ONE swallow does not make a spring, and the coldest spring for more than 50 years does not disprove the theory of anthropogenic global warming.
***
Picture of a nesting box taken near Stratford-on-Avon yesterday.
Footer
About Me
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Read morePayPal
I’ve just posted the text of my most recent The Land column… more about barrages and Lake Alexandrina and some history at http://www.mythandthemurray.org/barrage-truths-kept-from-leaking-out/
Great piece in The Land,
Excellent to see the historical reports as well.
Good work Jen.
The coldest Spring in 50 years means the system is operating naturally.
Q&A was pretty interesting for a while last night. Bernadi actually acquitted himself quite well. McKibben was pretty rabid. I was annoyed Tony Jones didn’t let Cory rebut any points. The obvious difficulties and hypocrisies are obvious. No Neville I haven’t sold out. But there’s always something unsatisfying about these debates. Just when you’re on a science point and it might go somewhere they ask the musician for their opinion? Sheesh !
I hopped over to Nova’s for while to shoot a few fish in the barrel on woodies. Only one decent question in all that. You guys are actually more intelligent, but let’s not get all mushy now. En garde !
We are more intelligent than Nova’s mob, but they come up with some useful links.
Post normal science… Watts puts up a post on CFCs causing global warming and within a week it turned up in the Oz.
Lloyd wrote the story, obviously he’s into the 5th Estate.
Luke – Bernadi was spouting the same line Flannery was spouting 3 years ago – the same reply to no warming “Last decade was the hottest on record and all the heat is going into the oceans”
Yawn!
Same old claims about scientific consensus completely ignoring the latest paper from Oxford on 1.3C sensitivity and same old claims about man being responsible even though the UK Met Office has finally admitted temp increase since mid 19th century can be attributed to natural variation.
Why aren’t the journalists taking these charlatans to task?
I suppose he’s going to travel around oz telling everyone we have to drop fossil fuels and run on wind and solar! sheeeeesh!!!!
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/05/29/green-energy-unicorns/
Here’s another great post from Donna.
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/05/31/the-mouse-that-roared-starring-the-marshall-islands/
John _ I think you mean McKibben ! But maybe you’ve had too many coffees like me. It’s a good talking point I guess – hottest years – but no great increase. Heat into oceans – maybe but need to see more certainty. CFCs – interesting but need to see more analysis.
As for your Met Office claim how about a citation as I don’t know if it’s your interpretation, an op-ed quote, a kerb side quip, or a serious Met Office comment.
As for charlatans – well it all ain’t over by a long way yet. Our little human life span wiggle watching at annual to decadal scale is piffly in all this really.
Jumping on latest papers is a trap. Need to see these things play out. As if it was a latest paper in the opposite direction you’d deride it.
Hey John – what do you think of this very young Melbourne band http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPirCHFpbHg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCFWHdUaJKk better listened to first without video
Yes – sorry you are right – it was McKibben.
Here’s the Met Office link.
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/5/27/met-office-admits-claims-of-significant-temperature-rise-unt.html
She’s cute isn’t she – I preferred the first track – more honest IMHO.
Jeez you’re a sucker for denio-blogs John – did you check out Lucia ? Nah – just believe some stats hocus pocus and bullshit http://quantpalaeo.wordpress.com/2013/05/27/red-herrings-cats-and-pigeons-at-wuwt/
Tell me you understand ARIMA models? Try not jumping on every blog post with “THIS IS IT!” It rarely is.
And over at Watts – in the to and fro http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/31/the-met-office-responds-to-doug-keenans-statistical-significance-issue/
“Nick Stokes says:
May 31, 2013 at 1:32 pm
Stephen Rasey says: May 31, 2013 at 12:34 pm
“First off, Keenan’s model isn’t wrong because it leads to physically impossible scenarios and violates boundary conditions.”
Yes it is. A random walk is unbounded and has no fixed reference point. If it were to apply, at some stage (not too far away), all life would be extinguished (with probability 1). If it applied in the past, we would not be here. It is physically impossible because there is not the energy available for that unbounded behaviour.
“Second. Keenan’s model does NOT say “there IS NO Warming.” It only says that natural variability is such as it is that what appears to be a warming in the data could be statistical noise from a non-warming system.”
I haven’t seen any numbers that actually say that. Do you have any in mind?
But I wouldn’t be surprised. The model is a random walk with three (3) orders of autocorrelation. A highly autocorrelated random walk does proceed in near straight lines for quite some time. Steps are repeated with little change. The only really random choice is the initial direction. It’s not hard for it to emulate a trend.
“Fourth. Given the resources involved, how do you hold Keenan’s model to a higher standard than the MET’s or IPCC’s?”
Being physically possible is a pretty basic standard. The Met’s is, Keenan’s isn’t. That’s not applying a higher standard.”
OK John boy – up to defending or attacking here?
I also liked Dance Bear http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0qif8kSXeE&list=PLF2254E2EB6DA4762
Sure Luke – just read the comments on your link – even the statisticians can’t agree.
And even worse http://uknowispeaksense.wordpress.com/tag/douglas-keenan/
The point above John is that do you know your statistical models, including ARIMA and what statistical significance really means?
I know I don’t, never said I did – but I’m entitled to read the writings of those who claim to know and they appear to be in disagreement which happens so often in this GW story because so many people appear to have vested interests beyond the science.
Or be led around by bullshit arguments by the denialism industry ….. hmmmm. One might see if counter-arguments have been placed…. nah too much to ask.
A new book by Roger Underwood… about forestry management in Australia and origins in India during the middle years of the Raj. I’m hoping that if you click on this link you get the entire PDF with second page which includes an order form. Jen
http://jennifermarohasy.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Foresters-of-the-Raj-Flyer.pdf
http://uknowispeaksense.wordpress.com/tag/douglas-keenan/
Quote uknowispeakingnon-sense:
“That said, lets pretend for a moment you are right, are you suggesting that one paper negates all the findings of the other scientists who contribute to the IPCC report that the earth is warming?
A finding that is backed up now by satellite data and other lines of evidence?” (Provides NO evidence)
.
Amongst many facts speakingnonsense is obviously NOT aware of, here is Albert Einstein’s response to the 1931 pamphlet “100 authors against Einstein,” commissioned by the German Nazi Party as a clumsy contradiction to the Relativity Theory, said, “If I were wrong, then one would have been enough.
speakingnonsense’s website is a complete example of “thou shall not commit logical fallacies”
https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/home
.
Anyone who would link to uknowispeaknon-sense sub-science website is a failure.
I didn’t notice this open thread earlier, but I just thought I’d agree with Luke re McKibben on Q+A. It annoys the heck out of me that people like him are presented as experts in the field representing the consensus when they are really more activist than scientist. And then there’s the uncritical acceptance of anything they say. Bernadi did a fair job of sticking to his guns, but he doesn’t have the in-depth knowledge to tackle the McKibbens of this world.
Given the panel can be of diverse backgrounds, why not throw Jen or Jo Nova on there instead of Martha Wainwright?
PS I’m off to The Playhouse in Canberra on 17 June with a greeny friend to hear Tim Flannery speak. My mate thinks Flannery’s near to God and reckons this will help me see the error of my denialist ways.
Doubt it.
Graeme,
Tim is an excellent speaker, very, very clever with persuasive language and is also a generally nice bloke to be around.
But then.. . so are heaps of other people.
It would be interesting to hear if he resorts to name calling and put downs. (eg denialist and terms like ‘big oil’ and ‘big tobacco’)
His tendency towards making rather unsubstantiated predictions in the media and his tendency towards misanthropy has left him in a bit of a conundrum. 🙂 🙂
He has turned into what Luke once coined an AGW celeb.
‘Jumping on latest papers is a trap. Need to see these things play out.’
Yeah, but we can seek out the null hypothesis as a starter and may I suggest, ever so humbly, the use of intuitive intellect to see where its all heading.
And just for the record, I’ve always appreciated your input Luke and its good to see you debating at the finale. Within a year or more I will be arguing with the sceptics here over the impending mini ice age … the irony burns.
Cane toads perish in western Sydney.
How can the UK energy minister be so stupid? Fair dinkum do these fools really believe the nonsense they sprout or is this really some sort of sick game?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/05/an-open-letter-to-ed-davey/#comments
Good post from Joe D’Aleo at WUWT listing 25 reasons why CAGW is just so much silly nonsense.
But also unfortunately super expensive silly nonsense.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/05/global-warming-theory-has-failed-all-tests-so-alarmists-return-to-the-97-consensus-hoax/#more-87701
Michael Chrichton’s quote at the end is a beauty. But I suppose the fools are reluctantly, slowly coming around.
Even Karoly etc have reduced their warming hype to about 2C by 2100. Just give these fools another decade and they’ll probably drop another degree C off their sinking ship.
Just a pity we’ve wasted so many billions $ here in OZ for a guaranteed zero return.
Pity your reference has got multiple errors eh? Stupid is as stupid does.
Nothing has changed except deniers talking up the volume. Wish on.
Pity Luke doesn’t show us these multiple errors. Here’s Spencer and Christy showing us the hopeless failure of the models, rather supporting some of Joe’s points.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/epic-fail-73-climate-models-vs-observations-for-tropical-tropospheric-temperature/#comments
But if the models are this far out at this very early stage what will they be like by 2030 or 2050 or 2100?
Remember when Brown, Milne , Wong and other fools praised Spain’s mad deep green rush to renewables and sustainability?????
Now Spain has youth unemployment of 56% not far behind Greece at 62.5%. What a failure to these nations young people, who are the best educated youngsters of all time.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/350182/asking-trouble-andrew-stuttaford
In OZ we too have the madness of renewables and sustainability????? funding and now this ridiculous, super expensive Gonski rubbish.
At least Germany is slowly waking up and building a number of brown coal power stations, so why doesn’t Australia?
“Australian drought was forecast to become permanent’ WRONG ! forecast to be?
“Extremes of rainfall and drought were predicted to increase” well gee – are we there yet
” Alarmists had predicted permanent El Nino” bullshit
“It is now not warming.” – cherrypicked bullshit – according to Lucia it statistically is
“Station dropout, missing data, change of local siting, urbanization, instrumentation contaminate the record,” bullshit – Watts own paper – makes no difference to the big picture story
” Sea level rise was to accelerate upward due to melting ice and warming. Sea levels actually slowed in the late 20th century and have declined or flattened the last few years. ” of for trucks sake – anyone ever seen the multidecadal wobbles in long term sea level data – the last few years – hahahahahaha
“Ocean heat content was forecast to increase ” let’s leave out half the story
“Alarmists predicted an increase in hurricane frequency” WRONG !
Faux sceptic crappola. Pseudo sceptics recycling their vomit.
Neville tries to peddle right wing talking points “oooo oooo we’ll be as bad as Greece and Spain” Mate you’ve never had it so good ya great big sooky whinger.
Do you get your script from Andrew Bolt’s waste paper basket?
Real reasons for Spain – work choices temp contracts and the end of a construction bubble – but macroeconomist Nevvy reckons it’s someone’s windmill. Pullease.
Geezzzz Luke who is doing the cherry picking? Just about every alarmist on the planet from Obama, Mayor of New York, Gore, Flannery, McKibben, Williams, science guy, etc, etc, have told us that CAGW will lead to more extreme weather events or haven’t you noticed?
Don’t forget that Hansen from NASA Giss and Pearman from the CSIRO both helped Gore with his AIT sci-fi movie.
Our chief climate commissioner certainly did say that we wouldn’t get enough rain to fill our dams or didn’t you hear him?
Bolt also tackled the alarmist nonsense recently and like D’Aleo has nailed it as well.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/signs-that-warming-scare-is-all-hot-air/story-e6frfhqf-1226640600205
But the extreme SLR scare by Hansen/ Gore, Flannery, Obama, Nye, McKibben, Williams is just so ridiculous that it makes a mockery of the positions that some of these fools hold.
If you think that an increase of 0.8C since the end of the LIA is Stat Significant then that’s your problem . That slight warming over the last 163 years may contain some AGW since 1960, but it would have to be a small component of that 0.8c.
BTW even Pachauri, Hansen, IPCC and even the Met have agreed that warming has paused for the last 15 years. Actually Pachy told the OZ that it was 17 years.
But have another look at Christy’s GCM graphs and then tell us why you’d believe anything these alarmists say.
From Forbes:
‘While research director Gabriel Calzada Alvarez didn’t fundamentally object to wind power, he did find that when a government artificially props up the industry with subsidies, higher electrical costs (31%) and tax hikes (5%), along with government debt follow. Each of those jobs was estimated to cost $800,000 per year to create, and 90% of those were temporary. A few months after the study was released, researchers at the Danish Center for Politiske Studier reached similar conclusions based upon their country’s experience: “It is fair to assess that no wind energy would exist if it had to compete on market terms.”’
Goes on to mention the 4-5 jobs killed by every green job. Don’t know how much of a factoid that is, but I’m guessing there’s some truth in it. What this article does not mention is wind envy. Situating wind is not like situating nukes and fossil fuel. You spread it out to buggery, and have to pay massively for co-operation. When I was in Spain wind turbines were controversial not for their siting and health effects, but for the enormous amounts of money tipped into the laps of those individuals and communities who host the turbines. Mind you, if you can’t afford to keep these new aristos in the manner to which they are accustomed…
But Luke is right about a building bubble in Spain. I walked through a brand new ghost town in the Rioja which had every conceivable facility. One of two cars were parked, but not a single resident was in sight. However, to separate the building bubble from the wind bubble is a mistake. Green waste comes in a package with many other forms of waste. The same people who wasted millions saving Solyndra for a few days are happy to waste billions saving Chrysler for a few years.
I’m not a libertarian or even a dry rationalist about these things (especially since the Posh Left has discovered The Market as its favourite Big Lever). My problem is not with stimulus, saving iffy businesses or funding crazy experiments with government money. You might get lucky there. Back a few long shots, by all means. Err on the side of generosity (albeit with Other People’s Money). I can live with the odd long shot. But why do our crappy New Class governments have to back the scratchings? Even the worst pub bookie won’t take a bet on a scratching.
Robert simple maths shows us that mitigation to some how improve future climate prospects just doesn’t work.
Even Flannery admitted this to Bolt when he was put under enough pressure. So why should govt waste billions $ of taxpayers money for a zero return?
Alternatively if some money is invested in adaptation and more R&D we will get a much better return in the long run.
BTW here’s the Bolter’s pages on AGW dud predictions. Unbelievable stuff.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/C883
Neville – might be infotainment but I don’t think serious climate policy is influenced by what Flannery or Williams say. It all plays out over much longer time periods.
An example – dams haven’t been built in Qld coz Flannery said it would never rain again – bullshit. Dams are 10 years planning horizon stuff. Dams indeed have been built. Panic did ensue over the Millennium Drought but who predicted its beginning and end? hmmmm Real engineers are there trying to actually keep things going in the midst of all this.
Drive by shootings and door stop interviews and op-eds aren’t policy. Half of it is theatre.
It’s all just bunkum misrepresentation by Diddlio !
Luke you may be right about some or much of what you say, but I am not privy to policy decisions by governments. Nonetheless, it’s not obvious to me that by and large our governments are always guided by good sense, economic/fiscal responsibility or even deep seated integrity.
It seems to me that many decisions and policy are based on far less tangible evidence. And regardless of your protestations, the truth is that the general public have been treated to a constant barrage of alarming predictions about the impact of AGW. The average person I speak to, especially kids, is pretty much convinced it’s happening.
Whenever there’s a bad storm or a flood or similar, the outrage from the Bill McKibbens of this world rings out in any newspaper or news channel you care to mention.
If you don’t think that sort of public sentiment is affecting policy, I think you’d be mistaken.
Dam building is done by very conservative dam engineers undertaking vast amounts of process.
The daily public are also bombarded with vast amounts of scepticism and denial also. So much so that it has stalled the debate. Now impossible to separate wood for trees. Fact from fiction.
Luke I agree that these fools sprout a lot of nonsense. So why does the MSM quote them so often and even give Flannery his own TV show on the taxpayer funded ABC with follow up repeats?
But when the US president or Mayor of NY or house leader Barbara Boxer or Bob Brown or Flannery or Williams or Hansen or Gore etc say the most ridiculous things why don’t we see more sensible people of the left condemning them for their stupidity.
Why is this do you think? If these people really believe their rubbish we have to admit that these prominent nongs are just stupid clowns.
But then again Ehrlich has dined out on his rubbish for nearly half a century and still doesn’t get any useful criticism from the left of centre.
Sceptics have provided a free service trying to stop these fraudsters from wasting any more money on useless schemes to “stop global warming”.
If it wasn’t so serious and so easily understood we could all have a really good giggle at their stupidity.
But I don’t think anyone really feels like laughing now.
‘In an interview with Guardian Australia, Milne said the Liberal leader’s personal politics were threatening the planet. “Tony Abbott has been so irresponsible in terms of addressing global warming,” she said. “He has chosen to jeopardise the future of children, of generations henceforth, of species, by putting his own political perspective ahead of actually addressing global warming.
“I would argue nobody is fit for leadership if they choose to politically exploit an issue which jeopardises the wellbeing of the whole community and the environment into the future,” she added. “That is something for which they have to take personal responsibility.”
‘The Greens will appeal to voters to deliver them the balance of power in the Senate as a check on an Abbott government.’
Lenore Taylor in the Guardian
‘Panic did ensue over the Millennium Drought but who predicted its beginning and end?’
Me, over at Deltoid, around three months before it came to an end… simply on the basis that La Nina was approaching.
Yes but we all knew that. Want to influence water security policy tell me 2 years beforehand.
Luke: “The daily public are also bombarded with vast amounts of scepticism and denial also. So much so that it has stalled the debate.”
Do you really think so? In my own wanderings I find very few who are across the sceptic views. There are certainly those who parrot some barely grasped sceptical talking points, but on the whole most have bought the idea that C02 drives global warming. The public at large is not the sharpest tool around and they are driven by immediate concerns. So it’s pretty easy to raise the alarm if we have a few floods or a big storm or a drought.
Where the sceptics seem to me to be gaining traction is more within the science debate itself. Aided and abetted by the stubborn resistance of the world to actually behave as projected. Sure it’s only been a few decades, but already we are tracking at the bottom of IPCC and Hansen’s projections. Not confidence inspiring for the darker version of the science.
This past year has seen some real shifts in the debate. Some of the heavy hitters are ameliorating their stances and there are more and more papers proposing less dire outlooks (eg pulling climate sensitivity back to something more reflective of the facts).
But the public? And public policy? Still very much influenced by alarmist philosophy. Especially with kids. And that’s always been my beef. The general misinformation that has convinced a whole generation that we once lived in some sort of stable benign environment and every natural disaster today can be laid at the feet of CO2.
I suppose we shouldn’t expect Luke or others to fight fairly , but he’s wrong. Years ago when I first came to this blog I wrote about the PDO and the higher rainfall OZ experienced in the MDB during the 50s and 70s.
I claimed then that one day the PDO would change back to a cool phase and we would receive more rainfall again.
Today we now understand that the IOD warm and cool phase makes a difference over SE OZ as well.
But how have we lost our common sense and abandoned simple logic and reason when we try to understand weather and climate?
Why does our MSM promote and encourage these fraudsters so blatantly? How can some of the most ourageous claims by these people ( many leaders in our communities and parliaments) be taken seriously?
I certainly understand that most of our journos are not very intelligent and are just groupthink lemmings, but why is there such an abundance of these unreasoning fools?
More depressing evidence of this madness from the Bolter this morning.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/a_global_warming_sermon_from_a_uniting_church_pulpit_amen_says_the_abc/
Yes Graeme, it’s breathtaking how an alarmist like McKibben can get so much airtime with no one to ask him a serious question.
Luke, what do you think of the physics in Lu’s paper attributing warming to CFCs?
For those who prefer it here’s Christy and Spencer’s latest post and graphs with the spaghetti added.
Plus the linear trend graphs again as well.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/06/climate-modeling-epic-fail-spencer-the-day-of-reckoning-has-arrived/#more-87735
This is damning evidence but rest assured the ABC and MSM will avoid it like the plague.
Here’s Bob Tisdale’s graphs on models versus observations.
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/04/20/model-data-comparison-with-trend-maps-cmip5-ipcc-ar5-models-vs-new-giss-land-ocean-temperature-index/
“I suppose we shouldn’t expect Luke or others to fight fairly , but he’s wrong. Years ago when I first came to this blog I wrote about the PDO and the higher rainfall OZ experienced in the MDB during the 50s and 70s.”
Neville – we all know that. Sheesh ! Rainfall stats 101. The water industry knows that – tell us something we don’t know. Tell us about the predictability of the PDO (it isn’t!). We’ve only been into the PDO/IPO for about 15 years mate! It’s not like sceptics invented the concept you know.
Tell us years ahead when a multi-decadal drought will start and end. Seasonal La Nina forecasts don’t count.
Spanglers – on the CFC paper – whoopsy – http://rabett.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/elis-not-fond-of-lu.html http://rabett.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/thick-line-lu.html that’s why jumping on new papers and screaming “this is it” is somewhat dangerous.
Luke, I would have liked your own thoughts. Expecting anything deep and meaningful out of a trivialising, biased rabbit is a long shot.
The simple known physics of a recent past depleted ozone layer that protected us from UV which is now possibly recovering somewhat, the Cosmic Ray theory that causes cloud seeding which both reflects and traps UV [less CRs cause more warming and vice versa] were things that I thought all climate scientists agreed on.
The fact that this CFC theory reflects the current and past situations better than the CO2 theory, while embarrassing for some, makes more sense.
Geeezzzzzz Luke can you name anyone on the planet who can tell us when the next PDO change will be? While you’re at it name anyone who can tell us when the next bad drought will start and finish?
Spanglers I confess I hadn’t had time to yet read and digest in full – but merely to note Eli had found some issues of note.
Neville – yes well exactly – so we know Stray-ya can endure multi-year droughts. We don’t have any serious long lead forecast technology – apart from seasonal in a particular year. SO if you found yourself managing water resources in a 10 year dry sequence – what do you think you’d be thinking at about year 6-7 – what is happening? What can I do? Do I just bet it will rain sometime. What if a major city might run out of water. Ponder and simulate the engineer’s plight.
Well Luke I’m glad you agree and can display common sense at times.
Bolt covered your question years ago mid last big drought and begged the stupid Labor govt in Vic to build a dam on the Mitchell river for tiddlywinks. Now a national park I think.
But the dopes just went ahead and built a monster, super expensive desal plant for at least 5 times the price and a third the water delivery.
The Mitchell flooded at least twice before the drought finally broke and washed bridges etc away during those floods, what a waste.
Here’s some more news from the weather isn’t climate sector.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/britons_would_pray_for_global_warming/#commentsmore
Melbourne has just had the wettest start to winter for 150 years. Britons have just endured the coldest spring for 50 years after an extremely cold winter etc.
Ditto much of the northern Hemisphere.
I think this quote from Spencer/ Christy should be prominent in any assessment of the climate debate since 1979.
“It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the coming years. I frankly don’t see how the IPCC can keep claiming that the models are “not inconsistent with” the observations. Any sane person can see otherwise.
If the observations in the above graph were on the UPPER (warm) side of the models, do you really believe the modelers would not be falling all over themselves to see how much additional surface warming they could get their models to produce?”
What an insane farce and mitigation fraud we have had to endure for the last 34 years. How much longer before the MSM and govts all over the world start to wake up?
71% of the fund set up to help developing countries cope with climate change has been wasted on mitigation.
More billions flushed straight down the plug hole for a zero return and zip change to the climate and temp.
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/06/climate-aid-the-39-bn-industry-mostly-used-to-slow-developing-countries/#more-28820
Speaking of Jo Nova, what’s the opinion about the Ian Wilson paper?
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/06/can-the-moon-change-our-climate-can-tides-in-the-atmosphere-solve-the-mystery-of-enso/
Graeme I don’t think any serious person would doubt that the moon has some impact on climate. But by how much is beyond my understanding.
Here’s more of the mitigation fraud relating to a precipitation rich country and silly religious fundamentalists.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/07/is-fighting-global-warming-the-solution-to-water-shortages-in-malawi-or-elsewhere/#more-87789
Zip change in rainfall since 1900 but these stupid fools still want to propose a mediation fix that won’t change a thing, but will waste valuable time and money.
Neville – back on water supply – your response is typical bigoted denier speak. It’s always what you leave out.
You left out – the SEQ water grid so water can now be moved around between systems, waste water recycling plant at Bundamba that can be brought into service if needed, new Wyaralong Dam on Teviot Brook, raised height on Russ Hinze Dam, large campaign on water efficiency and rain water tanks. Water pipeline to Nanango and Tarong Power Station.
Water pipeline from Wivenhoe to Toowoomba’s Cressbrook Dam for drought security.
http://www.linkwater.com.au/media/docs/LinkWater_Assets_Map.pdf
How come you never mention these?
You have confessed you don’t know when mega-droughts start of finish.
Tugun was poorly done but very very handy on producing clear water when the now degraded Lockyer catchment inundates Mt Crosby treatment works with muddy water.
You really are just a ranter – you never cover the issue seriously.
Imagine if Neville was in charge of SEQ water security – instead of doing something he’d be ranting about windmills and Spain.
Graeme M – Wilson’s paper is interesting and very complex. But beware the ides of cycles – there’s so much quasi-periodic occurring in our climate – ENSO, PDO, AMO, IOD, SAM etc that you can find cycles where there aren’t any. There’s a school of thought that what causes ENSO is a chicken/egg type question and that ENSO is an “emergent” property of the climate system.
However that being said a catalyst for Ian Wilson’s work (which he acknowledges) was from Norm Treloar from “the climate establishment” – on luni-solar cycles.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.783/pdf
However Norm did believe in greenhouse warming. Interestingly his thoughts on global temperature was that luni-solar cycles affecting ocean processes would now dampen out the temperature rise for a decade or two before it resumed its upwards climb. (Don’t tell Neville!)
Jo Nova talking about Wilson’s system predicting an El Nino in 2018/19 – but gee you or I could do that by chance alone. Need a much bigger set of data to prove he has forecast skill.
It’s a pity he hasn’t done hindcast experiments to show he has something. A prediction on one throw of the dice means little – you or I could come up with a system based on tea leaves and simply fluke it. Then we’d be legends until we flunked the next 5 in a row.
Me – I’m at “nothing works” and “it’s never as simple as it seems”.
Luke you really are a fantasist. Look I’m in favour of recycling water, lifting dam walls or whtever.
But I also want to build new dams and not waste endless billions on stupid desal plants .
Once again I admit I’m not god and don’t know when the next drought will start and finish. Silly me, I’ll just have to try harder. GGeeezzzzz give me strength.
Tell me do you actually think before writing some of your silly nonsense?
“Me – I’m at “nothing works” and “it’s never as simple as it seems”.”
If you’re speaking from wisdom and the ability of judges to bankrupt a marriage partner, how about:
“gay community arguing for marriage rights is like a cyclist asking for the right to be issued with a parking ticket.”
Neville – OK so you don’t know about about water management except building friggin big dams. Well where in SEQ would you like to build one Neville. There’s a few already. I’m sure the citizens of SEQ would love to be covered in a massive Neville Lake(s).
“Look I’m in favour of recycling water,” many aren’t !
And yes you do need to try harder – if you can’t make a sensible contribution to water management STFU and let the pros do it. You have no understanding of decadal droughts except they can happen so why don’t you stop pretending you know what to do. You don’t – if you were in charge managing water security in a bad one you’d just piss your pants. Maybe we could recycle that.
I think you really are utterly utterly stupid Neville – a mindless parrot who doesn’t understand anything except Watts and Bolt disfinformation rat dirt. You are a nitwit ! You are uninformed, have no science, no experience in managing anything, have never had to make a serious decision on anything technical in your life. A big whingy armchair sook.
Luke I’ve run my own small business for nearly half a century and never had a cent of govt money to help me in any way.
I’ve employed many people over the years and always tried to do the right thing by them despite the ups and downs of the usual business cycles.
At the age of 37 I suffered a stroke and had to learn to use my right side again. I wouldn’t wish it on my worst enemy I can assure you.
Believe me I certainly know my limitations and my keyboard skills are hopelessly slow and pathetic to watch to put it mildly.
Sure I have a very limited education but I love to read and have a dead set hate of govt waste and stupidity.
Once again I’ll repeat, I just couldn’t care less what you think of me because it’s not important.
Luke, Neville’s philosophy on dams is the right one.
You green lefty sympathisers have always managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with every wonderful opportunity for dams in SEQ starting with your mates, yesterday’s men, Kevin ’07 and Peter Beattie.
You only get one chance with each water catchment and your lot blew it every time.
What they did instead, at twice the price, is tokenistic crap.
SEQ will never recoup those losses, in money terms, missed infrastructure possibilities or long term water efficiency.
Good on you Neville.
I’ve always found it very interesting that people who don’t have an entitlement mentality are always the best guardian of public funds.
So why do you think it is that Labor can turn a 100bil surplus into a 200bil deficit during a period of record income?
And stuff everything up doing it?
Neville – I apologise if you think I’ve over personalised into your private life and hope your health keeps well. However in the regional complexity of making major decisions about the drinking water for a whole region involving millions of people you have zero experience.
Running your own little business is incomparable – why coz you’re calling the shots. No constituents. No departments. No corporate contractors. No interest groups. No cabinet colleagues.
the REALITY is that Labor has made a major contribution to new infrastructure in SEQ INCLUDING A MAJOR NEW DAM. That infrastructure will place the region well for future droughts. Libs didn’t build it ! Actually Libs don’t believe in infrastructure do they?
You NEVER discuss that? WHY? Coz you’re a rusted on blue rightist.
Spanglers bullshits on but has no clue about dam building politics. So Spanglers nobody wants 20m of water over their heads. Objections to SEQ dam building are locals. It’s not a Franklin-Gordon setup. WATER EFFICIENCY is also not letting vast amounts evaporate from shallow storages.
“You only get one chance with each water catchment and your lot blew it every time.” oh what utter crap. Do wank on.
Spanglers you’ve never had it so good economically. Stop sooking and grow up. The lights were on and shops open last time I looked. No riots in the street. Plenty of people at the footy and races.
Manage this armchair devotees and know alls….
an example of SEQ dam politics
On 4 July 2006, the Queensland Government decided against the construction of a Logan River dam at Tilley’s Bridge in Rathdowney, due to mounting public pressure and high road diversion costs. Instead, the Wyaralong Dam was proposed on Teviot Brook near Boonah, which will inundate 15 properties instead of the 100 for the Tilley’s Bridge site.
The Tilley’s Bridge dam, if it had been approved, would have inundated the area of land between Tilley’s Bridge, just to the south of Rathdowney, and Bigriggan Camping Reserve, some 8 km west, covering a significant section of the Boonah-Rathdowney Road.
http://lyndiesplace.tripod.com/
Spangled I’m not sure how they do it, they just seem to have a natural talent for over spending, colossal waste and wrecking everything.
When you understand that Howard had to start with a 98 bn dollar deficit in 1996 it is remarkable he and Costello left a legacy of a healthy surplus and 60+ bn in the Australia fund when they were booted out in 2007.
I’ll never understand the OZ electorate and their misunderstanding of a narcississtic fool like Rudd.
I’m convinced he is as big a fool as Gillard and boy that’s saying something.
Luke – yes there’s always someone with a penchant for cycles with some new insight. But from my brief overview of the paper it seems to have some meat. I thought the comment at Nova’s from the guy who has mapped rainfall patterns at Wagga was interesting. He claims an 18 year cycle of heavy rainfall periods – that is, every 18 or so years there is a very wet year or two. In thinking about rainfall in SE Qld there seems to be a similar cycle (although there I am just going from memory).
““You only get one chance with each water catchment and your lot blew it every time.” oh what utter crap. Do wank on.”
You’re the wanker, Luke.
You think there will ever be a dam on the Albert R? Right in the centre of the SEQ population? That was all systems go until Kevin used it as a political tool to destroy it?
Population growth in this area is so fast and dam building is so slow that you only get one chance.
Imagine the Gold Coast without the Hinze. If the people of that era [only a few short decades ago] hadn’t had the resolution and foresight to get on and do it, it could not have been done a change of govt later.
Wyaralong is a pretty, but tokenistic little dam. And very expensive.
But at least it isn’t as big a white elephant as the Tugun desal which will rust away long before it earns its keep.
$2 million a DAY! for the pleasure? WHOOEE!
That’s the difference between people like you and people like Neville. My old man got to be Chief Engineer in the Main Roads Dept and he worried himself into an early grave over getting the last drop of value out of the public purse back in the days when everything was govt day labour, not contract, yet their economy v results would make modern govt depts look like novices.
Well you’re tugging hard yourself Spangles – I guess you’d prefer water over your head than people. And I thought you lot were into property rights – I guess not.
Your old man lived in a simpler world and you’re not him are you? Who gives a toss what he did. Relevance = 0.0 Hey was your Dad in charge when Hinze was there. If so – hahahahahaha
Hilariously for clowns like yourselves it was Hinze who zoned Wolfdene rural residential. Libs and Labor were both against the dam. Nats wanted it – now I wonder why it was zoned the way it was. hmmmm. And I wonder the Nats got kicked out …. hmmmmm something the nature of the government perhaps?
The residents didn’t want it. Nothing to do with greens. And it was an inefficient storage.
But boofheads like you lot wouldn’t know about efficiency.
You now have a flexible interlinked water grid and diverse options. And “no infrastructure” Tories didn’t build it !
Don’t kid yourself you understand the chicanery that went on behind the scenes. Even many of the local Nats didn’t want it because they owned all the subdividable land in the catchment. Rudd told Goss he could win Beaudesert by cancelling Wolfdene. Well, he won power but not Beaudesert but he had to scrub the dam which had been approved and even partly resumed.
Goss made a lot of his enemies very rich over that move. A win/win for them and a win/lose/lose for Goss.
Fortunately the Nats had the foresight to build dams in many parts of Q over their time in power which have vastly improved the country.
The point I make about my old man is that he and others like him treated taxpayer funds with respect. And for the record, he was pre-Hinze.
They didn’t rush around building white elephants that cost 2 million a day just in interest, on the say-so of timwits, without a CBA, that will mostly never be used.
But hey! we’d probably never have got an NBN if Rudd hadn’t done something this stupid to cut his teeth on.
And even boofheads like you can appreciate that sort of “efficiency.”
Spangled I remember a while back Luke and Gav thought the NBN was a wonderful idea. As time goes by this Rudd / Conroy stupidity almost defies belief.
The SA govt had expected that 10% would be signed up by end of this month. Alas only 0.23% will be signed up or 1/43 of that estimate.
At this rate they won’t sign up 10% until 2020. What a shocking waste of taxpayers money and all drawn up on a plane on the back of an envelope.
Real visionary??? stupidity once again by Labor and of course no CBA. Who knows what the final cost will be if this clueless Gillard govt was returned after september.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/nbn_spending_billions_on_waiting_for_godot/#commentsmore
Yes Neville, if people like Luke who voted for this bunch had any decency they’d be too ashamed to speak to us scepticals for at least another govt term.
He’s worse than Annastacia Palaszczuk, Qld state opposition leader.
Just when you think you’ve seen the worst along comes this load of nonsense that is truly frightening.
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/6/6/marshalling-the-most-bizarre-arguments.html#comments
This fool is the president of the American Meteorlogical Society and has worked at NASA GISS as a climate scientist.
He calls us climate zombies, yet apparently he can’t even understand simple maths. How can such a fool be allowed to pedal this idiotic rubbish?
He’s either a liar or a fool, take your pick.
Looks like Spangled might have had some inside interest to buy some of that inflated Wolfdene land – the old whiteshoe brigade in action ! Had a little earner going do we?
“he and others like him treated taxpayer funds with respect” ho ho ho – did Daddy tell you that – did he look straight in the eye and tell you that – hahahahahahaha – I just got a stitch laughing.
So he’s be responsible for the disgraceful road toll then – when the road stats were through the roof? All those crap roads around Qld? Thanks Dad !
The later it is, the stupider Luke’s remarks. Wolfdene land was in limbo during all that time.
And my father never discussed public funds but his attitude was expressed in how he applied himself.
Starting from virtually nothing and building highways before the age of machinery with men dangling over cliffs on ropes, drilling into solid rock with hand-held star-drills being hand-hammered into that rock, gives you an understanding how hard road building was. A lot of the Cook Hwy was built during the depression this way and provisioned by coastal schooners.
He finished up on the Wilbur Smith plan in Brisbane and had to study a lot in the US to implement that.
So yes, you could say those early engineers who had to stretch budgets to the limit to build beef roads, highways and the beginnings of freeways in the ’50s were responsible for road deaths from the explosion in population that followed.
But only if you were, like Luke, somewhat faulty in your logic.
The Swan/Gillard/Labor budget has been blown out of the water in just 3 weeks.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/swans_budget_blown_just_one_month_later/#commentsmore
Swan’s head of treasury now admits that they knew well before budget night that this would be the case but chose to ignore it.
Amazing if you or I were selling an item a month ago for $100 and yet we knew its true value was only $70 we would be seen as dishonest.
Perhaps not a good analogy but why is this deceptive sale of the OZ budget any different? Afterall we have the head of Swan’s department admitting this deception under oath.
Just when you thought the world couldn’t get any madder along comes this gem.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/31/130-mph-biocoal-steam-engines-another-high-speed-rail-boondoggle/
Looks like Mann and Shepherd are just the normal run of the mill cowards. Surprise, surprise.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/08/the-tolerant-left-these-are-not-the-questions-we-are-looking-for/#more-87827
I mean if they had any strength of argument they would debate Bishop Hill and make a fool of them wouldn’t they? Fat chance and the cowards know it.
Neville, equating the burning of charcoal in high speed steam as “carbon neutral” really takes the cake.
This logic is, if possible, faultier than Luke’s.
And here’s another load of crap that everyone’s falling for:
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/canary-isle-shows-climate-change-is-real-20130603-2nm5r.html
The big world problem is over population but the anti-carbon schemes do not address that and in fact make it worse.
Spanglers I’m just putting shit on your for some education. I’m sure your Dad was a stirling chap and an engineering legend.
However – back in the day also had stacks of corrupt activity too – always seemingly glossed over.
And what makes you think that modern day public servants don’t take their work seriously and expedite with efficiency.
You Dad lived in a simpler less crowded world with much less plurality in an uninformed electorate without modern media.
I’m amused at your assumptions of Flannery influencing water policy when the reality is years of planning and studies. However all decisions go into a complex options mix of competing forces. Do you think Flannery rang up Anna Bligh with a few ideas one night?
Welcome to the new world. It ain’t the 1950s anymore and no amount of whinging will bring it back.
Listen to Neville sook “I mean if they had any strength of argument they would debate Bishop Hill and make a fool of them wouldn’t they”
Well if sceptics weren’t cowards Neville they’d pool their talents and publish. But the cowards won’t do it? Coz the cowards are clueless and fighting among themselves e.g. slayers versus Spencer & Watts. Why are they cowards do you think Neville – are they (a) stupid (b) idiots (c) clueless or (d) have no idea?
Maybe Neville might read a slayer article and get really angry and join the slayer loonies? Who can tell – you’re always jumping on the latest stupid thing.
Bishop Hill – what’s that a place or a person or what? Like come on … hahahahahaa
“And my father never discussed public funds but his attitude was expressed in how he applied himself.”
STOP THE PRESS – I missed this !
MATE – you are trucking kidding me. He NEVER discussed it but you know about about it.
WTF
Credibility now zero. Some of the greatest shonks are very smooth and lovely. You have no idea. (and I’m not saying he’s a shonk either simply your evidence base just exploded). On yer bike sport.
Luke you really are pathetic. We all know who the real fraudsters and cowards are don’t we?
Andrew Montford owns and runs the Bishop hill blog, perhaps I should have understood you wouldn’t know this simple fact.
Amazing how you accept the stupid claims and pig ignorance of Mann and Shepherd. Even a child with an average IQ would know they ( and many more )are either fools or liars, just look at that Shepherd video and you’ll see what I mean.
The sceptics are the most courageous people we have on the planet and have to expose all these lies and hypocrisy with only limited personal resources and zero help from govts and the taxpayer.
BTW I fully understand that you’re having us on and you don’t really believe half the nonsense you try to pedal on this blog.
“Do you think Flannery rang up Anna Bligh with a few ideas one night?”
So you don’t think the prognostications of the great god TIM had any influence?
“It ain’t the 1950s anymore and no amount of whinging will bring it back.”
No one’s asking for it back but don’t be so stupid as to blame the early road builders with incredibly limited funds for today’s road deaths.
“And my father never discussed public funds but his attitude was expressed in how he applied himself.”
Parents don’t have to discuss specifics with you when you observe their daily behaviour and examples throughout their lifetime.
Didn’t you have any parents?
“The sceptics are the most courageous people we have on the planet and have to expose all these lies and hypocrisy with only limited personal resources and zero help from govts and the taxpayer.” OR judge a bunch of whinging OLD WHITE MALES now retired and having a big sook.
Most courageous people – of pullease – fantasise on.
Who’s Andrew Montford – has he published anything? Pffft !
“No one’s asking for it back but don’t be so stupid as to blame the early road builders with incredibly limited funds for today’s road deaths’ EXCEPT it’s true. A major factor. Incredibly limited funds – you admit – you don’t know. What an old codger tale.
“So you don’t think the prognostications of the great god TIM had any influence?” NOPE !!! not one iota. Perhaps you should have ask Daddy how guvmint works.
Neville – I’m not peddling anything most of the time. You’re the peddler of vile and venom.
You just another old white male having a sook. It’s almost rampant enough to be a syndrome.
Think about each day you’re flat out sooking and whinging. A tut here and a tut tut there. Not really interested in anything to discuss – simply a lover of eternal old white male big whinge.
What are you going to do when Abbott gets in? Will he be hard right enough for you? What is there not enough to whinge about?
Neville – half of what sceptic blogs publish is simply libellous tripe. Most of them need a smack in the mouth for it. Santer was right ! drop’em. Then we can talk about it.
Luke you’re not worth the trouble and perhaps I’m mistaken , you really must believe and support the silly garbage you blurt out on a regular basis.
I find it incredible when we’ve seen these ridiculous half truths and downright lies over the years from supposed leaders on the alarmist side and you just airily ignore it all and instead attack the reason and logic from the sceptic side.
I’m not surprised you support the stupid, gutless thuggery from the likes of Ben Santer. It fits so well the profile of the totalitarian left when they no longer have the ability or sense to debate.
What as gutless as threatening to sue scientists to shut them up?
You don’t have any science nous – you have said yourself – no policy experience, no science experience, no idea of statistics and you dine out daily on pig slop disinformation sources. You don’t understand anything that you’re reading which is clear by now.
All you can do is parrot ! Polly wanna deny.
So Neville have you joined your slayer mates yet? hahahahahaha
so many varied and different sceptic POVs and such little time.
Luke you’re hopelessy bereft of any common sense at times and seem to say the silliest things to make a babyish rebuttal.
Meanwhile Willis has made an attempt to describe the PDO, but a lot of this is way beyond my level of understanding.
But I hope he or Bob can answer why the phases in the earlier part of NOAAs 1000 year PDO record remained locked in for such long periods of time.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/08/decadal-oscillations-of-the-pacific-kind/#comment-1330914
Anyway – goo goo – gaa gaa.
So you’re now getting your PDO advice from people who having no publications, no training meteorology, oceanography and one a self-confessed stats ninny. hmmmm
Good call.
‘half of what sceptic blogs publish is simply libellous tripe’
That’s far fetched, but we do know for a fact that the ABC has been pumping out propaganda on the global warming of late last century.
Yes, “Incredibly limited funds”
Do you know anything about the history of Qld Luke?
About the booms and busts?
How trying to build roads, railways and infrastructure throughout a huge and near deserted country sent us broke more than once? Not to mention the privations suffered by the families who lived and died at the work sites.
You really haven’t a clue how govt worked before the modern age of entitlement.
“So you’re now getting your PDO advice from people who having no publications, no training meteorology, oceanography and one a self-confessed stats ninny.”
Know any better PDO descriptions?
Or any warmers who are even bigger “stats ninnies”?
“lived and died at the work sites” !! and this is good. mmmmmmm OK. I see. Ah yes the good olde days.
Yes and you can’t tell the youth of today anything.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13JK5kChbRw Spanglers, Neville and El Gordo having a drink !
“lived and died at the work sites” !! and this is good.
Yeah, ha ha, it is.
But read the history of the road and railway camps.
My grandfather and grandmother had six kids in railway camps and no two were alive at any one time. They all died. When they left the camps they had another six who survived.
You can’t tell obtuse people anything.
Yes Luke I watched that clip years ago, a very funny fantasy. Like Cohers I’m an old Goons fan so that sort of comedy appeals to me. But then again silly warming fantasist prince Charles is a Goon fanatic as well.
In fact my Dad who would be over 100 ( if alive) loved the Goons, Monty Python, two Ronnies etc.
But those sort of over the top pommy comedies/ fantasies seem to have that ingredient as part of their appeal.
Luke, could Willis’ PDO graph be trying to tell you this:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.9/plot/rss/from:1996.9/trend/plot/rss/from:1996.9/to:2005/trend/plot/rss/from:2005/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997.1/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997.1/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997.1/to:2005/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2005/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1997.1/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1997.1/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1997.1/to:2004/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2004/trend
Neville, if we still had the Goons we wouldn’t have this AGW B/S.
Spike, Sellers and co would show it up to be the crock it is.
Someone should write a Goon Show take of AGW.
Not to mention the Two Ronnies.
The sad Greens have nobbled their replacements.
It’s the complete loss of that sort of humour that has got the world into its present sad, dreary fix.
Here’s Neddie talking to Luke:
But Spangled I don’t see Luke as the type of bloke that ever has much fun. My Dad always told me to “watch out for bloke who doesn’t seem to have any sense of humour, they are most dangerous bastards you’ll ever find.”
Here’s the list of no SS temp data from JTfacts etc over at WUWT.
For RSS the warming is not significant for over 23 years.
For RSS: +0.123 +/-0.131 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1990
For UAH the warming is not significant for over 19 years.
For UAH: 0.142 +/- 0.166 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1994
For Hadcrut3 the warming is not significant for over 19 years.
For Hadcrut3: 0.092 +/- 0.112 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1994
For Hadcrut4 the warming is not significant for over 18 years.
For Hadcrut4: 0.093 +/- 0.108 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1995
For GISS the warming is not significant for over 18 years.
For GISS: 0.103 +/- 0.111 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1995
For NOAA the warming is not significant for over 18 years.
For NOAA: 0.085 +/- 0.104 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1995
Perhaps we could be looking at a la nina developing as well?
More failure of the models and this time it gets a mention in Science.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/09/more-climate-models-fail-a-chink-in-the-armor-at-science/#more-87897
If the pundits are correct and Kev takes backs the big chair he needs to be a charismatic leader to bring off a stunning election victory
Two festering sores need fixing straight away, stealing Abbott’s wind on CC by going that one step further and stating that CO2 doesn’t make the world warmer in any significant way. So they will dismantle the tax and clean green energy thingy.
On asylum seekers, he needs to build a large concentration camp at Ord River, more like a Kibbutz, no razor wire, three star accommodation, learn a trade and language, discover our sports and general culture… then be released.
Neville, I like this one too: since 1850, is the 0.8c warming anything other than insignificant?
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/5/27/met-office-admits-claims-of-significant-temperature-rise-unt.html
Luke,
PDO, meet hockey stick:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/06/10/hockey-stick-update/
Spangled it’s true but the Met office are trying to wriggle out of it I think. I mean a slight warming of 0.8C after the end of a minor ice age in the last 163 years is hardly exceptional.
Delingpole has a good yarn about the clueless UK Energy minister Ed Davey talking to the Met office.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100220113/ed-davey-makes-the-silliest-speech-ever/
This bloke is about as hopeless as Gore or Shepherd or Mann or Flannery or Combet or Gillard or Karoly or Williams or etc.
But a very humourous post.
Did I hear aright that Flannery is now supporting that Japanese paper on more projected rainfall as a result of global warming?
Say it isn’t so!
Spangled here is a post from Bolt quoting the Japanese study at the end.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/wetter_drier_whatever/#commentsmore
But they’re using climate models again and claim the MDB will be wetter and more flooding by the latter part of this century.
But who knows what silly Timmy thinks about it? Who cares?
A mate in Brisbane asked me about the unseasonal wet and I pointed to ENSO neutral and a warm eastern Indian Ocean … creating unusual humidity for this time of year.
Here’s a recent example of what transpires.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBafFTkEOe4
We can be pretty sure it has nothing to do with AGW, but what about global cooling?
The link just came up on TWTD. This is what Flannery is saying now:
“We’ll see an increase in flooding frequency, we’ll see the number of people exposed to flooding go up somewhere between four-fold and 17-fold. So there’s just a lot more people are going to be exposed to the dangers of flooding.”
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2013/s3778263.htm
How well does that reconcile with this:
http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2006/s1844398.htm
Gosh, Timmy. We don’t want those recent Qld floods repeating themselves. Or the ’74 flood after the freak spring had the water table up to the tips of the grass. Or 1893 triple header in Feb. Or the whopper in 1841 which climbed the Brisbane City Gauge to 27 feet, 8 inches. (Er, did I just say 27 feet, 8 inches?)
Sorry. I forgot we’d abolished the past. Anyway, Timmy, look on the bright side. After the 1890s nobody could get enough rain in Eastern Oz for half a century. You can publish an awful lot of warmie-droughtie tripe in fifty years.
Well said Robert.
Luke doesn’t think this dickhead has any influence on our policymakers. He’s in denial, of course, because the Public Service is overflowing with this sort of advice nowadays and it is sending us broke.
Not to mention wishy washy pollies.
You were there were you? Pfft ! Spangled craps on all knowingly …
They’re also busy fixing up Dad’s dangerous roads built with baby killer labour. Gawd – hide your head in corn bag you old codger.
“You were there were you? Pfft !”
Well, I was actually. I worked a jack hammer underwater, in a diver’s suit, complete with copper helmet and lead boots, in the bed of the Mary River the same way they built the Brooklyn Bridge, the Golden Gate etc, where I no doubt upset some of your Ceratodus mates and my ears have never been the same since.
How about you Lukie Luv?
Ever done any of that killing, shit-work yourself?
SD, the bit about jackhammering in diving suit and lead boots. That’s quite a comeback.
Thanks Robert, it was a bit of an adventure really. I was the tender for this diver, making sure his airlines were clear and his air pump working right but it was the policy that everyone had to learn all aspects of the job so I did it for a while. Should have worn earplugs though. We built a couple of high-level bridges over the Mary R at Gympie to replace the old timber ones that the big tanks had stuffed up during the war and when I left I could have just about built a bridge on my own ☺. Learnt every aspect of the job including to dodge snapping high tension cables that tended to rip your head off. Long before the days of OH&S. Thank god.
Well Luke? Have you?
No?
Didn’t think so.
More old codger tales of how big Spangled’s wanger used to be. Gee Spangles you’re such a he-man – we’re so impressed. Anyway so you know how water policy is done do you – all that bragging time down the pub would have helped sharpen your knowledge.
More good stuff from Murry Salby. In blog comments Monckton states there will be more papers coming soon.
Let’s hope Luke doesn’t wet himself.
Sorry too much to do at the moment and my minds on other things. Here’s the link.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/10/dr-murray-salby-on-model-world-vs-real-world/#more-87921
Has Salby published yet – hahahahahahaha – it’s all tripe
You have to love these “this is it – this is the critical point” – how many years of raving before Neville realises who he’s associating with. Neville the press clipping guy. Do you ever ever read what these guys spruik? Oh that’s right as a non-scientist you’d be relying on small business experience to do physics or perhaps diving in the Mary River with no vision.
Only 4% of the CO2 swirling about is human induced… amazing fraud this AGW.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/climate-scientist-dr-murry-salby.html
El Gordo that link you supplied makes it easier for the lay person to understand Salby’s presentation.
The last 10 minutes of Salby’s talk in Hamburg is also a helpful summary. If he’s correct then all bets are off.
Luke and fellow travelers won’t like it but who cares. Better to accept whatever the truth is than promote a lie.
BTW it looks like polar bears are on the increase, just like I claimed many years ago on this blog. Probably 4 to 5 fold increase over the last 60 years.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/davis_strait_study_more_polar_bear_than_warming_scare/
The Chinese Academy of Science will accept the huge volumes of NIPCC in a special ceremony.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/12/heartlands-nippc-report-to-be-accepted-by-chinese-academy-of-sciences-in-special-ceremony/#more-88006
More of those floods that disprove the reasons ??? used to stop building dams.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/more_floods_to_wash_out_the_global_warming_groupthink/#commentsmore
More clueless groupthink indeed.
Just thought this is important enough to copy to this blog.
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK
This Blog Linked From Here
This Blog
Linked From Here
Monday, June 10, 2013Climate scientist Dr. Murry Salby explains why man-made CO2 does not drive climate change
Climate scientist Dr. Murry Salby, Professor and Climate Chair at Macquarie University, Australia explains in a recent, highly-recommended lecture presented at Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, Germany, why man-made CO2 is not the driver of atmospheric CO2 or climate change. Dr. Salby demonstrates:
•CO2 lags temperature on both short [~1-2 year] and long [~1000 year] time scales
•The IPCC claim that “All of the increases [in CO2 concentrations since pre-industrial times] are caused by human activity” is impossible
•”Man-made emissions of CO2 are clearly not the source of atmospheric CO2 levels”
•Satellite observations show the highest levels of CO2 are present over non-industrialized regions, e.g. the Amazon, not over industrialized regions
•96% of CO2 emissions are from natural sources, only 4% is man-made
•Net global emissions from all sources correlate almost perfectly with short-term temperature changes [R2=.93] rather than man-made emissions
•Methane levels are also controlled by temperature, not man-made emissions
•Climate model predictions track only a single independent variable – CO2 – and disregard all the other, much more important independent variables including clouds and water vapor.
•The 1% of the global energy budget controlled by CO2 cannot wag the other 99%
•Climate models have been falsified by observations over the past 15+ years
•Climate models have no predictive value
•Feynman’s quote “It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with the data, it’s wrong” applies to the theory of man-made global warming.
Professor Salby also explains in the 2012 edition of his textbook, Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate, why changes in global temperature control CO2 levels, not man-made CO2. Salby’s findings corroborate the works of Humlum et al, Frölicher et al, Cho et al, Calder et al, Francey et al, Ahlbeck, Pettersson, and others demonstrating that man-made CO2 is not the driver of atmospheric CO2 or global temperatures.
As stated by Professor and Climate Chair Dr. Judith Curry,
“If Salby’s analysis holds up, this could revolutionize AGW science.”
Selected slides from Dr. Salby’s lecture:
CO2 lags temperature
d13C levels have declined due to increased temperature, not due to man-made emissions
Satellite observations show the highest levels of CO2 are present in relatively uninhabited and non-industrialized regions, e.g. the Amazon, not over industrialized regions.
Net global emissions correlate almost perfectly with short-term temperature changes. d13C is inversely related to surface temperature.
Methane is also controlled by temperature, not man-made emissions.
The IPCC claims that “All of the increases [in CO2 concentrations since pre-industrial times] are caused by human activity,” but Salby demonstrates this is impossible.
You don’t even need a climate model to show what climate models predict – projections are based upon a single independent variable – CO2
Climate models have been falsified by observations over the past 2 decades.
H/T The Cold Sun [Google translation from German]:
Video recording of the lecture by Prof. Murray Salby in Hamburg on 18 April 2013
10 June 2013 | 07:30
Professor Murry Salby, Chair of Climate Research at Macquarie University in Sydney, made in a European lecture tour on 18 April 2013 held in Hamburg. Professor Salby is the author of the standard works “Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate” (Cambridge University Press) and “Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics” (Academic Press) and is recognized worldwide as an atmospheric physicist. He has attracted attention recently with new findings on the relationship of the isotopes 12C and 13C, and the development of CO₂ concentrations. It is concluded that anthropogenic emissions have little effect on the global CO₂ concentration. They were mainly a result of temperature change. This relationship was previously known only from the warming phase of the last ice age. Professor Salby extended this relationship to our current climate.
The video recording of the presentation is now available on YouTube. The opening words of the host Helmut Schmidt University are German, the lecture itself is in English.
See also our following blog posts with additional information on the topic:
•CO 2 -increase of the last 160 years by degassing from the ocean?
•Cause and effect to the test: CO 2 -change in the atmosphere lags the temperature curve today at nearly a year afterwards
Here’s more news about something that’s important.
http://www.thegwpf.org/benny-peiser-europes-green-energy-crisis/
About the 4th question Peiser answers he notes the transfer of 600 bn $ from the poorest people in Europe to richest people.
This is done because of the total fraud and con of renewable energy. When will we ever learn? Why should the poorest people suffer extreme cold just to transfer 600 bn more $ to the already super wealthy?
This mitigation fraud must be the most grotesque in recent history.
——————————————————————————–
Our star is not looking too hot, it will soon be abundantly clear whether its the prime mover of our earthly climate.
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIIF.jpg
“When we look at the experience of Germany, they have not been successful in reducing emissions; when we look at the science it no longer supports the global warming theory and when we look at the health and economic effects of windfarms and the obscene wealth transfer from poor to rich we have to ask: why are we persisting with them? I think it is a crime against the people.”
Maurice Newman (Guardian)
Britain and Europe sure need to wake up and Benny Peiser puts his case very logically if mildly in Neville’s link. However the Chinese Academy of Science is more sceptical and challenges the IPCC with extensive Heartland Institute peer reviewed work, Climate Change Reconsidered:
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/06/11/exclusive-China-rebuttal-climate-change
Lucia has a post from Steve F that is very interesting.
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2013/estimating-the-underlying-trend-in-recent-warming/
One of his conclusions is that the rate of warming from 1997 to 2012 is LESS than a 1/3 of the rate from 1979 to 1996.
This after taking into account Enso, volcanic aerosols and solar cycles. So what’s happening to the forcing from all that extra co2 in the atmosphere?
This is something from the black is white, colder is warmer method of logic and reason.
http://pubsecrets.wordpress.com/2013/06/13/u-n-delegate-a-cold-summer-proves-global-warming/
Great UN delegates/ numbskulls we have going to these climate change conferences. Perhaps Luke can interpret this for us?
Coalition will cut billions $ a year from Labor’s mitigation fraud. But still zero change to climate and temp, whatever.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/at_least_the_liberals_will_spend_billions_less_on_making_no_difference_to_a/#commentsmore
Note the 2007 – 2008 January to January dip, the steepest cooling since 1850.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/clip_image0043.jpg
‘After summer floods and droughts, freezing winters and even widespread snow in May this year, something is clearly wrong with Britain’s weather.
‘Concerns about the extreme conditions the UK consistently suffers have increased to such an extent that the Met Office has called a meeting next week to talk about it.
‘Leading meteorologists and scientists will discuss one key issue: is Britain’s often terrible weather down to climate change, or just typical?’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2341484/Floods-droughts-snow-May-Britains-weather-got-bad-Met-Office-worried.html#ixzz2WBzcNZIc
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
More conclusive proof that CAGW is a religion and not science.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/14/12-reasons-why-the-met-office-is-alarmed/#more-88104
It’s so bad the stupid Met office has called a meeting of scientists to discuss their problems. All these junk non- science forecasts were on the dry and warmer side of the ledger.
All with the benifit of their new super computer producing forecasts for inside Downing st and parliament, not for the real world where people live.
This is an open thread so I’ll link a few of the facts about Pollies being the target of ignorant people here.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_sattler_scandal_for_some_its_not_the_principle_but_the_side/#commentsmore
Not just Gillard but others as well.
Thoughtful non-ranters might consider the Monckton recommended http://rankexploits.com/musings/2013/estimating-the-underlying-trend-in-recent-warming/
Congrats Cohers …
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/
Planetary atmospheric, surface, crust, mantle and core temperatures are not determined by (and cannot be calculated from) radiative energy budgets. In fact there is a huge effect caused by non-radiative processes. But there is no physical relationship that enables you to determine the temperature of a surface from just some information about non-radiative heat transfer. Furthermore, you can tell nothing from radiation either if significant energy is simultaneously being lost by non-radiative processes. At the very least you need information on temperature gaps at boundaries, because cooling processes are slowed as such gaps approach zero.
The whole of the pseudo physics of greenhouse effects and assumed heating of the surface by back radiation (or “radiative forcing”) is trying to utilise the Stefan-Boltzmann equation which only relates to bodies in a vacuum losing all their energy by radiation without any conduction or evaporative cooling. A planet’s surface is not remotely like that.
Just try explaining Venus surface temperatures with an instantaneous radiative energy budget! There is only about 10W/m^2 of direct Solar radiation reaching its surface, that is, less than a tenth of the amount received by Earth’s surface. So why is the Venus surface about 730K and how does it actually increase in temperature by about 5 degrees during the 4-month long Venus day?
Instantaneous radiative energy budgets don’t have built in storage factors – the energy flows are balanced autonomously, but there is a lot of non-radiative heat transfer happening on Venus, and you need to understand why, or you don’t really understand what happens on Earth either.
Thanks for that Coher’s link EG, he certainly gets around. Congrats from me as well Cohers.
Luke these are Steve F’s main points.
“Here I offer what I believe is a more robust regression analysis of the same three variables (volcanic aerosols, ENSO, and solar cycle) on temperature evolution since 1950. I will show:
1) An improved index for accounting for ENSO.
2) The best regression fit is found when volcanic aerosols and solar intensity variation are lagged considerably due to thermal inertia of the system. The estimates for the influence of both (on a degrees/watt/M^2 basis) are very similar, not dramatically different.
3) After taking ENSO, volcanic aerosols, and solar cycles into account, the best estimate rate of warming from 1997 to 2012 is less than 1/3 the rate of warming from 1979 to 1996.”
So Luke why has there been a pause in warming for 15-17 years? Take your pick.
Why has there been no SS warming in RSS for 23 years and UAH for 19 years? I linked to Steve F’s post above and asked why increased emissions of co2 ( actually soaring) had not resulted in higher temps for the periods above?
Also please tell us why you consider Murry Salby to be such a fool? Why does temp increase always lead to higher co2 levels in the ice core records?
Sometimes the lag is many hundreds of years and sometimes thousands of years. Do you trust the IC records?
BERLIN—Spiraling costs in Germany for developing renewable energy sources could damage the country’s economic competitiveness and need to be scaled back, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday—without elaborating much on how.
‘Energy policy has become a hot issue in campaigning for Germany’s parliamentary elections in September, with households and businesses alike complaining about big energy bills.
‘Many European companies are also concerned that high electricity costs at home are becoming increasingly unsustainable, particularly as their U.S. rivals benefit from lower energy prices resulting from the shale gas boom.
‘Traditional energy providers have been stepping up the heat on Ms. Merkel’s center-right …’
BY JAN HROMADKO in WSJ
From Luke’s link…
‘Warming has not stopped, but it has slowed considerably. This analysis can’t prove the cause for that change in rate of warming, but any suggestion that solar cycles, volcanic aerosols, and ENSO are completely responsible for the recent slower warming rate is not supported by the data.’
Warming has stopped and we don’t know why, its a complex mechanism and I’m not ruling out geo -magnetics.
Of course temperature rise would proceed CO2 rise in the ice cores. Why would even find this interesting. I find it incredible that you can’t think this through. The reason the Earth warms from an ice age is solar insolation change resulting from Milankovitch mechanism(s) geometry.
And so as it progresses oceans will outgas CO2 and the biosphere will crank up. That does not preclude CO2 then furthering the warming effect.
How then Neville do you think you would research this interesting problem.
Want to see something different – check out the PETM.
Oh – I trust the ice age cores somewhat – but the results are from Models to some extent are they not?
I thought be now you’d have become a somewhat more complex beast – aerosols are an interesting sideline.
The Climate Commission has a new idiot…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-17/climate-commission-report-warns-emissions-need-to-start-falling/4757550
Going to war on rising CO2 is still popular in some circles, but becoming a losing battle… adaptation is now back in vogue (channeling Jonova)
‘This shift and the subsequent slight cooling trend provides a rationale for inferring a slight cooling trend over the next decade or so, rather than a flat trend from the 15 yr ‘pause’.
Judith Curry