I have a grandson; not quite six weeks old. I have been telling him – his name is River Jude – I have been telling Jude true stories about the Great Barrier Reef. I have told him that the corals across the bay from where we live in Yeppoon, that these corals in Keppel Bay bleached stark white earlier in the year.
It was on 19th April, exactly seven months before Jude was born that I rolled backwards – scuba tank on my back – backwards off the Keppel Dive boat at Bald Rock reef into the Great Barrier Reef. I was hoping that as with previous claims of mass bleaching, this was exaggerated.
The New York Times had featured corals from this reef in a single photograph as badly bleached. The claim was that all the corals were badly bleached, not just at the Keppel Islands but across the Great Barrier Reef.
In the shallow waters of Keppel Bay, coral bleaching on a mass scale has been infrequent and reef recovery has usually been fast. There was mass bleaching in Keppel Bay in 1998, 2002, 2006, 2020, with minor bleaching in between. There are also earlier unofficial reports by local fishermen of bleaching in 1983 and 1987.
The locals will tell you that Keppel Bay’s reefs can recover rapidly from bleaching because of the fast growing dominant branching Acropora species. After the catastrophic 2002 mass bleaching, coral cover increased rapidly, reaching 81 percent in 2004, the highest coral cover ever documented. I am quoting a local biologist. In fact data only goes back a few years before then.
Of course, bleaching has occurred over the millennia. It is just that scuba, and more specifically underwater photography, is a recent technology and then there is the politicisation of corals. The Great Barrier Reef is used by some to claim that we are irreversibly destroying the Earth. By “we”, I have already explained to Jude, my grandson who is not quite six weeks old, that he would be included but not until he gets a bit older.
Then there are others who claim record high coral cover at the Great Barrier Reef as though we – to include Jude when he is older – are having no impact on the Earth.
“What is the truth”, I have already asked Jude, and does it matter?
When I ask him such questions, and also questions about the cucumbers at the bottom of the sea, he looks back at me as though I already know the answer. I do explain that sea cucumbers are not to be confused with the cucumbers in our garden, that his Granddad has been growing for us.
His Mum and Dad, have already taken him across the bay, to Great Keppel Island, to have a look.
Jude has already been underwater at Secret Cove, with his Dad.
On 19th April, exactly seven months before he was born, I dove not only Bald Rock reef but also at Secret Cove. The corals at Secret Cove were also all stark white back then. Now the branching Acropora species are mostly all dead. But there are still lots of fish and sting rays, and sponges, epaulette sharks and sea cucumbers.
This past winter, when water temperatures dropped as usual by a full nine degrees Celsius, there were also humpback whales at Secret Cove and also at Bald Rock reef. Now these whales are underwater at the Antarctic and so many of the Acropora corals in Keppel Bay are dead from the coral bleaching last summer.
Jude’s Dad after taking him into the water at Secret Cove on 14th December, went and caught us a fish – a sweetlip that is a fish in the genus Plectorhinchus. The fish his Dad caught was in the same genus as the fish in the feature photograph, at the top of this Christmas note. His Dad steamed the fish, and then served it with ginger for dinner.
His Dad has been taking Jude into the sea every afternoon for the last two weeks – into Keppel Bay. Jude emerges with an extraordinary calmness about him. How I feel, when I am under the sea.
Best wishes to you for the New Year, may you find peace in nature if not in life.
Season’s Greetings!
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
What a u beaut Christmas story, hopefully we will have killed off climate stupidity by the time he’s diving ?
Best wishes Jennifer
I enjoy your blogs and views about the reef.
I’m 86 and don’t believe everything our government tells us.
Your blogs are an exception…thank you.
Michael
Compliments of the season to your growing family and yourself.
The Peru Current is being cut off by a warm stream, so is it reasonable to suggest that El Nino is predictable?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-110.87,-25.04,530/loc=-118.453,9.668
Best Wishes for the New Year. Keep the reports coming.
Your new grandchild will not be directly susceptible to the horrors of the current drought/famine in Sudan – but many other children will not be so fortunate.
The Regional Dry Cycle responsible, has just enveloped Africa and Europe and the ‘vanguard’ is moving across the the North and South Atlantic Oceans towards the Americas, at 15 degrees of Longitude per Thirty Day/Night Interval Month. This Dry Cycle started from 50 degrees East Longitude,(circa Madagascar) in early August 2024 – and will last over Africa and Europe for another twelve months,(depending on geographical location). It will affect Australia from Early January to mid-May, 2026.
The 2024 ‘Tomorrow’s Weather ‘ Update, (including relevant daily Global Precipitation Radar Mapping,) is now available as a free pdf from;
dongaddes93@gmail.com
The following ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ – thirty years on…. Update Parts, may be reconstituted to a single publication via a pdf editing facility ( such as Adobe, or similar).
TW– Part 1
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QGE9zWhiAWVDhinb57VNbkf8Lm4gTsv9/view?usp=sharing
TW– Part 2
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Nea7N5AiVoklvg9gGA1b3932Uq0-4qPK/view?usp=sharing
TW – Part 3
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UqxyNzLq14Jv7-kf6ZKHDOdmjgfst9zp/view?usp=sharing
TW – Part 4
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qsbYVDYzzGFOOAfE5-cuuOlLPW8Pg3Df/view?usp=sharing
Jenn, I’m confused. Is the reef bleaching or not? Are the temperatures increasing or not?
In one post you are telling us the reef is fine and AIMS are using inadequate assessment methods. Then you are commenting on the extensive bleaching.
Next you are telling us that temperatures are not warming and the data has been deliberately corrupted by Bom. Then you are commenting that the temperatures are actually warming, but it has nothing to do with fossil fuel and the increase in CO2.
‘Is the reef bleaching or not?’
Extreme bleaching 0n the GBR happens during strong El Nino, when oceans waters in the Western Pacific fall briefly and irradiating the corals.
‘Extreme El Niño events were the leading drivers of the mass bleaching events that occurred in 1983, 1998 and 2016 in the GBR.’ (ARC)
“While climate change is still the greatest threat to corals, this finding emphasizes the importance of considering the impacts of climate modes like ENSO and MJO, including their compounding effects, to assess the additional risks to corals.” (ARC)
I tried to get the water in the Western half of the bath to fall briefly – no go….
” … including their compounding effects, to assess the additional risks to corals.”
There are no additional risks to coral in the foreseeable future, natural variability rules, however if temperatures continue to rise until we reach the Holocene Climate Optimum, then we maybe in trouble.
Around 7000 years ago the coral in the South China Sea was periodically ‘cold bleached’ in winter and took 25 years to recover.
Goniopora corals dated between 7.0 and 7.5 ka BP abruptly died during winter seasons. This represents the first documented evidence for high-latitude “cold-bleaching” and mortality of reef corals during the “Early–mid Holocene climatic optimum” in East Asia, possibly related to
On the Great Barrier Reef the SST was also cooler than present.
‘The ancient corals revealed that about 5200 years ago, ocean temperatures at Heron Reef were 1.3°C–2.8°C cooler than present, and about 7000 years ago, they were 1.3°C cooler than present.
‘The results also suggest that a warm period known as the mid-Holocene Thermal Maximum occurred between 6000 and 6800 years ago, earlier than previous estimates that placed it between 5350 and 4480 years ago.’ (EOS)
Hi Jennifer. Congratulations on the arrival of your beautiful grandson. He is lucky to have you in his life, to show him the wonders of nature, and to explain the cycle of life at the GBR. May you have a wonderful year in 2025, and enjoy your family and grandson.
Imagine being a renowned climate change denier and having to explain things to your grand child in 25 years.
‘ … renowned climate change denier … ‘
You are seriously misguided, carbon dioxide doesn’t cause global warming.
Karen, what is wrong with this chart?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NASA_CO2_Chart.jpg
Ironicman, thank you for directing me to that image and associated webpage where it was originally posted.
https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/evidence/
If you believe there is nothing wrong with the chart then try digging a little deeper. Something happens to CO2 in ice cores, a fractionation process, so I’m saying the chart is flawed.
In might be of interest to watch the UAH, we appear to be at a tipping point.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_November_2024_v6.1_20x9-scaled.jpg
‘ … explain things to your grand child in 25 years.’
No worries.
https://www.csiro.au/en/news/All/Articles/2024/December/Great-Barrier-Reef-cool-water
Its undeniable, the planet is getting a makeover.
https://notrickszone.com/2024/12/30/scientists-report-a-striking-global-greening-trend-over-the-last-42-years/
‘This Dry Cycle … will affect Australia from Early January to mid-May, 2026.’
It would have to be a strong El Nino.
Is it possible to look back with this dry cycle? What was happening in the Pacific Ocean during the Little Ice Age?
The latter half of the LIA was wet in Australia, La Nina like conditions, while data further north indicates El Nino dominated.
Oz has been wet without La Nina.
‘What makes 2024 exceptional is that, unlike 2019, there was quite a lot of rain in Australia, with 2024 ranking as the country’s wettest year since 2011 and its 8th wettest year in records dating back to 1900.
‘Historically, Australia’s warmest years have coincided with periods of low rainfall and drought. While some parts of southern and western Australia did see lacklustre rainfall in 2024, most of the country was abnormally wet.’ (Weatherzone)
Karen, the expression ‘climate change denier’ is misinformation and peer review is dodgy.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/01/01/the-errors-and-misstatements-in-climate-denialism/
And the BBC is spreading disinformation.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2025/01/01/bbc-extreme-weather-lies-exposed/
ironicman; I suggest you read the links (provided above) for ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ – 30 years on. (Parts 1, 2, 3 and 4.) You will find relevant chronologies therein.
Dry Cycle Hierarchies have been responsible in the past for the decline and disappearance of whole civilisations, (Mill Creek People, Mycenae, etc.)
It is my contention that extinction of the Dinosaurs was initiated by a major series of Solar-induced Orbital Dry Cycles and resultant famine – not meteor strike.
ENSO does not exist – and never has.
Forecasting weather 30 years from now is unfalsifiable.
ENSO is real and the dinosaurs were eliminated by a cosmic impact, so maybe you should go with the evidence and less theory.
What happened to the dry cycle at the last Glacial Maximum?
In NSW sand dunes reached the Great Dividing Range and the environment was extremely dry for thousands of years.
Climbing out of the Little Ice Age, natural variability or industrial CO2?
https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/image-107.png?ssl=1
ironicman; If you read the work in question(which you haven’t,) you may note the chronology of the Dry Cycles constitutes a repeated frequency of 81 years for a hierarchy of Dry Cycles that last over varying timeframes. The chronology may be extended back as well as forward with equal precision – and is confirmed by direct observations and verifiable scientific research over many years, as offered in ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’– thirty years on….
Where is your evidence that the ‘dinosaurs were eliminated by a cosmic impact’?
Where is your evidence that ENSO exists?
Where is your evidence of a Decadal Oscillation?
Base 10 Maths has nothing to do with astronomical reality – the Dry Cycles have their genesis in Base 12 Maths and the Earth/Solar Orbital Calendar. The Number One Constant being the Earth Year, (360 degrees orbit around the Sun.) That is, 12 X 30 Day/Night Interval Months.
Maybe you should go with the evidence and less Fantasy.
I’m pretty sure a universal drought didn’t exterminate the dinosaurs, the end was instantaneous.
Closer to our own time we have the Younger Dryas, very cold and dry, but it seemed to only impact the Northern Hemisphere.
‘The hypothesis proposes that the airburst or impact of a comet ∼12,850 years ago caused the ensuing ∼1200-year-long Younger Dryas (YD) cool period and contributed to the extinction of the Pleistocene megafauna in the Western Hemisphere and the disappearance of the Clovis Paleo-Indian culture.’ (NIH)
Also, the Australian megafauna disappeared around 42,000 years BP because of a geomagnetic excursion.
‘Where is your evidence that ENSO exists?’
Strong El Nino bleach coral in the western pacific, you can count on it.
Don the pdf doesn’t work for me, only a black screen.
‘Where is your evidence of a Decadal Oscillation?’
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a standout.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/18/22/jcli3532.1.xml
CO2 is innocent of the charges laid against it.
https://notrickszone.com/2025/01/03/central-greenland-was-recently-ice-free-and-covered-with-plants-when-co2-was-under-300-ppm/
Ironicman, you left out this part from the above publication… “Analysis of these materials will refine the understanding of ice
and biosphere response during past warm periods, imperfect but
important analogs for human-induced climate warming.”
Thanks for bringing that to our attention, Bierman et al said that in the last paragraph, otherwise they won’t get funding. Its a gravy train.
ironicman; The provided links work perfectly on my computer. If you send me an email address, I will send you the pdf directly.
I assume the notion of ENSO Decadal Oscillations uses the Gregorian Calendar idea that an Earth/Solar Orbital Year consists of 365.?? Day/Night Intervals. Copernicus and Galileo
were vilified by the Catholic Church for their conviction that the Earth revolved around the Sun once a year. How do you achieve a Decadal Oscillation without an accurate primary Constant to define a Year?
Major volcanic eruptions over history have contributed to extended ‘cooling periods’ and subsequent agrarian/social disruption planet-wide.
What is a ‘geomagnetic excursion’ – sounds like a Solar-induced Orbital Dry Cycle?
Something on the Excursion.
https://www.uow.edu.au/media/2021/ancient-new-zealand-tree-reveals-a-turning-point-in-earths-history-42000-years-ago.php#:~:text=“This%20research%20documents%20dramatic%20environmental,left%20the%20freezer%20door%20open.
‘ … an accurate primary Constant to define a Year?’
We are talking about oceanic oscillations, variables almost impossible to predict with any certainty. Many of these oscillations are interlinked, teleconnections, which gives us a better chance of forecasting weather when they lock into place.
The Hunga Tonga eruption increased water vapour in the stratosphere, which has produced a global warming spike.
Latest UAH temps.
https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/UAH_LT_1979_thru_December_2024_v6.1_20x9-scaled-1.jpg?ssl=1
So we have a published, peer-reviewed paper that ironicman cherry picks information from that suits his narrative. But any information that doesn’t fit with his climate denier narrative, he declares as lies. This is why real scientists don’t take climate change deniers seriously.
The Denialati accepts that climate change on this planet has been happening for millions of years, we just don’t agree with the proposition that carbon dioxide causes global warming.
If you care to look at the ice cores it is clear that when the oceans warm it liberates more CO2 from depth. Best not put the cart before the horse.
Carbon dioxide didn’t bring us out of the Last Glacial Maximum.
https://theconversation.com/two-centuries-of-continuous-volcanic-eruption-may-have-triggered-the-end-of-the-ice-age-83420
Carbon dioxide does not cause global warming.
‘The findings reveal the dominant role of the oceans during the early part of the deglaciation and the effects of the regrowth of the terrestrial biosphere later in the deglacial transition. Before the deglaciation, during the Last Glacial Maximum, the carbon cycle was essentially at equilibrium.’ (Schmitt et al 2012)
Ironicman, all talk… no understanding.
Water vapour in the atmosphere is Reflective Albedo, it does not produce ‘a global warming spike’. Aerosols in the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions, result in Global Cooling.
A re-issue of the 4 part pdf links of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ 30 years on….that is compatible with the size restrictions imposed by Google Docs. I trust this solves any access problems.
TW– Part 1
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QGE9zWhiAWVDhinb57VNbkf8Lm4gTsv9/view?usp=sharing
TW– Part 2
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J5ud9jCvS6kZ1RIoUs2DI5pF2wtWWlyQ/view?usp=sharing
TW – Part 3
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UqxyNzLq14Jv7-kf6ZKHDOdmjgfst9zp/view?usp=sharing
TW – Part 4
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qsbYVDYzzGFOOAfE5-cuuOlLPW8Pg3Df/view?usp=sharing
ironicman; You now admit ENSO ‘Decadal Oscillations’ cannot be categorised as ‘Decadal’ and are impossible to predict.
The Oceans are not responsible for the destruction of water vapour in the upper atmosphere, that causes the Orbital Dry Cycles and subsequent Drought conditions.
Charged particles from the Sun are emitted at an exact frequency and for an exact duration. The Terrestrial Footprint starts from an exact Longitude on Earth – moving from East to West at 15 degrees of Longitude per 30 Day/Night Interval Month – and is therefor exactly predictable, by following the Earth/Solar Orbital Calendar.
Natural variability is hard to pin down.
‘On average, El Niño and La Niña occur every 3-7 years and each phase lasts about 9-12 months. ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon, so there must be changes in both the ocean and atmosphere.
‘If only one appears to be in El Niño or La Niña, the tropical Pacific ocean is ENSO-Neutral. Each phase of ENSO has distinct impacts that reverberate globally.’ (NOAA)
All the extra H2O in the stratosphere after Hunga Tonga has had an impact on world temperature, did it upset your dry cycle in the upper atmosphere?
‘Ironicman, all talk… no understanding.’
I’m strongly supported by paleo climate history, which suggests that our time is not unprecedented.
As you know the Holocene Interglacial is drawing to a close and I wish carbon dioxide did warm the planet.
The other thing, if you want to be alarmist, at the end of the Eemian Interglacial there was an inexplicable temperature spike before the world plunged into the abyss.
Mr G
‘This Dry Cycle … will affect Australia from Early January to mid-May, 2026.’
So you are predicting El Nino a year ahead, I think you’re on the money.
Warm water surrounds Australia, SST record broken.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/recordwarm-oceans-surrounded-australia-in-2024/1890249
Hunga Tonga erupted from Dec 20, 2021 to January 15, 2022. (see p 204)
A Minor Dry Cycle started over 170 E (New Zealand) in early May 2022 – and did not reach Australia, (155 degrees E) until early June 2022. Major flooding over Australia’s South -Eastern Seaboard occurred from early March 2022, to mid-April 2022, in conjunction with Hunga Tongas eruption aftermath – and a Wet/Normal Default Period between two Minor Dry Cycles, (see p167) .
The current longer term Regional Dry Cycle started over 150 degrees E (circa Madagascar) in early August 2024 and (moving East to West at 15 degrees Longitude per 30 Day/Night Interval Month,) has now reached the coast of South America. This Cycle will affect Australia from early January to Mid-May, 2026.
The next Minor Dry Cycle will Start over 140 degrees E (Central Australia) affecting Australia from early November 2026, to July 2027. as the vanguard moves from East to West – the East Coast of Australia will remain within the Wet/Normal Default state.
This is not predicting ‘El Nino’, it is predicting the onset of a Solar-induced Orbital Dry Cycle, as part of a continuing Hierarchy, ( as set out in the Chronology from page 147)
There are six and three quarter years,(81 months) between each Two Year Regional Dry Cycle – and two and three-quarter years,(27 months) between each One Year Minor Cycle.
These Cycles orbit at the same rate, (from East to West) and act in conjunction as a Dry Cycle Hierarchy. (3 X 27 months equals 81 months) the Ratio of 1:3. This ratio recurs in other areas of the work.(see Cycle Shift, pp 191-192)
Alex S. Gaddes’ Ratios Principle and the relationships between the Minor and Regional Cycles, is further explained in ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ – thirty years on….. The ‘thirty years on’, refers to the publication of Alex S. Gaddes’ original work, in 1990.
Read ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ – thirty years on.
So we can expect two dry spells close together, from January to mid-May 2026 and in November that year until July 2027.
I’ll look for a precedence.
‘Karen Klemp says
December 30, 2024 at 9:09 pm’
[blather deleted]
The best answer to this blather is here:
The wind goes toward the south, and turns around to the north.
The wind whirls about continually, and comes again on its circuit.
All the rivers run into the sea,
yet the sea is not full.
To the place from which the rivers come, there they return again.
(it’s not that Dr Marohasy hasn’t heard you again, it’s just that y’all are not saying anything new, or anything of any importance)
The precedence will be 81 years ago – 1945. ( TW. p 161)
You may note, the same Cycle Configuration occurred in 1986, 40 years six months from the previous event(Half of 81 years) but the Start Date of the attendant earlier Regional Dry Cycle was February 1984 – and the Start/End Longitude was 130 degrees W, (180 degrees difference, TW. p164 )
Two errors in the previous post;
The Minor Dry Cycles are two and one quarter years between Cycles. (not two and three- quarter years).
The current Regional Dry Cycle started at 50 degrees E,(not 150 degrees E)
The 81 year cycle might be related to the solar Wolf-Gleissberg cycle.
Coincidently the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was shifting into its negative phase around 1945 and in 1976 it became abruptly positive.
The Gleissberg Cycle modulates the 11 year Schwabe Cycle, which may have an impact on oceanic oscillations and weather.
“Your average La Niña forms in winter, peaks in late spring, then gradually weakens through summer. However, the current edition has not played by the rule book — for only the second time in 75 years, its onset has arrived in the middle of summer.”
There is also the 2,400 year Bray Cycle which caused the cold dry LIA.
‘The first low in the Bray cycle at about 0.4 kyr BP coincides with the Wolff/Spører/Maunder/Dalton cluster of GSM that took place during the coldest period of the Holocene that is generally known as the LIA. Due to have taken place during modern historic times, it is also the most well studied and known cold period.’ (Javier/Climate Etc)
As explained by Alex S. Gaddes, the Spin Ratio between the Earth and the Sun is 26.75:1, which simply means the Earth rotates on its axis 26.75 (26 and three-quarters) times to the Sun’s once. However, according to Strahler, the rotation rate of the Sun differentiates at a slower rate, from lower to higher latitudes….
It is for this reason that Alex used the value of 27 d, for the Sun’s Rotation rate, as his
No, 3 Constant,(TW. p19).
This 27 d rate also happens to be the Latitude of the Sunspots.
According to Alex S. Gaddes, the ‘Sunspot Cycle’ is actually a Sunspot Wave Frequency, used as his No.4 Constant, with a true value of 11.028148 years.
(Note, the 1:27 is replicated in the number value of the 27 months between Minor Dry Cycles, and the 81 months between Regional Dry Cycles; (3 X 27)
Alex also refers to Dr J. R. Bray (TW.p46);
“Nevertheless, the variations in summer sunshine, available for melting snow in the Northern Hemisphere, plainly determine the first-order pattern of past glaciations.”
Note: The elaboration in parenthesis [ ] is my own (see below).
In this paper Dr. J. R. Bray (Ref. No. 7) offers much evidence in support of the existence of a solar cycle of 2,400 – 2,700 years. This agrees well with my 2,770 year glacial cycle (see Ratio Cycles, pages 22 – 26.)
It is significant that Dr. Bray has taken pains to point out that the solar cycle is made up of multiples of other cycles. I quote from my paper written, entitled Nature’s Dozen and the Drought Cycles (Appendix 5.) “…..The above version is somewhat over-simplified; in reality the basic unit of the cyclic system is the single cycle.”
‘ … the solar cycle is made up of multiples of other cycles.’
Wheels within wheels, when the 1000 year Eddy Cycle is in tandem with Bray.
‘The more severe colder periods with extended periods of minimal solar activity occur when Bray lows and Eddy lows occur at about the same time. However, the sun is not the only natural cause of climate change. Ocean cycles or oscillations, often called “natural variability” can occur on millennial time scales as well.’ (Andy May)
Ocean Cycles occur ‘after the fact’ in relation to Solar Activity, Lunar Influence, and other Gravitational factors. The Sun is the Primary Instigator in the Solar System – and the resultant Dry Cycles in question are precise. Thus, the use of the Earth/Solar Orbital Calendar is essential in determining the exact rotational values and Terrestrial Footprints of the Orbiting Dry Cycles. The use of a ‘Decadal’ (Base 10) mathematical timeframe in any deliberations, (ENSO)renders any resultant predictive calculation inaccurate and flawed to the point of ‘useless’ – especially over an extended timeframe.
It should be noted that the Orbiting Dry Cycles move from East to West around the planet,
not the prevailing West to East (and towards the Poles) movement of weather patterns moving according to Axial Spin. This indicates a ‘retrograde’ activity in the Sun, from at least two sources, (Regional and Minor Dry Cycles) – perhaps to do with interacting ‘convection cells’.
The No.1 Constant, thus becomes 360 degrees of Rotation.
An Earth Year always consists of 360 Day/Night Intervals.
A Day/Night Interval is the time taken for the planet to orbit through One degree of Solar Longitude – and rotate through 360 degrees of Axial Spin.
‘Ocean Cycles occur ‘after the fact’ in relation to Solar Activity, Lunar Influence, and other Gravitational factors.’
True, but we have to come up with the evidence and ENSO gives us the opportunity to make a cyclic connection.
https://judithcurry.com/2023/07/18/the-2015-major-el-nino-was-predicted-years-in-advance-using-a-lunar-cycle/
Cycles here, cycles there… meanwhile temperatures steadily increase.
Admittedly its not looking good for the Denialati.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/uah-version-6/
If you’re planning on doing Climate Science 101 at a reputable university it might be best to take the cyclists more seriously, as a process of elimination.
Do you think Don’s Dry Cycle is incompatible with Anthropogenic Global Warming?
There was a Minor Dry Cycle that started from 130 degrees W Longitude,(East of Hawaii) in early August, 2015 and affected Australia from early January, 2016 to mid-June, 2016 –before ending over 50 degrees E Longitude, (circa Madagascar) in early August, 2016.
The Lunar Metonic Cycle (of 18. 61 years,) arrived at 2016.22.
I don’t know where Judith Curry got her information about a ‘major El Nino in 2015′ – but it was not a product of the Lunar Metonic Cycle.
At this stage it might be prudent to remind the reader how the Dry Cycles’ Terrestrial Footprint operates;
Tracking the Dry Cycle ‘Shift’.
Further to the thirty degrees Westward movement,(Drift,) between the Start Longitudes of each subsequent Regional or Minor Cycle, (As described by Alex S. Gaddes in his chapter 8, ‘The Drifting Droughts’) :
If we take the Start Longitude and Start Date of the 2017/19 Regional Dry Cycle and add Longitudinal Precipitation Data, we find major flooding events due West of 80 degrees East of Prime in early/mid-March 2019. This would indicate the Dry Cycle is shifting Westward in its entirety, (or ‘decaying’ from the East,) as the vanguard of the cycle has not yet reached the End Longitude. Thus, the term ‘Dry Cycle Shift’.
Consequently, this seems to indicate,(for the Regional Cycles,) the X Factor influence ends in the Sun, circa eight Earth months, (120 degrees at 15 degrees/month,) before the end of the operational 24 month Regional Dry Cycle Parameter.
The Actual Dry Cycle Terrestrial Footprint, (for the Regional Cycles,) thus becomes 16 months.
For the Regional Cycles;
The Regional Dry Cycle begins at the Cycle Start/End Longitude, moving Westward at 15 degrees longitude per month.
16 months into the Cycle’s terrestrial progress, the X factor influence concludes in the Sun. (Cycle Shift Date.) The Regional Cycle Vanguard continues to move Westward through the remainder of its 360 degree track, (120 degrees, or 8 months at 15 d/month,) to finish at the Cycle Start/End Longitude, at the same time as the Cycle Shift.
Following the Cycle Shift start, the Regional Dry Cycle Vanguard is progressively ‘overtaken’ and replaced by the subsequent Wet/Normal Period status quo, at a rate of 45 degrees/month, as the Cycle Vanguard continues at 15 degrees/month toward the 24 month, 360 degree Start/End Longitude. Thus, the Regional Cycle Vanguard and the Regional Cycle Shift, arrive at the Cycle Start/End Longitude simultaneously. The Regional Cycle Shift start date of 16 months after the Cycle Start date, provides the 16 month Actual Terrestrial Footprint for the Regional Cycles.
For the Minor Cycles;
Flooding/Precipitation data indicates that, as with a Regional Dry Cycle, the Minor Dry Cycle begins at the Cycle Start Longitude, moving Westward at 15 degrees Longitude per month.
Differing from the Regional Cycle; Eight months into the terrestrial progress of the Minor Cycle, the X Factor influence concludes in the Sun. (Cycle Shift Date.) The Minor Cycle Vanguard continues to move Westward at 15 degrees/month, through the remainder of its duration, to finish at the Cycle End Longitude, at the same time as the Cycle Shift.
If a Minor Cycle Duration of 12 months is maintained – and the Cycle Shift Rate remains at 45 degrees/month, the Cycle Shift will ‘overtake’ the Cycle Vanguard 12 months into the Cycle Duration, (provided the 8 month Cycle Shift Date is retained.)
There is no reason to believe (at this stage,) that the Shift Rate of 45 degrees/month does not apply for both Regional and Minor Cycles, so the Chronology will reflect this, until further specific revelations find otherwise.
Thus, (as it stands,) there is a 12 month, difference between the Duration Parameter of a Regional Cycle and that of a Minor Cycle.
The Regional Cycles have a Duration Length of 24 months, with an Actual Terrestrial Footprint of 16 months – while the Minor Cycles have a Duration Length of 12 months, with an Actual Terrestrial Footprint of 8 months.
Further research is required, to comprehensively determine the various correlations between the Minor Cycles in relation to the Regional Cycles – and the relationships of both these Cycles, with the X Factor influence and the dynamics of the Sun.
(pp 191-192. ‘Tomorrow’s Weather – thirty years on….)
As for the states of Temperature and Precipitation under the Dry Cycle Canopy;
The Temperature/Precipitation Paradox;
As the expelled Solar Particles interact with and remove/convert Water Vapor Albedo in the Earth’s upper atmosphere – there is a resultant increase in temperature via the commensurate increase in Solar Energy reaching the Earth’s surface. This increase in temperature over the various land masses under the orbiting Dry Cycle Canopy, results in increased evaporation but reduced precipitation,(due to the reduced Water Vapor Albedo) over these areas, with the likely consequence of developing Drought conditions over these affected land masses.
However, the associated increase in temperature over various substantial water-bodies (Oceans/Seas/Lakes,) under the Dry Cycle Canopy, results in increased evaporation and precipitation tendencies over these areas as well. These resultant storm-prone regions, are especially significant near the Dry Cycle vanguard, which is moving East to West at half a degree of Longitude per Day/Night Interval – and confronts the prevailing weather patterns moving West to East (and towards the Poles,) due to the Earth’s Axial Spin. These ‘conflicting’ forces however, do not prevent the overall reduction in precipitation over land and water, that the Solar-induced Orbital Dry Cycle brings.
The Oceans certainly represent key factors in the transfer of temperature and precipitation around the globe – including the mechanisms of heat transfer and convection – though the primary instigator of Temperature and Precipitation control at the Earth’s surface, is the immutable Dry Cycle Frequencies over time, that result in expulsion of charged particles from the Sun, which in turn leads to the alteration/conversion of Water Vapor Albedo,(Reflectivity) in the upper atmosphere – and subsequent Temperature rises under the resultant Orbital Dry Cycle Canopy.
It should be noted that other sources of Albedo,(such as Sea and Land Ice, Ocean reflectivity, wind-blown dust and Volcanism,) also affect Temperature and Precipitation – and remain important factors in the overall ‘cooling’ of the climate.
(see ‘The influence of ‘Albedo’ on the ‘Dry’ Cycles’, p 129).
Judith Curry is correct.
‘The 2015/16 El Niño broke warming records in the central Pacific, represented by the NINO3. 4 and NINO4 indices. At its peak in November 2015, the NINO3. 4 SST anomaly reached 3.0°C, breaking the previous record of 2.8°C set in January 1983.’ (ECMWF)
ENSO appears more active because of global warming.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso-global-temp-anomalies.png
Cycles here, cycles there, cycles everywhere.
Read my comment again;
‘A Minor Dry Cycle started from 130 degrees W Longitude, (East of Hawaii) in early August 2015….’
This Solar-induced Orbital Dry Cycle was not predicted ‘years in advance using a Lunar Cycle’,(as Judith Curry maintains.) The Lunar Metonic Cycle did not arrive until 2016.22,(as you will find in the Chronology set out in ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ – thirty years on…(p 167)
The Lunar Metonic Cycle affects the intensity of the Dry Cycles,(when it occurs in conjunction with them,) but it does not predict them.
El Nino has begun in the south east Pacific, the Peru Current will be stopped in its tracks and a year from now Australia should be in drought.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-112.00,-22.32,530/loc=-99.856,-51.104
‘Cycles here, cycles there, cycles everywhere.’
The earth system is complex and apparently chaotic, but AI should resolve this conundrum.
And thanks for this.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-07/australia-la-nina-could-be-back-summer-wet-weather/104787346
‘However, most modelling still forecasts average-to-above average temperatures across Australia for the first few months of 2025 — a result of very warm sea surface temperatures surrounding our country, climate change, and in the short term, an absence of monsoon rains.’ (ABC)
Leaving out climate change as a probable cause, the warm water surrounding Oz and monsoon failure are reasonable assumptions.
Also in that story the 2008-09 La Nina was a late starter and behaved badly, floods on the Top End and persistent drought in the south east.
‘The 2008–09 La Niña was a short event, bringing significantly above-average rainfall across the north of Australia, although most parts of southeastern Australia received below-average rainfall, consistent with persistent drought conditions in place for the region since at least 2000.’ (BoM)
Monsoon failure in Australia is rare, practically unprecedented, even during the LIA. I’ll look for a second opinion.
‘We find that while streamflow has been increasing since the 1800s, the most recent 40-year period is unprecedented in the last ∼600 years. Comparison to an independent coral-based streamflow record shows regional coherency in this trend.
‘Extreme high flows were found to be linked to La Niña events, but we found no significant relationship between streamflow and El Niño events, or streamflow and other regional climatic drivers.’ (Higgins et al 2022)
ironicman says
January 9, 2025 at 3:40 pm
Monsoon failure in Australia is rare, practically unprecedented, even during the LIA.
————————————————–
Try looking up the year 1900… we do have monsoon failures in Australia.
Increased surface temperatures equals increased evaporation, equals increased precipitation – except under the canopy of a Solar-induced Orbital Dry Cycle.
Not ENSO.
Moving away from monsoons to the eastern seaboard.
‘Eastern Australia hydroclimate experienced a distinct wet phase from c. 1500–1890 CE and since the end of the Little Ice Age, there has been a marked drying in eastern Australia.’ (Tibby et al 2018)
So during the Little Ice Age wetter conditions prevailed, your dry cycle is nowhere to be seen.
ENSO is cyclic, sine waves are clearly visible and there is a repetitive quality with a lag.
https://judithcurry.com/2019/09/01/enso-predictions-based-on-solar-activity/
What is causing this marine heatwave?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-159.32,-21.87,264
This anomalous late La Nina has dampened down the bushfire season along the Great Dividing Range.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/47c-heat-and-severe-storms-on-the-horizon-for-australia/1890260
A Regional (Two Year)Dry Cycle started from 140 degrees E (Central Australia,) in May 1761, affecting Australia from May 1761 ~ mid April, 1763. Moving forward, the equivalent happened next in May, 1842 – and then again in May, 1923 etc. (see the Chronology, p148)
If you wish to extrapolate the sequence back further – please do so. It is a simple mathematical task.
The current Dry Cycle Vanguard has reached 40 degrees W Longitude(Brazil,) which means the raised surface temperatures under the Orbiting Dry Cycle Canopy, should be affecting the Southern Ocean around Cape Horn and up the coast of Eastern South America.
North and South America are entering a year of drought.
There is no such thing as an ‘anomalous late La Nina’. Australia currently remains in the ‘default ‘ Wet/Normal state it has been in since mid-January 2023 – until the current Regional Orbital Dry Cycle Vanguard arrives to affect the country from early January, 2026, to mid-May, 2026.
The transfer of raised surface temperatures via the Oceans from East to West (implied by ENSO), could only happen via something akin to the defined and observed Orbiting Solar-induced Dry Cycle Influences – involving ‘retrograde’ activity in the Sun, causing reduced water vapour (reflective Albedo) in Earth’s upper atmosphere – and subsequent increased surface temperatures on Earth. Otherwise, such a transfer of temperature via the Oceans, would be acting contrary to the West to East (and towards the Poles) direction and influence of Axial Spin – and similarly, the West to East travel of prevailing weather patterns.
Its a big island so we should focus on south east Australia. Bingo!
Prolonged dry conditions were identified in various parts of the region during 1837–1843 and 1845–1852, while wet conditions were noted from 1836 to 1838, primarily in southern SEA.
‘Anomalously cold periods were also identified in 1835–1836 and 1848–1849, in general agreement with temperature reconstructions from other regions of the Southern Hemisphere.’ (Ashcroft et al 2014)
‘Australia currently remains in the ‘default ‘ Wet/Normal state it has been in since mid-January 2023 …’
Fair enough, this default wet/normal state was commonplace during the LIA.
‘As studied by Tibby et al. (2018), lake records from Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland suggest that conditions in the east and the south-east of Australia were wet and unusually cool from the 16th to the early 19th centuries. That corresponds with the “peak” of the global Little Ice Age from 1594 to 1722.’ (wiki)
By the way, in 1761-62 El Nino was active and Australia would have been dry. Congrats, you’re on a roll.
You are missing the ‘variable’ of active volcanism and its ability to exacerbate the Wet/Normal ‘default’ periods – and ameliorate the impacts of the Dry Cycles.
In Australia’s case this is noticeably manifest in the North-West cloud-bands, (North-West to South-East,) originating from Indonesian Southern Hemisphere volcanic activity.
Northern Hemisphere volcanic activity results in the increases in precipitation and cooling moving from South-West to North-East, eg. Japan and the Philippines towards Alaska/Canada/North America.
Australia is also ‘home’ to a considerable desert, arid and semi-arid environment, (North-West to South-East.) You may not have read the relevant sections on this subject, or the onset of Ice Ages.
Appendix 4:
Model of a Convection ‘Still’ Alex S. Gaddes.
Raising of climatic temperature to a mean, specific, critical point, somehow dissociates moisture from lower atmosphere.
The more moisture used up, the drier and hotter the climate, the more dry air available to the convection ‘still’. So, the more super-cooled air delivered at the Poles.
Areas with drought conditions would be prevalent and widespread. Unexplainable ‘spot droughts’ would be conspicuous.
The deserts would tend to migrate away from the poles, ahead of cooler and wetter conditions. The vortex would centre over the point of greatest surface value of terrestrial G, in this case the Poles,
Thus, it seems, that there would always be extreme cold at the Poles (no matter where situated) so long as there were deserts and/or areas of dry air supply, in conjunction with required mean, specific, critical temperature.
The nightmarish hurricanes etc. which blast down from the Poles, would enter the lower atmosphere via the roaring circular cataracts over the Poles, the velocity of which would be easy to calculate from Density – Volume – Height.
It would be analogous to a kind of ‘invisible super Niagara’, but none the less real.
How else can the observed phenomena be explained? As far as I’m aware, the ratio of the lower atmospheric winds blowing to the Poles, to those blowing from the Poles is relatively low – where, density considered, there ought to be hurricane force winds, of greater mean volume and velocity blowing to the Poles, simultaneous with those blowing away there-from.
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Even granting the above to be the case, would the enormous volume of warm air moving towards the Poles, spend sufficient time there to bring about the observed reduction in temperature? I doubt it. The role played by the Polar night, would be, I believe, only a supplementary one.
No one has yet explained to my satisfaction, just how this ‘snap freeze’ is brought about. It is beyond my comprehension to grasp, if the Pole itself is endowed with such physical powers! The model (Fig. 18) shows that the latter would not be necessary.
The above hypothesis has the advantage of being readily accessible to scientific test.
Mawson states that the average wind velocity for one year (continuous) at their base at Adelie Land, was 50 mph.*
As this record was taken about 1000 miles from the Pole, it would be reasonable to suppose that closer proximity to the Poles would make for higher average velocities.
Now if (as has been vaguely shown, in most authoritative works that I have been able to find) the devious wind currents moving from the equator to the Poles, finally reach the Poles (after continually changing direction and, presumably, gaining in density) and duly swing around to thereby commence the journey back to the equator, from whither comes the energy to accelerate the velocity of the (now) high density air?
*I learned from Mr. Robert Smith, who was a passenger in the recent Dick Smith tourist plane to Antarctica, that they enjoyed perfect weather, without a sign of turbulence on the Antarctic continent during the flight. Does this mean the tropospheric energy is also being piped away along with our momentum? For instance, how to explain the riddle of the missing Westerlies? Not all that long since, these ‘Roaring Forties’ could be guaranteed to set in (at this latitude, about 35 degrees south) around August, and continue to blow for about two months.
Would the low density in-going winds have the right order of velocity and whatever to make this geophysical U-turn and retain the observed characteristics?
Whereas; the mechanics of the hypothetic convection ‘still’ require only that the volume of warm dry air rises to a height whereby it gains a position of potential energy, from where it becomes gradually denser.
It would already be rotating, with Earth. As it gained density, so would it gain momentum. This, in turn, would be governed by the laws of the vortex? (see appendix. 6.) Also, Kepler’s Second Law would govern the gradual decrease in velocity, as it reached the Pole.
The problem is, how did the Jet Stream gain such a high peripheral velocity?
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Fig. 18: Convection Still
To me it seems that this would be a kind of equilibrium of spin. The above
would be the velocity of rotation of Earth at the surface (109istogr.) 1000 mph.
Still following Kepler’s Second Law, we produce the hypothetic sweeping line from the axis of the Earth to a position in space, indicated by the peripheral velocity of the jet stream, over and above the mean velocity at Earth’s surface.
Another factor would be centrifugal force, caused by high velocity of periphery, would accommodate the fresh, warm, dry air, whilst space would be provided, as air cooled and became denser; so ‘sinking’ and spiraling toward the greatest point of value of terrestrial G – at the Poles. Thus we have two basic features of spin, as components of the basic cause, as well as warm, dry air rising and terrestrial G.
From the above considerations the requirement necessary to start the ‘still’ is the raising of the mean, specific, critical temperature of an area large enough to create enough dry air to inaugurate the jet stream.
From there on, the system would be more or less self-regulating – the mechanism relying on a constant supply of warm, dry air. The basic energy would ultimately be derived directly from the Sun and Earth rotation.
Basic causal factors behind the Ice Ages then, are:
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1. The Sun, the basic heat energy;
2. Warm, dry air rising (potential);
3. Rotation of Earth (velocity) with gradual cooling to give momentum;
4. Centrifugal force (differentiation);
5. Terrestrial gravitation (centre of spin) finally brings about cataract of super-cooled air delivered to Earth’s surface, at or about the Poles, plus all the kinetic energy derived from the forgoing potentials, which, I believe, is quite considerable.
Points taken from the Model;
The fact that, as the air becomes more dense, so its degree of inertia must rise in direct proportion, must have a significant effect. According to Newton, the higher the degree of inertia, the greater the tendency to move in a straight line at constant speed.
It seems to me that a high degree of inertia would (in conjunction with a progressively shorter distance of revolution) tend to have a compensating effect for gravitation.
This bearing in mind the tendency to maintain the initial peripheral speed, plus the fact that the whole spinning mass would have a tendency to move toward the point of least resistance, owing to reduction of pressure at periphery, plus the added tendency to freeze up, according to the principle of the spinning cone.
Subsequent Notes;
On completion of my ‘model’ I forwarded to Dr H. J. Harrington of the University of New England. He referred me to Arthur N. Strahler’s ‘The Earth Sciences’, (Harper.)
On thoroughly sifting the relevant data I decided to leave my ‘model’ in its original form because of the limits of my technical qualifications.
My initial intention was to air my theory about basic causal relationships, in this case the analogy of the spinning cone, causing reduction of pressure and a tendency to freeze up.
The fact that there has been (evidently) more than one Ice Age seems to argue 110
that the Ice Ages (present anyhow) show evidence of a rhythmic or pulsating movement in time, suggests the specific presence of those very same basic factors, even at this specific point in time.
It would simplify matters to know what, in fact, constitutes normal global climatic conditions, in the absence of an Ice Age.
As far as I can ascertain, man has never known any other existence, nor may he ever live outside an ice Age environment.
The distribution of the major deserts of the Earth in the Northern Hemisphere, seems to me not at all coincidental in the scheme of the present Ice Age and its progenitors.
Geologists might do well to study the documents of the rocks, with an eye for the hemispherical distribution of ancient desert landscapes with relation to Ice Ages, in time.
On being advised by Dr Harrington of the correlation by scientists of the Chandler Wobble etc. with the occurrence of major earth-quakes, I was moved to seek a cause for the phenomena (see pages 166-7 of Ref. No.17,)
Considering this information in conjunction with the Law on Conservation of Angular Momentum, it seems that, if the intensity of the Jet Stream is greater in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern, it should follow that there ought to be a greater transfer of angular momentum in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern.
Assuming the above to be the case, it should follow that the rotation of the Northern Hemisphere would tend to slow down to a greater degree than that of the Southern, with a consequent resultant stress (torsion) which must ultimately find release, after elastic limit is reached, by dislocating the Earth’s crust.
This ‘brake’ being applied, unevenly, to the one Hemisphere, would tend to instigate the Chandler Wobble as well as other local irregularities of rotation, plus the enigmatic pear shape of the Earth.
From the above considerations it is tempting to conclude that major Earth dislocations and volcanicity be likely attendants with glaciation.
Geologists might do well to study the rate of incidence of major earthquakes. Should their occurrence coincide with the progressive intensity of the Jet Stream, it might give food for thought.
This idea might also be extended to explain the origin of the Tethys’ Shear, along with certain types of mountain building and rift valleys.
It might well turn out that the energy for driving at least some of the mechanism of the mobile crust of our Earth, is derived ultimately from the Sun,
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via the deserts, via the Jet Stream, via the conservation of angular momentum. Once again in this lengthy investigation, which had its origin rooted in an attempt to explain the riddle of the Copeton diamonds, the wheel has gone the
complete circle.
We once again arrive at my former conclusion, that of a convection ‘still’ being the mechanism of glaciations, with all the above inferred phenomena (and other unknown factors) incorporated as part of a stupendous cycle of nature.
To speculate further, it is interesting to go back to the evidence of the ancient corals, which argues for a much longer year – over 400 days in some cases.
When bracketed with the foregone observations, it does seem to add allure to the whole idea.
How many times have we slowed down in the past (in the long term,) as the Jet Stream asserted its growing intensity, only to speed up again as it waned? If 400 days be a maximum, then what is the number for the minimum?
Whatever the number for the minimum was in the past, I suspect very strongly that it would be directly proportionate to the area and geographical distribution of the deserts of the day.
Alex S. Gaddes’ Model for a Convection ‘Still’ – Fig. 18 ( p109)
This diagram would not print, so you will have to look it up in the pdf ‘Part 1’.
‘ … via the Jet Stream, via the conservation of angular momentum.’
The jet stream has been meandering for a couple of decades, what exactly is causing this?
The Southern Hemisphere came out of the LIA in the mid to late 19th century, when icebergs in the Southern Ocean were large and numerous, a clear illustration of angular momentum.
‘You are missing the ‘variable’ of active volcanism and its ability to exacerbate the Wet/Normal ‘default’ periods – and ameliorate the impacts of the Dry Cycles.’
That is the fudge factor.
‘The 2021-2022 Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruptions had an underestimated natural role in climatic change.
‘This study has shown that the record rainfall in Australia and New Zealand during February 2022 following the large sub-aerial eruption on 15th January, 2022 including the development of Tropical Cyclone Dovi was the result of the switch to atmospheric cooling triggered by the sub-aerial eruption. This is supported by observation records including satellite data.’ (The Saltbush Club)
El Nino was active in 1681, after a decade of La Nina-like conditions, also in 1600-01 El Nino prevailed.
We are now in the depths of the LIA.
From here on its teleconnections.
‘Lead researcher Professor Adam Scaife, of the Met Office and the University of Exeter, said, “This latest research reveals that El Niño is often followed by positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) a whole year later, while La Niña is followed by negative NAO one year later.’ (Phys.org)
The cool wet summers in England 1570s, 1590s and 1620s suggests La Nina-like conditions.
El Nino was definitely active 1600-01, the agricultural records show they had good harvests from 1598 to 1606.
Its an inexact science.
Rapid rise in atmospheric CO2 marked the end of the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age.
Nat. Geosci. (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01610-2
“It remains to be seen whether a future Large Igneous Province event will similarly end the currentLate Cenozoic Ice Age, or whether the emergence of an evolutionarily extremely successful organism (that is, humans) may lead to a geological-scale climate transition.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01610-2
(P 186, ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ – thirty years on….)
The influence of Indonesian Volcanism
associated with the 2020 Minor Dry Cycle over Australia.
(as per Chapter 8)
“Key to Australia’s Hope –
Indonesia’s erupting volcanos.”
May 21, 2020;
Mount Merapi, 7.54 d S, 110.44 d E, (near Yogyakarta, Java) in continuing eruption –
A visible 2000 km cloud band from Indonesia resulting in flooding for Northeast Queensland.
“Meteorologist Shane Kennedy said the wet weather was caused by tropical moisture drawn all the way from Indonesia across the state, being undercut by colder and drier air, forcing the tropical moisture up and forming a very thick cloud band and rain.
“It is quite an unusual set-up for this time of year,” Mr Kennedy said.
“We do have an out-of-season tropical low near Indonesia that’s causing a lot of the moisture source and the Indian ocean in our vicinity is much warmer than usual.”
“It’s providing a lot of rich, tropical air that’s being drawn down across Australia.” (ABC News Report)
Karen the rise in CO2 happened after the warming started, there maybe a clue in the rocks. In pushing their AGW meme they are clutching at straws.
Don we agree that volcanic eruptions impact weather and if they persist it can influence climate change, the Mt Takeha eruption is a prime example.
First came the eruptions and then CO2 began to rise.
‘Our reconstruction also revealed an unexpected end to the icehouse period. Scientists previously thought that the Late Palaeozoic ice age gradually waned away, but our findings showed it ended much earlier.
‘Around 294 million years ago, large-scale volcanic activity triggered a rapid rise – at least on geological timescales – in atmospheric CO₂, and Earth became warmer and drier.’ (Jurikova/ The Conversation)
The Samalas eruption on Lombok in 1257 ushered in the Little Ice Age.
We were already sliding into the Wolf Minimum.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spörer_Minimum#/media/File:Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg
Ironicman… yes, CO2 goes up, temperatures almost always go up. Industrialised people produce CO2 and temperatures are going up. Something fossil fuel companies want to hide. Follow the money.
So, 294 million years ago, the ‘rise in volcanism was responsible for the rise in CO2 ‘ ????? What happened to AGW? How does increased atmospheric Albedo cause ‘warming’?
That reminds me of the bogus Ozone Hole scare of the mid-1980’s – subsequently it was recognised by the perpetrators, there never was any ‘hole’.
The Ozone layer is constantly replenished and is subject to the same ‘Axial Spin Factors’ as the Jet Stream. Neither phenomenon remains ‘static’. (Note; Vortices).
The ‘conversion’ of water vapour Albedo into Hydrogen and Oxygen by the impact of charged particles associated with the ‘retrograde’ impact of the Orbital Dry Cycles – would seem to leave ample scope for the constant replenishing of ozone, (O3 ).
‘Follow the money.’
That is what the right say about the Renewable industry.
Industrial CO2 is minuscule compared to natural outgassing from the oceans. It would be worthwhile to follow that up.
The Southern Ocean is a sink where CO2 flux varies from year to year and of course there has been some discussion on ‘acidification’, which should be taken with a grain of salt.
Jumping to the chase, this is the Establishment viewpoint.
‘Measurements of carbon-13 and carbon-14, relative to carbon-12, confirm that the increase in CO₂ concentration since 1800 originates principally from fossil fuel and land clearing emissions.
‘Electricity production involving the burning of fossil fuels is the predominant contributor to Australia’s CO₂ emissions.’ (CSIRO)
Don, the ozone hole recovery was driven by human intervention via the Montreal Protocol. A success story that the fossil fuel industry would like to hide within one of your many “cycles”.
The ozone hole waxes and wanes with the seasons, more or less depending on other natural variables.
DuPont is accused of manipulation for commercial advantage.
According to Rankama and Sahama (Ref. No. 14) the oceans act as a sink for any build-up in carbon dioxide above a partial pressure (PP) in the atmosphere; that once the critical PP in the atmosphere is reached, the excess carbon dioxide is taken into solution by the oceans.
They note that the cold polar waters are capable of the greatest absorption of carbon dioxide. Apparently the equilibrium ratio of carbon dioxide in sea water to that in the atmosphere is 50:1.
Not Constant
From the initial discovery of 14C (radio-carbon) in the ring-wood, it was the logical next step to make the further discovery, that the 14C component of the tree-rings under study, did not remain constant throughout a cross-section of the tree.
It is common knowledge that the basic element in the make-up of all life, as we know it, is carbon and this includes trees. There are five known carbon isotopes; the isotopes 10C and 11C are artificially radio-active, as also is 14C, but unlike 14C the isotopes of 10C and 11C have short half-lives.
The two remaining isotopes of Carbon, 12C and 13C are both stable, with 12C being the much more abundant of the two. It was first discovered in 1939 by Weir and Gulbransen, that there are changes in the 12C/13C ratios of terrestrial materials.
They found that 13C is concentrated in limestones, but plants display a distinct preference for the light isotope, 12C.
It has been discovered that 14C is constantly being formed in Nature. This process is believed to come about as a result of the bombardment of the Earth’s atmospheric carbon, by galactic cosmic rays that are able to penetrate the solar system to the Earth.
Deflects Cosmic Rays into Space
However, high solar activity reduces the galactic cosmic ray flux on Earth, by virtue of the fact that high solar activity means a strong solar magnetic field, which is known to act as a shield against the cosmic rays and so deflects them away from Earth, into outer space.
Thus, during periods of high solar activity, reducing the amount of 14C in Earth’s atmosphere (there is a 1,000-2000 year and 2,000-2,700 year oscillation noted in the 14C flux in Earth’s atmosphere (see Ref. No. 6.)
From the above information it is but a short step to make the correlation between the ratio of the 12C/14C in the ring-wood of the trees under study, with the climate/weather records.
So it follows, that the concentration of the 14C in the ring-wood is inverse to the strength of the solar activity index. In simple language, a high 14C reading denotes low solar activity and vice versa; studies have shown the above conclusion to be unambiguous.
‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ Alex S. Gaddes,(1990)