The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has “confirmed” that it is been the hottest summer on record in Australia. But I’m sceptical.
The “record breaking hot summer” is apparently a statistical fact derived from simply averaging across 104 or 112 localities – depending on whom at the Bureau is providing the information. No mention is made of how the temperatures for all of these localities have been “corrected” over recent years through the ACORN program [2]. In general the “corrections” are such that temperature records for specific localities pre-1970 are adjusted down, while records for specific localities post-1970 are adjusted up.
In their media release [1] attention is drawn to the town of Moomba in South Australia which apparently had the highest temperature recorded at 49.6 degrees C. Interestingly the station of Moomba only opened in 1972 – this of course is not reported in the same media release.
I’ve been trying to get a good long temperature series for some rainfall hindcasting that I’ve been doing for southeast Queensland, and have found that none of the Brisbane temperature recording stations have had any permanence. While once the main temperature recording station for Brisbane was in a bay-side suburb, in recent years the temperature recording station has been moved to the middle of East Brisbane just south of the city’s CBD – where coincidently it tends to be hotter.
The Bureau’s media release goes on to claim this summer follows a pattern of extremely hot summers in various parts of the world over the last few years.
The phenomena whereby government climate scientists correct the historical temperature record to support their theory of anthropogenic global warming is not unique to Australia. In fact the Australian Bureau of Meteorology may be simply following instructions from The Team. The Team are, of course, that notorious in-group who run policy at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. In the leaked Climategate emails there is discussion involving The Team focused on the need to reduce global sea surface temperatures, SST, during the early part of the 20th Century by about 0.15 degree C.. By reducing, the blip in SST temperatures for example between 1940 and 1945, it is suggested that the rate and magnitude of global warming for the period 1910 to 1945 can be made to not exceed the rate and magnitude of warming for the 35 year to 2009.
Interestingly recent “corrections down” to historical global temperatures by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS, have been concentrated in this period, Figure 1. The net effect of the adjustments has been to generate a more smoothly increasing global temperature since 1880, and reduce a warming blip that occurred in the late 1930s and early 1940s.
The US National Climatic Data Center has also been making “corrections” to the historical global temperature record, Figure 2. Indeed through administrative means January 1915 can be made to appear significantly cooler than January 2013, Figure 2.
This used to be known as cooking the books, however, of course, our esteemed climate scientists have detailed justifications for all the changes they have been busily making to all the global historical temperature databases.
*****
1. Issued March 1, 2013: Bureau of Meteorology confirms it’s been the hottest summer on record… http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/ho/20130301.shtml
2. A team of independent auditors, bloggers and scientists went through the BOM “High Quality” dataset and found significant errors, omissions and inexplicable adjustments, read more here… http://joannenova.com.au/2012/06/threat-of-anao-audit-means-australias-bom-throws-out-temperature-set-starts-again-gets-same-results/
3. Figures 1 and 2 are courtesy of Ole Humlum, Professor of Geosiences at the University of Oslo, Norway. Click on the above charts for a slightly improved view. Visit http://www.climate4you.com for the best view and background information.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Fresh thread, thanks Jen.
Noticed that Australian cartoonist John Cook (Skeptical Science) is running for the bloggies. He’s got Buckley’s chance.
El Gordo~ Cook backed out of the Bloggies. He realized he was outclassed by real science sites, and decided to whimper about ‘cheating.’
Oh, wise move.
Thanks Jen, very pertinent to what the “climate concerned” are currently proclaiming far and wide.
But honestly, the more they keep “adjusting” the past, the more their cred vanishes.
These graphs speak volumes:
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/australia/alice-springs-minima.gif
The seventies now cooler than the thirties? Now that is art. Never mind dull old science.
Seriously, we need to report this blatant distortion to the head of NASA GISS. What’s that? He’s chained to a fence right next to Daryl Hannah?
Damn! Why does Hansen always get the Daryl Hannah position?
I meant the thirties now cooler than the seventies. Oh, I don’t know what I meant in all this excitement. An 1890s heatwave and a mini ice-age in 1945! How do these creative types do it?
Only life is short. Art is eternal.
As I said on the closed thread January was hot, but the rest of the summer was not and there are big question marks around the January record; see:
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/01/australia-was-hot-and-is-hot-so-what-this-is-not-an-unusual-heat-wave/#comment-1223801
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/01/eight-reasons-the-australian-heatwave-is-not-climate-change/#more-26542
Some heads need to get together about this because this is a gigantic pup being sold to the Australian public.
Jen – here’s a post I made back in January regarding David Jones’ statements about records temperatures
“In fact the Australian Bureau of Meteorology may simply be following instructions from The Team”
Giggle.
Your’e right, Poly. Great imaginative art such as we are seeing lately from GISS and the BOM simply takes wing, is free and unfettered. It may have its powerful patrons, of course, like Vergil had Augustus.
@Polyfilla
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=2134#more-2134
Giggle, giggle
Ianl8888
with a bit of adjustment anything is possible. I know for a fact that we used the aircon less this summer
than we usually do.
Just looked at Steve McIntyre’s site where he demolished M Mann again for using data from 2005 in 2013.
And yet there is still this Nick Stokes bloke defending Mann because as he said “it was only an educational talk”
not a paper! So if it’s informal which it wasn’t, one can say anything?
Poly is doing the same, defend, defend, defend. Makes no sense, contradicts facts?
Doesn’t matter
The mind boggles.
Good to see Steve McIntyre back showing Mann and Oreskes leaving out 7 years of data to cover up more of their deceptive nonsense.
http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/02/mikes-agu-trick/#more-17336
Oreskes even complains about sceptic’s enfluence to prevent furher use of their BS. What a con, what a fraud and what a super Ponzi scheme.
Good to have you back! Not one region has a record mean for this summer, and only Southern Australia has a record maxima for this summer- while none of its subregions can manage a record max. Beats me how the whole of Australia can have a record – just goes to show that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. See http://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2013/03/03/a-tale-of-two-records/.
This is going to get interesting; following on from Ken’s excellent post Andrew Barnham and David Stockwell suggested that the BOM employs a spatial weighting on the regions and states. This produces a classic Simpson’s Paradox situation where we have a record nowhere but a record everywhere.
That is, as Ken has noted in no one particular region or state was there a record but overall there was. Is this a manifestation of Teleconnection of the sort Eric Steig pretended he had found in the Antarctic or is it statistical sleight of hand by the BOM to produce a new physical condition consistent with AGW?
@ianl8888,Warwick hasn’t tried to do what BOM did,has he? He’s going state by state. BOM has not claimed that each state is hottest ever,but nationally it sums up. He’s trying to suggest that just because individual states did not all set records,then a national one is not possible. Think about it,it’s nonsense.
Well done Ken, Cohenite and the team – it’s time this all came to a head.
When BoM was asked to explain how they got the HQ data they fobbed it off saying they don’t use it anymore therefore it’s not necessary. Now when asked to explain the replacement, the new Acorn data set, they again fob it off with some mention of a peer reviewed paper in the future meanwhile they use the data for Look at me look at me exercises.
The BoM was gaining headlines in January claiming Sydney’s temperature record for hottest day had been broken – well yes it had, by .5C – from 45.3C in 1939 – 45.8C in 2013. Hardly a case for celebrating AGW when the difference between hottest day form 74 years ago is .5C!
I still cannot understand BoM’s attitude to Casino Airport temperature record. It goes back to 1908 and the physical environment around it has had probably the least change of any site yet last year they closed it!
poly says:
“Think about it,it’s nonsense.”
Explain why its nonsense poly; consider Simpson’s Paradox in your explanation.
Jennifer writes: “The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has ‘confirmed’ that it is been the hottest summer on record in Australia. But I’m sceptical.”
Good to have you back, Jennifer.
I just wish Bob Tisdale could give his assessment of SST around OZ over the last 30 years or longer.
BTW John the Sydney of 1939 was a much smaller place ( plus POP) than the Sydney of 2013. The UHIE would be much higher than 0.5C over that period of 74 years.
In “Cool It” Lomborg uses the official UHIE numbers for a number of cities over a similar period and the increase in temp is higher than 0.5C.
Will Steffen is at it again. It was only a few years ago that Flannery, CSIRO and BOM types were telling us that we wouldn’t have enough rain to fill our dams.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/03/04/07/01/summer-was-hottest-ever-report
Now there is much more heat in the system and that’s why we’re getting heavier rainfall etc. So when are they telling porkies, then or now?
Here’s an example of ‘temperature adjustment’ by ACORN.
This is raw data for Bourke in Jan, 1939 compared with the adjusted ACORN temp. Every temp over 30C has been adjusted down, every temp below 30C has been adjusted upwards. There is no rhyme nor reason for these adjustments.
Jan raw Jan ACORN
1st 38.9 38.4
2nd 40 39.1
3rd 42.2 41.9
4th 38.1 37.9
5th 38.9 38.4
6th 41.7 41.5
7th 41.7 41.5
8th 43.4 43
9th 46.1 45.7
10th 48.3 47.9
11th 47.2 46.8
12th 46.2 45.8
13th 45.7 45.3
14th 46.1 45.7
15th 47.2 46.8
16th 46.7 46.3
17th 40 39.1
18th 40.1 39.1
19th 40 39.1
20th 41.9 41.7
21st 42.5 42.1
22nd 44.2 43.8
23rd 36.7 36.5
24th 40.3 39.2
25th 36.6 36.5
26th 29.4 29.5
27th 29.3 29.4
28th 28.8 28.9
29th 30.6 30.5
30th 35.6 35.4
31st 38.6 38.3
This effectively reduced Bourke’s monthly max average mean from 40.4C to 40C and reduced a 17 day +40C heatwave to 11 days.
Why is the BOM allowed to get away with this without any explanation at all?
(Also posted at WH and JoNova.)
I saw on TV news Dr Karl Braganza of the BOM spruiking the report, and I’m reminded that on prime-time TV on a “science” journalism show called “Catalyst” last December that he did speak some untruths about Oz rainfall records, (my bold):
However, according to his BOM’s time-series histograms, Dr Braganza was WRONG. For Victoria, for Queensland, for NSW, for the MDB, and for All Australia. (derived from menu at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=vic&season=0112&ave_yr=5 )
If there was editing and he was responding for Brisbane then he was WRONG. again.
There were six greater floods in Brisbane’s records since 1841:
1 – 1841: 8.43 metres
2 – 1893: 8.35 metres
3 – 1844: 7.0 metres
4 – 1974: 5.4 metres
5 – 1890: 5.3 metres
6 – 1857: 5.0 metres
7 – 2011: 4.46 metres
The BoM has to destroy the long term climate records to verify its global warming alarmism which then, of course, supports the religion and guarantees the money supply [in billions] to mitigate the wild claims about the present.
What is surprising though is that so few people are out gunning for these alarmists and are happy to accept their bogus claims AWA be fleeced over them.
However, you-all will be pleased to know that the Hockey Stick has finally been verified:
http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/screenhunter_256-mar-02-06-55.jpg
Bob
Braganza was probably right about that – 2010/2011 together were the wettest 24 months on record (though 1974 is still the wettest year). See here.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=5
But the bit about record breaking floods – in some parts of Australia maybe – but not in most areas.
Ian I’ve told many people that OZ is a much wetter place overall than the first 70 years of the 20th century.
Nearly everyone disagrees until you show them the graph.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rranom&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=15
I’ve changed your graph to an anomaly graph and used a 15 year moving average. The first 68 years of the 20th century were below ( now ) average rainfall.
Interesting to play around with some states and regions as well.
I did some scratching around and checked the summer rainfall of the major east coast towns that were hit by flooding. The source is Weatherzone.
Rockhampton:
December Rainfall: 7.4
December highest rainfall: 533.4 in 1990
January Rainfall: 555.6
January Highest Rainfall: 660.2 in 1974
February Rainfall: 114.4
February highest rainfall: 478.4 in 2008
Bundaberg:
December Rainfall: 47.6
December highest rainfall: 572.8 in 2010
January Rainfall: 494.8
January Highest Rainfall: 693.2 in 1974
February Rainfall: 237.4mm
February highest rainfall: 728.6 in 1971
Gympie:
December Rainfall: 21.0
December highest rainfall: 584.5 in 1926
January Rainfall: 431.4
January Highest Rainfall: 601.5 in 1895
February Rainfall: 459.6
February highest rainfall: 933.9 n 1893
Brisbane:
December Rainfall: 50.8
December highest rainfall: 478.8 in 2010
January Rainfall: 271.0
January Highest rainfall: 343.4 in 2012
February Rainfall: 250.6
February Highest rainfall: 272.4 in 2010
Ballina:
December Rainfall: 135.4
December highest rainfall: 414.4 in 2010
January rainfall: 348.6
January highest rainfall: 362.2 in 2008
February rainfall: 437.4 – a record!
February highest rainfall: 400.6 in 2001
Coffs Harbour:
December Rainfall: 79.6
December highest rainfall: 391.4 in 2010
January rainfall: 480.8
January highest rainfall: 512.6 in 1967
February rainfall: 379.2
February highest rainfall: 522.2 in 1985
Sydney:
December Rainfall: 45.2
December highest rainfall: 401.9 in 1920
January rainfall: 137.8
January highest rainfall: 387.1 in 1911
February rainfall: 165.4
February highest rainfall: 630.6 in 1990
Ian, I think you may have missed the context of the exchange between Karl Braganza and Jonica Newby which was about the recent reported flooding in Eastern Oz. (or as put to air; in Brisbane, Victoria, & New South Wales) The assertion by Braganza was that 2010/2011 rainfall was unprecedented. Well definitely not so in the collective Eastern Mainland States, for instance, try this: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=eaus&season=0112&ave_yr=3
I’ve set it to a three-year running average this time, (the black line), to help better show the comparative short term peaks, and if you click the drop-down menu you can explore other States and regions.
Coming back to your All-of-Oz suggestion, please check the following link out; again with 3-year averaging. I hope that you can see that even for the whole of Oz, that 2010/2011, were not unprecedented but at about the same level as about forty-years ago. http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=3
Oh, and what do you mean by record breaking floods? Sure, Brisbane was disastrous recently in terms of costs, but previously there were far worse floods in terms of river level, before population expansion particularly onto the floodplains, even as recently as 1974!
(See my first post above)
Bob
I’m on your side here. This guy says:
‘So, over the last 24-month period, the two years, we’ve seen more rainfall in Australia for a 24-month period than we’ve ever seen in the historical record.’ which is probably correct looking at the data for the whole of Australia. There was no need for him then to relate that to particular areas.
And I totally agree with you that the floods we have witnessed in 2010/11 are not ‘unprecendented’ or record breaking during that period. Maybe Toowoomba/Lockyer Valley and just recently Rockhampton and Grafton – but this could happen anywhere/anytime.
And, like you, I take issue with these alarmists who trot out this garbage at every small opportunity and distort the data for their own agenda.
Neville
I totally agree with you that the since 1950 rainfall has increased. In fact, despite the drought this decade, 2001-2010 was the second wettest decade on record.
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/change/20120104.shtml
John, good summary.
In our locality: January 2013, 714 mm. January 1974, 1790 mm.
Neville, I get the impression that you don’t understand the offering of optional smoothing periods by the BOM and how they may be “convenient” for various different time-series situations “interpretations”.
In this case the true context is to the spiky two-year term assertions of Karl Braganza. This consideration is particularly so if there is no filtering or say Gaussian distribution in the smoothing, which is not apparent in your methodology. Try running your preferred anomaly histogram (rather than totals) at a three-year smoothing and discuss here at your leisure please.
No matter what you do, these people will find some “new” and find some “record” to their taste – and nothing else. Their curiosity is not piqued by the cool summer in much of eastern Oz 2011-12, which is certainly the coolest I can recall. When a single heat record from 1939 is broken for a few seconds or minutes in 2013, there is no curiosity about why the record just broken had stood since 1939. Nor do they consider how wide ranging and persistent that 1939 heat was compared to that of 2013. (By the way, those parching 30s did it all without a single significant El Nino. ’38-9 was a La Nina. Curious? Just a bit? No?)
When NZ looked poised a few weeks back to have its hottest day there was great curiosity about 2013. When nothing anywhere near a record occurred, did they turn their curiosity back to 1973 and the standing record? You have to guess, guys.
And those “extreme” rain events. Dear oh dear, how do we bury those fifties and seventies? Who’s got a big shovel? Checked out the stupendous drenching of 1950 after a half century of rain deficit? What about the inland sea that formed to the west of Sydney during the 1955 Hunter Flood? It was the size of…England and Wales! As to storms and persistent wet: is there anything like the seventies? (Unless it’s the 1890s, when they weren’t baking one to death.)
I have no idea how my region, famous for its ’49-50 floods, and drenched and stormed upon like everybody else in the 70s, managed its wettest year in 1963. I can tell you it was bloody wet. Fortunately, in accord with what Nev mentioned, ALL our driest month records were set well before that. Our driest year, as for many others, was 1902, when a weak El Nino painted the map of half of Oz bright red. Oh, what a modern BOM artist could do with with 1902!
If anyone from BOM is reading this, please don’t delude yourselves that it’s just a bunch of crank tea-partiers and paleo-bloggers who have stopped trusting you and who find your new hobby of graphic art risible in the extreme. It’s most people beyond the urban pensive classes and the GetUp Green bourgeoisie. We’re not listening.
Dealing with real weather and knowable climate is, as your founding director, Henry Hunt discovered, messy, uncertain work. But it’s a lot more dignified than what you’re doing now.
Robert
See my post above (March 4th, 9:57am) – that’s how they got rid of 1939 temps.
And you are right about just a few minutes (if that). In Sydney, the temp rose from 44.9C to 45.8C and then back to 44.7C in just ten minutes. A fleeting record?
By the way, the BOM reported that the autumn of 2011 was the coldest on record. However, they later admitted that that was only since 1950 and maybe 1917 was colder.
One thing I noticed while scanning the data is the variance in the length of the record.
Some of those figures which show 20NN as the record in fact only went back to 1999.
The standout was Gympie that goes back to 1870 where 5 of the wettest months were recorded before the turn of the century and the wettest year on record is 1893 with 2242.9mm of rain in one year and February being the record with 933.9.
There are stations which are now closed yet still have data for the period when they were open yet it’s not included in the climate record.
1893 must have been quite year as Drake, NSW recorded a yearly rainfall of 1966.1mm, it’s highest reading still and February of that year had a record 897.9mm.
Lismore (center street) which is now closed also has it’s highest reading in 1893 of 2213.0mm with February a record with 799mm.
Brisbane regional office (now closed) also has it’s highest reading in 1893 with 2242.4mm and February also a record with 1025.9mm
Further to the above – Ballina is listed above as a record February year but if you use the closed station, Cumbalum (Fairview), which was closed in 1985 it has a February record in 1893 of 871.6mm and a yearly reading of 2611.7 (not the record, the record is 2659.8mm in 1890)
Great job Jenny.
It is great to see some real integrity.
Our Climate Commissioner was on TV last night predicting we would have wild weather fomr now on all caused by climate change caused by burning carbon.
He also predicted some few years ago that the dams would never be full again.
That is what you get when you giver a plaentologist the job of advising on climate change– like going to a lawyer for a diagnosis on suspected cancer and promising him long term employment at Senior Counsel rates on if he diagnoses cancer.
To add to the list
Casino’s highest was 1890 (1955mm) and 1893 second (1844mm).
Two years after that came the Federation drought (1895-1902 – at least). 1902 was the lowest recorded rainfall Australia-wide on record. It’s only after 1950 that rainfall began to increase again.
Bundaberg is listed as having a February highest rainfall of 728.6 in 1971 yet the station Bundaberg Post Office, closed in 1990 also lists 1893 as it’s wettest year and February had a record 815.6mm.
Clearly in 1893 a cyclone traveled down the east coast causing record rainfall and flooding, truly an extreme weather event, yet Global Warming due to CO2 and the burning of Fossil fuels hadn’t even started.
Check the graph on page 4. At least they have the decency to admit that it’s adjusted data.
http://climatecommission.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/Climate-Commission-Summary-Statement-Earth-continues-to-warm-Feb-23-20131.pdf
There were earlier known floods that were possibly higher than anything recorded:
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml
What with bushfires, floods, heatwaves, meteorites and mayan calendars, the Will Stefen stupids are spouting apocalypse like there is no tomorrow….☺
Sorry, pinched that from the Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/01/100-months-apocalypse-warnings
without doubt the Mayan calendar’s demise was the most serious and affecting the most number of people……sorry, make that gullible fools.
Someone posted this on Facebook claiming it was the most important question for mankind in 2013……. unbelievable, just listen to the BS this guy spews:
Reminds me of old adage – “figures are like a wanton woman, once you get them down you can do what you like with them”. Some of this is bordering on kinky though.
Another adage comes to mind,”figures don’t lie , but liars can figure”.
SD, you note the recent Climate Commission debacle; there is a critique of this report at The Climate Sceptic’s Party blogspot, which I can’t link to because Jen’s system won’t accept the link;
Thanks for that cohers. Bolter’s got some good ones too:
Tim in denial mode:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/flannery_denies_what_he_actually_said/
Leigh Sales wets herself over Tim. Just listen to her grueling Qs:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/flannery_stokes_fears_even_as_temperatures_refuse_to_rise/
cohers, hopefully this is it:
http://www.theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2013/03/can-climate-commission-ever-get-it-right.html
Mark Hendrickx is also lending a hand. Great work, you bloggers:
http://abcnewswatch.blogspot.com.au/
Meanwhile, back at Dr Roy’s, the big cool-off:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/03/uah-global-temperature-update-for-february-2013-0-18-deg-c/
Nice clip comrade Luke.
Now that the game is almost over I’m thinking back to the old days when we debated the droughty conditions in SWWA.
The robustness has waned since your premature departure …
Wotcher doin’ these days, Luke?
Any adventures?
Over 200 years of global warming on a realistic scale.
IOW, more signal and less noise:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/best/to:1980/plot/rss-land/plot/uah-land
It is SD; I can’t link through my computer; my better half must have put a child block on it. No, I see luke has commented.
ABCWatch has done it again.
http://abcnewswatch.blogspot.com.au/
WWF and GetUp are now out there promoting the BoM lies – damn them!
What can we do? Everyone believes them. Everyone on Facebook is sharing GetUp’s poster and giving it the thumbs up.
John I wouldn’t get too concerned because a lot of people are waking up as well.
Meanwhile the Bolter keeps hammering away about the broken models. Also he had good posts yesterday on the hopeless Flannery.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_models_are_broken_by_the_standards_warmists_set/
John, in the short term it is very frustrating when none of the MSM or the rest of the warmers are the slightest bit sceptical of these dumb claims but one thing we can be confident about is that if we are right [and I am convinced we are] these proclamations, predictions and projections will come back to bite them very badly.
I just hope that we [plus our children and grand children] can afford the time that we will have to wait.
Spangled not just the time but also the wasted/borrowed billions $ flushed down the drain returning zero on every dollar.
The sums are so easy to understand it leaves no room for any excuse for this criminal waste of our money.
This is something that is equally stupid and desperate and will bite them hard:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/05/lucia-drops-some-reality-on-the-gorebots/
NAO expected to remain negative, in line with Sol.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/eps_nao_bias.png
Latest on heatwaves…
http://www.co2science.org/subject/h/summaries/heatwaves.php
If this latest NASA data on water vapour is correct the positive feedbacks from an increase in co2 in the atmosphere has been proven wrong.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/06/nasa-satellite-data-shows-a-decline-in-water-vapor/#more-81521
If true all OECD countries have wasted at least a trillion dollars on this blithering nonsense and OZ should dump the idiot co2 tax at once.
BTW Bob Tisdale has already shown that globally precipitation has decreased. Rather wrecks the theory of CAGW.
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/12/27/model-data-precipitation-comparison-cmip5-ipcc-ar5-model-simulations-versus-satellite-era-observations/
The Bolter calls for Flannery’s sacking and gets stuck into the angry summer nonsense.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_fact_checking_flannerys_angry_summer_propaganda/#commentsmore
@Neville
That’s the 2nd credible report in 3 months saying the same thing – global humidity is gently decreasing. Major negative feedback (water vapour) in CAGW is KAPUT, is the message
It won’t matter though. The scientific illiterates running the MSM will ignore this
“It won’t matter though. The scientific illiterates running the MSM will ignore this”
Its not just the illiterates in MSM that will ignore it, but the illiterates in academia will be going their best as well, aided and abetted by a biased, secretive,disfunctional and thoroughly unreliable Peer Review system…particularly in the GW arena.
Good to see a new post from Jen,
Great article in the Land last week Jen.
I have been in amongst the MDBA and other ‘usual suspects’ in the last few days and it is a relief to read this post that puts this issue back into some perspective.
I am thoroughly tired of listening to and arguing with totally impractical and highly political ‘motherhood’ statements.
We now have a ‘plan’ that isn’t what most of us would define as a ‘plan’ & a ‘water recovery strategy’ that does not contain what we would define as a ‘strategy’.
It ‘piggy backs’ straight onto the nonsense stuff that Jen highlights here.
All alarmist ‘precautionary principle’ BS that just spends money producing more alarmist pp BS!
“It won’t matter though. The scientific illiterates running the MSM will ignore this”
Its only a matter of time (as nature is on our side) before the msm sees reality, but that’s someway off.
Here’s what we are up against, its nature’s fault the models aren’t working?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/achenblog/wp/2013/03/07/forecasts-and-probabilities/
EG, from your link:
“Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) writes: “Chaos in weather systems is technically deterministic – it happens even without introducing random elements.”
That’s great; non-random factors are both chaotic and deterministic. Koutsoyiannis shows why he and the rest of these delinquents are over-educated nitwits:
http://itia.ntua.gr/getfile/1130/1/documents/causality_4.pdf
Our ABC is a disgrace, a propaganda machine which must be dismantled. Hockey is the man to do it.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-08/climate-study/4561164?section=australianetworknews
Anthony has a first go at the Marcott study. Can’t wait for SM to bring in his big forensic guns and blow this idiocy out of the water.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/08/marcott-et-al-claim-of-unprecedented-warming-compared-to-gisp-ice-core-data/#more-81694
Mann is very gung ho about this new HS study so it could/should be a real bummer.
Here is another Alley graph from Gisp2 Greenland, finishing in 2000. Wonder what caused the Younger Dryas 11,400 years ago?
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/alley2000/alley2000.gif
Interesting snow accumulation over the Holocene shown as metres per year. No doubt that warmer temps increases precipitation.
But where is the line between more snow and ice and more glacier advance and more ice bergs?
Remember that the Glacier Girl P38 bomber was found under 268 feet of ice after just 50 years of snowfall.
Neville,
Even if we accept that half of that was simply sinking into the snow by its own weight, as some suggest, that is still a heck of a lot of snow depths in 50 years.
‘Wonder what caused the Younger Dryas 11,400 years ago?’
I automatically assumed it was a well placed comet, which put a damper on warming. The Holocene is different to the other interglacials, more a gradual sloping than the usual horrific fall from grace.
Its still just a theory, but fits the null hypothesis.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825211000262
No matter what the cause, it appears confined to the northern hemisphere.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618212000109
‘…non-random factors are both chaotic and deterministic.’
Chaos theory…
If despite all the dubious adjustments to the data, it really is getting warmer, I don’t have a problem. I’m a rational sceptic grounded in reality. I do however have a problem with anyone who claims without evidence that a warmer planet is in any way a bad thing, and wants to punish us all for it.
Very valid points made here Jennifer, it is a pity the climate change lobby group seem to have a stranglehold on the main stream media the ABC especially.
I worked out at Hay in 1986 – 88 and can remember the temperature getting to the late 40’s then, also a pommy bloke working on a station told me on one stinking hot day that it was over 50% celsius under his cottage verandah.
This whole climate change theory is complete bullshit.
I live on the Murray River in an irrigation area, before irrigation this was sheep and wheat country with regular dust storms, plus I was born here in November 1959 in a heat wave with temperatures similar to now.
Keep up the great work and all the best for 2014.