The UK has two long temperature series. The Central England Temperature series is the world’s longest series; the monthly mean begins in 1659, in the depths of the Little Ice Age. The series represents a roughly triangular area of the United Kingdom enclosed by Bristol, Lancashire and London. The Met Office predicted 2007 would be a record, beating the previous annual mean record of 10.82C set in 2006. In fact, the mean for 2007 was 10.48C, the same as 2004 and 1959, but lower than 1949, 1989, 1990, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2002, 2003. The Met Office are being more cautious with their 2008 prediction, saying it will most likely be in the top 10 of recorded temperatures.
Armagh Observatory in Northern Ireland is home to a temperature series begining in 1795. In contrast to the CET, 2007 was a record year:
2007 Warmest Year on Record at Armagh
Meteorological measurements taken at the Armagh Observatory show that, despite a relatively poor summer, 2007 continued the warming trend seen in recent years. With an average temperature of 10.6 degrees Celsius, 2007 ranks as the hottest year on record, beating the previous record, 2006, by 0.15 degrees. Six of the warmest years at Armagh in the last 212 years have occurred in the last decade.
Last year’s average temperature was 10.6 degrees Celsius. This is to be compared with the 30-year average (1961-1990) of 9.24 degrees, itself nearly 0.2 degrees warmer than the average of 9.05 degrees since daily temperature measurements began at Armagh in 1795. Over approximately the last thirty years, the mean annual temperature at Armagh has increased at an average rate of 0.06 degrees per year, mirroring the warming trend seen from around 1920 to 1950.
A number of other temperature records emerge from the 2007 observations. The third coolest June day on record occurred on 15th June 2007. But it was the warmest April on record (mean monthly temperature 11.2 degrees) and a warmer spring than average. November 2007 was the fourth mildest on record, with a mean monthly temperature of 8.8 degrees.
There is also an interesting published paper from Armagh entitled ‘TRENDS AND CYCLES IN LONG IRISH METEOROLOGICAL SERIES’
Armagh Observatory scientific publications and reprints are here.
I may revisit both temperature series as 2008 progresses, and at the end of 2008.
Jennifer Marohasy BSc PhD is a critical thinker with expertise in the scientific method.
Paul writes:-
“I may revisit both temperature series as 2008 progresses, and at the end of 2008”
Paul with what objective? Are these regional temp series of any real use other than inputs into the overall global picture. That is collectively they might meam something but individually…?
Just interesting to see how the 2 series compare, and where 2008 will sit in the record books.
I must prefix my comments here with the caveat that I have (obviously) no special qualifications in this area and I realize that the statistics from one site are of limited merit anyway but…..
….the Armagh Observatory is in a part of the world that has a long history of intellectual enquiry, but has escaped (until recently) the economic and industrial development that brings increased population density and all that goes with it, thereby escaping the ‘urban heat island syndrome’.
The temperature series graph (1840 – 2000+) – Fig 2 on page 10 – to me, shows absolutely no obvious trend whatsoever.
http://star.arm.ac.uk/preprints/2007/494.pdf
Interesting stuff Paul, and being of at least 2/3 Irish heritage I was curious to discover the Irish had a scientific road to knowledge as well as all the other wonderful ways by which the Irish have made a unique contribution to the world. Who else but Oscar Wilde could have called fox-hunting ‘the unspeakable after the uneatable’?.Sounds like a theory chasing data that fits. What would he have said about you feeding the critters.? And then there was Yeates (W.B.)’the best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity’. How better to explain and contrast the genuine scepticism of the best scientists. By the way, how come the AGW sceptics aren’t more sceptical.? Anyway my faith in Irish magic and mystery beyond mere numeracy was restored when my research revealed that Armagh Observatory was a child of the Church of Ireland, and more or less an outpost of Greenwich. And they were big on solar research. So your threat to revisit might even throw up another rich mother lode of data to mine to support some desperate hypothesis or other.
The only Armagh stats that interest me are the soil temperatures thath show unequivocal warming over the measurement period.
Both 30cm and 100cm depths show the same trend too.
Given that the measuring probes haven’t been moved or landuse changed, then this result simply means that the solid earth increased in temperature. As the atmosphere is in thermal equilibrium with the solid bit it envelopes, it comes as no surprise that it too might show an increase in temperature.
So what caused the soil temperatures to rise over time?
Can’t blame it on radiogenic element decay over time since that process diminishes over time.
Oh, I know, we humans are burning oil and coal and that heats up the air which in turn heats up the mass of earth under it, or so Ender and his mates would believe.
Me? Well I would look at the homopolar motor effect that drives the earth’s rotation, and since electric currents passing through resistive loads generate heat, I would wonder if there is a connection in this area.
It is a new area of scientific enquiry of which little is known or published, but such is the nature of empirical science where nature continues to throw up unexpected condrums to patronise arrogant humanity.
Bazza – I admire the Armagh Observatory because, unlike the Met Office, it doesn’t indulge in global warming propaganda and it’s a more rural temperature series with a slightly different trend to the more urbanised CET. Some interesting Palle and Butler papers have come out of there.
Louis – I did mention the Armagh soil temps to Pielke Sr a while back, which he found very interesting, but he didn’t come back with a possible explanation. Someone suggested microbial activity, but I doubt that. Butler et al say:
It is important to note that soil temperatures at both 30cm and 100cm in Armagh have over the past century, increased about twice as fast as air temperature over the same period. This is particularly evident in spring, summer and autumn. Whilst soil temperatures in winter closely parallel air temperature, in other seasons
they are also affected by rainfall. The dependence is complicated but, in general, increased precipitation leads to increased evaporation and a fall in soil temperature. Thus the decrease in summer rainfall since the
1970s may be partly responsible for the exceptional increase in soil temperature in this season later in the century as compared to earlier when summer rainfall was higher.
“Me? Well I would look at the homopolar motor effect that drives the earth’s rotation, and since electric currents passing through resistive loads generate heat, I would wonder if there is a connection in this area.”
Louis, you should try stand up.
Bazza – Re; feeding foxes – about 100,000 foxes are killed on the UK roads each year (plus 50,000 badgers and 45,000 deer).
Bazza, I’m greatly impressed by your erudition.
Yeats was a snob and millenarianist and if he was alive today, I reckon he would have been a fervent AGW devotee.
Your Wilde misquote lacks the potency of the original: “the unspeakable in full pursuit of the uneatable.”
Paul Biggs,
Thanks for that clarification re the soil temperature data. Pielke Snr would not answer as he wouldn’t have any data on it, and I suspect few would in that area of science.
Croll (Prof of Civil Engineering at Uni College of London has published interesting papers about the earth’s thermal state, the solid bit, not the gas, so it’s an area of high interest).
SJT,
I remain amazed how you neanderthals manage to grasp some aspects of science among the bones and twigs of the mess you call home to post the semi-literate crap here.
SJT,
insults apart, but how would you explain how the earth manages to maintain its axial motion in the absence of a mechanical forcing.
Louis, desperate spin that homopolar disorder. That must explain why the moon is cool.?
Thanks Chrisgo on commenting on my near-erudition, Oscar W should not be misquoted. One should check late night quotes but I am a bit intuitive even impulsive, near enough if not peer reviewed. And I do half-appreciate your position on AGW on only accepting the firm evidence you can check for yourself. No room for ambiguity there. But risk managers thrive on it. For example global warming is accepted as a factor in the rainfall decline in SW Western Australia but you have suggested a while back it hasnt crossed the Nullabor because it does not meet some arbitary statistical test?
Bazza, stop playing with it, unless it’s SJT