Southeast Queensland has experienced heavy rain with storms dumping more than 80mm in some parts, causing widespread flash flooding. I am sorry for everyone who has been flooded. It can be devastating – flooding and losing things.
Totals of 80 mm, 86 mm and 70 mm in just a few hours are being quoted in the mainstream news as though this is a lot.
In reality southeast Queensland, especially the Brisbane catchment has always and often experienced heavy rain. The highest 24-hour rainfall total for anywhere in Australia is 907 mm at Crohamhurst, in the Brisbane catchment, recorded on February 3, 1893.
No error in those numbers if you read eighteen ninety-three. We had some very wet days back more than 100 years ago, and probably the very wettest year on record is 1974. But as a civilization we like to pretend otherwise.
We like to pretend there is something special about modern weather, and that we are somehow to blame. This has more to do with the human condition, than the actual weather that tends to follow cycles.
There is a letter in today’s The Australian newspaper, entitled ‘The pretend game’ it refers to politics and a culture of ‘pretending’ in the name of political correctness, especially at universities and also in Canberra. Reference is made to men pretending to be women, pretending to power the nation with renewables, and pretending all cultures are equally good, etcetera. Of course, no mention is made of all the pretending about the weather being special, and our fault.
There is another letter, also in the newspaper, right next to the letter about all the pretending. It is about the Bureau of Meteorology and forecasting the weather, which is also very much pretend. If the Bureau was serious about weather and climate forecasting it would give up with its pretend General Circulation Models. John Abbot writes:
Weather and climate forecasts using Artificial Intelligence (AI), particularly artificial neural networks (ANNs), are more reliable and skilful than traditional methods using General Circulation Models (GCMs). I have been publishing in the international peer-reviewed literature and running courses for Indonesian meteorologists, demonstrating the technique for over a decade. I first visited the Australian Bureau of Meteorology with Jennifer Marohasy in August 2011, to show the skill of my monthly forecasts using AI, relative to the Bureau’s using General Circulation Models that attempt to mimic the physical process. These are the same models used by the IPCC and have proven unable to forecasting more than 4 days in advance.
The Bureau has steadfastly refused to consider AI despite it showing a capacity to produce skilful location-specific rainfall forecasts from one day (models developed by Google) to 18 months in advance (models developed by Abbot and Marohasy).
In ‘BOM out of climate driver confusion’ (Weekend Australian page 3), Karl Braganza claims an inability to forecast because of climate change. In the same article, University of Melbourne weather researcher Kimberley Reid claims GCMs (physical models) are better than historical precedence. The reality is that Australia, and much of the West, is being left behind as China, Indonesia and others move to weather forecasting using AI.
Dr John Abbot, Senior Fellow, Institute of Public Affairs
Indeed, it is time that those managing different key institutions across the West, not only, but also weather bureaus were held to account for the choices they make when it comes to not only, but especially weather and climate forecasting.
It is no secret that Andrew Johnson, the current head of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, was a political appointment. He was reappointed for a further five-year term in 2021 despite the Bureau’s dismissal record of weather and climate forecasting.
***
The photograph at the top/feature image was taken of me ten years ago by a photographer at The Australian, that is when journalist Graham Lloyd published a series of articles in The Australian newspaper about the need for reliable historical temperature and rainfall data. We were hopeful, so hopeful, that Tony Abbott, back then the Prime Minister of Australia was going to do something about all the deceit and pretending. Instead he did nothing. Of course, all that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Pretty much the same story where we live, the hottest temperature recorded at Leeuwin Lighthouse which has been recording since the late 1800’s was recorded in February in 1932, funny but at about the time the hottest temperature in New York was recorded and the American Prairies were being turning into dust bowls, farmers were walking off their land. So what is the Bureau of Meteorology solution to this problem. They homogenize the data with data from a site that is 150kms away where there is warming being shown. In effect pushing down early recordings and up later recordings to create the Myth of Global Warming.
Funny the station used is situated inland and away from the ocean in a farming community and in the middle of a bitumen car park and surrounded by a 2 meter high Colourbond fence. I just wonder why it would be showing some warming. The fact that the Bureau of Meteorology Scientists are not smart enough to recognize the problem is the part that worries me the most. Are they complete fools or just Ideologues.
Brian, here is the temperature data for Leeuwin. Notice anything strange?
https://i.imgur.com/1uBchG3.jpeg
Nothing strange there they “homogenized the using other stations that had nothing to do with Leeuwin so that they could get the warming they wanted.
Woops sorry typing let me down. The current data has been adjusted twice by the BoM to get that result the first adjustment did not give them enough warming so a second adjustment was done in almost every site they adjusted down earlier temperatures and up later temperatures. If you are interested I have some documentation on this particular site, please send an email address to itwit13@gmail.com and I will be happy to forward it to you.
We all know there has been global warming it started in the 1700’s after the Little Ice Age and has continued since then. The rate is about 1 degree per century, the debate is whether it is caused by man. Since this warming commence long before the beginning of the Industrial Revolution then in my opinion it is natural and has nothing what so ever to do with Man Made CO2. Can I suggest you search co2 coalition. They have some very up to date information there and the people are very experienced Meteorologists.
Brian, perhaps you brain has been homogenised. Did you not notice that the climate average was averaged over 128 years?
Is insulting people a learned skill or are you simply ignorant. Did you have to go to a university to acquire this skill. An average of 128 years of data that is not the original data is meaningless. My statement was that despite the homogenized data the warmest day on record for this station remains 1933. i.e. despite the BoM’s attempt to change the data it did not work the hottest day on record remains Feb 1933.
Brian, you enthusiastically insult BoM while cherry-picking data that supports your narrative.
Obviously politicising Climate is all about money and control, but who’s pulling the puppet strings?.
If the BoM wants to Homogenise or fiddle with Their Data twice in fact, it is hardly an insult to state that fact, however, telling people that they wear tin hats and have homogenised their brain is hardly a fact, it is a very feeble attempt to insult them, the sort of behaviour that I normally expect from a juvenile or an ideologue who does not have any facts to argue an issue with. The normal pattern from people like this is to now call the people they are insulting Racists or Climate Deniers, again with absolutely no facts to substantiate this either. The FACT remains that despite two adjustments to Their Data where the BoM adjusted down earlier data and up later data an easily checked fact, the hottest day on record for Cape Leeuwin remains in February 1933. Your attempts at insulting me has not put up a single fact to refute this statement. Now any thinking person would say “hold on if we have had all this global warming how come we have not had a hotter day than the one in 1933”
Brian, you are quoting a single day in 1933 when the ‘weather’ was very hot, while ignoring over 46,000 other days that show ‘climate’ warming.