Jennifer Marohasy

a forum for the discussion of issues concerning the natural environment

Open Thread

By

“NO one can deny that aspects of the environment are predictable. Day follows night, summer follows winter, most of us sleep when it’s dark, eat at midday and watch the 6.00pm news. Random events are for the most part whimsically quaint, as when the phone rings and it turns out to be the person you were thinking about. Oh, you exclaim, I must be psychic. But there is also a likelihood that between your and your friend’s life, some parallel pattern exists unaware to you both…”

from Ken Ring’s book entitled ‘Predicting Weather by the Moon’

Reader Interactions

Comments

  2. Neville says

    Just read that El Gordo, more good info from Bob.

    Also it seems that they’ve gone very quiet on how much warming we should expect from a doubling of co2.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/14/the-beginning-of-the-end-warmists-in-retreat-on-sea-level-rise-climate-sensitivity/#more-86251

    Looks like Lindzen, Spencer, Christy, Dyson, Carter etc were correct about negative feedbacks after a doubling of co2.
    Ditto the alarmists predictions for SLR seem to have been reduced. What a farce. The sooner we drop this delusional co2 tax the better.

  4. Neville says

    Here’s that ridiculous interview on their ABC with Connor of the Climate Institute.

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2013/s3756914.htm

    What a disgrace and embarrassment the ABC is and I note the govt has just handed over more supplementary millions $ to help these Labor stooges and promoters fund their run up to the sept election.

    Incredible the level of taxpayer funded corruption we have to endure just to try and help the re-election of the most useless govt since Whitlam.

  5. Neville says

    Here’s how that taxpayer corruption works to promote the Labor Party. These facts are from Bolt’s blog and gives a taste of the extra millions lavished on THEIR ABC 4 months out from a federal election.

    “ABC managing director Mark Scott, fresh from defending his organisation’s refusal to hire a single conservative to host its main current affairs shows, informs staff of the latest goodies from a very supportive Labor, which has run out of money for everything but its favorite broadcaster:

    I am pleased to let you know that last night’s budget delivered additional funding for the ABC in three critical areas.

    On top of the one-off $10m delivered to the ABC for news and current affairs earlier this year, we have been allocated an additional $59.4 m over the next three years as we seek to expand the depth and quality of our news and current affairs in the digital era. This provides on-going funding for the news initiatives, such as the establishment of the fact-checking unit, the expansion of specialist rounds and the recruitment of reporting and producing staff in new centres outside the CBD…

    Recognising the ABC’s expansion into digital media services, the Budget allocates an extra $30m over three years towards the delivery of these services to our audiences. Until this budget, the ABC had been funded only to deliver services on radio and television, but not for the costs associated with delivery online and through mobile.

    The extra funding represents Labor’s third election-year bribe to the ABC.

    It:

    – reminds the ABC staff who its friends are

    – insulates, Labor hopes, the ABC from some of the cuts it fears the Coalition will make to the broadcaster

    – helps a Left-leaning broadcaster to expand its reach, when Left-leaning Fairfax papers are in decline.

    But should Leftist journalists be glad? In fact, helping the ABC expand further into online services means the Government is threatening Fairfax’s very survival. The ABC is being subsidised so it can give away for free the news and views which Fairfax papers must charge for. The Age and Sydney Morning Herald’s print editions will not last long – but here is Labor helping the ABC to steal the exact same Leftist on-line audience they need to sell to if they aren’t to go broke. ”

    Perhaps the only bright spot is that it will drive the Fairfax media out of business faster trying to sell the junk science and delusional nonsense THEIR ABC gives away for free.

  6. Robert says

    Promise me there’ll be no more money going to lame Melbourne comedians. And no more angry convent girls who fume at Abbott and smirk matronisingly when interviewing Barnaby. And no more money for stock footage and tragic backing music and solemn voice-overs…all that stuff that makes the deep people and luvvies think they’re getting something better than This Day Tonight.

    Why not just use the ABC for Sheffield Shield coverage through the summer? In winter they can cover reserve grade footy and really bored people can see what young players are coming through. They can do some rural reporting, but no more commie/greenie tripe. They can still do rural emergencies etc, but without all the climate preaching and experts welcoming us to the most unprecedented record New Normal – ever!

    I still wouldn’t watch ’em, but it’d be cheap.

  7. Neville says

    I think Bolt is the eternal optimist if he thinks he would ever get an apology out of their ABC’s science ????? presenter “Robyn 100 metres Williams”.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/robyn_100_metres_williams_comes_up_99_metres_short/#commentsmore

    He’s actually more like a 100 metres short because we’ve seen little evidence of SLR since 2007.
    Just means he has even more SLR to make up in the next 87 years. At least Flannery was only trying to sell a fraud of about 30 metres. What a rank amateur beside their ABC golden boy.

  8. el gordo says

    But what about global warming? This CAGW has been deferred …. indefinitely.

    ‘Ironically, the area where the government has attempted to sneakily take the heat out of their expenses spreadsheet is its climate change and renewable energies initiatives. Its pride and joy.

    ‘It has deferred its $3 billion Australian Renewable Energy Agency program by three years, “saving” $370 million in the forward estimates.

    ‘The agency will happen, apparently, just not this side of 2018.

    ‘It has moved $500 million worth of funding under its Carbon Capture and Storage Flagships Program into years outside the forward estimates, and, in the same sentence, once again, referred to that clear case of fudging as “savings”.

    Andrew Carswell in the Daily Terror

  13. Neville says

    If high SLR prediction was a competition our OZ exaggerators would win by a long way.

    The IPCC central estimate in AR4 2007 was 29cm

    Gore/Hansen estimate was 600cm or 20 feet. That’s about 20 times higher than the IPCC estimate.

    Flannery’s guesstimate was about 30 metres. That’s about 100 times the IPCC estimate.

    But the ABC science presenter ??????? Robyn Williams 100 metres wins hands down. That’s about 330 times the IPCC estimate.

    I don’t know how you’d run a book on this until 2100, but Timmy and Robyn would have to be at extremely long odds.
    They make Gore and Hansen’s lunacy look fairly conservative by comparison.

  14. Neville says

    Hey EG the Chicago co2 exchange dropped to a few cents a tonne just before it went bust. The EU can go a lot lower yet.

  15. Ian Thomson says

    Interesting little quote that Jennifer popped up. I once was married to a Lady, ( now not with us), who nearly always knew who was calling.
    Read of a recent controlled experiment with a group of people , some in deep meditation , some not.
    They used a random number generator to interrupt them with a bell, buzzer, light or combinations of them.
    The people in meditation all reacted, every time, 1.5 seconds before the alarms.
    There are a few things that science knows very little about at all and they are often things which we all observe every day.
    Like the weather.

  16. Luke says

    And gee Neville – what do you think any policy response is based on? Flannery? Williams? We could also ponder if the rank stupidity of sceptics also makes policy? Slayers (guffaw) errrr no !

    Those embarrassing papers by Archibald – hey aren’t we supposed to be glaciated by now? LOLZ

    And that really really embarrassing GRL paper on ENSO

    Need we go on …. and now the failed drought prediction – sigh

  17. Robert says

    I estimate a big rise in sea levels…between the late 1700s and the 1860s. In the latter part of this period Arctic sea ice increased dramatically. But shhhh…

    Sea ice in the Arctic, which dwindled early in the 20th century, advanced alarmingly during the 1970s after the big temp plunge of the 1960s. Sea levels, oblivious to all this, continued rising a bit, though not nearly as fast as in the previous century.

    Of course, there’s never much happening with SLR around Oz. Dune care and sensible development restrictions are all very well…but what about Greenpeace’s photo ops after major storms? Nobody thinks of the activist photographer any more.

  18. Ian Thomson says

    Hi Neville.
    But WE pay Timmy and Robyn. Robyn to compere an ‘impartial’ science program and Tim to be one of our Climate Commissioners .
    If the Commissioner of Police directs the police force , then Climate Commissioners must direct the climate. Now it is very unfair of people to expect Timmy to still have complete control over the weather in 2100 – long after he drops off the public payroll.
    I suppose he could return ti PNG and collect more dead marsupials, make a possum skin cloak and pass it down . Thereby bestowing his spiritual knowledge on future generations of Flannerys.
    He is , after all, a High Priest of Gaia.

    Luke, policy response- before or after the ” surplus “. Already Abbot is being asked to explain , BY THE ABC , how he will balance a budget without a carbon tax.
    Now remind me . What was that wonderful, altruistic tax supposed to be for ?
    Revenue ?
    Surely not ?
    The spin is wobbling, it’s gonna fall over mate.

  20. Neville says

    Garwwwwddd even Luke is trying to bail out as fast as he can. I wouldn’t pay Robyn or Flannery either Luke but you’ve sort of missed something?

    Flannery is the Gillard Govt’s chief climate commissioner ($180,000 for 3 days a week) and Williams is our national broadcaster’s chief science presenter and has been for decades.
    So who do you think wants these donkeys to advise us on anything? Certainly not conservatives. Wake up.

    Also why did those clueless dumb Labor govts build all those now obsolete desal plants now rusting on the coastline?

    Seems they listened to that stupid Timmy when they should have been building new dams at a fraction of the cost and many times the water delivered.
    Maintenance cost per year on a dam is SFA compared to a desal plant as well. Also their ABC gave the Flannery Donkey his own show to promote his deceptive nonsense not just once but over several years.
    Once again wake up. The fraud and con is so obvious and extreme they should be ashamed of themselves.
    All of this extremist nonsense paid for by the poor long suffering taxpayer.

  22. Luke says

    “Seems they listened to that stupid Timmy when they should have been building new dams at a fraction of the cost and many times the water delivered.”

    yes but they didn’t – you’re kidding youself….. you’re confusing theatre and info-tainment and press clippings with engineering …. and you weren’t in any of the discussions were you?

    So you’re in the 21st century in an ongoing 13 year dry spell with no ability to forecast when the system might run out of water. It surpassed 1903 on all the studies of inflow. Run out of water and you’d be lynched ! there would be riots …. all arm chair criticism Neville

    Population is still growing – the next big drought might be decades away but it’s out there somewhere ….

    Anyway why pick on Flannery – he means well.

  23. handjive says

    UPDATE: “Settled Climate Science, ABoM style”

    Quote: 11 September 2012-
    Blair Trewin, Climatologist, National Climate Centre at The Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

    “Another indicator of warm northern hemisphere conditions has been a new record low in Arctic sea ice extent.”

    http://theconversation.com/northern-hemisphere-has-another-hot-hot-summer-9452

    FAST FORWARD 7 Months:16 May 2013, Quote Blair Trewin:

    “However, a number of recent model-based studies have suggested a possible link between decreased Arctic Ocean sea-ice cover, driven by global warming, and extreme phases of the Arctic Oscillation.”

    http://theconversation.com/how-cold-has-it-really-been-in-the-northern-hemisphere-14012

    THEN, Trewin blames the media. It is pathetic. The BoM is pathetic.

    OVER at National Geographic, quoting PNAS on March 26, 2013-

    “Now climate scientists are saying that Arctic sea ice—or the lack of it—is a driving force behind the Northern Hemisphere’s unseasonably cold spring.

    It’s a tough thing to understand. Less ice at the top of the world, often considered the planet’s thermostat, might normally signal warmer global temperatures, not colder ones.”

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com.au/news/2013/03/130326-arctic-sea-ice-global-warming-science-environment-spring/

    LOW arctic ice is is an indicator of a warm NH, until low arctic ice is a driving force behind a cold NH spring!

    Said Trewin, “This is still a new and active area of research, and it is too early to draw firm conclusions.”

    Settled Science? More like Junk Denial Science.

  26. Robert says

    Next big drought might be decades away? Maybe for Galicia or Ireland. It’s not like me to predict climate, but here goes: If we are talking about Oz, the next big drought is a few years away at best. I can’t prove that. I’ve just lived too long in Dorothea-land. Let hope it’s not a 1902-3 or 1982-3 special. I’m just not up to that.

    The real prob is a repeat of the first half of the 20th century, when you weren’t always in drought in Eastern Oz, but you had bad droughts and the rain deficit was always nagging away, right up till 1950.

    A cool PDO doesn’t just come round every 30yrs and get you out of trouble by pressing the rain button. We have got to get over this business of treating handy but rough observation sets as climate mechanisms. Belief in neat cycles is as dangerous as the paid hysterics of Flannery. Nobody knows what the climate will be like (except me when I predict drought soon in Oz) and that should be awfully bloody clear by now.

    We should catch water everywhere we can, and accept the cost and entropy involved. The same people who tell you dams are no longer practical are the ones who told you wind turbines, de-sal and solar feed-in were good ideas. They don’t get another run in first grade. Or second.

    Of course, if people want to stop a dam for a bit of 80s nostalgia, there’s always those barrages…

  27. Larry Fields says

    Jennifer,
    You mentioned predictability in the first sentence of your post. Speaking of the devil, I just posted an article on that theme at HubPages.

    Chaos, Quantum Effects, Supercomputers, and Free Will

    Summary: In the 19th Century, many scientists viewed the Universe as being predictable in principle, like the inner workings of a clock. We’ve come a long way since then.

    Sorry, no broken hockey sticks this time. 🙂

    LINK http://tinyurl.com/brkkq7g

  28. cohenite says

    Very good speech by Abbott tonight.

    And what did the alp come up with, another concoction about Abbott’s refusal to pair distressed mum worried about her sick kid and who, after getting the belated pairing, doesn’t rush home to sick kid who has been sick all week, but stops off to do interviews with the usual suspects at the abc and fairfax.

    This government couldn’t connive anymore if it tried.

  30. Minister for Truth says

    Yes that was a very good speach by Tony Abbott last night.Confident, sincere, humble uplifting…. and with some absolute doozies as king hits..like the number of people he has on the bench who were actually ministers in a govt that DID deliver surpluses.

    I hope that McTernan, Gillard’s head of media, and an odious and divisive pommy twit is on the first plane out of here in 121 days time.The symbology of that General patton pep talk made my blood boil…neither Hawke nor Keating would have put up with that.

    He Mcternan began life in Australia as a farcical “Thinker in Residence” in SA, plonked in there by Rann who is a mate of Blair, where Mcternan worked and help Blair lose his election.

    So on the run from the UK Rann picked him up..and when Rann also lost his head, he got him esconced into Canberra as a media adviser to Dullard.

    In a return favour the Laborites made Rann the High Commissioner to UK.

    …meanwhile SA gets left a mountain of debt that is worse than the orginal State Bank fiasco, courtesy of yet another incompetent labor govt.

  31. el gordo says

    ‘Its not like me to predict climate…’

    Why not? I predicted the end of the Great Drought months in advance, based on the cooling Pacific.

    ENSO neutral conditions over the next couple of decades would indicate the droughts will be modest and isolated.

    What’s happening in the northern hemisphere is of greater interest and I’m predicting a sharp cooling.

  32. Robert says

    EG, remember the major outward-creeping drought that came between the big rains of the 50s and 70s. It culminated in the Tassie fires of ’67. It’s also worth remembering that there were really no spells comparable to the 50s and 70s between the 1890s and 1950. There is a PDO, but we might need to watch the bugger for a thousand years or so to get a proper handle on it.

    Of course, the cold events in the NH in the last few years are interesting. (That’s if you’re not in the middle of one. I was around the Pyrenees when they had the freak cold in May of 2010, but this year’s delayed spring-summer has been far worse than that.) I’m just slow to draw conclusions. Skeptical to the end.

    By the way, I’m now engaged on translations of old climate records for part of Hampshire, where records were good for a couple of centuries leading up to the 1450s. My present bit is the period just after the Black Death, with the MWP long gone. I tell you, most of the complaints of the recording clerks concern drought and heat. It’s like they were talking of Oz and the US in the 30s. And it’s supposed to be England at the start of global cooling! Makes you wonder.

  35. Robert says

    On a subject even more frivolous than the Obama-Cook bromance – but not so likely to delight Fairfax readers:

    http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/

    The 2013 tripod is now in second place behind 1964, having beaten out 1945 some hours ago. But 1964’s record was for May 20 in the US, so it won’t be easy. Jackpot is 318, 500 dollars!

    Coolists will read something into it, just as warmists would do if the thing had fallen over a month ago. I just think it’s a hoot. Alaskans are great. They annoy all the right people.

  36. el gordo says

    ‘…most of the complaints of the recording clerks concern drought and heat.’

    Yeah, with the jet stream behaving erratically its a roller coaster ride. The Great Fire of London happened in the depths of the LIA, because of the heat and tinder dry conditions.

  37. el gordo says

    ‘During the most recent cold season, the snow extent for areas north of the equator covered a full 41.79 square kilometers. That’s a lot of snow! That breaks the old record of 41.73 square kilometers back in the famously cold and snowy winter of 1977-78.

    ‘What’s more, three out of the top 10 snowiest seasons in the Northern hemisphere have occurred since the turn of the new century. 2002-2003 finished seventh with 41.3 square kilometers of snow extent. The 2010-2011 cold season finished ninth with 41.2 square kilometers of snow cover.’

    Read more: http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/weather/weather_news/Mark-Johnson-Northern-hemisphere-snowfall-sets-an-all-time-record#ixzz2TRp27000

  38. Neville says

    Thanks for that Obama ,Cook idiocy Luke. Now I know we’re on the right side, what a pair of delusional fools.

    But good for a bit of levity and a giggle. Obama is starting to look vulnerable and silly Cook has zip credibility left after his work ? with Lewandowsky.

  41. Johnathan Wilkes says

    @ el gordo

    the snow extent for areas north of the equator covered a full 41.79</B square kilometers.

    I read the article but the numbers don’t seem to be right!
    It must be in million square Kms

  42. Luke says

    Neville you must learn not to swing at wides. Nova is such a whingy little bitch don’t you think? Whingy whingy whinge. So sour. Smile more. PS she’s also wrong. And you guys are much nicer than the all male fan club she has. And we have Debs.

  43. John Sayersj says

    No Luke – we are all part of Jo’s fan club – only difference is we have you!

  45. el gordo says

    Abbott and Hunt are dills, keeping in mind that CO2 doesn’t cause global warming. On the other hand they may simply be flying kites …. the last I heard the Coalition would win both houses comfortably.

    ‘TONY Abbott would prepare for a double-dissolution election within five months of taking office if parliament blocked the repeal of the carbon tax, under a 12-month action blueprint to transform the nation’s environmental laws.

    ‘A working draft of the plan, obtained by The Weekend Australian and confirmed by opposition environment spokesman Greg Hunt, sets key dates to merge federal departments, introduce a direct action plan to offset or reduce carbon dioxide emissions and confirms details of a 35-year Great Barrier Reef protection strategy.’

    Graham Lloyd in the Oz

  46. Neville says

    EG I have to agree, but they’re still head and shoulders over the Labor/ Green coalition plonks.
    That’s not saying much I must admit but they will get my preference way, way before the clueless Gillard dills.
    I just wish they’d abandon the useless mitigation fraud and adapt when needed and use more R&D.

    Interesting Bolt has been waging a mini war about SLR at Kiribati and has just about worn down another hapless fool and exaggerator trying to tell and spin numerous porkies over the last few days.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/lagans_last_excuse_for_saying_kiribati_was_drowning_some_land_isnt_nice_to_/#commentsmore

    This bloke would make Luke and Gav beam with pride.

  47. Neville says

    Luke that’s a spineless attack on Jo Nova. Both Jo and Jen have a ton of guts and brains and are helping to lead the charge against this stupid con trick.

    They lead the charge and do the research required with few funds at their disposal and I admire both of them.

  49. Neville says

    Great finish to Bolt’s article on Kiribati SLR.

    ” It is absolutely astonishing, and evidence that global warming truly is as I’ve described it – an article of faith, not a product of reason.”

    Boy and don’t they just love the apocalypticism they feel from this mad cult.

  50. cohenite says

    Cook and Obama; a pair of shonks; as I wrote at Jo’s:

    Lucia’s analysis is extraordinary; when a correct analysis is done of Cook’s papers this is found:

    http://rankexploits.com/musings/2013/on-the-consensus/

    The guidelines for rating these abstracts show only the highest rating value blames the majority of global warming on humans. No other rating says how much humans contribute to global warming. The only time an abstract is rated as saying how much humans contribute to global warming is if it mentions:

    that human activity is a dominant influence or has caused most of recent climate change (>50%).

    If we use the system’s search feature for abstracts that meet this requirement, we get 65 results. That is 65, out of the 12,000+ examined abstracts. Not only is that value incredibly small, it is smaller than another value listed in the paper:

    Reject AGW 0.7% (78)

    Remembering AGW stands for anthropogenic global warming, or global warming caused by humans, take a minute to let that sink in. This study done by John Cook and others, praised by the President of the United States, found more scientific publications whose abstracts reject global warming than say humans are primarily to blame for it.

    So, Cook found no consensus.

    What a little grub he is.

  51. el gordo says

    ‘…they’re still head and shoulders over the Labor/ Green coalition plonks.’

    It’s a given, the mob in power at the moment are a complete disgrace…. the days of union hacks running the country has come to an end.

    I was hoping for a little more discussion in the MSM about deferring renewable energy support. Isn’t global warming important anymore?

  52. Luke says

    Cohenite and Jo are just spewing after POTUS’s tweet ! Immeasurable damage to the denailiti. You’ll be weeks digging yourselves out and the more you bite the more we know t’s hurting sooooo bad. You could see the attack come straight on – poor lil’ woofers.

    Speaking of grubs – Cohenite would be the biggest hypocrite of all time with his sleazy non-science attacks and bullshit pieces. An apologist for sceptic crappy “science”.

    Also what a little grub. Perhaps he also an expert “IPCC reviewer”?

    31,541,507 reasons to celebrate hahahahahahahahahahaa

  53. Neville says

    So at least we know what Luke considers important. Bugger facts and science just jump with joy because some silly unsceptical plonker wins an endorsement via Obama’s clueless, vacuous online comments.

    Thanks for that Lukey, just more confirmation about your state of mind. Faith is everything and don’t worry about the facts.

    Thanks for your comments Cohers and the link to Lucia. I had read your post at Jo Nova.

  54. el gordo says

    ‘Immeasurable damage to the denailiti.’

    The 97% figure is as flawed as the models and the Potus is another dill.l

    ‘Jon Krosnick, professor in humanities and social sciences at Stanford university and an expert on public opinion on climate change, said: “I assume that sceptics would say that there is bias in the editorial process so that the papers ultimately published are not an accurate reflection of the opinions of scientists.’

    Suzanne Goldenberg in The Guardian

  55. cohenite says

    “sleazy”?

    Well, if you say so luke.

    One thing about the AGW debate is that it has shown me to appreciate real expertise not the self-serving egotism which underpins AGW ‘science’.

    So, I defer to your palpable expertise in sleaze.

  58. spangled drongo says

    A good definition of sleazy science would be quoting the big “O”‘s response to Cook as having 31,541,507 supporters.

  59. cohenite says

    “31,541,507 supporters.”

    Is that where the number comes from; I thought it was the number of hairs on luke’s back.

  62. Robert says

    http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/

    You have to refresh the page yourself, if you want to follow by the minute. The site seems to have been optimised for Netscape Navigator in 1994. To be honest, it’s only slightly more entertaining than a Melbourne comedian on the ABC…but I’m lovin’ it. And the folks in Alaska are lovin’ it. (Don’t tell them about the kissie-kissies between Obama and Cook.)

    After 95 years, the 1964 record is in trouble. 1945 is already yesterday’s toast. 2013 has two and a half days to go. If St. George and the Swans win tonight it will be a sign, surely.

  64. el gordo says

    Robert the translation of those early records in Hampshire must be fascinating. I’d be looking out for clusters of cool wet summers and cold winters, but I suspect the really bad times didn’t click in until around 1540.

  66. Robert says

    What a tripod! Still holding up, though that ice is looking a bit washy. 1964 was a leap year, so purists won’t be happy unless it’s still there at midday on the 21st.
    http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/

    EG, the Winchester rolls are fascinating, thought the basic drudgery of translation distracts from the stimulation. Somebody else will be checking more closely against CET and so on. I get lots of parallels with the events mentioned here:
    http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1300_1399.htm.
    Lots of wet autumns and cold winters, but the commonest whinge is drought in summer. Maybe that’s a south coast thing. I don’t really know. When you translate you don’t research. I’m coming up to the notorious winter of 1407/8. Now that’s going to be a doozie, surely. (Nope. Just checked forward. No bloody roll.)

    Sadly, because of the way the domains were leased out after about 1450, we don’t get the same details for the 1500s. But if you want a wheat price for the reigns of Edward III or Richard II…I’m your guy!

  67. Avatar photojennifer says

    Neville,

    I was wondering if you could put a weekly report together for us, including links to best new climate related articles/blog posts? I would post it as a new thread.

    Luke,

    Perhaps you could also put a report together, also of links to best new climate related articles/blog posts? I would post it as a new thread and/or could post it with Neville’s?

    Jen

    Jen

  68. Avatar photojennifer says

    Cohenite

    It is perhaps time for updated lists of ten worst and ten best?

    Jen

  70. Neville says

    I’m sorry Jen but I don’t think I’m the right person for such responsibility. I’d much rather continue as I am, just a random non scientist stirrer.

    BTW surprise, surprise the journos have been found out. Most are Labor/ green supporters and the billion $ plus per annum ABC is the worst. Geeezzzz who would have thought, Grrrrrrrrr?
    If that isn’t corruption what is? The ABC is funded by the poor taxpayer to promote the Labor and the Greens. Could you even dream up a more a blatant fraud?

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/anything_but_conservative_survey_confirms_all_you_suspected_about_the_abc/#commentsmore

    Time we split this corrupt Labor /Green mob and funded both left and right sides and let it rip. That means about 500 million dollars each.
    Couldn’t be a fairer way to fix this embedded Labor/ Green corruption.

  71. Avatar photojennifer says

    No problems Neville. Appreciate you sharing so much, as you do, with convenient summaries with your URLs.

  72. el gordo says

    ‘the basic drudgery of translation distracts from the stimulation.’

    Reading historic non fiction around the time should bring it alive and thanks for that link.

  73. cohenite says

    Hi Jennifer, could you email me; I have just got some new computers and I have lost some email addresses.

    Cheers

  75. Robert says

    Congrats to the tripod. Can you picture all the bedwetters anxiously combing Skeptical Science (and the Tammy who isn’t Debbie Reynolds or Sandra Dee) waiting for a suitable “consensus” explanation?

    Well, even that silly leftist rag, the Alaska Dispatch, has an explanation. Using their best florid elitist lingo, they admit that the tripod is “a striped testament to one of the coldest winters to hit Alaska in 100 years”.

  76. Debbie says

    Amazing how people LOOOOOOOOVE records and stats when they confirm their opinions but ignore them or try to explain them as anomalies when they don’t. 🙂
    Numbers don’t lie of course . . .but . . .if you torture them for long enough they will admit to almost anything.
    It is going to be very interesting watching how this ‘record’ gets explained away.
    Also amazing how a little tripod has attained world fame.

  80. NMeville says

    Amazing how leftwing looney politicians exploit the suffering of people to press home more idiocy about CAGW.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/20/us-senator-sheldon-whitehouse-from-rhode-island-povides-erroneous-information-to-american-public-in-global-warming-rant/#more-86646

    Everything this Sheldon donkey said is easily proven wrong but he is still in a rush to display his pig ignorance on the matter.

    Why concern yourself with facts when you can use BS?

  81. Neville says

    Bolt has a short post on the tornado exploitation and how idiotic and nasty some of these swines are.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/tornado_strikes_vultures_gather/

    Also he has a graph showing deaths from tornadoes. Although any loss of life is sad, many more people died in past years than today.

    In fact the deaths from extreme weather events is much lower today than in earlier periods. Both Lomborg and Goklany cover these extreme events very well.

  84. ianl8888 says

    To appear in: Applied Geochemistry
    Received Date: 3 December 2012
    Accepted Date: 25 April 2013

    Geochemical and isotopic variations in shallow groundwater in areas of the
    Fayetteville shale development, north-central Arkansas

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2013.04.013

    Warner, N.R., Kresse, T.M., Hays, P.D., Down, A., Karr, J.D., Jackson, R.B., Vengosh,
    A., Geochemical and isotopic variations in shallow groundwater in areas of the Fayetteville shale development, north-central Arkansas, Applied Geochemistry (2013)

    Impeccable authors, credentials and publishing magazine. Very recent empirical research

    Over 4000 operating shale gas wells drilled, fracked both horizontally and vertically, and operating with 127 pre-existing shallow potable water bores in overlying aquifers … no actually discernable damage to the overlying aquifers or water bores with properly formed, sealed and maintained deep fracked gas wells

    NO ad-homs or goal-post shifting, thanks – just hard geoscientific critiques … just for the Resident Dipstick

  85. John Sayers says

    Interesting paper Ianl8888 – the problems in our CSG fields is not water contamination it’s the leakage of methane that contaminates the atmosphere in the district.

    I have a friend who is a traffic lollypop man who has been working in the CSG fields of southern central Queensland and he is out on the roads at 5am. He says you can see the methane clouds settling on the ground as the sun rises.

    This morning Alan Jones interviewed a doctor who has been researching the effects of methane gas in this area. It’s an interesting story.

    http://www.2gb.com/audioplayer/9175

    Jen – may I suggest you keep the open thread at the top of the page and add new stories below it. We all tend to post on the latest story at the top of the page.

  86. Neville says

    I personally think Alan Jones is part right, part wrong on CSG. I’m with him 100% on stopping CSG drilling on prime agricultural land, because I just don’t see the need for it.

    I’m still not sure about whether contamination has been proven or not. I’ll listen to Alan’s interview with the doctor later, thanks JS.

    Of course Farmers should have the right to refuse miners the right to come on their land. If the law favours miners, then simply change the law. Easily fixed.

    BTW looks like Cook’s nonsense about 97% of studies backing AGW is a complete fraud and con. Geeezzz what a surprise, who would have thought?
    I must admit that I started to get worried when it won Obama’s support. Anything that clueless donkey and his advisors agreed with I’d be very unsure about. Simple rule of thumb.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/that_97_per_cent_claim_four_problems_with_cook_and_obama/

  87. Neville says

    What I just said above about Obama and his advisors goes ditto with bells on about the Barbara Boxer numbskull.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/21/stunning-ignorance-on-display-from-barbara-boxer-over-tornado-outbreak/#more-86714

    How can people be so ignorant of the recent past climate in the USA? Also how can they be so barking mad that they think by reducing co2 emissions they will reduce extreme events by any measurable amount?

    But most importantly who votes and keeps on voting for these morons? The only change these fools will accomplish by 2100 or 2500 is the waste of trillions $ for a zero return.

  88. ianl8888 says

    @John Sayers

    Your quote:

    “…the leakage of methane that contaminates the atmosphere in the district.”

    You’ve completely missed the point of my comment:

    “…properly formed, sealed and maintained deep fracked gas wells”

    When this is done, CH4 leakage is negligible. Certainly, close those wells that are incompetently done and insist that operating wells are properly maintained … but perhaps this message is not what some people want to hear

    The paper I linked (and an earlier one from the same authors surveying well leakage over a very large number of wells) expressly states this. As I said, no goal-post shifting

  89. ianl8888 says

    @Neville

    Your quote:

    “Of course Farmers should have the right to refuse miners the right to come on their land. If the law favours miners, then simply change the law. Easily fixed.”

    1. The State Govts OWN the minerals, not the land owners, the Feds or the miners (despite all the silly propaganda, this is the basic reason that the mining tax failed. In my lifetime, Fed ALP Govts have tried variations of this 3 times now – every attempt failed against the High Court)

    2. State Ministers responsible for Resources already have almost unfettered power to allow or deny access for mining anywhere they so choose. This is a central tenet in all Mining Acts across all the States. In practice, Cabinets attempt to balance potential revenue income against intrusion (I agree, this balance did not work with the previous NSW ALP State Govt; they simply couldn’t keep their hands off the money flows)

    It does amuse me that the populist cry “We all deserve a share of the money fow” is heard in the same breath as “Close them down”. Hypocrisy lives large. People want the products and the money, but not the process

    I should also point out that the geographical location of deposits is a function of many millions of years of complex geological processes, as is the geographical location of arable soils. Homo sapiens has no input in this, only the ability for exploitation with farming and mining. The paper I linked to examines this point of balance, if only you had read it

    So, yet another attempt at moving the goal posts

  90. D Cotton says

    Without gravity acting to restore the thermodynamic equilibrium which is stipulated in the Second Law of Thermodynamics (which says: “An isolated system, if not already in its state of thermodynamic equilibrium, spontaneously evolves towards it. Thermodynamic equilibrium has the greatest entropy amongst the states accessible to the system”) and thus, as a direct corollary of that Law, supporting (at the molecular level) an autonomous thermal gradient, then …

    (1) The temperature at the base of the troposphere on Uranus would be nowhere near as hot as 320K because virtually no direct Solar radiation gets down there, and there is no surface at that altitude. The planet’s radiating temperature is under 60K because it receives less than 3W/m^2.

    (2) The temperature of the Venus surface would be nowhere near as hot as 730K (even at the poles) because it receives only about 10% as much direct Solar radiation at its surface as does Earth at its surface.

    (3) Jupiter would be nowhere near as hot, even in its core, which receives extra kinetic energy which was converted by gravity from gravitational potentential energy due to the continual collapsing of this gaseous planet. This is why Jupiter emits more radiation than it receives.

    (4) The core of our Moon would be nowhere near as hot as it is thought to be, probably over 1000K.

    (5) Earth’s surface would indeed be perhaps 20 to 40 degrees colder, and the core, mantle and crust nowhere near as hot, maybe no molten material at all.

    Think about it! If you’re not sure why, it’s explained in Sections 4 to 9 and Section 15 here.

  91. Neville says

    Ian you said…..

    2. State Ministers responsible for Resources already have almost unfettered power to allow or deny access for mining anywhere they so choose. This is a central tenet in all Mining Acts across all the States. In practice, Cabinets attempt to balance potential revenue income against intrusion (I agree, this balance did not work with the previous NSW ALP State Govt; they simply couldn’t keep their hands off the money flows

    You’ve answered it for me. If they have the power then warn miners they haven’t got the right to farmer’s land unless the farmer gives the OK. Simple as ABC.

    Also humans in this case have the arable land first and the miners come second. Also I’m told that the arable land in question is a very small percentage so what’s the problem?

  93. John Sayers says

    “…properly formed, sealed and maintained deep fracked gas wells”

    I was pointing out that this is not the case in Australia. Perhaps this is a message YOU don’t want to hear.

    Did you listen to the Alan Jones interview?

  95. cohenite says

    Luv your BOM probability graphs luke.

    Some mates will enjoy using them as targets; what do you recommend, 9mm or air pistol; the air is appropriate but the 9mm more satisfying.

  97. el gordo says

    Just as we suspected, the Younger Dryas was caused by a bombardment.

    Luv it.

    I’ll read the comments at Watts before committing myself on the philosophical nature of this extraterrestrial encounter.

  98. spangled drongo says

    “Cohenite for sceptics I acquired one of these.”

    You need all the help you can get Luke.

    We used to do this with a Vickers MG on 12 inch ironbark but we didn’t need 3,000 rounds to do it:

  99. ianl8888 says

    @Neville

    Your quote:

    “You’ve answered it for me. If they have the power then warn miners they haven’t got the right to farmer’s land unless the farmer gives the OK. Simple as ABC.”

    Wrong again. You never get tired of being wrongo, do you ? Your deliberate density is amusing

    Miners can ONLY access land with an Exploration Permit granted by the Minister (or his delegated Deptl Head). Normally, such Permits are NOT given until a “damages” agreement has been concluded with the landholder – by “damages”, it is meant that restoration of tracks, sumps, cuttings etc are agreed upon as well as payment for lack of any land use involved in the duration of the exploration

    If the landholder withholds consent to any reasonable agreement offer, the Minister may then make a decision one way or the other. I have been in Supreme Court hearings for appeals from both sides on just such issues. ABC it is NOT

    PLEASE pay attention to the FACTS, not what you may wish them to be (there seems to be really no chance of that, does there ?)

    And also notice that you have unsuccessfully attempted to move the goal-posts twice now from the paper I linked to your own political opinions. You are entitled to your opinions but not your take about existing law. The linked paper tells you straight up that properly formed, sealed and maintained fracked gas wells do NOT impact with any measurable adversity on overlying potable aquifers. Now that empirical data is ABC

  100. Luke says

    There was something very attractive about a lady firing a Gatling gun. I loved it when she said

    “Smells good – smells like destruction !”….

    Wow

  101. spangled drongo says

    “damage being done by climate-change policies currently exceeds the damage being done by climate change”

    Matt Ridley tells it like it is:

    There is little doubt that the damage being done by climate-change policies currently exceeds the damage being done by climate change, and will for several decades yet. Hunger, rainforest destruction, excess cold-weather deaths and reduced economic growth are all exacerbated by the rush to biomass and wind. These dwarf any possible effects of worse weather, for which there is still no actual evidence anyway: recent droughts, floods and storms are within historic variability.

    The harm done by policy falls disproportionately on the poor. Climate worriers claim that at some point this will reverse and the disease will become worse than the cure. An acceleration in temperature rise, they say, is overdue. The snag is, the best science now says otherwise. Whereas the politicians, activists and businessmen who make the most noise about — and money from — this issue are sticking to their guns, key scientists are backing away from predictions of rapid warming.

    Yesterday saw the publication of a paper in a prestigious journal,Nature Geoscience, from a high-profile international team led by Oxford scientists. The contributors include 14 lead authors of the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientific report; two are lead authors of the crucial chapter 10: professors Myles Allen and Gabriele Hegerl.

    So this study is about as authoritative as you can get. It uses the most robust method, of analysing the Earth’s heat budget over the past hundred years or so, to estimate a “transient climate response” — the amount of warming that, with rising emissions, the world is likely to experience by the time carbon dioxide levels have doubled since pre-industrial times.

    The most likely estimate is 1.3C. Even if we reach doubled carbon dioxide in just 50 years, we can expect the world to be about two-thirds of a degree warmer than it is now, maybe a bit more if other greenhouse gases increase too. That is to say, up until my teenage children reach retirement age, they will have experienced further warming at about the same rate as I have experienced since I was at school.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3769210.ece

  102. cohenite says

    luke, you’re such a wuss; I bet you’ve never fired a weapon in your life; and a video game doesn’t count.

  103. John Sayers says

    I’m sorry Ianl8888 but all your paper showed was that properly formed, sealed and maintained deep fracked gas wells in areas of the Fayetteville shale development, north-central Arkansas, produce no actually discernable damage to the overlying aquifers or water bores.

    Fine.

    My concern is wells drilled in Coal Seams in central southern Queensland. A completely different geology. All evidence so far shows that they leak, there is now methane bubbling up into the condamine river where there wasn’t before. Visitors to the area immediately notice the smell. Children are suffering medical problems never before experienced.

  108. toby says

    It certainly seems to me that we need to be very careful with CSG, and a more cautious approach is required to make sure we get it right. What a disaster it will be if we end up damaging the artesian basin…and any others of course……we need some people with some real skills, knowledge and an ability to really consider costs and benefits. Given what we know about those in power (on all sides) maybe it woul be best to just slow it all down for a while?!

  109. ianl8888 says

    @John Sayers 9:35pm May 22

    Thank you for a fairly sensible reply

    Two points, please:

    1. It is NOT “my” paper, I didn’t write, publish or review it. I linked to it as a hard, empirical study of shale formation gas wells with overlying potable aquifers in the LaFayette Basin in the US. I am acutely aware that coal seams are a different geology to shale formations and each aquifer is in some ways different to others. I’ve spent over 40 years mapping just such details, world-wide

    2. The obvious inference is that such an authoritative study needs to be done here for each seam gas field, with no silly buggers about “Terms of Reference” or non-public release of the entire content of such reports. That would be sufficient – except some people would then want the study to extend 40-50 years without additional drilling or well evidence. This condition would ensure such studies were never finished

    I know the LaFayette paper upsets some political positions because it shows HOW to answer the questions. People could only object to this if they simply didn’t want to know the answers (akin to book-burning, actually)

    Do you want to know, John ?

  110. John Sayers says

    Yes I do want to know Ianl8888 – anything regarding CSG is interesting as I happen to live in a CSG area where test drilling has already been done and I pass CSG storage ponds every week.

  111. el gordo says

    Earlier we were talking about the Younger Dryas and a possible cosmic impact, but I’m now leaning towards a magnetic excursion. Abstract by Nils Axel-Morner

    ‘The Gothenburg Magnetic Excursion in a broad sense ranges from 13,750 to 12,350 years BP and ends with the Gothenburg Magnetic Flip at 12,400−12,350 years BP (= the Fjärås Stadial in southern Scandinavia) with an equatorial VGP position in the central Pacific. The Gothenburg Magnetic Flip is recorded in five closely dated and mutually correlated cores in Sweden. In all five cores, the inclination is completely reversed in the layer representing the Fjärås Stadial dated at 12,400−12,350 years BP.

    ‘The cores were taken 160 km apart and represent both marine and lacustrine environments. The Gothenburg Magnetic Flip represents the shortest excursion and the most rapid polar change known at present. It is also hitherto the far best-dated paleomagnetic event. The Gothenburg Magnetic Excursion and Flip are proposed as a standard magnetostatigraphic unit.’

  112. John Sayers says

    Debbie – I notice the basmati rice here in Dubai is different from our aussie basmati – the uncooked grain is around 8 -10mm long and when cooked is 14 – 16mm long. It comes from India and is a beautiful product as the grains remain separate and fluffy.

    Thought you may be interested.

  113. Debbie says

    We would love to grow that variety John.
    Unfortunately, it doesn’t like our soil types and yields are not economic.
    I agree that it is both an attractive and flavoursome product on the plate.
    Where I live, we grow long grain varieties very successfully but not that particular variety.