This afternoon there was flash flooding in Toowoomba.
This evening parts of the Brisbane Valley are being evaculated. Up to 5,000 people may be affected.
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“Wivenhoe Dam is above 140 per cent of capacity this morning and Somerset is above 150 per cent.
Water grid spokesman Barry Dennien says dam releases are being increased to 150,000 megalitres a day.
He says the releases are being managed to minimise the impact on already-drenched communities downstream.
“There is more water coming into the dam than is leaving the dam,” he said.
“This is what the dam was designed to do, to hold back those floodwaters and let the downstream creeks and rivers like the Bremer and Lockyer ease back before we start bigger releases from Wivenhoe.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/01/10/3109554.htm
“Mother Nature has unleashed something shocking out of the Toowoomba region and we’ve seen it move very quickly down the range.”
As an example, the premier said the river at Gatton, east of Toowoomba, had risen 9 metres in the course of the afternoon.”
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/qld-facing-desperate-grim-disaster-bligh-20110110-19l98.html
ABC News tonight quoted the releases this week were for a specific reason.
Next week, king tides are expected, and if this major rain event adds what is expected to the catchment, then next week will be entirely the wrong time to be releasing water.
This is exactly what happened in the ’74 Flood, when Somerset already at 100% with flood mitigation area also at capacity had nothing else to do but release water, and the king tide then contributed to the major flood at that time.
Wivenhoe, constructed mainly for flood mitigation is directly down river from Somerset, so anything released from Somerset flows directly into Wivenhoe. At 100% water supply capacity Wivenhoe, has a further 60 odd percent over and above that as flood mitigation, hence they must release from Wivenhoe now, as any release from Somerset adds to Wivenhoe, if you can see that point.
Even though Wivenhoe was first mooted back in the 1890’s and also the 30’s, I guess it took someone like Joh to finally get it done, after that 74 flood.
Tony.
Sorry, I meant to add a link to the above Comment.
This Link takes you to SEQ Water Latest Dam Levels and as you can see, both Somerset and Wivenhoe are fast approaching their maximum flood mitigation storage. That graph at the bottom tells a tale also.
http://seqwater.com.au/public/dam-levels
I also heard on ABC Radio this afternoon that all dams in the whole of Queensland that come under government control are at 100%, the first time in recorded history that this has occurred.
Tony.
Tony,
So far what we haven’t got that really put the “icing” on the cake back in ’74 is a cyclone that caused a huge sea surge at the same time.
At the peak of the floods on the Nerang River at Surfers Paradise the flood waters were running upstream. ie sea levels were higher than flood levels.
This situation hopefully won’t arise but if a cyclone formed right now and paid us a visit then we would have another ’74.
A plume of super-saturated tropical air has been directed over the upper Brisbane catchment last 48 hours. Things are serious for Brisbane with huge falls over the last six hours immediately upstream. The priority flood warning posted at 4 AM this morning is now out of date.
Wivenhoe is now releasing 236 GL/day as of last night,about a fifth of maximum spillway design capacity,and SEQwater has not yet updated dam levels. Flood capacity must be getting close to exhausted. This will be bigger than 1996 in Brisbane City,and is still developing.
Flash flood pulses are coming down the tributaries above Wivenhoe and water gauging is erratic,but all are on the rise this morning.
Over the last day,there have been phenomenal hourly rainfall figures of up to 60mm/hr from the upper and lower Brisbane, Lockyer and Bremer catchments and Toowooomba,including several hours of 30+mm/hr right over the dam wall itself.
85mm/hr has just been recorded from Savages Crossing,66mm/hr at Lowood,54mm/hr at Tallegalla.
Tony’s next post from Rockhampton
http://papundits.wordpress.com/2011/01/10/brockhampton-flood-crisis-images-at-the-fitzroy-river-barrageb/
and more on the floods in Toowoomba
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/
and
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/toowoomba-torrent-no-one-knew-was-coming/story-fn59niix-1225985261999
the courier mail also has good coverage
http://www.couriermail.com.au/
More heavy rainfall and possible severe storms are expected in Toowoomba today
Caboolture is next. 50mm/hr and 120mm in 4 hours to 8AM EST,Dayboro 61mm/hr.
Savages Crossing 86mm/hr to 8AM,92mm/hr to 9AM. Marburg 66 and 68 for same two hours. Mt Glorious,57mm/hr to 8AM,70mm/hr for hour to 9AM.
If you are just going to the link I posted above for the Latest Dam Levels, that level for Wivenhoe in the flood mitigation area, (that second figure from the left) has risen by more than 400 GigaLitres (400,000 Mega litres) in just the last 24 hours.
Somerset has also increased by a huge amount, and all of that release flows directly into Wivenhoe.
Tony.
More information on how Wivenhoe dam is holding …
“Wivenhoe was rising fast, but it had the potential to go past 200 per cent capacity before overflowing. Cr Newman said the dam was doing its job but could not fully protect the city because of the dimension of the floods.
Wivenhoe holds 1,728,590ML the most it has ever held and faces its greatest test as a city flood mitigation project since it was built after the 1974 floods.
The 1.45 million ML flood compartment is close to half full, with managers yesterday scrambling to increase releases from 116,000ML to 170,000ML a day as rain fell in its 7020sq km catchment. It also holds a further 1.17 million ML of drinking water supplies.
SEQ Water Grid spokesman Barry Dennien said Wivenhoe peak inflows had hit 1,032,000ML per day. Somerset Dam inflows were about 360,000ML per day.
“Considering Wivenhoe’s flood storage compartment holds 1.45 million megalitres, at this rate the compartment could fill within 1.5 days,” Mr Dennien said.
from http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/brisbane-flood-alert-as-wivenhoe-threatens-to-spill-over/story-e6frf7l6-1225985422016
interesting the mention of 200 percent capacity?
***************
And I am feeling terribly sorry for those missing loved ones after the catastrophe in Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley yesterday.
It’s interesting hearing the Met Bureau dodging all the questions as to why it didn’t predict the massive downpours that hit Toowoomba – something about not having a high enough resolution in the models…..
Well gee John – maybe something to do with prediction of extreme high end events in areas of very small resolution.
But hey you guys want to cut their funding, don’t believe in prediction, and distrust their models so what would care? If you’d like to fund 6 realtime automatic monitoring gauges and more high res supercomputing and defend why they shouldn’t have been installed at the next disaster site instead – well start talking.
OR wouldn’t the climate sceptics Plan B have the answer – gee they’ve been on about it long enough.
Cohers where’s your flood management strat plan? ROFL !
OH WOW!
All of you near these amazing events, please stay safe. Our thoughts are with you.
Wivenhoe now at 176%/2050 GL- 400GL left- at 9AM,Somerset at 161%. Super intense falls have returned to the upper Stanley River and Maleny-Mapleton area.
Helicopter footage of the Lockyer is showing awful destruction and stock loss.
BOM warned of flash flooding but do not have the ability to pinpoint super-heavy falls until the hour they are happening,John. The Bureau’s Jim Davidson was explaining why in this morning’s press conference. That’s hardly ‘dodging all the questions’,John. Toowoomba is a perfect funnel for runoff with a huge paved catchment upstream of and converging on the CBD. When RF intensities of one and two millimetres per minute hit and are sustained for 30 mins and more,there is very little warning time. These falls are phenomenal.
When super intense falls come at 5AM,like in the upper Lockyer catchment ,it’s pretty hard to warn people.
Heard a water guy on the radio saying Wivenhoe could probably go to 230%, they don’t really know. Hope so, as I live 100 mtrs from the river in Brisbane.
Plan B is preparedness, protection, response, recovery and mitigation.
So after this extraordinary flooding event they will prepare better for the next one, by adapting to our environment and reviewing flood management strategy to prevent loss of life from natural disasters.
I hope that’s so,ad. The eastern watershed of the Wivenhoe catchment has picked up 150 to 300mm since 9AM this morning.
Over 630mm has fallen at Mt Glorious in the last 54 hours.
El Gordo – same was said in 1974 – and yet we have homes built on flood plains that were over the roof in 1974.
Where would you like to build a dam in the Lockyer?
The “spillway of last resort” at Wivenhoe looks to be progressive [not level] and also looks to be collapsible so it is some sort of safety valve that will prevent damage to the wall from too much pressure so maybe the high end is at 230%.
It would be good if they could retain 200% when it stops raining but it might take a Solomon to make that decision.
The Weather Channel just reported that those houses which were deluged in ’74 will go under again. In the country town where I live they pulled all the houses down after the last big flood and its now a flood plain, but they probably won’t do that in Brisbane.
What I meant to say: they pulled all the houses down that were inundated, not the whole town.
Luke,
I’m sorry, but I’m going to give you a lecture.
You are obviously a smart guy and you have an amazing ability to track down excellent research and information. That’s great and we need people of your talent desperately.
However, here comes the lecture,
It would be good if you practiced a little humility and compassion.
While I take your point about houses being built in inappropriate areas, there were many caught in that flash flood yesterday who have not got houses in those areas.
A very good friend of ours nearly lost his life yesterday and sadly witnessed the deaths of two people because they all happened to be driving home from work at the wrong moment. They had no idea that huge wall of water was just about to hit them. There was no way for them to be warned and I don’t know if that is possible in those circummstances.
I can’t see anything wrong with discussing some possibilities, can you?
Maybe there is a place to build another dam? It would probably be worth investigating.
Maybe people should not build houses in known flood areas? Why was that allowed to happen?Shouldn’t we discuss that as well?
The major devil in yesterday’s tragedy was “mother nature”. She isn’t our friend and we still haven’t cracked the code of climate patterns and trends. That doesn’t mean we should stop trying or stop discussing it.
“Mother Nature” has proven yet again that she will flood us out, strike us out, dry us out, freeze us out, burn us out, sometimes shake us up and even blow us up wherever and whenever.
When we get taught these lessons, we need to discuss the best ways to mitigate similar events in the future. Doing nothing other than sniping at ideas not compatible with your own does not facilitate open discussion.
We also need to be careful with people when they have been the victims of these unprecendented events. Telling them or intimating “I told you so!” really isn’t constructive.
Lecture over 🙂
Good lecture Debbie!
“Where would you like to build a dam in the Lockyer?”
I reckon you could build dams on say, Alice Ck, Flagstone Ck, Heifer Ck, Black Duck Ck, Tenthill Ck and Laidley Ck.
They all drain steep, good rainfall areas on their way to the Lockyer as evidenced by what happened yesterday and the water sure wouldn’t go astray.
Luke I am ashamed as an Australian that you are showing no empathy to your fellow Australians.
While I note what Debbie says ‘You are obviously a smart guy and you have an amazing ability to track down excellent research and information. That’s great and we need people of your talent desperately.’
I don’t agree with Debbie; What I believe Australis needs is citizens is who have some experience in the sort of stuff they pontificate about and emphasise with citizens going through natural disasters.
Sorry but I’m from one of the flood affected regions and I find your remarks distasteful
Anyway I wasn’t going to give you any credibility anymore but I simply had to say that
If those dams were built,SD,they’d have to be kept at a very low level to be effective in a similar event .Maybe even dedicated solely as flood barrages. The other disappointment is that flood management policy demands that the flood reserve be lowered swiftly. In January 1974,the flood came near months end,after many places had already accumulated huge totals. We have barely begun January,and are heading into the wettest three months.
The government has advice on raising Wivenhoe by two,four or eight metres and upgrading the spillway[s],not that that helps flash flooding in the Lockyer or Bremer catchments ,of course.
Brisbane is now projected to match or surpass 1974 [5.45 on the city gauge] as water managers anticipate raising Wivenhoe releases as high as 544GL/day. Lockyer Creek is above 1974 levels and the Bremer is predicted to do the same.Rainfall intensity is still high in its upper catchment. the presence of Wivenhoe has stopped this flood reaching 1893 proportions in Brisbane.
The good news is that hourly rainfall rates have eased in most places.
luke, in his way, asks where my “flood management strat plan” is; the first part of this plan is an open mind not a mind locked rigid by ideology and a grotesque reverence for gaia as we see being discussed here:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/42794.html
Nature is not the friend of mankind but we see decisions being made as though nature will respond kindly to reverential restrain by humanity in not encroaching on its pristine form, or pursuing the witless chimera of sustainability “on this finite planet”. The only thing finite on this planet is the intellectual limitations of the Will Steffans of this world..
This is deleterious garbage. Others far more knowledgeable have commented on flood mitigation and dam construction; it is a scandal that common sense did not prevail after the 1974 floods during cyclone Wanda [which I can testify to first-hand since I surfed its storm waves off Greenmount Point], but they haven’t because of Green policies.
One point needs to be made about building on flood plains; this is not necessarily fool-hardy, after all, all of Holland is a flood-plain, but if it is not done without due consideration to climate variability, which is what the current conditions are, because of ideologically based AGW science, then more tragedy will occur.
Now there is the seed of an idea Cohenite…… bring the dutchies in.
Seriously it is so politically charged to build new dams, even to suggest looking at plans to build dams that perhaps a neutral third party would be a good idea.
There are a lot of parallels between floods and bushfires in terms of preparedness, prevention, complacency. environment etc
The ABC is closing down the debate, as mentioned in comments on Unleashed, because they can tell at a glance that half the commenters have bullshit detectors. Keep up the fight, cohers, victory will be ours.
Poly,
You could probably use smaller dams for flood mitigation in extreme wet seasons like now if you had a reserve spillway but it requires extra management.
But raising the Wivenhoe is a great idea and should have been done instead or the desal plant.
The volume could probably have been trebled without any political pain as was the Hinze just recently.
I think it is a given now that Wivenhoe and perhaps Fairbairn will be upgraded,and that the Bligh government will be politically targeted for not bringing the former project forward. There will also be money for upgrading flood prediction and monitoring,which is quite seriously needed according to my moles.
For what happened in Toowoomba and today in Tenterfield,dams are not the answer.Both towns have been hit by huge floods from tiny catchments with no opportunity for dams. New rainfall extremes are going to go into the planning book.
Luke,
For no better reason than “I told you so.”
But really to demonstrate the stupidity of your continuing position, here is my response to one of your Hanrahan type posts.
This was posted in June 2009.
Wakey, wakey to you Hanrahan Luke.
For as long as I have been reading this blogg you have been claiming some association between the Murray Darling Basin drought and AGW.
Seemingly oblivious to the historical facts that this drought is only mirroring a number of similar dry periods since 1788.
Well, guess what?
As predicted about a month ago the drought is now over!
You heard it here first.
Total storage in the MDB is similar to this time last year but importantly just double the same time in 2007.
More importantly, daily inflows have been rising for the last 3 months.
All catchments are now moist for the first time in years and it will only take a decent rain band to bring dams back to a usefull level.
I am well aware of recent press releases claiming doom and gloom. Just more and sadly predicitably misinformation.
Could we move back into dryer times this year?
Of course we could. It is called climate and largely unpredicitable.
Even by you and other scare mongers, Luke.
However I have seen this patern of change from drought to above average precipitation a number of times and am confident that we will see flooding in the system within the next 12 months.
Most experts and all the scaremongers will as usual be proved wrong.
Care for a wager, Luke.
Pikey.
Luke,
I believe you owe me.
You also owe an apology to everyone on this blog for your narrow minded bureaucratic incompetence.
Pikey.
Are you sure that Toowoomba had a “rainfall extreme”?
I hadn’t heard that the rainfall was any more than heavy as in 100 mm per hour or part thereof.
Hard as it is to believe, Wivenhoe is currently at 196%.
They are spilling water at the rate of 600,000 Megalitres per day, and I can understand how difficult that is to believe, so here’s the link.
http://www.seqwater.com.au/public/home
Scroll down to ‘Latest News’ and read it there.
Water is still flowing in faster than they can release it, mainly directly from Somerset.
Tony.
Just checking on Toowoomba’s heaviest rainfall yesterday afternoon and between 1.07 pm and 2.00 pm they had 56 mm. If you doubled that it would hardly be extreme.
The Clarence is up to the steps of the Pub and rising and it looks like it will equal the 1976 flood height – it also means that downstream at Grafton and Maclean there will be serious flooding.
Unfortunately their river height gauges have been washed away.
sorry – that’s the pub at Tabulam.
Tony,that is an amazing amount of water for such a small catchment,one twentieth the size of the Fitzroy. They say the outflows should balance inflows at 688 GL/day in a few hours if rainfall eases.
Fortunately,it does seem that rainfall has eased dramatically and the trough is falling apart from the look of the radar/satellite. Maybe Brisbane won’t exceed 1974?
SD, I mean extreme rainfall intensity,which is pretty important to flood design, 35mm in 25mm,60mm in 60min. It also seems to have been Toowoomba’s second wettest January day [after 1956] since start records in 1869.
Tony,
That’s dumping more than a dam load every 2 days plus all that water from the Lockyer which comes in below the dam, not above it as someone was saying on the telly today.
John,
Ya keeping high and dry down there?
Usually you fellers cop the floods worse than we do. Good luck!
Do froth on Debbie – it is true that we have learned little since 1974 and many houses have been built in harms way. WHY ! New homes flooded at Emerald? WHY?
And don’t take it upon yourself lovey to suggest that I have no empathy for my fellow Australians. You don’t know where I’ve been this evening. Drop off.
Pikey rants on – despite the bleatings of other cynical geriatric denialists, cranks and property right nutters and yourself – no serious climate scientist ever said it would never rain again. So don’t bung it on. The science still stands as a reasonable explanation for persistent rainfall deficiencies across southern Australia. You owe me an apology for your tedious anecdotes and ongoing misrepresentation of good information.
And fancy quoting Hanrahan – Hanrahan said we’d be rooned after both drought and flood. Maybe he knew something you don’t.
“If we don’t get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“Before the year is out.”
And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan,
“If this rain doesn’t stop.”
That was Plan B was it Cohers. hmmmmmm – thought – typical vacuous political platitudes
Indeed other information to hand is not inconsistent with a turbo-charged AGW La Nina.
Looks like the rain has had enough for the moment. The radar’s looking pretty clear.
It suddenly just petered out.
Hope I didn’t speak too soon.
We may not all be killed after all.
Wot a bugger, eh, Luke?
“Indeed other information to hand is not inconsistent with a turbo-charged AGW La Nina.”
Your trouble is you’ve always got your hand where you shouldn’t.
And BTW I mentioned this a while back and you were rude:
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/01/laptop-beats-met-supercomputer-soi-index-scores-a-win/
I used to live at 61 Harte Street, Chelmer. You can find the locality in the flood zone maps at the Brisbane City Council site.
If they are now predicting a flood worst than 1974 that puts that house more than 4 metres under.
Yet the advice for that address, until this summer, was that because of Wivenhoe dam, it would not go under by more than 2 metres. And of course there has been endless propaganda about how Brisbane faced more drought, rather than another flood.
Indeed the bureaucracy including the politicians, planners and weather forecasters, have got it mostly wrong and wrong.
PS Luke may be wrong, but he doesn’t lack empathy.
That is absolutely amazing what’s happening in QLD.
I hope there is enough warning for everyone else who will be affected tonight and tomorrow.
There is so much water!
Please stay safe if you are near any of those floods.
I’m old enough to remember the ’74 floods and the havoc they created. This one is predicted to be higher.
We had floods in our part of the system then and now too, but nothing like that.
This is an awesome display of the power of nature.
Let’s hope we learn the lessons that we may not have learnt in ’74.
The Luke combo still has face to show up?
What shameless fools they are.
Luke,
Stuff it. You are full of shit and everyone knows it.
Well, not everyone. Luke has the intellectual capacity to reach our level of understanding on the reality of natural climate change, but for some inexplicable reason he has put all his eggs in the AGW basket.
By comparison, Tim Flannery is reported to have once remarked: “Forget dams and flood mitigation programs, build desalination plants instead”.
If true, then I think he has a case to answer.
el gordo,
The full of shit part is that he/they choose to be stuck on stupid about climate, even when Australia is doing exactly what it does: cycle between flood and drought.
The interesting thing is why so many like the Luke chose to believe bogus apocalyptic clap trap insead of working to improve things for people.
the rest of it is just boring.
useful info here:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2011/01/11/brisbane-flood-maps-and-up-to-date-flood-information/
Sorry to mention something of a political nature here, but seriously, either she should know this, or the people advising her on what to say when the cameras are pointed at her should tell her the correct thing to say.
Anna Bligh said at the Press Conference just finished with the PM in the same camera shot that 2 million litres are flowing down the river as releases from Wivenhoe.
Gee 2 Million litres. Wow. That’s an awful lot of water.
Pity it’s wrong, and wrong by a factor of 107,500.
The actual figure is 215,000 ML reduced from yesterday’s near 600,000ML, and reduced to ease inflow into Lockyer Creek, and once eased there, will be increased back to 315,000ML.
The link is as follows:
2 million litres is an awful lot less than the actual 215 Billion litres.
http://www.seqwater.com.au/public/home
I would have thought something like this would have been checked prior to this. You might say …pressure etc, but rational thinking at a time like this is required, and getting things right is imperative. This only makes her look stupid.
I’m willing to bet also that the media won’t even bother to check this, because the ABC just scrolled 2 million litres across the bottom of the screen, believing what she said verbatim.
Also worth noting is that the SEQ Water site for dam levels was not updated this morning, as it is updated every morning. The only thing being updated is the page I linked to here, and no one would bother going there.
Again, sorry to be political here.
Tony.
Thanks Jen for that link; yes useful info indeed; I hope all the people in affected cities, towns and properties stay safe; losses of life and property are catastrophic. The emergency services, the SES and all the volunteers are wonderful. I did hear from somewhere (don’t know where now) that the 1893 flood in Brisbane was huge but don’t know what the BR peak was then; maybe someone else does
Hunter
I understand your angst and the frustration of communicating with people who have their collective heads in a bucket of sand. Luke is one of millions in this country who accept AGW as reality.
So our task ahead will be to convince them that ‘irritable climate syndrome’ is a state of mind and can be cured.
Val,1893 peaked at 8.35m, 2.9m higher than 1974. The Feb 1893 flood was actually three peaks in a three week long flood,the first peaking the highest on the 6th and the third about 25cm lower at noon on the 19th. Another big flood came through in June 1893!
The biggest flood was in 1841 when it peaked at 8.43m in Brisbane and 21.3m at Ipswich.
http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml
Thanks John and Poly
brisbane going under:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/gallery-e6frer9f-1225983022068?page=21
and my sister in law helping out at an evacuation centre in Ipswich last night:
Wendy is at 40 of 74 at
http://www.qt.com.au/photos/galleries/flooding-around-ipswich-january-11/#num=40&id=flooding-around-ipswich-january-11
Here is a vid on the possible outcome of the Brisbane flood.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/makeshift-morgues-set-up-as-death-toll-to-worsen-20110112-19my3.html
I must say that Anna Bligh is doing a wonderful job heading up the state during this crisis.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100071290/queensland-floods-but-at-least-the-endangered-mary-river-cod-is-safe-eh/
Ahh yes more consequences of greeny screw ball ideologies and Garretts incompetence
interesting website picked up by a commentator at Warwick Hughes blog
here’s the site
http://wivenhoesomersetrainfall.com/
the commentator says (the author claims) the Beattie and Bligh Governments were conned by the Climate Changers into panicking over the so called Climate Change induced “drought” in SE Queensland and its effects on the water supply. This resulted in the failed Traveston Dam project, the recycled water plant and the now mothballed and rusting billion dollar desalination plant at Tugun.
His analysis show that it is “uncommon events”, (300mm of rain in the catchments in a few days which appear on average about every 4 years – but sometimes longer and more severe,) which are mainly responsible for filling the dams and NOT the seasonal summer rains!
Delingpole is a malicious chatterbox,and promoting ‘Memory Vault’ and his faulty memory is just another sad example of his ‘contribution’ to rational discussion. Andy Bolt is cut from the same cloth,sadly.
Bolt suggests that the cancelled Traveston dam would have saved Gympie from flooding.
The first problem with this idea is that the dam simply would not have been finished in time for this event.
The second problem is that the dam would have been at full capacity before the recent trough dumped the last 500-700mm on the head of the Mary,because as we all know-except Andy it seems- the catchment has seen a LOT of rain already. Zero flood mitigation.
The third problem was that the capacity planned for stage one was only 150 odd GL,and on the 11/1/2011 alone something like twice that amount went past Traveston Crossing.
The fourth problem is that the proposed dam does not intercept the waters of Amamoor and Six Mile Creeks,whose flood contributions can be considerable.
The fifth problem for Andy is stage two for an extra 420GL capacity,which would obviously boost mitigation ability,was not scheduled until 2035. It would have more than doubled the surface area, destroyed more agricultural land[anybody who thinks we can blithely sacrifice productive land close to markets in 2035 is uninformed], and made more very costly disruption to infrastructure and towns
The Traveston issue has been studied deeply…and the project is not much chop,frankly. 75% of the Mary River’s flow is generated BELOW the dam,which only covers 21.5% of the catchment. The project destroys a lot of productive land and river for a shallow dam with an inadequate yield for the growing population of the region.
The early January floods at and above Maryborough were generated from middle catchment downpours around Miva and Munna Creek..well below Gympie and of course even further downstream from Traveston.
Bolt should know this before he mouths off. If he hasn’t got an hour or two to background his ideas,he should not offer them in the first place..
Val – please – would that be the same climate changers who did the work five years ago on extreme rainfall risk in SEQ. (i.e. CSIRO)
Traveston was stopped due to massive local dissent – Bligh etc being abused in town halls by local protesters. Wolfdene and Koala Hwy sunk for similar reasons. Check the roadside signs signs out at Wyralong (now built) – greenie signs – nope – locals. Rathdowney dam – again massive protest by locals.
Given population growth – water grid will be needed in the future. Indeed would be interesting to have had your view at the time (not now) on a drought in the catchment worse than 1918. Where were you?
errr 1902
Malcolm,if Memory Vault’s story has any basis in reality,how does one explain the round of dam modifications and spillway enlargements of the last decade?
“Floods are a thing of the past”…so in the meanwhile we need to upgrade our dams ability to store and pass them! Oh dear…
Borumba Dam was raised,then the spillway upgraded for the possibility of higher flows just a couple of years ago. Like wise Fred Haigh and Bjelke-Petersen….because of advice and modelling from BOM/CSIRO/etc.
And for Memory Vault to imply that the extreme flash floods seen in the upper Lockyer valley were ‘exactly’ like what was seen in 1974 is just stupid. Yes,the record is peppered with episodes of severe flash flooding events in the Brisbane River catchment from thunderstorms,and 1974s events saw flash floods in the Brisbane metro creeks,but this event in the Lockyer is the worst ever,not ‘exactly’ the same. Within the flood area the distribution of rainfalls ,intensities and timings of sub-events is never ‘exactly’ the same in any flood. Three-quarters of Grantham was not destroyed in 1974.
‘MV’ provides NO evidence for his assertion that planning responses to 1974 were derailed by advice from water experts.He should be looking at the acts of the real decision makers,the politicians of our duopoly…if he insists on immature,uninformed,premature finger-pointing.
And the Luke gang starts the bureaucratic dance, the CYA tango.
here’s the history of flooding in Brisbane
(thanks to John Sayers) http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml
now where was AGW during all those floods