Who’s a Climate Scientist?
Posted by jennifer, August 4th, 2009 - under Opinion, Uncategorized.
Tags: Climate & Climate Change, People
“PROMINENT scientists with long publications records, such as Bob Carter, are routinely described by the media as not being climate scientists and really not reputable scientists at all if they aren’t on the alarmist bandwagon. On the other hand, lawyers expressing alarmist views are described as prominent scientists.
“And the scientists regularly put forward in the media as the world’s leading climate experts often turn out to be computer modelers with little or no background in climate science…
Read more from Myron Ebell here.
And of course Graeme Pearman who many in Australia assume to be a climate scientist, actually trained as a biologist and has a PhD in carbon budgeting.
As an example of the bias, consider this interview by ABC Journalist Sabra Lane.
“The climate alarmist science community is overwhelmingly comprised of researchers whose entire careers are based on climate alarmism. In contrast, the sceptical scientists are overwhelmingly comprised of researchers with well established expertise in other fields of research. The alarmists repeatedly refer to a catechism of highly selected evidence which supports their claims. The sceptics cite voluminous other evidence from their own fields which contradicts the alarmist’s claims.”
Rubbish. You have made a claim you know you cannot support. Even if there was no AGW, there would still be plenty of work for climate scientists.
Spanglers – your comments are pathetic given you have total access to the BoM climate data bank. Frankly if we dropped it on your computer (well it wouldn’t fit) you wouldn’t know what to do with it. You simply want to have a whinge about it. In fact working with climate data are a big pain for most scientists – complex messy stuff from difficult environments. You need a good climate data workout to settle you right down. About 6 months should do you.
Toby most people probably haven’t go a clue about AGW – loose woolly thinking and fanciful notions abound on all sides. The Feds know that a unilateral ETS will have no effect on climate – presumably they’re trying to get some creds for catalysing a much bigger international deal at Copenhagen. Anything else doesn’t make sense. Personally I don’t think you can persuade the electorate to vote for austerity – so I’m pessimistic that it can be sold and the fracas will take down a much bigger science effort on climate that is sorely needed.
But remember – the global atmosphere doesn’t give a rats about our politics, economy, science, alarmists, denialist scum or the environment – it’s just going to integrate a physical solution to whatever drives it.
luke and PB are obviously the shift workers to-night and PB has taken his stimulants and flushed his sense of irony “Garnaut did a fair amount of work”; very droll PB; for a true estimate of the ETS;
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25243345-601,00.html
And that’s the minimalist 5% reduction in emissions refereable to 2000.
“The Feds know that a unilateral ETS will have no effect on climate”
This does not mean that the work done by people like Garnaut is wrong or an attempt at fraud, it is was a necessary precursor to the framing of the proposeed bill.
I agree with Luke in that the current govt, for many reasons, has nailed it’s AGW colours to the mast and is now looking to use it’s ETS policy to drag the major players into the ring. We’re a bit player to be sure but it’s often the minor characters that assist the protagonists in their quest.
Ah, coho good to have you aboard. Yes I’ve had a day off so plenty of time to engage in a little tete e tete.
As to your reference, the first thing I notice is that you assert that it will link to a “true estimate” of the ETS. Normally I’d say “well it’s informal conversation, interlocutors may be allowed logical fallacies”, however given that denialists are obsessed with truth as defined as the presentation of a proof not only beyond reasonable doubt but truth in the sense of abolute truth, the type spoken by God, revealed, inalienable truth, I must take issue with the phrase “true esitmate”. Surely an estimate is contingent and as such it’s truth can’t be determined as the set of circumstances necessary to validate the estimate and establish its accuracy, or “truth” if you like, have yet to occur?
I also notice that it’s a link to The Australian newspaper, enough said.
Upon scanning the article I note that the “secret” (but it’s in the paper??) report largely agrees with the Federal Govts estimates.
Just a few points for you to ponder whilst you sip you late night Horlicks.
Yes luke, but our parliamentarians won’t go cold;
http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/committee/fapa_ctte/estimates/bud_0910/parliament/QoNs/P5.pdf
You’ll be able to curl up at the feet of Senator Wong.
I meant of course PB; the doppleganger effect, no doubt.
Stated on the ANU’s web site: “Andrew Macintosh is an environmental law and policy expert and is the Associate Director of the ANU Centre for Climate Law and Policy.
Prior to joining the ANU College of Law, Andrew was Deputy Director of The Australia Institute and has previously worked as an environmental advisor to the Australian Democrats”
The Australian National University’s Centre for Climate Law—the first such centre in
Australia – was officially opened 6 june 2008 by the Minister for Environment, Heritage and the
Arts, Peter Garrett
The Centre for Climate Law, within the University’s College of Law and headed up by
Professor Tim Bonyhady, will also teach Australia’s first university course dedicated to
climate law.
“Australians understand that responsibility for the climate is shared by us all, and looking at
the legal ramifications of climate change is an important part of finding solutions,
understanding their impact and acting responsibly,” Mr Garrett said.
Professor Tim Bonyhady has been appointed to a panel of experts supporting the independent review of the EPBC Act.
When joint Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Mr. Al Gore, who failed to complete a law degree, failed in Divinity and got a D in Science (Washington Post, 2000, link http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&contentId=A37397-2000Mar18) is put up as the Godfather of Climate Science, what hope do real scientists have! No wonder Big Al did not want to discuss with Senator Steve Fielding, a qualified engineer, about his doubts of AGW theory when in Australia recently. But of course it’s not about real science but a failed theory adopted by politicians (for new taxes), carbon traders like Gore and clung onto by “climate” modelers afraid of losing their jobs and the massive amounts of money thrown at them.
**********
BE IN FAVOUR OR AGAINST PAYING MORE FOR ENERGY SOURCES, SUCH AS PETROL, ELECTRICITY AND GAS IF IT WOULD HELP TO SLOW GLOBAL WARMING?
and here’s the result:
IN FAVOUR 58
AGAINST 38
UNCOMMITTED 4
Some other interesting poll results there as well. All point to a fairly solid majority supporting action on AGW. Presumably they have all bought into the delusion as well. I’d say that a very powerful force ray must be involved, oh yes I’ll warrant that.”
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But as any good conspiracy theorist knows, mass delusions are more common and persistent than people might think. For example, today one might rightly consider that more or less the entire intellectual life of the Middle Ages consisted of one delusional concept after another, yet nobody noticed for hundreds of years. A more recent example of a mass delusion might be the Iraqi WMD fraud, which emanted from and took in millions from the right-wing loony department, but which was also taken up with vigor and a total lack of discrimination by the press and general media.
Regardless of whether or not the poll consisted of a trick question, as has been rightly suggested on the evidence presented so far, the result seems to show that 58% of the rabble appear to believe that ‘something must be done’ in order to slow global warming and who are prepared to wear higher prices if this would help the cause.
Although not, thankfully, a scientist myself, I have two brothers who are scientists, one a geneticist, the other a geologist. When I questioned them on the issue of climate change, both of them exhibited a strong belief in anthropogenic global warming and the necessity to do something about it. However further questioning showed that they simply assumed that the current warming must be anthropogenic in nature without any knowledge of arguments for and against, or even that the question might be relevant. It was quite clear that neither of them anything about the subject at all, but instead were reliant on ingrained habit to trust the relevant scientific authorities on the matter.
It seems to me that since the rabble do not generally read the literature relating to climate, scientific or otherwise, and the media is incompetent at presenting the arguments from both sides with any clarity, it would unsurprising if the rabble were as clueless on the subject as my brothers turned out to be. I would therefore rate the 58% poll figure as essentially meaningless except as a measure of the effectiveness of climate propaganda.
so patrick, you are incapable of answering a few simple questions…oh well you win, its what i expect from people that hold a “faith”.
your wit and sarcasm are such a pleasure to us all i suppose we should be grateful to be in your presence.
Me i ll just skip over your wit for now and think oh what a complete and utter prick you are, still i suppose i can satisfy myself with the thought you are probably some single bitter twisted individual..and rather than feel sorry for you, just hope it gets worse.
Luke thankyou for your response, it must be worrying to genuinely be concerned like you are and see the best that people can come up with is an ETS that you know will not help.
perhaps patrick might like to read the following link http://www.climatedepot.com/a/2282/Consensus-Takes-Another-Hit-More-than-60-German-Scientists-Dissent-Over-Global-Warming-Claims-Call-Climate-Fears-Pseudo-Religion-Urge-Chancellor-to-reconsider-views
“The July 26, 2009 German scientist letter urged Chancellor Merkel to “strongly reconsider” her position on global warming and requested a “convening of an impartial panel” that is “free of ideology” to counter the UN IPCC and review the latest climate science developments.
The scientists, from many disciplines, including physicists, meteorology, chemistry, and geology, explain that “humans have had no measurable effect on global warming through CO2 emissions. Instead the temperature fluctuations have been within normal ranges and are due to natural cycles.”
“More importantly, there’s a growing body of evidence showing anthropogenic CO2 plays no measurable role,” the scientists wrote. “Indeed CO2′s capability to absorb radiation is already exhausted by today’s atmospheric concentrations. If CO2 did indeed have an effect and all fossil fuels were burned, then additional warming over the long term would in fact remain limited to only a few tenths of a degree,” they added.
“The IPCC had to have been aware of this fact, but completely ignored it during its studies of 160 years of temperature measurements and 150 years of determined CO2 levels. As a result the IPCC has lost its scientific credibility,” the scientists wrote.
As Luke says there is a lot of crap on both sides of the debate and I can understand why he believes so strongly because he continually provides his evidence and thoughts in a coherent ( well generally Luke…) manner. He does get abusive sometimes but i think i understand that his sense of humour and wit make up for it and make his posts generally intersting to read.
It frustrates me that the sceptic side seems to find it so hard to gain traction. I have been disappointed in interviews i have seen of our pin up boys such as bob carter, but i thought plimer made a case that really should gain traction if only people were capable of picking up his book and reading it. Just the first chapter has to make you sceptical.
Science needs to watch out. It has offered us so much over the years but it is already in danger of becoming a laughing stock. Now when I see some new scientific finding I am immediately sceptical.
Dribble, I concur with your sentiments and celebrate the humour in your name. Its sad isnt it that so few people who should have the capacity to think for themselves just blindly believe what they are told by “higher” authorities.
“think oh what a complete and utter prick you are”
I’m sorry Toby, the tenor of you last comment with its pleading pathetic tone almost brings a tear to my eye. You admiration for Luke is …um… admirable. I don’t intend to answer any of your questions, why should I? I don’t really care about the evidence, that’s for others to gather. Your questions are for the scientists not for bloggers. What I take issue with is your absolute conviction that you are right and everyone else is wrong, a position that conflicts directly with your professed belief in science. It’s borne out by your childish, intemperate language. Anyone who disagrees with you (or motty, louis etc) is an idiot, a fool, a moron. Brilliant response.
Dribble,
Interesting idea about the middle ages, doesn’t really work though. No delusion back then just a strong belief backed by the fear of the church.
Good to see that some members of you family have some sense. And I suppose you include yourself as part of the “rabble” or are you some sort of peer? Baron Dribble perhaps?
Comment on PatrickB, 5:47 pm on 5-8-09
PatrickB in dismissing a well-credentialled scientist in Walter Starck implies that there is an overwhelming consensus that AGW is proven and serious. It is interesting to compare this witha study by Professor Dennis Bray, easily found on the net at more than one site, under the title:
“The not so clear consensus on climate change”
Bray found that about 10% of scientists polled strongly believed in dangerous AGW. About 10% thought it was completely unfounded. The remaining 80% covered the whole spectrum between these views.
This hardly supports the view that the science is settled, and that sceptics are somehow unscientific. Debate on the science and on policy responses for possible AGW should continue. They should not be shut down by alarmism.
Baah baah patrick, your comprehension skills, thinking processes and debating skills are a wonder to us all .
what a tosser
PatrickB is misrepresenting the Newspoll figures (well, of course that’s not all he’s misrepresenting, but let’s just focus on that, since it is practically the only factual reference he has produced throughout the thread and is the basis of his claim that Australians want action on climate change regardless of the price impact).
The poll also showed in his figures that he doesn’t mention a clear majority did not want any action on an ETS until after the Copenhagen conference. When people say that they will wear the pain, but not just now thanks, it says something about whether they will really wear the pain if and when it actually comes. The poll after Copenhagen, if it is the fiasco most expect, will be telling.
He also omits to mention that Newspoll results on the ETS have swung markedly against it – by around 20% – since last September. Momentum and trend are at least as important in assessing polling as any single point in time result, Patrick.
Incidentally, you’re not PatrickG from Larvatus Prodeo are you? You show the same standard of snark, the same ham-handed attempts at humour while clearly not having much idea what the concept ‘humour’ is all about, the same surfeit of opinion and paucity of data.
Patrick B “Apparently, not only am I a fool for accepting the opinion of the clear majority of experts in the fields….”
What experts, what fields? Generalizations like yours are what drive alarmist dogma. I was debating (one sided) with an AGW advocate the other day and asked him to name an objective poll that showed the majority of climate scientists agreed with the AGW theory. I asked him 4 times and each time he came back with no answer and more rhetoric.
I agree that you would get unanimity if you polled all climate modelers. The mistake you alarmists make is thinking modelers represent climate science. They do not, they represent climate modeling, and there may be a lot of them because anyone can run a climate model. Most of you speak as if climate modeling is climate science and that climate scientists like Richard Lindzen, with 40 years in the non-modeling, direct observation school are skeptics not worth bothering with.
The IPCC represents climate modelers and they are well represented by the IPCC. The IPCC admitted in TAR that they were going to use models exclusively to ‘guess’ at future climate states. They do not predict future climate states because the IPCC made it clear that is not possible, and Kevin Trenberth concurred. Out of the 4000 reviewers on the IPCC, only about 250 are degreed climate scientists or meteorologists. The rest are scientists from all disciplines.
Among the skeptics you might get partial agreement on AGW. John Christy of UAH claims CO2 ‘should’ warm the atmosphere and Patrick Micahels feels ACO2 contributes to the warming. The latter simply does not think the amount of warming contributed is worth the bother. Therefore a straight yes/no poll would reveal nothing.
Let me put it to you this way. Among all climate scientists with a degree in the discipline, or among meteorologists, or among physicists, what percentage of those people agree with the AGW theory? How many of them just don’t know?
I really don’t get where you are coming from in trying to disparage Pearman’s qualifications.
You say …
“And of course Graeme Pearman who many in Australia assume to be a climate scientist, actually trained as a biologist and has a PhD in carbon budgeting.”
And the reality is …
“The material for this web site was prepared under contract by Dr Graeme I Pearman AM, FAA, ATSE, FRoySocVic, BSc(Hon), PhD. Dr Graeme Pearman obtained his degrees from the University of Western Australia, where he was trained as a biologist. He joined CSIRO in 1971 where he was Chief of the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research for the ten years 1992-2002. He contributed over 150 scientific journal papers primarily on aspects of the global carbon budget.”
I would imagine that someone who headed the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research for the ten years, who has contributed to over 150 scientific papers, and who did hios PhD on the global carbon budget (which is key to understanding the atmosphere and the greenhouse effect) might know a thing or two about the subject.
By contrast, how many climate science papers has Bob Carter published (other than his recent embarrassingly lame effort with Freitas & McLean)?
But in the end the most telling thing is that Bob Carter and co. are so willing to say things that are clearly no true, contradictory or illogical. For example, the ‘climate has always changed and was doing so before people were around therefore this time it can’t be us’ line. Or the ‘Carbon dioxide is only a trace gas therefore it can’t possibly affect the climate’ meme. You don’t have to be particularly intelligent let alone trained in climate science to see how bogus arguments like that are. When someone asserts such patently dumb things, how can anyone with any level of scientific literacy take anything they say seriously, or have respect for anyone who holds them up as ‘experts’.
Jennifer, you’re really bad at getting things right. Graham Pearman does not have a PhD in “Carbon budgetting”. What your link says is that “He contributed over 150 scientific journal papers primarily on aspects of the global carbon budget.”
And that latter has nothing to do with “budgetting” It is about quantifying the carbon cycle. He is a world leading scientist in atmospheric chemistry.
He was Chief of CSIRO’s Division of Atmospheric Research for ten years. And yes, in the 60′s there weren’t courses in climatology in Australia. But with, for example, a 1976 Nature article on “Climatic implications of stable carbon isotopes in tree rings” and a profusion of similar articles over the next thirty years, there can hardly be anyone more qualified to be called a climate scientist.
And Bob Carter?
Reality is very few really know about AGW in detail.
But irrelevant anyway – ignore the faux sceptic flak and diversionary stunts – onwards to Berlin !
Anyone who believes in this AGW hypothesis is a climate scientist. Anyone who might disagree is not. Simple as that! No debate or opposing scientific research is required. Didn’t our failed Divinity student and Natural Science D achiever (Washington Post article, 2000) but respected climatologist Al Gore tell us the debate is OVER.
“Jennifer, you’re really bad at getting things right. ”
That’s because she never actually checks that anything she puts up here is correct. As a PhD qualified scientist herself, I would have thought that would have been one of the most important skills she would have learned.
The Commonwealth Bank has announced it will reduce its carbon emissions by 20 per cent by June 2013, in comparison to 2008-2009 levels.
The bank will implement a range of energy and IT efficiency initiatives to achieve the carbon reduction target by June 2013, which include:
* upgrades to lighting and air conditioning in offices and branches;
* automated overnight PC shutdown for all staff;
* upgrades to desktop hardware; and
* changes to the type of cars and fuel used in the Group’s tool-of-trade fleet.
The impact of the project will be measured by the Group’s existing energy and carbon emissions data management systems and will be reported annually.
http://news.envirocentre.com.au/lawn/article.php?issue=555&key=990&id=12764
Very good luke; no doubt the frugal and thrifty CB chaps will pass on the fruits of this efficiency to their customers.
Back ot; Nick has thoughtfully put forward Professor Pearman as a suitably qualified climate scientist with expertise to justify his apocalyptic visions [how come noone ever mentions Pearman's devout beliefs but those of Spencer or Christy or even Fielding are the basis for ridicule?]; I would like to counter with Professor Paltridge.
One observation is that the time Gavin Schmidt, and other “climate scientists” at RealClimate, spend writing blog entries to debunk criticisms and defend their GCMs leaves little time for producing comprehensive research papers and validating the models. Surely these “climate cannot be dedicated in the way they should be?
As an amateur climate/weather observer for over 23 years, I am concerned about the warming/drying trend in SE Australia over the last 15 years. I don’t know the cause, but I hope it is temporary and due to the dominance of El Nino since the late 1970′s. If however the warming/drying is due to GHG emissions, I doubt that there will ever be sufficient global effort to reduce them – perhaps it will only happen when fossil fuel runs out. In that regard we would be better to think about how to mitigate the worst likely outcome. I see little of that happening. Rudd’s approach is hypocracy. The government maintains record levels of immigration. More water, energy, food and land resources need to be allocated year by year, so diminishing our living standards. In NSW very few towns and cities can boast of full water supplies. For example, Oberon’s dam is at less than 15% capacity. Rainfall there has declined 15% in the last 10 years. Lack of water and our growing energy deficit is something that can be dealt with and are more pressing matters. Climate change is highly unpredicateble in our time frame, and it is even less certain that we can materially do anything about it.
Coho, yes, Graham Pearman and Garth Paltridge were long-time colleagues at the Division of Atmospheric Research. You might like to ask Garth what he thinks of Miskolczi.
SJT: Even if there was no AGW, there would still be plenty of work for climate scientists.
Well, touche. Finally, SJT glimpses, no doubt inadvertently, the real nature of the beast.
“Baah baah patrick, your comprehension skills, thinking processes and debating skills are a wonder to us all .
what a tosser”
What an excellent point, and not at all ineloquent (sic).
“PatrickB is misrepresenting the Newspoll figures”
Total rubbish, the figures I gave were copied and pasted from the report. I also invited others to view the other survey results. I don’t need to manipulate the data to make my argument. All the other results point to majority support for a belief in AGW. I don’t think the result for a “wait until after … ” stance can be interpreted as support for the anti-AGW position.
I don’t regard the science as settled, I think there are few who do, they are called extremists and the occur in all debates. I don’t dismiss the views of Walter Starck, I don’t know what they are. I don’t care, the evidence will be collected and interpreted by experts.
I take issue with the stance taken by the denialists that AGW is a grand conspiracy and that anyone who expresses a view that takes the weight of evidence from a large number of experts as supporting the AGW theory is an idiot. To me that type of argument lacks logic, it is simple, childish, infantile. I’m amazed at the incapacity of adults here to reflect for a moment on the basis for their arguments and the way that they argue. The lack of an ability to reflect and adjust is the mark of an extremist.
I’m not patrickg from LP I’m patrickb, the snarkiness comes with the name.
“I agree that you would get unanimity if you polled all climate modelers. The mistake you alarmists make is thinking modelers represent climate science.”
You see that’s exactly my point in the two sentences you dismiss an entire body of research because you don’t like the (widely accepted) methodology. Then you use a pejorative to attempt to belittle you opponents.
Why do you dismiss modeling when it is a widely used technique in many fields? Why are you at odds with large numbers of practitioners in the field? I presume you feel that another round of insults will answer the question?
“What experts, what fields?”
I presume experts in fields related to the problem at hand. Why is that such a wild assumption? Do you have evidence that large numbers of unqualified people are constructing an elaborate conspiracy?
SJT
““More bunk from denialists ! How is that denialist scum deny the data quality then go and use it anyway. You fucking hypocrites.”
It should be tattooed on their foreheads.”
Like politically uncorrect individuals during the 3rd Reich who had it tattooed on their arms?
PatrickB: Interesting idea about the middle ages, doesn’t really work though. No delusion back then just a strong belief backed by the fear of the church.
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No delusion in the Middle Ages? That seems a bit strong. I am not an expert in the belief systems of the period, but the most obvious example is the question of the position of the earth in the solar system. The prevailing view, dating from time immemorial, was that the sun went around the earth. When Copernicus proposed the heliocentric theory there was no actual physical evidence for this view at the time. It mainly arose from Copernicus’s personal belief that the mathematical prescription for the movement of the planets was thereby rendered simpler and more aesthetic than the prevailing system of Ptolemaic epicycles. The theory only gradually gained acceptance over the next hundred years, and we can only imagine the arguments between right and left-wing loony Copernicanists and anti-Copernicanists that must have raged at the time. Due to technical innovations such as the telescope, physical evidence for the theory gradually became available and it eventually became widely accepted. Now, 400 or so years later, we can confidently assert that the theory that the earth orbits the sun is a certain fact.
However, if you had approached a rational philosopher in the 12th century and suggested to him that something might be wrong with the accepted consensus concerning the movement of the planets, you would probably have been branded as denialist scum, your sanity questioned and perhaps you might have been run out of town for being a threat to the mental and moral health of the population. Everybody who knew anything about the subject at all, every educated persion, knew that Ptolemaic epicycles were the bee knees and nothing further by way of explanation could possibly be required.
Were such philosophers, along with the entire intellectual class of the period, deluded? Only now, when the science of astronomy has become far more sophisticated, along with the development of rocketry and satellites etc, can we say with any real certainty that they were.
This is only a very simple example. Consider the vast history of peculiar medical theories, such as the notion that being bled by leeches was good for you, or that the ingestion of mercury compounds was a health tonic. All of these dubious practices and more were recommended by the experts of the day on the basis of elaborate theory. The history of science, or perhaps more correctly the history of rational thinking, shows over and over again that a congregation of experts or authority does not guarantee certain knowledge. Indeed this is one of the lessons of history that is supposedly incorporated into the scientific method itself, but which particularly in relation to climate science seems to have sadly fallen by the wayside in a big way.
“Like politically uncorrect individuals during the 3rd Reich who had it tattooed on their arms?”
*GODWIN*
As in Gretch?
“Baah baah patrick, your comprehension skills, thinking processes and debating skills are a wonder to us all .
what a tosser”
What an excellent point, and not at all ineloquent (sic).
Patrick that is all you deserve, i tried to debate with you and refuse to answer any question, or make an intelligent point, i had said i would not bother to read your comments and im not except i saw my quote.
you remain a tosser and in your instance it seems a great description so infact quite eloquent
“Patrick that is all you deserve, i tried to debate with you and refuse to answer any question, or make an intelligent point, i had said i would not bother to read your comments and im not except i saw my quote.”
That should obviously have read “i tried to debate with you and you refused to answer any simple questions, let alone do anything other than be a smart arse.”
And where does all this CARBON come from ???? http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/co2weekly/2005-08-18/dioxide.htm