“THE process of long range forecasting is thousands of years in the making and is still used in older cultures. The Greeks inherited their knowledge from the people of the Indus Valley and Asia, Hebraic Sumerians, Chaldeans and from northern Africa. Agricultural economies needed reliable calendars and recognition of systems that both influenced and tracked seasonal fluctuations. Monitoring developed in several cultures at once over several millennia and survives today in the Near and Far East
The sacred knowledge that was passed down was that orbiting planets affect Earth and finding past matches of cycle peaks and troughs were pointers for long range predicting. It has nothing whatever to do with carbon dioxide. In exploring relationships larger planets have to each other we can observe that the so-called gas giants affect the sun when they are at certain angles. Also we can record over time how the moon causes tides in land, sea and air and how this brings cycles of, in land – earthquakes, on water – kingtides and floods, and through the atmosphere – heat waves and droughts.
Every 20 years both Jupiter and Saturn are alongside each other on one side of the sun (last in June 2000, next in November 2020) and on opposite sides of the sun (last on September 2010 and next in September 2030). From the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn comes the decadal sunspot cycle. This regularly repeating pulse of radiation affects earth’s electromagnetic field and in turn influences the atmosphere. The 11-12yr sunspot cycle correlates with Jupiter’s 11.8-yr cycle orbiting Earth
I’m quoting Ken Ring, writing for Yahoo news.
But the mainstream climate science community is intent on denying such cycles.
On page 5 of The Weekend Australian newspaper is an article by Graham Lloyd explaining how difficult it was for Australian scientist Robert Baker to get work published that suggested natural climate cycles should be taken into account when considering coastal planning and the threat of sea level rise.
In fact, as I see it, the mainstream climate science community is intent on destroying any evidence of natural climate cycles embedded in historical temperature data. I have gone into some detail, explaining the practical implications of this wanton disregard for the received evidence, in my most recent letter to Senator Simon Birmingham who has been delegated responsibility for oversight of the activities of the Bureau of Meteorology by Minister Greg Hunt.
Copies of all my correspondence to Ministers Hunt and Senator Birmingham are available online here: http://jennifermarohasy.com/correspondence/
If you share my concerns, what about sending the Senator your own letter or email asking that he intervene and stop the Bureau continuing with this revisionist approach to history. His contact details are here… http://www.senatorbirmingham.com.au/contact . As Edmund Burke wrote: All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
In the past I have contacted Simon Birmingham re MDBasin legislation and management of the Lower Lakes but he chooses to not “rock the boat” and goes along with the present environmental consenus. Pollies in general are always concerned about where their next vote comes from; any thing like the CSIRO revisionist activities will quickly get swept under the carpet, like on the international scene and the MH 17 airplane tragedy. We can but try and bring it to public attention. Best wishes and I look forward to reading more of your researches. Allano
I have to share the content of an email just received in response to this blog post… It’s as if the planets don’t exist anymore. I mean, I’ve lost nuts and bolts from my truck, and some odd socks from my laundry, but losing a whole cosmos? Jeez Wayne…
Couldn’t stop laughing…
1 ) Augur definition..: one of a group of ancient Roman officials charged with observing and interpreting omens for guidance in public affairs.
2) Auger..; a tool resembling a large corkscrew, for boring holes in wood.
3) Augur well..: To foreshadow a successful outcome, indicated by some circumstance or event.
4) Auger..: a marine mollusc of warm seas with a slender tapering spiral shell.
5) Auger..: Flying term for crashing. Usually used for spiraling in.
” He lost control of the airplane and augered hard into the forest.”
6) Auger..: a spiral boring action into another substrate. “I plan to auger into that bar stool until I drink my fill of ye olde tasty beverage.”
One has to say, Jen…Your attempt to “auger” (2) the science may not “Auger”(3) well…perhaps it would be best to take the advice offered and “Auger” (6) !
Larry’s comment: Ancient astronomy buffs were a lot smarter than we thought. This article is about the continuing saga of the world’s first analog computer, the 2000 year-old Antikythera Mechanism, and of the scientists who are trying to unlock its secrets.
ANCIENT COMPUTER
PBS Airdate: April 3, 2013
TONY FREETH (Mathematician): If it hadn’t been discovered when it was, in 1901, no one would possibly believe that it could exist, because it’s so sophisticated.
ALEXANDER JONES (Historian of Ancient Astronomy): This mechanism would be remarkable, even if it was a less clever thing than it is.
NARRATOR: This is the story of one of the most extraordinary finds in history. This corroded bronze object is a machine that can look into the future. It was built 2,000 years ago, in ancient Greece.
YANIS BITSAKIS: Somebody, somewhere in ancient Greece, built an extraordinary machine that was actually a mechanical computer.
NARRATOR: A hundred years ago, a group of divers chanced upon a wreck, full of the largest horde of ancient Greek treasures ever found. Among the priceless ancient Greek bronze sculptures is another bronze object, no bigger than a modern laptop. It’s known as the Antikythera Mechanism.
As a team of scientists tries tries to unravel the secrets of the Antikythera Mechanism, we’re taken on a journey that charts the fall of one great ancient empire and the rise of another.
TONY FREETH: An ancient Greek scientist had done a truly remarkable thing. He’d found a way, using bronze gearwheels, to track the complex movements of the Moon and probably all the planets as well. It was a mechanism of truly staggering genius.
NARRATOR: This is the story of the world’s first computer.
You can read more here.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/ancient/ancient-computer.html
For the latest update of a forecast of the timing and amount of the coming cooling based on the natural quasi- millennial and 60 year natural cycles clearly present in the temperature data see the latest post at:
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
Here is a summary of the conclusions..
” After the publication of the AR5 WG1 draft I posted both a global and NH forecast on 10/9/13 based on using the both millennial and 60 year periodicities :
“In earlier posts on this site http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com at 4/02/13 and 1/22/13
I have combined the PDO, ,Millennial cycle and neutron trends to estimate the timing and extent of the coming cooling in both the Northern Hemisphere and Globally.
Here are the conclusions of those posts.
1/22/13 NH Forecast
1) The millennial peak is sharp – perhaps 18 years +/-. We have now had 16 years since 1997 with no net warming – and so might expect a sharp drop in a year or two – 2014/16 – with a net cooling by 2035 of about 0.35.Within that time frame however there could well be some exceptional years with NH temperatures +/- 0.25 degrees colder than that.
2) The cooling gradient might be fairly steep down to the Oort minimum equivalent which would occur about 2100. (about 1100 on Fig 5) ( Fig 3 here) with a total cooling in 2100 from the present estimated at about 1.2 +/-.
3) From 2100 on through the Wolf and Sporer minima equivalents with intervening highs to the Maunder Minimum equivalent which could occur from about 2600 – 2700 a further net cooling of about 0.7 degrees could occur for a total drop of 1.9 +/- degrees.
4) The time frame for the significant cooling in 2014 – 2016 is strengthened by recent developments already seen in solar activity. With a time lag of about 12 years between the solar driver proxy and climate we should see the effects of the sharp drop in the Ap Index which took place in 2004/5 in 2016-17.
4/02/13Global Forecast
1 Significant temperature drop at about 2016-17
2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021-22
3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024
4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 – 0.15
5 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 – 0.5
6 General Conclusion – by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed,
7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of another little ice age.
8 The effect of increasing CO2 emissions will be minor but beneficial – they may slightly ameliorate the forecast cooling and help maintain crop yields .
9 Warning !! There are some signs in the Livingston and Penn Solar data that a sudden drop to the Maunder Minimum Little Ice Age temperatures could be imminent – with a much more rapid and economically disruptive cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario.”
3.2 2014 Updates and Observations..
3.2.1 Updates
a) NH Forecast- item 4. With regard to timing, closer examination of the Ap Index (Fig13) and Neutron Count (Fig.14) would suggest that the sharpest drop in activity is better placed at 2005/6 with the associated sharp temperature drop now forecast at 2017-18.
b) Global Forecast – item1. Significant temperature drop now forecast for 2017-18.
c) Global Forecast – item 9. Another year of flat Livingston and Penn umbral data suggests that a swift decline into a Maunder Minimum is now very unlikely.”
Well, Dr. …That makes sense….
But does this..: “…Obama’s policies of CO2 reduction would exacerbate this problem and worsen the worldwide food shortages which might well occur if the cooling actually develops.
The main stream media are aiding and abetting this coup-in some cases , e.g. NBC, because they are controlled by a company – General Electric which has spent millions on lobbying in order to benefit from the bill or because of the political (Socialist – world government ) agenda of its leaders e.g . BBC.
It is essential that the grass roots of working middle America become informed about this looming threat and come together to speak out and stop this takeover by a kleptocratic and self appointed elite who plan to be the rulers of this Corporate Socialist state .”
Which specific advice do you mean Jaycee?
I’m pretty sure that Dr Marohasy has received lots of advice from lots of different places. . .apparently some people even managing to lose the whole cosmos while delivering advice?
The ‘advice’ she received from BoM via Simon Birmingham via Greg Hunt –
(? or perhaps vice versa ?)
was a classic example of appearing to answer specific questions while actually answering a different and very general question. . .that wasn’t asked 🙂
BTW?. . .it appears to me that you may have perhaps conflated the definitions of Auger and Augur?
It’s a good idea to write more letters that ask similar questions. . .Allan Taylor seems to have experienced the same type of response as Jen. . .and of course many others in the MDB re Federal water policy. . .which has been linked up via climate policy and climate research into Birmingham’s portfolio.
Excellent post Jen.
Questions for Simon B
In May this year, Sydney Obs had its warmest max mean temp on record, beating May 1958.
However ACORN (the new wonderful data base) shows May 1923 warmer than 1958.
This is because ACORN has adjusted the 1958 temps down and adjusted the 1923 temps up. Why were they adjusted?
May 2014 still holds the May record although none of the long-term stations reached Sydney Obs’ mean (even though their av temps are higher for May).
Thus, was Sydney Obs’ record ‘an outlier’ and will it be adjusted down in line with the lower temps of other Sydney stations?
Debbie August 20, 2014 at 1:40 pm #
“BTW?. . .it appears to me that you may have perhaps conflated the definitions of Auger and Augur?”
Agreed. JC has augered himself into a hole. And his propensity for murdering his mother tongue does not augur well for his prospects of augmenting his employment status this August.
I’d like to generalize the First Law of Holes: When you find yourself in a hole, either stop digging or stop augering. 🙂
Hi Jaycee,
“But does this..: “…Obama’s policies of CO2 reduction would exacerbate this problem and worsen the worldwide food shortages which might well occur if the cooling actually develops.etc, etc. ”
Makes perfect sense, if you know where your food comes from.
But, do you really believe the Mr Obama , is a great humanitarian who lies awake at night thinking of your welfare ?
Email to Senator Birmingham:
“Dear Senator Birmingham,
As minister for the Bureau of Meteorology I ask you to take a close interest in the activities of this important Government Agency. The BOM has the responsibility of maintaining climate records. It is critical to public decision making. both now and in the future, that those records are true and accurate.
Nothing should be adjusted or tampered with!
Let the BOM comment on the record if they think they must. They can even use adjusted records for particular purposes if that helps them, but the original records must be preserved intact and just as they were. The oldest records are just as important as contemporary ones. They should not be truncated. nor neglected nor lost.
As far as possible the original records should be in the public domain. I see no reason why all the records cannot be in the public domain and accessible for free.
The BOM appears to be an activist organisation in the Climate Change Debate. That is surely not an acceptable position for them to take. Please use your influence to require the BOM to act responsibly and the best interest of our country by maintain the best weather and climate records that they possibly can.
Yours Sincerely
Peter Champness “
This comment is not about cycles, per se, but about the deliberate hiding of past knowledge.
Prior to the emergence of Mann’s silly hockey stick paleoreconstruction of temperatures, informed people were quite aware that The Medieval Warm Period was followed by the Little Ice Age, which was followed by the modern warm period. After the hockey stick was born, the activists of the IPCC filled the following assessment report with it, ignoring well known history, pretending that the MWP and LIA never existed.
Peter & Don.
Those were definitely specific questions/issues that were not answered/addressed.
One aspect about “climate” that has bothered me ever since I started reading up on the entire climate change bar brawl, is that there is no definition of “climate” that is independent of weather. How for instance would we identify “climate change?” Well, the weather changed didn’t it? Even so-called paleoclimatological studies of “climate proxies” be they tree-ring studies, varve accumulations, or d-O18 measures, actual studies of phenomena that are dependent upon weather, not “climate.” Climate is a reification of our experience, a logical fallacy. Climate is a useful generalization for discussing very long term shifts in weather, like ice ages. It is useless at smaller time scales.
The irony is that at least humans claim that since humanity can influence “climate” through CO2, then we can engineer the harm away. None of those same folks would be likely to claim we could engineer weather though. There is no scientific definition of climate that does not assume the existence of climate to begin with, an affirmation of the consequent error.
John the definition that seems to be accepted is that climate is a 30 year period of weather. We’ve had 30 year periods of weather in OZ in the last century that were a bit warmer or cooler or wetter or drier.
For example if you chose to consider 1951 to 1980 as 30 years you would include two very wet periods in the 1950s and 1970s, but choosing 1921 to 1950 would mean you included some very dry low rainfall periods as well. Just two different climate periods?
‘How for instance would we identify “climate change?”
Its generally agreed that 30 years is climate, because we need a trend. But I think its feasible to argue that the plateau in world temperatures, commonly known as the hiatus, is a climate signal.
If Antarctica continues to cool and sea ice extent increases over a decade then that would be a reasonable indication of a trend. The Northern Hemisphere snow coverage is also showing an upward movement, so all these weather trends give us a glimpse of what is possibly coming.
Nothing is ever exactly the same, so kitchen table scientists spend their time looking for tipping points in weather events.
Scientists should be able to make more accurate predictions when they get a chance to factor into the models the importance of Sol and the gas giants.
Don B August 21, 2014 at 12:35 am #
“After the hockey stick was born, the activists of the IPCC filled the following assessment report with it, ignoring well known history, pretending that the MWP and LIA never existed.”
Don, you’ve hit the nail on the head. I never thought that I’d see the day when a LARGE MINORITY of scientists would act like ambulance chasers. Equally interesting is the fact that they don’t see anything wrong with it.
Hopefully it won’t be necessary to exhume the infamous Schneider quote from 1989. Then predictably, some Hockey Team member would play the Out-Of-Context card. Then I’d call his bluff. Then he’d do lots of huffing and puffing, to divert attention away from that fact that he just lost the argument. For me, it would not be sporting — or even entertaining — the second time around.
Expecting other scientists to do their homework, and to do the hard thinking that’s necessary to arrive at an informed opinion, is almost beside the point. Scientists tend to assume that most people in their Old Boy Network are trustworthy.
But even the American Chemical Society has gone over to the Dark Side. Apparently the ACS leadership feels that it’s their fiduciary responsibility to chemists in Academia, to keep the multi-billion-dollar, goobermint-funded AGW gravy train on track. Truth, schmooth.
John here is what the 2014 Royal Society, National Academy of Science report says about co2 levels IF WE stopped emissions entirely today. I’m not sure they’re correct but these long lag times do show up in ice core records. Here’s their quote—————-
” Even if emissions of greenhouse gases were to suddenly stop, Earth’s surface temperature would not cool and return to the level in the pre-industrial era for thousands of years.
fig9-smallFigure 9. If global emissions were to suddenly stop, it would take a long time for surface air temperatures and the ocean to begin to cool, because the excess CO2 in the atmosphere would remain there for a long time and would continue to exert a warming effect. Model projections show how atmospheric CO2 concentration (a), surface air temperature (b), and ocean thermal expansion (c) would respond following a scenario of business-as-usual emissions ceasing in 2300 (red), a scenario of aggressive emission reductions, falling close to zero 50 years from now (orange), and two intermediate emissions scenarios (green and blue). The small downward tick in temperature at 2300 is caused by the elimination of emissions of short-lived greenhouse gases, including methane. Source: Zickfeld et al., 2013 (larger version)
If emissions of CO2 stopped altogether, it would take many thousands of years for atmospheric CO2 to return to ‘pre-industrial’ levels due to its very slow transfer to the deep ocean and ultimate burial in ocean sediments. Surface temperatures would stay elevated for at least a thousand years, implying extremely long-term commitment to a warmer planet due to past and current emissions, and sea level would likely continue to rise for many centuries even after temperature stopped increasing (see Figure 9). Significant cooling would be required to reverse melting of glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet, which formed during past cold climates. The current CO2-induced warming of Earth is therefore essentially irreversible on human timescales. The amount and rate of further warming will depend almost entirely on how much more CO2 humankind emits” End of quote.
Here’s their full report. Here is their full report. https://royalsociety.org/policy/projects/climate-evidence-causes/question-20/
New study says Sol ‘influences climate regardless of extremes in weather’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2728814/Is-SUN-driving-climate-change-Solar-activity-not-just-humans-increasing-global-warming-study-claims.html#ixzz3B0Em108O
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Just posted this at Jo Nova’s blog.
#29
Neville
August 21, 2014 at 4:12 pm · Reply
This MacDonald et al study finds that higher insolation was one reason that forests grew up to the Arctic coastline from 10,000 to 3,000 years BP.
http://epic.awi.de/4164/1/Mac2000c.pdf
This happened across nth Russia and Siberia for at least 6,000 years and temps were up to 7C warmer than today in that area. It is far too cold for the forests to grow there today.
Norman Page
Your first link is to a page that suggests: “the past is the key to the future”, and also that models are no good.
But I think you need to be more specific. I agree that GCMs have not proven useful.
At the same time there is perhaps a place for statistical models that quantify the cycles in historical data.
Jennifer says we are ignoring evidence about the Jupiter, Saturn and some lunar effects that impact on our weather / climate. This can be short term and long term.
But what about the evidence from the ice cores. On pages 64 to 65 of “Cool It” Lomborg looks at the ice core evidence going back 650,000 years.
He says the evidence shows that temp is the driver over any period and co2 levels either rise or fall over periods from 200 to 6,000 years after temp. I’m well aware some sceptics are dubious about the ice core record and the lag times and Salby probably wouldn’t agree either.
Our Holocene temps are the lowest of any glacial for at least 400,000 years and yet we are bombarded by the MSM / activists and scientists telling us we are living in extreme times and our weather/ climate since 1950 is unusual and unprecedented.
This is nonsense because we know that SLs were much higher just 4,000 years ago due to much higher temps in the earlier Holocene optimum.
We also know that many recent SL studies show that there is nothing unusual at all about SLR after 1950.
But Lomborg shows the extreme co2 lag of 6,000 years after temps fell 118,000 years ago as the Eemian started it’s fall into the next glacial.
Over 10,000 years the temp dropped about 4C but co2 took another 6,000 years to respond. Until the still unreported RS and NAS report the general public knew little about these records at all.
‘Significant temperature drop now forecast for 2017-18 and a swift decline into a Maunder Minimum is now very unlikely.’
That’s a relief, but we should avoid falling into the trap of making predictions and then pushing the date back when things don’t transpire.
Personally I would like to see the tipping point before the next election, it would give us all the ammunition needed to win this war against mass delusion.
The Klimatariat says the plateau in temperatures may continue for another decade, because of natural variability, but then warming will take off like a rocket due to unnatural AGW. I wouldn’t put any money on that prediction.
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28870988
Neville
The ice core data shows a consequence, perhaps of the influence of the planets on climate.
Because I want to forecast, I’m most interested in the drivers (the planets), and a bit less interested in the consequences (the ice core record).
And thanks for all your contributions over a long period of time.
Jennifer I think the latest post at
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
is quite specific.
My main point is very simple i.e. that the 20th century warming is part of a natural solar 960 year cycle which is plainly visible in the temperature and other geological records. I show the evidence for that in Figs 5,6,7,8 and 9.
The current “pause” shows that we have just passed the peak and the neutron count and Ap index Figs13 and 14 confirm this as a good working hypothesis.
This 960 year periodicity was recently extended back to glacial times . See the link by Egg at 3:52.
This paper is dicussed at
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/08/new-paper-shows-solar-activity-is-linked-to-the-greenland-climate-even-20000-years-ago/
Scroll down there to Fig S4 – the top and bottom panels show good peaks at 480 years – These are actually half cycles of the 960 periodicity which I think is the key to forecasting.
Jennifer I understand you are looking for drivers and I’m sure you’re on fertile ground looking at the planets and sun etc. That’s probably where it all starts but what mechanism(s) follow to produce more or less clouds, increase or decrease in temps then droughts, floods, more/less extreme weather events, more /less ice extent etc etc? That’s the really hard part as you would know.
In the meantime I’ll just look at the evidence from the historical data to try and bring some balance to the so called CAGW debate.
‘That’s probably where it all starts but what mechanism(s) follow to produce more or less clouds,’
Neville I think Stephen Wilde is spot on.
‘Climate change is best represented by changes in the atmospheric circulation via changes in the latitudinal positions of the climate zones and the jet stream tracks threading between them.
‘Longer jet stream tracks occur with a more meridional air flow and produce increased global cloudiness which reduces solar energy into the oceans for a cooling system.
‘The basic energy content of the Earth system stays much the same if atmospheric mass, insolation and gravity remain the same but solar induced changes in global cloudiness will induce variations about the mean by mimicking the effect of changes in top of atmosphere insolation.’
For some reason people in the climate game on both sides of the argument have enormous difficulty in simply accepting the obvious. The best correlation between , climate and the sun is seen in the 10 Be data. Why not just accept that and make the most obvious working hypothesis that GCRs via clouds and natural aerosols are the principal driver certainly on multidecadal , centennial and millennial scales .
at
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
I say e.g.
“I would simply note here of the remarkable coincidence between the 970 year periodicity observed in the Holocene sunspot numbers in Fig 6a from Solanki et al. (2004) and the Miocene Lake series of Kern (Fig.6B ) and Scafetta’s 980 year periodicity derived from orbital calculations – Fig 7 and also the 950 – 1000 year +/- periodicity in Holocene temperatures noted by Humlum and seen in Fig 5 above.”
Also note the relation between CGRs and climate in Fig 10 C and D from Steinhilber.
Dr Page said previously there was little chance of a Maunder Minimum, but we are approaching a dip in temperatures.
Speaking for the average person it would be good if we could recognise signs on the ground to prove to the MSM that regional cooling has begun.
———–
‘The mercury is also set to fall well below the average for late summer and there is even the possibility of some frost on the ground during the week.
‘Calum Maccoll, another Met Office spokesman, said there is a “very autumnal” and “unseasonably cool” feel to the conditions in northern areas.
‘He said overnight temperatures in some areas of Scotland could fall close to zero later in the week, adding: “You could see… grass frost towards dawn.”
Daily Record
egg
Don’t hold your breath waiting for the true believers to discard their delusions.
I think the +/- 960 year cycle is the key to forecasting on time scales most interesting for civilization. Because of the number of variables and resonances involved both the timing and amplitude of individual peaks are likely to vary about some mean. I don’t think we will have anything that the establishment climate community and by derivation the faithful true believers of the MSM and the Greens would accept as “proof ” until we could run at least a 60 year centered moving average out to mid-century. The problem is that short term fluctuations are usually much larger than the 60 year trend i.e. we could still get temperatures higher than the 50 year moving average peak 100 years down the line
See the 50 year temperature moving average in Fig 9 at
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com.
cf the annual variation.
Having said that I do think that serious cracks will appear in the party line if there no warming but a noticeable cooling by 2020.
‘…a noticeable cooling by 2020.’
According to Archibald temperatures should have dropped by 1.5 C off New Hampshire by then.
‘I think the +/- 960 year cycle is the key to forecasting on time scales most interesting for civilization.’
I tend to agree, but I’ll do some further research to satisfy my own curiosity.
Ben Nevis Stuns Klimatariat
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/24/surpise-glaciers-appearing-in-scotland/
The 960 year cycle is clearly visible in Greenland.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V17/N35/C1.php