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Cooking Books for Hot Summers

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has “confirmed” that it is been the hottest summer on record in Australia. But I’m sceptical.

The “record breaking hot summer” is apparently a statistical fact derived from simply averaging across 104 or 112 localities – depending on whom at the Bureau is providing the information.  No mention is made of how the temperatures for all of these localities have been “corrected” over recent years through the ACORN program [2]. In general the “corrections” are such that temperature records for specific localities pre-1970 are adjusted down, while records for specific localities post-1970 are adjusted up.

In their media release [1] attention is drawn to the town of Moomba in South Australia which apparently had the highest temperature recorded at 49.6 degrees C. Interestingly the station of Moomba only opened in 1972 – this of course is not reported in the same media release.

I’ve been trying to get a good long temperature series for some rainfall hindcasting that I’ve been doing for southeast Queensland, and have found that none of the Brisbane temperature recording stations have had any permanence. While once the main temperature recording station for Brisbane was in a bay-side suburb, in recent years the temperature recording station has been moved to the middle of East Brisbane just south of the city’s CBD – where coincidently it tends to be hotter.

The Bureau’s media release goes on to claim this summer follows a pattern of extremely hot summers in various parts of the world over the last few years.

The phenomena whereby government climate scientists correct the historical temperature record to support their theory of anthropogenic global warming is not unique to Australia. In fact the Australian Bureau of Meteorology may be simply following instructions from The Team. The Team are, of course, that notorious in-group who run policy at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. In the leaked Climategate emails there is discussion involving The Team focused on the need to reduce global sea surface temperatures, SST, during the early part of the 20th Century by about 0.15 degree C.. By reducing, the blip in SST temperatures for example between 1940 and 1945, it is suggested that the rate and magnitude of global warming for the period 1910 to 1945 can be made to not exceed the rate and magnitude of warming for the 35 year to 2009.

Interestingly recent “corrections down” to historical global temperatures by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS, have been concentrated in this period, Figure 1. The net effect of the adjustments has been to generate a more smoothly increasing global temperature since 1880, and reduce a warming blip that occurred in the late 1930s and early 1940s.

The US National Climatic Data Center has also been making “corrections” to the historical global temperature record, Figure 2.  Indeed through administrative means January 1915 can be made to appear significantly cooler than January 2013, Figure 2.

This used to be known as cooking the books, however, of course, our esteemed climate scientists have detailed justifications for all the changes they have been busily making to all the global historical temperature databases.

*****

1. Issued March 1, 2013: Bureau of Meteorology confirms it’s been the hottest summer on record… http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/ho/20130301.shtml
2. A team of independent auditors, bloggers and scientists went through the BOM “High Quality” dataset and found significant errors, omissions and inexplicable adjustments, read more here… http://joannenova.com.au/2012/06/threat-of-anao-audit-means-australias-bom-throws-out-temperature-set-starts-again-gets-same-results/
3. Figures 1 and 2 are courtesy of Ole Humlum, Professor of Geosiences at the University of Oslo, Norway.  Click on the above charts for a slightly improved view. Visit http://www.climate4you.com for the best view and background information.

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80 Responses to “Cooking Books for Hot Summers”

Pages: « 1 [2] Show All

  1. Comment from: spangled drongo


    Wotcher doin’ these days, Luke?

    Any adventures?

  2. Comment from: spangled drongo


    Over 200 years of global warming on a realistic scale.

    IOW, more signal and less noise:

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/best/to:1980/plot/rss-land/plot/uah-land

  3. Comment from: cohenite


    It is SD; I can’t link through my computer; my better half must have put a child block on it. No, I see luke has commented.

  4. Comment from: John Sayers


    ABCWatch has done it again.

    http://abcnewswatch.blogspot.com.au/

  5. Comment from: John Sayers


    WWF and GetUp are now out there promoting the BoM lies – damn them!

    What can we do? Everyone believes them. Everyone on Facebook is sharing GetUp’s poster and giving it the thumbs up.

  6. Comment from: Neville


    John I wouldn’t get too concerned because a lot of people are waking up as well.

    Meanwhile the Bolter keeps hammering away about the broken models. Also he had good posts yesterday on the hopeless Flannery.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_models_are_broken_by_the_standards_warmists_set/

  7. Comment from: spangled drongo


    John, in the short term it is very frustrating when none of the MSM or the rest of the warmers are the slightest bit sceptical of these dumb claims but one thing we can be confident about is that if we are right [and I am convinced we are] these proclamations, predictions and projections will come back to bite them very badly.

    I just hope that we [plus our children and grand children] can afford the time that we will have to wait.

  8. Comment from: Neville


    Spangled not just the time but also the wasted/borrowed billions $ flushed down the drain returning zero on every dollar.
    The sums are so easy to understand it leaves no room for any excuse for this criminal waste of our money.

  9. Comment from: spangled drongo


    This is something that is equally stupid and desperate and will bite them hard:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/05/lucia-drops-some-reality-on-the-gorebots/

  10. Comment from: el gordo


    NAO expected to remain negative, in line with Sol.

    http://icecap.us/images/uploads/eps_nao_bias.png

  11. Comment from: el gordo


    Latest on heatwaves…

    http://www.co2science.org/subject/h/summaries/heatwaves.php

  12. Comment from: Neville


    If this latest NASA data on water vapour is correct the positive feedbacks from an increase in co2 in the atmosphere has been proven wrong.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/06/nasa-satellite-data-shows-a-decline-in-water-vapor/#more-81521

    If true all OECD countries have wasted at least a trillion dollars on this blithering nonsense and OZ should dump the idiot co2 tax at once.

  13. Comment from: Neville


    BTW Bob Tisdale has already shown that globally precipitation has decreased. Rather wrecks the theory of CAGW.

    http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/12/27/model-data-precipitation-comparison-cmip5-ipcc-ar5-model-simulations-versus-satellite-era-observations/

  14. Comment from: Neville


    The Bolter calls for Flannery’s sacking and gets stuck into the angry summer nonsense.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_fact_checking_flannerys_angry_summer_propaganda/#commentsmore

  15. Comment from: ianl8888


    @Neville

    That’s the 2nd credible report in 3 months saying the same thing – global humidity is gently decreasing. Major negative feedback (water vapour) in CAGW is KAPUT, is the message

    It won’t matter though. The scientific illiterates running the MSM will ignore this

  16. Comment from: Minister for Truth


    “It won’t matter though. The scientific illiterates running the MSM will ignore this”

    Its not just the illiterates in MSM that will ignore it, but the illiterates in academia will be going their best as well, aided and abetted by a biased, secretive,disfunctional and thoroughly unreliable Peer Review system…particularly in the GW arena.

  17. Comment from: Debbie


    Good to see a new post from Jen,
    Great article in the Land last week Jen.
    I have been in amongst the MDBA and other ‘usual suspects’ in the last few days and it is a relief to read this post that puts this issue back into some perspective.
    I am thoroughly tired of listening to and arguing with totally impractical and highly political ‘motherhood’ statements.
    We now have a ‘plan’ that isn’t what most of us would define as a ‘plan’ & a ‘water recovery strategy’ that does not contain what we would define as a ‘strategy’.
    It ‘piggy backs’ straight onto the nonsense stuff that Jen highlights here.
    All alarmist ‘precautionary principle’ BS that just spends money producing more alarmist pp BS!

  18. Comment from: el gordo


    “It won’t matter though. The scientific illiterates running the MSM will ignore this”

    Its only a matter of time (as nature is on our side) before the msm sees reality, but that’s someway off.

    Here’s what we are up against, its nature’s fault the models aren’t working?

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/achenblog/wp/2013/03/07/forecasts-and-probabilities/

  19. Comment from: cohenite


    EG, from your link:

    “Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) writes: “Chaos in weather systems is technically deterministic – it happens even without introducing random elements.”

    That’s great; non-random factors are both chaotic and deterministic. Koutsoyiannis shows why he and the rest of these delinquents are over-educated nitwits:

    http://itia.ntua.gr/getfile/1130/1/documents/causality_4.pdf

  20. Comment from: el gordo


    Our ABC is a disgrace, a propaganda machine which must be dismantled. Hockey is the man to do it.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-08/climate-study/4561164?section=australianetworknews

  21. Comment from: Neville


    Anthony has a first go at the Marcott study. Can’t wait for SM to bring in his big forensic guns and blow this idiocy out of the water.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/08/marcott-et-al-claim-of-unprecedented-warming-compared-to-gisp-ice-core-data/#more-81694

    Mann is very gung ho about this new HS study so it could/should be a real bummer.

  22. Comment from: Neville


    Here is another Alley graph from Gisp2 Greenland, finishing in 2000. Wonder what caused the Younger Dryas 11,400 years ago?

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/alley2000/alley2000.gif

    Interesting snow accumulation over the Holocene shown as metres per year. No doubt that warmer temps increases precipitation.
    But where is the line between more snow and ice and more glacier advance and more ice bergs?
    Remember that the Glacier Girl P38 bomber was found under 268 feet of ice after just 50 years of snowfall.

  23. Comment from: Mark A


    Neville,

    Remember that the Glacier Girl P38 bomber was found under 268 feet of ice after just 50 years of snowfall.

    Even if we accept that half of that was simply sinking into the snow by its own weight, as some suggest, that is still a heck of a lot of snow depths in 50 years.

  24. Comment from: el gordo


    ‘Wonder what caused the Younger Dryas 11,400 years ago?’

    I automatically assumed it was a well placed comet, which put a damper on warming. The Holocene is different to the other interglacials, more a gradual sloping than the usual horrific fall from grace.

  25. Comment from: el gordo


    Its still just a theory, but fits the null hypothesis.

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825211000262

  26. Comment from: el gordo


    No matter what the cause, it appears confined to the northern hemisphere.

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618212000109

  27. Comment from: el gordo


    ‘…non-random factors are both chaotic and deterministic.’

    Chaos theory…

  28. Comment from: Jennifer Marohasy » King Tides at Cleveland Point, and Sea Level Change Over the Holocene


    […] PS. I have shall be doing an assessment of the latest claims from the Bureau of Meteorology that 2013 was the hottest year ever in due course, in the meantime, this blog post from March is still very relevant http://jennifermarohasy.com/2013/03/cooking-books-for-hot-summers/ […]

  29. Comment from: Mike Mellor


    If despite all the dubious adjustments to the data, it really is getting warmer, I don’t have a problem. I’m a rational sceptic grounded in reality. I do however have a problem with anyone who claims without evidence that a warmer planet is in any way a bad thing, and wants to punish us all for it.

  30. Comment from: Peter Gilmour


    Very valid points made here Jennifer, it is a pity the climate change lobby group seem to have a stranglehold on the main stream media the ABC especially.
    I worked out at Hay in 1986 – 88 and can remember the temperature getting to the late 40′s then, also a pommy bloke working on a station told me on one stinking hot day that it was over 50% celsius under his cottage verandah.
    This whole climate change theory is complete bullshit.
    I live on the Murray River in an irrigation area, before irrigation this was sheep and wheat country with regular dust storms, plus I was born here in November 1959 in a heat wave with temperatures similar to now.
    Keep up the great work and all the best for 2014.

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