I’m sometimes asked how ocean circulation can naturally cause global warming, with many assuming solar variability or under sea volcanoes to be the indirect immediate cause.
My New Theory of Climate Resilience will focus instead on ocean upwelling dynamics, particularly in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP), and their modulation by lunar cycles. And I’m thinking in terms of a wind-driven climate.
These lunar cycles will be a topic for another day, in this short note I want to just introduce the idea of upwellings, and specifically for the eastern Pacific Ocean affecting global temperatures.
For centuries, Peruvian fisherman have noticed an increase in surface ocean temperature every so many years that impacts their catch.
The other years there are major deep ocean upwelling with the trade winds thought to drive cold, nutrient- and CO₂-rich deep waters (>1000 m, 2–4°C) to the surface. However, during El Niño years, weakened trade winds are thought to reduce upwelling, allowing warmer intermediate waters (100–500 m, 12–20°C) to dominate, raising sea surface temperatures (SSTs).
To be sure the ocean is layered! Temperatures change with the seasons and other cycles.
The surface mixed layer (0–65 m, 24–28°C) absorbs solar radiation; the intermediate layer is thought to be warmed by western Pacific currents, while the cold deep waters are the source of upwellings bringing nutrient rich waters that feed Peruvian anchoveta.
The Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) is a species of fish of the anchovy family, Engraulidae, from the Southeast Pacific Ocean. It is one of the most commercially important fish species in the world, with annual harvests varying significantly between 3.14 and 8.32 million tonnes depending on ocean upwellings with cycles that appear to be little changed over the millennia. Most of the anchoveta catch is processed into fishmeal and fish oil, which is then exported to feed fish and livestock around the world including even farmed salmon in Chile and pigs in the United States and China.
There are robotic ARGO buoys that float with the currents; individual buoys can drift at depths of between 1 and 2 km, before ascending to the surface every ten days, measuring temperature and salinity as they rise. According to published studies, this ARGO data shows a general increase in sea surface temperatures with further rises of 1–2°C during El Niño years. So, the change is broadly consistent with the UAH satellite temperature data that shows warming since at least 1979 that has occurred as step changes, rather than as a general linear increase.
Last night Australia conservative politics suffered a devastating defeat to the Australian Labour Party in the federal election, though neither side managed to garner very much of the primary vote.
For sure, there are cycles in politics just as there are cycles in life. Recovery, if it is to occur, will perhaps require some reconnecting with core values that once upon a time placed a premium on evidence-based public policies developed with reference to the traditional scientific method while encouraging debate.
For sure, given the importance of energy and that the energy transition is apparently being forced by a climate emergency there is a need for a new theory of climate change that begins with an understanding of natural cycles. To simply claim, however, that climate change is natural is not a theory or even a proper rebuttal. It represents lazy politics currently favoured by conservative opinion leaders who are mostly frightened of my climate science. Shame.
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The image featured at the top of this post is from Nasa Flickr, with thanks. More information at:
https://www.nasa.gov/nasa-brand-center/images-and-media/
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Predominate tidal flows from the west from months April through to October are not wind driven as you have previously stated-they maybe assisted to a very small degree but if you look at tidal stream predictions for Torres Strait which are entirely based on modelling from sun and moon positions it is obvious that tidal flow from the east peaks roughly around our winter solstice with high tides at night and low during daylight-however during January February and into march equalizing tide runs from West predominate with high tide during daylight and low at night-it’s this high tide during the day that sits on reef crests and bakes in the hot sun especially during neap tides when flows are minimal that causes the heat stress on the corals-this also applies to large amounts of fresh water runoff which sits on top of reefs during the wet season-from April through to October the dominant east tidal runs rectify this problem and bring in all the good zooplankton from the deep and so the coral recovers-this explains why the growth of reefs occurs in a south east direction with sandcays located on the north western edge-explains how lobster larvae are transported into the deeper ocean waters during February when tidal flows running out into the deep through channels in the outer reefs are intense and at night-explains the shape of the reefs-and its been happening for thousands of years but not according to our money grabbing scientists who chase the funding
The current rise in Eastern Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature coincides with the ‘terrestrial footprint’ of the prevailing East to West influence of a ‘Regional’ (Two Year) Solar-induced Orbital Dry Cycle.This Cycle started at 50 degrees E Longitude,(Madagascar) in early August, 2024 – and will end over 50 degrees E Longitude in early August 2026. Its vanguard is now situated around 90 degrees W Longitude. This means current drought conditions for Africa, Europe, South America and Eastern parts of North America.
This East to West temperature fluctuation is NOT caused by ocean currents. The Earth,(and its prevailing weather systems ) move from West to East,(Axial Spin.)
This ‘Regional’ Dry Cycle will affect Australia from early January, 2026 to mid-May, 2026.
A new ‘Minor’ (One Year) Orbital Dry Cycle will start over 140 degree E (West of Melbourne, Australia) in early November 2026 – and move East to West, ending over 40 degrees w longitude in early November, 2027. These Dry Cycles orbit East to West at 15 degrees Longitude per 30 Day/Night Interval Month, (1/2 degree per Day/Night Interval.)
For the Regional Cycles;
The Regional Dry Cycle begins at the Cycle Start/End Longitude, moving Westward at 15 degrees longitude per month.
16 months into the Cycle’s terrestrial progress, the X factor influence concludes in the Sun. (Cycle Shift Date.) The Regional Cycle Vanguard continues to move Westward through the remainder of its 360 degree track, (120 degrees, or 8 months at 15 d/month,) to finish at the Cycle Start/End Longitude, at the same time as the Cycle Shift.
Following the Cycle Shift start, the Regional Dry Cycle Vanguard is progressively ‘overtaken’ and replaced by the subsequent Wet/Normal Period status quo, at a rate of 45 degrees/month, as the Cycle Vanguard continues at 15 degrees/month toward the 24 month, 360 degree Start/End Longitude. Thus, the Regional Cycle Vanguard and the Regional Cycle Shift, arrive at the Cycle Start/End Longitude simultaneously. The Regional Cycle Shift start date of 16 months after the Cycle Start date, provides the 16 month Actual Terrestrial Footprint for the Regional Cycles.
For the Minor Cycles;
Flooding/Precipitation data indicates that, as with a Regional Dry Cycle, the Minor Dry Cycle begins at the Cycle Start Longitude, moving Westward at 15 degrees Longitude per month.
Differing from the Regional Cycle; Eight months into the terrestrial progress of the Minor Cycle, the X Factor influence concludes in the Sun. (Cycle Shift Date.) The Minor Cycle Vanguard continues to move Westward at 15 degrees/month, through the remainder of its duration, to finish at the Cycle End Longitude, at the same time as the Cycle Shift.
If a Minor Cycle Duration of 12 months is maintained – and the Cycle Shift Rate remains at 45 degrees/month, the Cycle Shift will ‘overtake’ the Cycle Vanguard 12 months into the Cycle Duration,
(provided the 8 month Cycle Shift Date is retained.)
There is no reason to believe (at this stage,) that the Shift Rate of 45 degrees/month does not apply for both Regional and Minor Cycles, so the Chronology will reflect this, until further specific revelations find otherwise.
Thus, (as it stands,) there is a 12 month, difference between the Duration Parameter of a Regional Cycle and that of a Minor Cycle.
The Regional Cycles have a Duration Length of 24 months, with an Actual Terrestrial Footprint of 16 months – while the Minor Cycles have a Duration Length of 12 months, with an Actual Terrestrial Footprint of 8 months.
‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ 30 years on….(pp 191-192)
A higher-than-usual amount of ocean warming, along with meltwater from land-based ice, caused a jump in sea level that surprised scientists. The rate of rise in 2024 was 0.23 inches per year, more than the rate of 0.17 that forecasters had projected.
“The rise we saw in 2024 was higher than we expected,” said Josh Willis, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, per ABC News. “Every year is a little bit different, but what’s clear is that the ocean continues to rise, and the rate of rise is getting faster and faster.”
NASA blamed the rise mostly on the expansion of ocean water as it warms, a process known as thermal expansion. In recent years, approximately two-thirds of sea level rise resulted from land-based ice melt, while one-third was due to thermal expansion. However, in 2024, this trend reversed — thermal expansion accounted for two-thirds of the rise.
Kenneth,
Thanks for your observations, thanks for sharing them. Are you suggesting that for northern Australian waters everything is tidally driven by gravitational forces of the Sun and the Moon?
For sure the trade winds are blowing. Are they moving any water this way/across to the western Pacific?
What then about the upwelling over the other side of the Pacific? Are they real what causes them?
Is it the case that the polar cycles, the melting at Antarctica that was quite dramatic in 2016, that chills the water that becomes a deep reservoir and an ocean current, how and when might this surface?
‘However, in 2024, this trend reversed — thermal expansion accounted for two-thirds of the rise.’
That is newsworthy, thanks.
The NASA sea level data is largely fictional from selective cherry-picking by a conflicted and hitherto corrupted organisation. One year, ten years, 100 years of data mean very little and are nothing exceptional.
Suggest you read Willis Eschenbach for a better understanding.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/05/05/sea-level-nasa-versus-noaa/
The lunar cycles and ENSO behaviour appear to be linked.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33526-4
Peter Etherington-Smith, you make me laugh. Your inane, fossil-fuel-funded comments pale against NASA’s 18,000 professional scientists and it’s $24 billion budget.
Donnie’s going to sack AGW supporters.
‘NASA has announced the dismissal of its chief scientist in its first round of cuts ordered by US President Donald Trump. The cuts affect 23 people, eliminating among others the Office of the Chief Scientist led by Katherine Calvin and chief technologist AC Charania.’ (ABC)
Upwelling in the south east Pacific indicates La Nina by Xmas.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-97.05,-3.20,535/loc=-98.358,-11.567
On the political front I predict Tim Wilson will be the new Liberal leader and Dan Tehan as his deputy.
Its the drys against the wets and I think the drys have it.
Ah Upwellings. Takes me back to David Stockwell’s sadly ignored paper on this major climatic factor:
https://arxiv.org/abs/0907.1650
Going back to the last half of 19th century Australia, it must have been fairly wet. The warm phase of the PDO intensifies El Nino and the cool phase intensifies La Nina.
https://chaac.meteo.plus/en/climate/pdon.png
On the evidence available its reasonable to suggest that La Nina-like conditions prevailed in Australia at the tail end of the LIA.
The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation was fairly negative throughout the LIA.
‘Paleoclimate reconstructions from the tropical Pacific region vary greatly during the Little Ice Age (LIA), although the reconstructed IPO index in this study suggests that the LIA was primarily defined by a weak, negative IPO phase and hence more La Niña–like conditions.’ (Porter et al 2021)
budbromley
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