Open Thread

I’ve been reading ‘The Lucky Culture and The Rise of an Australian Ruling Class’ by Nick Cater. Mr Cater has been a journalist with News Ltd and interestingly has a degree in sociology from Exeter University in the UK.

The book is very much a sociologist’s perspective on the contemporary Australian inner city pseudo-intellectual. Mr Cater is extraordinarily accurate in his description of their totems and their prejudices.

Nick Cater

145 Responses to Open Thread

  1. spangled drongo November 14, 2013 at 10:16 am #

    With the incredible rise [in numbers and entitlement] of this younger, public-employed generation who are fundamentally wet behind the ears, the looming pitfalls in their new philosophies are frightening.

  2. Neville November 14, 2013 at 11:28 am #

    Yes Spangled their looney philosophy and the poor taxpayer funded pitfalls.

  3. spangled drongo November 14, 2013 at 11:48 am #

    One of my ancestors came here at the end of the Napoleonic wars after serving as a “snotty” in the battle of Trafalgar facing shit, shot and splinters exploding around him at the age of eleven. Later generations were involved in building Queensland railways where their children died like flies in the camps from dysentery, etc.

    Child labour and discipline has been with us forever but recently we seem to have exchanged it for type 2 diabetes.

    We weren’t as lucky in the past as we’ll need to be in the future.

  4. Debbie November 14, 2013 at 11:58 am #

    I read Cater’s book not long after it hit the shelves.
    I too found some of his insights very interesting and IMHO and from personal experience. . . extraordinarily accurate.
    The chapter devoted to the rise of the Human Rights Commission (and sorry I have lent my copy to a family member so can’t refer to it) comes highly recommended by me.
    A bit contrary to SD’s comment, I actually found a lot of Cater’s insights encouraging as he does point out that Australian culture has a fairly robust and workable ‘balancing mechanism’ (and because I haven’t got it to refer to, that may not be his exact terminology)? imbedded into it. . . and that we’re watching that starting to operate.
    In the same time frame, I also read the book “DOWNFALL; How The Labor Party Ripped Itself Apart” by Aaron Patrick who has a pedigree in financial journalism and who at the time of writing was a senior editor at the Australian Financial Review. . . as well as being a former member of Young Labor.
    His perspective and insights are quite similar to Cater’s in some respects.
    Patrick’s book was written & published BEFORE the last federal election.

  5. jennifer November 14, 2013 at 1:14 pm #

    Hi Spangled

    The book blames current obsession with AGW, and more, not on the current generation, but on a 1970s cultural revolution. I think that would mean it was your generation that was to blame?

    The political turning point is identified as the 1978 Tasmania’s Hydro-Electric commission announced Gordon below Franklin Dam.

    Indeed the book suggests that it is your generation that turned Australian Universities into something more analogous to finishing schools… than places where knowledge resides and where debate and discussion is welcome.

  6. spangled drongo November 14, 2013 at 1:40 pm #

    “The book blames current obsession with AGW, and more, not on the current generation, but on a 1970s cultural revolution.”

    Jen, the hippie generation that started in the ’60s as a result of the contraception pill was where it started.

    But not everyone believed in Gaia and flower power at the time.

  7. Debbie November 14, 2013 at 4:06 pm #

    Yep,
    That 1978 decision that saw the Australian Federal Government using international treaties related to the environment is indeed an important milestone in our cultural, social and political history.
    The vexed parochial politics surrounding the SA lower lakes and the MDBP can also trace some of its its roots there.

  8. bazza November 14, 2013 at 4:34 pm #

    Caters book is simply divisive – post election we should look for those who take on the bigger challenge of uniting us. The book was always simply a child of the Murdoch press. Divisiveness and straw men sell papers but do not enrich or grow communities .

  9. Johnathan Wilkes November 14, 2013 at 5:00 pm #

    Jesus Christ, can you come if with more banal platitudes bazzer?
    I bet you didn’t even bother to read the book, mayhap looked up a review you agree with , tops.

  10. bazza November 14, 2013 at 5:01 pm #

    The pause that never was! Clearly a potential game changer that paper by Cawton and Way that Luke put up at 721 on the typhoon thread. In a nutshell they have recalculated the trend of the last 15 years. “But after filling the data gaps this trend is 0.12 °C per decade and thus exactly equal to the long-term trend mentioned by the IPCC.”…..Bye to the pause. What hiatus?

    “….at least in the U.S., about half of all reports about the new IPCC report mention the issue of a “warming pause”, even though it plays a very minor role in the conclusions of the IPCC. Often the tenor was that the alleged “pause” raises some doubts about global warming and the warnings of the IPCC.”

    “ The public debate about the alleged “warming pause” was misguided from the outset, because far too much was read into a cherry-picked short-term trend. Now this debate has become completely baseless, because the trend of the last 15 or 16 years is nothing unusual – even despite the record El Niño year at the beginning of the period. It is still a quarter less than the warming trend since 1980, which is 0.16 °C per decade. But that’s not suprising when one starts with an extreme El Niño and ends with persistent La Niña conditions, and is also running through a particularly deep and prolonged solar minimum in the second half. As we often said, all this is within the usual variability around the long-term global warming trend and no cause for excited over-interpretation.”

  11. toby November 14, 2013 at 5:09 pm #

    Oh come on Baz, even the IPCC has come clean and admitted to little to no warming. are you clutching at straws? It has ntg to do with cherry picking, start from now and work back, that is perfectly sensible and a long way from cherry picking. Cherry picking is calling independent weather events such as bush fires and a typhoon as further proof of CAGW.

  12. bazza November 14, 2013 at 5:26 pm #

    I understand the paper is post IPCC. Science keeps moving on, Toby, not regressing! as for Cater, I read extracts, and if Murdoch, Alan Jones, Howard etc like it, then I ask you. Nothin divisive about those three. So what did you like about the book, Jonathan ? Can you only do divisive too?

  13. spangled drongo November 14, 2013 at 5:37 pm #

    Divisiveness eh Baz?

    A bit of mote’n’beam coming out there, d’ya think?

    Read any Fairfax lately?

    Listened to “our” ABC?

    “post election we should look for those who take on the bigger challenge of uniting us.”

    Couldn’t agree more.

    Still waiting for the honeymoon with the lefty press.

  14. handjive November 14, 2013 at 6:02 pm #

    What is a couple billion gigatons of a harmless, odourless invisible gas here or there when you wanna save the world?
    Nothing, according to the Cargo Cult of Global Warming political arm, the UN-IPCC:

    U.N. climate panel corrects carbon numbers in influential report

    “Errors in the summary for policymakers were discovered by the authors of the report after its approval and acceptance by the IPCC,” it said in a statement.
    It did not say how the errors had been made.
    The panel had hoped to avoid more corrections after an embarrassing error about Himalayan ice-melt in its 2007 report.

    When asked if the correction would affect the credibility of the IPCC, Pachauri said, “I don’t think so.”
    http://www.nbcnews.com/science/u-n-climate-panel-corrects-carbon-numbers-influential-report-2D11577699

    The UN-IPCC is voodoo science.

  15. Johnathan Wilkes November 14, 2013 at 7:15 pm #

    @bazza
    ‘and if Murdoch, Alan Jones, Howard etc like it, then I ask you.’

    What a childish puerile thing to say, so if they happen to like hamburgers you will give them up?

    If it makes you happy I have no time for either of them either but I have well grounded reasons not some ideological hatred for sake of it.

  16. Debbie November 14, 2013 at 7:57 pm #

    Google this:
    “post election we should look for those who take on the bigger challenge of uniting us.”
    And look where that comment has likely been sourced.
    Bazza,
    Seriously? You do need to take off your blinkers.
    I am actually starting to feel a little sorry for you.
    The world has moved on. . .and whether you like it or not. . .Cater and Kahneman and several others have offered some interesting insights into why that has happened.
    As Jen has been highlighting over several recent posts. . .it really doesn’t have much to do with science.

  17. John Sayers November 14, 2013 at 11:27 pm #

    I haven’t read Jen’s book but if her brief summary is correct, yes, I can accept that.- it was our generation to blame.

    James Hansen (1941) and Bob Brown(1944) were both war babies, i.e. they were in their mother’s womb during war. I was 1945 on the cusp.

    In 1978 I moved to Byron Bay to establish The Music Farm, the first country based music recording studio of it’s time and I was surrounded by the hippie generation. In fact it was the fact that the major Australian bands of the time recorded at Music Farm and hung around Byron coffee shops along with the surfing community that Byron became the trendy town it is today even though at the time it was a meat works town surrounded by failed dairy/pig farms caused by the move of Britain into the EEC in 1972.

    Everyone was a hippie/greenie and still to this day Byron is the bedwetters capital and has a Green council, a first Green state rep in Ian Cohen and a Federal Labor rep in Justine Elliott. The Byron Echo, the local rag is totally AGW and fully left with Mungo MacCallum’s weekly articles egging on the true believers.

    You can imagine the abuse I cop being a climate change skeptic and a Liberal voter.

  18. Ian Thomson November 15, 2013 at 6:18 am #

    JS,
    I might be inclined to abuse you for being a Liberal voter too mate.
    Those Lib pollies who aren’t AGW bedwetters are either after making some money from it, or dangling their feet on both sides of the fence carefully , so as not to get electorally damaged by the tainted stuff below.
    Sort of just like Labour, with less tax, but more smoke and mirrors.

    And Jen , I still think that this best sums up trendies.

  19. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 6:39 am #

    Thanks for those recollections John. I was born just before WW2 and as a young kid went through that impressionable stage with the feelings of sheer survival, knowing that all your male and some female relatives were likely not to come home. We hung on every bit of news which often was not good. All the kids of that era were in a similar situation. I remember my Latin teacher telling the class not long after the war about how the first half of the 20th century had been sheer hell to grow up in [2WWs and a depression] and we could only hope for better things to come.

    Better things did come but my [and earlier] generations had seen what can happen and were always sceptical of the “good times”.

    The hippy era seemed to be a concerted effort in tossing aside that scepticism.

    But they needed a little help from their “friends” to do it.

    We had to get by without “friends” like that.

  20. Neville November 15, 2013 at 7:09 am #

    Another study finds zip to worry about future SLR.

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2013/11/new-paper-finds-sea-level-rise-has.html

    In fact their ABCs Williams and Flannery have a lot of problems with their projections to 2100.
    Around a foot or less in the next 87 years isn’t going to help them much. Ditto silly Gore.

    So where’s bazza and Luke’s dangerous CAGW ? And remember all the models as used by the IPCC show zip SLR for the next 300 years as well. So where’s all that warming and melting to come from I wonder? Silly fools will believe anything.

  21. toby November 15, 2013 at 7:29 am #

    Well I am much further through Kahneman now and I have to say CAGW fits perfectly into the WYSIATI ( what you see is there is all there is) and also “theory-individual blindness”.

    Theory-individual blindness he says occurs because once you have accepted a theory it is extraordinarily difficult to notice its flaws. They defer to experts and ignore examples that do not fit the paradigm as being explainable by “something else”.

    so let me point out what I think we know; ( maybe others could add to it to overcome our friends blindness?)
    We know we understand clouds poorly as well as oceans. ( i know they are working hard on this but…..We know the more we know the more we dont know. )

    We know that in all likelihood it was as warm during the MWP, RWP and Minoan WP.
    We know that co2 and temp have not had a very good correlation over the last hundred years.
    We know that the forecast hot spot has not appeared. ( unless you want to play with the theory to fit your paradigm…..)
    We know ( well all the recognised data sets show it…if they are believable) that temp has not risen for 15-17 years.
    We know that all the real money is being made by people who push the cause ( and i dont mean they are all getting rich, but they do make their living from it), and the sceptics are mostly self funded and certainly not funded by “big oil”.

    We know that we are fed a continuous stream of exaggerated claims.

    We know that data is manipulated and the climategate emails demonstrate this well.

    We know that sea levels are not behaving in an abnormal way.

    we know that the models do not work well….and that the IPCC says they are not a predictive tool …except thats exactly how they are being used.

    We know this typhoon is nothing particularly unusual but it is further proof of CAGW.

    We now that co2 acts in a logairthmic way.

    we know that water vapour and co2 act in the basically the same spectrum

    we know that in general negative feedback effects dominate life on Earth

    We know that we have underestimated how much heat escapes to space.

    We know that we have limited good quality data and rely on proxy data that is well just that…a proxy, so very open to error, and also needs to be manipulated to make it meaningful.

    I dont think I need to go on….. except to say it seems to be complete madness to act before anybody else has.

  22. Neville November 15, 2013 at 8:41 am #

    Toby it doesn’t matter whether the OECD reduces emissions to 1990 levels, it still adds up to zip .
    If the non OECD keep emitting at the current soaring rate it’s all over red rover. Simple kindy maths.
    They can believe all they like but it just doesn’t matter. Anyway Labor couldn’t care less about soaring co2 emissions so why should we? Just look at their promotion and support of our FF exports. Simple as ABC.

  23. toby November 15, 2013 at 9:00 am #

    I agree Nev, This is obvious but so easily glossed over and excused in some meaningless way or another ( yet another example of theory- individual blindness) it is simple that if the other approx 5-6 billion of the world wish to live like us then co2 will rise irrespective of our pathetic attempts at control.

    So we either go nuclear or adapt if required, any other option is a mere platitude and an example of the appalling politics that dominates this theory.

  24. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 9:04 am #

    The party started 50 years ago and has been flowing and going strong ever since.

    YEEEE…HAAAH !!!!

    Back in those days it was self funded but now Schoolies, where the kids all get drunk and stoned because they are entitled to, have huge taxpayer-funded services standing by to get them back into it ASAP whenever they become paralytic.

    Both ends are suitably wiped and they are then encouraged to go back and have some more.

    “But please don’t throw one another off the balconies.”

    No wonder poor bloody Campbell gets vilified for trying to curtail some of the service industries.

  25. Luke November 15, 2013 at 9:47 am #

    Toby pretty well everything you’ve is selective and wrong sceptic meme-speak. CO2 affect is logarithmic – gee nobody knew that – hey guys – guys the radiative physics model is wrong – guys ….

    If you got anything out of climategate you’re having a tug really.

    CO2 correlation and temp – does a blood brilliant job on palaeo unless you’re a ice core twit like Neville

    Listen to Spangled “oh the youth of today – sook – grizzle” What a stinky old codger.
    Let’s get back to the 1950s when it was all hidden under the counter or behind the Astor or Kelvinator.

  26. toby November 15, 2013 at 9:57 am #

    sorry i should be referring to Kahneman’s term as theory- induced blindness.

    and a big THANKYOU Luke, that skit was always one of my favorites and it brings back great memories. i have a huge grin on my face!

  27. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 10:03 am #

    Yes, I suppose it is a bit restrictive on the kiddies to deny them “balcony competitions”.

    Specially when all that prepares them so well for their future careers.

    But it does knock real estate values around a bit.

  28. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 10:15 am #

    It’s nice when Luke leaves the party just long enough to make a comment.

  29. toby November 15, 2013 at 10:19 am #

    SD, the problem also springs i suspect from having life tooooooooo easy.

    The richer we get and more time we have on our hands the more a good cause gives meaning to lives….struggling to support the family used to suffice!?

  30. Luke November 15, 2013 at 10:27 am #

    We know that in all likelihood it was as warm during the MWP, RWP and Minoan WP. NOPE

    We know that co2 and temp have not had a very good correlation over the last hundred years. NOPE

    we know that the models do not work well….and that the IPCC says they are not a predictive tool …except thats exactly how they are being used. – NOPE

    We know this typhoon is nothing particularly unusual but it is further proof of CAGW. NOPE

    We now that co2 acts in a logairthmic way. YEP SO?

    we know that water vapour and co2 act in the basically the same spectrum YEP SO?

    we know that in general negative feedback effects dominate life on Earth EXCEPT WHEN IT DOESN’T

    We know that we have underestimated how much heat escapes to space. WE HAVE?

  31. Luke November 15, 2013 at 10:29 am #

    Toby – stuff all people really care about climate change. Everyone is down the shops or at the footy. Come on ,,,,

  32. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 10:36 am #

    Says Luke with a drink in his hand.

  33. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 10:41 am #

    “The richer we get and more time we have on our hands the more a good cause gives meaning to lives”

    I dunno Toby. Balcony competitions don’t do it for me.

    Luke maybe.

  34. toby November 15, 2013 at 11:18 am #

    Sorry Luke but where you say Nope I think you are defaulting to theory induced blindness. for instance co2 and temp have spent almost as much time moving in the same direction as they have apart or at least co2 up whilst temp is static.

    ie world warmed early 1900’s, cooled until mid century, warmed again until mid 90’s and has been static since (according to the main temp data sets). and all the while co2 has been climbing. ( i know they try to blame the cooling on soot particles…..another example of finding an “explanation” to maintain the theory)….and i know some of the cooling has been reduced from the mid century dip ( more convenience from my perspective)

    maybe its my own theory induced blindness ( and or confirmation bias) but i am sure i have read some papers recently about an underestimation of heat loss to space?

  35. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 11:39 am #

    BTW Luke, try not to spill your drink on this:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/14/games-people-play/

  36. toby November 15, 2013 at 11:43 am #

    SD my point is people have too much time and so focus on “good causes”

    there is nothing unusual or wrong with the young getting drunk and having a good time, let them have their balcony competitions if they wish ( whatever that is?).

    Even drug problems are generally blown out of proportion, nothing wrong for most people in taking the odd joint or many of the other drugs available such as ecstasy. Cocaine, had it a few times in my youth and what a wonderful time i had ( Rolling stones at Wembley stadium, Pink Floyd- earls court, iron maiden canberra stadium). would i do it again…yes. most things in moderation are good for you.

    now of course i am not saying yes to ice and the really dangerous drugs but i know lots of people who have used heroin a few times in the past ( not me, when i am 90…if i get there) and they certainly appear no worse off for it.

  37. Luke November 15, 2013 at 12:00 pm #

    “The October 2013 conditions do not look “remarkable” when compared to the anomalies since January 2011.” says Watts

    HAHAHAHAHAHAA – amazingly stupid. Watts is a goober. Wonder what an anomaly means.

    Toby – are you really silly enough to write this?

    ” world warmed early 1900′s, cooled until mid century, warmed again until mid 90′s and has been static since (according to the main temp data sets). and all the while co2 has been climbing.”

    That is remarkable in its silliness … remarkable

    http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl

    Yes Mum this graph is flat

  38. Graeme m November 15, 2013 at 12:13 pm #

    Dunno Luke, that plot looks exactly like what Toby described…

    Question from the ignorant. I’ve been reading a few posts and articles about the fabled ‘back radiation’ of CO2 and the arguments back and forwards about it. And it’s not just dummies like me arguing, it’s real live physicists, engineers, thermodynamicists and so on. I don’t understand how this concept can be so open to argument.

    Either CO2 absorbs and re-emits LWR or it doesn’t, surely? Has anyone anywhere set up a proper time based detection gauge? The simple answer would be to measure the amount of LWR from the sky over time at a suitable spot with suitable instruments. Given CO2 is increasing and it’s well mixed, then we MUST see something over the course of a decade or two, otherwise the effect can’t be sufficient to cause AGW. Can it?

  39. Beth Cooper November 15, 2013 at 12:13 pm #

    Toby,

    This on heat loss to space:
    The NASA ERBS & satellite data show more long wave radiation
    (and thus heat) escaped into space between 1998 &1999 than
    alarmist computed models had predicte.

    Bts
    http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-global-warming-alarmism-192334971.html

  40. Neville November 15, 2013 at 12:19 pm #

    Thought I’d just link to a post of mine earlier this year about SLR from Greenland and Antarctica until 2300.

    Comment from: Neville April 8th, 2013 at 9:17 am

    I was just re-reading Lomborg’s book and especially his section on SLR and looking at the Royal Society’s graphs again on Antarctica and Greenland.

    http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/364/1844/1709/F4.large.jpg Of course the Antarctic ice mass ( all models negative for SLR) is about nine times the size of Greenland’s ice mass. ( all models positive for SLR )

    But the rate of the negative SLR trend from Antarctica is also greater than the positive trend from Greenland, particularly as the graphs extend towards 2300 or another 300 years.

    But the Gore Hansen SLR trend until 2100 is about 6 metres or 20 feet, while the IPCC expects Greenland to contribute just 3.5 cm by 2100, or about 1.4 inches.

    So how do Gore and Hansen have any credibility at all and why do they have so much influence ,support and promotion in the MSM?

    Remember also that the IPCC 4th report states that about 29 cm ( about 1 foot) of SLR would be expected by 2100, but 21cm ( 8.5 inches) of that rise would be due to thermal expansion.

    So what does all this really tell you about the claims of impending dangerous SLR and the ongoing CAGW scare as well?

  41. bazza November 15, 2013 at 12:42 pm #

    I wish I knew what someone is putting in Tobes coffee – I wouldn’t want to touch it.

  42. Beth Cooper November 15, 2013 at 12:49 pm #

    I attended the CD Kemp Lecture 2013 last night in Melbourne at the
    Grand Hyatt, ) the guest speaker was Matt Ridley. speaking on ‘Freedom
    and Optimism, Humanity’s Triumph.’ A surprise guest and speaker was
    Bjorn Lomberg so it was a sparkling event. big crowd, many distinguished
    non-serf guests, Henry Ergas, Terry McCrann, I sat next to a friend of yours,
    Jennifer, Tom Quirk.

  43. Debbie November 15, 2013 at 1:23 pm #

    A little bit of homework for Bazza especially since he is a fan of Kahneman.
    I strongly suspect that Bazza has missed one of the key messages in Kahneman’s best seller “Thinking Fast and Slow”, even though he was waving it around like some sort of bible at one point here.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris
    http://www.thefreedictionary.com/hubris
    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=hubris
    http://thesaurus.com/browse/hubris

    As Toby points out. . .it is tied to the WYSIATI concept.

  44. toby November 15, 2013 at 1:53 pm #

    So Luke, thx for that graph, i went looking for my own from the first IPCC report, but yours suffices . From 1910-1945 ish it went up, from 1945 ish til 1975 ish it went down, from 75 ish til mid 90’s up and since its static. and during that time co2 continually climbed……perhaps you should have some of my coffee? not a particularly strong correlation in my book.

  45. toby November 15, 2013 at 1:54 pm #

    Thx BTS, I bet Matt Ridley was fascinating!

  46. sp November 15, 2013 at 1:57 pm #

    “From the outside it looks like a retreat to the bunkers for a last stand by fanatical adherents of an extremist cult preparing for martyrdom in a final paroxysm of righteousness. Perhaps it’s the prophesied battle of Armageddon featuring the righteous hosts of postmodernism vs. the Satanic idea of an objective reality independent of anything one might choose to believe. Or could it just be that the constant misrepresentation of reality that is now the norm in climate research has become so ingrained that adherents have difficulty differentiating reality from fantasy, not unlike the condition psychiatrists used to call Pseudologia Fantastica”

    http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2013/11/warmists-please-shut/

  47. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 2:16 pm #

    And now as La Pausa continua the desperate denial also continua as a result of the Luke Method of assuming you know what you’re talking about. More Pseudologia Fantastica [good description]:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/14/games-people-play/

  48. Neville November 15, 2013 at 2:19 pm #

    Beth did you learn anything new that was interesting and out of left field?
    And was it filmed for perhaps youtube later on? How long were the speeches? Did they stir about Labor/ greens blocking the co2 tax repeal?

  49. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 2:30 pm #

    Sorry wrong link, try:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/14/curry-on-the-cowtan-way-pausebuster-is-there-anything-useful-in-it/

  50. toby November 15, 2013 at 2:37 pm #

    From BTS link “Study co-author Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite, reports that real-world data from NASA’s Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into alarmist computer models.

    “The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during and after warming than the climate models show,” Spencer said in a July 26 University of Alabama press release. “There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans.”

    In addition to finding that far less heat is being trapped than alarmist computer models have predicted, the NASA satellite data show the atmosphere begins shedding heat into space long before United Nations computer models predicted.”

    Maybe they are wrong….maybe they are right, but it sure fits the theory- induced blindness concept….

  51. toby November 15, 2013 at 2:41 pm #

    from Kahneman…he is trying to explain why experts can believe a theory when it is obviously wrong. from pg 277 “thinking fast and slow”

    “i call it a theory induced blindness; once you have accepted a theory and used it as a tool in your thinking, it is extraordinarily difficult to notice its flaws. If you come upon an observation that does not fit the model, there must be a perfectly good explanation that you are somehow missing. You give the theory the theory the benefit of the doubt, trusting the community of experts who have accepted it.”

  52. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 2:46 pm #

    “We know that co2 and temp have not had a very good correlation over the last hundred years. NOPE”

    Toby, Luke likes his correlations to run a little longer to make sure they play out fully:

    http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/tbrown_figure3.png

  53. toby November 15, 2013 at 2:47 pm #

    having been chief dealer at a major US bank for foreign exchange i suspect i understand risk better than many, dealing in billions a day tends to do that. Being asked to quote a price in 100 million on a monday morning when the currency hasnt traded for 48 hours is very risky and very scary, in fact being asked in 10 million is scary and dangerous enough.

    i never had a losing year ( over 15 years) so i was obviously reasonably good at my job and when i assess the risk associated with action on climate change the way it stands currently given global policy actions i can only see insanity….or to use Debs term…hubris.

  54. toby November 15, 2013 at 3:19 pm #

    SP thx for the quadrant link…this is another good one and should be compulsory reading for all chief scientists and CAGW believers……
    http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2013/10/chiefly-incurious-chief-scientists/

  55. Larry Fields November 15, 2013 at 3:21 pm #

    Jennifer wrote:
    “Indeed the book suggests that it is your generation that turned Australian Universities into something more analogous to finishing schools… than places where knowledge resides and where debate and discussion is welcome.”

    I was hoping for an intergenerational donnybrook. And I made all of that virtual popcorn for nothing. Rats! 🙁

  56. toby November 15, 2013 at 3:22 pm #

    Thx SD! that makes my point even better …i would think!?

    instead some seem to focus on the micro whilst ignoring the bleeding obvious staring them in the face.

  57. Neville November 15, 2013 at 3:30 pm #

    The type of people involved in this disgusting cowardice and perversion towards little children is beyond my understanding.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/arrested_the_kind_of_people_youd_trust_with_your_children/

  58. John Sayers November 15, 2013 at 3:31 pm #

    http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1840/to:1915/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1915/to:1942/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1942/to:1975/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1975/to:2003/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2003/to:2013/trend

    Exactly where is Toby wrong Luke? If you tell some one they are wrong you must provide some evidence for your statement – you can’t just keep saying Nope Nope Nope. That’s immature and childish.

  59. toby November 15, 2013 at 3:51 pm #

    Thx John…I reckon they need some of my coffee……
    many are not interested in investigating the “truth” and do defer to experts, but when so many supposed experts are not experts, you should start to wonder. Those chief scientists and many IPCC contributors mentioned in the quadrant articles almost certainly know less about the subject that any of us on this blog. And whilst baz and luke may well know more, that sure doesn’t make them right.

    and we certainly know more than the politicians and policy makers making important decisions….in particular the likes of bob brown, milne and bandt!

  60. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 3:55 pm #

    Larry, I was just flattered that Jen thought me so young. ☺

  61. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 4:20 pm #

    More extreme wetting from the Warsaw warm pockets:

    http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2013/s3891651.htm

  62. Neville November 15, 2013 at 4:42 pm #

    Toby here is that 2010 interview by Phil Jones at the BBC. All the warming trends since 1860 are similar. Luke will try any BS to support his mad cult.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm

  63. toby November 15, 2013 at 4:45 pm #

    Luke you reply to some of my “knowns” with this;

    “We know that in all likelihood it was as warm during the MWP, RWP and Minoan WP. NOPE”….really? could have fooled me…but it is based on proxy data, archaeological finds and records that are maybe not reliable but certainly you can not say they were not as warm or warmer

    “We know that co2 and temp have not had a very good correlation over the last hundred years. NOPE”…clearly you are wrong?

    “we know that the models do not work well….and that the IPCC says they are not a predictive tool …except thats exactly how they are being used. – NOPE”..oh really?

    “We know this typhoon is nothing particularly unusual but it is further proof of CAGW.” NOPE, well proved to most of us on the last thread, believe what you want.

    “We now that co2 acts in a logarithmic way. YEP SO?”…so most of its warming effect happens below 200 ppm! you didn’t seriously say that did you? obviously it has a diminishing effect the more that occurs…of course you can find an excuse for that if you want…..theory induced blindness?!

    we know that water vapour and co2 act in the basically the same spectrum YEP SO?…so water is far more important and so already” traps” heat in the spectrum that co2 operates, making co2 superfluous. ……unless you can find an excuse that suits you?

    we know that in general negative feedback effects dominate life on Earth EXCEPT WHEN IT DOESN’T…maybe true in a few instances but obviously negative feedback effects dominate in general so why defer to the less likely?!

    We know that we have underestimated how much heat escapes to space. WE HAVE?…well probably according to NASA…..

    Come on over its the weekend share some coffee with me it might help you!
    I am heading out for a few drinks now, maybe I will make more sense to you after that? Thx for keeping me entertained during a down time at school, all my senior kids gone and I don’t know what to do with myself!

  64. Neville November 15, 2013 at 4:46 pm #

    Matt Ridley will appear on the Bolt Report on sunday 10 am channel 10. Repeated 4pm.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_bolt_report_on_sunday33/#commentsmore

  65. toby November 15, 2013 at 4:51 pm #

    Thx Nev, comical if it wasn’t so serious what they are advocating!
    I am sure monty python could make use of that interview…” and you think you have it tough in my day……..” ahahahahaha

  66. Luke November 15, 2013 at 7:40 pm #

    Luke you reply to some of my “knowns” with this;

    “We know that in all likelihood it was as warm during the MWP, RWP and Minoan WP. NOPE”….really? could have fooled me…but it is based on proxy data, archaeological finds and records that are maybe not reliable but certainly you can not say they were not as warm or warmer

    *** if you are going argue with GISP ice core I am simply going to piss myself laughing with your dishonesty. http://hot-topic.co.nz/easterbrooks-wrong-again/

    “We know that co2 and temp have not had a very good correlation over the last hundred years. NOPE”…clearly you are wrong?

    ***** http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/normalise/plot/esrl-co2/normalise says it all – or our best understanding still says it all -http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Climate_Change_Attribution.png – so not all is GHG forcing – combined with an intelligent view of palaeo data

    “we know that the models do not work well….and that the IPCC says they are not a predictive tool …except thats exactly how they are being used. – NOPE”..oh really?

    ******* only if you want to dupe yourself into believing that

    “We know this typhoon is nothing particularly unusual but it is further proof of CAGW.” NOPE, well proved to most of us on the last thread, believe what you want.

    **** ignores Emanuel’s PDI work and that the system drew on extreme temperatures in 100m volume of water. You’ve all scurried around trying to find denier points.

    “We now that co2 acts in a logarithmic way. YEP SO?”…so most of its warming effect happens below 200 ppm! you didn’t seriously say that did you? obviously it has a diminishing effect the more that occurs…of course you can find an excuse for that if you want…..theory induced blindness?!

    ***** well Tobes I think physicists may just know that bit somehow. It’s already in there.

    we know that water vapour and co2 act in the basically the same spectrum YEP SO?…so water is far more important and so already” traps” heat in the spectrum that co2 operates, making co2 superfluous. ……unless you can find an excuse that suits you?

    ******** yes but not precisely – a trivial look at the literature would show you water vapour induced feedback., Unless you stick to clown sites I’m amazed http://www.ep.sci.hokudai.ac.jp/~yokohata/work/review/pdf/20051129/PDO05.GRL.pdf
    Here it is measured http://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/web/de/forschung/veranstaltungen/archiv/foko_2013-1.Par.0012.DownloadFile.tmp/philiponafoko20131.pdf

    we know that in general negative feedback effects dominate life on Earth EXCEPT WHEN IT DOESN’T…maybe true in a few instances but obviously negative feedback effects dominate in general so why defer to the less likely?!

    ***** rubbish argument – palaeo well tells us what happens when the Earth receives a big slug of greenhouse gases – try PETM for just one instance

    We know that we have underestimated how much heat escapes to space. WE HAVE?…well probably according to NASA…..

    ********** http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/07/ HAHAHAHAHAHA ROFL

    Toby really you’re just surrounding yourself with junk ! cruddy denier site arguments which are just pathetic

    but you just return to them like all the others here do

  67. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 7:41 pm #

    What would Yeb have done without a typhoon?

    “Philippines Climate Commissioner Yeb Sano said poorer nations are tired of excuses, adding that discussions on how to fill the UN’s Green Climate Fund had been avoided at the last four UN summits. “We not leave Warsaw without concrete pledges on finance – especially in adaptation, because the urgency for adaptation is obvious,” he said.”

    http://www.rtcc.org/2013/11/11/funding-drought-threatens-2015-un-climate-agreement-report/#sthash.fqJIqtat.dpuf

  68. Luke November 15, 2013 at 7:46 pm #

    What is really interesting Toby is how little time you actually put into checking if there is any comment on extraordinary denier claims. Do you ever think – gee I mighthave a widdle bit of a google for some alternative comment.

    Or are you like Neville – who only has 2 bookmarks – Nova and Watts – and his TV dial welded to Fox News.

  69. Another Ian November 15, 2013 at 8:08 pm #

    To help Luke into a Friday frothie

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/15/friday-funny-9/#more-97467

  70. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 8:25 pm #

    Bob’s your uncle, Luke.

    http://squashpractice.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/gisp2vostok.jpg

  71. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 8:43 pm #

    More data Luke:

    http://www.gisp2.sr.unh.edu/DATA/Obrien.html

    Bob’s your uncle:

    http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html

  72. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 9:01 pm #

    IPCC Report:

    “The early Holocene was generally warmer than the 20th century”

    http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/073.htm

  73. Debbie November 15, 2013 at 9:06 pm #

    Jen,
    We just read your piece in this week’s “The Land”.
    Good point. . .Nick Cater does nail that contempt and there is a lot of ground to make up.
    I’m glad I wasn’t at that Brisbane conference. . .I most likely would have cried in pure frustration.
    I’m getting my copy of the book back this weekend. . .I think I might read it again after reading this post and your piece in the Land.
    It taught me a lot. . .but I think a second read may offer further insights.

  74. Luke November 15, 2013 at 9:07 pm #

    “Bob’s your uncle, Luke.”

    Not on Jerry Springer ! When it’s your Auntie.

    It’s irrelevant factoid time from SD …. Popular Technology – hahahahahahaha good one !

    Denier discussion http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQFKtI6gn9Y

  75. Neville November 15, 2013 at 9:19 pm #

    Debbie I hope you have the time to look at the Ridley video from the IPA talk last night. See my link above. Absolutely brilliant and he’ll be on the Bolt Report on Sunday.

    BTW it’s good to see Jo Nova covering the latest study on SLR.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2013/11/sea-level-rise-slowed-from-2004-deceleration-not-acceleration-as-co2-rises/#comment-1341007

  76. spangled drongo November 15, 2013 at 9:25 pm #

    More evidence of a warmer earlier Holocene in Lord Howe coral:

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100831094714.htm

  77. Luke November 16, 2013 at 2:59 am #

    A recent hobby which Toby will never do as he’ll turn to stone is reading the hilarious dissection of the ongoing intellectual putrefaction that is the Watts blog. You have to read it to believe it.

    http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2013/11/while-thousands-may-have-died-in.html

    http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2013/11/anthony-watts-protest-about-cowtan-way.html

  78. Luke November 16, 2013 at 6:50 am #

    “MikeH
    Anthony Watts as well as being an offensive bore is scientifically clueless.”
    HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA

  79. davefromweewaa November 16, 2013 at 7:19 am #

    Hi Jennifer,
    Good column in The Land this week. The critics of farming are well entrenched in the moral high ground in the minds of this ill informed new elite that you speak of. People like Diamond and The Wentworth Group inflate their perceived virtue by unfairly denigrating and disparaging the virtues of production and producers. If we are to force them off the moral high ground we have to reduce their inflated reputations. That’s not easy and could be ugly but it is totally necessary.

  80. Neville November 16, 2013 at 8:13 am #

    Japan has thrown in the towel and will not be cutting co2 emissions in any meaningful way.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2013/11/japan-slashes-forget-a-25-cut-in-co2-emissions-now-the-target-is-3-8/

    Just proves again what BS they are feeding us on CAGW mitigation. But Lukey and bazza are so maths challenged they’ll still insist we can fix their CAGW problem by reducing our tiny emissions by 5% by 2020. Some donkeys just never learn.

  81. Debbie November 16, 2013 at 8:14 am #

    Luke,
    You are shooting yourself in your own foot by linking to sites like hotwhopper.
    Rather similarly to the media that files stuff under ‘science’. . .such as here:

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/marshall-islands-criticise-australia-over-emissions-20131115-2xmfi.html

    It is politics masquerading as academics, with a high dose of the over inflated, hubristic, contemptuous attitude that Nick Cater has described very well in his book.

  82. Debbie November 16, 2013 at 8:32 am #

    This article is IMHO ironically relevant to Cater’s book:

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/true-blue-mountains-of-cash-go-begging-20131114-2xjqw.html

    These people are being labelled as ‘too stoic’.
    HUH?
    Aren’t they just used to getting on with their own lives and minding their own business?

  83. Neville November 16, 2013 at 9:21 am #

    But Debbie the totalitarian always knows what’s good for us. Remember Luke’s threats about sending us off to re-education camps?

    BTW looks like Labor’s clueless NBN has been on the nose for years, but the Gillard govt did their best to cover it up.
    What a waste, what a con just like the mitigation of their CAGW. Fraudsters the lot of them.

  84. Neville November 16, 2013 at 9:56 am #

    Steve McIntyre gives another example of federally funded pseudo science. This absurd fraud and corruption has been going on for at least 40 years.

    http://climateaudit.org/2013/11/11/a-scathing-indictment-of-federally-funded-nutrition-research/#comments

    Steve also highlights more stupid nonsense from Lewandowsky. Geeezzzz imagine paying for this fraudulent rubbish.

    But where else would this dummy find employment?

    http://climateaudit.org/2013/11/13/another-absurd-lewandowsky-correlation/

  85. Luke November 16, 2013 at 10:14 am #

    Sorry on the re-education camps. I gave up as you have a modicum of intelligence to get in. And this morning proves it – we get three cut and pastes from the newspaper boy as if we’re unable to visit the cesspits ourselves. Neville must have such a gut ache by only living on pig slops disinformation for sustenance.

  86. Neville November 16, 2013 at 10:15 am #

    More on the Gillard /Wilson slush fund story. The police will be heading back to court in a couple of weeks.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/how_gillard_nearly_killed_a_story_and_the_medias_freedom/#commentsmore

  87. Neville November 16, 2013 at 10:20 am #

    I’ve just added another interesting yarn about the Gillard/Wilson slush fund Luke. But I’m always happy to oblige.
    Of course re-education camps are the fond longings of the closet totalitarian and groupthinker.

  88. Another Ian November 16, 2013 at 10:45 am #

    Jen, FYI

    A view from outside

    http://thepointman.wordpress.com/2013/11/15/australia-you-beaut/

  89. spangled drongo November 16, 2013 at 11:28 am #

    Thanks for the links Neville and others.

    Luke needs leading to water even if you can’t make him drink.

    But during the 70s I bet his flares would have been wet with the worry of global cooling too:

  90. bazza November 16, 2013 at 12:09 pm #

    More national shame in the eyes of the world from the UN conference in Warsaw with Australia awarded more “fossil of the day” awards for acts tantamount to denial on AGW. You would have to go back to Hansonism and Howards refusal to deny the xenophobia to find equivalent shameful politics. Maybe this blog is to informed environmentalism as Hanson was to multiculturalism – and the audiences could well be more than half-correlated.?

  91. spangled drongo November 16, 2013 at 12:20 pm #

    The eyes of your world maybe Baz.

    But they are arse-up on so many things.

    Including siddown professionals on climate change:

    https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/bennelong-papers/2013/11/aboriginality-profession/

  92. cohenite November 16, 2013 at 12:20 pm #

    luke, you have a graph above purporting to show CO2 and temperature since 1959 with both normalised. However HadCrut 3 is based on anomalies which distorts the normalised trend.

    A better way of comparing CO2 and temperature since 1959 is to normalise both to the level of CO2 at 1959 which was 310 ppm; when you’ve done that this graph results:

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1959/mean:12/offset:310/plot/none

  93. Debbie November 16, 2013 at 12:24 pm #

    http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/Prod/Parlment/hansart.nsf/V3Key/LC20131112047?open&refNavID=HA8_1
    I believe this recent debate in NSW Parliament is somewhat relevant to the issues raised on this post and is also relevant to some of what Jen had to say in her column in the Land.

    Bazza,
    Unlike you apparently, I have NEVER been inclined to be ashamed of Australia. Australia is actually a highly regarded global citizen.
    Of course we’re NOT PERFECT. . .but you are using unsubstantiated HYPERBOWL (!) . . . heavily laced with that homework exercise I suggested to you up thread.

    I think you need to get out more. . .and it truly won’t hurt you to read Nick Cater’s book. He’s an accomplished writer, well educated and does have some very interesting insights. It is a best seller for many of the same reasons that “thinking fast and slow’ is a best seller.

  94. Robert November 16, 2013 at 12:56 pm #

    Individual European nationalities are just great. But when they decide to come together…think Eurovision. Nothing more absurd or spewful.

    If there is a way to fill me with pride, it’s to be mocked by carbon-profiteering Europeans, and by the impressionable hicks who suck up to the Eurospivs in the hope of seeming sophisticated (when in fact they are being pathetically manipulated). The blatant rigging of the EU carbon price – by “member” nations who have never done anything else but exploit and betray one another for millennia – should be the big convincer for Aussies. Stay out of the EU pit. That’s OUT.

    I’m just angry if we missed one “fossil of the day” award. We want ’em all! Clean sweep of the awards!

  95. cohenite November 16, 2013 at 1:08 pm #

    bazza says:

    “Maybe this blog is to informed environmentalism as Hanson was to multiculturalism – and the audiences could well be more than half-correlated.?”

    Geez bazza, your slip is really showing now.

    Hanson is a goose no doubt but multiculturalism is a joke, a bad one; it is a joke because it misunderstands that diversity relies on a Western democratic model; if immigrants come here they have to support that model; if you want to talk about the major source of discord in the world, Islam, and its hostility towards the secular Western democratic model, let rip and I’ll gladly accommodate you.

  96. Debbie November 16, 2013 at 1:40 pm #

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/carbon-budget-drives-agenda-20131115-2xm96.html

    No shortage of relevant MSM material at the moment.
    One of today’s offerings filed under ‘science’.

  97. spangled drongo November 16, 2013 at 1:48 pm #

    Pauline, as a fish and chip shop proprietor was not up to the job of putting the complex facts on the necessity of assimilation across to the mainstream but that doesn’t alter the fact that it is the only way a nation can survive and advance in the long term.

    https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2013/11/haria-law/

  98. toby November 16, 2013 at 2:55 pm #

    No point in replying really Luke re my points vs your counters it wont go anywhere, i have looked into it myself for many years . Since when has the MWP rested on one piece of evidence?!

    can you really not see that co2 and temp over the 20th century were not closely correlated?!

    So NASA didnt discover more heat was escaping to space? i am guilty of not researching that one and it does fit my paradigm so that one may be wrong, thought your link was overly aggressive and condescending which gets my back up immediately.

    Never really been a WUWT fan, I did meet him at a sceptic meeting in melb and was not very impressed myself.

    as for Emanuel’s PDI work …didnt we see that ripped apart…why no focus on 50m and 200m depths?!! you are guilty of finding something that suits you and using it like gospel. typhoon frequency and intensity have not been trending up?

    all my points I believe have been debated many times over the last 10 years by us here and have led me to believe what i do. You are amazed…but so equally am i!

    And fortunately for common sense we are scrapping the insane carbon tax and I am very proud of Australia’s stand against this madness.

  99. toby November 16, 2013 at 3:00 pm #

    Around 10 years you suggested to me if i was so confident CAGW was crap I could have a bet with james annan…i tried, offered a 10k bet but not on even terms since he was so convinced temp was running away.
    He refused my bet…..just as well for him!

    You love to refer to it as a question of risk, but whilst i know you are happy to go down a nuclear path…nobody else is, japan has even just downgraded its 2020 committments.

    The world is not acting so you better hope we sceptics are correct i guess?

  100. bazza November 16, 2013 at 3:04 pm #

    Yes, very relevant MSM articles including the Global Carbon Project – as Dr Raupach said ” inaccurate information is written in sceptic blogs and websites all the time, spreading the idea that CO2 only represents only a minuscule portion of the atmosphere, and therefore does not matter. ”That argument is invalid on half a dozen grounds.”

    Or the notion that global warming has stopped over the past 15 years, which is sometimes repeated by commentators in the mainstream media”.

  101. toby November 16, 2013 at 3:05 pm #

    I just wish we would scrap the renewable energy targets as well.

    and Abbotts direct action plan or whatever the hell he calls his almost as useless policy!

  102. spangled drongo November 16, 2013 at 3:22 pm #

    A classroom many could do with today:

    “The increasing lack of close familiarity with what it takes to make and transport commodities has proved to be fertile ground for breeding a fast-spreading form of infantile mindset, which is as divorced from economic reality as the mindset of primitive cargo cultists. As experience is providing progressively less of a countervailing force, the remedy has to lie in public education.

    Instead of vacuously and mindlessly teaching kids the virtues and moral equivalence of patently backward and inferior cultures, ancient and present-day, they should be given the opportunity to understand and appreciate what underpins our material prosperity; and what is required to maintain and increase this prosperity, if we are to live comfortable lives and also help those in need.”

    https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/peter-smith/2013/11/fast-boat-enlightenment/

  103. Debbie November 16, 2013 at 3:56 pm #

    Bazza,
    I am of course not at all surprised that you latched onto that one and then did an absolutely spectacular job of totally missing the point.
    It was politics masquerading as academia and the embedded attitudes of the “Australian Ruling Class” that Nick Cater examines in his book.
    It wouldn’t hurt for you to read it. . .it may help you to catch up a bit.

  104. Larry Fields November 17, 2013 at 7:43 am #

    November 16th, 2013 at 9:56 am. Neville wrote:
    “Steve McIntyre gives another example of federally funded pseudo science. This absurd fraud and corruption has been going on for at least 40 years.”
    http://climateaudit.org/2013/11/11/a-scathing-indictment-of-federally-funded-nutrition-research/#comments

    This is huge. Here’s what an Establishment website — supported by AAAS — has to say.

    “40 years of federal nutrition research fatally flawed

    University of South Carolina study shows flaws in NHANES data

    “Four decades of nutrition research funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) may be invalid because the method used to collect the data was seriously flawed, according to a new study by the Arnold School of Public Health at the University of South Carolina.

    “The study, led by Arnold School exercise scientist and epidemiologist Edward Archer, has demonstrated significant limitations in the measurement protocols used in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The findings, published in PLOS ONE (The Public Library of Science), reveal that a majority of the nutrition data collected by the NHANES are not ‘physiologically credible,’ Archer said.”

    Read more here.
    http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-10/uosc-4yo100913.php

  105. Neville November 17, 2013 at 7:45 am #

    Looks like alternative fuels make about as much sense as alternative energy. And that’s zip sense. Just more stupid super expensive nonsense by Bush and Obama.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/16/schadenfreude-and-a-they-told-you-so-moment-ap-investigation-corn-based-ethanol-causes-environment-damage/#more-97541

  106. Neville November 17, 2013 at 7:56 am #

    Thanks for that Larry, but you’re wasting your time trying to get Luke and bazza interested in anything that may require simple kindy sums.
    They can’t even add, subtract, divide or multiply at a level of a typical five year old so your links are way too profound for them to understand.

  107. spangled drongo November 17, 2013 at 9:39 am #

    This makes you realise how little we know about CO2.

    Ian Plimer would be smiling.

    To all his dumb detractors it was apparently an UNKNOWN unknown:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/16/another-known-unknown-volcanic-outgassing-of-co2/#more-97554

    But it makes Abbott’s removal of the fish hooks inside our hair shirt a good idea.

  108. Luke November 17, 2013 at 11:25 am #

    More climate porn via our climate crims from disinformation fear and loathing Wattsup. From “I’m not a scientist” and “don’t know what I’m saying” climate crim Neville, the paperboy. Just think boys your level of influence on anything 0.000000000000000

    See Toby confronted with some science instead of bilge had done a runner.

    Boring.

  109. spangled drongo November 17, 2013 at 12:10 pm #

    Go and read some Quadrant Luke.

    Improve your rationality no end.

  110. Johnathan Wilkes November 17, 2013 at 12:56 pm #

    Just mentioning this here, so that others may not be repeating it with glee.

    MATT RIDLEY had a good one liner on the Bolt report, saying “why use 14th century technology?” referring to wind power.

    On the face of it makes a good line but we don’t use 14th century technology to harness wind power.
    Present efficiency of wind turbines is several magnitudes better than the old windmills.

    Same for hydro, they were in use at the time of Adam’s father in law but we improved the efficiency a hundred fold.

    Having said that I still think persisting with wind power is futile, there is simply no more improvement in the pipeline, it’s unreliable and way too expensive and because of the limitations it ever be thus.

    I keep my options on Solar open but there is the same problem limited power/sq metre and it’s not going to increase, thank God for that too, we’d really fry if it did.

    The technology might improve and if it does the cost may come down but as long as the storage issue remains unresolved we still need standby power.

  111. spangled drongo November 17, 2013 at 1:39 pm #

    Jonathan, the high-aspect ratio of modern wind foils don’t improve performance much over the old low-aspect foils when the wind angle is 90 degrees. At this angle low-aspect can even be more efficient. But yes, unless good batteries are invented they have virtually no commercial future. As a racing yacht designer I’ve been trying to extract the max out of wind power all my life and there is a definite limit. Whether it is modern wind turbines or America’s Cup cats, however magnificent they may be, they are limited in commercial application.

    Solar is in the same situation.

    With good storage that would allow us to be free of the power grid, wind and solar would make a lot more sense.

    Using the grid as a “battery” is having yourself on.

  112. Neville November 17, 2013 at 2:55 pm #

    You have to feel for Roy Spencer trying to debate a moron defending his mad cult.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/11/typhoon-haiyan-my-debate-on-cnn-piers-morgan-live-last-night/#comments

    How could any nong be this dense?

  113. cohenite November 17, 2013 at 3:16 pm #

    Poor Roy against this twit ostensibly someone called mark hertsgaard; I don’t believe that; that sounds like a character from the Thor movies; this guy is a ring-in, possibly luke.

  114. spangled drongo November 17, 2013 at 3:21 pm #

    Cohers, Luke’s not that handsome, or polite, or even factual ☺.

  115. Neville November 17, 2013 at 3:27 pm #

    Yes Cohers he makes about as much sense as Luke. But I still think that Ridley’s Greening the planet video is about as good a way to spend 19 minutes as you could find.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-nsU_DaIZE That stupid fool debating ????? Spencer would learn something if he had the brains to watch it.

  116. Debbie November 17, 2013 at 4:30 pm #

    OK. . .got my copy of “The Lucky Culture” back today.
    One of the chapters that resonated for me was chapter twelve “The Moral Persuaders”.
    In this chapter Cater examines those totems and prejudices that Jen mentions above in relation to the rise of the Human Rights Commission. He asks some very interesting questions about its mandate and its actual purpose and one of his conclusions is that: “at best, the expansion of the human rights industry is a misplacement of resources….”
    and at the very end of the chapter….
    “…but if, after 37 years it has failed to complete it’s task, it cannot be up to the job….. Ironically a body intended to promote unity has become a force for division. Perhaps the time has come to abandon this search for blemishes, and celebrate the virtues recognised by all”

    Sound familiar?

  117. Robert November 17, 2013 at 4:37 pm #

    Good Speccie piece on self-sabotage:
    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9078561/the-real-energy-scandal/

    Excerpt:
    “This is where Germany’s present agony becomes instructive. The infrastructure of the most costly power ever invented, offshore wind, is well-advanced there, though in Britain it remains in its infancy. The result, as Der Spiegel reported recently, is that green subsidies have already ‘reached levels comparable only to the eurozone bailouts’. This year, German consumers will pay a total of €20 billion for power from wind, solar panels and biomass — of which a staggering €17 billion is subsidy.”

  118. Luke November 17, 2013 at 4:40 pm #

    Because Ridley is slick and tells idiots like Neville want he wants to know Neville believes it all. What a tricky dicky little story “it’s not published but they guy told me”, he ignores most of the agronomic benefit from cultivation, herbicides and varietal improvement, what is being retired is marginal now rooted thanks to agriculture, if you ignore this big list of extinctions on islands and now Australia is an island ….blah blah , yea most of the other extinctions happened before his start date, tells us a whole bunch of stuff we already knew, glosses over water resources, glosses over fire regime impacts on savannas – a massive area, CO2 test tubes don’t equal FACE, Amazon is not greening ….. blah blah

    3rd world charcoal use on Haiti is RENEWABLE under Ridley – HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA what a slimey little trick for the audience

    But our non-scientist paperboy Neville who lives on shit denier blogs for brekky, lunch and dinner and doesn’t ever check an alternative point of view just swallows it hook line and sinker – what a dope.

  119. spangled drongo November 17, 2013 at 5:02 pm #

    Here’s one to have with your beer Luke:

    http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/screenhunter_75-nov-16-07-49.jpg

  120. spangled drongo November 17, 2013 at 5:09 pm #

    Luke, tell us ONE thing Paul Ehrlich ever got right.

  121. John Sayers November 17, 2013 at 5:13 pm #

    Your mates at the CSIRO disagree with you Luke.

    http://www.csiro.au/Portals/Media/Deserts-greening-from-rising-CO2.aspx

    That Roy Spencer interview was disgusting!! A journalist quoting the 97% lie – doesn’t he research anything?

    Here’s a great story by two journalists who hired a people smuggler to get them to Xmas Island.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/17/magazine/the-impossible-refugee-boat-lift-to-christmas-island.html?hpw&rref=magazine&_r=0

  122. Luke November 17, 2013 at 5:47 pm #

    The CSIRO paper is bunk actually.

    SD – Goddards’s just a denialist thinktank. Not even a person. They’re paid to gish gallop a whopper per day. Obviously the last whopper simply truncates the data set to HIDE THE INCLINE ! It’s horseshit as usual.

  123. Luke November 17, 2013 at 5:49 pm #

    And Spencer easily won that video debate by keeping quiet. You’ve got to be more sophisticated than that to get an experienced player like Spencer. Give that journo the arse.

  124. John Sayers November 17, 2013 at 7:00 pm #

    why is it bunk Luke?

  125. spangled drongo November 17, 2013 at 7:22 pm #

    Luke shown up for the dumb denialist he is !

    CO2 levels in 1998 were 370ppm as per Goddard’s graph:

    http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/co2-concentration-in-the-atmosphere-1959-1998_e38f#

    And as per RSS, global temps have dropped 0.08c since then:

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1998/to:%202013/trend

    That graph of Goddard’s is spot on.

  126. Luke November 17, 2013 at 8:21 pm #

    Jeez John – by now I thought you’d have known my responses off by heart. It’s simply modelled and grossly deficient in leaving out the biggest driver – well researched and documented global changes in fire regime towards fewer savanna fires leading to woodland thickening. That landscape to observing satellites appears greener due to increases in the non-grassy component- i.e. woody shrubs and small trees. It’s entirely non-controversial.

    Also why Cape York with more fires doesn’t show the effect. Do try to keep up John.

    CO2 – pigs bum. Now to be fair there’s probably a bit of CO2 fertilisation in there – but not detectable among the noise at field data resolution.

  127. Luke November 17, 2013 at 8:28 pm #

    SD – starting from 1998 – HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAA

    You clown.
    Hey check this – http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1995/to:%202013/trend

    now peez orf and stop wasting our time eh? Goddard just a denier on the tea party dime. It’s only horseshit for the gullible faithful nutters.

  128. spangled drongo November 17, 2013 at 9:30 pm #

    So what, Luke?

    Don’t be so pathetic.

    370 ppm was reached in 1998 and since then, with the increase to 400 ppm, the GAT as measured by RSS has dropped 0.08c.

    Goddard is spot on and you are simply WRONG.

  129. Luke November 17, 2013 at 10:23 pm #

    Moronic.

  130. spangled drongo November 18, 2013 at 6:50 am #

    Luke, you incredible denier of the bleedin’ obvious, let met put it in simple terms that even you should be able to understand.

    1998 was the hottest year in the NASA RSS calendar and at that time the CO2 levels were 370 ppm.

    Today, with CO2 levels at ~ 400ppm RSS temps are 0.08c lower.

    Got it???

    Now that doesn’t represent any sort of global warming, let alone man made.

  131. toby November 18, 2013 at 7:54 am #

    I did nt do a runner at all Luke, but if you cant see that co2 and temp did not track each other well last century I cant see any point in discussing it with you. Even your own chart shows its lack of correlation.

    And you must know that the MWP etc are not underpinned by one ice core alone!? Goodness gracious what a cop out,

  132. Jennifer Marohasy November 18, 2013 at 3:06 pm #

    Now the Coorong is too fresh… http://www.mythandthemurray.org/coorong-too-fresh-ruppia-disappearing/

  133. bazza November 18, 2013 at 3:17 pm #

    sd ( sea dog?) would define sea level by a line from the top of one wave to the bottom of the trough.
    I suppose I have to spell out that 1998 was a near record El Nino, the crest, and 2010 was extreme La Nina, the trough. It is called extreme natural variation. and there is some evidence that climate change is actually increasing ENSO variability so that would make it also a bit of unnatural variation if it was well understood.

  134. Robert November 18, 2013 at 7:47 pm #

    The most radical and sudden swing between extreme El Nino and extreme La Nina was that from El Nino 1914-15 and La Nina 1916-18.

    Of course, you’d have to be phenomenally literal-minded to read much into that. The contradictions between what ENSO indicates and what actually happens are the real “extremes”.

    Sadly, the phenomenally literal-minded walk amongst us, and can appear like normal, functioning people at moments. Then you give ’em an acronym or a factoid or a stat…and the zombie transformation begins.

  135. Ian George November 19, 2013 at 6:02 am #

    1914-1915 was characterised by an extreme drought.
    1916-1918 had some extreme cyclones. The autumn of 1917 is still one of the coldest autumns on record.

    2009-10 Extremely dry and hot (esp spring 2009)
    Then
    Spring 2010 – wettest spring on record
    summer 2010-11 – 2nd wettest summer on record
    autumn 2011 – coldest autumn since 1950

  136. toby November 19, 2013 at 7:17 am #

    At last adults are back in charge.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/abbotts-historic-chogm-rider/story-fn59nm2j-1226762841385
    “Australia and Canada had reservations about the language and indicated that they could not support a Green Capital Fund at this time.”

  137. Robert November 19, 2013 at 9:27 am #

    The El Ninos a century apart, those of 1902-3 and of 2002-3 were devastating in my region. These were classified as weak El Ninos. (1902-3 was devastating everywhere, of course. Someone on this forum described the current Qld drought as “AGW creeping”. Qld in 1902 must have been doing its own AQW, with ultra-turbo and supercellular octane.)

    The two most powerful El Ninos, 1997-8 and the 1982-3 biggie, were fairly benign in my region. That of 1997-8 didn’t real hurt Oz much at all, though 1982-3 was a shocker in most of the country.

    Just remember that the thirties are still deemed by the BoM to have been without El Nino and that 1938-9 is actually classified as La Nina – and not just a weak one! Compare that to what actually happened in 1938-9. The rain eventually came in buckets, but it only came after Black Friday and all that heat.

    Just imagine what the literalists would make of an event like Black Friday during a marked La Nina if it were to occur now. Not to mention that 1938-9 heatwave. We make a huge mistake feeding terms like ENSO, PDO, AMO etc to people whose thinking is too mechanistic and literal. These rough observation sets are handy and may lead to better things. But don’t give ’em to climate zombies!

  138. toby November 20, 2013 at 9:44 am #

    A year ago or so I made a suggestion that believers in CAGW were also likely to be supporters of the NBN. Comments that followed this statement strongly suggested I was correct.

    It appears abundantly clear that the NBN as planned is a disaster.

    “A senior analyst in telecoms, media and technology at stockbroker BBY, Mark McDonnell, told an NBN-focused conference in Sydney the project was “the worst idea ever devised in the history of Australian telecommunications” and this was “in serious trouble”. “The magnitude of this mistake is truly staggering,” Mr McDonnell said.

    “It is the Fukushima of Australia’s telecommunications industry … The NBN is a testament to the naivety of our policymakers and the gullibility of our political class.”

    – See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/in-depth/ziggy-switkowski-vows-to-fix-nbn-the-fukushima-of-the-telco-industry/story-e6frgaif-1226763868282#sthash.qalObo03.dpuf

    Maybe we are also right about the C in CAGW?!…And we are most certainly correct about our own policy responses.

  139. jennifer Marohasy November 22, 2013 at 12:50 pm #

    Just filing this here: http://skepticlawyer.com.au/2013/11/20/why-conservatives-dont-learn-from-history/
    How conservatives have been on the wrong side of history…

  140. Larry Fields November 29, 2013 at 12:44 pm #

    On another thread,
    Comment from: jennifer November 28th, 2013 at 12:14 pm
    “Thanks everyone for your contributions. I’m going to close off comment here for another week. Will reopen next Wednesday evening, December 4th.”

    Last night (Wednesday, California Standard Time), I wrote a tentative comment for that other thread. Lo and behold! When I went to post it, the thread was already closed.

    I appreciate your efforts. And I realize that the blogging time in your busy schedule is limited. But the timing of the open window is creating a small problem for those of us on the other side of the Pacific Pond.

    Here’s a modest suggestion. Please be more specific about when that other thread will be open. And please post a chart for converting from Oz Time to other time zones. (I hope that I don’t have to rustle myself out of bed at some ungodly hour in order to post a comment.)

    Thanks.

  141. jennifer November 29, 2013 at 2:11 pm #

    Hey Larry

    Sorry! And point noted about being specific about times… we are ahead of almost everyone in the world here in Queensland, Australia.

    But if you post the “tentative comment” here and/or email it to me at jennifermarohasy at gmail.com I will post it at the thread.

    Otherwise, I shall make sure the blog is open for Wednesday evening next … California Standard Time.

    Thanks for your efforts. Best, Jen

  142. Larry Fields November 29, 2013 at 6:02 pm #

    TENTATIVE COMMENT

    Comment from: jennifer November 23rd, 2013 at 2:08 pm
    “Beth, I don’t actually think science ever really happens the way Popper suggests.”

    Larry’s comment #1. What about the Polywater fiasco of the late 1960s and early 1970s? This story is too long to describe adequately here. However one can read all about it at Wikipedia. Here’s a long story short.

    A Russian physicist thought that he had discovered a new form of water. Supposedly, the freezing point and density were different from ordinary water. This would have been truly revolutionary science if it had panned out. Kuhn would have been proud.

    The first fly in the ointment was the fact that other scientists had difficulty in reproducing the finding. Some could; others could not.

    Richard Feynman had an insightful biology-related take on the controversy.

    The coup de grace came from a scientist who had a great sense of humor. After playing a vigorous game of handball one day, he collected a bit of his own sweat. It turned out that this sample tested positive as ‘Polywater’.

    These days, scientists are loathe to discuss the Polywater story in mixed company. The initial ‘finding’ was an artefact of dirty glassware.

    The Polywater hypothesis was thoroughly falsified. This is one of the reasons that I feel comfortable with Popper’s popularization of the word, “falsifiable.”

    Jennifer also wrote:
    “And I note that Popper was an economist rather than a scientist.”

    Larry’s comment #2: A person who didn’t know you better could easily misinterpret this as follows:
    We should not take Popper seriously, because he didn’t have the right piece of paper.

    Larry’s comment #3: On a Kuhn-related side note, I have known two people who made revolutionary discoveries in the sciences — including macroeconomics, physics, and (yikes!) mathematics. Speaking of the devil, here’s a maths problem from one of these men. It’s absolutely unsolvable with integral calculus, but it lends itself to a much simpler albeit non-obvious approach.

    While out for a ride, you go through a long puddle of water, and get your bicycle tires wet. Then you make a right-angle turn onto a side street. The wet tires make a crescent shape on the pavement, because the rear wheel is always taking a shortcut in its ‘attempt’ to catch up with the front wheel. You know the distance between the hubs of your bicycle. What is the area of the crescent?

    Anyway, only one of these two guys is beginning to get the recognition that he deserves. Both men possessed a special gift for pissing off their peers.

    Oops, I almost forgot the obligatory remark about the Flying CO2 Monster. Here goes: AGW is the zombified 21st Century equivalent of Polywater.

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