!!…done it again!..bloody silly farmers…hang on a tick!…
“HONEY!!…don’t worry about watering those fruit trees any more, I read her that we are only suffering under a “nothing unusual” climate cycle….yeah!…every fifty thousand years or so!..so don’t worry about it..they’ll be right in another milllenium or two…the kids’ll fix it!”
But yeah, thanks for that info…I’ll just SMS. my coz up there in west Qld’ to use rubber bullets if’n he’s going to shoot the stock as it will only be a matter of days before the rains come back an I wouldn’t want him to do something he may later regret…just a tick!
“Honey…while you’re down town and before they close the library, get a copy of this chic’s poem.. ; Dorothy Macsomething or other…I think it’s called : “I love Some-Bum’s country”..onyer, love!”
Well, gotta go chaps…gotta sharpen-up the snow shovel!….say!..any of you know where I can pick up a set of snow-chains?
I’m guessing Jaycee sees phantom supercells.
Hey, climate botherers, today is the the 44th anniversary of Australia’s greatest tornado. Wouldn’t you just love the same again right now, to kick off the year with something “unprecedented” which is “worse than we thought”! Bob Carr and Timmy could warn us that the Bulahdelah Tornado is the “new normal”, as Tammie likes to say.
There are no skeptics at the end of drivel hoses.
The last time topsoil went to Sydney, Global Warming was supposed to be putting SYNEYSIDERS at risk, because the dust came from near Woomera and contained radioactive particles.
So Jaycee must be a roquette farmer from Woomera. No wonder he is worrying about his future.
You would need some shady spots out there for that.
Australia has a history of people misreading place names and building things like police stations in the wrong towns, so rocket and roquette is an understandable gaff, Jaycee.
That Maurice Newman…he’s a clever bloke…must be!..I mean, look at all those jobs he’s had!…: head of this, head of that…economics here, banking there, adviser of this, adviser of that!…gor, you know….makes a bloke feel stupid…an’ here am I with only one qualification for the last fifty year or so…a stoopid dirt-farmer, fifth generation…bloody so thick I don’t know when to go out into the sunshine!….
I don’t know…what would I know about the weather or climate…or wet or dry…damn if’n I should’ve gorn to college and become a banker!…or, or a broadcaster..or a financial adviser…then I’d know a thing or two about the bloody weather….
You can tell Mr. Newman’s not a man to be fooled…why, just look at that comb-over…sweet!..while it might fool everyone else, I bet it doesn’t fool him!….some people think themselves so smart with all their cunning trickery (like a comb-over) that in the end they out-smart themselves!
Thank God for Maurice Newman!
“why, just look at that comb-over…sweet!..while it might fool everyone else,”
when you have no valid argument go for ad hom.
(abuse as the last of 38 ways to win an argument when the facts are against you:)
PS I wonder what brought this inane rant of jaycee’s on?
disappointing Christmas presents maybe?
You seem a little mixed up today,
You say you’re 5th generation dirt-farmer but you did your apprenticeship as a chippie, worked construction sites around Melbourne, love chisels, hammers, planers etc. and a Frank Zappa fan, love killing animals (about 120 in one winter).
You are a Green, ALP card carrying nut job, with a problem with the truth.
You’re not a farmers boot.
Ian Thomson (without a p) says..: “…so rocket and roquette is an understandable gaff, Jaycee.”
Seriously, Ian..can I ask if you are related to THAT Craig Thomson (without a p)…because he too is accused of becoming somewhat confused over where he spent time and money…and as you admit ; “an understandable gaffe”…..oh damn, look!…I fell for your little trap..: the misspelt word ;”gaff” instead of “gaffe”…shows I just may not be quite the person you thought I was…that WAS silly of me!….but hey!…your confusion about rocket and roquette reminds me of a Nelson Algren story, where a suspect is questioned about his running a house of ill-repute…”It’s not a brothel!” he defends,’It’s a sports and social club.”
“So who were the scantily dressed women?” the police capt’ asks.
“They were the social part”. the man counters.
“Oh, good!” the capt’ cheerfully responds, “I thought you were going to say they were lady wrestlers!”
you see?…honest confusion!
But listen, you guys…you gotta get away from all this right-wing crap!..there’s no fun here…all you’re doing is “hoping”…I’m out here in the real-world of farming and I am “seeing”…like Maurice’s comb-over, you can try to hide the actuality under any amount of bullshit, but there it is, like the brown-snake under the trough, or the red-back under the tractor seat..it comes home to bite you if you don’t take heed of it!
It’s been good fun, but you are too easy!….goodbye and goodluck! (you’ll need it!).
All the best, comrade Luke.
That JC CV of Mr Newman, reminds me a little of the qualifications of that wise, planet saviour Mr Garnaut. However, I don’t notice any little ‘environmental vandal’ contradictions in Mr Newman’s one, nor do I see anywhere that we have paid him to know about climate. He has volunteered his expertise on power bills and the like.
I suggest , as I have to others before, that Jaycee read Ben Elton’s “This Other Eden “.
Then , if he does really believe we are all doomed and rooned, he will realise that the premise-
‘Any big thing that happens in the world, someone makes a lot of money out of it and the biggest of all will be the end of the world’, is exactly what Mr Newman is talking about.
How’s your power bill Jaycee ? You should be happier doing your bit to save the rest of us every time you pay it.
JC, Hadn’t read your other comment.
You stated that your topsoil was off to Sydney , I just placed from previous knowledge, where your farm would have be. I even supplied the scientific proof.
(aka supercell’s clone)
While you’re SMSing your Coz up there in QLD. . . can you also advise him to put his steel capped boot up the behind of BoM and their new fancy dancy GCMs that they put on line in MAY last year?….because those wankers informed your coz that he had a 80% probability of a wetter than average Winter/Spring last year.
Poor bloody trusting blighter musta thunk he coulda at least of had a OK year on the farm and not an absolute bloody clunker of a seasonal drought. . . and not have to consider bullets for his stock (rubber or otherwise).
Not only that, some other wanker boffin (calling himself an amazingly similar name with amazingly similar focus) told a few of us at an earlier thread that even if those BoM people gave a 99% probability of wetter than average and it turned out to be a drought…(DROUGHT (! !) mind you…not drier than average). . . then it still meant they were right (or maybe not wrong?)
So just let your coz know that : ” this chic’s poem.. ; Dorothy Macsomething or other…I think it’s called : “I love Some-Bum’s country”.. . can predict his seasons just as well ATM.
My guess is that jaycee is from a coffee latte sipping location like Fitzroy in Vic. Maybe a candidate for the Green Party. Real farmers are a little more resilient than jaycee or they wouldn’t be in business for long. Incidentally jaycee gives himself away with that “comb over”comment . I was checking out the hysterical comments on the Guardian yesterday in response to Newman’s reality check on fraudulent science and noticed amongst the mostly brain dead comments in response to the article quite a few thought Newman’s “comb over” was a sure sign that Newman is not only a banker ( a major crime for the Guardian’s brain dead) but … wait for it…..a fraud.
No wonder jaycee has trouble comprehending the vagaries of the Aussie climate with deductive skills of that quality. A farmer? Oh yeah….. my a… or should I say pull the other one Jaycee.
By the way you are not bald with no hair to “comb over” jaycee?
I do not read the ridiculous ramblings of people like Jaycee or the predecessor Luke on other blogs. Admit it Jennifer they are your invention and it is done as some sort of twisted devil’s advocate. Give it up it is a waste of time and the latest creation raving looney Jaycee is not worth reading.
I thought JC or Luke wouldn’t try and answer my questions, just more drivel and idiotic nonsense used to cover his/their ignorance.
Just looked at a video by Ross McKitrick’s mate prof Chris Essex. Chris is a mathemetician and was a climate modeler.
He blows the whistle on the fake physics used in the models and also the Alice in Wonderland nature of the whole hocus pocus charade.
But don’t worry the IPCC have admitted that it’s all BS as well. I hope everyone has the time to look and understand the bottomless pit we’ve been throwing our billions $ down over the last few decades.
His short Q&A at the end is where he makes a number of remarks about what a con game they’ve all been playing with us. But don’t worry they’ll dream up some more BS after this hoax has been knocked over. My moneys on ocean acidification.
But at least we know now that’s it’s all been a con game and BS from start to finish.
What a pair of nongs……..time for big bear kiddies.
I see where the ” Antarctic Explorer” professor is going to “deal with the loonies, when we get back home”.
Called non-believers “flat Earthers, who believe Earth is only 6000 years old”.
Didn’t hear it, only read the quotes.
Well this particular loonie, who actually believes there have been people on this planet for possibly millions of years, ( who perhaps knew more than he can imagine ,whoever they were ), would prefer that no more of his tax money is spent on getting him back home.
He should finish his re-creation until next Xmas.
They are tweeting on about how the whole World is watching them and how they are bigger than ‘Big Brother’ . The bloody isolated insulated fools think they are not the laughing stock of the World.
They think they are some kind of heroes.
Jaycee, I had just decided that if we ignored you you might cease to be. then you gave us Mal.
Mate you and the poms should have a bit of a look.
Mr Turnbull is NOT a republican. He is a totalitarian who believes we should have a President appointed by the existing government.
Neither is he some climate saviour. He is a part time politician with loyalties to Goldman Sachs, who wishes to make lots of money in the carbon slush pit.
Oh and the LNP only exists in Queensland , where your Coz lives. It may even crack there, under the pressure of electoral losses.
Well 2014, Happy New Year
Looking forward to:
1. Abolishing the CO2 Tax
2. Abolishing the Renewable Energy Target
3. Reduction in funding to the ABC
4. An inquiry into Prof Turkeys expedition and costing $10 million wasted.
5. Seeing CAGW and IPCC slowly disappear.
Then, and only then can Australia get out of this mess the idiot ALP & Green coalition got us into.
All that plethora of abuse,
jaycee’s trying ter diffuse
the latest news of yet another
Ships icing up in Antarctica,
(hot on Gergis et al, Professor T,
withdrawn Hockey Stick paper.)
Ship listing, a costly
misadvenchure. Listing also,
bellicose claims of
globull warming –
about ter go belly-up.
Last Comment corrupted!
Neville thank you for your reference to Essex.
Early on there is this gem.
The Consensus Position
“In climate research and modeling, we should recognise that we are dealing
with a coupled nonlinear chaotic system, and
therefore that long term prediction of future climate states is not possible”
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Third Assessment Report (2001), Section 220.127.116.11 page 774
I used to be a regular on this blog but not any more. Until proven otherwise
I will assume Jaycee and Luke are an invention of JM. They should go since they
are a sort of senseless useless devils advocates. I will go elsewhere after this and
advise you do likewise. Probably I will look back in 6 months. Then J and L will be
still here with a fresh batch of protagonists. I never read Luke but Jaycee was new
but now classified as another Luke.
Sock-puppets (a single person posting under different identifies) are banned at this blog. Luke and Jaycee could be the same person, though, they do have different IP addresses and it is some time since Luke, who began at this blog posting under the name Fletcher Jones tried that on. Interestingly their IP addressees are similar to yours, beginning with the same prefix. But I won’t suggest that because the three of you have similar IP addresses you are one and the same person.
I’ve just deleted two comments from Jaycee. If everyone could lift the standard of their comments, or go for a walk.
Remember its meant to be a ‘Happy New Year’. Cheers,
The Professor of Stunts is going to deal with all the flat-earther loonies?
You know, I went to Christian Bros schools in the 1950s…and I’ve never met an anti-evolutionist, that I can recall. While there may be plenty of holes in evolution theory, of all the phony heroics of the warmists and junk scientists, the posturing as saviours of Darwin would have to be the lamest. Where do they actually get to encounter their imaginary enemies? Back blocks of Georgia, behind the moonshine still? Out where Luke learns his Pa Kettle schtick so he can be Farmer Jaycee for five minutes?
And what about the dreary Dawkinists, who try to shock you by announcing their atheism. I could walk into any pub and find you twenty atheists before opening hours. It’s like these people are courageously keeping goal long after the other team has gone home.
The Professor of Stunts needs to realise that it is false heroics which got him into this mess in the first place. He’s not Scott, he’s not Mawson. If he had to do what those guys did for one single day he’d faint.
Turney. What a useless tax-muncher.
When is Tony Abbott going to be honest about being an AGW denier? If he wants to stay in the AGW Deniers circus he should stop quibbling the truth of his views.
Oh Robert – what bunk – of course he isn’t Scott or Mawson – it’s about science and Scott/Mawson wouldn’t pass WH&S. Do you think someone has to die to earn your respect. Old codgerism at its worst. False heroics – pffftttt ! Of course you wouldn’t know the first thing about science so I don’t think we’ll ask for your assessment of the worth of the mission.
Christian Bros in the 50s eh – explains it all. So much for any hint of an objective education.
I think you should apologise for saying I’m Jaycee.
Happy New Year on our warming planet. 2013 is gone, one year less to take action before it is too late. I am in interested in the psychology of AGW. Some are really into the denial stage, They are like the ones who sat around while Vesuvius rumbled and threw up billows of ash, telling the people leaving on ships how stupid they were, and the volcano was never going to blow. There is always some like that.
Speaking of climate change in Antarctica – there is absolutely plenty – and interestingly that the signal has occurred against the trend of interannual variability. Over their heads of course.
Someone please tell Supercell about Mawson’s scientific career in mineralogy and petrology, amazingly risky geological work in the Pacific, pioneering of geochemistry, his identification of davidite, importance of his Barrier Range research, implications for Broken Hill and national wealth etc etc. His actual expedition (superbly planned) involved geology, cartography, meteorology, aurora, geomagnetism and biology.
Supe won’t believe it if it comes from me. He’ll say it’s an anecdote. (btw: We were taught evolution in 1950s Catholic schools. Did I not say that?)
Ok, ok!…I’ll play fair…since “freedom of speech” is now off the agenda….Here’s a little simple equation for you deniers to absorb on why some parts of the earth is cooling while other parts are heating up….
1) Take glass full of tap water.
2) add three big ice cubes.
3) observe ice cubes melting because of obvious.
4) notice that in proportion to ice melting, water in glass gets cooler.
ergo….as one solid part of H2o. changes structure and temperature…the liquid part of H2o. also changes temperature…..one becomes warmer, while the other becomes cooler….
Q. : Which one is affecting the other?
See!…I can be nice!
Fascinating, Jaycee. I’ll let Luke know. Although he might mistake it for anecdote or codgerism if I tell him.
On the subject of water, we should never forget that Mawson, an adventurer and conservationist who was first and foremost a scientist, did vast amounts of oceanography and marine biology as the primary purpose of his expeditionary efforts. If you want to feel humble for a bit, just read a little of the life and exploits of Douglas Mawson. On top of it all, seems he was a terrific bloke.
I’m so glad I found this site ! Man made climate change was a real worry to me but your site has convinced me that I was TOTALLY wrong.
I now couldn’t give a damn what 97% of climate scientists say. FFS they’re just puppets for the NEW World Order who want to control the masses. Wake up Aus and sell as much coal as you can before they take over !! We need to keep digging and drilling if we want a better Aus.
Gina should be PM. She is rich and powerful. Just what we need.
PS. Poes Law (not much difference between satire and real comment)
that analogy was the stupidest, most inappropriate to CC was one I heard in a long time.
That’s a really, really, REALLY good question. . . when the water & ice is encased by glass & especially if it’s inside a room.
Just as well the planet isn’t encased in glass eh?
We’d be well and truly f****d if it was!
“Oh Robert – what bunk – of course he isn’t Scott or Mawson – it’s about science and Scott/Mawson wouldn’t pass WH&S– You here today.
“The Australasian Antarctic Expedition of 1911-1914 resulted in the first complete study of the vast region which lies south of Australia and New Zealand. The three years’ worth of observations gleaned by Mawson and his men provide a unique dataset against which we can compare the changes seen today.” — Professor Turney, on HIS site.
Reconcile all that. Mawson made good scientific recordings, — Or, the whole 2013 thing is the fraud and adventure I initially said it was before the con artists left Australia.
Funny stuff this “science”, only relevant if done today .
I originally said that , if Mawson’s and their measurements, in comparison, did not ‘fit the plan’, that they would discredit Mawson’s. Are you warming yourself up ready for the Professor’s homecoming , Luke ?
Poor old Einstein, no computer records, pffft . Out the window , like Sturt and Scott.
Jaycee, that’s amazing, you have solved the CO2 induced Global Warming problem.
When do you publish, but first I have to send info to Professor Turney urgently, who’s unfortunately is stuck in rapidly expanding sea ice in the Antarctic.
Thanks, nice Jaycee for your wonderful explanation of CAGW.
WOW, you’re amazing and a 5th generation dirt farmer to boot, who loves killing animals.
Yes Johnathon W,
That one is right up there with that Hiroshima thingo that SkS put up.
The oft used analogy with medicine is yet another ripper.
A new study finds no AGW signal in the W antarctic peninsula climate over the last 300+ years.
In fact the region was similar to today during the 18th and 19th centuries. But don’t bother reading it Luke cos you’ll get confused AGAIN.
I’ll overlook the slights to my first fine example to those students of knowledge and move right on to m second equation…:
Gentlemen and ladies…please “arm” yourselves with suitable perfumes…for the gents..the Lynx (you devils!)..for the Ladies, (since you are conservative) the Elizabeth Arden!
1) Go to refrigerator, open door, look to thermostat (device with numbers and dial).
2) Turn dial to maximum.
3) go away and return 1hr. later.
4) notice fridge is much colder inside, while rear and motor is much hotter.
ergo ..evaporation has cooling effect…
Q ; Why is this so?
The perfume?….splash on self liberally and give us lefties a break when we visit you!
I realise this is an open thread but some of the posts are becoming somewhat farcical.
If trying to be funny, they fail.
If they are serious then God save us.
Anthony Watts, Johnathon Coleman, Joe Basdardi, Joe D’aleo and Ryan Maue respond to a request for up to date weather forecasting from the ship trapped in the ice.
Just shows what competent work these knowledgable people are capable of and in such very short time.
Apologies to Luke. He has emailed me wanting a correction… He was never Fletcher Jones, but he was once Fletcher Christian.
I got confused, but should know better: one is concerned with clothing, and one was once concerned with a mutiny.
Never mind Jen,
If Luke is playing silly sock puppet games. . .then it’s more traffic on your blog. . .if it isn’t Luke playing games . . . then it’s still more traffic on your blog.
Can’t really lose IMHO
Love the fridge question. . .Jaycee seems to once again not understand the other ‘forcings’ involved to make a fridge work.
Just as well the planet doesn’t operate in the same manner eh?…’cause once again. . .we’d all be f****d !
(sorry. . .it does seem to be the most appropriate description)
It is highly amusing watching the attempts to explain away why this ship is stuck in ice in the Antarctic in December/January.
What a shame they didn’t understand all this stuff about glasses and fridges before they left! Maybe they should have had a chat with Jaycee?
Give it up luke; your SAM link to the Cai paper says:
“There are many studies documenting the global warming trend and the upward trend of the SAM over the past decades2,18,26,27,28”
There has been no global warming for 17 years.
As for SAM [simply awful models], they’re still chasing their tales:
Extracting a definite AGW signal from SAM as Cai alleges; you must be joking.
I am not a climatologist, or a weatherman, but these people a very reliable in outback Australia. Maybe they are ok in the Anortic. They have to be very right for their local areas , such as the North Sea, or they would be in serious trouble.Based at Stavanger.
Debbie et al.
Luke is not playing sock puppets.
And I’ve just let a couple more Luke-Alikes through after they verified credentials, see comments just released from moderation now back into this thread.
Indeed Luke is getting reinforcements, though I gather he would prefer to be a Lone Ranger.
The Bolter has more facts on the clueless amateurs and numbskulls on the ice boat. Geeezzzzz what an embarrassment to OZ they are, about as useful as tits on a bull.
Interesting…One delivers you a simplified explanation and you go into denial, hungering for complexities!…You complain of one using the simplicity of water in a glass, yet you live in a bubble of your own creation….you laugh at the simple theory that works a fridge, indeed, rely on it most importantly for your food, yet deny the simplicity of it’s workings….
One gives you simplicity and you mock it’s lack of complex sophistication….science delivers you complexity and you clamour for a simplistic solution….I have stock on my farm that understands the labyrinth of natures biodiversity better and in a more reactive way than you lot!
Back to your cradles and your nursery…you mock yourselves!
More evidence for the Med WP and the LIA in Antarctica. Backs up Luke’s study that he couldn’t comprehend.
Yes I do prefer to work alone or with Bazza as I’m pretty good and the attention needs to focus on me.
Cohenite does a sloppy job so I’ll leave Cai till he gives a more considered answer..
But Poor Neville – he never fully reads what he graffitis from elsewhere. “A 308-year record of climate variability in West Antarctica” If doesn’t disprove AGW at all – in fact much more nuanced and it concludes –
“The record reveals a reduction
in multidecadal variability during the twentieth century and
suggests that the warming since the late 1950s has not yet
taken the system outside its natural range. This is not inconsistent
with the exceptional recent global warming, during
which approximately 20% of the observationally covered
Earth’s surface still does not show 100 year trends that are
significantly larger than internal variability [Karoly and
But what I have been saying and you couldn’t beat it into thick heads like Neville.
And bad luck for sun lovers http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2040.html
Hi Neville , thanks for the link about the expedition. Fascinating.
Now, where is this show pony intending to take the wife and kids for the Chrissy holidays next year ?
Been warm in Western Qld lately, so that would be a good spot to go find a bit of AGW desertification.
He should arrive just at the right time for the inevitable torrential rain and floods, as the drought breaks.
I suggest that the powers that be organise ahead for some army exercises or such, in West Qld next Xmas, in an attempt to keep down the cost of rescuing him.
Make sure they take a portable espresso machine , or he may perish on them anyway.
And make sure he takes Jaycee’s fridge, not one like his , full of drinkies , or mine , full of beer.
Scientists confess – climate models are wrong
Ian Thomson (without the p)…does he reasise his own irony??…: “…He should arrive just at the right time for the inevitable torrential rain and floods, as the drought breaks.”
Read it and weep!….note he talks of a DROUGHT BREAKING….yet predicts INEVITABLE torrential rain…with the drought, Ian…perhaps that rain hasn’t been quite as INEVITABLE as you would like in the past…as I said in an earlier post…you guys are just hoping…others are seeing……go home and think on it a tad!
Gawwwrrrrd Luke I didn’t say it disproves AGW just that it’s all happened before in that region.
Don’t forget I agree some warming should exist in the system , but I don’t believe in CAGW.
Looks like Karoly has made a super goose of himself AGAIN. Does this fool ever think before he yaps?
You’d think after the McIntyre blog exposure of the SH hockey stick fraud he would have the nous to keep quiet.
They didn’t ask Luke?
Roy Spencer has a first look at the new cloud study. He’s trying to be agreeable for the new year and will have to buy the study to fully investigate their new modeling claims.
Just so you dn’t think all us lefties are bastards!!
Where you conservative people are losing it, is because you are “talking down” to the lurkers…you print links to all these dodgy sites and post outrageous denial that is equivalent to denying ‘f ‘ follows ‘e’ in the alphabet!….My simple little ‘equations’ about the ice-cubes in a glass of water and the fridge are just that …simple explanations of the bigger picture..you can mock the “low-brow” simplicity, but cannot deny the truth of them…everybody knows how such things work…out here on the land, it is the most obvious of events…sweating /evaporation/ cooling, even the most basic animal knows THAT!….periods of dry and wet…AND the NOW erratic and unreliable nature of the weather.
Ok..so I played the yokel farmer for a few laughs…I do farm…so do a lot of folk..but we are not all your dumb redneck cocky…some of us have a degree of education..some of us a good reading of history…
F’instance…if you go to your Gibbon’s “Decline and Fall…” (circa 1780’s) you will read where Gibbon consulted his fellows in the “Royal Society” as to why, in “Tacitus’ Germania”, one can read of the Germanic tribes taking their entire armies, families, lock, stock and pike across the frozen rivers to attack Gaul, yet even in his time, the same rivers would be lucky to support one fully loaded wagon on the thinner ice?
Their reply was that , they suspected, the clearing of the dense forests since the Roman times had allowed so much more sunshine onto the earth that a slight warming had occured, enough to upset the past equlibrium.
Now, I can confirm just such an event out here where I live…if one places a thermometer into undisturbed leaf-litter and another in bare earth only 500mm. away, one gets a variation of between 3-15deg’s…the litter remaining reasonably constant over night and day, the bare ground wildly fluctuating between morning-noon-night. Such variation plays havoc with certain seed germination.
You know it’s true!
Their ABC does what it does best , lie by omission. Before the folly of the stuck ice ship they loudly proclaimed that these scientists were travelling to Antarctica to investigate AGW, but last night yapped on about SFA desperately trying on a massive cover up.
Just more fraud and con tricks to protect the Labor and Greens parties and yet we dole out about 1.2 billion $ a year for this massive left wing deceptive news group to lie and distort the facts.
Well JC you’ll be happy to learn that the entire planet is greener than it was 60 years ago. Everything is thriving because of the extra co2 in the atmosphere. Every wheat farmer is getting a bonus increase in his yield because his crop is sucking up this free natural fertilizer, plus wheat etc becomes more drought resistant as well.
See CSIRO research showing these facts. The Sahara is becoming greener as well (and the planet) but watch the video and you might learn something.
Unmitigated crap Neville – CO2 fertilisation below ability to detect. You’re a twit that would believe anything. Most of it is fire regime, decadal changes in rainfall, land management practices, better agronomy, plant varieties and stuff all to do with CO2. More sceptic drivel. Improving wheat drought resistance – what bs – no rain is still no rain. Liebig’s Law of the minimum.
Now Jaycee , don’t get all upset because I want the intrepid professor and his needy family to borrow your fridge next Xmas.
The torrential rain is inevitable when Australian droughts break. We get flanneries and flanneries of rain , followed by devastating floods.
Perhaps you should get out and about a bit, or ask Debbie for some photos from when the last S. Eastern drought ended. Perhaps I could show you some from when the one before did.
I realise that a poor rocket farmer would not have had TV, to watch what happened in Queensland, but your Coz would have seen it first hand.
Anyway , put up your hand to volunteer for the professor’s next junket and help prove us wrong.
All win win, you get use of your fridge and the professor does espresso science, then the tax payers of about 5 countries get to rescue you . Better still get your Coz to buy a tinny and save us all the money.
Ludicrous you lot , no shame , no gratitude, no eyes, no ears. No wonder Turney is so arrogant, with disciples like you.
A friend remarked the other night about the filthy mess left by NY revellers in Fitzroy and stated that the area is solid Labor and Green’s territory.
The Bolter has picked up on these facts and even lists the representation in the electorate. I’ve been to a few shows over the years in conservative areas and the place is almost pristine when the function is finished.
These swines fought police used the park as a toilet and a woman police officer was bitten by one of these specimens.
Even an astonished Red Symonds pointed out the big bins left around the park for rubbish collection and they were almost empty. But have a look at the photos. So called Greens and socialists don’t give a stuff about the environment.
Well luke, I looked at your solar paper which contradicts the work of Shapiro and Moberg, references 7 and 11 of the paper. Can you see the glaring difference between what your paper does in methodology and what Shapiro did?
Hey Ian speaking of drought know it all sceptics knew the drought was going to break. And knew that as the PDO had changed it was going to rain for a decade. So where has this drought come from? Where is the sceptic web site with the prediction? Surely you know it alls were on it. NOT !!
Let me get this right, CO2 levels are so high that the Planet is doomed, but not high enough to affect plants.
People such as Deb and I live among rampant rape and pillage of the land. Rednecking and boganing farming to death, but increasing agricultural yields with better land management and agronomy.
You had better hope we didn’t put a barb on top of that fence you are straddling.
Yes Luke , we knew the drought would end AND we knew there would be others . We had no idea when, but all hoped that it not be too soon. Your mates said that it wouldn’t end
Luke you really are a fool. I’ve got relatives in the wheat industry and they’ll all tell you that they wouldn’t be growing wheat today if they grew it under 1940s conditions. Of course min tillage etc helps as well.
And the CSIRO estimates a bonus of about 16% because of extra co2. Just think for every 1000 tonnes you get an extra 160 tonnes for free. And there is a definite plus through more drought resistance as well.
I noticed extra effort to distract, “reinforce” etc when Jen was talking about the dam releases a couple of years back. Noticing it again now.
Come on Ian where’s the know it all sceptic forecast site? Surely Jens neural nets would have warned you.
Neville are you mental. Wheat varieties have changed and so is agronomy. That what you are seeing not CO2. You have no yield increase from CO2 but you do have reduced protein levels which is what it’s all about. You’re a dangerous non science (as you admit) fool. A total plant physiology ignoramus. Just quote some more bs Neville you utter fraud.
Ah well, all good times come to an end and the holiday is over. They are about to be ferried 12 at a time to the Xue Long .
Bye bye bar, bye bye sauna, bye bye espresso machine. Back to the dreary Antarctic world.
puffytmd, Jaycee and Luke = Larry, Curly and Mo.
Best comedy routine I have seen in years.
Luke here’s some of the latest research that shows with higher co2 levels you can have less water, higher temp (up to 2c) and still return higher yields in wheat. This research is aided by the CSIRO and others. This is from 2013. So what are you yapping about?
You’re a twit – it’s at double current CO2 levels and you haven’t discovered the massive protein problem have you. You’re a dangerous fool Neville.
You’d be pressed to detect anything at current levels which is what you’ve been banging on about. Anyway I guess Neville is happy to stuff the protein levels of the national crop. You climate crim. And choke out our multi-billion dollar beef export industry with C4 savannas choked with C3 woodies. What an eco-vandal you are mate.
Give it away Neville before you embarrass yourself further.
Professor Turney has a cast of thousands on hand with access to all the best navigation gear and advanced warnings in the world, eg satellites images and GPS , atomic time clocks a well as models to forecast every thing under the sun.
Mawson on the other hand, had to navigate by sextant and stars and mechanical times pieces, and had the added disadvantage of not knowing what the weather was like up ahead, other than knowing that it was summer in the southern hemisphere and therefore likely to be relatively mild,cf winter
So how did they Turney’s turkeys get it so wrong. All degrees and fancy titles and strings of post nominals… and no common sense in sight. Typical.
”If we get that additional anomaly, it might even be enough to trigger an awakening in the eyes of some of our leaders,” Pitman says.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/records-melt-in-our-hottest-year-20131220-2zqrt.html#ixzz2pC9eyKjD
I thought the issue was that the globe may be warming, not a piddly island in the southern hemisphere that is responsible for 1.5% of total emissions, and in terms of keeping global temperatures down in the future there is F*** all we can do about it.
But no, Pitman and Jones and the BOM in general have to make a general beat up about it, as part of their contribution to the scare mongering caper …as consequence of which has been that we now have one the highest power prices in the world…and have lost what was our competitive advantage.
….. a consequence of which is that people have lost, and are continuing to lose their jobs
…. and for what? ….diddly bloody squat in terms of reducing the global temperatures, even if the case was proven.
Maurice Newman is right….. and the brotherhood of Karoly/Turney/Pitman/Flannery et al and their shonky IPCC are out of touch with realities and more so as it affects their own country.
Jaycee @ Jan 1 9:53 & @ 7:41 today
Who’s complaining about what in particular Jaycee?
Who’s ‘talking down’ to whom?
Who thinks that all lefties are bastards?
As Jen comments. . .you do present as a ‘Luke- Alike’ along with those attendant ‘straw man’ and ‘ad hom’ thingos and labouring under the misconception that there is a mysterious group of closely knit, well funded, well organised (almost unionised), anti enviro ‘deniers’, who flap around with one wing, have sunburnt necks , drink lots of tea at parties and who routinely attack science and scientists.
As Ian points out above, most of us are anti all that stuff and we work in the REAL environment/climate/weather/community, we treat it all with the utmost respect and many of us run and mind our own businesses. We also do not think we know everything or that everything is working perfectly.
Your analogies with glasses and fridges and where you put thermometers are fine. . . but it is rather obvious you are trying to use them to explain away the fact that these highly knowledgeable, highly credentialed people. . . who were attempting to retrace Mawson’s steps and looking for evidence of Human Induced CC but particularly AGW. . .have got themselves stuck in the ice in the Antarctic in December/January. (ie the SUMMER!)
Maybe someone needs to give you a little simple lesson about seasons? . . .although if you’re a farmer. . .SURELY(!??). . . that isn’t necessary?
Like I said earlier. . .instead of lecturing people here about such things as heat transfer, evaporation and other general very well known facts about the NATURAL water cycle and how humans measure it and even strengthen its capabilities via fridges etc. . .maybe you should have had a chat with Prof Turney et al?
You might have saved them a whole heap of grief. . .’cause you seem to be very confident that it can all be reasonably explained away and still uphold the stated purposes for the voyage?
Luke here’s the extra yields for just about every crop from 1970 – 2010. Have a look at those staple crops in this period of supposed GHG warming and work it out for yourself.
http://www.geohive.com/charts/ag_crops.aspx Wheat has doubled and corn has tripled in just 40 years.
You said to Neville:
“Anyway I guess Neville is happy to stuff the protein levels of the national crop.”
Luke, I think you may know this already, but here goes.
Wheat is grown for it’s protein level, even some wheat is grown deliberately low in protein to satisfy the market, and same with higher protein levels. There has been increases across all wheat types in West and South Australia in both yield and protein percentages.
Ever tried to make pasty with high yield flour.
The majority of growers in 2013, (excl QLD & NSW) had benefits of high protein and high yield.
Wheat is a C3 plant and the CO2 increase has aided in growth, and maintaining protein. You can check with the Grain Research and Development Corporation for latest firgures.
Also question – what species are you referring to with your C4 savanna plant comment?
Yes Neville it’s called plant breeding, pest control, agronomic technique, herbicides and fertiliser. Wake up ! It’s called agriculture 101.
Grains R&D Corporation spends a small fortune on such things ongoing. You’ll find improvements in animal industries too – not CO2 related unless you want to asphyxiate them I cannot believe the depth of your stupidity. I thought you were a sceptic.
You’ll also find CO2 does marvellous things like increase toxic compounds (cassava and cyanide) and decreases the protein yield of wheat.
You are an uncritical parrot who doesn’t think.
“There has been increases across all wheat types in West and South Australia in both yield and protein percentages.” It’s called plant breeding Dave. Tell GRDC you’re grateful for their response to the ongoing challenge ! Then look up what happens in experiments where you double CO2. Protein decreases.
You might also care to look up how many of our crop plants are cyanogenic. And what happens under increased CO2. More cyanide. Also what happens to food digestibility to any livestock fodder.
Now plant breeders may be clever people but usually dealing with these problems but genetic solutions often come with some metabolic cost. No magic puddings.
I wasn’t referring to any savanna grass species in particular. moreover a whole suite of grasses – moreover that C3 woodies will do better in water limited savanna environments than C4 grasses. C3 plants (e.g. woody shrubs and trees) can potentially use higher CO2 more efficiently than C4 due to greater water use and nutrient efficiency and greater allocation of carbon to roots.
Some of the existing C3/C4 competition we already see in savannas is also a decreased fire regime but clearly savannas around the world are thickening up with woodies, thereby reducing grazing capacity. Southern Africa, Australia, southern USA for examples. The importance of global savannas in producing protein is immense.
Neville wouldn’t ponder such things preferring to believe simple one dimensional magic pixie dust fairy tales.
There is also a very simple plant physiology concept called Liebig’s LAw of the Minimum. Basically what is limited is the limit to growth. Putting on fertiliser in droughts doesn’t help one bit. And so CO2 will only work well if water supply is abundant.
Bringing this back to Antarctica there are good reasons to see climate change impacting already on southern Australian rainfall patterns. Laugh at Prof caught in the ice but the big joke might be more on us.
Still no mention of “Global warming scientist stuck in ice” on Skeptical Science.
Strange that the most sciencey of all climate blogs would fail to report on Australian Antarctic Expedition experiments and their comparison to Mawson’s observations so long ago when the Antarctic was supposedly much colder.
This seems a major omission for such a premium site. It seems as if the event has not occurred.
Luke – you recommend SKS – can you offer any advice why this event has not been commented on by Dana.
I mean, Pro Turney’s explanation about old ice, big icebergs, high winds, etc must surely merit some discussion from the faithful.
It seems as if SKS is ignoring the plight of climate scientists saving us from ourselves.
Is there some sort of filter that prevents people discussing the scientific merits of this expedition at SKS. Surely they cant be unaware?
Or do you think Dana and John will write a new paper “97% Scientists agree that polar ice is decreasing, except where Prof Turney and the AAE is it happens to be increasing”
I do know about cyanogenics, but my main point is that agronomy should have more research dollars. I would suggest you research your C3 woodies / C4 grasses theory better from your comment above.
The wasted dollars on climate change junkets such as Prof Turney and his rescue (still waiting) should be plowed into agriculture. There is a lot of work going on with CAM and C4 P/S pathways that may aid wheat and general grain production. It’s so easy Luke to say: “No magic puddings”,
but solutions for reduced rainfall periods, heat etc CAN be addressed with research and education.
Building windmills, and following Mawson’s trek (when BOM and CSIRO) clearly had data suggesting that this period, Commonwealth Bay would ice over. BOM have interactive maps that show more than Prof Turney was capable of looking up.
Luke, instead of pressing down the negatives continually, some great research is being hampered through the channeling of vast amounts of money to simply put it PR exercises.
Stomata closure timing in C3 wheat varieties, Crassulacean Acid Metabolism pathway GM to suit some strains of C4 food crops etc etc. So much to explore, and all you seem to want, is to PR the CAGW meme?
Have a look at Tandou research into wheat varieties (great spaghetti flour producer) and even their pastoral research is outstanding. Private research in these areas are over taking CSIRO and other government organisations because of the total domination by Climate Change Fever at the moment.
Skeptical Science is aware of the good Prof Turney.
He signed an open letter “Climate change is real: an open letter from the scientific community”
(sks june 2011 http://www.skepticalscience.com/Climate-change-is-real-open-letter-from-scientific-community.html).
Other signatories include:
– Winthrop Professor Stephan Lewandowsky, Australian Professorial Fellow, UWA
– Prof David Karoly, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne
– Prof Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Global Change Institute, UQ
Prof Turney and a “conversation with the community” … about science:
Surely SKS would want to have such a conversation?
“but solutions for reduced rainfall periods, heat etc CAN be addressed with research and education” Not according to Debs. And major droughts tend to be complete wipeouts. Off farm investment or diverse holdings perhaps the only real solution.
And in terms of viability of a cropper now makes money 3 years in 10, loses 3 years in 10 and breaks even the rest. Doesn’t take much of a rainfall shift to change the viability proposition.
It’s not MY C3 woodies/C4 grasses theory. Plenty published on it.
I’m all for agricultural research. I love it. I don’t wish to just PR the climate change theme but is is 8/10 blog post topics so when in Rome ….
sp – the most minimal literature search would give you more than enough concern about Antarctic climate change in terms of southern hemisphere circulation and its impact on Australia. That’s the most minimal search. No need to even listen to Ove or Karoly – I don’t !
” Bringing this back to Antarctica there are good reasons to see climate change impacting already on southern Australian rainfall patterns. Laugh at Prof caught in the ice but the big joke might be more on us”
What sort of climate change are we talking here? Natural or Anthropogenic? What are the ‘good reasons’ ? What would be the comparative big joke?
It seems that Mawson’s expedition had a much better run than Turney’s . . .and according to AGW hypothesis. . . this should not have happened. . .despite Jaycee’s analogies about glasses and fridges etc.
Turney et al have all the benefits of modern technology, all the benefits of the modern understanding via ‘climate science’ education and presumably a much better, modern, 21st century understanding of ‘risk management’ strategies.
You do have a sense of humour so you must see the irony in this failed expedition. . .especially considering their stated purposes.
DaveMyFace has highlighted one of those ‘peeves’ that ‘most producers that I talk to’ have with CSIRO and BoM. It’s all about focus and the sensible, practical, productive use of expertise and public resources and what the public who would need to use this public service, would consider a public service.
Did you happen to catch it this time?. . . as you have managed not to catch it after numerous attempts from others. . . including me.
“It is quite stressful… I miss banana and peanut butter milkshakes… I’ve got this really thin, small bed… I’ve hurt my back… I jammed my leg in the door last night… And it’s only going to get worse… Stranded in ice. Oh, God I’m going mad.”
– Guardian journalist Laurence Topham from the ice-bound ship.
Xue Long is again icebound, so no evac yet. I have just looked at the 10 day forecast for Commonwealth Bay and the weather is going to deteriorate after tomorrow morning, with high winds, (and not from the dirction they want ), snow and sub zero temps.
One of the features of little ice ages is the unreliability of summer conditions.
This could yet become a nasty situation, with other crews having already put themselves in danger.
That ship must be starting to make some scary noises by now. Turtle should rot, but I fear for his children and any other innocent victims, including those other crews.
Very easy for a news reader to rattle on about a barge transfer to Aurora Australis, but it will be neither easy , nor comfortable.
I dont listen to Karoly, et al either.
But what about SKS Luke – is possible they are unaware of this event, or do you think they are just continuing with the usual AGW propaganda and alarmism?
Surely a serious science site like SKS would want an open discussion on a matter like this.
Luke here is the paper that I probably read and picked up the reference to co2 levels and wheat yields.
This is the 1997 Mayeux et al study and pages 276- 277 ( or 9-10 on counter) has the heading “Historical wheat yields and co2.” This is referring to world wheat yield increase and the USA.
I think you may have missed my point again.
As Deb said, it is the dealing with CSIRO and BOM has over the last 20 years that has become a problem, even to the extent that the agricultural, pastoral, plant physiology etc research has nearly become non-existent. CSIRO can now only give out info on CAGW and it’s effects, nothing at all on programs to solve the heat, CO2 increase, ground water content etc.
Since the 1990’s the CSIRO gave away some of it’s best research into pastoral grasses (native C4) along with studies on ONE element that is in abundance everywhere in Australia, yet is a micro-nutrient to C4 and CAM plants only. Today CSIRO would not even know what this element is unless they were told. China, Russia and the USA are now leading this research, where as Australia was at the forefront in the 70’s and 80’s. It is this new wave of Climate Change madness that is changing the research face of both BOM and CSIRO.
Tell me Luke, the budget for CAGW related papers compared to non-related CAGW papers in the Agricultural and Pastoral side of science in Australia? I’ve got the figures and it is criminal to the point where grants are totally biased toward CAGW only.
I am disappointed so much of your obvious intellect is channeled only toward the Global Warming PR side. Sometimes following the herd may blind your thinking Luke.
“What sort of climate change are we talking here? Natural or Anthropogenic?’ Oh see about 100 posts from me on this Debs. Or perhaps you could help yourself – try Antarctic climate change SAM southern annular mode circumpolar rainfall decline Australia GHG stratospheric ozone depletion Cai Thompson Solomon Van Ommen and so on …..
It’s not that hard if you’re serious – oh but I forgot – you’re not. Silly me
Nicely googled Neville – you’re improving – but tell me how much are you going to put a number on agronomic and genetic improvement in a climatically variable not always well watered Australian field situation ? Where’s your estimates?
The paper you cite is a growth chamber experiment and even the authors well know about genetic and agronomic improvement themselves. But let me be precise – I’m not saying that CO2 doesn’t affect plant growth – I am saying that I reckon you’d be hard detecting a yield effect in the field at current levels and separating it out from the noise. Additionally because different species will respond differently e.g, C3 C4 CAM etc how whole ecosystems adjust and adapt is complex and also leaf chemistry like protein levels and cyanide make for an even more complex situation at the plant and species level. It’s not just magic.
DaveMyFace at 3:44 – yep agree totally on CSIRO’s departure from agricultural research and perceived future value or multi-factor productivity risk.
However that’s the decision of management who set research priorities not individual scientists.
Just because you lament that prioritisation doesn’t mean that the scientists employed looking at all manner of AGW research are corrupt or poor at their job. Doesn’t follow. Presumably you’d hope they research what they were employed for. CSIRO is not some free range university.
And looking at CSIRO’s flagships they’ve prioritised more than AGW issues http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships.aspx
If you don’t like CSIRO’s priorities blame the rise of managerialism in science and thank Harvard Business School for that. However if you look at what Australian’s want – the a good contemporary example would be the Qld LNP’s Queensland Plan. It’s statistically a robust sample of the entire state. I think you’d find CSIRO’s priorities do line up fairly well with what that sample of Queenslanders are saying.http://queenslandplan.qld.gov.au/visions/assets/qld-plan-working-draft.pdf I wouldn’t be surprised if other states would find similar.
As for following the herd – that’s what you guys are doing – scepticism is very popular and following what the AGW celebrities are saying seems to be the preoccupation of the blog. There’s much more to it than that. Like a whole ongoing research effort and literature. How trivial really.
Dave – see page 20 and 21. http://queenslandplan.qld.gov.au/visions/assets/qld-plan-working-draft.pdf
I don’t agree with the renewable energy actually. But anyway that’s what a representative swag of Queenslanders want for the environment. You can check other areas like productivity and human health and see how CSIRO might line up (mindful of course that they have a national not state focus but perhaps regional).
So, if I recall your 100’s of posts Luke. . .you say anthropogenic?
Pleased to see you at least partly caught the message re CSIRO and BoM.
Extra funding has been put in to both these organisations over the last 10 years. . . yet at the same time quite large regional offices have been denuded of excellent people. . . so where has all that extra funding gone and for what purpose/result?
Can I suggest you return to the other thread where I did try to restart the conversation a few hours ago?
Looks like they’re finally getting somewhere.
Lucky this didn’t happen to Mawson.
Increased funding? Say what? Debs don’t forget reduced budget. And the answer would be metals and nano-tech.
In the absence of knowledge, it’s nice to have some rough indicators. Ice cores indicate that warmists and coolists couldn’t have picked a tamer era to find proof of their dogmas in the Antarctic. When you compare the huge increase and plunge in continental ice in the 13th century to the fluctuations of more recent times there’s no contest.
By refusing to see climate as more than a brief “trend” from which one can extrapolate wildly we refuse to see climate at all. There is no “normal” to which Antarctic ice can return. However, if you are looking for that great fetish of climate dogmatists, the “extremes”, you are searching in the wrong half of the last millennium. Antarctic continental ice – which represents much of all the ice on the planet – has been gently up and down since the early 1800s compared with more radical “trends” in preceding centuries, at least according to what indicators we have. (Not that it means a bloody thing now, since nobody knows a bloody thing about the causes.) Mind you, the Antarctic is a great place to go looking for “climate change” in any era. You’ll get plenty!
Incidentally, if you try to correlate any of that with the sea level rises which were most marked between the late 1700s and the 1860s, you will be better as a pure speculator tossing money on James Packer’s new roulette wheels.
It’s tragic..really tragic…I’ve been catching up on the posts and I see Luke is up there on the barricades, beating back the barbarian hordes!…But hey!…tell him he’s dreamin’.
All these stats and links about new grains and cropping yeilds that are going to save the world and damn climate change as a boogie-man…..you’re mad!…stark raving mad!…who’s planting these crops?…not the small farmer…not the family farm…since Vitera took over some of the handling business from Grain Corp’ around this area and many others..the silos have been closed and the locals have to truck their grain many kilometres away…the big corporate farmers of the sth-east and the Riverina and west coast have , by “pre-selling” their effing huge monocrops, locked in the price of grain so that unless you are a part of a coop’ with an agent, you are buggered!…and with the marginal areas losing percentage over the last few decades DESPITE new developements in grain technology (how many farmers can affort the tens of thousands of dollars per tonne for “patented” seed?) so that when your chances of success start to run at fifty/fifty over a decade, you go to the bank looking for an overdraft and he asks : “What’s your chances this year?” and you say 50/50…he’s gonna reply ; “My bookie says that when a horse has a 50/50 chance of winning, you have to talk to the jockey…how’s your jockey?”…you get my drift…..
No rain..no grain…simple equation…the small farm is buggered, the family farm is buggered…don’t believe me..go talk to Ian (fridge magnet) Thomson (without the p)…he is alert but not alarmist!…or I see Debbie has her finger on the economic pulse…”Debbie Does Dollars” !
But hey!…don’t let that stop you…go ask Bolty…seek out the oracle..worship the idol…but can I suggest you buy a 5kva. gennie and have it ready to plug into your house when the wild weather starts….you’re gonna need it!
Luke according to that study of Mayeux et al the increase in real paddock wheat yields (because of co2 increase) is much higher than my estimate.
The Idso brothers also reviewed that study and came to the same conclusion.
Don’t forget this is their specialist area, Keith is a also an agronomist in plant genetics and Craig is an agronomist,climatologist etc.
The study gives estimates for world wheat increase and USA increase over a long period.
I suppose some of you denihilists have noticed that the remnants of cyclone “Christine” has tracked across to Sth Aust?…I see it is projected to make it to the east coast by the end of the week!…I had a joke with a mate that it would raise a few eyebrows if it reformed in the Bight and hit Adelaide….but hey!…from west to east..that’s gotta be a record of sorts!…are you getting that gennie ready?…I would if’n I was you!
I’ll try to be polite here.
Your comments are wrong and offensive. No need to resort to same old beat of the DRUM.
The only grain you know is in timber, please name the top 3 varieties of wheat and their Yield/ protein ratios from Victoria in the 2013 season? See a pattern here?
5 generations of dirt farming Jaycee, THAT is the reason for your failure, you are the 5th generation. No knowledge of what is happening in the Grain industry world wide. CSIRO a help? NOPE. BOM a help? NOPE.
You treat each year as 50/50? Good grief, you couldn’t even get a job driving the truck with that attitude. So negative in all aspects Jaycee and abusive. For you the glass will always be 1/2 empty. Adaption in your plans, maybe some land management plans, even as Luke suggested, have a look at the LNP QLD 30 year plan. You can’t wait for the cash to roll in without investment in the environment. That’s why some hobby farmers and Greenies are the worst farmers and cattle managers.
Try to get positive, argue your case, but talk about what you really know that could help the industry. Do you know suitable timber (eg. cabinetry, structural etc) species in Victoria? How about giving Jennifer a list so it is available for others to research.
Be positive for a change.
“I’ll try to be polite here.”…….Dave’…with a nom de plume like yours, THAT, would be prudent!
You say this:
“from west to east..that’s gotta be a record of sorts!” So you haven’t even looked.
Well go to http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/cyclones.cgi?region=aus&syear=1906&eyear=2006&cyclone=all&loc=0
You may learn something here Jaycee. Which most recent Cyclone crossed the WA coast, then passed straight through to the East Coast. There’s quite a few, so check the question please.
And Jaycee, how many cyclones or remnants of, have reached Adelaide?
You have to check the odds first Jaycee, not everything is your 50/50 attitude in life.
Have you got a plant species list of Victorian timber yet. Luke could pluck it off the web any day, but I need the timber quality perspective Jaycee. Thanks
Would you care to explain why you are so negative and angry?
It makes it very hard to understand what you’re advocating and what you think are sensible solutions.
I am only seeing petulant and negative ranting and hyperbole.
Dave..I’m a gambling man…I don’t take another person’s word as to what is a winner…but I can recognise a loser when I read them!…instead of me looking up web-pages, how about YOU tell us all (without wikepedia consultation) why you really do not see any visual evidence for Anthro’ climate change?
“Would you care to explain why you are so negative and angry?”
Well…..alright, Deb’…..Joe Stalin was too soft!
Ms. Jen, few days ago you were lamenting where the debate was, and is going.
Now, you have a picture of the ‘MV Inconvenient Truth’ stuck in the ice and tagged it under ‘Humour’.
Secret Santa has been good as this has a way to play out yet into 2014.
A gift to keep giving into perpetuity.
Also, this article made it to the #1 spot at Drudge. Don’t be deceived by the headline.
Good way to start 2014!
Joe Stalin was too soft!
Strange but I agree with that.
The rest of your diatribe is just that.
It’s not up to us to prove AGW it’s a job of its proponents.
So far I personally have not seen any sign of it.
Care to point some out please?
$10,000 per tonne?????
What’s the EPR value in your tens of thousands of dollars per tonne for “patented” seed?
What’s the variety in your tens of thousands of dollars per tonne for “patented” seed?
Did you sign a industry Standard Seed License and royalty agreement?
That’s the trouble with you Jaycee, you’re not a wheat farmer are you?
If you are I suggest a commercial wheat growers solution like: http://www.wheatgrowers.com/Grain/Grain_Prices
Amazing, just saved you a fortune, even for GM varieties.
Get off the 50/50 scale, invest in knowledge, the market, and all available tools that could aid you 5th Generation dirt farm to actually make money.
Tell you what Jaycee, I’ll do a Gerry Harvey, I’ll manage your property at no cost for 2 years, and the only thing I want is 30% of the profits, and a 5% share in the land for each year it makes a profit. After two years, it your choice?
Also to finish off Jaycee, I recommend the book “Bill the Bastar*” – had to do that in case of getting blocked. But you seem like the type of Australian that appreciates the bush, horses, animals and mankind.
Well I suppose you’ve got to give JC 10 out of 10 for honesty, but only in relation to Stalin being a softy. I suppose Hitler, Mau, Pol Pot, Lenin etc were all pansies as well?
But honestly spoken like a true-blue, groupthink totalitarian. This twit isn’t worth the time of day, a real time waster. If he’s a viable farmer then I’m an opera singer.
@Comment from: jaycee January 2nd, 2014 at 8:07 pm
” how about YOU tell us all (without wikepedia consultation) why you really do not see any visual evidence for Anthro’ climate change?”
Not that you ‘asked’ me, but my answer would be ‘because YOU can not show me ONE climate/weather the event that is unprecedented and caused by carbon dioxide.’ (with/without wikipedia)
Nor can YOU provide ANY evidence current carbon(sic) taxes have stopped any climate change.
I point to current cyclone “Christine” as proof carbon taxes DO NOT stop weather.
Manitoba Museum reports Winnipeg’s temperature as cold as surface of Mars
Oh that’s right. man made Global Warming can’t be dis-proved because this is proof of Global Warming.
Trick question from ‘settled science.’
If I remember Logic 101 correctly, it is not possible to prove a negative
“If I remember Logic 101 correctly, it is not possible to prove a negative.”…now, I bet you say that to all the girls who say ; “NO!”
Well, the tens of thousands WAS a tad hyperbole..the digit slipped on the keyboard….forgive me!??
“Tell you what Jaycee, I’ll do a Gerry Harvey…” …What?…whinge, bitch and complain?
“I point to current cyclone “Christine” as proof carbon taxes DO NOT stop weather.”
“What you said was so confused that one could not tell whether it was nonsense or not.” (Pauli)
“It’s not up to us to prove AGW it’s a job of its proponents.
So far I personally have not seen any sign of it.
Care to point some out please?”
Good to see that’s Wilksey is beyond Nova, Spencer and Lindzen. That’s what I like about this blog – the sheer extremism.
OK smarty start proving then.
No models please unless they are the topless variety!
Well, go ahead luke, prove the man an extremist and present some proof of life for AGW.
Don’t you see your irrelevance here in this comment
“Well, the tens of thousands WAS a tad hyperbole..the digit slipped on the keyboard….forgive me!?? “Tell you what Jaycee, I’ll do a Gerry Harvey…” …What?…whinge, bitch and complain?”
Tried and failed Jaycee, even Prof Turkey will admit his latest stuff up shortly, and it will cost farmers dearly through the money spent to rescue these nut cases.
Luke, tangible proof, the kind one can feel, see obseive sort, you know?
Not simply assert that “it was caused by CO2 and AGW” and if you don’t believe you are a denier !
It’s that time of year when we get the big king tides.
Today was the highest astronomical tide of the year in SEQ with this result:
Moreton Bay ~ 200 mm lower than 1946.
Gold Coast Broadwater ~ the same as 1969.
Barometer 1012 hPa.
Geeezzzzz Luke and JC even your mates in your IPCC bible are starting to wake up a tiddly bit more.
They’ve decided to quietly cover their backsides and reduce their warming predictions in the AR5 final, final, final, final etc draft. You jokers would believe anything.
Well JW against my better judgement
– the palaeo evidence – no not ice cores – THE BIGGEST clue !
– CO2 radiative physics well known and agreed to by the more serious sceptics
– A massive rise in global temperature at centennial scale – not monotonic – but not explained by solar forcing in 2nd half of 20th century
– Worldwide glacier melt (yes not 100% but heaps)
– Arctic melt
– Profile of temp sunk to depth in the world’s oceans
– Antarctic and southern hemisphere circulation changes
– Behaviour of 10,000s of species developing faster and spreading their range
– expansion of the tropics and Hadley cell
– stronger upper end cyclones
– changes in ENSO and Indian Ocean
Not a perfect story but hardly nothing …. deniers of course will try to conveniently rebut them all (cue Cohenite) but at some point the simplest facts are obvious. As soon as the IPO flips and won’t be too long now, GMT will be off again.
Neville – Monckton – don’t me laugh my guts out – I wouldn’t even be bothered reading it. Put up a serious source. Not some “lord”.
And AR5 isn’t the last word anyway. Science has already moved on.
Spangled – have you ever thought where you’re looking could be the worst place to look? http://www.oceanclimatechange.org.au/content/images/uploads/sea_level_fig2.jpg
Well Lukey the IPCC is what you all tug your forelocks to isn’t it? Don’t blame Monckton, he’s just holding the dills up to proper ridicule.
Ands that list of yours is probably near 100% natural variation anyhow. That’s if half of it has any actual facts to back it up.
BTW here’s Goddard’s post on the latest cloud study. What a nice graph.
Goddard and Monckton say no more ! Hahahahahahaha
Well Lukey can get a giggle out of even more IPCC deception and all the antarctic ice blindness from the world’s MSM, so I suppose we’ve achieved something.
But it suits Lukey’s case , right up there with his con trick Greenland graph and temp lies. But here’s some more on that MSM selective reporting on the ice ship rescue.
Before they left their ABC and Fairfax yapped forever about the purpose of the trip. It was ALL ABOUT CAGW and the changes since Mawson’s work 82 and 101 years ago.
But because of the 2-4 metre ice filled destination that stuck their ship solid in summer all the attention swung to anything but talk of CAGW. But Lukey loves it, this type of deception is right up his alley.
I reckon he might even get a job selling big HIPPO Al’s snake oil door to door.
Luke, so you believe that those parts of the ocean that your map says rise 12 mm per year just keep on doing it year after year?
And since 1946 they would now be 800 mm higher than Moreton Bay?
Tide gauges don’t support this because of course it cannot happen and it is probably just the mindless workings of the poorly initialised SL measuring satellites. Plus extrapolations.
It’s also interesting that none of the areas fall. Only remain stable or rise.
Jaycee says he can recognise a loser when he sees one.
What would he call Turney’s expedition to the Antarctic?
BTW Jaycee. . . most people know that human activity changes/impacts the immediate environment. . . like duh!. . .most people know that some mistakes have been made and they need to be fixed. . . like duh!. . .but the CAGW hypothesis and attendant political handwaving has not (NOT!) produced worthwhile results. The notion that humanity can control the global weather/climate and stop it from changing via a tax is nonsense. The climate/weather/environment has no interest in human economics, remaining in some type of benign stasis, being protected/worshiped or co operating with PR events . . .the Turney et al expedition is a current example.
Careful Spangled cos if you get him upset AGAIN about your SLR observations he’ll just call you a liar. Big worry for you I’m sure. SARC.
JC I have a few questions for you. 1. By how much should OZ reduce co2 emissions?
2. By how much would your co2 reduction reduce temp and when would we see the result?
3. How would you accomplish your reductions?
Good news about the Antarctic rescue, eh?….But back to “business”..I see that since I asked the legitimate q’ of Dave to tell us why he sees no evidence of climate change…he not only failed to answer my question…but I get a plethora of “busybodys” honing on ME to prove this and that!…geez, fellahs!..I..don’t have to “prove” anything…mother nature is doing it for me this very minute…(Aust’ the hottest year on record!)…I told you blokes before…you’re just hoping…WE are seeing!…go forth, young man (and Deb’) and look!
And Dave…thanks for that management offer, but I cannot see how you could manage a farm from your welfare housing unit in Western Sydney..also, it could risk your pension!
“JC I have a few questions for you. 1. By how much should OZ reduce co2 emissions?”
Well….if’n the entire govt’ front bench stopped breathing, it would be a good start!
Debbie?…My reading of your 7.14. comment above tells me that you are in reality a closet “greenie”..albeit a “neo-green”…would I be correct?
Well JC the Luke clone can’t answer the most obvious questions that must be asked of him? Why not, there must be ZIP evidence of any real problems?
And I thought that he was going to tell us how his co2 tax would beat the weather/climate/temp into submission, by 2050 or 2100 or 2700 or 4500 or something.
But alas just another wimpy clone who hasn’t thought about his fantasy and hasn’t got a clue.
Neville, old chap….I don’t think by 2050 there will be any need for Co2. analysis…the bleedin’ obvious will be in our faces by then!….I don’t know about the stalwarts on this blog, but I and many of those “warmists” I speak to have taken steps (which I am sure you would approve in your promotion of “adaption’) to prepare for extreme events.
Of course, if a storm of the intensity of Typhoon Haiyan comes through, I doubt there will be much any of us can do!…but I would like you all here to know…should such a catastrophe sweep through..I would be only too, too willing to offer those of you on this blog less aware and less prepared for climate catastrophy, food and shelter till you and your loved ones get back on your feet!….I want you to know that you have such a social safety-net to fall back on in times of distress….after all…we Aussie citz’…we’re all in this together.
Didn’t bother about the gennie mate. By the time the ABC was giving us the news of the terrifying approach of Christine via SA, we were experiencing beautiful soft , drizzly weather.
Christine’s moisture was in NSW already.
Not enough moisture to make the riverbanks muddy, nice 20’s temps, so the tourists are loving it too.
It is such a nice contrast from our usual 40’s temps in January, so please give us some more of your AGW. We like it.
Of course , if it gets real cold , we will need a gennie. As you should know, the dams will empty out and things out here will get very dusty here, when it’s icy.
As you probably also know, we aren’t allowed to cut firewood and your Green initiative type power bills negate any mains supplied heating. But hold it , don’t those gennies run on evil fossil fuels ?
So JC you admit there is nix we can do about it then? Like the super cyclones OZ experienced during the LIA or the mega droughts and floods experienced by OZ and the USA during the med WP and LIA?
Of course southern OZ was a much wetter place 5,000 years ago and has gradually dried out ( with highs and lows) since. Certainly Southern OZ was much wetter just 1,000 years ago.
And SLs were much higher around OZ just 4,000 years ago after the much warmer Holocene climate optimum.
So how do we avoid such extreme NATURAL conditions if they revisit us again? And we shouldn’t forget the MUCH WARMER Eemian interglacial when SLs were many metres higher and temps many degrees higher as well.
Do you think you’re starting to understand your fantasy a bit more?
False equivalencies and false assumptions Jaycee,
there is ALWAYS a chance that a Haiyan strength cyclone/typhoon could come through and of course . . .except for as much pre warning as possible. . .there is little that we could do.
That’s because we humans don’t control the weather/climate and also because the weather/climate is not slightly interested in being our friend (or our enemy for that matter).
It has zippo, nada, NOTHING AT ALL(!) to do with people being more/less aware of the impact of extreme weather events.
But unless you’re a total a/hole. . .most Aussies will always stand up and help those who have been impacted by disastrous events. . .and It’s reassuring to know that you would too. . .otherwise you would indeed be a total a/hole.
BTW. . .while highlighting the delicious irony of the failed Turney et al expedition. . .no one would like to see any harm come to those people. . .as they too have been outsmarted by a ‘weather’ event. . .and now need to be rescued.
A little humility on their part would probably be a good idea however. . .as they have cost the Aussie taxpayer rather a lot. . .but of course no one. . .unless they are indeed a total a/hole. . . would expect them not to be rescued.
And no Jaycee. . .I’m not a closet or neo anything. . .you seem to falsely assume our modern Australian society is tribal and that we all need to be identified by tribe/name?
One of the things I am/do however. . .is I am broad acre irrigation farmer from the MIA. . .so there is no need to play guessing games. . .it’s no deep dark secret at this blog.
“- the palaeo evidence – no not ice cores – THE BIGGEST clue !
– CO2 radiative physics well known and agreed to by the more serious sceptics
– A massive rise in global temperature at centennial scale – not monotonic – but not explained by solar forcing in 2nd half of 20th century
– Worldwide glacier melt (yes not 100% but heaps)
– Arctic melt
– Profile of temp sunk to depth in the world’s oceans
– Antarctic and southern hemisphere circulation changes
– Behaviour of 10,000s of species developing faster and spreading their range
– expansion of the tropics and Hadley cell
– stronger upper end cyclones
– changes in ENSO and Indian Ocean”
Paleo evidence: McShane and Wyner: here is a link to the full discussion of their paper:
Here is what M&W conclude about the use of tree-rings as proxies for temperature data:
“We find that the proxies do not predict temperature significantly better than random
series generated independently of temperature.”
The point here is that M&W reject tree-rings as accurate measures of past temperature. Within that proviso they then use the same tree-ring data Mann used and apply a range of different statistical tests to develop their own temperature reconstruction; about this reconstruction they say:
“Our model provides a similar reconstruction but has much wider standard errors, reflecting the weak signal and large uncertainty encountered in this setting.”
M&W’s conclusion is:
“Using our model, we calculate that there is a 36% posterior probability that 1998 was the warmest year over the past thousand. If we consider rolling decades, 1997-2006 is the
warmest on record; our model gives an 80% chance that it was the warmest
in the past thousand years. Finally, if we look at rolling thirty-year blocks,
the posterior probability that the last thirty years (again, the warmest on
record) were the warmest over the past thousand is 38%.”
That is, there is a good chance we have had the hottest decade but good chances we have NOT had the hottest year or hottest 30 year period.
And that is the BEST result you can get from using the tree-rings.
And please be wary how you rebut that one Luke.
The prediction from BoM GCMs for Eastern Australia in May 2013 was 80% probability of wetter than average Winter/Spring 2013. . .when that didn’t eventuate. . .in fact there was a seasonal DROUGHT (not just a less than average) in large swathes of QLD and NSW. . .you lectured me that they were still ‘right’. . .(or maybe not wrong?).
So from paleo evidence that has much lower probability scores . . .how can it therefore be either certainly/demonstrably right or wrong to the point that we can claim the ‘science is settled’ re the influence of CO2 ?
Thanks for your reply Luke.
I don’t argue about most of your assertions, yes they are assertions only, you have not provided any proof of them being actually caused by the increase of CO2 and/or human activity.
BTW the extent of the effect of CO2 on the climate is being disputed by reputable scientists, not sceptics, as being overstated, but be it as it may.
But I strongly argue about the arctic melt being unprecedented, as we clearly know that flimsy wooden sailing ships were criss-crossing the Arctic ocean in living human memory, well before the increase of CO2.
You simply cannon prove the existence of “heat hiding in the depth of the sea” for many reason, mostly because we don’t have any past records at all, and it’s nothing more than a desperate attempt to explain the lack of ‘warming’ for the last decade or so.
Behaviour (sic) of 10,000s of species developing faster and spreading their range
What does it mean? Name me just ten of those species and what they do, ten will do!
But thank you for the reply.
PS you forgot the Ozone hole, but it appears that that also has been and will be around for ever it seems, without any help from us.
A very good editorial in yesterday’s OZ, “Stuck on a ship of cold fools”, Very apt.
Good stuff Debbie and Cohers, but you won’t get an answer that makes any sense. Poor little JC can’t even offer a boo.
Listen, guys…even though coming here and teasing you on is quite addictive…I really have to go….BUT!…two things I want to thank you for…
A) I confess that sometimes I am given to scripting a bit of satire for those “leftie blogs” and I have to thank Ian (fridge magnet) Thomson (w/out the p), Debbie does dollars and Davemyface for allowing me to steal their “personas”…(Dave…that name itself was too good to refuse!)…the rest of you….sorry..just a tad predictable and boring…mabey next time?
B) Jennifer!….I told you I could lift your “click count”…now it’s time for you to follow-up on your end of the bargain……Chivas Regal 10yr. old….usual box no. ..Ok?
“In private industry the CEO responsible for such a costly debacle would be in tons of hot water by now. The fine print in the contracts now becomes important: Who was responsible for what? There are some big bills to pay.
Turney and the expedition would be well-advised to find competent legal counsel very quickly. His websites and entries are rich in excuses, denials and admissions. There are going to be lots of big bills to settle. More importantly, hopefully fundamental measures will be implemented in the future so that such similar life-threatening fiascos don’t happen again.
Sweeping the matter under the rug and attempting to laugh it off is an invitation for the next debacle. If Turney-like expeditions are allowed to continue, the Antarctic will soon turn into a junkyard of sunken ships and toxic waste.”
On the ‘rescue’ off the ship, 8 trips x 40 minutes per round-trip = 320 minutes (5.3 hours) of flight time in a KA-32 or KA 27 helicopter (Fuel burn rate of 450 kg per hour) = 2385 kilograms of Jet fuel. Add in deck time (every stop) and refuel time (10 minutes per) every other trip with rotors turning and now that figure is easily over 3000 kg. If these Alarmists REALLY loved the Earth you think they would have just slit their wrists rather than add that much CARBON to the atmosphere of mother Earth?
7800 hours total time
Those who like to farm with a green twist – and those who like to incinerate wood slowly and money quickly – might want to consider an investment in Carbonscape, Professor Turney’s company specialising in biochar. Biochar isn’t just overpriced charcoal from your weekend market. It can be an overpriced “solution” covering many acres.
Since I don’t fertilise, spray or burn, and only make enough bamboo char for my own use, I won’t be buying. But now that Jaycee has gone, Luke might want to pass on this important and exciting news to him. He won’t be far away, Supe. In fact, it’s a pity to let a mere IP address stand between you two.
Jaycee is now enacting what I believe is called a ‘flounce’ and exiting with a nice retinue of name calling, sneering and claiming he was conscripted by Jen and has lifted the tone and traffic of the blog.
🙂 🙂 🙂
It was a little teensy weensy bit obvious that it was rather an attempt to deflect attention from the delicious irony of that failed Turney et al expedition to the Antarctic.
Good luck with that Jaycee. . . he/she who claims he/she can spot a loser when he/she sees one.
🙂 🙂 🙂
This re enactment expedition (and thankfully they have all been successfully rescued). . .was definitely a fine example of a loser don’t you reckon?
Climate models have proven to be a scandalous disaster. After decades of throwing endless billions $ at the CAGW myth for a big fat ZERO return isn’t it about time we stopped?
Let’s spend our money on more R&D, better adaptation when required, end solar and wind energy subsidies, build our first smart/safe nuclear power generator and start to put a value on plain commonsense.
JC was so brief and so easily predictable it hurts. His whole message about CAGW is basically I think the climate will be terrible in the future and so we must “DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT”.
But when you ask why ,how and when we’ll see a result he grows all coy and can’t answer. A perfect match for poor Lukey, who can yap all day long but clam up in a heartbeat when asked the HWWhen question.
If the claim that the sightseeing party returned two hours late despite the call from the captain of the AS then the captain is in the clear to a great extent, not entirely because he let them go in the first place.
Two hours in the then prevailing conditions makes all the difference.
Only those fools could not see it.
I heard somewhere that they were grumbling for being taken off the ship ‘prematurely’.
Don’t they realise that if a life threateningly dangerous situation develops, it’s a lot easier to rescue 23 ppl. than 74? Even a larger helicopter from one of the stations on Antarctica could do it.
That ship could be crushed, happened before to bigger ships, hope not but it can.
Neville thinks somebody is listening to him. Get medicated you cut and pasting fraud. Neville the sour dour non fun-loving graffiti artiste who hasn’t heard of plant breeding or Roundup. Spending his days frothing at Bolta, 2GB and Watts. Evil disinformation sites for geriatric disenchanted climate crims – mostly males over 50. Sad. Probably could go kayaking in the forest with Robby.
Well, Supe, I grew my own forest. It would be nice to have a kayak race through it, but a bit expensive. A mountain bike track is in the planning.
Of course, there are zillions of things you’ll be able to do in the company of Farmer Jaycee. Both males, wrong side of forty, thinking as one, separated only by an IP address.
Eat a dick denialiti – cue the “ooooo ooooo but the RSS doesn’t show that” – but the measurements are all corrupted…… “sook sook sook”
Well we told ya so ! Not even an El Nino year….
Where’s the ice age that you promised – frauds !
Licence sceptics not guns !
Time for Robby to shake it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgZOYt5kH9Q
The ABC and North Korea have got our number. And Luke. And Farmer Jaycee, who does NOT post from the same IP as our Supercell.
Where are you Jaycee? Plucking a hog or swilling out the chickens? Milked the steer this morning? I hear Mrs Jaycee is knitting some socks to make puppets.
What grand rustic folk you are! Salt of the earth!
Who promised an ice age?
Maybe that’s what happened to Turney et al?
This is the end of the sceptics party http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASnp8VO6n3E
They need their diversions to keep their mind off that heat – IN A NON EL NINO YEAR !
and and where’s the biggie sceptic drought prediction. As climate masters of the universe you haven’t warned us?
You’all promised it was going to rain for a decade! WHAT HAPPENED. AND AND incidentally where is the know it all sceptic climate prediction site? Perhaps I missed it?
Go Agata ! What a gal.
I know you’re listening Luke because you won’t answer the simple questions. Sure after years of asking you’ve agreed it would be difficult and perhaps we could build a new nuke. Brilliant NOT.
I’ve agreed but it still won’t change the climate or temp by 2050 or 2100 or 2200. John Christy has done the maths and shown that if the world could build 1000 new nukes tomorrow it still wouldn’t make a difference.
What about our massive coal, iron ore and gas exports, should we stop that as well? I suppose we could then close down all our CF power stns and run the grid from solar and wind? Would that suit your extremist fundamentalist point of view?
The OZ economy would be wrecked overnight and our unemployment numbers would be around 35% or higher.
And I suppose we could have a co2 tax of 40% on whatever business was left and achieve zip on that stupidity as well?
Part of the plan is Labor’s policy of buying fraudulent fake co2 credits from the EU or whatever for the going price at the time. It could be 6 or 10 or 18 or 25 or 45 or 75 dollars a tonne in the future that should help to kill the economy stone dead.
Sound familiar, the above is what the Greens want for our future and we know you’re a big fan of Bandt, Milne and the Greens.
You must be the dumbest fool I’ve ever come accross and you have the hide to call yourself an educated person.
Hey, Davey Jones has got Agata decked out in BoM purple – his very fave colour for “record” heat.
I’ll bet this lot are hanging on Agata’s every word:
Pity Farmer Jaycee is out riding boundaries. Apparently he’s gone shopping for new macchiato cups and a lighter scarf for summer. I’d love his opinion. Y’all come back now, Farmer Jaycee.
More is emerging about the green morons on the ice ship. Their journal entries prove that everyone knew they were in a dangerous situation many days before the ship became stuck in the ice.
The Captain couldn’t leave the sight seeing idiots and wasted precious time waiting for them and of course by the time they returned it was too late and they were eventually frozen in.
The full cost of this moronic fiasco should be paid for by all those on board and their idiot leader should be made to account for the mess he helped create.
It seems the ships captain was aware of approaching sea ice, but the passengers were out for a stroll and came back late.
I suspect Prof Turney can expect a rather large bill from the Russian ship owner – who will pay this?
Then again, the info is from Watts and is probably nothing more than lies and disinformation.
ABC news reports of a Russian ship stuck in ice is disinformation.
Go Neil – Go David
Time to pass legislation to outlaw denialism. Concentration camps and re-programming are needed.
You can’t see the irony?
Or maybe you’re attempting to be ironic?
I just popped over to deltoid to see how they’re spinning it. . . it’s probably worth one of your drive by shootings. . .you could have some great fun there. . .they’re suckers for your current style of posting.
The real scorcher since 1915, 1939, was actually a La Nina year. Go figure.
By the way, is that creepy BoM youtube a colourised re-run of a Rumanian government announcement, circa 1980? I half expected Agata to unveil a statue of David Jones as Great Leader.
Happy NY to all.
Speaking of 1939 Robert, I have my Grandfathers old maximum/minimum thermometer. It has a mark at 122 degrees f dated 15/1/1939. Today it reached 120 (officially 49.1 at Walgett) with a howling 50kmh westerly dust storm. Could the hottest day in 75 years be unprecedented ? I think wicked Jaycee sent this ‘orrible weather from South Australia to punish your bamboo!
Dave, I guess if it was hotter in 1939 then that’s an unprecedented precedent – though around these parts you can bet on 1915 or 1993 for your unprecedented precedent. On our local news today they reported many “records” which weren’t records at all, since each was the hottest since 1939, 1993 etc. I think the klimatariat just like saying the word “record” and they think we like hearing it. What’s amazing is people who have lived in Oz all their lives and express dismay at drought. Apart from a couple of years in the mid-seventies, there has been severe drought in some part of Australia every single year. One of the worst coastal droughts coincided with the new settlements in Port Jackson and Rose Hill. Warmies are weird.
By the way, I was in Walgett for a canoe adventure around this time of year in 1978. Half the town was in hospital after a big New Year’s Eve. The rest should have been in hospital. Love it out that way: clean sandstone buildings, friendly people..and the Darling River!
Robert et al.
I am enjoying some of the satire.
“Plucking a hog or swilling out the chickens? Milked the steer this morning?”
Daaave, no computers. That’s not science, you silly redneck, bogan, Sturt believing, thing.
Dad n dave stuff mate.
They will tell you in a minute.
My advice, put that thermometer in a bank vault, some serious money will want it gone.
Sad thing denial. When it’s happening. It’s still NOT happening.
Reposted from Jo Nova.
Should I be more worried about climate same or climate change?
Er sorry the u tube language is a bit strong. (
beth the serf.
DavefromWeeWaa – both !
How much CO2 tax or price do we have to pay to stop climate same ?
I suppose we can just keep on keeping on. Luke tell us when there was a holocene climate nirvana? When was the best time to live in the past 10,500 years? Pick out a the best 1000 year period for us.
When it’s happening. It’s still NOT happening.”
You got that right Luke !
Especially when you wipe all those pre 1910 records such as Sturt’s 53c in 1828, Mitchell’s 53c in 1845, Cloncurry’s 53.1c in 1889, Bourke’s 52.8c in 1877, Walgett’s 52.8c in 1878 etc.
Look at the ROW:
Libya 1922 58c; US 1913 56.7c.
Australia 2013 49.7c; Hottest EVAH !!!
The BoM should be honest for a change and acknowledge that what they are quoting are just not comprehensive figures.
So here we are this morning , with Xue Long stuck in the ice. Aurora Australis is now stopped there on standby- Antarctic program in tatters, people down there not supplied , etc. etc
They are now hoping that the Russian ship’s insurance will cover it all. Given that the Russian ship told the Turkey to get back on and he hared off on his celebrity tour, ( after nearly sinking one of his amphibious toys in the process), The insurance company is probably already drawing a sword.
As I said before, bet we are the underwriters.
sd, I notice that BoM are now calling them ‘ normalised’ or ‘standardised’ or something, historical temps.
Someone prominent needs to climb into them over it. Alan Jones would be one.
Sad thing ice Luke. When it’s happening, it’s still not happening.
Looks like the EU are belatedly starting to grow a brain. But why should the UK govt have to be told to end subsidies for solar and wind?
A child of five could easily understand the logic and reason behind this decision. But it takes these various donkeys and morons decades to work it out.
How long before OZ takes action on this fraudulent, taxpayer funded energy generation?????? hoax ?
BOM adjustments of climate data are notorious; predominantly making it warmer and dryer. The best overview of the BOM ‘adjustment’ methodology is by David Stockwell and Ken Stewart:
This was a critique of the HQ temp network; as it was being published BOM produced the ACORN network to replace the HQ network, admitted biases in the HQ network, declared the biases had been repaired and then produced a temperature product with exactly the same trends as the superseded HQ network.
Climate information in this nation and world-wide has been corrupted to fit the AGW meme.
Antarctic ice shelf melt ‘lowest EVER recorded, global warming is NOT eroding it’
Human CO2 just not a big deal at Pine Island Glacier
“As we reported at the time, this caused BAS boffins to suggest that the observed accelerating ice flow and melt seen since the ’90s was actually a result of the ridge’s erosion and sea ingress, rather than global warming.”
The sad thing about denial is the faux sceptic frauds end up with the dead dingos donger defence.
It’s frigging hilarious.
So Spangled has the temerity to list a whole bunch of utter crap measurements from different measuring systems that are up to THREE degrees about anything else. Utter utter rubbish and all this has been gone through before.
Cohenite tries the old ACORN is corrupt line.
What the lazy money wasting Aussie sceptics could do is instead paying $100,000s for Monckton and Watts rock concert tours is to get the ADAM data and do your own analysis. Some of us have and the answer is pretty well the same.
The warming is very real. AND most importantly if you cleared the wax out of your clogged denier ears you’d know that the trend ain’t your friend. Hot extremes up. Cold extremes down.
Keep spinning it – you’re gooone ! and lazy as – no counter analysis – just rank amateur sniping typical of nefarious political fifth columnists.
Licence sceptics not guns.
🙂 🙂 🙂
ROFL! Good one Beth!
That ‘warmest ever’ stat is one of those average/mean/median things.
What do you think it is indicating in particular?
You claim that people are in denial about something:
“When it’s happening. It’s still NOT happening.”
Who is saying IT’S(!) not happening?. . .seriously????? WTF is ‘IT’ ????????
How much warmer ever since when ever?
What particular region or state or area or whatever in Australia is in danger specifically because of this warmest ever mean/median/average thing and what in particular or specifically are we supposed to be doing about it?
Or if you like:
Where in particular is this scary warmest ever mean/median/average thing manifesting itself in Australia so that we could do something specific about it?
What is the IDEAL average/mean/median for Australia anyway and how would you propose that this IDEAL mean/median/average temp for the WHOLE of Australia could be maintained ?
The overriding message seems to be that it’s all very, very worrying and we should be DOING SOMETHING about ‘IT’. . .so what’s the SOMETHING that we should all be DOING?
“get the ADAM data and do your own analysis. Some of us have and the answer is pretty well the same.”
Well then, present the results of your analysis on this blog for discussion.
Licence climate scientists; the weather is much too important to be left in the charge of the dingbats now running around getting stuck in the ice and the like.
The resident crazed weasel declares:
“Hot extremes up. Cold extremes down.”
A couple of posts by Ken, first a salutary warning about science rushing to meet news and political deadlines:
And then his sterling work on Australian minima:
This is the key graph:
Ken notes about the ‘step’ nature of the minima trend:
“I have shown (starting in 2014) how the minimum temperature record of Australia features a series of sharp step ups, followed by slow declines. I have indicated the start of these periods and the linear trend lines of each one. There may have been one in 1926, and 2013 may (or may not) be the start of another such period. They are more frequent and more pronounced in the past 40 years than in the first 60 years. This appears to show a link to natural climate forces, such as the El Nino- Southern Oscillation.
I will analyse these results further in future posts, and may do the same for maxima as well. (People are interested in maxima because “that’s how hot it is”. I like minima because they tell you more about climate e.g. if they increase faster than maxima this may indicate greenhouse warming.)”
Minimums have increased over the 20thC but not in a way consistent with AGW.
And neither have maximum temp as David Stockwell showed in 2009:
As I have said before unless a monotonic increase in CO2 can produce steps in temperature, which often include declining steps, then something else is carrying the load. But since the IPCC and BOM have predicated their research on AGW being the dominant cause we would never know if it were all left to them.
Paperboy Neville can’t even read his own press clipping. ROFL
Ian T – very a small relative growth in sea ice is exactly what you’d expect from a warming freshening Southern Ocean with an Antarctica walled off by anthropogenic circulation changes. At some point it will reverse. You could do the most minimal research but why bother?
Incidentally sub-Antarctic islands showing warming trends.
http://sea.uct.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/Richard2012b.pdf try figure 1 for some perspective
Pure predictable laziness and sniping Cohenite – you’re just laying smoke – get off your lazy sceptic butts and do your own full analysis. Stop wasting money on denier rock concerts, op-eds, unpublished waffle, and failed political campaigns and inform your alleged constituency with some proper science analysis. You’ve got the Australian glitterati of smarty pants sceptics at your side (ROFL). Get it done ! But you won’t – guerrilla warfare suits the insurgents style.
Luke claims the increase in Antarctic sea ice is consistent with AGW. At last we know who luke is, he is Turney’s publicist, Alvin Stone:
Hi ya Alvin, you dope!
Antarctic ice has been increasing for decades; it is not coming from the Eastern Antarctic because sheet ice there is increasing no declining as Zwalla et al found:
In addition air temperature and sea surface temperature have been both declining for yonks, especially SST, as described here:
Clearly there is NO AGW occurring at the Antarctic!
And don’t make me laugh Cohenite – the most fundamental and basic analysis of global temperature variability is that EOF1 is a marked centennial signal trend. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007JD008411/abstract EOF2 is an IPO like feature. EOF3 is the AMO.
The case for warming is 100% compelling and ubiquitous.
Cohenite ignores most of the work on Antarctic climate change. Don’t be so pathetic. Only a faux sceptic would try that on. Hand in your membership on the way out.
To declare no warming at all in Antarctica is arrogant nonsense http://rses.anu.edu.au/highlights/view.php?article=339
Luke you are a pig ignorant fool. Even the models used by the IPCC for SLR until 2300 show Antarctica is NEGATIVE. DUHHHH wakey, wakey.
That’s because it’s gaining ice for the next 300 years. How many more times do you have to be told?
I do try to make you laugh luke because you sure as hell make me laugh; from your WAP paper which is undated but I have seen it before:
“Using water isotopes in the ice core, it was found that warming of the Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago (Mulvaney et al., 2012; Abram et al., submitted). Although the mean temperatures experienced on the Antarctic Peninsula over recent decades are not unprecedented, the rapid rate of warming over the last century is highly unusual and is in the upper 0.3% of all century-scale trends over the last 2000 years.”
Back in the real world ACTUAL air temp over the Antarctic shows NO warming and ACTUAL SST around the Antarctic shows COOLING for a long period.
Air temp from UAH [RSS is cooler!]:
SST from good old Bob, based on NOMADS data:
Thanks for coming.
Hey Luke what caused the NATURAL warming in Antarctica from 141 to 1250? That’s 1109 years when it was WARMER than TODAY and includes a Med WP as well.
You provided the study for me so tell me what caused that long period of NATURAL warming and the MedWP?
Were the penguins and seals driving SUVs?
Neville you’re a moron – we’re talking sea ice bean brain. As usual you don’t even know what you’re reading. Unreal ! 2nd bleat – no reference so it’s garbage as we’d expect.
Now to Cohenite – the heat must be getting to him – fancy quoting the likes of self-confessed stats sill-billies like Timsdale – good grief. It’s utter crap. WRONG !!!
Warming ocean – you’re wrong again
Böning, C. W., Dispert, A., visbeck, M., Rintoul, S. R. and F.Schwarzkopf, 2008. Response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent Climate Change. Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo362.
Meijers, A.J.S., Bindoff, N. L. and S.R.Rintoul, 2011. Frontal movements and property fluxes; contributions to heat and freshwater trends in the Southem Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., doi: 10.1029/201OJC006832.
PLENTY OF EVIDENCE for anthropogenic climate change in Antarctica unless you’re a denier.
And more on warming in Antarctica
whom it may apply to
Luke, perhaps I can un-clutter your confusion, viz:
>”EOF1 is a marked centennial signal trend.”
>”The case for warming is 100% compelling and ubiquitous”
Please distinguish between centennial-scale “warming” (quoting you) which is natural and “anthropogenic global warming” (AGW, quoting cohenite) which isn’t – they are NOT one-and-the-same.
We all know there’s been centennial-scale natural “warming” i.e. you don’t have to make a case for that. But ANTHROPOGENIC global warming attribution (even if valid – looking not) is a fractionally smaller time frame. The IPCC AR5 anthro attribution time frame is only 1951 – 2010.
That’s 6 decades, sounds scary but in reality there was only actually 2 decades of globally averaged warming (not necessarily anthro either – probably positive PDO) within those 6 decades. Those were 1980 – 2000, see IPCC AR5 SPM Fig 1(a):
There was NO global warming, natural or anthropogenic, from 1951 – 1980. And there has been NO global warming, natural or anthropogenic, since 2000.
In the case of Antarctica, within the IPCC’s anthro attribution time frame (cohenite’s links), NO lower troposphere warming and NO sea surface warming (actually cooling).
You cite a regional breakdown, (“Incidentally sub-Antarctic islands showing warming trends” – except not all the trends are warming – some cooling), Richard et al (2010),
‘Temperature changes in the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere’
They state (p.12, pdf):
“The correlation between air temperature in each island and nearby SST is significant”
And they elaborate with some sea => air heat transfer mechanisms. So sub-Antarctic air is heated from below by the sea surface – not by aGHGs. Where did the heat in the sea come from? Ans: transport currents brought solar heated water from the tropics i.e. the ocean heat transfer gradient is tropics to poles.
And there’s considerable lag from the time the tropical water is heated by the sun until it arrives in the sub-polar region, see Dr Keven Trenberth’s ‘The Role of the Oceans in Climate’ (quoting Intro para 5):
“An overall estimate of the delay in surface temperature response caused by the oceans is 10–100 years. The slowest response should be in high latitudes where deep mixing and convection occur, and the fastest response is expected in the tropics. Consequently, the oceans are a great moderating effect on climate changes.
There4fore, you CANNOT impute AGW (1951 – 2010) to Antarctic warming in the same period anyway. You could be looking at heat originating between 1851 – 1910, 100 years earlier.
Geeezzzz how to you argue with a compulsive liar. Luke you dummy here’s your last reference study you linked to.
You are/were yapping about ANTARCTIC WARMING you dingaling. Why do we ALWAYS have to do your thinking for you?
And you know the study you supplied me with that shows higher warming ( than today) in Antarctica for that long period. Or is your brain starting to fail you AGAIN?
Research School of Earth Sciences
News & Events
RSES SITE SEARCH
Figure 1. The 364m long ice core was drilled on the summit of James Ross Island by a team of 7 scientists and engineers. Photo credit: Nerilie Abram.The significance of recent Antarctic Peninsula warming documented by a Holocene ice core record
Nerilie Abram1 and Robert Mulvaney2
1 Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
2 British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Analysis of the first ice core record from the Antarctic Peninsula spanning the whole of the Holocene interval has shed new light on the significance of recent rapid warming on the Antarctic Peninsula.
Over the last 50 years, the rate of warming on the Antarctic Peninsula has been the fastest of anywhere in the Southern Hemisphere, and this rapid warming has been implicated in the collapse of ice shelves and accelerated glacier mass loss across the region. New ice core research has now been able to put these short observational records of Antarctic Peninsula climate change into a geological perspective.
Using water isotopes in the ice core, it was found that warming of the Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago (Mulvaney et al., 2012; Abram et al., submitted). Although the mean temperatures experienced on the Antarctic Peninsula over recent decades are not unprecedented, the rapid rate of warming over the last century is highly unusual and is in the upper 0.3% of all century-scale trends over the last 2000 years.
Comparison of the Holocene temperature reconstruction with records of ice shelf presence along the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula, shows that there has been a strong connection between past atmospheric temperature and ice-shelf stability. If warming of the Antarctic Peninsula continues then it is likely that ice-shelf vulnerability will encroach farther southward to affect ice shelves that have been stable throughout the Holocene.
Nerilie Abram is supported by a Queen Elizabeth II fellowship awarded by the Australian Research Council under Discovery Grant DP110101161
Prof Turnley/Turkey’s messy disaster will cost us millions and is causing problems for REAL PROFESSIONAL Antarctic research this calender year.
>”And more on warming in Antarctica”
Actually just Byrd Station, Bromwich,et al abstract:
“…..long-term near-surface temperature observations are restricted to Byrd Station in central West Antarctica, a data set with substantial gaps. Here, we present a complete temperature record for Byrd Station, in which observations have been corrected, and gaps have been filled using global reanalysis data and spatial interpolation.”
On Bromwich et al:
‘Antarctic warming courtesy of Mr. Fix-it’
by David Middleton
The manufactured “record reveals a linear increase in annual temperature between 1958 and 2010 by 2.4±1.2 °C.” That’s a 50% margin of error on the reconstruction that supposedly corrected the recording errors.
I haven’t purchased access to the paper (nor do I intend to); however, the freely available supplementary information includes a graph of their reconstructed temperature record for Byrd Station. It looks very similar to the NASA-GISS graph that doesn’t show any significant recent warming trend.
The NASA-GISS data (GHCN & SCAR) for Byrd Station are in two segments: 1957-1975 and 1980-2012. The 1957-1975 series depicts a moderately significant (R² = 0.19) warming trend of about 1.0 °C per decade. The post-1980 series depicts a statistically insignificant (R² = 0.01) trend of 0.3 °C per decade.
Bromwich et al., 2012 get their 2.4 °C of warming from 1958-2010 (0.4 °C per decade) by stitching together the fragmented data sets. If I just combine the two NASA-GISS series, I get a trend of about 0.4 °C per decade…
But, almost all of that warming took place before 1988. And Byrd Station has seen no warming (actually a slight cooling) since 1991.
Furthermore, the corrected temperature record of Bromwich et al., 2012 appears to actually depict more cooling since 1991 than the uncorrected data…
I refer to your recent citation concerning warming in Antarctica and note that the paper cited is specifically and uniquely about the West Antarctica….which is a different kettle of fish, and cannot be safely used to extrapolate to represent the whole of the Antarctic…. unless one is being deceptive and duplicitous.
>”There4fore (sic), you CANNOT impute AGW (1951 – 2010) to [sub-]Antarctic warming in the same period anyway. You could be looking at heat originating between 1851 – 1910, 100 years earlier.”
The imputation (Luke’s) is to sub-Antarctic islands – not the Antarctic continent.
I’m assuming that Turney et al and their re enactment/fact finding Anatarctic mission have not contributed much to that:
“PLENTY OF EVIDENCE for anthropogenic climate change in Antarctica unless you’re a denier”
That Luke is referring to.
They may have perhaps CONTRIBUTED something to it considering the time and resources that were involved in the whole debacle?????
Richard – I make a habit of not reading anything from sites like Wattsup. This is an evidence based science blog. The point of Parker et al is that IPO is EOF2 but a long shot not EOF1 as Cohenite would bluff.
Minister For Whatever – take it up with Cohenite – his blanket statement. Additionally with anthropogenic (and not necessarily GHG impacts moreover ozone) on Antarctic circulation patterns we may not be surprised about the lack of central warming.
Neville – yes and that ref flies in the face of Cohenite’s blanket statement. Also it says “Over the last 100 years the JRI ice core record shows that mean temperature has increased by
1.56 ± 0.42°C (Fig. 4a). This ranks as one of the FASTEST (upper 0.3%) warming trends at JRI since
2,000 yrBP based on the moving 100-year analysis windows, demonstrating that rapid recent
warming of the Antarctic Peninsula is highly unusual although not outside the bounds of natural
variability in the pre-anthropogenic era”
The risk is obvious ! especially to CO2 reckless types such as yourself advocating maximum CO2 emissions.
I’ve proved above that YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT ANTARCTIC WARMING, so I’ll ask again. And can you get your brain in gear?
Really pathetic stuff Luke, you were completely wrong AGAIN so stop BS-ing. So answer my PROPER ON TOPIC question this time.
I gave you SST from NOMADS and air temp from UAH; take it up with them.
As minister and Richard have noticed the WAP is NOT the Antarctic. As for the WAP:
But don’t feel so bad about the Antarctic luke, you’re not the only true believer who is wrong; see Shindell and Schmidt:
As for your EOFs, I forget, are we still talking about Parker et al? Anyway using the same techniques the Chinese don’t find an AGW signal:
Stop wasting money on denier rock concerts, op-eds, unpublished waffle, and failed political campaigns and inform your alleged constituenc
We had a rock concert?
The AP demoted Turkey and his Mawson party to just passengers.
Couple more days of this and they’ll start calling em stowaways.
“We don’t know how they got on board. Shimmied up the bowline maybe.” says Capt of the Aurora.
>”I make a habit of not reading anything from sites like Wattsup”
Yes, and your ignorance resulting from not having open-minded wide-ranging perspective shows.
>”This is an evidence based science blog”
As is David Middleton’s WUWT article – “The NASA-GISS data (GHCN & SCAR)”.
Evidence comes in a number of forms Luke, it’s a matter of applying it as David does – not just parroting some meme you’re obsessed with and papers you haven’t critiqued in detail.
>”CO2 reckless types such as…”
#SpiritofMawson comes to mind, multiple icebreakers, helicopter trips, and all.
Richardc NZ, Luke doesn’t like genuine sites like WUWT. He prefers his data to be used upside down and just loves referring to fake studies and hoax graphs.
The more idiotic the better he likes them. Like the IPCC quoting fake himalayan glacier studies that projected they would be gone by 2035.
Of course even IPCC president Pachauri defended it and claimed anyone who doubted the glacier study believed in voodoo science.
But Luke also believes that Tony Abbott is the cause of the Blue mountains bushfires in Oct 2013. Of course in Oct 2012 the same area was coated in snowfall and it extended to the granite belt of OLD.
But he probably thinks that Abbott caused that as well. He also loved the fake OZ SH hockey stick study. That’s until McIntyre’s blog broke that one as well.
Richard – surely you’re not advocating the quotation of sites like Wattsup. I guess you’ll be advocating Nova next. Tut tut.
Let’s not get into the sceptic political wing.
Neville desist from verballing me. Neville of course being a devotee of sites likes Wattsup quotes material that is then rebutted by the actual author with such phrases as ….
” I displayed my very limited understanding of statistics in this post. This was pointed out to me a great number times by many different people in numerous comments received in the WattsUpWithThat cross post. The errors in that initial portion of the post were so many and so great that they detracted from the bulk of the post, which was about the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Please disregard this post and the WUWT cross post, and any other cross posts that may exist.”
So let’s confine ourselves to more reputable sources.
Cohenite your quote of http://csb.scichina.com:8080/kxtbe/EN/abstract/abstract501373.shtml is irrelevant. Dear boy – Parker et al’s EOF analysis assumes nothing – it’s simply what the data shows. I think you’ve lost the plot. Perhaps the heat !
So I guess the Antarctic peninsula is now not part of Antarctica – uh huh – right I see. Turn up the air-con.
>”…surely you’re not advocating the quotation of sites like Wattsup”
Not simply the quotation Luke – the reasoned, intelligent, evidenced-based critique such as David’s.
It’s what sceptics do Luke, but the credulous and gullible don”t
You quote from sites like hotwhopper & Deltoid & SkS.
What’s the difference?
I actually agree with Richardcfromnz on this particular matter:
“Evidence comes in a number of forms Luke, it’s a matter of applying it as David does – not just parroting some meme you’re obsessed with and papers you haven’t critiqued in detail.”
As he also points out. . . ignorance develops from:
” not having open-minded wide-ranging perspective”.
But anyway. . .
I’m pretty confident. . .no matter how hard some have tried to argue otherwise. . . the Turney et al re enactment/expedition was a fine example of a ‘loser’ (to borrow from Jaycee’s terminology).
It was also deliciously ironic.
Lucky something similar didn’t happen to Mawson. . . that human ingenuity and use of fossil fuel inspired inventions and technologies (that is apparently the KEY(!) driver of alarming & destructive future climate) was sure damn handy for Turney et al don’t you reckon?
Bob Tisdale continues in the updates (tisdale-takes-on-taminos-foster-rahmstorf-2011):
“The bottom line: Although I mistook a linear trend for a linear time trend, and although I did not include all of the additional data refinements used by Foster and Rahmstorf (2011), it’s difficult to see any difference between my Figure 7 and their Figure 5. There were other bloggers commenting on the thread of the WUWT cross post who got similar results using different methods. Does this mean the results of Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) are robust as some comments on the WUWT tread claimed? No. ENSO is a process, not an index, and it can’t be account (sic) for using linear regression analysis. This was illustrated clearly and discussed in detail under the heading of ENSO IS NOT AN EXOGENOUS FACTOR.”
The F&R11 residual trend continues projecting on a steeply rising trajectory from the 2010 El Nino year (F&R actually made very little adjustment for the 2010 El Nino). The actual observations 2010 – 2013 on the other hand – don’t. 2011,2012, and 2013 are well below 2010 contrary to F&R’s trajectory.
In other words, F&R11 is junk, Tisdale is right in terms of concept.
” I displayed my very limited understanding of statistics in this post”
“The errors in that initial portion of the post were so many and so great”
Yea sure Richard….
The great unpublished and now gratefully retired B Tisdale. Spare us – and that’s only one of many.
>”…the fake OZ SH hockey stick study”
Gergis? Lasted 3 weeks.
Funding of which:
2606 ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
The University of Melbourne
LP0990151 Dr JL Gergis; Prof DJ Karoly; Prof N Nicholls; A/Prof DS Garden; Prof CS Turney; Dr AM Lorrey; Dr K Braganza; Dr RJ Allan; Miss G Skelly; Ms RJ Moran; Dr K Tan; Mr RA Neville; Dr NR Lomb
Approved Project Title Reconstructing pre-20th century rainfall, temperature and pressure for south-eastern Australia using palaeoclimate, documentary and early weather station data.
2009 : $ 65,000
2010 : $ 117,500
2011 : $ 105,000
2012 : $ 52,500
More funding down the gurgler, aided by one Prof CS Turney no less.
>”The great unpublished and now gratefully retired B Tisdale”
Unpublished? Literally wrote the ENSO book and published it – you can buy it, an educative text, and learn from it. But you wont, your mind is a closed shop isn’t it luke?
Foster and Rahmstorf on the other hand – not so much education. In fact, now in non-existent-warming, no-mans-land.
Self-publishing – such vanity.
My mind is quite open Richard – but not to try-ons which plague the denialosphere
Turney, when he’s not gobbling carbon, is gobbling money. How would you like to be an investor in Carbonscape? Burning money to burn and bury wood. It might be cheaper if he blows a few million a year on dud polar expeditions. Keep him out of the forests. (The theory is if you bury enough char you’ll get something like terra preta. Might work on a farm the size of Jaycee’s – which is a pot plant in inner Brissie.)
Luke, you are like a rabbit on meth; funny from a distance and all over the place; you say:
“So I guess the Antarctic peninsula is now not part of Antarctica – uh huh – right I see. Turn up the air-con.”
You see that gap between the WAP and the rest of the Antarctic geology; it’s full of volcanoes and warm sub-tropical currents.
And the Chinese EOF study contradicts Parker as does Desole et al:
“Specifically, the trend due to only the forced component is statistically the same in the two 32-year periods and in the 63-year period. That is, the forced part is not accelerating. Taken together, these results imply that the observed trend differs between the periods 1946-1977 and 1977-2008 not because the forced response accelerated, but because internal variability lead to relative cooling in the earlier period and relative warming in the later period”
That is the short trend is NOT due to AGW and neither is the long term trend, EOF1 and 3 in Parker.
>”You see that gap between the WAP and the rest of the Antarctic geology; it’s full of volcanoes and warm sub-tropical currents.”
No warm currents but WAIS volcanic too:
‘Active Volcano Discovered Under Ice Sheet in West Antarctica’
Nov 18, 2013 by Sci-News.com
U.S. seismologists have made a surprising discovery near Mount Sidley in Marie Byrd Land, Antarctica – an active volcano smoldering under 1.2 km thick ice.
“Ms Lough with colleagues calculated that an enormous eruption, one that released a thousand times more energy than the typical eruption, would be necessary to breach the 1.2 km-thick ice above the volcano.”
I think that would involve molten magma (temperature range 700 °C to 1300 °C) – and people are worried about some teensy surface air effects on 1.2 km-thick ice?
Cohenite – sigh you miss the point. Now you’ve gone and gotten into assumptions as to what does what. Parker et al is beautiful in that EOF1 is simply showing there’s a centennial trend and EOF 2 just happens to drop out as a Pacific influence. It’s not programmed to do so. Says nothing about attribution. Just says that’s what the data pattern is. I find it compelling that a pattern that looks like the IPOD pops out of two data sets.
And now we’re ploughing over utterly desperate volcanoes causing the peninsula melt. Drearie me. Pity nothing shows up in all the oceanography surveys or satellites and when they dragged a probe over the new submerges system in the Sound it hardly registered for temperature change.
This was posted over at Jonova and is very evocative and from a man with prior experiences in the area
“This is precisely the issue, Robber. What did Turney imagine he could achieve in a month when the AAD spends millions a year over the past 50 years researching – with real scientists – precisely these questions? And as a polar historian (I edited Captain John King Davis’s Antarctic journals – he was skipper on all Mawson’s expeditions) I am particularly infuriated by the pseudo ‘Spirit of Mawson’ tag; implying that Turney in 3 days could replicate (?) scientific observations of Mawson’s expedition of nearly three years.
As a former ANARE station leader, and also staff member on numerous tourist voyages on ships like Shokalskiy, I have been to almost all of the Antarctic coast as well as inland.
And I am even more infuriated by the suggestion that the Russian owners of the ship should pay for the rescue, implying that the Captain was at fault; when it’s clear it was the scientists’ incompetence and ignorance, under Turney’s leadership, that caused the delayed departure that had such cascading – and continuing – consequences.
When, in all his relentlessly positive posts on ‘Intrepid Science’ (LOL), is he going to show any glimmer of acknowledgement of his responsibility for this fiasco?”
Yes indeed, when is he going to behave more responsibly and less like an over excited prat.
SkS on Foster and Rahmstorf (2011):
“Based on this average of all five adjusted data sets, the warming trend has not slowed significantly in recent years (…..0.187°C per decade from 2000 through 2010).”
That was then, the situation has changed radically with the addition of only 3 yrs data:
GISTEMP Trend 2000 through 2010: 0.099 ±0.257 °C/decade (2σ)
GISTEMP Trend 2000 through 2013: 0.062 ±0.153 °C/decade (2σ)
GISTEMP Trend 2010 through 2013: -0.150 ±0.952 °C/decade (2σ)
Problem for Foster and Rahmstorf being that the 12 month GISTEMP moving average is now all below the 2000 through 2013 trend line since 2010 i.e. subsequent data after F&R11 is not on, or anywhere near, the F&R11 +0.187°C per decade trajectory in ENSO-neutral conditions. In fact, almost opposite at -0.150 °C/decade.
Note 2010 is basically ENSO-neutral in F&R11 because they made minimal ENSO adjustment to that year.
@Minister for Whatever re JN comment – precisely, see also:
DataSciNz article linked at JN:
‘Using data science to better manage risk (and avoid getting stuck in the ice)’
“I introduce what I believe is an exciting new descriptive acronym: Something Else Goes Wrong And Yet more Delay (SEGWAYD). “
Quoting the article:
An interesting thing about judgement is that it is true or false, black or white. Risk management is about probabilities.
Nate Silver coached us on how to construct Bayesian probability estimates……..[…]
That’s right, our initial 1% risk of needed a rescue has been elevated to 13% when we know it is the worst ice year in 20 and make the other assumption we did. This appears to get worse at every decision point following new information the AAE encountered, based mentioned above based on the probabilities used to populate the table below.
Table 1. Bayesian Probabilities following Nate Silver’s format, estimating the posterior likelihood of AEE requiring rescue. The prior probability, x, is estimated initially, and then estimated using the posterior probability from each step. All estimates for x, y, and z are very rough and readers are encouraged to calculate results from their own estimates.
Step x y z posterior New Event Considered
1 1% 75% 5% 13% Exceptional sea ice year – 1 in 20
2 13% 75% 10% 53% Destination only reached via narrow polynia
3 53% 95% 25% 81% An onshore storm is coming
4 81% 80% 50% 87% SEGWAYD
Wow, so that’s remarkable. There were 4 steps where the AAE probably should have reassessed the probability they would require a rescue?
# # #
Near-record high 2013 Antarctic SIE in the satellite era is interpreted by DataSciNZ as:
“Exceptional sea ice year – 1 in 20″.
Well yes, well above normal much like exceptional years 2010, 2009, 2008, 2003 – but moreso:
“Problem for Foster and Rahmstorf being that the 12 month GISTEMP moving average is now all below the 2000 through 2013 trend line since 2010 i.e. subsequent data after F&R11 is not on, or anywhere near, the F&R11 +0.187°C per decade trajectory in ENSO-neutral conditions. In fact, almost opposite at -0.150 °C/decade.”
This is particularly pertinent since F&R’s ‘pure’ and ridiculously constant AGW signal was already well above the temp trend.
Robert, I have mentioned bio-char before.
The willows, planted back in the day along the Murray and its tributaries, are now weeds.
So, without replacing them with anything else to hold banks together, in rivers run politically at flood level for long periods, they are being removed.
Here is where AGW enters the picture. –
1 – The willow trees are cut and pulled out, using a special magic carbon neutral willow removing machine.
2 – These trees are then teleported to a central location in another magic carbon neutral operation.
3 – Said trees are then reduced to charcoal , using magic heat sources.
4 – The charcoal is then ground into a sort of large ash-like product, once again using special magic forces.
5 – This ‘product’ ( bio-char) is then teleported magically to a farm near you.
6 – The bio-char is then spread over a field , ( by magic wand waiving? ) as a form of fertiliser, resulting in the carbon from the willow trees being sequestered in the soil.
As you can see, this process relies very heavily upon invisible sources of funding and special forms of Green magic, a bit of smoke and a lot of mirrors on the farm houses.
Very fertile ground for fattening Turkeys
Ian, if you check out the Carbonscape site, they say they’ve scored 150 thou as a runner up prize in the, er, International Dutch Postcode Lottery Green Challenge. Carbonscape’s special patented process involves…microwaves! Beam me up, Scottie.
Imagine being a ridgy-didge polar scientist and watching the money and resources go to the turkey who helped set up Carbonscape.
This article presents the twisted logic of AGW true believers:
Should Australian newspapers publish climate change denialist opinion pieces?
Luke, you’re either senile or overworked: hahahahahahaha!
You’ve already linked to the Mulvaney Holocene paper which does your point no favours as I have already explained.
As for this:
“The case for warming is 100% compelling and ubiquitous.”
I don’t disagree; there has been warming globally over the 20thC; it apparently stopped about 15-20 years ago; and the prior warming had nothing to do with CO2.
As for the Antarctic warming: argue the air and SST please; they both show no AGW at the Antarctic; and this Turney ratbag has to go; blaming the sea ice on calving ice-bergs due to AGW!
Honestly, when people are satirising the present in future eras, the Guardian will be a mine of humour. I love to read the ads and handy tips for living green, all written for posh Poms by posh Poms. You can just pick any page, any ad. These are just typical:
“Download a coupon to get money off an eco-friendly toilet paper…Andrex Eco is a green toilet paper made from a mix of 90% responsibly sourced recycled paper and 10% bamboo to give it the softness you’d expect from Andrex…And, as you’d expect from Andrex, the eco-friendly product is fully certified by the Forest Stewardship Council and comes in packaging that is 100% recyclable.”
Described as ‘a seriously cool smartphone that puts social values first’. This is a fascinating project aiming to sell 20,000 green Android handsets, while also giving the bigger manufacturers a nudge to improve their own products. £277, fairphone.com”
The Poms must be the biggest suckers for green gadgetry and fetishism, because the Guardian has been pushing all this over-priced and over-hyped junk for years now, devoting lots of space to it all. The stuff must really sell…unlike the newspaper itself.
By the way, guys, did you know you can save energy by turning off your computer? And your TV? Especially if you turn them off at the power point. Also, if you turn off your car radio you can save a tiny smidgin of petrol. Because, you see, the car’s electricals are running off its fuel, so if you don’t run the electricals…No, I’m not making it up.
Just read the Guardian to learn more!
Yes Robert, this bio char thing and how to make it , is a bucket of money waiting to be grabbed.
The 2 below are just what I found in 2 minutes. The ‘Federal ‘ funding went to something 5 years old in May 2012, so there is ongoing funding all over. Real Turkey country.
I agree with your feelings about real Antarctic scientists. I suspect that is why the Aurora Australis is now heading back here asap. Before someone throws those nitwits overboard.
The overcrowding of people’s legitimate space on that ship, by a collection of spoilt brats and egotistical wankers, must be unbearable.
Not to mention the Snow Dragon, China’s pride and joy icebreaker, stranded and maybe rescued by a US one. This ship has “traveled farther North than any Chinese ship”. It has , much to Chinese glee and Canadian embarrassment, popped up undetected in small town Canada.
Now Turkey has put them in a shameful ( to them ), spot.
If they make a cartoon movie of “Turkeys on Ice” that Xue Long would have a cloud of angry steam coming off it right now.
Turney went on a secular quest to find his holy grail of AGW. His hubris and hype turned this into a lark. He attracted wealthy believers, media puppets and tax payer support.
His ignorance was only matched by his faith.
It is not really surprising he turned his quest into a ship of fools.
Who is behind the ship of fools?
‘In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.’
Turney is a typical of shysters in this age of seeming. He comes across as a happy positive soul interested only in science – the triumph of style over substance. By the end of the interview it is obvious he is a greedy, publicity hungry charlatan who has decided to get rich / famous from CAGW. It is also clear he organised this as a SCIENTIFIC expedition – it also demonstrates his arrogance – he was going to assess 3 years of Mawson measurements over (maybe) 1 month on the ice. Turney simply wants to get rich at the public expense – typical of CAGW alarmists.
The bill for the fiasco should be sent to him – unless Luke is prepared to contribute.
It’s been a while since I’ve asked a really stooopid question on this board; so here goes. I saw this at Steven Goddard’s blog. Should we be concerned about it?
UAH Also Cooling America’s Past
Posted on January 5, 2014
No one is going to accuse John Christy or Roy Spencer of being climate alarmists, but UAH temperatures have also significantly cooled the past over the last ten years.
some ppl have more time on their hand than it’s good for them
Mark Steyn has weighed in on the Cli-tanic fiasco.
Eco-warriors stranded in the Antarctic! It’s too good to be true
8 January 2014 16:40
Yes, yes, just to get the obligatory ‘of courses’ out of the way up front: of course ‘weather’ is not the same as ‘climate’; and of course the thickest iciest ice on record could well be evidence of ‘global warming’, just as 40-and-sunny and a 35-below blizzard and 12 degrees and partly cloudy with occasional showers are all apparently manifestations of ‘climate change’; and of course the global warm-mongers are entirely sincere in their belief that the massive carbon footprint of their rescue operation can be offset by the planting of wall-to-wall trees the length and breadth of Australia, Britain, America and continental Europe.
But still: you’d have to have a heart as cold and unmovable as Commonwealth Bay ice not to be howling with laughter at the exquisite symbolic perfection of the Australasian Antarctic Expedition ‘stuck in our own experiment’, as they put it. I confess I was hoping it might all drag on a bit longer and the cultists of the ecopalypse would find themselves drawing straws as to which of their number would be first on the roasting spit. On Douglas Mawson’s original voyage, he and his surviving comrade wound up having to eat their dogs. I’m not sure there were any on this expedition, so they’d probably have to make do with the Guardian reporters. Forced to wait a year to be rescued, Sir Douglas later recalled, ‘Several of my toes commenced to blacken and fester near the tips.’ Now there’s a man who’s serious about reducing his footprint.
But alas, eating one’s shipmates and watching one’s extremities drop off one by one is not a part of today’s high-end eco-doom tourism.
Disclaimer: Please do not read the rest of the article if you’ve ever had a humorectomy.
Thanks Larry for sharing. And the whole fiasco had me laughing a lot on New Year’s Eve. And doesn’t Mark Steyn explain it all so well… Forced to wait a year to be rescued, Sir Douglas later recalled, ‘Several of my toes commenced to blacken and fester near the tips.’ Now there’s a man who’s serious about reducing his footprint.
OPEN LETTER to PROF CHRIS TURNEY, University of NSW, Sydney
Dear Prof Turney
I am a physics graduate who in recent years has turned his attention to very comprehensive study of climate, climate models and the alleged greenhouse radiative forcing conjecture. I have written to you personally and now make this matter public herein and elsewhere on various climate blogs.
I make the following points …
(1) Any study of temperature records for various inland cities (such temperatures being adjusted for altitude) will reveal that the mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures are lower in the more moist regions, because the greenhouse gas water vapour cools, as does carbon dioxide to a very small extent.
(2) The total solar energy reaching the top of the Venus atmosphere would not be anywhere near enough to raise its surface temperate to about 730K so such cannot be explained by radiative forcing.
My challenge to you is to find anyone with sufficient knowledge of thermodynamics who can in any way support the conjecture that radiative forcing determines planetary surface temperatures.
(This has also been emailed to Prof Turney directly with a note that it is being posted on about 15 climate blogs.)
To get in touch with Jennifer call 0418873222 or international call +61418873222.
Email: jennifermarohasy at gmail.com