A new paper has been published in GRL by Wang, C., and S. Lee, entitled: ‘Global warming and United States landfalling hurricanes.’
The South Florida Sun-Sentinel has an article about the new study here:
Scientists: Warm seas may mean fewer hurricanes
Excerpt: Following in the footsteps of an earlier study, government scientists on Tuesday said warmer oceans should translate to fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States.
The reason: As sea surface temperatures warm globally, sustained vertical wind shear increases. Wind shear makes it difficult for storms to form and grow.
“Using data extending back to the middle 19th century, we found a gentle decrease in the trend of U.S. landfalling hurricanes when the global ocean is warmed up,” Chunzai Wang, a physical oceanographer and climate scientist with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, said in a prepared statement.
The Abstract of the paper states:
A secular warming of sea surface temperature occurs almost everywhere over the global ocean. Here we use observational data to show that global warming of the sea surface is associated with a secular increase of tropospheric vertical wind shear in the main development region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. The increased wind shear coincides with a weak but robust downward trend in U.S. landfalling hurricanes, a reliable measure of hurricanes over the long term. Warmings over the tropical oceans compete with one another, with the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans increasing wind shear and the tropical North Atlantic decreasing wind shear. Warmings in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans win the competition and produce increased wind shear which reduces U.S. landfalling hurricanes. Whether future global warming increases the vertical wind shear in the MDR for Atlantic hurricanes will depend on the relative role induced by secular warmings over the tropical oceans.
Received 18 October 2007; accepted 13 December 2007; published 23 January 2008.
Keywords: global warming; Atlantic hurricanes; climate variability.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
I’m confused. Is the paper suggesting that the Atlantic will become calmer, but the Pacific less pacific? That’s what I’m getting out of the trade-off between the wind shear over the oceans, but maybe I’m missing something.
Graham, the article does start with the fact that the oceans are warming. Beyond that you can be more confused, but less worried if you could just be a bit more selective on the evidence. Get the drift. Why not move to Florida . Psychologists suggest first the bad news, then the good. So its conditional, as the article says if the ocean is warming, and you live in the USA then relax, less wind shear, fewer hurricane landfalls. Too bad for the less developed countries around the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
And to think it used to be ‘Tis the rich what gets the pleasure and the poor what gets the blame.’Now the rich get the pleasure, deny the blame, and avoid the pain’. This article will invoke ever more bizarre stuff.
Don’t worry bazza, refugee definitons exclude all those people, so as long as we can get our material needs cheap and sail around them, no worries. They’ll die out and we’ll claim survival of the fittest
So, hurricanes don’t originate in chimney stacks – I guess Al Gore could now claim his graphic shows hurricanes entering rather than leaving the chimney stack!
Paul, do your sums. Your lifestyle ( so called) and mine have a CO2 legacy. Your name is on more than your fair share of the CO2 up there. I have sat on a high balcony at the Hilton in Addas at dusk and seen and smelt the pall from a millon home fires burning a little eucalyptus for the evening meal. But no big chimneys. It is sad and appalling if you are suggesting that less developed countries contributed in other than a very minor way to AGW. I would not be suprised if the numbers show their current contribution is about in proportion to their GDP of around a dollar a day in some of the poorest.
Interesting article. It had been mooted that a greenhouse world may have faster longer lived hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones but less of them. Seems perhaps seems intuitively reasonable but as the post-Katrina debate has shown there is more to tropical storms that just sea surface temperatures.
But if wind shear in the future prevents their formation – what energy release does the ocean have? Hurricanes currently acting a circuit breaker in some respects. Do Los Ninos and Las Ninas become more powerful. Does the ocean capacity as a CO2 sink reduce further if the oceans stay warm?
Bazza – CO2 is harmless gas that contributes to the greenhouse effect – and the enhanced greenhouse effect has not been shown to drive climate or cause ‘big warming.’ In fact CO2 hasn’t been shown to drive climate, period.
CO2 will continue to be emitted from heating,cooling, lighting etc in our homes, by transport and industry – until we have a viable alternative.
What you are suggesting merely moves emissions rather than reducing them.
Well Royer and a few assorted paleo events would suggest otherwise. One size doesn’t always fit all though.
I want a $1 for every time I read “may” in relation to future climate. And $5 for every time I read “will”.
Dunno if I’d make as much as Gore but I think I’d be comfortable.